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									      Texas Poverty:
Newest Data, Latest Thinking
                January 15, 2010


  Eva DeLuna Castro              Frances Deviney
 Senior Budget Analyst      Senior Research Associate

                   Celia Hagert
               Senior Policy Analyst
                Overview
•   What is poverty?
•   Latest data
•   Problems with poverty measure
•   Poverty and public assistance
•   Policy recommendations
    Texas Poverty 101




www.cppp.org/research.php?aid=96
            What is Poverty?
The Idea of Poverty – a condition of deprivation
          What is Poverty?
Quantifying Poverty - technical meaning

•   how many people
    are officially poor



•   define who is eligible
    for public assistance
        What is Poverty?
• Originally designed to reflect the
  minimum amount of income that
  American households need to subsist

• Poverty = 3 x cost of food per family size
  – Circa 1960s


• Updated annually for inflation
  Federal Poverty Guidelines
Family
Size                    2007                   2008              2009
   2             $13,690 $14,000 $14,570

   3                17,170                 17,600               18,310

   4                20,650                 21,200               22,050

         Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
     Full-time Work at Minimum Wage ($14,500)
   Doesn’t Lift Texas Families Above Poverty Line
                                                                $22,050
           100% FPL
           Minimum Wage                 $18,310

           $14,570         Minimum
                          wage $70
                          shy of FPL
                          for Family
                              of 2
                99% FPL




                                           79% FPL




                                                                    66% FPL
         Family of 2                   Family of 3           Family of 4
Minimum wage = $7.25 per hour as of July 24, 2009. Full-time work = 2,000 hours per year.
How are Texans Faring?

   Better, but still not great.
 Texas Poverty Rate Improves, But Doesn't Yet
     Reflect Recent Economic Downturn
                                        17.6%*
Texas                                                16.9%*
               16.3%       16.6%*                                  16.3%*
    15.6%                                                                   15.8%
                                        15.7%
                                                     15.2%
                                           TRAVIS                  14.7%      14.8%
    14.8%      14.0%
                         12.6%
U.S.
                           13.1%        13.3%        13.3%                  13.2%
               12.7%                                               13.0%
    12.4%



       2002     2003        2004         2005         2006         2007     2008
                  * Indicates a significant difference from 2008


  Source: One-year estimates from American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau.
TX Unemployment Jumps in Late 2008
 Monthly Unem ploym ent Rate (%),
 Seasonally Adjusted

12.5
                               Travis
10.0                           Texas
                               U.S.
 7.5


 5.0


 2.5                                                   Current poverty data
                                                       from this time period

 0.0
   Jan '06 May '06 Sep '06 Jan '07 May '07 Sep '07 Jan '08 May '08 Sep '08 Jan '09 May '09 Sep '09




                           Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Predictions Based on Recession Impact
  Texas rate (%)
 18                                                                                 16.9%

 15


 12                Poverty
                 (Census CPS)

 9
                                                                                     7.0%
 6


 3
                                                      Unemployment
 0
        1995      1997       1999      2001       2003      2005       2007       2009      2011

                                                                                  Forecast

      Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Comptroller Winter 08-09 Forecast; Census Bureau CPS.
  Texas 43rd Worst Rate of Total Population in Poverty
                             TX = 15.8%; U.S. = 13.2%




Source: 2008 American Community Survey, map from KIDS COUNT Data Center, www.kidscount.org/datacenter
In Texas and in Travis County, Hispanics and African
   Americans Much More Likely to Live In Poverty

Travis County Poverty Rates for 2008:

                                   25.5%
                                                                      22.7%
                  20.9%


                                                   14.7%


  9.1%




White, Not     Hispanic (any      African           Asian             Other
Hispanic           race)         American


         Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Vast Majority of Poor Travis County Residents
               are U.S. Citizens



                   Non-citizens,
                   29,390 (20%)




                               U.S.
                             Citizens,
                             114,946
                              (80%)




     Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Travis County Poverty Rates by
        U.S. Citizenship
                                                       29,390
     Born-in-U.S.-citizen poverty rate:
      TX is 41st worst among states
                                                        28%

  144,336
                           114,946
  14.8%                      13.6%




Total Poverty             Citizens only             Non-Citizens



    Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
 Metro Poverty Rates Highest in Border Area
                      Texas                     15.8                  22.5%             Children
                    Abilene                                        22.0
                                                 16.1
                                                                 20.3
                                                                                        All residents
                    Amarillo                    15.4
         Austin-Round Rock                              15.6
                                          12.8
       Beaumont-Port Arthur                                               24.7
                                                15.4                                               45.8
       Brownsville-Harlingen                                                     34.7
       College Station-Bryan                                        22.9
                                                                  25.3
              Corpus Christi                                          24.3
                                                   17.3
         Dallas-Plano-Irving                                   19.1
                                           13.2
        Fort Worth-Arlington                              16.8
                                         11.7
                    El Paso                                                              35.9
                                                                   25.5
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown                                       20.0
                                           13.6
     Killeen-Temple-Ft. Hood                                       21.7
                                            13.9
                     Laredo                                                              36.2
                                                                      26.9

                  Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
2008 Metro Poverty Rates, continued
           Texas                       15.8                   22.5%               Children
        Longview                               15.9
                                  13.8                                            All residents
         Lubbock                                16.4
                                      15.0
 McAllen-Edinburg                                                                            46.0
                                                                           35.2
         Midland                8.4
                         7.1                 17.1
          Odessa                      14.5
      San Angelo                                    17.9
                                12.3
      San Antonio                                            22.6
                                        16.0
 Sherman-Denison                                    18.3
                               11.3
       Texarkana                                                      28.3
                                               19.8
            Tyler                                     19.0
                                12.6
          Victoria                                           22.4
                                      15.1
            Waco                                                    26.5
                                               20.5
       Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
          1 in 7 Travis County Residents Are Poor
       Children Under Age Five 1.5 Times as Likely to Live in
                 Poverty than Working-Age Adults

                                                         TX: 43rd worst among
                                                       states for child poverty;
                         21.6%                          44th for elderly poverty

                                         17.9%

         14.8%
                                                         13.8%



                                                                           7.7%




        All ages          0-4            05-17           18-64             65+

Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau Census Bureau
               Source: 2008 American Community Survey, U.S.
    “Early disadvantage, if left
 untouched, leads to academic and
social difficulties later in life. Early
advantages accumulate, just as early
         disadvantages do.”

   Heckman & Masterov, as cited in ―Early
    Childhood Education for All: A Wise
               Investment‖
    Over Half (57%) of Texas’ 4.7 million Public
   School Kids Are Economically Disadvantaged

  Local ISD’s Percent of Students who are Economically Disadvantaged

Austin ISD                                62.7
                                                              Economically
                                                              Disadvantaged =
Pflugerville                      44.4
                                                              Kids who are
                                                              eligible for free
                                                   81.4       (below 130% of
  Del Valle
                                                              poverty) or
                                                              reduced-price
     Manor                                       75.4         lunch (130%-
                                                              185% of poverty)

     Eanes     2.5



               Source: 2008-09 Enrollment Data, Texas Education Agency
                                GAPS IN ACHIEVEMENT:
           Fewer Travis County Economically
        Disadvantaged Kids Pass the TAKS Tests
                       Economically Disadvantaged      Non-Economically Disadvantaged




                                                               96%




                                                                               96%
                 94%




                                                                                              92%
                                                88%
                                88%




                                                         85%




                                                                         85%
           78%




                                                                                        73%
                          66%




                                          63%




          Reading          Math          Science         Social         Writing        Average
                                                        Studies                      Passing Rate

Source: Percent Students Passing Across Grades Within Each Test, 2009 TAKS data, Texas Education Agency
                              GAPS IN ATTAINMENT:
Travis County Economically Disadvantaged and
Minority Students Have Higher Drop Out Rates

                      20.7%




                                                        18.5%
                                       17.0%
      11.8%




                                                                         4.2%




                                                                                          3.6%
 Overall Rate   Econ. Disadv.       African         Hispanic           White        Asian/ Pacific
                                   American                                           Islander


   Source: Class of 2008 four-year longitudinal dropout rate within group, Texas Education Agency
                                                           GAPS IN EARNINGS:
                                         Nearly One of Every Three Travis County
                                              H.S. Dropouts Lives in Poverty
                                            29%
Percentage within each education level




                                                               13%

                                                                                      8%
                                                                                                             3%
                                         Less than H.S.   H.S. Grad (includes          Some           Bachelor's degree or
                                                             equivalency)       college/Associate's         higher
                                                                                      degree


Source: Table C17003, Adults 25+ yrs, 2008 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
                  What’s Wrong With
                 the Poverty Measure?

• Significant shifts in household expenses since
  1960s
   • No measurement of other household costs
   • Varying rates of inflation for specific expenditures

• Taxes and benefits not included
• No provision for geographic variation*
• No accounting for change in standard of living

*Except for Hawaii and Alaska
Monthly Costs for Single-Parent, 2-Child
    Family in Austin-Round Rock



     $198-646                   $836                    $841




      $356                      $339                      $288

Total Monthly Expenses = $2,857 - $3,374
      Source: Family Budget Estimator, CPPP, www.cppp.org/fbe
       Necessary Income for
  Single-Parent, 2-Child Family in
        Austin-Round Rock

• Hourly = $18 - $22/hour

• Annual = $35,611 - $44,124
  – 207% to 257% of poverty line

      Source: Family Budget Estimator, CPPP, www.cppp.org/fbe
  Using FBE budgets for single-parent, 2-child
   families in Austin-Round Rock . . .


           56% to 65% can’t cover expenses!




Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s 2006 American
Community Survey data compared to CPPP’s Family Budget Estimates.
             Public Assistance Programs Not an
             Option for Many Working Families

                                  Texas Eligibility for Family Support Programs, 2009
                                  Dollar amounts: Annual income levels for a family of three
                                                                                   $42,703
                                                                                                      Full-time minimum w age: $14,500
                                                                                  243% FPL
   $33,874              $33,874                                                                                     per year
                                                                                                               (80% of poverty)

                                                                                                      $27,465
   185% FPL            185% FPL            $23,803             $23,803




                                                                                                      150% FPL            $2,256
                                           130% FPL            130% FPL
                                                                                                                          12% FPL

       WIC          Reduced-Price         Free School        Food Stam ps      Max. Child Care       Typical Child       TANF Cash
                     School Meals            Meals              (SNAP)                                   Care           Assistance*

* Income limit show n is for applicants. Once on TANF, some families w ith earnings disregards and other allow ances for w ork-related expenses
can have higher incomes yet continue to receive some cash assistance.




        Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture; Texas Workforce Commission; Texas HHSC
        Public Health Insurance More of an
       Option for Children, Elderly, Disabled
                  Income Caps for Texas Medicaid & CHIP, 2009
                          Percent of federal poverty line ( % )

Pregnant Women &                     133                          185             $33,874
    Newborns

        Ages 1 to 5                  133                                          $24,352   Annual
                                                                                            income
       Ages 6 to 18            100                                                $18,310   limits:
                                                                          150
                       12.3                                             percent             For a family of
  TANF Parent of 2,                                                                $2,256
    No Income                                                              of               three in child &
                                                                        poverty             parent
Working Parent of 2     20.2                                                       $3,696   categories;

       SSI (aged or                                                                         for SSI & Long-
                                74                                                 $7,884   Term Care,
        disabled)
                                                                                            income cap is
   Long-Term Care                                                          222    $24,264   for one person.


               CHIP                                                      200      $36,620

                               Federal Minimum                    State Option


                                               Source: Texas HHSC
         Many Texans Do Qualify for
       Assistance But Do Not Receive It
                            Eligible        Receive Assistance               26%
                                                                                   24%
               23%




                                                 16%

                                                       12%
                     11%
10%                             9%


                                                               4%
      2%                               2%
                                                                    1%


Housing       Food Stamps      Child Care       Children's     TANF            EITC
                                               Medicaid/CHIP




      Source: Bridging the Gaps Project, Center for Economic and Policy Research
               Texas Low-Income Children vs.
                  Served by “Safety Net”

Millions of Texas children under 19
 3.5
                                                                                 Medicaid or
 3.0                                           Children living from              CHIP
                                                  100 to 200% of
 2.5                                                                             Medicaid
                                                     poverty
 2.0

 1.5                                                                             Food Stamps

 1.0
                                                              Children below     AFDC/TANF
 0.5                                                          100% of poverty

 -                                                                               SSI
        1995          1997            1999   2001     2003      2005      2007



Source: Texas Kids Count; Texas Health and Human Services Commission; March CPS (FERRET)
Increase Economic
    Opportunity
Increase Economic Opportunity
• Increase H.S. & post-secondary completion
• Support 2009 Tax Season EITC Outreach
• Support Unemployment System
  modernization reforms
• Bank on Central TX
  – Work w/ employers to set up and encourage
    direct deposit
• Restrict/eliminate payday lending
  – Introduce/support ordinances & resolutions at
    local level
Improve Safety Net
   Access to health
 insurance – Private
  & Public Coverage
  National Health Care Reform
• Best opportunity to ensure access to
  affordable, comprehensive health
  insurance for low-income families.
• House and Senate bills are being merged
  right now!
• Call your members of Congress today.
• www.contactingthecongress.org/
   National Health Care Reform –
            Call to Action
1. Improved affordability provisions (premium
   subsidies and protections from high
   deductibles and co-payments).
2. A strong national health insurance
   exchange (where the uninsured will buy
   coverage) that can negotiate with insurers
   to deliver better value.
3. Increase in Medicaid primary care fees to
   Medicare levels.
4. Medicaid expansion to 150% FPL (House).
   National Health Care Reform –
       Implications for Texas
• Medicaid expansion likely to add 1 million
  adults to Texas Medicaid, starting in 2013
  or 2014.
• Groundwork needs to be laid today for
  eligibility system capacity, provider
  network capacity, and fiscal capacity.
    National Health Care Reform –
         For more information
• CPPP analysis:
  www.cppp.org/research.php?aid=940
• Connect with Texas Voice for Health Reform
  (www.texasvoiceforhealthreform.org) for the
  latest actions/information on health reform.
• Watch CPPP/TVHR for consumer-oriented
  health reform implementation conferences in
  2010
Improve Safety Net
  Eligibility System,
  Nutrition & Cash
      Assistance
SNAP Recipient Growth from
  Dec. 2008 to Dec. 2009
                                       109,279


 3 million

                                         54%

   28%


  Texas                                 Travis
   Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
Texas Failing to Process More and More SNAP
   (aka Food Stamp) Applications on Time
                                                              41%    41%    43%
                                                      39%
                                               37%




                                                                             73,460
                                        33%

                                27%
                  24%
          22%            21%
   19%




   Jan     Feb    Mar    Apr    May     Jun    Jul    Aug    Sept    Oct    Nov



 Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission, 2009 Monthly Timeliness Reports
Improve Safety Net: Short-term
• Join the newly formed Texas Food Policy
  Roundtable
  – Organizational mtg, Wed., Jan. 20, State
    Capitol, Legislative Conference Room
    (E2.002)
• Help needy families navigate the SNAP
  (Food Stamp) enrollment process by
  funding application assistance.
• Support eligibility system reforms (policy
  simplification, new resources for staff,
      Improve Safety Net: TANF
           reauthorization
• TANF only reaches 6% of poor children: limited
  assistance, strict eligibility limits and punitive
  rules.
  www.cppp.org/research.php?aid=921&cid=3&scid=1
  2
• Advocate for reforms during 2010
  reauthorization by Congress.
• www.clasp.org/admin/site/publications/files/TAN
  F-Reauthorization-Goals.pdf for analysis of
  needed reform and goals for reauthorization.
Improve Safety Net: Child Nutrition
• Support child nutrition legislation in
  Congress by educating Central Texas
  Congressional delegation about
  importance of school meals, WIC, after-
  school snacks, and summer feeding
  programs.
• www.frac.org/Legislative/action_center/cur
  rent_childnutrition_bills09.htm for current
  updates and advocacy tips.
  Improve Safety Net: 2011 Texas
        Legislative Session
• Advocate for policy changes to simplify
  SNAP enrollment, i.e., eliminate finger
  imaging rule and asset test.
• Advocate for SNAP policy changes to
  eliminate ban on benefits for former drug
  felons, eliminate time limits for childless
  adults, make participation in employment
  and training program voluntary.
  Improve Safety Net: 2011 Texas
        Legislative Session
• Advocate for Summer Food/School
  Breakfast expansion.
• Advocate for adequate staff/resources for
  HHSC eligibility system.
• Support anti-obesity (food & fitness) and
  access to healthy foods (schools &
  communities) legislation.
  www.partnershipforahealthytexas.org
         Revenue/Funding
• Actively support Texas revenue reforms—
  adequacy and fairness—WITHOUT
  WHICH each session will continue to
  threaten cuts to key safety net programs
  and allow little or no possibility of new
  investments!
• Short-term: state and local revenue
  collections worse than expected; defend
  against cuts to HHS, education
          Contact Information

Eva DeLuna Castro         Frances Deviney
deluna.castro@cppp.org    deviney@cppp.org
(512) 320-0222 ext. 103   (512) 320-0222 ext. 106

                     Celia Hagert
                  hagert@cppp.org
               (512) 320-0222 ext. 110

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