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					                                                Natural Gas Combined-cycle Power Plant
                                                                           April 9, 2002

                                  Optimistic                        Pessimistic
                                 (Low) Case        Base Case        (High) Case                                         Comments




TECHNOLOGY
 Design & configuration           270 MW F-class industrial-grade combined-cycle
                                 plant. No capacity augmentation, no cogeneration.
                                    Mechanical draft cooling. No fuel oil backup.
 Technology base year                     2000 service (1998 technology)
 Permitting period (mo)                                  24                            Council computer models are limited to nearest year.
 Construction period (mo)                                24                            Council computer models are limited to nearest year.
 Available for service                                Current
 Unit capacity (MW)                                     270                            Prelim 5th Plan. Approximation of recent single-train projects.
 Scheduled outages (days/yr)                             14                            4th Plan (1997). Based on a 7-day annual inspection, a 14-day hot gas
                                                                                       path insp. & overhaul every third year and a 42-day major overhaul every
                                                                                       sixth year. Generating Availability Data System (GADS) average is much
                                                                                       greater - 26 days/yr
 Forced outage rate (%)                                 5%                             Oct 2001 reliability assessment. GADS average. Should the rate be
                                                                                       differentiated by year of service (lower for first service year, higher for
                                                                                       later years)?
 Mean time to repair (hrs)                              24                             Oct 2001 reliability assessment. GADS average for full outages.
                                                                                       (GENESYS models all forced outages as full outages)
 Heat rate (HHV) new & clean                           6660                            1995 GE7FA actual, adjusted by technology development index to 1998
 (Btu/kWh)                                                                             technology/2000 service base year. Current GE107FA specification is 6895.

 Heat rate (HHV) lifecycle (as                         6980                            New & clean value derated by 2.2% (from 4th Plan 1997).
 modelled) (Btu/kWh)
 Heat rate improvement            Pessimistic          Base           Optimistic       A&R Study (2000). Figure 2, Tab "Charts".

FUEL SUPPLY

 Fuel supply structure                  100% firm supply & transporation               Preliminary recommendation of the Fuel Advisory Committee. Should
                                                                                       baseload units be credited with partial cost recovery in the capacity
                                                                                       release market?

COSTS

 Base year dollars                                     2000

        11/30/2010                                                                 1                                                                12:57 PM
                                                Natural Gas Combined-cycle Power Plant
                                                                        April 9, 2002

 Capital cost, overnight             $562            $624             $686          A&R Study (2000) ($583/kW), esc. to 2000 dollars, discounted by cost
 ($/kW)                                                                             reduction index. Original A&R study basis was River Road plant. RR
                                                                                    costs assumed to be Low case, because of slack market when developed
                                                                                    (Completed 1997). Cost further adjusted for typical Northwest site
                                                                                    requirements and lifecycle capacity degradation of 2.7%. Adjusted for
                                                                                    elevation and region when modelled. Low & high are +/- 10% of base.

 Capital cost index               Pessimistic        Base          Optimistic       A&R Study (2000). Figure 1, Tab "Charts".
 Development cash flow (%/yr)                      1/1/59/39

 Fixed O&M ($/kW/yr)                                $10.70                          5th Plan Prelim, actual PNW project estimate, excludes insurance &
                                                                                    property tax. Was $19.00/kW in year 2000 dollars.
 Variable O&M (mills/kWh)                             2.8                           5th Plan Prelim, actual PNW project estimate. Was 1.1 mills/kWh in year
                                                                                    2000 dollars.
 O&M technology cost index        Pessimistic       Base           Optimistic       A&R Study (2000). Figure 1, Tab "Charts".
 O&M general cost index                     -2.5%/yr through 2005                   EIA Annual Electricity Outlook 2002
 Service Life (yrs)                                   30                            4th Plan (1997)
 Regional price indices                 NWPP 1.000; CA 1.031; RM 0.978              EIA Annual Electricity Outlook 2002

FINANCING

 Developer                                            IPP                           4th Plan (1997)
 Federal Income Tax Rate (%)                         34.0%                          4th Plan (1997)

 Accelerated Depreciation (yrs)                       20                            4th Plan (1997)

 State Income Tax Rate (%)                           3.70%                          4th Plan (1997)
 State Investment Credit (%)                         0.00%                          4th Plan (1997)
 Gross Revenue (%)                                   0.00%                          4th Plan (1997)
 Property Tax (% assessed                            1.40%                          4th Plan (1997)
 value)
 Insurance (% assessed value)                        0.40%                          5th Plan Prelim, actual PNW project estimate

 Capital Amortization                                 15                            4th Plan (1997)
 Debt Fraction:
  Development Period                  0%               0%              0%           4th Plan (1997)
  Construction Period                80%              70%              0%           Base - 4th Plan (1997); range A&R study (2000)
  Long-term                          80%              70%             60%           Base - 4th Plan (1997); range A&R study (2000)
 Debt Interest Rate (Nominal):

  Development Period                                10.0%                           4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
       11/30/2010                                                               2                                                                   12:57 PM
                                            Natural Gas Combined-cycle Power Plant
                                                                           April 9, 2002

   Construction Period                               9.0%                            4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
   Long-term                                         8.7%                            4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
 Return on Equity (Nominal):
   Development Period                                29.0%                           4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
   Construction Period                               24.0%                           4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
   Long-term                                         17.3%                           4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.
 Debt financing fees (%)                               2%                            4th Plan (1997)
 Discount Basis                             After-tax cost of capital
 Discount rate (Nominal)           7.80%             8.98%              10.17%       4th Plan (1997)
 General Inflation Rate (%)                          2.50%                           4th Plan (1997). Intended to represent average over 20 years.

EMISSIONS (Plant site, excluding gas production & delivery)

 PM-10 (T/GWh)                                       0.020                           Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 SOx (T/GWh)                                         0.004                           SO2 + H2SO4. Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 NOx (T/GWh)                                         0.046                           Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 CO (T/GWh)                                          0.075                           Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 Hydrocarbons/VOC (T/GWh)                            0.014                           Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 Ammonia (T/GWh)                                    <0.084                           Grays Harbor (Satsop) Ph II application (Nov 2001).
 CO2 (T/GWh) (Lifecycle HR                            410
 basis)

AVAILABILITY FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

 Site availability 2001 - 2020                 Not constrained                       Excludes projects under construction. In preliminary modelling, new combined-
                                                                                     cycle "builds" in addition to projects currently under construction in US
                                                                                     Northwest & BC are less than 3000MW over 20 years.




       11/30/2010                                                                3                                                                   12:57 PM
                                                                             FORECAST COST & EFFICIENCY OF COMBIN
                                                                                                                                     April 25,1998




                                                   Fig 1: Forecast Improvement in Specific Work & Cost
                                            2000
                                                                Theoretical ultimate specific work
                                                                Historic
       Specific Work (kJ/kg); Cost ($/kW)




                                                                Optimistic
                                            1500                Base
                                                                Pessimistic
                                                                Capital cost - Base ($/kW)
                                                                Capital cost - Pessimistic ($/kW)
                                                                Capital cost - Optimistic ($/kW)
                                            1000




                                             500




                                               0
                                                1970           1980             1990              2000             2010              2020




Premises:
                                                       Technology development often follows an s-shaped curve, but the curve is often quite flat, rolling of
                                                       The development of a technology often spans a century or more, though the period might be expec
                                                       Commercial combined-cycle power plants first appeared about 1950, hence there is reason to expe
                                                       Capital and O&M costs of combined-cycle machines are assumed to decline in proportion to increa
                                                       River Road (1995 order/1997 service) is used to normalize cost and efficiency (River Road values a
                                                       The cost escalators determined here are applied to the River Road base year cost of $546/kW, adj
                                                       The efficiency escalators determined here are applied to the River Road base year (1995 order) life
                                                       Escalation values derived here are applied to River Road base cost in Microfin.
                                                       River Road base year cost is assumed to be low, and will be adjusted by a "slow market correction

Specific case Assumptions
                                            Specific
                                             work
                                         improvemen
                                         t realized as
                                              cost
                                           reduction       Point of       Near-term            Long-term
                             Case             (%)           Origin       assumption           assumption


                                                                                         SW - continued linear
                                                                     Development to progress; efficiency,
                                                                     2020 follows long- asymptotic progress
                                                         Chiesa 2010 term historial rate to ultimate technology
                          Pessimistic        10%         in 2010     (Chiesa rate).      ca: 2080.

                                                                     Development
                                                                     through 2020
                                                                     follows rate
                                                                     established since
                                                                     introduction of
                                                                     W501 series
                                                                     through             SW - continued linear
                                                                     commercial          progress; efficiency,
                                                                     deployment of       asymptotic progress
                                                                     ATS technology      to ultimate technology
                          Base               30%         ATS in 2009 in 2009.            ca: 2060.
                                                                     Development
                                                                     through 2020
                                                                     follows rate
                                                                     established since
                                                                     1995 (501F)
                                                                     through             SW - continued linear
                                                                     commercial          progress; efficiency,
                                                                     deployment of       asymptotic progress
                                                                     ATS technology      to ultimate technology
                          Optimistic         50%         ATS in 2004 in 2004.            ca: 2040.

Heat rate adjustments:   Adjustment         Ratio          Variable        Source
                   Modeled > Quoted         1.03           HRAMB      Chiesa, 1993 Ftnt 7
                          LHV > HHV         1.11           HRALH      GTW Handbook
                       Quoted > Rated       1.03           HRANR      GTW Handbook
                     Rated > Lifecycle      1.02           HRARL      Fourth plan

Historic Data and Forecast Cases



                                        Initial
                             Initial Commercial ISO Base ISO Base Rating
                          Commercia Deployment Rating (SC)    (CC)
         Model              l Demo   (CC Config)  (kW)        (kW)       Mass Flow (lb/sec)
Historicw/ATS in 2004
W 501A                           1968   1970    45000    67500    548
W 501B                           1973   1975    80000   120000    746
W 501D                           1976   1978    95000   142500    781
W 501D5                          1982   1984   107000   160710    790
W 501F                           1993   1995   160000   268110    961
W 501G                           1997   2000   230000   345340   1200
Westinghouse ATS                 2003   2004   300000   420000   1200
Historicw/ATS in 2009
W 501A                           1968   1970    45000    67500    548
W 501B                           1973   1975    80000   120000    746
W 501D                           1976   1978    95000   142500    781
W 501D5                          1982   1984   107000   160710    790
W 501F                           1993   1995   160000   268110    961
W 501G                           1997   2002   230000   345340   1200
Westinghouse ATS                 2005   2009   300000   420000   1200
Chiesa
1990                                    1990
2010 Technology                         2010
Ultimate
Base
W501F                                   1997
W 501G                                  2002
ATS                                     2009
2010 Technology                         2010
2020 Technology                         2020
2030 Technology                         2030
2040 Technology                         2040
2060 Technology (Chesa Ultimate)        2060
Pessimistic
W501F                                   1997
W 501G                                  2002
2010 Technology (Chiesa)                2010
2020 Technology                         2020
2030 Technology                         2030
2040 Technology                         2040
2050 Technology                         2050
2060 Technology                         2060
2080 Technology                         2080
Optimistic
W501F                                   1997
W 501G                                  2000
ATS                                     2004
2010 Technology                         2010
2020 Technology                         2020
2030 Technology                         2030
2040 Technology (Ultimate)              2040
ENCY OF COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANTS
       April 25,1998




                                                                                                  12000

                                                                                                  11000

                                                                                                  10000

                                                                       Heat Rate, HHV (Btu/kWh)
                                                                                                   9000

                                                                                                   8000

                                                                                                   7000

                                                                                                   6000

                                                                                                   5000

                                                                                                   4000
       2020              2030              2040
                                                                                                      1970   1980




                                                                                                  1970
e is often quite flat, rolling off only near the ends (e.g. Fig 5 of Chiesa).                     2100
h the period might be expected to shorten as technology development technology advances.
ence there is reason to expect that currently the technology is in the linear portion of the curve (Fig,. 1 of Chiesa).
ecline in proportion to increases in specific work.
 ciency (River Road values are known for actual field service)..
e year cost of $546/kW, adjusted for market conditions.
d base year (1995 order) lifetime average heat rate of 7167 Btu/kWh.

y a "slow market correction factor" in the base and high cases.
                                    Base
                                    Year
 Ultimate                          Capital
Technology    Market equlibrium     Cost
Acheived by   correction Factor    ($/kW)




       2070         1.21            $661




       2060         1.10            $601




       2040         1.00            $546




                                   Realized              Modelled   Quoted
 Specific                          as cost                 LHV        LHV
Work (CC)     Specific Work %     reduction   Capital   Efficiency Efficiency
 (kJ/kg)         Increase            (%)       cost     (Btu/kWh) (Btu/kWh)
272                                   9000
355    5.5%                           7350
402    4.3%                           7280
448    1.8%                           7055
615    2.9%                           6429
634    0.8%                           5881
772    3.3%                           5700

272                                   9000
355    5.5%                           7350
402    4.3%                           7280
448    1.8%                           7055
615    2.9%                           6429
634    0.8%                           5881
772    2.5%                           5700

 570                           6095   6278
 730    1.2%                   5559   5726
2000   #NUM!                          4876

 615                    $601
 634   0.6%     -0.2%   $595
 772   2.8%     -0.9%   $561
 784   1.6%     -0.5%   $558
 904   1.5%     -0.4%   $535
1024   1.3%     -0.4%   $515




615                     $661
634    0.6%    -0.06%   $659
698    1.2%    -0.12%   $653
778    1.1%    -0.11%   $646
858    1.0%    -0.10%   $639




 615                    $546   546
 634   1.0%     -0.5%   $538
 772   5.0%     -2.5%   $485
 873   2.1%     -1.0%   $456
1041   1.9%     -0.9%   $417
1210   1.6%     -0.8%   $387
                Fig 2: Forecast Heat Rate Improvement



                                                  Historic
                                                  Pessimistic
                                                  Base
                                                  Optimistic
                                                  Theoretical ultimate efficiency




         1980             1990      2000   2010              2020          2030     2040




                                 5686                 1970          2000
                                 5686                 2040          2000

e curve (Fig,. 1 of Chiesa).
                                      Lifecycle     Average
                        Rated HHV        HHV        Annual
Quoted HHV Efficiency   Efficiency   Efficiency   Improvement
     (Btu/kWh)          (Btu/kWh)    (Btu/kWh)         (%)
9990   10290   10495
8159    8403    8571   -4.0%
8081    8323    8490   -0.3%
7831    8066    8227   -0.5%
7136    7350    7497   -0.8%
6528    6724    6858   -2.2%
6327    6517    6647   -0.5%

9990   10290   10495
8159    8403    8571   -4.0%
8081    8323    8490   -0.3%
7831    8066    8227   -0.5%
7136    7350    7497   -0.8%
6528    6724    6858   -2.2%
6327    6517    6647   -0.4%

6968   7177    7321
6356   6546    6677    -0.5%
5412   5575    5686    #NUM!

               7167
               6858    -0.9%
               6647    -0.4%
               6620    -0.4%
               6330    -0.4%
               6115    -0.3%
               5920    -0.3%
               5686    -0.2%

               7167
               6858    -0.9%
               6677    -0.3%
               6500    -0.3%
               6300    -0.3%
               6140    -0.3%
               5990    -0.2%
               5850    -0.2%
               5686    -0.1%

               7167
               6858    -1.5%
               6647    -0.8%
               6350    -0.8%
               6000    -0.6%
               5800    -0.3%
               5685    -0.2%

				
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