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US Retail Industry: An Analysis

Description:    This report presents an in-depth look at the US retail industry. It employs the PEST and Porter
                frameworks to provide an insight into the workings of the various industry segments. This is
                followed by a detailed examination of the competitive landscape, leading to an outlook for the
                industry.

                Some of the key findings include:

                - Retail revenues in the US experienced a CAGR of 5.2% during 1999-2005
                - Non-store formats (including online sales, home shopping networks) grew faster than the total
                retail industry during the last five years
                - General merchandise stores formed the highest share in the US retail market in 2005

                For industry players, such as Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Target, the rising cost curve is only one of
                the many challenges to be overcome in a market where prices are transparent and consumers have
                a wide array of choices.

                Online auction houses, such as Amazon.com and e-bay, along with excess inventory liquidators
                (such as overstock.com), have further increased competition among retailers.



Contents:       1. Introduction

                 Industry Definition & Segmentation

                 The retail industry in the US includes sellers of consumer merchandise, including electronics, food,
                beverages, etc. The retail sector comprises a variety of retail formats to reach end-consumers,
                including online retail and home shopping networks.

                 The US retail industry is broadly divided into three segments:

                Broadline Retailers

                Non-Store Retailers

                Specialty Retailers

                 2. Market Dynamics

                 2.1 Market Overview

                 Retail industry is the second largest industry in US employing about 14.9 million people,
                accounting for about 11.7% of total employment in US. The section includes:

                Retail sales

                Retail sector growth

                Market share of retail store formats

                Wal-Mart – Presence and reach

                 2.2 Trend Analysis

                 Growth in Multi-Channel Retailing
                 Impact of e-commerce on retailing
Expansion of Physical Store Space
Payment Modes
Impact of Discount Retailers on Small Retail Chains
IT leverage
Expansion in International Markets
Options in Holiday Shopping
Changes in customer service
Promotional Offers

2.3 Key Drivers

Credit Sales
 Multi-channel Shopping
 Expiry of WTO Quota Regime

2.4 Major Issues and Implications

Impact of Rising SG&A expenses
Rising Interest Rates and Consumer spending
Prices in Retail Real Estate
Growth in Credit Card Fraud

3. PEST Analysis

3.1 Political Factors

Change in Overtime Regulations
Fair Share Healthcare Bill

3.2 Economic Factors

Rising Oil Prices
US Economic growth
Low-cost Destinations Sourcing

3.3 Social Factors

Presence of Hispanic Population
Retiree Population on the Rise

3.4 Technological Factors

Biometrics
RFID Technology
Online Retailing

4. Michael Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

4.1 Buyers’ Power

Availability of Choices
High Net-worth Consumers

4.2 Suppliers’ Power

 Suppliers
Retailer equation
 Impact of global outsourcing
 Private Label growth

4.3 Intensity of Competition

Impact of Online Auctions and Inventory Liquidators
Multiple Channel Lines
Enhanced Customer Experience

4.4 Threat of New Entrants

Capex requirement for Physical Stores
Growing E-commerce
Matching Wal-Mart’s Scale Economies

4.5 Threat of Substitute Products

Direct Sellers and Retailers

5. Competitive Landscape

On the basis of total revenues in FY05, major players in the US retail industry:


Wal-Mart

Home Depot

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Target Corporation

5.1 Competitive Positioning

Competitive positioning of the four US retailers on the following parameters:


Market Share

Number of Retail Stores

Product Range

Store Footage in million sq. ft

Store Formats

5.2 Competition Strategies

Wal-Mart’s strategies on:
Price
Supply Chain
Union Operations
Cross-shopping

 Home Depot’s focus on:
 Global Sourcing and Distribution
 Growth
 IT Investments

 Costco’s strategies on:
  Productivity
  Marketing and Promo expenditure

Target Corporation’ strategies on:
  Credit Services to Customers
 E-commerce
 IT infrastructure
5.3 Financial Analysis

Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Costco and Target comparisons based on:

Income Statement Analysis

Revenue comparisons

Net income comparisons

Profitability ratios comparisons

Balance Sheet Analysis

Liquidity ratios comparisons

Debt-equity ratio comparisons

Performance ratio comparisons

Valuation Multiples

Same store sales

Activity ratio comparisons

5.4 Stock Performance

Stock performance and stock price movements in 2004-2005 in:

Wal-Mart

Home Depot

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Target Corporation

6. Industry Outlook

Industry outlook and projections on US retail industry, retail and online retail sales

Appendix I: International Conferences and Annual Meetings
Appendix II: Industry Associations and Organizations

List of Tables/Figures

Table 1.1: Business and NAICS code
Table 2.1: Retailer and E-commerce Website Launch
Table 5.1: Top Retailers in US FY05

Figure   1.1: Retail Industry Segments
Figure   2.1: US retail sales, 1999-2005
Figure   2.2: Growth in retail store sub-categories in 1999-2005
Figure   2.3: Share of various retail store formats in the US in 2005
Figure   2.4: Market Share of retail formats 1999 & 2005
Figure   2.5: Wal-Mart stores by state, Jan 2005
Figure   2.6: Wal-Mart stores per unit state area in US
Figure   2.7: US Online retail sales, 1999-2004
Figure   2.8: Per capita Retail space
Figure   2.9: SG&A as a percentage of sales 1998-2004
Figure   2.10: US online and credit card retail fraud, 2003-2005
Figure   3.1: Yearly average crude oil prices, 2000-2005
            Figure   3.2:   US Hispanic population 1980-2050
            Figure   3.3:   Online sales growth, 2004&2005
            Figure   4.1:   Retail Capex trend, 2000-2004
            Figure   5.1:   Major players Revenue comparisons, FY04-FY05
            Figure   5.2:   Major Players’ Net income comparisons, FY04-FY05
            Figure   5.3:   Major Players’ profitability ratios comparisons, FY05
            Figure   5.4:   Major Players’ liquidity ratios comparisons, FY05
            Figure   5.5:   Major Players’ debt-equity ratios comparisons, FY05
            Figure   5.6:   Major Players’ performance ratios comparisons, FY05
            Figure   5.7:   Major Players’ same store sales comparisons, FY04-FY05
            Figure   5.8:   Major Players’ activity ratios comparisons, FY05
            Figure   5.9:   Major Players’ stock performance, Jan 2005-Jan 2006
            Figure   6.1:   US Projected retail sales, 2005-2008E
            Figure   6.2:   US Projected online retail sales, 2004-2009E




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