Illegal_immigrant_population_of_the_United_States by zzzmarcus

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Illegal immigrant population of the United States

Illegal immigrant population of the United States
The actual size and the origin of the Illegal immigrant population in the United States is uncertain and hard to ascertain because of difficulty in accurately counting individuals in this population. National surveys, administrative data and other sources of information provide inaccurate measures of the size of the illegal immigrant population and current estimates based on this data indicate that the current population may range from 7 million to 20 million. An often used number in 2008 is 11 million. This is a decline from the historic peak of 12.5 million seen in 2007.[1] Critics claim this correction is in error-whatever size correction is used. Using the residual methodology with a minimal 10% foreign born undercount correction (reason for correction size unstated) for the 2000 Census and a 700,000 net illegal immigrant increase/year assumption and data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey [CPS Survey] (U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Labor) Pew estimated 10.3 million unauthorized immigrants in 2004. Assuming the same rate of growth Pew projected this population reached at least 11 million as of March 2005. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that in the 1980’s the net advance of the undocumented population was at the 130,000 per year increasing to 450,000 per year from 1990-94, and further increasing to 750,000 per year from 1995-1999 and staying at 700-850,000+ per year since about 2000. Illegal Mexican immigration amounts to about 500,000 per year of this influx since about 1999. According to the same Pew Hispanic Center study as of March 2005, the undocumented population had reached 11 million or more including more than 6.5 million illegal Mexicans (~60% of all illegal immigrants). Assuming the same rate of growth as in recent years gives about 12,000,000 illegal immigrants in the United States as of January 2006, increasing at 700,000–850,000 per year with illegal Mexicans amounting to about 60%+ (7+ million) of the total by 2006. By September 2006 the illegal population is thought to be about 13 million. About onesixth of the undocumented population — about 2.0 million people — is under 18 years of age.[6]. After 2000 the estimation of the growth of the illegal population becomes more difficult because of a lack of good information. The rate of growth of the illegal population is estimated with the Consumer Price Survey data [2004] which suffers from the same under counting problems of the Census plus the problem of a much smaller statistical sample used of only 10,000–20,000. Its accuracy may

Size
According to the Bureau of Transportation statistics [2] there are over 200,000,000 legal border crossings from Mexico each year, ~80% by automobile. The number of illegal immigrants emigrating [leaving] the U.S. is estimated at about 240,000 per year (~2% of illegal population)
[3]

Residual method
The “residual method” is widely used to estimate the illegal immigrant population, where the reported census number of self proclaimed foreign born people in the U.S. census is subtracted from the known number of legal immigrants to obtain the unauthorized immigrant (residual) population[4]. This methodology is used by the US Department of Homeland Security[5], the Pew Hispanic Center, the US Census Bureau and others. Since unauthorized immigrants have many reasons for not answering the census correctly and no penalties for answering the census incorrectly, a direct subtraction has a well known source of undercount error and has to be corrected. All known users of this methodology correct the foreign born population (~ 35-50 million) by 10-40% (3-12 million) to account for this undercount effect.

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Illegal immigrant population of the United States

well be suspect for lack of a truly represent1998 4.744 -2.5% 3.875 -99 ative "random" sample and well known non1999 5.910 24.6% 4.827 952 random distribution of the illegal immigrant 2000 6.573 11.2% 5.369 542 populations. Using these techniques Pew 2001 8.895 35.3% 7.265 1,897 comes up with from 12+ million illegal aliens 2002 9.814 10.3% 8.016 751 in January 2006 with an estimated growth 2003 13.396 36.5% 10.941 2,926 rate of 700,000 to 850,000 net illegal aliens per year. This is the so called "consensus" 2004 16.613 24.0% 13.569 2,628 number used by most reporters. The unstated 2005 20.035 20.6% 16.364 2,795 cumulative error in total illegal aliens by Non4.0 to 2006 could easily be an additional 8 million Mex. 6.0 illegal aliens or more and the error in the Total illegal aliens 20.0 to 22.0 millio growth rate since 2000 could also be very large but again is unstated by Pew and othAssumes the amount of remittances from the U.S. is proportional to ers. There is a high probability of the illegal ber of Mexicans living in the U.S. alien population’s size in 2006 being significAs can be seen the Pew and Bear Stern numbers are in basic agreem antly larger than the 12 million predicted as about 2000. all additional information points to a significTotal remittances in 2005 were about 20 billion. ant increase (300+ %) in the advance rate of Sources: illegal aliens after 2000 not a reduction as * Banco de Mexico [2] initially predicted by Pew. ** Bear Stern’s investigators [3] Investigative journalists Donald L. Barlett *** Pew data [4] and James B. Steele estimates in Time magazine in its September 12, 2004 issue, Remittances to Mexico that the number of illegal aliens entering into Bear Sterns’ investigators [9] came up with the U.S. that year will total 3 million/year — another way to attack this very difficult probenough to fill 22,000 Boeing 737-700 airlem. They made the assumption that the liners, or 60 flights every day for a year.[7] amount of remittances (money sent back to In 2006 legal immigrants to the United Mexico) is directly proportional to the numStates now number approximately 1,000,000 ber of Mexican immigrants in the United legal immigrants per year of which about States. Other data used for their estimates 600,000 are Change of Status immigrants are the increases of households and school who already are in the U.S. Legal immigrants enrollment in Mexican immigrant communitto the United States are now at their highest ies. They conclude that the number of illegal level ever at over 35,000,000. Net advance aliens in the United States may well be twice by illegal aliens has also soared from about the official number put out by the U.S. 130,000 per year in the 1970s, to 300,000+ Census of 9 million and may be 20 million per year in the 1980s to over 500,000 per people or higher. Information from The Mexyear in the 1990s to over 700,000 per year in ican Central Bank and (U.S. Federal Reserve the 2000s. Total entrance by illegal aliens Banks) details the remittances and shows may be as high as 1,500,000 per year [in their growth [10]. According to that data, re2006] with a net of at least 700,000 more ilmittances stayed fairly stable until 2000 legal aliens arriving each year to join the when a steady and dramatic increase began. 12,000,000 to 20,000,000 that are already The change in remittances between 1997 and here. (Pew Hispanic Data Estimates[1]) [8] 1999 is most likely a problem in accounting Mexican Remittances and Illegal Population Growthyear average is still about 450 — the three Year * Remittances Billions thousand/year consistent with other data. Remittances Illegal ** Illegal Pew The agreement % Increase Mexicans Increase *** with the Pew estimate is reasonably per year Millions thous./good up to 2001 where there is a sigest. nificant difference — just where the Pew and yr thous./ Census data becomes harder to extrapolate yr because of lack of good data. Using this tech3.000 nique Bear Sterns investigators come up with 15.0% 3.450 450 400 a possible illegal population of 20 million or 15.2% 3.974 524 400 greater. (See figure for calculation) Other

1995 3.673 1996 4.224 1997 4.865

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data confirming their estimates are the dramatic increases of households and school enrollment in Mexican immigrant communities (read their report for more details). Border Arrest data do not show this dramatic increase in apprehensions.

Illegal immigrant population of the United States

References
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/ 31immig.html?partner=rssnyt [2] "Border Crossing Data — US–Mexico". Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US Department of Transportation. 2003. http://www.bts.gov/programs/ international/ border_crossing_entry_data/us_mexico/ index.html. [3] "A Description of the Immigrant Population". US Congressional Budget Office. November 2004. http://www.cbo.gov/ showdoc.cfm?index=6019&sequence=0#box2. [4] Jeffrey S. Passel (June 2005). "Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics". Pew Hispanic Center. p. 7. http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/ 46.pdf. [5] MICHAEL HOEFER (January 2005). "Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: May 2006". US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate. http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/ assets/statistics/publications/ ILL_PE_2005.pdf. [6] Jeffrey S. Passel (March 21, 2005). "Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Undocumented Population". Pew Hispanic Center. http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/ 44.pdf. [7] DONALD L. BARLETT; JAMES B. STEELE (September 20, 2004). "Who Left the Door Open?". p. 5. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ article/0,9171,995145-5,00.html. [8] Steven Malanga (Summer 2006). "How Unskilled Immigrants Hurt Our Economy". http://www.city-journal.org/ html/16_3_immigrants_economy.html. [9] Robert Justich; Betty Ng (January 3, 2005). "The Underground Labor Force Is Rising To The Surface". Bear Sterns Asset Management. http://www.bearstearns.com/bscportal/ pdfs/underground.pdf. [10] "CPSS-WB General Principles for International Remittances Services: The Point of View of Authorities: Banco de México". The World Bank. May 2006. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/

Impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009
The global financial crisis has had a large impact on America. The construction sector and other areas illegal immigrants traditionally seek employment in have shrunk. The recession has also led to a surplus of American labor driving down the benefit of hiring illegal immigrants. It is estimated that over a million illegal immigrants have returned to Mexico since the beginning of the crisis.[11]

Origins
According to a Pew Hispanic Center report, Mexicans make up 57 percent of the undocumented immigrants. Another 24 percent are from other Latin American countries. Approximately 9 percent are from Asia, 6 percent from Europe and Canada, with the remaining 4 percent from the rest of the world [5]. Country of Origin (January 2006) Mexico 6,840,000 57% Latin & Central Amer. 3,000,000 24% Asia 1,080,000 9% Europe + Canada 720,000 6% Rest of World 480,000 4% The number of Mexican legal immigrants and Mexican illegal aliens in the United States has grown quite rapidly over the past 35 years, increasing almost 15-fold from about 760,000 in the 1970 Census to more than 11 million in 2004—an average annual growth rate of more than 8 percent, maintained over more than 3 decades. This remarkable growth has been largely driven by the encroachment of illegal aliens. On average the net Mexican population living in the United States has grown by at least a half million people a year over the past decade. About 80 to 85 percent of the immigration from Mexico and Central America in recent years has been illegal. (Pew report Figure 4 and page 2)

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EXTPAYMENTREMMITTANCE/ Resources/ BancodeMexicoRicardoMedina.pdf. [11] http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/ 31immig.html?partner=rssnyt

Illegal immigrant population of the United States
• [7]A Description of the Immigrant Population • [8] Labor Participation less than High School • [9] Economy Slowed, But Immigration Didn’t • [10] Immigration Enforcement Actions: 2004 • [11] The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers • [12] Labor Statistics

External links
• [6] Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Undocumented Population

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