Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 13, 2006
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Live Capacity Capacity on 4/05/06 Available Space Percentage of Full 3,788,700 3,019,000 769,700 80 AF AF AF %
Reservoir Elev. (Min Power) Elevation on 4/05/06 Elevation above (Min) Average Inflow Average Release
5871.00 6021.11 150.11 1225 1400
feet feet feet cfs cfs
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
F la m in g G o rg e D a m F lu c tu a tio n P a tte rn
6000 5750 5500 5250 5000 4750 4500 4250 4000 3750 F G R e le a s e (h o u rly ) J e n s e n F lo w (h o u rly) Y a m p a D e e rlo d g e
Flow (cfs)
3500 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1-Apr-06 2-Apr-06 3-Apr-06 4-Apr-06 5-Apr-06 6-Apr-06 7-Apr-06 8-Apr-06 9-Apr-06 10-Apr-06 11-Apr-06 12-Apr-06 13-Apr-06 14-Apr-06 15-Apr-06 16-Apr-06 17-Apr-06 18-Apr-06 19-Apr-06 20-Apr-06 21-Apr-06
D a te
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Upper Green River Basin Snotel Tracking Aggregate of 18 Snotel Sites above Flaming Gorge Reservoir
110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 10/01/2005 11/01/2005 12/01/2005 01/01/2006 02/01/2006 03/01/2006 04/01/2006 05/01/2006 06/01/2006 07/01/2006 Statistical Average Index Current Year Index WY2006 Comparison Year Index 2005
Index Snow Water Equivelent
Date
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Upper Yampa River Basin Snotel Tracking Aggregate of 16 Snotel Sites above Green River Confluence
120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 Index Snow Water Equivelent 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 10/01/2005 11/01/2005 12/01/2005 01/01/2006 02/01/2006 03/01/2006 04/01/2006 05/01/2006 06/01/2006 07/01/2006 Statistical Average Index Current Year Index WY2006 Comparison Year Index 2005
Date
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Flaming Gorge Reservoir (April Final Forecast)
Related to Flow Recommendations Percentage Exceedances Dry
100 90 80
Mod Dry
Average
Mod Wet
Wet
Forecast Probability (%)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
April through July Volume (KAF)
Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow Volume (KAF))
1000 1500 2000 2500 500 0
Flaming Gorge Reservoir, UT
Historic Unregulated April-July Inflow Volume Ranking (1963-2005)
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Year
1977 2002 1992 2001 1994 2003 2004 1981 2000 1988 1989 1990 1963 1966 1979 Min 1970 1985 1991 1987 1968 1993 2005 1964 Most 1969 60% 1973 1976 1996 1974 70% 1978 1980 1995 1998 1982 1967 1975 1997 1984 1999 Max 1971 1972 1965 1983 1986
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Yampa River Maybell + Lily (April Final Forecast)
Related to Flow Recommendations Exceedance Percentages Dry
100 90 80
Mod Dry
Average
Mod Wet
Wet
Forecast Probability (%)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
April through July Volume (KAF)
Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow Volume (KAF))
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 500 0
Yampa River (Maybell + Lily), CO
Historic Unregulated April-July Flow Volume Ranking (1922-2005)
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Year
1934 1977 1954 1992 1961 1989 1994 1963 1981 2004 1966 1990 1987 2001 1955 1959 1991 1953 1972 1940 1946 1935 1939 1931 1976 2000 1930 1967 1943 1988 1964 1960 2003 1951 1925 1944 1941 1924 1948 1950 Min 1956 1937 1969 1936 1999 2005 1942 1922 60% 1926 1933 1968 1938 1958 1975 1947 70% 1945 1973 1993 1979 1965 1923 1970 1998 Most 1980 1927 1949 1982 1962 1996 1928 1978 1974 1986 1985 1971 1932 1995 1983 1952 1997 1957 Max 1929 1984
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Spring Operations Objectives under 2006 Flaming Gorge Record of Decision (2006 ROD) Flow Objectives for Average Years Reach 1 - Peak flow should be at least 4,600 cfs for a duration sufficient to achieve flow objectives for Reaches 2 and 3. Reach 2 - Peak flow should be at least 18,600 cfs in 50% of all average years. In other average years peak flows should be at least 8,300 cfs. In 25% of all average years flows should be at least 18,600 cfs for at least 2 weeks. Reach 3 - It is assumed that the flows objectives in Reach 3 are met when flow objectives of Reach 2 are met.
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Possible Scenario Under Most Probable Conditions
1980 Yampa Flow Pattern
25000 Flaming Gorge Release Yampa River Hydrograph Estimated Jensen Hydrograph
20000
Flow-Release (cfs)
15000
10000
5000
0 04/01/2006
05/01/2006
06/01/2006 Date
07/01/2006
08/01/2006
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Flaming Gorge Operations WY2006,2007
Most Probable Operations April 2006
6040.00 6038.00 6036.00 6034.00
Elevation (feet above sea level)
6032.00 6030.00 6028.00 6026.00 6024.00 6022.00 6020.00 6018.00 6016.00 6014.00 6012.00 6010.00 6008.00 6006.00 6004.00 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Historical Elevations Max Elevation Target Min Elevation Target Forecasted Elevations
Date
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Spring Operations Objectives under 2006 Flaming Gorge Record of Decision (2006 ROD) Flow Objectives for Moderately Dry Years Reach 1 - Peak flow should be at least 4,600 cfs for a duration sufficient to achieve flow objectives for Reaches 2 and 3. Reach 2 - Peak flow should be at least 8,300 cfs for at least 1 week Reach 3 - It is assumed that the flows objectives in Reach 3 are met when flow objectives of Reach 2 are met.
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Possible Scenario Under Min Probable Conditions
1956 Yampa Flow Pattern
20000 18000 16000 14000 Flow-Release (cfs) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 04/01/2006 Flaming Gorge Release Yampa River Hydrograph Estimated Jensen Hydrograph
05/01/2006
06/01/2006 Date
07/01/2006
08/01/2006
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Flaming Gorge Operations WY2006,2007
Minimum Probable Operations April 2006
6040.00 6038.00 6036.00 6034.00
Elevation (feet above sea level)
6032.00 6030.00 6028.00 6026.00 6024.00 6022.00 6020.00 6018.00 6016.00 6014.00 6012.00 6010.00 6008.00 6006.00 6004.00 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Historical Elevations Max Elevation Target Min Elevation Target Forecasted Elevations
Date
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Spring Operations Objectives under 2006 Flaming Gorge Record of Decision (2006 ROD) Flow Objectives for Moderately Wet Years Reach 1 - Peak flow should be at least 4,600 cfs for a duration sufficient to achieve flow objectives for Reaches 2 and 3. Reach 2 - Peak flow should be at least 20,300 cfs. Flows of at least 18,600 cfs should be maintained for at least 2 weeks. Reach 3 - It is assumed that the flows objectives in Reach 3 are met when flow objectives of Reach 2 are met.
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Possible Scenario Under Max Probable Conditions
1957 Yampa Flow Pattern
30000 Flaming Gorge Release Yampa River Hydrograph Estimated Jensen Hydrograph
25000
Flow-Release (cfs)
20000
15000
10000
5000
0 04/01/2006
05/01/2006
06/01/2006 Date
07/01/2006
08/01/2006
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Flaming Gorge Operations WY2006,2007
Maximum Probable Operations April 2006
6040.00 6038.00 6036.00 6034.00
Elevation (feet above sea level)
6032.00 6030.00 6028.00 6026.00 6024.00 6022.00 6020.00 6018.00 6016.00 6014.00 6012.00 6010.00 6008.00 6006.00 6004.00 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08
Historical Elevations Max Elevation Target Min Elevation Target Forecasted Elevations
Date
Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting April 2006
Operations under the Record of Decision (2006 ROD)
Four Step Process for Decision Making 1. Recovery Program Request for Research Flows 2. Flaming Gorge Technical Working Group 3. Flaming Gorge Working Group 4. Reclamation makes the final decision of how to operate.