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					   Community Cooperation or
    Community Collapse: The
  Reality of 21st Century Canada
              April 5, 2006
       Challenge North Conference
           High Level, Alberta
               Mark Partridge
Canada Research Chair in the New Rural Economy
         University of Saskatchewan
       Outline: Why am I here?
1. Alberta in North America
2. ―Alberta Advantage‖: Not Oil, something else
  1. Current strengths
  2. Future challenges: Natural resource booms end!
3. Alberta-Northern Alberta
4. Rural-Urban interdependence
     Need for a New Rural Paradigm.
5. Successful cooperation builds strength
6. Building our communities for tomorrow
                                                      2
      Alberta is in North America
 Success is long-run population growth
  – Combines good economy & quality of life
      People vote with their feet
      Not subjective (not Govt $ budget surplus)
 Looking E-W across Canada is simplistic
  – Globe and Mail view of Alberta is ―plain lucky!‖
 Look North-South to see real patterns
  – Regions cross international borders
  – Great Plains population loss
  – Alberta and BC are in the Rocky Mtn West
                                                       3
           1990s North American Population Growth




Source: Canada Rural Economy Research Lab, 1991 & 2001 Census – Statistics Canada; 1990 & 2000 Census – U.S. Census Bureau.
                                                                                                                                              4
Notes: The map shows 1990-2000 percent population change for US counties using the U.S. Census of Population. The 1991 -2001 percent population
change for Canadian census divisions use Statistics Canada data and are based on 1996 consistent boundaries.
 Canada‘s Unique pattern:
  – Cities are Canada‘s engine of growth
 Canada‘s Rural development
  – Critical mass
  – Threshold effects
  – Growth poles
 For N. Alberta, this is a challenge and why
  communities need to work together.
                                                5
            Alberta is booming
 Good times blur long-term challenges
 ―Natural Resources Curse‖
  – Corruption, Bad Institutions, Bad Planning, Dutch
    Disease (ask Alberta manufactures)
  – Natural resource economies fare poorly in the long-
    term.
 Nigeria, Venezuela are not growth examples
 Hurricane Katrina revealed Louisiana's poverty
 BC doing as well as AB despite little energy
                                                     6
 Alberta pop. grew faster in the late 1990s
  when energy prices were lower.
  – Rural Canada avg: every 1% greater 1991
    Other Primary Emp share implied -0.35% less
    population growth in 1990s
  –   Source Statistics Canada & Partridge, M.D.; R. Bollman; M.R. Olfert; and A. Alasia. 2005. ―Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the
      Countryside: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation.‖ University of Saskatchewan, Canada Rural Economy Research Lab Working Paper.
      Available at www.crerl.usask.ca.




                                                                                                                                          7
                           1981-2003 Total Job Growth and Share
                           of total employment in Mining 1981
                                      70
                                                                                       EMP GR= 32.72 - 1.01 MinSh81
                                                                                                   t = 1.88
1981-2003 % Total Employment Growth




                                                                                        2
                                      60                                               R = 0.071



                                      50

                                                                      Natural Resources                                                Louisiana
                                      40
                                                                      do not mean growth                                               Oklahoma
                                                            TX
                                      30                                                                                               Texas

                                                                                                                                       West Virginia
                                      20
                                                                                     OK
                                                                 LA                                                                    Wyoming
                                                                                                                         WY
                                      10                                   WV


                                       0
                                           0   2      4          6           8            10            12            14          16
                                                   % Share of 1981 Total Employment in Mining




           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://.bea.doc.gov/bea/regional/spi/default.cfm Retrieved on February 21, 2005                    8
                1981-2003 Total Job Growth and Share of 1981
                Employment in Other Primary Industries
                                      40
                                                                                                                                 With Alberta:
                                                                                                                                 EMP GR =25.2 - 0.13 MinSh81
1981-2003 % Total Employment Growth




                                      35                                                            BC                                       t = 0.12
                                                                                                                                  2
                                                              ON                                 PE                        AB    R = 0.0017
                                      30

                                      25                                                          NB
                                                                QC                         NS
                                      20
                                                             MB                        Natural Resources
                                                                                       do not mean growth
                                      15                                                                                                        NL
                                                                                 SK
                                      10
                                                                                                                                Without Alberta:
                                                                                                                                EMP GR = 26.0 - 0.50 MinSh81
                                       5
                                                                                                                                             t = 0.43
                                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                R = 0.026
                                       0
                                           0                   2                4              6                8               10                             12
                                                                   % Share of 1981 Total Employment in Other Primary Industries
                                      Source: Before 1987; Labour Force Historical Review CDROM 2002 Table Cd1t05an
                                      After and including 1987; Labour Force Historical Review CDROM 2003 Table Cd1t07an

                                                                                                                                                               9
                             Wyoming: Alberta on Steroids!

AB 1981-2004 population growth                                             39.6%

         AB 1981 mining share          7.13%

                                  WY’s greater natural resource intensity did
                                  not produce faster growth


WY 1981-2004 population growth    3%

         WY 1981 mining share                  14.43%

                             0%   5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
                                                                                10
What causes the Alberta Advantage?

 Good business climate & entrepreneur spirit
 Having two dynamic large cities:
    – Calgary and Edmonton
   Wonderful western amenities
   Strong human capital/education base.
   I think the 1st two are more important
   (Note: Northern Alberta is different, but it is
    < 1/10th of province‘s population)
                                                      11
                   Lessons!
 Alberta is doing something right!
 Alberta is not lucky. Booms at all times.
      Globe and Mail needs an economics lesson
  – Instead of ‘Alberta Envy’ the rest of Canada
    needs some ‘Alberta Emulation’
 Oh yeah, the Confederation is not going to
  fall apart due to Alberta prosperity
  – i.e., every doc is not going to move to Alberta
  – Another Albertan job does not steal other jobs
                                                   12
   But, I am not here to pander
 Commodity prices are cyclical.
  – What goes up, must come down.
  – I remember the 1980s crash living in Wyoming
 The current energy boom will end too.
 We must plan for the bust today when we
  have the resources.
 Hardest to plan when times are sooo good.


                                                   13
          What is Northern Alberta?
   Not just a latitude: i.e. North of 55°N, but also attitude
   Natural resources—oil sands
   Forestry, mining, farming
   Wide open spaces (lack of large cities)
   Large First Nation/Aboriginal population
   Many opportunities to build on
    – Consulting
    – Tourism
    – Unique quality of life

                                                            14
2001 Population Density per km2




                                  15
1996-2001 % Population Change




                                16
N. Alberta 1996-2001 % Pop. Change




                                17
1996-2001 Sask % Population Change




                                     18
1996 Agriculture Employment Share




                                    19
Sask. 1996 Agriculture Employment Share




                                   20
1996 Employment Share in Other Primary




                                  21
1996 Employment Share in Other Primary




                                   22
         What have we learned?
 Northern Alberta‘s population is growing.
  – Something is going right, even with low commodity
    prices over ‘96-‘01 period.
 Northern Alberta is reliant on natural resources
  – Didn‘t Mark say that was bad
 In the next decade, Northern Albertan
  communities should diversify.
  – If not, the next crash will be really hard!

                                                   23
              Opportunities
 First Nation/Aboriginals
 Education and unique mgmt experience
 Northern Alberta is fortunate to be tied to the
  broader ―Alberta Advantage.‖
  – Flexible
  – Pro-growth
  – Pragmatic
  – High amenities

                                               24
%Pop Share with University Degree:
Age 15 & over




                                 25
%Pop with Aborig. Ethnicity




                              26
 Opportunities to meet future needs
 Today‘s natural resource boom means
  finances are there.
 Enhance quality of life
  – Retain current population after boom. (not like WY)
  – Attract new/different population.
 Shift front-office work north from Calgary
  – Unique natural resource human capital
  – Become mgmt consultants for the world‘s oil sands
  – Diversify to other mgmt consulting
  – Can‘t be engineers living/working out of trailers
                                                     27
    More strategic opportunities
 Northern tourism is still mostly untapped
  – This region is a unique jewel
  – Opportunities to mkt to Americans
 Better integration of First Nations into
  regional development—win-win strategy.
 Weakness of mine or any Northern plan:
  – Not enough regional cooperation, weak
    critical population mass.
  – Cities are Canada’s engines of growth
                                              28
Communities must band together
 Canadian population growth takes place
  near urban areas of at least 10,000 people
 Regions can band together to achieve
  critical mass.
  – community clusters striving to attain critical
    mass
  – Community clusters likely need > 10,000 people
 Most growth is in the 100km circles around
  urban centres.

                                                 29
1996-2001 Population Growth and Urban
Centres in the Prairie Provinces




                                                                                    30
                            Yellow highlighted areas are census agglomeration areas (10,000+)
                            or census metropolitan areas (100,000+).
           How can we cooperate?
 This can be formal: consolidation of gov‘ts
  – Need a consensus
  – Must reflect broad regional needs
        Transportation of people/access to urban services--not just resources
        Environment/Land use
        Economic development
        Education/health
        Quality of life initiatives
        Increased political clout for common interests
 Alberta does this better! Sask has a major problem,
  too many communities would rather die than
  cooperate.

                                                                         31
 Overlay regional govt on top of municipalities
  – Economic Development Authorities
  – Transportation—critical to support the energy economy
    and to begin to build community clusters
 Nongovernment approaches
  – Larger organizations such as Chambers of Commerce,
    volunteer organizations
 Need to build regional identity
  – Despite the interdependence of communities, too many
    towns think as if they are an island.

                                                            32
  Northern Alberta Communities
 There are only 3 Northern ―growth poles‖
  – If broad regional mentality does not sink in, the
    next commodity crash will be painful.
  – i.e., inadequate institutions to address the
    economic downfall and fiscal shortfall.




                                                        33
                   Examples
 Alberta does regionalism better
 Ft. McMurray/Wood Buffalo is a great
  example of creating a region that pulls in all
  parties.
 In Sask., on the informal level, Action
  Southwest is a proactive group that has
  banded together a LARGE number of
  communities.
  – Greater Calgary is trying to informally cooperate
                                                    34
 Greater Gander and N.E. Newfoundland
 Outlook, Sask is a great example of 1st Nation
  opportunities being integrated into regional plan.
  – One hour south of Saskatoon, they see Saskatoon as an
    opportunity
 Humboldt, Sask is an example of successfully
  implementing leadership training.
  – Must be ‗informed‘ action based on actual trends of
    Canadian urbanization.
 Don‘t pick examples based on media stories
  – Ibbitson 2005 columns in Globe and Mail
      Davidson, SK is dying and lacks leadership
      Neighbouring Craik has visionary leaders and is thriving.
      But, the facts are that Davidson is actually doing better in population
       growth (1991-2001).


                                                                           35
  Northern Alberta Growth Poles
 Northern Alberta has 3 natural ―growth pole‖
  regions and 1 transportation corridor:
 Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo
 ―Cold Lake-Athabasca‖ linking to Edmonton
 Grande Prairie-High Prairie-Peace River
 High Level N-S/E-W transportation corridor
  – Needs linkage to Northern BC


                                             36
                   Conclusions
 Alberta Advantage is not luck
  – Don‘t lose sight of that and fritter away this
    opportunity
 Natural resource economies do not fare well in
  the long-run.
  – Alberta and Northern Alberta must use their wealth
    to build a different/diverse economy



                                                     37
 Enhanced quality of life linked with opportunities to
  integrate First Nations and upgrade oil sands
  expertise presents opportunities
   – This retains the high-educated workforce that has
     migrated to Northern Alberta.
   – Cities are Canada‘s long-run engines of growth and
     innovation
   – Northern Alberta communities must cooperate to build
     critical mass for economic, social and political power
 Transportation linkages for access to services and
  markets need to be enhanced.
   – Remoteness is an impediment for N. Alberta

                                                              38
   Lesson:
   Northern Alberta is growing and bustling
   But, needs to realign itself for the future
   That is why this conference can lay this
    ground work.




                                                  39
                  Thank you
   Presentation will be posted at
   Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (U of S)
   C-RERL: www.crerl.usask.ca
   Under presentations sidebar




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