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Kenyan presidential election, 2007

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
‹ 2002 Kenya presidential election, 2007 December 27, 2007

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Candidate Party Popular vote

Mwai Kibaki PNU 4,584,721 (Government) 4,578,034 (ECK)

Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki PNU President-elect Mwai Kibaki PNU

Kenya
This article is part of the series:

Politics and government of Kenya • President • Mwai Kibaki • Prime Minister • Raila Odinga • Vice-President • Kalonzo Musyoka • Ministers • National Assembly • Elections: 2007, 2002 • Constituencies of Kenya • Constitutional referendum • Provinces (mkoa) • Districts (wilaya) • Divisions (tarafa)

A presidential election was held as part of the Kenyan general election on December 27, 2007; parliamentary elections were held on the same date.[1] Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner and sworn in on December 30, despite opposition leader Raila Odinga’s claims of victory.[2][3] There is agreement in the international community that the elections were at least partially manipulated.[4] In July 2008, an exit poll comRaila Odinga missioned by the US was released, revealing ODM that Odinga won the election by a comfortable margin of 6%, 46% to 40%, well outside 4,352,993 [5] of (Government) the exit poll’s 1.3% margin of error. The election was strongly marked by tri4,352,993 (ECK) balism, with Kibaki a member of the traditionally dominant Kikuyu ethnic group getting much support amongst people of Central Kenya i.e. Kikuyu and neighbouring groups like Embu and Meru. Odinga, as a member of the Luo ethnic group, succeeded in creating a wider base by building a coalition with regional leaders from the Luhya in Western Kenya, Kalenjin from the Rift Valley and Muslim leaders from the Coast Province. The third place candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, had his base mainly amongst the Kamba. Following the announcement of Kibaki’s victory, civil unrest broke out which was often directed against members of Kibaki’s ethnic group residing outside their traditional settlement areas.[6] Kenneth Matiba of Saba Saba Asili joined the race after a 10-year political hiatus. Other candidates were Joseph Ngacha Karani (Kenya Patriotic Trust), Nixon Jeremiah Kukubo (Republican Party of Kenya), Pius Muiru (Kenya Peoples’ Party), David Waweru Ng’ethe (Chama Cha Umma) and Nazlin Omar (Workers Congress Party).[6]

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
Odinga launched his campaign in Uhuru Park on October 6, 2007.[21][22] On the same day, three ODM supporters were shot (one of them fatally), allegedly by bodyguards of Stanley Livondo, who is running as the PNU candidate for Odinga’s seat in parliament. Livondo was arrested, along with two of his bodyguards and released later.[22] In October, Odinga led Kibaki in opinion polls. Two cabinet ministers, first Health Minister Charity Ngilu and then Regional Cooperation Minister John Koech, backed Odinga in October; Kibaki dismissed Ngilu from the cabinet.[23] Pius Muiru, a bishop and the leader of Kenya Peoples Party (KPP), officially launched his bid for the presidency on October 21, 2007 at Kamukunji grounds.[24] Parliament was dissolved on Tuesday October 23rd, paving way for the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to announce the election date.[25] The date was officially announced on October 26, 2007 by the ECK, stating the elections would be held on Thursday December 27, 2007.[26] Opinion polls in late October put Odinga at 50% support, Kibaki at 39%, and Musyoka at 8%.[27] The poll released in early November put Odinga at 45%, Kibaki at 41% and Musyoka at 11%, while on November 23 a poll placed Odinga and Kibaki at about the same level, with 43.6% and 43.3% support respectively.[28] Presidential candidates presented their nomination papers on the November 14th and 15th to the ECK and 9 candidates were cleared to be on the ballot in December.[6]

Timeline and preparations
Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki declared on January 26, 2007 his intentions of running for re-election, even though he had previously declared at the 2002 elections that he needed only one term as president.[7] At the time ODM-Kenya coalition was expected to field the strongest challenger for Kibaki. The main parties affiliated to ODM-Kenya were LDP and KANU.[8] At the time of the 2002 elections, LDP was part of the NARC movement backing Kibaki, but were dismissed from the cabinet after the 2005 constitutional referendum.[9] KANU, on the other hand is a former ruling party, but the former president Daniel arap Moi was among its faction opposing its involvement with the ODM-Kenya coalition.[10] KANU and LDP had originally teamed up for the 2005 referendum, under the banner Orange Democratic Movement.[11] ODM-Kenya split in two in August 2007, with one faction (ODM-Kenya) led by Kalonzo Musyoka, while others joined the original ODM. KANU left the coalition. Former president Daniel arap Moi announced his support for the re-election of Kibaki, his former political enemy, in late August,[12] and Uhuru Kenyatta followed the suit and announced his support for Kibaki in mid-September. Kenyatta had earlier vied for presidential candidacy on the ODM ticket before he and his party KANU had ditched the coalition. KANU will field its own parliamentary candidates.[13] Several ODM members vied for presidency, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Musalia Mudavadi and Joseph Nyagah.[14] Following the August 2007 split, the ODM-K appointed Musyoka as its candidate on August 31[15][16] and the ODM elected Odinga as its candidate on September 1.[17] On September 16, 2007, Kibaki announced that he would stand as the candidate of a new alliance called the Party of National Unity, which will include a number of parties, including KANU,[18][19] DP, NarcKenya, Ford-Kenya, Ford People, and Shirikisho among others.[19] He began his presidential campaign on September 30 at Nyayo Stadium in Nairobi.[20]

Campaign issues
Some of the issues of the election being discussed by the 3 candidates were: • Economy • Infrastructure • Corruption (see Wikileaks Kenya entry[29]) • Majimbo/Ugatuzi (federalism & devolution) • Free High school Education • Universal Health care • Position of Muslims within Kenya • Constitution (Odinga promised a new constitution within six months of taking office[30])

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Poll date October 2006 [31] December 2006 [32] March 2007 [33] April 2007 [34] June 2007 [35] July 2007 [36] August 2007 [37] August 2007 [38] September 2007 [39] October 13th 2007 [40] October 23rd 2007 [41] November 9, 2007 [42] November 21, 2007 [43] November 17, 2007 [44] November 23, 2007 [45] December 7, 2007 [46] December 18, 2007 [47] Kibaki 41% 42% 51% 44.3% 45% 45% 42% 47% 38% 37% 39% 41% 41.4% 42% 43.3% 42% 43% Musyoka 20% 20% 14% 15.3% 14% 11% 11% 13% 8% 8% 8% 11% 14.7% 11% 11.4% 10% 10%

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
Odinga 13% 14% 17% 18.7% 28% 25% 25% 36% 47% 53% 50% 45% 40.7% 45% 43.6% 46% 45% 2% 2.7% 4% 3% 8% 1% Mudavadi Ruto Kenyatta 3% 3% 2% 2.6% 3% 2% 6% 5% 5% 2% 3.5% 4% 2% 1% 1%

Opinion polls
*For a documentation of more opinion polls in the runup to the Kenyan election see Polls before the Kenyan elections 2007 The June 2007 poll also featured a section on a head-to-head poll with Kibaki against each of the ODM candidates. Both Musyoka and Odinga scored 45%, indicating a dead-tie with Kibaki. The rest of the candidates scored as follows against Kibaki: Najib Balala: 43%, William Ruto: 39%, Uhuru Kenyatta: 38%.[35]

Presidential election results
An exit poll conducted from 310 polling stations in 139 constituencies (out of 210) showed Kibaki getting 50.3% of the votes compared to 40.6% for Raila Odinga.[48] On the other hand, early results by Kenyan media gave Raila Odinga a narrow lead.[49] Odinga held a strong lead in vote counting on December 28,[50] and the ODM declared victory for Odinga on December 29;[51] however, as more results were announced on the same day, the gap between the two candidates narrowed.[50][51] Early on December 30, Odinga accused the government of fraud,

Presidential votes geographically; note that the area size on the map does not indicate population density. urged Kibaki to concede defeat, and called for a recount.[52] The Electoral Commission declared Kibaki the winner later on December 30, placing him ahead of Odinga by about 232,000 votes.[53][54] According to Odinga, at

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Party PNU ODM ODM-K KPTP KPP WCPK SSA CCUP RPK Candidate Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Joseph Karani Pius Muiru Nazlin Omar Kenneth Matiba David Ng’ethe Nixon Kukubo Votes (ECK) 29 Jan 4,578,034 4,352,860 879,899 21,168 9,665 8,624 8,049 5,976 5,926

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
Votes (Kibaki Gov’t) [70] 4,584,721 4,352,993 879,903 21,171 9,667 8,624 8,046 5,976 5,927 46% 44% 9% 0.2% 0.09% 0.087% 0.081% 0.06% 0.06%

least 300,000 votes for Kibaki were falsely included in his total.[55] The Chairman of the Electoral Commission, Samuel Kivuitu, said that while irregularities did occur, they were a matter for the courts, not the Electoral Commission.[56] Following the Commission’s declaration of his victory, Kibaki was sworn in for his second term later on the same day,[54][57] calling for the "verdict of the people" to be respected and for "healing and reconciliation" to begin.[54] Kivuitu said that there were some problems in the vote counting, noting that in one constituency voter turnout was reported as 115%.[58] According to the European Union’s head observer in the election, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the election was "flawed"[50] and the Electoral Commission failed to establish "the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates."[59] The United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, said that his country had "real concerns" about the election. While the United States initially congratulated Kibaki and called for the results to be respected,[60] it also expressed concern,[61] and on January 2, 2008 a spokesman for the U.S. State Department declined to confirm U.S. recognition of Kibaki’s victory.[62] Kivuitu said on January 2 that he had been pressured by PNU and ODM-K (Kibaki’s and Kalonzo Musyoka’s parties) into announcing the results without delay, declaring Kibaki as elected winner; claiming that he did not personally know who really won.[63] Within minutes of the Commission’s declaration of Kibaki’s victory,tribe-based rioting and violence, primarily directed against Kikuyus, broke out across Kenya,[50] and the government suspended live television coverage for some days.[50][60][64][65] Odinga

alleged that "a clique of people around Kibaki" sought to rig the election, but said that democracy "is unstoppable like the flow of the Nile". The ODM announced its intention to hold a ceremony on December 31 in which Odinga would be declared the "people’s president", but police said that this could incite violence and that Odinga could be arrested if the ceremony occurred.[60] Odinga then delayed this, but called for a million-strong rally on January 3, 2008[66] and for his supporters to wear black armbands as a show of mourning.[67] Odinga said that the ODM would not negotiate with Kibaki unless he resigned, because to do so would, according to Odinga, mean acknowledging Kibaki’s legitimacy; he also said that, unless stopped, the "ruling clique" could rig the next election in five years as well, and that he was not afraid of being arrested, having been jailed many times in the past.[68] For his part, Kibaki emphasized the importance of peace, stability, and tolerance in his 2008 New Year’s message, speaking of the election as a concluded event and warning that law-breakers would be punished.[69]

Results
These are the official results as of January 29, 2008 as appears on the Electoral Commission of Kenya website. Alongside are figures put out by the Office of the Government Spokesman [70], and also appeared at media websites soon after the results were announced [71] [72].

Provincial results
NB - In addition to receiving the largest number of votes in absolute terms, a successful presidential candidate must also win 25% or

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Province NAIROBI COAST Kibaki 313,478 197,354 % Odinga %

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
Kalonzo % 8.1% 6.5% 2.3% Others % 1,845 5,909 333 Votes Cast

Registered Tu Voters 1,275,021 1,045,629 315,664

47.7% 288,922 33.1% 353,773 50.3% 91,440 50.4% 83,575

44.0% 52,974 59.4% 38,881 47.2% 4,498 5.0% 1.9%

0.3% 657,219 1.0% 595,917 0.2% 193,534

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NORTH 97,263 EASTERN EASTERN 835,481 RIFT VALLEY NYANZA Totals 818,445

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726,782 43.8% 13,229 0.8% 1,659,067 2,516,998 11,702 0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 7,215 0.4% 1,794,049 2,186,315 12,300 0.5% 2,445,488 3,358,285 11,417 1.2% 969,692 7,160 1,564,854

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CENTRAL 1,741,086 97.0% 34,046

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33.5% 1,580,880 64.6% 33,863 32.2% 639,246 65.9% 6,729

72

WESTERN 312,300 262,627

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16.9% 1,280,978 82.4% 4,470

0.5% 1,555,235 2,041,686

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4,578,034 46.4% 4,352,860 44.1% 879,899 8.9%

59,408 0.6% 9,870,201 14,304,452 69

more of the vote in at least five of Kenya’s eight provinces to avoid a runoff.

Election observers statement
The following account is drawn from the statements of four of the five domestic election observers allowed into the verification process the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) afforded political party representatives the night before the announcement of the results for the Presidency. Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ) • Count Down to Deception: 30 Hours that Destroyed Kenya • Kenyan Elections Observers’ Log: December 29-30, 2007 • Kenyan Elections Observers’ Log: the cost of anomalies, malpractices and illegalities noted to voters and their votes (spreadsheet) • Kenya 2007 General Election: Comparison of Total Parliamentary vs. Total Presidential Votes Cast ECK Figures*(spreadsheet)

was reached in late February 2008, and a coalition government, with an equal number of ministers for the PNU and the ODM, was named in April.

January 2008 Government
After being sworn in as President, Kibaki named a partial Cabinet on January 8, 2008, composed of 17 members of parliament from his party PNU and ODM-Kenya which entered into a coalition agreement, along with KANU. A number of further cabinet slots were left temporarily open, presumably to give space for negotiations with the opposition ODM which, however, immediately challenged the constitutionality of this government. This cabinet consisted of: • (1) Vice President and Minister for Home Affairs: Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka • (2) Minister of State for Provincial Administration and Internal Security, Office of the President: Professor George Saitoti • (3) Minister of State for Defence, Office of the President: Yussuf Mohamed Haji • (4) Minister of State for Special Programmes, Office of the President: Dr. Naomi Namsi Shaban • (5) Minister for Public Service, Office of the President : Asman Abongotum Kamama • (6) Minister for Finance : Amos Muhinga Kimunya • (7) Minister for Education : Professor Sam Ongeri

Aftermath
Riots erupted in Kenya after Kibaki was declared re-elected as President. Certain opposition supporters, angered by alleged electoral manipulation by President Kibaki, allegedly incited civil unrest. The unrest involved ethnic violence between members of different tribes, particularly between the Kikuyu and the Luo.[73] Eventually, a powersharing agreement, according to which Kibaki would remain President and Odinga would gain the new post of Prime Minister,

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
• (8) Minister for Foreign Affairs : Moses Wetangula • (9) Minister for Local Government : Uhuru Kenyatta • (10) Minister for Information and Communications : Samuel Lesuron Poghisio • (11) Minister for Water and Irrigation : John Munyes • (12) Minister for Energy : Kiraitu Murungi • (13) Minister for Roads and Public Works : John Njoroge Michuki • (14) Minister for Science and Technology : Noah M. Wekesa • (15) Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs : Martha Karua • (16) Minister for East African Community : Dr. Wilfred Machage • (17) Minister for Transport: Chirau Ali Mwakwere

Kenyan presidential election, 2007

[6] ^ Nine to fight it out as Kibaki clearedThe Standard, November 16, 2007 [7] Kibaki declares he is ready for a second presidential term The Standard [8] ODM’s long and bumpy journey The Standard, October 7, 2007 [9] Raila to President: Spare me the blame, I was in your Cabinet for only three years Daily Nation, October 20, 2007 [10] No Let-Up in Kanu Row Over ODM Daily Nation, November 17, 2006 [11] Q&A: Kenya political crisis BBC News, December 8, 2007 [12] "Moi throws weight behind Kibaki", BBC News, August 28, 2007. [13] "Ex-rival backs Kibaki re-election", BBC News, September 14, 2007. [14] "It’s make or break as ODM leaders start forum to decide on candidate", Daily Nation, January 11, 2007. [15] Malcolm Webb, "Kenya’s Opposition Chooses Presidential Candidate", VOA While few reports mentioned it, the US, actNews, August 31, 2007. ing through USAID commissioned the Inter[16] Eric Shimoli and Dave Opiyo, "Kenya: national Republican Institute, to conduct an Kalonzo Picked to Hoist ODM-K Flag", exit poll during the election. IRI initially did The Nation (allAfrica.com), September 1, not have confidence in the integrity of the 2007. poll data. It therefore believed the poll to be [17] "Kenya: It’s Raila for President", East invalid and decided not to release the poll. Africa Standard (allAfrica.com), However, after an audit of the poll data file, September 1, 2007. IRI reversed its earlier position and released [18] "Kenyan president announces new party the poll in July 2008.[74][75] affiliation for re-election bid", Associated The poll indicated that Odinga won the Press (International Herald Tribune), election by a margin of 6%, 46% to 40%, well September 16, 2007. outside of the exit poll’s 1.3% margin of er[19] ^ "Kenya president eyes re-election", ror. [5] [76] BBC News, September 16, 2007. [20] "Kibaki: I deserve another term", AFP (News24.com), September 30, 2007. [21] Anthony Kaikai, "ODM party launches its [1] ECK sets poll date as Raila maintains Presidential campaigns", Kenya lead The Standard, October 26, 2007 Broadcasting Corporation, October 6, [2] "Dozens dead in Kenya poll clashes", 2007. BBC news(BBC), December 31, 2007. [22] ^ "Kenya opposition kicks off campaign, [3] "Protests as Kenya’s president begins says 3 supporters shot", Associated Press 2nd term after allegations of rigging, (International Herald Tribune), October deadly violence", Associated Press 6, 2007. (International Herald Tribune), [23] "Kenyan presidential hopeful gains December 31, 2007. favour", AFP (IOL), October 12, 2007. [4] CTV.ca | Kenya election was rigged, U.S. [24] Bishop tells voters to send off Kibaki and envoy says his team The Standard, October 22, 2007 [5] ^ The Nation, July 11, 2008 [25] Martin Mutua and Edith Fortunate, http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/ "Curtain falls on Ninth Parliament", The nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=2&newsid=127059 Standard, October 23, 2007. US-funded exit poll says Raila won [26] Kenya Elections set for Dec 27 elections Nationmedia.com, October 26, 2007

US Exit Poll

References

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[27] "Kenya: Could the president be ousted?", The Economist, 1 November 2007 [28] "Kibaki neck-and-neck with challenger", Reuters (IOL), November 23, 2007. [29] http://www.wikileaks.org/wiki/ Category:Kenya [30] BBC NEWS | Africa | Kenyans ready for December poll [31] Survey shows Kibaki’s popularity on the rise The Standard (Poll by Steadman International) [32] Kibaki leads again in poll The Standard (Poll by Steadman International) [33] Raila finally Hummers Kalonzo The Standard (Poll by Steadman International) [34] It’s Kibaki-Raila battle The Standard (Poll by International Republican Institute) [35] ^ Why Kibaki will win polls The Standard (Poll by Research and Marketing Services (RMS)) [36] Kalonzo drops, Raila shoots up, Kibaki holds on The Standard (Poll by Steadman International) [37] Raila preferred ODM flagbearer, poll shows The Standard, August 8, 2007 (Poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting and Harris Interactive Global) [38] Kibaki, Raila ahead of pack in new opinion poll The Standard, August 30, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) [39] Raila tops table The Daily Nation, September 29, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) [40] Raila widens gap The Standard Online Edition, October 13, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) [41] Raila’s third win The Standard Online Edition, October 23rd, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) [42] Raila drops in new ratings Daily Nation, November 9, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International) [43] Latest surveys forecast tight race for State House Daily Nation (Poll by Consumer Insight), November 17, 2007 [44] New poll predicts close race Daily Nation (Poll by Gallup), November 21, 2007 [45] Raila, Kibaki in nip and tuck race Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), November 23, 2007 [46] Raila maintains lead in latest poll Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), December 7, 2007

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
[47] Last poll, last push The Standard (Poll by Steadman International), December 18, 2007 [48] IED Africa: General Elections 2007: Presidential Exit Polls [49] Reuters, December 28, 2007: [1] Early results show Kibaki trailing in Kenya vote [50] ^ Jeffrey Gettleman, "Disputed Vote Plunges Kenya Into Bloodshed", The New York Times, December 31, 2007. [51] ^ "Kenya opposition declares victory", AFP (IOL), December 29, 2007. [52] Stephen Ndegwa, "Kenya: Raila Calls for Vote Recount", The East African Standard (allAfrica.com), December 30, 2007. [53] Barney Jopson, "Kenyan police try to block opposition rally", Reuters (Financial Times), January 3, 2008. [54] ^ "Kibaki named victor in Kenya vote", BBC News, December 20, 2007. [55] "Kenyans riot after ’rigged’ election", AFP (theage.com.au), December 31, 2007. [56] Jeffrey Gettleman, "Tribal violence breaks out in Kenya over disputed election result", International Herald Tribune, December 30, 2007. [57] Stephanie McCrummen, "Incumbent Declared Winner in Kenya’s Disputed Election", The Washington Post, December 31, 2007, page A11. [58] "Kenya election results expected today", SABC News, December 30, 2007. [59] "Kibaki re-elected as president of Kenya", Reuters (Financial Times), December 30, 2008. [60] ^ "Odinga rejects Kenya poll result", BBC News, December 31, 2007. [61] Mike Pflanz, "Kenya election riots leave more than 120 dead", Telegraph.co.uk, December 31, 2007. [62] David Gollust, "US in Diplomatic Push to End Kenya Violence", VOA News, January 2, 2007. [63] The Standard | Online Edition | I acted under a pressure, says Kivuitu [64] The Nation, "Kenya: Violence Erupts After Kibaki Sworn in", The Nation (allafrica.com), December 30, 2007. [65] The Nation, "Kenya: Death and Chaos After Kibaki Win", The Nation (allafrica.com), December 31, 2007.

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[66] "Kenya: Police Claim Shoot To Kill Orders", Associated Press (CBS News), December 31, 2007. [67] Nick Wadhams, "Will Kenya’s Vote Lead to Tribal War?", TIME.com, December 31, 2007. [68] "Raila’s terms for talks with Kibaki on crisis", Daily Nation (Kenya), January 1, 2008. [69] Fred Mukinda and Samwel Kumba, "Kibaki warns law breakers of stern action", Daily Nation (Kenya), January 1, 2008. [70] ^ Office of the Government Spokesman [71] released [72] same figures in BBC-report [73] "Scores Dead in Kenya Poll Clashes". BBC. 2007-12-31. http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/africa/7165602.stm. Retrieved on 2007-12-31. [74] IRI Statement on Kenya Election Day Poll (http://www.iri.org/africa/kenya/ 2008-08-14-kenya.asp) [75] Memo from Bob Carpenter, American Viewpoint to IRI "Subject: Kenya Exit Poll", July 7, 2008

Kenyan presidential election, 2007
[76] International Republican Institute (IRI) Strategic Public Relations and Research, "Kenya Election day Poll",www.iri.org, December 27, 2007.

External links
• Election results - Government Website • BBC summary (08-01-2008): "Kenya’s dubious election" • Electoral Commission of Kenya -slow in updating• Electionkenya.com -preelection page, shows no results• Daily Nation - Kenya Elections 2007 results are no more visible • The Standard - Election Platform - results not updated • How Kenya polls were messed up - by Tabu Butagira & Jeff Otieno, Monitor, Uganda January 3, 2008 • Count Down to Deception: 30 Hours that Destroyed Kenya - KPTJ Pambazuka News - check pdfs at bottom

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