Source www smartmoney com Rf 4 42 Market Risk Premium 4 00 P E 5 by fun14080

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Home Value Estimate document sample

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									* Source: www.smartmoney.com
                                             Rf:      4.42%
                          Market Risk Premium:        4.00%
                                         (P/E)5:       15.35
                      Growth Adjustment Factor:          0.50

                     Gardner Denver   IDEX         Nordson       Pentair       Roper
                         GDI           IEX         NDSN           PNR          ROP
              E0:           $3.04         $2.39       $2.78          $2.23        $1.98
              D0:           $0.00         $0.48       $0.65          $0.52        $0.27
      Analysts' g:        10.50%        14.40%      12.00%         15.00%       16.00%
                g:         5.25%         7.20%       6.00%          7.50%        8.00%
                b:            0.54          0.96        0.81           0.98         1.15
              P0:          $51.01        $42.16      $43.86         $36.90       $39.07

Value Estimate (present value of expected dividends and price in 5 years)
             V0:         $43.82         $37.25        $42.58          $35.46     $30.31

Apparent Misvaluation
         misval:      16.41%            13.18%        3.00%          4.06%      28.92%
          Rank:        4                 3           1              2            5

Implied Growth Rates
             g*:            8.50%        9.95%        6.53%          8.33%      13.80%




Appropriate Discount Rate (from CAPM)
              R:        6.58%       8.26%              7.66%         8.34%       9.02%

Forecasted Dividends
             D1:             $0.00        $0.51        $0.69          $0.56       $0.29
              D2:            $0.00        $0.55        $0.73          $0.60       $0.31
              D3:            $0.00        $0.59        $0.77          $0.65       $0.34
              D4:            $0.00        $0.63        $0.82          $0.69       $0.37
              D5:            $0.00        $0.68        $0.87          $0.75       $0.40

Forecasted Earnings
              E5:            $3.93        $3.38        $3.72          $3.20       $2.91
 Forecasted Price in 5 Years
               P5:        $60.26       $51.93        $57.10    $49.14   $44.65


 Forecasted Dividends Using Implied Growth Rate
              D1:         $0.00        $0.53          $0.69     $0.56    $0.31
              D2:         $0.00        $0.58          $0.74     $0.61    $0.35
              D3:         $0.00        $0.58          $0.74     $0.61    $0.35
              D4:         $0.00        $0.58          $0.74     $0.61    $0.35
              D5:         $0.00        $0.95          $1.34     $1.03    $0.48

 Forecasted Earnings Using Implied Growth Rate
               E5:        $4.57         $3.84         $3.81     $3.33    $3.78

 Forecasted Price in 5 Years Based on Implied Growth Rate
               P5:        $70.15        $58.94        $58.54   $51.06   $57.99

 Value Estimate
             V0*:        $51.01        $42.13        $43.82    $36.87   $39.06

 Apparent Misvaluation
           misval:      0.00%          0.07%         0.09%     0.09%    0.03%
avg misval using g:    13.11%
* Source: www.smartmoney.com
                                             Rf:      4.42%
                          Market Risk Premium:        4.00%
                                         (P/S)5:         1.79
                      Growth Adjustment Factor:          0.50

                     Gardner Denver   IDEX         Nordson       Pentair       Roper
                         GDI           IEX         NDSN           PNR          ROP
              S0:          $52.58        $19.30      $22.97         $27.83       $15.35
              D0:           $0.00         $0.48       $0.65          $0.52        $0.27
      Analysts' g:        10.50%        14.40%      12.00%         15.00%       16.00%
                g:         5.25%         7.20%       6.00%          7.50%        8.00%
                b:            0.54          0.96        0.81           0.98         1.15
              P0:          $51.01        $42.16      $43.86         $36.90       $39.07

Value Estimate (present value of expected dividends and price in 5 years)
             V0:         $88.22         $35.15        $41.07          $50.36     $27.48

Apparent Misvaluation
         misval:      -42.18%           19.93%        6.79%        -26.73%      42.19%
          Rank:        1                 4           3              2            5

Implied Growth Rates
             g*:           -5.67%       11.30%        7.36%          0.74%      16.13%




Appropriate Discount Rate (from CAPM)
              R:        6.58%       8.26%              7.66%         8.34%       9.02%

Forecasted Dividends
             D1:             $0.00        $0.51        $0.69          $0.56       $0.29
              D2:            $0.00        $0.55        $0.73          $0.60       $0.31
              D3:            $0.00        $0.59        $0.77          $0.65       $0.34
              D4:            $0.00        $0.63        $0.82          $0.69       $0.37
              D5:            $0.00        $0.68        $0.87          $0.75       $0.40

Forecasted Sales
              S5:           $67.91       $27.32       $30.74         $39.95      $22.55
 Forecasted Price in 5 Years
               P5:       $121.32       $48.81        $54.92    $71.38   $40.29


 Forecasted Dividends Using Implied Growth Rate
              D1:         $0.00        $0.53          $0.70     $0.52    $0.31
              D2:         $0.00        $0.59          $0.75     $0.53    $0.36
              D3:         $0.00        $0.59          $0.75     $0.53    $0.36
              D4:         $0.00        $0.59          $0.75     $0.53    $0.36
              D5:         $0.00        $0.97          $1.36     $0.89    $0.50

 Forecasted Sales Using Implied Growth Rate
               S5:        $39.27       $32.97        $32.76    $28.88   $32.42

 Forecasted Price in 5 Years Based on Implied Growth Rate
               P5:        $70.15        $58.90        $58.52   $51.60   $57.93

 Value Estimate
             V0*:        $51.01        $42.16        $43.86    $36.90   $39.07

 Apparent Misvaluation
           misval:       0.00%         0.00%         0.00%     0.00%    0.00%
avg misval using g:      0.00%
* Source: www.smartmoney.com
                                            Rf:       4.42%
                          Market Risk Premium:        4.00%
                                      (P/FCF)5:        19.80
                      Growth Adjustment Factor:          0.50

                     Gardner Denver   IDEX        Nordson        Pentair       Roper
                         GDI          IEX          NDSN           PNR          ROP
           FCF0:            $2.17        $2.28        $2.83          $2.09        $1.75
              D0:           $0.00        $0.48        $0.65          $0.52        $0.27
      Analysts' g:        10.50%       14.40%       12.00%         15.00%       16.00%
                g:         5.25%        7.20%        6.00%          7.50%        8.00%
                b:            0.54         0.96         0.81           0.98         1.15
              P0:          $51.01       $42.16       $43.86         $36.90       $39.07

Value Estimate (present value of expected dividends and price in 5 years)
             V0:         $40.36         $45.32        $54.96          $42.35     $34.38

Apparent Misvaluation
         misval:      26.39%            -6.97%      -20.20%        -12.87%      13.65%
          Rank:        5                3            1              2            4

Implied Growth Rates
             g*:     10.30%             6.79%         2.51%          5.88%      11.66%




Appropriate Discount Rate (from CAPM)
              R:        6.58%       8.26%              7.66%         8.34%       9.02%

Forecasted Dividends
             D1:             $0.00       $0.51         $0.69          $0.56       $0.29
              D2:            $0.00       $0.55         $0.73          $0.60       $0.31
              D3:            $0.00       $0.59         $0.77          $0.65       $0.34
              D4:            $0.00       $0.63         $0.82          $0.69       $0.37
              D5:            $0.00       $0.68         $0.87          $0.75       $0.40

Forecasted Free Cash Flow
           FCF5:         $2.80           $3.23         $3.79          $3.00       $2.57
 Forecasted Price in 5 Years
               P5:        $55.50       $63.92        $75.00    $59.42   $50.92


 Forecasted Dividends Using Implied Growth Rate
              D1:         $0.00        $0.51          $0.67     $0.55    $0.30
              D2:         $0.00        $0.55          $0.68     $0.58    $0.34
              D3:         $0.00        $0.55          $0.68     $0.58    $0.34
              D4:         $0.00        $0.55          $0.68     $0.58    $0.34
              D5:         $0.00        $0.89          $1.24     $0.99    $0.46

 Forecasted Free Cash Flow Using Implied Growth Rate
            FCF5:         $3.54         $3.17        $3.20      $2.78    $3.04

 Forecasted Price in 5 Years Based on Implied Growth Rate
               P5:        $70.15        $62.70        $63.44   $55.08   $60.17

 Value Estimate
             V0*:        $51.01        $44.53        $46.98    $39.45   $40.43

 Apparent Misvaluation
           misval:       0.00%         -5.33%        -6.65%    -6.46%   -3.36%
avg misval using g:      0.00%

								
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