Index of Leading Economic Indicators Historical

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					Economic Indicators/Statistics



              INLS 227 Spring 2005
      Major federal agencies involved in
         dissemination of statistics

Bureau of the Census           National Agricultural Statistics
                               Service

Bureau of Justice Statistics   National Center for Health
                               Statistics

                               Energy Information
Bureau of Labor Statistics
                               Administration

Bureau of Transportation       National Center for Education
Statistics                     Statistics
Other federal agencies that use and
           analyze data
 Council of Economic Advisors
 Congressional Budget Office
 Bureau of Economic Analysis (part of
 DOC)
 D of Agriculture’s Economic Research
 Service
Non-federal agencies that produce
        and analyze data
American Chamber of Commerce
Researchers Association (ACCRA Index)
  Cost of Living Index by major metro area
  and items
The Conference Board -not-for-profit
organization
Federal Reserve System
                Business Cycles
                   Attempt to understand cycle behaviors,
                   thereby discovering key indicators
                   Long-term cyclical patterns
                   Grow and contract


Economic Indicators
   Activities that have direct consequences on future events
      Building permits
      New business incorporations
      Inventory levels
      Orders by manufacturers for equipment
      Average work week of production workers
      Stock price fluctuations
        Basic Statistical Concepts
Sampling
  Use a smaller segment of the unit being studied to
  make inferences about entire unit.
Time Series
  Like data collected that measure change over time.
        Unadjusted, seasonally adjusted
Forecasts and Projections
  Predictions of future, forecasts are shorter, projections
  tend to include more years.
Index numbers
  Ratio of one number to another, used for comparisons.
  Can measure change over time or compare current.
     Important Economic Statistics
1. Federal Economic Indicators
2. Index of Leading Economic Indicators
3. GNP: The National Income and Product
     Accounts (NIPA)
4.   GDP
5.   Labor Force Data
6.   Price Levels and Inflation (Consumer
     Price Index – Producer Price Index)
7.   Other Key Indicators
         Federal deficit
         Federal budget
         Balance of Payments
         Money Stock (supply)
    Locating Timely Economic
           Information
Obtain numbers immediately
  Press releases to media
       News wire services
           Reuters, CNNfn, Dow Jones
       Television, Radio
  Consult standard release dates
       CPI released by BLS during 3rd week of each
       month
       Other Economic Indicators release dates –
       found online
Locating Economic/Statistics
        Information
(quarterly, monthly, weekly)

 Survey of Current Business
 Monthly Labor Review
 Economic Indicators
 CPI Detailed Report
 Federal Reserve Board
 Treasury Bulletin
 Employment and Earnings
         Locating Economic Information
    Basic Aggregators of Long Term Economic
                    Statistics

Statistical Abstract of the     Handbook of U.S. Labor
  U.S.                             Statistics
Historical Statistics of the    Economic Indicators
  US Colonial Times to             Handbook
  1970
Business Statistics of the       International Financial
  U.S.                             Statistics Yearbook
Economic Report of the            (online, cd-rom)
  President                      Statistical Yearbook
                  S&P Statistical Service
 Locating Statistical Information

Determine which government agency or
private organization is responsible for
collecting data
Consult publications
Not perfect – Federal Reserve Board publishes
Index of Industrial Production
Rely on guides to statistical sources
      Using Guides to Statistical
             Information
Footnotes to Statistical Abstract of the US
Statistics Sources (Gale Publication - print)
Encyclopedia of Business Information Sources
(print)
LexisNexis Statistical
Bibliographies and subject guides
     U of Michigan Statistics
Guide to Economic Indicators (print)
Google, Yahoo …
FedStats http://www.fedstats.gov

				
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Description: Index of Leading Economic Indicators Historical document sample