Rupee Report
April 29, 2009
Market Recap: Spot USDINR strengthened further in Tuesday's as weak equity indices as well as strong dollar supported the pair. Domestic equity indices continued to slide through the session. Noting this, banks continued with dollar purchases expecting FII selling. Dollar demand from importers was strong ahead of month end. Demand for greenback was also strong with a long weekend approaching starting Thursday. RBI on Tuesday, bought oil bonds worth 4.90 billion rupees from BPCL, 2.50 billion rupees from HPCL and 5.25 billion from IOC under special market operations. Under SMO, the central bank provides dollar liquidity to oil companies through purchase of oil bonds. SEBI data on FII trends shows them to be net equity buyers on Apr 27 to the tune of 368.10 million USD and 1.33 billion USD in Apr so far. FIIs have also turned net buyers in 2009 to the extent of 94.70 million USD. At the start of April, FIIs were net sellers to the extent of 1.34 billion dollars in Indian equities for 2009. Spot USDINR ended at 50.52 from 50.26 Monday. 1-month dollar/rupee futures contract expired Tuesday and the settlement was at RBI's reference rate 50.44. Key domestic equity indices ended down 3% tracking major Asian indices. Banks, metals and realty shares were among the major laggards. Investor profit booking continued as concerns of swine flu outbreak across the globe remain with reports of new cases cropping up. 1-day overnight borrowing rate ended flat at 3.25%, yet again with supplies more than ample to meet reserve requirements of banks. However the rate was not under pressure as many banks parked their funds in RBI's 3.25% 1-day reverse repo tender. In overseas market, USD weakened against Euro on increased risk-appetite, following a better than expected consumer confidence data as well as comments from ECB member Bini Smaghi. Bini Smaghi said that central banks must think about an exit strategy when they decide to employ non-standard policies to spur growth, suggesting that quantitative easing by ECB may not be over yet.U.S. consumer confidence rose in April to its highest this year to 39.2 in April from an upwardly revised 26.9 in March, with median expectations at 29.8. Market Outlook: Spot USDINR is likely to weaken on negative cues from currencies and equities. USD was trading weaker against majors and Asian units in Asian trade session. This could weigh on the domestic pair. Besides this domestic equity indices are expected to open firm in line with major Asian indices. Hang Seng was at 14784 (+229 points or 1.58%). Nikkei is closed Wednesday. SGX CNX Nifty May was at 3400 (31.50 points or 0.9%). Spot USDINR is seen trading in 50.20-50.60 range per dollar. A strong fall in USDINR could be limited as importer dollar demand has been strong ahead of month end. Domestic currency futures exchanges will be closed Thursday for phase-3 of General Elections which includes Mumbai.
INR Onshore-Forward Curve
51.80 51.40 51.00 50.60 50.20 49.80 49.40 49.00 One Month Three Month Six Month Spot One Year
27-Apr
Per USD
28-Apr
NSE Contract Expiry Date 28-Apr-09 27-May-09 26-Jun-09 29-Jul-09 27-Aug-09 28-Sep-09 28-Sep-09 28-Oct-09 26-Nov-09 29-Dec-09 27-Jan-10 Total MCX-SX Contract Expiry Date 28-Apr-09 27-May-09 26-Jun-09 29-Jul-09 27-Aug-09 28-Sep-09 Total BSE Contract Expiry Date 28-Apr-09 Total India Interbank
Open 50 50.47 50.65 50.75 50.58 51.1 50.9 50.9 0 51.36 50.65
High 50.17 50.70 50.85 50.95 51.00 51.13 50.90 50.90 0.00 51.36 51.20
Low 49.80 50.42 50.56 50.70 50.58 51.06 50.90 0.00 51.36 50.65 0.00
Close 49.97 50.65 50.79 50.90 51.00 51.06 50.90 0.00 51.36 51.20 0.00
Prv close Volume (lots) Open Interest 49.86 188,100 127,526 50.42 438,181 158,223 50.58 7,365 22,770 50.66 977 3,197 50.79 131 4,098 50.90 51.00 50.92 51.03 51.10 51.21 27 5 5 0 8 2 634,799 1,523 1,081 1,081 1,837 728 99 322,064
Open 50.41 50.45 50.9375 50.595 0 0
High 50.70 50.86 50.94 51.11 0.00 0.00
Low 50.41 50.45 50.82 50.60 0.00 0.00
Close 50.64 50.76 50.82 51.02 50.86 50.97
Prv Close Volume (lots) Open Interest 50.42 417,711 101,008 50.58 50.65 50.76 50.86 50.97 2,941 31 12 0 0 420,695 8,471 2,826 87 15 15 112,407
Open 50.185
High 0.00
Low 0.00
Close 50.64
Prv Close Volume (lots) Open Interest 49.98 0 0 0 _____ Six month _____ Close Prev 51.26 50.98 2.93 2.86 51.46 51.38 13.1425 13.2425 ___YEN___ 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 52.63 51.69 Key International Interest Rates Current Prev U.S. 0-0.25 0-0.25 E.U. 1.25 1.50 U.K 0.50 1.00 Japan 0.10 0.10 (29) 368.10 0.77 In Million for Jan 2009 In USD Million on Apr 28 In USD Billion in Feb 2009 _____ One year _____ Close Prev 51.7 51.4 2.34 2.26 51.98 51.85 13.64 13.6425
Rupee/USD Forward Premia/Dis Rupee/USD (NDF) Rupee Option Implied Vol (%) RBI Reference Rate INR Stats Low since 1997 High since 1997 2009 Low 2009 High India Statistics GDP Inflation (WPI) IIP Forex Reserves Other Markets Equity Markets BSE NSE Nikkei 225 FT-SE 100 Nasdaq Dow Jones
_____ Spot-rates _____ Close Prev 50.52 50.2625
_____ One month _____ Close Prev 50.68 50.43 3.80 4.00 50.58 50.48 12.34 12.325 ___GBP___ 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 73.45 72.86 Key Currencies Close 1.3149 1.4633 96.450 1.1427 Prev 1.3036 1.4645 96.780 1.1558
____ Three month ____ Close Prev 50.96 50.70 3.48 3.48 51.13 50.90 13.1425 13.2425 ___EURO___ 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 65.68 65.72
___USD___ 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 50.44 49.98
51.97 35.70 51.97 48.26 5.3 0.26 -1.20 253.0
Euro Pound Yen Swiss-Fr
Key India Interest Rates Current Prev Call rate 3.30 3.30 Mibor (1 mth) 4.23 4.30 RBI Repo 4.75 5.00 Rev Repo 3.25 3.50 RBI USD purchase/sale FII Net Equity Investments Ext Com Borrowings/FCCB
% growth in GDP Oct-Dec 08 % chg yoy for the week ended Apr 11 %change mom for Feb 2009 In US $ billion as of Apr 10
Close 11,001.8 3,362.4 8,493.8 4,096.4 1,673.8 8,017.0
Change (370.10) (107.65) (232.57) (70.61) (5.60) (8.05)
________________ Bullion ________________ Bullion Close Change Gold $/Oz 893.4 (13.13) Silver $/Oz 12.5 (0.43) MCX-Gold 10gm 14,515.0 (195.00) MCX-Silver 1Kg 20,879.0 (580.00)
__________ Energy __________ $/barrel Close Change NYMEX-WTI 49.9 (0.22) Brent 50.0 (0.33)
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