Rupee Report
April 29, 2009
Market Recap:
Spot USDINR strengthened further in Tuesday's as weak equity indices as well as strong dollar supported the pair. Domestic equity
indices continued to slide through the session. Noting this, banks continued with dollar purchases expecting FII selling. Dollar
demand from importers was strong ahead of month end. Demand for greenback was also strong with a long weekend approaching
starting Thursday. RBI on Tuesday, bought oil bonds worth 4.90 billion rupees from BPCL, 2.50 billion rupees from HPCL and 5.25
billion from IOC under special market operations. Under SMO, the central bank provides dollar liquidity to oil companies through
purchase of oil bonds. SEBI data on FII trends shows them to be net equity buyers on Apr 27 to the tune of 368.10 million USD
and 1.33 billion USD in Apr so far. FIIs have also turned net buyers in 2009 to the extent of 94.70 million USD. At the start of
April, FIIs were net sellers to the extent of 1.34 billion dollars in Indian equities for 2009.
Spot USDINR ended at 50.52 from 50.26 Monday. 1-month dollar/rupee futures contract expired Tuesday and the settlement was
at RBI's reference rate 50.44.
Key domestic equity indices ended down 3% tracking major Asian indices. Banks, metals and realty shares were among the major
laggards. Investor profit booking continued as concerns of swine flu outbreak across the globe remain with reports of new cases
cropping up.
1-day overnight borrowing rate ended flat at 3.25%, yet again with supplies more than ample to meet reserve requirements of
banks. However the rate was not under pressure as many banks parked their funds in RBI's 3.25% 1-day reverse repo tender.
In overseas market, USD weakened against Euro on increased risk-appetite, following a better than expected consumer confidence
data as well as comments from ECB member Bini Smaghi. Bini Smaghi said that central banks must think about an exit strategy
when they decide to employ non-standard policies to spur growth, suggesting that quantitative easing by ECB may not be over
yet.U.S. consumer confidence rose in April to its highest this year to 39.2 in April from an upwardly revised 26.9 in March, with
median expectations at 29.8.
Market Outlook:
Spot USDINR is likely to weaken on negative cues from currencies and equities. USD was trading weaker against majors and Asian
units in Asian trade session. This could weigh on the domestic pair. Besides this domestic equity indices are expected to open firm
in line with major Asian indices. Hang Seng was at 14784 (+229 points or 1.58%). Nikkei is closed Wednesday. SGX CNX Nifty
May was at 3400 (31.50 points or 0.9%). Spot USDINR is seen trading in 50.20-50.60 range per dollar. A strong fall in USDINR
could be limited as importer dollar demand has been strong ahead of month end.
Domestic currency futures exchanges will be closed Thursday for phase-3 of General Elections which includes Mumbai.
INR Onshore-Forward Curve
51.80
51.40
51.00
Per USD
50.60
50.20
49.80
49.40
49.00
Month
Month
Month
Year
Spot
One
Three
One
Six
28-Apr 27-Apr
NSE
Contract Expiry Date Open High Low Close Prv close Volume (lots) Open Interest
28-Apr-09 50 50.17 49.80 49.97 49.86 188,100 127,526
27-May-09 50.47 50.70 50.42 50.65 50.42 438,181 158,223
26-Jun-09 50.65 50.85 50.56 50.79 50.58 7,365 22,770
29-Jul-09 50.75 50.95 50.70 50.90 50.66 977 3,197
27-Aug-09 50.58 51.00 50.58 51.00 50.79 131 4,098
28-Sep-09 51.1 51.13 51.06 51.06 50.90 27 1,523
28-Sep-09 50.9 50.90 50.90 50.90 51.00 5 1,081
28-Oct-09 50.9 50.90 0.00 0.00 50.92 5 1,081
26-Nov-09 0 0.00 51.36 51.36 51.03 0 1,837
29-Dec-09 51.36 51.36 50.65 51.20 51.10 8 728
27-Jan-10 50.65 51.20 0.00 0.00 51.21 2 99
Total 634,799 322,064
MCX-SX
Contract Expiry Date Open High Low Close Prv Close Volume (lots) Open Interest
28-Apr-09 50.41 50.70 50.41 50.64 50.42 417,711 101,008
27-May-09 50.45 50.86 50.45 50.76 50.58 2,941 8,471
26-Jun-09 50.9375 50.94 50.82 50.82 50.65 31 2,826
29-Jul-09 50.595 51.11 50.60 51.02 50.76 12 87
27-Aug-09 0 0.00 0.00 50.86 50.86 0 15
28-Sep-09 0 0.00 0.00 50.97 50.97 0 15
Total 420,695 112,407
BSE
Contract Expiry Date Open High Low Close Prv Close Volume (lots) Open Interest
28-Apr-09 50.185 0.00 0.00 50.64 49.98 0 -
Total 0 0
India Interbank _____ Spot-rates _____ _____ One month _____ ____ Three month ____ _____ Six month _____ _____ One year _____
Close Prev Close Prev Close Prev Close Prev Close Prev
Rupee/USD 50.52 50.2625 50.68 50.43 50.96 50.70 51.26 50.98 51.7 51.4
Forward Premia/Dis 3.80 4.00 3.48 3.48 2.93 2.86 2.34 2.26
Rupee/USD (NDF) 50.58 50.48 51.13 50.90 51.46 51.38 51.98 51.85
Rupee Option Implied Vol (%) 12.34 12.325 13.1425 13.2425 13.1425 13.2425 13.64 13.6425
___USD___ ___GBP___ ___EURO___ ___YEN___
RBI Reference Rate 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 28/04/2009 27/04/2009 28/04/2009 27/04/2009
50.44 49.98 73.45 72.86 65.68 65.72 52.63 51.69
INR Stats Key Currencies Key India Interest Rates Key International Interest Rates
Close Prev Current Prev Current Prev
Low since 1997 51.97 Euro 1.3149 1.3036 Call rate 3.30 3.30 U.S. 0-0.25 0-0.25
High since 1997 35.70 Pound 1.4633 1.4645 Mibor (1 mth) 4.23 4.30 E.U. 1.25 1.50
2009 Low 51.97 Yen 96.450 96.780 RBI Repo 4.75 5.00 U.K 0.50 1.00
2009 High 48.26 Swiss-Fr 1.1427 1.1558 Rev Repo 3.25 3.50 Japan 0.10 0.10
India Statistics
GDP 5.3 % growth in GDP Oct-Dec 08 RBI USD purchase/sale (29) In Million for Jan 2009
Inflation (WPI) 0.26 % chg yoy for the week ended Apr 11 FII Net Equity Investments 368.10 In USD Million on Apr 28
IIP -1.20 %change mom for Feb 2009 Ext Com Borrowings/FCCB 0.77 In USD Billion in Feb 2009
Forex Reserves 253.0 In US $ billion as of Apr 10
Other Markets
Equity Markets Close Change ________________ Bullion ________________ __________ Energy __________
BSE 11,001.8 (370.10) Bullion Close Change $/barrel Close Change
NSE 3,362.4 (107.65) Gold $/Oz 893.4 (13.13) NYMEX-WTI 49.9 (0.22)
Nikkei 225 8,493.8 (232.57) Silver $/Oz 12.5 (0.43) Brent 50.0 (0.33)
FT-SE 100 4,096.4 (70.61) MCX-Gold 10gm 14,515.0 (195.00)
Nasdaq 1,673.8 (5.60) MCX-Silver 1Kg 20,879.0 (580.00)
Dow Jones 8,017.0 (8.05)
MF Global Commodities India Pvt. Ltd.
This report is issued by MF Global Commodities India Pvt. Limited, is authorised and regulated by FMC. MF Global Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. is a member of MF Global. References to "MFGCIPL" in this report shall mean MF Global
Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. unless otherwise stated. The report was prepared and distributed by MFGCIPL for information purposes only. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the
purchase or sale of any commodity, investment or derivative. The information and opinions contained in the Report were considered by MFGCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to MFGCIPL by
third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst MFGCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, MFGCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or
completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and MFGCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Commodities and Derivatives markets may be
subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
To be removed from future MFGCIPL e-mail updates, including rate offers, simply reply to this e-mail and enter, "REMOVE FROM E-MAIL LIST" on the subject line. CUSTOMERS PLEASE NOTE: When unsubscribing, unless you
specifically request not to, you will CONTINUE to receive your statements electronically if you already do so.
MFGCIPL Disclaimer
This Document is for private circulation and for information purposes only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report.
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not
be realized. In no circumstances it be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the commodities mentioned in it. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide, including persons
involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities
and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The same
persons may have acted upon the information contained here. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which we believe are reliable. MF Global or any of
its group companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice
Caution: Risk of loss in trading in can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances.
MF Global Commodities India Pvt. Ltd., No.1, C-Block, Modern Centre, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai-400 011, India. Tel: 91 22 2300 2999