VISION 21
Energy Plant of the Future
EPGA Power Generation Conference Hershey, PA October 24-26, 2001
John Ruether National Energy Technology Laboratory
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Drivers Changing Power Industry
• Deregulation and electric utility restructuring
− Market-driven environment − Profitability and investment concerns − Aversion to risk • Low cost of natural gas − Gas technologies favored over alternatives − Most new capacity to be gas-fired turbines and combined cycles • Environment − Pressure to reduce emissions, especially NOx, fine particulate, mercury − Concern over global climate change (CO2 emissions)
Technology innovation is the best way to address the coming challenges to our electric power and fuel supply infrastructure.
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Vision 21 Is Crosscutting Program
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VISION 21 Technology Roadmap
Systems Analysis and Integration Supporting Technologies Enabling Technologies 1999 2015 Low-Cost Gas Separation/Purification High-Temperature Heat Exchange Fuel-Flexible Gasification High-Performance Combustion Fuel Cells Fuel-Flexible Turbines Synthesis Gas Conversion to Fuels & Chemicals Materials Environmental Control Technology Controls and Sensors Computational Modeling/Virtual Simulation
Enabling Technologies
Supporting Technologies
Systems Analysis/ Integration
Technical/Economic/Market Analyses Systems Engineering Industrial Ecology Dynamic Response/Control
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Vision 21 Program Objectives
Capital & Operating Costs/RAM • Vision 21 must be competitive with other energy systems with comparable environmental performance
• • • •
Emissions < 0.01 lb/106 Btu SO2 and NOx < 0.005 lb/106 Btu PM <1/2 organic compounds in Utility HAPS Report <1 lb/109 Btu Hg
Schedule of Benefits • Technology spinoffs by 2005 • Designs for modules by 2012 • Commercial plant designs by 2015
Efficiency • Electricity generation coal based 60% (HHV) gas based 75% (LHV) • Fuels only plants 75%
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VISION 21 Energy Plant
Coal
POWER
F u e l C e ll F l C ll H i g h E f f ic i e n c y T u r b in e H h E f f ic i e c y T u rb e
Other Fuels
FUELS
Hydrogen Separation
L iq u id s C o n v e r s io n L iq u s o n v e rs io n
Oxygen Membrane
Gasification
Gas Stream Cleanup
Process Heat/ Steam
CO2 Sequestration
Fuels/Chemicals
Electricity
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Modular Technology
Systems Integration
Modules Modules Modules
INPUT Fossil Fuels
• Coal • Gas • Oil
OUTPUT
Electricity Chemicals Transportation Fuels Syngas Hydrogen Steam
Combustion/ Gasification Modules
Gas Cleanup Modules
High-Temp. Heat Exch. Modules
Opportunity Feedstocks
• Biomass • Municipal Waste • Petcoke
Power
Gas Separation
Fuels/ Chemicals
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Stable Coal Prices Erratic, Rising Natural Gas Prices
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001
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Coal Technologies are Cost Competitive
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History and Projections of World Fuel Consumption
800 700 600
Quads
Quads
500 400 300 200 100 0
Traditional Biomass* Renewable (Hydro, Solar, Wind) Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Historical data from the World Energy Council and projections from EIA. *Traditional biomass is mainly wood, charcoal, dung, etc. used in developing countries.
2020
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300
CO2 (Vostok)
250 200
Temperature Change from Present (oC)
2 0 -2 -4 200 150 100 50 0
Source: “Historical CO2 Record From the Vostok Ice Core” J.M. Barnolo et al, August 1999 www.cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/vostok.icecore.co2
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∆Tatm (Vostok)
Time Before Present (kyr)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO2 Concentrations Beyond Range of Natural Occurrence 350
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
graphic from OST’s “State of Knowledge” by l.billanti
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World Energy Use Is Growing Dramatically
1,200
World Population World Energy Consumption Population of Developed Countries
Population (Billions)
10 8 6
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2100
4 2 0 1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
Population Projections: United Nations “Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision” Energy Projections: “Global Energy Perspectives” IIASA / WEC
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Energy Consumption (Qbtu / yr)
12
1,400
Scenarios to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
World Carbon Emissions (Gton)
20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990
IS92a 750 Ceiling 650 Ceiling 550 Ceiling 450 Ceiling 350 Ceiling
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 550 ppmv implies 60% reduction below 1990 emission rates
2040
2090
2140
2190
2240
2290
Year
Source: Wigley, T.M.L., Richels, R., and Edmonds, J.A. Nature 379, 240-243 (1996)
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CO2 Mitigation Options
Reduce Carbon Intensity Improve Efficiency Sequester Carbon Reduce Population Reduce GDP
Renewables
Demand Side
Capture & Storage
Nuclear
Supply Side
Enhance Natural Sinks
Fuel Switching
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Fossil Fuels Are the World’s Dominant Energy Source
World United States
97 QBtu/yr; 85% Fossil Energy
Coal Coal 25% 25% Nuclear 8% 4% Oil 38% 0.6% 3% Hydro Solar, Wind, Geo Biomass Oil 39% Gas 22%
380 QBtu/yr; 86% Fossil Energy
Coal Coal 22% 22%
Gas 24%
Nuclear 7% 7%
6%
0.9%
Word Data from EIA96. Does not include non-grid-connected biomass. U.S. Data from Table 2 of EIA REA 97 & AEO98 Table A2
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Percent Reduction in CO2 Emissions
(relative to 35% efficient plant)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Efficiency, %
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Technologies to Fill the Gap
25
Low Carbon Fuels Production, Capture, & Seq. BioEnergy Production Soil Sequestration Stationary Fossil Power Capture & Seq. End-Use Efficiency & Conservation Solar Nuclear
World Carbon Emissions (Gigatons)
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Year
Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Coal-Fired IGCC with Pre-combustion Capture of CO2
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Three Approaches to Power Generation from Coal with CO2 Capture
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Advanced Combined Cycle Generation Technologies with Carbon Capture Will Cost Less Than We Thought
Technology NGCC-H NGCC-H 90% capture IGCC-H IGCC-H 90% capture Thermal Efficiency, Carbon Emissions, Total Plant LCOE @ 80% cf, HHV, % kg CO2/kWh Cost, $/kWh Mills/kWh 53.6 43.3 0.338 0.04 496 943 30.7 48.8
43.1 37.0
0.718 0.073
1263 1642
45.1 56.4
Source: "Evaluation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants with CO2 Removal," EPRI, 2000. http://www.netl.doe.gov/product/power1/gasification/30_publications.htm
New Projects Contribute to Ultra-Clean Energy Plant
• Systems Integration • Gasification & Combustion
− National Fuel Cell Research Center • Computational Modeling & Virtual Simulation − Reaction Engineering International − Fluent, Inc. − Princeton University − CFD Research Corp. • High-Temperature Materials − Huntington Alloys
− Foster Wheeler − GE Energy and Environmental Research Corporation − Clean Energy Systems • Turbines & Fuel Cells − Fuel Cell Energy • Advanced Separation Technology − Siemens Westinghouse − Eltron Research − ITN Energy Systems
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VISION 21
http://www.netl.doe.gov
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