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VISION 21
Energy Plant of the Future
EPGA Power Generation
Conference
Hershey, PA
October 24-26, 2001
John Ruether
National Energy Technology Laboratory
Descriptor - include initials, /org#/date
Drivers Changing Power Industry
• Deregulation and electric utility restructuring
− Market-driven environment
− Profitability and investment concerns
− Aversion to risk
• Low cost of natural gas
− Gas technologies favored over alternatives
− Most new capacity to be gas-fired turbines and combined cycles
• Environment
− Pressure to reduce emissions, especially NOx, fine particulate,
mercury
− Concern over global climate change (CO2 emissions)
Technology innovation is the best way to address the coming
challenges to our electric power and fuel supply infrastructure.
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Vision 21 Is Crosscutting Program
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2K-1903
VISION 21 Technology Roadmap
Systems Analysis and Integration
Supporting Technologies
Enabling Technologies
1999 2015
Low-Cost Gas Separation/Purification
High-Temperature Heat Exchange
Fuel-Flexible Gasification
Enabling High-Performance Combustion
Technologies Fuel Cells
Fuel-Flexible Turbines
Synthesis Gas Conversion to Fuels & Chemicals
Materials
Supporting Environmental Control Technology
Technologies Controls and Sensors
Computational Modeling/Virtual Simulation
Systems Technical/Economic/Market Analyses
Analysis/ Systems Engineering
Integration Industrial Ecology
Dynamic Response/Control
Descriptor - include initials, /org#/date
Vision 21 Program Objectives
Emissions
Capital & Operating Costs/RAM
• < 0.01 lb/106 Btu SO2 and NOx
• Vision 21 must be
• < 0.005 lb/106 Btu PM
competitive with other energy
• <1/2 organic compounds in
systems with comparable Utility HAPS Report
environmental performance • <1 lb/109 Btu Hg
Schedule of Benefits Efficiency
• Technology spinoffs by 2005 • Electricity generation
• Designs for modules by 2012 coal based 60% (HHV)
• Commercial plant designs by gas based 75% (LHV)
2015 • Fuels only plants 75%
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VISION 21 Energy Plant
Coal
POWER
F u e l C e ll
F l C ll H h E f f ic i e c y T u rb e
H i g h E f f ic i e n c y T u r b in e
Other
Fuels
FUELS
o n v e rs io n
L iq u id s C o n v e r s io n
L iq u s
Hydrogen
Process
Separation Heat/
Gas
Oxygen Stream Steam
Membrane Cleanup
Gasification
CO2 Sequestration Electricity
Fuels/Chemicals
Descriptor - include initials, /org#/date
Modular Technology
Systems Integration
Modules
Modules
Modules
INPUT OUTPUT
Electricity
Fossil Fuels
• Coal
Combustion/ Gas High-Temp. Chemicals
• Gas
Gasification Cleanup Heat Exch.
• Oil
Modules Transportation
Modules
Modules
Fuels
Opportunity
Feedstocks Syngas
• Biomass
• Municipal Waste Hydrogen
• Petcoke Gas Fuels/
Power
Separation Chemicals Steam
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Stable Coal Prices
Erratic, Rising Natural Gas Prices
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001
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Coal Technologies are Cost Competitive
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History and Projections of World Fuel Consumption
800
Traditional Biomass*
700
Renewable (Hydro, Solar, Wind)
Nuclear
600
Natural Gas
Quads
500 Oil
Quads
Coal
400
300
200
100
0
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Historical data from the World Energy Council and projections from EIA. Descriptor - include initials, /org#/date
*Traditional biomass is mainly wood, charcoal, dung, etc. used in developing countries.
CO2 Concentrations Beyond Range of
Natural Occurrence 350
CO2 Concentration
(ppmv)
300
CO2 (Vostok)
250
Temperature Change
200
from Present (oC)
2
0 ∆Tatm (Vostok)
-2
-4
200 150 100 50 0
Time Before Present Source: “Historical CO2 Record From the Vostok Ice Core”
(kyr) J.M. Barnolo et al, August 1999
www.cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/vostok.icecore.co2
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
graphic from OST’s “State of Knowledge”
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by l.billanti
World Energy Use Is Growing Dramatically
12 1,400
Energy Consumption (Qbtu / yr)
10 1,200
Population (Billions)
1,000
8 World
Population 800
6
World Energy 600
4 Consumption
400
Population of
2 Developed Countries 200
0 0
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year Population Projections: United Nations “Long-Range World
Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision”
Energy Projections: “Global Energy Perspectives” IIASA / WEC
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World Carbon Emissions (Gton)
Scenarios to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
20
IS92a
750 Ceiling
650 Ceiling Stabilizing CO2
15 550 Ceiling
450 Ceiling concentrations
350 Ceiling
10 at 550 ppmv
implies 60%
5
reduction
0
below 1990
emission rates
-5
1990 2040 2090 2140 2190 2240 2290
Year
Source: Wigley, T.M.L., Richels, R., and
Edmonds, J.A. Nature 379, 240-243 (1996)
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CO2 Mitigation Options
Reduce Carbon Improve Sequester Reduce Reduce
Intensity Efficiency Carbon Population GDP
Renewables Demand Side Capture &
Storage
Nuclear Supply Side Enhance
Natural Sinks
Fuel
Switching
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Fossil Fuels Are the World’s Dominant
Energy Source
World
380 QBtu/yr; 86% Fossil Energy
United States
97 QBtu/yr; 85% Fossil Energy
Gas
Coal
Coal 22%
Gas 25%
25%
Coal 24%
Coal
22%
22% Nuclear 6%
Nuclear 8%
4% 7%
7%
Oil 0.6% Oil
38% 3% 39%
0.9%
Hydro
Solar, Wind, Geo
Biomass
Word Data from EIA96. Does not include non-grid-connected biomass.
U.S. Data from Table 2 of EIA REA 97 & AEO98 Table A2
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Percent Reduction in CO2 Emissions
(relative to 35% efficient plant)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Efficiency, %
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Technologies to Fill the Gap
25
Low Carbon Fuels Production, Capture, & Seq.
BioEnergy Production
Soil Sequestration
20
World Carbon Emissions
Stationary Fossil Power Capture & Seq.
End-Use Efficiency & Conservation
Solar
15
(Gigatons)
Nuclear
10
5
0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Coal-Fired IGCC with Pre-combustion
Capture of CO2
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Three Approaches to Power Generation from
Coal with CO2 Capture
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Advanced Combined Cycle Generation Technologies with
Carbon Capture Will Cost Less Than We Thought
Thermal Efficiency, Carbon Emissions, Total Plant LCOE @ 80% cf,
Technology HHV, % kg CO2/kWh Cost, $/kWh Mills/kWh
NGCC-H 53.6 0.338 496 30.7
NGCC-H 43.3 0.04 943 48.8
90% capture
IGCC-H 43.1 0.718 1263 45.1
IGCC-H 37.0 0.073 1642 56.4
90% capture
Source: "Evaluation of Fossil Fuel Power Plants with CO2 Removal," EPRI, 2000.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/product/power1/gasification/30_publications.htm
New Projects Contribute to
Ultra-Clean Energy Plant
• Systems Integration • Gasification & Combustion
− National Fuel Cell − Foster Wheeler
Research Center − GE Energy and
• Computational Modeling Environmental Research
& Virtual Simulation Corporation
− Reaction Engineering − Clean Energy Systems
International • Turbines & Fuel Cells
− Fluent, Inc. − Fuel Cell Energy
− Princeton University • Advanced Separation
− CFD Research Corp. Technology
• High-Temperature − Siemens Westinghouse
Materials − Eltron Research
− Huntington Alloys − ITN Energy Systems
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VISION 21
http://www.netl.doe.gov
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