If the Stock Market Crashes What Then

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If the Stock Market Crashes What Then Powered By Docstoc
					How many people are
   there to purchase
      homes? This
   spreadsheet is an
 analytical study that
  looks at the 'buyers
 pools' for housing. In
   the adjacent cells
you'll see the statistics
    included in this
workbook. You'll find
  the study in the tab
below titled, "Housing
 & Pop". The 'Charts'
 tab is a visual of the
        statistics.
Links to statistics within workbook.
Population (annual live births): 1933–2001
Population (decennial): 1790–2000
Immigration (decennial):1850–2000
Immigration (annual):1820–2001
Population (percentage distribution of the population in major age groups by country): 2000 and 2050
Buyers pools for starter homes  (1959–2027) and trade up homes (1977–2040) Graphs. Stats are to the left of
graph. No Immigration units): 1965–2002
Housing (total housing
Housing (total housing units as % to births): 1976–2002
Housing (estimates of total housing inventories): 1965–2002
Buyers pools for starter homes and more expensive homes w/immigration

This study was written in 2002. Actual statistics are through 2001. The study
was updated in 11/2005. However, none of the numbers were changed, only
text.
Disclaimer:
Data in this excel workbook has been collected from many different sources. However, most data
comes from government sites. I've made every attempt to make sure that I entered the data
correctly.
HS Dent's theories are owned by him. (www.hsdent.com. I encourage you to purchase his
products, they've helped me a great deal.)
HS Dent has nothing to do with this study. Therefore, he may not be held responsible for anything
in this workbook or the accuracy of my interpretation of the studies in this workbook.

Your only remedy for problems you may perceive with the data in this workbook is to simply not
use it. are dissatisfied with the data, email me for a complete refund. If you cut and paste the data
If you
into another workbook, then ask me for a refund, that is soooo not cool! I've put countless hours
into this study, therefore, you'd be cheating me and my family, and that's not acceptable. So, be
nice.
DO NOT use this study as a gage when to sell or buy a home. This is AN INFORMATIONAL
STUDY ONLY. Always consult a professional in the area you are attempting to analyze.


jimndi@ameritech.net

You may make changes to any cells within the work sheet. There are no password protections installed.
sheet as a template for your own studies. Simply save this worksheet with a different name and poof! You've
got another worksheet tocan change colors, fonts, stats, whatever, and you'll still have the original data.
work with. That way you
Understand that if you change the names of the worksheets, the embedded links, like those above in cells b-
1 through b-11 will not work.

Why not update the study?
In a study like this you need a benchmark; that benchmark is the year 2001. . Changing the study would, with
an updated study, wouldn't mean anything statistically.
That's because the stats are still the same. The statistics will not change because the statistics are taken from
birth statistics that have already happened.
The births are lagged forward in time to produce a "Home Buyer's Pool". It shows how many people there
are available to purchase homes.
The formula is simple and has nothing to do with updating any numbers.
Will I ever update the study? Yes. Perhaps to match up the projected stats with real statistical releases. But
that's a whole new study.
Conclusions
Source: IRS
Table 17.--Estate Tax Returns as a Percentage of Adult Deaths, Selected Years of Death, 1934-2002
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:SSZM288izloJ:ftp.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id%3D96442,00.html++%22size+of+Estate%22+site:.gov&hl=
What may be concluded from this study? [updated 11/2005]

People tend to purchase their 1st home at the age of 26 (start-up home). Then, at age 46, they
trade up to a bigger size home (trade-up home).
This study shows how many people there are to purchase homes at those specific ages and sorts
that data year- by-year from 1977-2043
The numbers clearly show that as the pool of buyers grow, so does the price of housing. We could
expect the flip side of that, as the number of people in the pool decreases.
The number of people in the trade-up home category peaked in 2002, came back-up a bit into
2004 and slowly declines into 2007. After that, there's a steep drop off.
I consider the trade-up home category to include more expensive homes, since a 46 year old can
afford a more expensive home.
The conclusion for the 46 year old age group is that the more expensive homes peaked in 2002-03
and began a slow decline in price that will not bottom-out until 2016. Furthermore it won't surpass
the 2002 peak in most of our lifetimes.
The other group of buyers, the start-up homes, faired better. It bottomed in 1999 and has begun a
slow climb all the way to 2016 where it peaks. That makes sense considering those people will
then be in their trade-up home phase. Therefore, the bottom of the trade up home phase should
coincide with the top of the start-up home phase.
The crash, people have been expecting hasn't manifested and this study shows why. There are too
many buyers. Add that to the 'easy money' since 9/11 and you get a rise in prices. The upper
bracket homes have peaked, but there are still plenty of buyers out there and they will bid on
those homes as they slowly come-off in price.
The start-up home category still has a ways to go. That's why we've seen such a clear rise in prices
at the lower end of the market.

So, what will cause the housing market to come down?
There's several factors, other than the 'buyers pools', that are driving the housing market and they
must be 1st, there's the inheritance factor. Meaning, the Silent Generation (b1925-1942) are the
discussed.
richest
generation in US history and they are passing money down to the Boomers and Xers. Furthermore,
they are doing so at lower tax rates, since the Bush administration passed the Estate-Tax laws in
2001. Estate-Tax rates are going lower and lower each year. Those lower tax rates are going to be
reset in 2011 to higher tax rates. This type of scenario, the lower tax rates, can be defined as 'easy
money'. Or, 'easy credit'. That will change and when it does, it'll squeeze the market. The target
year, therefore, is 2011. (See tables below, CRS-28 and the 'Maximum Tax-Free Amount'.)

2nd, the inheritance being handed down by the Silent generation is helping drive prices, as I've
written. This fact can be defined as 'easy money' also. However, in 2005, the Silent generation
began passing away at a faster rate. If we kook at this point, strictly from an economic view, that's
both good and bad. The good news is that the inheritance will come in large sums over the next 5
years, but the bad news is the resource (the Silent generation) is being depleted. As crass as it
sounds, it's the truth. Remember I'm strictly speaking in economic terms. Not sentimental.
There's one particular study, about inheritance being passed down, that attempts to show exactly
how much will be passed down, and when. The study was written by Paul Schervish and John
Havens at Boston College (BC) and can be viewed here:
http://www.bc.edu/research/swri/features/wealth/. (See 'Exhibit A' in this spreadsheet, below,
for a lower estimate the study.)
BC's snapshot from is that 41 trillion dollars will be handed down from 1999-2052. They base the
estimate on projecting the 1998 Estate-Tax filings, forward in time.

That's great, but, what if the stock market crashes, or the dollar is devalued? I'm predicting that
either scenario will take place after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hits 35,000. The 35k
figure will happen sometime 2009-2012, then, it will dive to 17k within 18-months of its peak.
Furthermore, it will trade under 10k, 5-years after the initial crash. That will be the bottom (2014-
2017). We won't see the DJIA above 35k in our lifetime. The initial crash should trigger a default in
the bond market, and the only solution will be to devalue or abandon the US Dollar.
When that occurs, all the wealth in the US will be cut by a substantial percentage. Researchers can
argue over the amount of money that's going to be handed down. Furthermore, they can argue
about the exact net worth of households. But, that's not the point. The point is that when we have an
economic crash, the size of inheritance and household net worth will be cut by a huge amount and
that fact changes all the numbers in any studies' projections.

The cause the Great Depression wasn't the stock market crash. That was a catalyst. The cause was
the inability of people to pay their mortgages and other debts. That's why the banks started failing
in December 1930. No one had the money to pay their debts. We were a debt society back then
and the article I wrote called
Readwe are again, today. 'Debt' by clicking here if you'd like to know more.

My conclusion is that the housing market prices follow the pool of buyers. However, if there is an
economic crash, then, everything changes. Since I'm predicting that crash, then, everything will
change.
Source: IRS
Table 17.--Estate Tax Returns as a Percentage of Adult Deaths, Selected Years of Death, 1934-2002
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:SSZM288izloJ:ftp.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id%3D96442,00.html++%22size+of+Estate%22+site:.gov&hl=en
   Click me for
 further reading
about the coming
      crash.
%22+site:.gov&hl=en
This sheet is based on HS Dent's theories (www.hsdent.com).
                                                                         By lagging the birth data by 25 year
                                                                         buying pool and by lagging the birt
I begin analysis of the housing data without adding immigration.         the trade-up home buying pool. To s
                                                                         to the right. Or click the 'Graphs' tab
Graphs and data that add immigration begin cell CG-5. World Population   themselves.
stats begin at cell EA-1

                                        Increase/
        Total Housing    Increase/                                                Total Housing
yyyy                                   Decrease YoY        yyyy            yyyy
            Units       Decrease YoY                                                  Units
                                        Difference

 1965    64,213,000                                        1965            1976     80,189,000
 1966    65,212,000       999,000                          1966            1977     81,645,000
 1967    66,014,000       802,000        (197,000)         1967            1978     83,496,000
 1968    67,171,000       1,157,000      355,000           1968            1979     85,735,000
 1969    68,479,000       1,308,000      151,000           1969            1980     87,739,000
 1970    69,778,000       1,299,000       (9,000)          1970            1981     90,862,000
 1971    71,320,000       1,542,000      243,000           1971            1982     91,876,000
 1972    73,313,000       1,993,000      451,000           1972            1983     93,044,000
 1973    75,407,000       2,094,000      101,000           1973            1984     95,256,000
 1974    77,462,000       2,055,000      (39,000)          1974            1985     97,333,000
 1975    78,821,000       1,359,000      (696,000)         1975            1986     99,318,000
 1976    80,189,000       1,368,000       9,000            1976            1987    101,811,000
 1977    81,645,000       1,456,000       88,000           1977            1988    103,653,000
 1978    83,496,000       1,851,000      395,000           1978            1989    105,729,000
 1979    85,735,000       2,239,000      388,000           1979            1990    106,283,000
 1980    87,739,000       2,004,000      (235,000)         1980            1991    107,276,000
 1981    90,862,000       3,123,000      1,119,000         1981            1992    108,316,000
 1982    91,876,000       1,014,000     (2,109,000)        1982            1993    109,611,000
 1983    93,044,000       1,168,000      154,000           1983            1994    110,952,000
 1984    95,256,000       2,212,000      1,044,000         1984            1995    112,655,000
 1985    97,333,000       2,077,000      (135,000)         1985            1996    114,139,000
 1986    99,318,000       1,985,000      (92,000)          1986            1997    115,621,000
 1987    101,811,000      2,493,000      508,000           1987            1998    117,282,000
 1988    103,653,000      1,842,000      (651,000)         1988            1999    119,044,000
 1989    105,729,000      2,076,000      234,000           1989            2000    119,628,000
 1990    106,283,000      554,000       (1,522,000)        1990            2001    121,480,000
 1991    107,276,000      993,000        439,000           1991            2002    123,318,000
 1992    108,316,000      1,040,000       47,000           1992
 1993    109,611,000      1,295,000      255,000           1993
 1994    110,952,000      1,341,000       46,000           1994
 1995    112,655,000      1,703,000      362,000           1995
 1996    114,139,000      1,484,000      (219,000)         1996
 1997    115,621,000      1,482,000       (2,000)          1997
 1998    117,282,000      1,661,000      179,000           1998
 1999    119,044,000      1,762,000      101,000           1999
 2000    119,628,000      584,000       (1,178,000)        2000
 2001    121,480,000      1,852,000      1,268,000         2001
 2002    123,318,000      1,838,000      (14,000)          2002
                                                                                   Increase YoY
                              Increase YoY
yyyy   Price   Increase YoY                      yyyy                   CPI        as a % adj for
                                 as a %
                                                                                     Inflation

1975   62.9                                      1975                  9.20%
1976   66.8         3.9          6.20%           1976                  5.75%          0.45%
1977    74          7.2          10.78%          1977                  6.50%          4.28%
1978   83.8         9.8          13.24%          1978                  7.62%          5.62%
1979   94.9        11.1          13.25%          1979                  11.22%         2.03%
1980   102.4        7.5          7.90%           1980                  13.58%         5.68%
1981   108          5.6          5.47%           1981                  10.35%         4.88%
1982   111.2        3.2          2.96%           1982                  6.16%          3.20%
1983   115.3        4.1          3.69%           1983                  3.22%          0.47%
1984   120.7        5.4          4.68%           1984                  4.30%          0.38%
1985   127.9        7.2          5.97%           1985                  3.55%          2.42%
1986   137.8        9.9          7.74%           1986                  1.91%          5.83%
1987   148.6       10.8          7.84%           1987                  3.66%          4.18%
1988   158.1        9.5          6.39%           1988                  4.08%          2.31%
1989   167.1        9            5.69%           1989                  4.83%          0.86%
1990   171.4        4.3          2.57%           1990                  5.39%          2.82%
1991   173.5        2.1          1.23%           1991                  4.25%          3.02%
1992   177.3        3.8          2.19%           1992                  3.03%          0.84%
1993   180.3        3            1.69%           1993                  2.96%          1.27%
1994   183.7        3.4          1.89%           1994                  2.61%          0.72%
1995   188.6        4.9          2.67%           1995                  2.81%          0.14%
1996   195.3        6.7          3.55%           1996                  2.93%          0.62%
1997   202.1        6.8          3.48%           1997                  2.34%          1.14%
1998   212.5       10.4          5.15%           1998                  1.55%          3.60%
1999   224.1       11.6          5.46%           1999                  2.19%          3.27%
2000   241.3       17.2          7.68%           2000                  3.38%          4.30%
2001   261.9       20.6          8.54%           2001                  2.83%          5.71%
                                                 2002                  1.59%
                                                 2003




                                                 Native population


       yyyy    Total US Pop                                                        Total Foreign-
                                  Total      Born in the US          Born abroad
                                                                                     born Pop


       1990     248,709,873    228,942,557   225,695,826              3,246,731     19,767,316
       1980     226,545,805    212,465,899   210,322,697              2,143,202     14,079,906
       1970     203,210,158    193,590,856   191,329,489              2,261,367      9,619,302
       1960     179,325,671    169,587,580   168,525,645              1,061,935      9,738,091
       1950     150,216,110    139,868,715   139,442,390               426,325      10,347,395
       1940     131,669,275    120,074,379   119,795,254               279,125      11,594,896
       1930     122,775,046    108,570,897   108,304,188               266,709      14,204,149
       1920     105,710,620    91,789,928     91,659,045               130,883      13,920,692
1910    91,972,266    78,456,380           78,381,104             75,276     13,515,886
1900    75,994,575    65,653,299           65,583,225             70,074     10,341,276
1890    62,622,250    53,372,703           53,362,371             10,332     9,249,547
1880    50,155,783    43,475,840           43,475,498              342       6,679,943
1870    38,558,371    32,991,142           32,990,922              220       5,567,229
1860    31,443,321    27,304,624           27,304,624               -        4,138,697
1850    23,191,876    20,947,274           20,947,274               -        2,244,602




                         YoY                                       YoY
                                   YoY % Increase (Decrease if              YoY Increase
yyyy   Total US Pop   Population                                 Decrease
                                           < prior yr)                         as a %
                       Increase                                   as a %


1790    3,929,214
1800    5,308,483      1,379,269             25.98%
1810    7,239,881      1,931,398             26.68%                            0.69%
1820    9,638,453      2,398,572             24.89%               1.79%
1830    12,860,702     3,222,249             25.06%                            0.17%
1840    17,063,353     4,202,651             24.63%               0.43%
1850    23,191,786     6,128,433             26.43%                            1.80%
1860    31,443,321     8,251,535             26.24%               0.18%
1870    38,558,371     7,115,050             18.45%               7.79%
1880    50,189,209    11,630,838             23.17%                            4.72%
1890    62,979,766    12,790,557             20.31%               2.86%


1900    76,212,168    13,232,402             17.36%               2.95%


1910    92,228,496    16,016,328             17.37%                            0.00%
1920   106,021,537    13,793,041             13.01%               4.36%
1930   123,202,624    17,181,087             13.95%                            0.94%
1940   132,164,569     8,961,945             6.78%                7.16%
1950   151,325,798    19,161,229             12.66%                            5.88%
1960   179,323,175    27,997,377             15.61%                            2.95%
1970   203,302,031    23,978,856             11.79%               3.82%
1980   226,542,199    23,240,168             10.26%               1.54%
1990   248,709,873    22,167,674             8.91%                1.35%
2000   281,421,906    32,712,033             11.62%                            2.71%
 g the birth data by 25 years you can forecast the starter home
ool and by lagging the birth data by 43 years you can forecast
-up home buying pool. To see the graphs, navigate to cell CG-5,
ht. Or click the 'Graphs' tab below to see the graphs by
es.

            Increase/    Increase/
                                                           43 year Lag   43 year Lag
            Decrease    Decrease YoY   yyyy    Births                                     yyyy
                                                          (YR) (E4+43) (births) (F4+43)
               YoY       Difference

                                       1933   2,081,232      1976          2,081,232      1976
            1,456,000     1,456,000    1934   2,167,636      1977          2,167,636      1977
            1,851,000     395,000      1935   2,155,105      1978          2,155,105      1978
            2,239,000     388,000      1936   2,144,790      1979          2,144,790      1979
            2,004,000     (235,000)    1937   2,203,337      1980          2,203,337      1980
            3,123,000     1,119,000    1938   2,286,962      1981          2,286,962      1981
            1,014,000    (2,109,000)   1939   2,265,588      1982          2,265,588      1982
            1,168,000     154,000      1940   2,360,399      1983          2,360,399      1983
            2,212,000     1,044,000    1941   2,513,427      1984          2,513,427      1984
            2,077,000     (135,000)    1942   2,808,996      1985          2,808,996      1985
            1,985,000     (92,000)     1943   2,934,000      1986          2,934,000      1986
            2,493,000     508,000      1944   2,794,000      1987          2,794,000      1987
            1,842,000     (651,000)    1945   2,735,000      1988          2,735,000      1988
            2,076,000     234,000      1946   3,289,000      1989          3,289,000      1989
             554,000     (1,522,000)   1947   3,699,000      1990          3,699,000      1990
             993,000      439,000      1948   3,535,000      1991          3,535,000      1991
            1,040,000      47,000      1949   3,559,000      1992          3,559,000      1992
            1,295,000     255,000      1950   3,554,000      1993          3,554,000      1993
            1,341,000      46,000      1951   3,751,000      1994          3,751,000      1994
            1,703,000     362,000      1952   3,847,000      1995          3,847,000      1995
            1,484,000     (219,000)    1953   4,017,000      1996          4,017,000      1996
            1,482,000      (2,000)     1954   4,017,000      1997          4,017,000      1997
            1,661,000     179,000      1955   4,047,000      1998          4,047,000      1998
            1,762,000     101,000      1956   4,163,000      1999          4,163,000      1999
             584,000     (1,178,000)   1957   4,255,000      2000          4,255,000      2000
            1,852,000     1,268,000    1958   4,204,000      2001          4,204,000      2001
            1,838,000     (14,000)     1959   4,245,000      2002          4,482,195      2002
                                       1960   4,258,000      2003          4,258,000
                                       1961   4,268,000      2004          4,268,000
                                       1962   4,167,000      2005          4,167,000
                                       1963   4,081,000      2006          4,081,000
                                       1964   4,027,000      2007          4,027,000
                                       1965   3,760,000      2008          3,760,000
                                       1966   3,606,000      2009          3,606,000
                                       1967   3,520,000      2010          3,520,000
                                       1968   3,501,000      2011          3,501,000
                                       1969   3,600,000      2012          3,600,000
                                       1970   3,731,000      2013          3,731,000
                                       1971   3,555,000      2014          3,555,000
              Final Price
   B*G          (Adj for       1972          3,258,000       2015              3,258,000
               Inflation)

                               1973          3,136,000       2016              3,136,000
   0.28          63.18         1974          3,159,000       2017              3,159,000
   2.86          69.66         1975          3,144,000       2018              3,144,000
   4.16          78.16         1976          3,167,000       2019              3,167,000
   1.70          85.50         1977          3,326,000       2020              3,326,000
   5.39         100.29         1978          3,333,000       2021              3,333,000
   5.00         107.40         1979          3,494,000       2022              3,494,000
   3.45         111.45         1980          3,612,000       2023              3,612,000
   0.52         111.72         1981          3,629,000       2024              3,629,000
   0.44         115.74         1982          3,680,537       2025              3,680,537
   2.92         123.62         1983          3,638,933       2026              3,638,933
   7.46         135.36         1984          3,669,141       2027              3,669,141
   5.76         143.56         1985          3,760,561       2028              3,760,561
   3.44         152.04         1986          3,756,547       2029              3,756,547
   1.36         159.46         1987          3,809,394       2030              3,809,394
   4.71         171.81         1988          3,909,510       2031              3,909,510
   5.18         176.58         1989          4,040,957       2032              4,040,957
   1.46         174.96         1990          4,158,212       2033              4,158,212
   2.25         179.55         1991          4,110,907       2034              4,110,907
   1.31         181.61         1992          4,065,014       2035              4,065,014
   0.26         183.96         1993          4,000,240       2036              4,000,240
   1.17         189.77         1994          3,852,767       2037              3,852,767
   2.23         197.53         1995          3,899,589       2038              3,899,589
   7.27         209.37         1996          3,891,494       2039              3,891,494
   6.95         219.45         1997          3,880,894       2040              3,880,894
   9.63         233.73         1998          3,943,553       2041              3,943,553
   13.77        255.07         1999          3,959,417       2042              3,959,417
                               2000          4,064,948       2043              4,064,948
                               2001          4,025,933       2044              4,025,933
                               2002                          2045
                               2003                          2046




                                                           Average         Immigration
   Net                         Net
                 yyyy                           YR       Yearly Total -   Rates (Per 1000           YR
Immigration                 Immigration
                                                         All Countries      Population)

 5,687,410       1990        5,687,410    1630-1700               2,200 ----                     1900-1910
 4,460,604       1980        4,460,604    1700-1780               4,325 ----                     1910-1920
 -118,789        1970        -118,789     1780-1819               9,900 ----                     1920-1930
 -609,304        1960        -609,304     1820-1831              14,538                    1.3   1930-1940
-1,247,501       1950       -1,247,501    1832-1846              71,916                    4.3   1940-1950
-2,609,253       1940       -2,609,253    1847-1854            334,506                     14    1950-1960
  283,457        1930         283,457     1855-1864            160,427                     5.2   1960-1970
  404,806        1920         404,806     1865-1873            327,464                     8.4   1970-1980
 3,174,610      1910      3,174,610   1874-1880   260,754    5.6   1980-1990
 1,091,729      1900      1,091,729   1881-1893   525,102    8.9   1990-2000
 2,569,604      1890      2,569,604   1894-1899   276,547    3.9
 1,112,714      1880      1,112,714   1900-1914   891,806   10.2
 1,428,532      1870      1,428,532   1915-1919   234,536    2.3
 1,894,095      1860      1,894,095   1920-1930   412,474    3.6
 2,244,602      1850      2,244,602   1931-1946    50,507    0.4
                                      1947-1960   252,210    1.5
                                      1961-1970   332,168    1.7
                                      1971-1980   449,331    2.1
                                      1981-1990   733,806    3.1
                                      1991-1998   950,634    3.6




              Legal
  yyyy
             Number
1820-2001    67,153,749
  1820          8,385
  1821          9,127
  1822          6,911
  1823          6,354
  1824          7,912
  1825         10,199
  1826         10,837
  1827         18,875
  1828         27,382
  1829         22,520
  1830         23,322
  1831         22,633
  1832         60,482
  1833         58,640
  1834         65,365
  1835         45,374
  1836         76,242
1837   79,340
1838   38,914
1839   68,069
1840   84,066
1841   80,289
1842   104,565
1843   52,496
1844   78,615
1845   114,371
1846   154,416
1847   234,968
1848   226,527
1849   297,024
1850   369,980
1851   379,466
1852   371,603
1853   368,645
1854   427,833
1855   200,877
1856   200,436
1857   251,306
1858   123,126
1859   121,282
1860   153,640
1861   91,918
1862   91,985
1863   176,252
1864   193,418
1865   248,120
1866   318,568
1867   315,722
1868   138,840
1869   352,769
1870   387,203
1871   321,350
1872   404,806
1873   459,803
1874   313,339
1875   227,498
1876   169,986
1877   141,857
1878   138,469
1879   177,826
1880   457,257
1881   669,431
1882   788,992
1883   603,322
1884   518,592
1885   395,346
1886   334,203
1887   490,109
1888   546,889
1889    444,427
1890    455,302
1891    560,319
1892    579,663
1893    439,730
1894    285,631
1895    258,536
1896    343,267
1897    230,832
1898    229,299
1899    311,715
1900    448,572
1901    487,918
1902    648,743
1903    857,046
1904    812,870
1905   1,026,499
1906    110,735
1907   1,285,349
1908    782,870
1909    751,786
1910   1,041,570
1911    878,587
1912    838,182
1913   1,197,892
1914   1,218,480
1915    326,700
1916    298,826
1917    295,403
1918    110,618
1919    141,132
1920    430,001
1921    805,228
1922    309,556
1923    522,919
1924    706,896
1925    294,314
1926    304,488
1927    335,175
1928    307,255
1929    279,678
1930    241,700
1931    97,139
1932    35,476
1933    23,068
1934    29,470
1935    34,956
1936    36,329
1937    50,244
1938    67,895
1939    82,998
1940    70,756
1941    51,776
1942    28,781
1943    23,725
1944    28,551
1945    38,119
1946    108,721
1947    147,292
1948    170,570
1949    188,317
1950    249,187
1951    205,717
1952    265,520
1953    170,434
1954    208,177
1955    237,790
1956    321,625
1957    326,867
1958    253,265
1959    260,686
1960    265,398
1961    271,344
1962    283,763
1963    306,260
1964    292,248
1965    296,697
1966    323,040
1967    361,972
1968    454,448
1969    358,849
1970    373,326
1971    370,478
1972    384,685
1973    400,063
1974    394,861
1975    386,194
1976    398,613
1977    462,315
1978    601,442
1979    460,348
1980    530,639
1981    596,000
1982    594,131
1983    559,763
1984    543,903
1985    570,009
1986    601,708
1987    601,516
1988    643,025
1989   1,090,924
1990   1,536,483
1991   1,827,167
1992    973,977
1993    904,292
1994    804,416
1995    720,461
1996    915,900
1997    798,378
1998    654,451
1999    646,568
2000    849,807
2001   1,064,318
                     Total                       26 year Lag                This chart represents when the average
Housing Units as                                              26 year Lag
  % to Births
                   Housing    yyyy    Births         (YR)
                                                             (YR) (R4+26)
                                                                             own during their life time. You could e
                   Occupied                        (Q4+26)
                                                                                        up then the home prices mu
     2.60%          73,415    1933   2,081,232      1959      2,081,232
     2.65%          74,784    1934   2,167,636      1960      2,167,636
     2.58%          76,548    1935   2,155,105      1961      2,155,105
                                                                                                          Buyers Po
     2.50%          78,146    1936   2,144,790      1962      2,144,790
     2.51%          79,368    1937   2,203,337      1963      2,203,337
                                                                                           5.0
     2.52%          81,020    1938   2,286,962      1964      2,286,962




                                                                              (Millions)
     2.47%          82,793    1939   2,265,588      1965      2,265,588
     2.54%          83,731    1940   2,360,399      1966      2,360,399                    4.5
     2.64%          84,565    1941   2,513,427      1967      2,513,427
     2.89%          86,346    1942   2,808,996      1968      2,808,996                    4.0
     2.95%          87,889    1943   2,934,000      1969      2,934,000
     2.74%          89,145    1944   2,794,000      1970      2,794,000
     2.64%          90,517    1945   2,735,000      1971      2,735,000                    3.5
     3.11%          92,020    1946   3,289,000      1972      3,289,000
     3.48%          93,489    1947   3,699,000      1973      3,699,000                    3.0
     3.30%          95,253    1948   3,535,000      1974      3,535,000
     3.29%          96,391    1949   3,559,000      1975      3,559,000
     3.24%          97,717    1950   3,554,000      1976      3,554,000                    2.5
     3.38%          98,695    1951   3,751,000      1977      3,751,000
     3.41%          99,985    1952   3,847,000      1978      3,847,000                    2.0
     3.52%          100,984   1953   4,017,000      1979      4,017,000
     3.47%          102,202   1954   4,017,000      1980      4,017,000
     3.45%          103,534   1955   4,047,000      1981      4,047,000
                                                                                           1.5
     3.50%          104,928   1956   4,163,000      1982      4,163,000
     3.56%          105,720   1957   4,255,000      1983      4,255,000
     3.46%          107,010   1958   4,204,000      1984      4,204,000
     3.63%          108,539   1959   4,245,000      1985      4,245,000
                              1960   4,258,000      1986      4,258,000
                              1961   4,268,000      1987      4,268,000
                              1962   4,167,000      1988      4,167,000
                                                                            This chart represents when the average
                              1963   4,081,000      1989      4,081,000
                              1964   4,027,000      1990      4,027,000
                                                                                     this sector to follow the same
                              1965   3,760,000      1991      3,760,000
                              1966   3,606,000      1992      3,606,000
                              1967   3,520,000      1993      3,520,000
                              1968   3,501,000      1994      3,501,000
                                                                                                  Potential Buyers
                              1969   3,600,000      1995      3,600,000
                              1970   3,731,000      1996      3,731,000
                              1971   3,555,000      1997      3,555,000                     4.5
                                                                              (Millions)
                                                                                   4.5




                                                                      (Millions)
                                1972   3,258,000   1998   3,258,000
                                                                                   4.0
                                1973   3,136,000   1999   3,136,000
                                1974   3,159,000   2000   3,159,000                3.5
                                1975   3,144,000   2001   3,144,000
                                1976   3,167,000   2002   3,167,000                3.0
                                1977   3,326,000   2003   3,326,000
                                1978   3,333,000   2004   3,333,000
                                1979   3,494,000   2005   3,494,000                2.5
                                1980   3,612,000   2006   3,612,000
                                1981
                                1982
                                       3,629,000
                                       3,680,537
                                                   2007
                                                   2008
                                                          3,629,000
                                                          3,680,537
                                                                                   2.0
                                1983   3,638,933   2009   3,638,933
                                1984   3,669,141   2010   3,669,141                1.5
                                1985   3,760,561   2011   3,760,561




                                                                                          1959
                                                                                                 1963
                                                                                                          1967
                                1986   3,756,547   2012   3,756,547
                                1987   3,809,394   2013   3,809,394
                                1988   3,909,510   2014   3,909,510
                                1989   4,040,957   2015   4,040,957
                                1990   4,158,212   2016   4,158,212
                                1991   4,110,907   2017   4,110,907
                                1992   4,065,014   2018   4,065,014
                                1993   4,000,240   2019   4,000,240
                                1994   3,852,767   2020   3,852,767
                                1995   3,899,589   2021   3,899,589
                                                                                                         This chart takes
                                1996   3,891,494   2022   3,891,494
                                1997   3,880,894   2023   3,880,894
                                1998   3,943,553   2024   3,943,553
                                1999   3,959,417   2025   3,959,417
                                                                                                           Pool of Buy
                                2000   4,064,948   2026   4,064,948
                                2001   4,025,933   2027   4,025,933
                                2002               2028
                                2003               2029
                                                                      Millions




                                                                                   4.00
                                                                                   3.50
                                                                                   3.00
                     Yearly
(All) Immigration
                    average
                                                                                   2.50
   16,300,000       1,630,000
   14,100,000       1,410,000
                                                                                   2.00
                                                                                          1976

                                                                                                  1978




   16,600,000       1,660,000
   9,000,000        900,000
   20,100,000       2,010,000
   28,000,000       2,800,000
   24,200,000       2,420,000
   22,200,000       2,220,000
22,200,000   2,220,000
32,700,000   3,270,000
                                                                   This chart i


                                                                 Pool of hom

                         4,500,000

                         4,000,000

                         3,500,000

                         3,000,000

                         2,500,000

                         2,000,000

                         1,500,000




                                     1976

                                            1977

                                                   1978

                                                          1979
sents when the average person buys their trade-up home at 43 years of age. This will be the largest home they
r life time. You could expect home prices of this sector to follow the same path as the graph. When buyers dry
 en the home prices must come down. There's usually a lag with the prices though. Perhaps 2 years.

          Buyers Pool for Trade-up homes (no immigration data)




                                        Potential Buyers Pool
                                         (43-year birth lag)




                                                Year



sents when the average person buys their starter home at 25-27 years of age. You could expect home prices of
ctor to follow the same path as the graph. When buyers dry up then the home prices must come down.



otential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes (no immigration data)
                                               Potential Buyers Pool for Starter
                                                  Homes (26-year birth lag)




                                                                                                          2011
                                              1987
 1967
            1971
                     1975
                             1979
                                    1983


                                                            1991
                                                                     1995
                                                                            1999
                                                                                   2003
                                                                                            2007


                                                                                                                  2015
                                                                                                                         2019
                            Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes


This chart takes the pool of buyers and plots it against the Housing index yearly % increase.


  Pool of Buyers vs. Housing Price Index YoY % Increase adj. for inflation
                           (no immigration data)
                                      1986
     1980

                   1982

                             1984




                                                     1988

                                                                   1990

                                                                            1992

                                                                                     1994

                                                                                                   1996

                                                                                                                 1998

                                                                                                                         2000




        Pool of buyers                       Housing Price Index (% increase prices)
         This chart is telling. As the pool of buyers increases, so does the price of housing.


       Pool of home buyers vs. Housing Price index (no immigration data)




                                                                         1989
1979

         1980

                1981

                       1982

                              1983

                                      1984

                                             1985

                                                    1986

                                                           1987

                                                                  1988



                                                                                1990

                                                                                       1991

                                                                                              1992

                                                                                                     1993

                                                                                                            1994

                                                                                                                   1995

                                                                                                                          1996

                                                                                                                                 1997

                                                                                                                                        1998
                                     Pool of Buyers               Housing Price Index (Adj. for Inflation)
will be the largest home they
                                Table 7. Estimates of total housing
he graph. When buyers dry             inventories 1965-2002
                                                                      1965     1966     1967
 Perhaps 2 years.
                                         All housing units            64,213   65,212   66,014
                                              Vacant                  6,712    6,726    6,538
                                         Year-round vacant            4,853    4,909    4,762
                                              For rent                1,884    1,778    1,566
                                           For sale only               548      522      499
                                          Rented or sold               330      349      348
                                          Held off market             2,092    2,261    2,349
                                            Occ'l use                  504      546      571
                                               URE                     379      434      460
                                               Other                  1,209    1,280    1,318
                                             Seasonal                 1,860    1,817    1,776
                                          Total occupied              57,501   58,486   59,476
                                              Owner                   36,230   37,109   37,842
                                              Renter                  21,271   21,377   21,634




could expect home prices of
s must come down.
      2019
             2023
                    2027




se.




               7.10%
               6.10%
               5.10%
               4.10%
               3.10%
               2.10%
               1.10%
               0.10%
      2000
                     275
                     250
                     225
                     200
                     175
                     150
                     125
                     100
                     75
                     50
1999

       2000

              2001
1968     1969     1970     1971     1972     1973     1974     1975     1976

67,171   68,479   69,778   71,320   73,313   75,407   77,462   78,821   80,189
6,218    6,218    6,137    6,238    6,368    6,558    6,904    6,896    6,774
4,446    4,437    4,391    4,559    4,665    4,851    5,155    5,202    5,190
1,392    1,296    1,299    1,353    1,421    1,521    1,661    1,647    1,546
 439      408      427      422      432      467      557      591      598
 389      402      427      478      516      524      543      536      564
2,227    2,332    2,238    2,307    2,297    2,340    2,393    2,429    2,482
 551      619      615      652      642      588      617      649      705
 438      454      429      416      419      433      452      470      467
1,238    1,258    1,195    1,239    1,237    1,320    1,325    1,309    1,310
1,772    1,782    1,746    1,680    1,703    1,706    1,750    1,694    1,584
60,952   62,261   63,640   65,081   66,945   68,849   70,558   71,925   73,415
38,918   40,049   40,834   41,816   43,096   44,424   45,615   46,463   47,518
22,034   22,211   22,806   23,266   23,849   24,425   24,943   25,462   25,897
1977     1978     1979     1980     1981     1981     1982     1983     1984

81,645   83,496   85,735   87,739   88,988   90,862   91,876   93,044   95,256
6,861    6,948    7,589    8,101    7,967    8,070    8,145    8,479    8,910
5,224    5,260    5,893    5,996    6,034    6,136    6,369    6,693    7,080
1,472    1,433    1,579    1,575    1,500    1,524    1,670    1,810    1,934
 574      524      607      734      746      759      843      862      947
 651      650      705      623      585      595      554      633      664
2,528    2,653    3,003    3,064    3,203    3,259    3,302    3,389    3,535
 707      689      794      814      884      909      959      926      992
 438      467      591      568      605      615      588      642      622
1,383    1,498    1,618    1,683    1,715    1,735    1,754    1,821    1,921
1,637    1,688    1,696    2,106    1,934    1,934    1,776    1,787    1,830
74,784   76,548   78,146   79,638   81,020   82,793   83,731   84,565   86,346
48,461   49,739   50,972   52,223   53,007   54,084   54,237   54,671   55,671
26,324   26,810   27,174   27,415   28,013   28,709   29,495   29,894   30,675
1985     1986      1987      1988      1989      1990      1991      1992      1993

97,333   99,318   101,811   103,653   105,729   106,283   107,276   108,316   109,611
9,446    10,173    11,294    11,633    12,240    12,059    12,023    11,926    11,894
7,400    7,821     8,265     8,533     9,349     9,128     9,137     8,932     8,937
2,221    2,588     2,752     2,802     2,732     2,662     2,780     2,769     2,809
1,006     937       978       968      1,082     1,064     1,070      970       894
 664      683       688       678       705       660       602       628       625
3,510    3,614     3,848     4,085     4,830     4,742     4,686     4,564     4,609
 977      991      1,066     1,213     1,565     1,485     1,494     1,443     1,508
 659      741       787       887      1,014     1,068     1,084     1,011      994
1,875    1,883     1,996     1,985     2,251     2,189     2,107     2,111     2,108
2,046    2,352     3,029     3,100     2,891     2,931     2,886     2,994     2,957
87,887   89,145    90,517    92,020    93,489    94,224    95,253    96,391    97,717
56,152   56,844    57,915    58,700    59,755    60,248    61,010    61,823    62,533
31,736   32,302    32,602    33,320    33,734    33,976    34,242    34,568    35,184
 1994      1995      1996      1997      1998      1999      2000      2001      2002

110,952   112,655   114,139   115,621   117,282   119,044   119,628   121,480   123,318
 12,257    12,669    13,155    10,114    10,516    10,848    10,439    10,916    11,272
 9,229     9,570     9,945
 2,858     2,946     3,008     2,978     3,046     3,119     3,024     3,203     3,497
  953      1,022     1,082     1,133     1,205     1,184     1,148     1,301     1,277
  772       810       834       867       927       956       856       882       877
 4,646     4,793     5,022     5,136     5,338     5,589     5,411     5,530     5,621
 1,612     1,667     1,709     1,818     1,792     1,948     1,892     1,887     1,902
  815       801       852       885       910       965      1,037     1,064     1,035
 2,219     2,325     2,461     2,433     2,636     2,676     2,482     2,579     2,684
 3,028     3,099     3,209     3,305     3,232     3,268     3,469     3,554     3,507
 98,695    99,985   100,984   102,202   103,534   104,928   105,720   107,010   108,539
 63,136    64,739    66,041    67,143    68,638    70,097    71,250    72,593    73,713
 35,558    35,246    34,943    35,059    34,896    34,831    34,470    34,417    34.826
YR


1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
                                      Increase/                                    Increase/
                       Increase/                                   Total Housing
yyyy   Total Units                  Decrease Yr/Yr   yyyy   yyyy                   Decrease
                     Decrease Yr/Yr                                    Units
                                      Difference                                      YoY

1965   64,213,000                                    1965   1976    80,189,000
1966   65,212,000       999,000                      1966   1977    81,645,000     1,456,000
1967   66,014,000       802,000        (197,000)     1967   1978    83,496,000     1,851,000
1968   67,171,000      1,157,000       355,000       1968   1979    85,735,000     2,239,000
1969   68,479,000      1,308,000       151,000       1969   1980    87,739,000     2,004,000
1970   69,778,000      1,299,000        (9,000)      1970   1981    90,862,000     3,123,000
1971   71,320,000      1,542,000       243,000       1971   1982    91,876,000     1,014,000
1972   73,313,000      1,993,000       451,000       1972   1983    93,044,000     1,168,000
1973   75,407,000      2,094,000       101,000       1973   1984    95,256,000     2,212,000
1974   77,462,000      2,055,000       (39,000)      1974   1985    97,333,000     2,077,000
1975   78,821,000      1,359,000       (696,000)     1975   1986    99,318,000     1,985,000
1976   80,189,000      1,368,000        9,000        1976   1987    101,811,000    2,493,000
1977   81,645,000      1,456,000        88,000       1977   1988    103,653,000    1,842,000
1978   83,496,000      1,851,000       395,000       1978   1989    105,729,000    2,076,000
1979   85,735,000      2,239,000       388,000       1979   1990    106,283,000     554,000
1980   87,739,000      2,004,000       (235,000)     1980   1991    107,276,000     993,000
1981   90,862,000      3,123,000       1,119,000     1981   1992    108,316,000    1,040,000
1982   91,876,000      1,014,000      (2,109,000)    1982   1993    109,611,000    1,295,000
1983   93,044,000      1,168,000       154,000       1983   1994    110,952,000    1,341,000
1984   95,256,000      2,212,000       1,044,000     1984   1995    112,655,000    1,703,000
1985   97,333,000      2,077,000       (135,000)     1985   1996    114,139,000    1,484,000
1986   99,318,000      1,985,000       (92,000)      1986   1997    115,621,000    1,482,000
1987   101,811,000     2,493,000       508,000       1987   1998    117,282,000    1,661,000
1988   103,653,000     1,842,000       (651,000)     1988   1999    119,044,000    1,762,000
1989   105,729,000     2,076,000       234,000       1989   2000    119,628,000     584,000
1990   106,283,000      554,000       (1,522,000)    1990   2001    121,480,000    1,852,000
1991   107,276,000      993,000        439,000       1991   2002    123,318,000    1,838,000
1992   108,316,000     1,040,000        47,000       1992
1993   109,611,000     1,295,000       255,000       1993
1994   110,952,000     1,341,000        46,000       1994
1995   112,655,000     1,703,000       362,000       1995
1996   114,139,000     1,484,000       (219,000)     1996
1997   115,621,000     1,482,000        (2,000)      1997
1998   117,282,000     1,661,000       179,000       1998
1999   119,044,000     1,762,000       101,000       1999
2000   119,628,000      584,000       (1,178,000)    2000
2001   121,480,000     1,852,000       1,268,000     2001
2002   123,318,000     1,838,000       (14,000)      2002
                                                                         Increase
                                                                                                        Final Price
                         Increase yr/yr                                  yr/yr as a
Price   Increase yr/yr                       Year           CPI                            B*G            (Adj for
                             as a %                                      % adj for
                                                                                                         Inflation)
                                                                         Inflation
62.9                                         1975          9.20%
66.8         3.9             6.20%           1976          5.75%           0.45%           0.28            63.18
 74          7.2            10.78%           1977          6.50%           4.28%           2.86            69.66
83.8         9.8            13.24%           1978          7.62%           5.62%           4.16            78.16
94.9         11.1           13.25%           1979          11.22%          2.03%           1.70            85.50
102.4        7.5             7.90%           1980          13.58%          5.68%           5.39           100.29
108          5.6             5.47%           1981          10.35%          4.88%           5.00           107.40
111.2        3.2             2.96%           1982          6.16%           3.20%           3.45           111.45
115.3        4.1             3.69%           1983          3.22%           0.47%           0.52           111.72
120.7        5.4             4.68%           1984          4.30%           0.38%           0.44           115.74
127.9        7.2             5.97%           1985          3.55%           2.42%           2.92           123.62
137.8        9.9             7.74%           1986          1.91%           5.83%           7.46           135.36
148.6        10.8            7.84%           1987          3.66%           4.18%           5.76           143.56
158.1        9.5             6.39%           1988          4.08%           2.31%           3.44           152.04
167.1         9              5.69%           1989          4.83%           0.86%           1.36           159.46
171.4        4.3             2.57%           1990          5.39%           2.82%           4.71           171.81
173.5        2.1             1.23%           1991          4.25%           3.02%           5.18           176.58
177.3        3.8             2.19%           1992          3.03%           0.84%           1.46           174.96
180.3         3              1.69%           1993          2.96%           1.27%           2.25           179.55
183.7        3.4             1.89%           1994          2.61%           0.72%           1.31           181.61
188.6        4.9             2.67%           1995          2.81%           0.14%           0.26           183.96
195.3        6.7             3.55%           1996          2.93%           0.62%           1.17           189.77
202.1        6.8             3.48%           1997          2.34%           1.14%           2.23           197.53
212.5        10.4            5.15%           1998          1.55%           3.60%           7.27           209.37
224.1        11.6            5.46%           1999          2.19%           3.27%           6.95           219.45
241.3        17.2            7.68%           2000          3.38%           4.30%           9.63           233.73
261.9        20.6            8.54%           2001          2.83%           5.71%           13.77          255.07
                                             2002          1.59%
                                             2003




                                                             Native population


                          Total US Pop                                                 Total Foreign-      Net
                                             Total      Born in the US   Born abroad
                                                                                         born Pop       Immigration


             1990         248,709,873     228,942,557   225,695,826       3,246,731     19,767,316       5,687,410
             1980         226,545,805     212,465,899   210,322,697       2,143,202     14,079,906       4,460,604
             1970         203,210,158     193,590,856   191,329,489       2,261,367      9,619,302       -118,789
             1960         179,325,671     169,587,580   168,525,645       1,061,935      9,738,091       -609,304
             1950         150,216,110     139,868,715   139,442,390        426,325      10,347,395      -1,247,501
             1940         131,669,275     120,074,379   119,795,254        279,125      11,594,896      -2,609,253
             1930         122,775,046     108,570,897   108,304,188        266,709      14,204,149        283,457
             1920         105,710,620     91,789,928     91,659,045        130,883      13,920,692        404,806
1910    91,972,266    78,456,380    78,381,104       75,276      13,515,886      3,174,610
1900    75,994,575    65,653,299    65,583,225       70,074      10,341,276      1,091,729
1890    62,622,250    53,372,703    53,362,371       10,332       9,249,547      2,569,604
1880    50,155,783    43,475,840    43,475,498        342         6,679,943      1,112,714
1870    38,558,371    32,991,142    32,990,922        220         5,567,229      1,428,532
1860    31,443,321    27,304,624    27,304,624         -          4,138,697      1,894,095
1850    23,191,876    20,947,274    20,947,274         -          2,244,602      2,244,602




                                      Yr/Yr %
                         Yr/Yr                       Yr/Yr
                                     Increase                  Yr/YR Increase
       Total US Pop   Population                    Decrease
                                   (Decrease if <                  as a %
                       Increase                      as a %
                                     prior yr)

1790    3,929,214
1800    5,308,483      1,379,269      25.98%
1810    7,239,881      1,931,398      26.68%                       0.69%
1820    9,638,453      2,398,572      24.89%         1.79%
1830    12,860,702     3,222,249      25.06%                       0.17%
1840    17,063,353     4,202,651      24.63%         0.43%
1850    23,191,786     6,128,433      26.43%                       1.80%
1860    31,443,321     8,251,535      26.24%         0.18%
1870    38,558,371     7,115,050      18.45%         7.79%
1880    50,189,209    11,630,838      23.17%                       4.72%
1890    62,979,766    12,790,557      20.31%         2.86%


1900    76,212,168    13,232,402      17.36%         2.95%                          Y

1910    92,228,496    16,016,328      17.37%                       0.00%        1820-2001
1920   106,021,537    13,793,041      13.01%         4.36%                        1820
1930   123,202,624    17,181,087      13.95%                       0.94%          1821
1940   132,164,569     8,961,945       6.78%         7.16%                        1822
1950   151,325,798    19,161,229      12.66%                       5.88%          1823
1960   179,323,175    27,997,377      15.61%                       2.95%          1824
1970   203,302,031    23,978,856      11.79%         3.82%                        1825
1980   226,542,199    23,240,168      10.26%         1.54%                        1826
1990   248,709,873    22,167,674       8.91%         1.35%                        1827
2000   281,421,906    32,712,033      11.62%                       2.71%          1828
                                                                                  1829
                                                                                  1830
                                                                                  1831
                                                                                  1832
                                                                                  1833
                                                                                  1834
                                                                                  1835
                                                                                  1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
                                      Immigration data (Legal and non legal) added to birth's



 Increase/                                          43 year Lag           Housing       Total
                      Live Births +   43 year Lag
Decrease YoY   yyyy                                   (births)    yyyy   Units as %   Housing    yyyy
                      Immigration      (CG5+43)
 Difference                                            (=CH)              to Births   Occupied

               1933     2,981,232        1976        2,981,232    1976     3.72%       73,415    1933
  1,456,000    1934     3,067,636        1977        3,067,636    1977     3.76%       74,784    1934
  395,000      1935     3,055,105        1978        3,055,105    1978     3.66%       76,548    1935
  388,000      1936     3,044,790        1979        3,044,790    1979     3.55%       78,146    1936
  (235,000)    1937     3,103,337        1980        3,103,337    1980     3.54%       79,368    1937
  1,119,000    1938     3,186,962        1981        3,186,962    1981     3.51%       81,020    1938
 (2,109,000)   1939     3,165,588        1982        3,165,588    1982     3.45%       82,793    1939
  154,000      1940     4,370,399        1983        4,370,399    1983     4.70%       83,731    1940
  1,044,000    1941     4,523,427        1984        4,523,427    1984     4.75%       84,565    1941
  (135,000)    1942     4,818,996        1985        4,818,996    1985     4.95%       86,346    1942
  (92,000)     1943     4,944,000        1986        4,944,000    1986     4.98%       87,889    1943
  508,000      1944     4,804,000        1987        4,804,000    1987     4.72%       89,145    1944
  (651,000)    1945     4,745,000        1988        4,745,000    1988     4.58%       90,517    1945
  234,000      1946     5,299,000        1989        5,299,000    1989     5.01%       92,020    1946
 (1,522,000)   1947     5,709,000        1990        5,709,000    1990     5.37%       93,489    1947
  439,000      1948     5,545,000        1991        5,545,000    1991     5.17%       95,253    1948
   47,000      1949     5,569,000        1992        5,569,000    1992     5.14%       96,391    1949
  255,000      1950     6,354,000        1993        6,354,000    1993     5.80%       97,717    1950
   46,000      1951     6,551,000        1994        6,551,000    1994     5.90%       98,695    1951
  362,000      1952     6,647,000        1995        6,647,000    1995     5.90%       99,985    1952
  (219,000)    1953     6,817,000        1996        6,817,000    1996     5.97%       100,984   1953
   (2,000)     1954     6,817,000        1997        6,817,000    1997     5.90%       102,202   1954
  179,000      1955     6,847,000        1998        6,847,000    1998     5.84%       103,534   1955
  101,000      1956     6,963,000        1999        6,963,000    1999     5.85%       104,928   1956
 (1,178,000)   1957     7,055,000        2000        7,055,000    2000     5.90%       105,720   1957
  1,268,000    1958     7,004,000        2001        7,004,000    2001     5.77%       107,010   1958
  (14,000)     1959     7,045,000        2002        7,045,000    2002     5.71%       108,539   1959
               1960     6,678,000        2003        6,678,000                                   1960
               1961     6,688,000        2004        6,688,000                                   1961
               1962     6,587,000        2005        6,587,000                                   1962
               1963     6,501,000        2006        6,501,000                                   1963
               1964     6,447,000        2007        6,447,000                                   1964
               1965     6,180,000        2008        6,180,000                                   1965
               1966     6,026,000        2009        6,026,000                                   1966
               1967     5,940,000        2010        5,940,000                                   1967
               1968     5,921,000        2011        5,921,000                                   1968
               1969     6,020,000        2012        6,020,000                                   1969
               1970     5,951,000        2013        5,951,000                                   1970
               1971     5,775,000        2014        5,775,000                                   1971
          1972          5,478,000      2015        5,478,000                                          1972


          1973          5,356,000      2016        5,356,000                                          1973
          1974          5,379,000      2017        5,379,000                                          1974
          1975          5,364,000      2018        5,364,000                                          1975
          1976          5,387,000      2019        5,387,000                                          1976
          1977          5,546,000      2020        5,546,000                                          1977
          1978          5,553,000      2021        5,553,000                                          1978
          1979          5,714,000      2022        5,714,000                                          1979
          1980          5,832,000      2023        5,832,000                                          1980
          1981          5,849,000      2024        5,849,000                                          1981
          1982          5,900,537      2025        5,900,537                                          1982
          1983          5,858,933      2026        5,858,933                                          1983
          1984          5,889,141      2027        5,889,141                                          1984
          1985          5,980,561      2028        5,980,561                                          1985
          1986          5,976,547      2029        5,976,547                                          1986
          1987          6,029,394      2030        6,029,394                                          1987
          1988          6,129,510      2031        6,129,510                                          1988
          1989          6,260,957      2032        6,260,957                                          1989
          1990          7,428,212      2033        7,428,212                                          1990
          1991          7,380,907      2034        7,380,907                                          1991
          1992          7,335,014      2035        7,335,014                                          1992
          1993          7,270,240      2036        7,270,240                                          1993
          1994          7,122,767      2037        7,122,767                                          1994
          1995          7,169,589      2038        7,169,589                                          1995
          1996          7,161,494      2039        7,161,494                                          1996
          1997          7,150,894      2040        7,150,894                                          1997
          1998          7,213,553      2041        7,213,553                                          1998
          1999          7,229,417      2042        7,229,417                                          1999
          2000          7,334,948      2043        7,334,948                                          2000
          2001          7,295,933      2044        7,295,933                                          2001
          2002                         2045                                                           2002
          2003                         2046                                                           2003




                                     Average      Immigration
         All Net                    Yearly Total - Rates (Per                  (All)       Yearly
YR                         YR                                      YR
       Immigration                      All          1000                   Immigration   average
                                     Countries Population)

1990    5,687,410    1630-1700             2,200 ----           1900-1910   16,300,000    1,630,000
1980    4,460,604    1700-1780             4,325 ----           1910-1920   14,100,000    1,410,000
1970    -118,789     1780-1819             9,900 ----           1920-1930   16,600,000    1,660,000
1960    -609,304     1820-1831            14,538          1.3   1930-1940    9,000,000    900,000
1950   -1,247,501    1832-1846            71,916          4.3   1940-1950   20,100,000    2,010,000
1940   -2,609,253    1847-1854          334,506            14   1950-1960   28,000,000    2,800,000
1930     283,457     1855-1864          160,427           5.2   1960-1970   24,200,000    2,420,000
1920     404,806     1865-1873          327,464           8.4   1970-1980   22,200,000    2,220,000
    1910      3,174,610   1874-1880   260,754    5.6   1980-1990   22,200,000   2,220,000
    1900      1,091,729   1881-1893   525,102    8.9   1990-2000   32,700,000   3,270,000
    1890      2,569,604   1894-1899   276,547    3.9
    1880      1,112,714   1900-1914   891,806   10.2
    1870      1,428,532   1915-1919   234,536    2.3
    1860      1,894,095   1920-1930   412,474    3.6
    1850      2,244,602   1931-1946    50,507    0.4
                          1947-1960   252,210    1.5
                          1961-1970   332,168    1.7
                          1971-1980   449,331    2.1
                          1981-1990   733,806    3.1
                          1991-1998   950,634    3.6




   Legal
Immigration
  Number
 67,153,749
    8,385
    9,127
    6,911
    6,354
    7,912
   10,199
   10,837
   18,875
   27,382
   22,520
   23,322
   22,633
   60,482
   58,640
   65,365
   45,374
   76,242
 79,340
 38,914
 68,069
 84,066
 80,289
104,565
 52,496
 78,615
114,371
154,416
234,968
226,527
297,024
369,980
379,466
371,603
368,645
427,833
200,877
200,436
251,306
123,126
121,282
153,640
 91,918
 91,985
176,252
193,418
248,120
318,568
315,722
138,840
352,769
387,203
321,350
404,806
459,803
313,339
227,498
169,986
141,857
138,469
177,826
457,257
669,431
788,992
603,322
518,592
395,346
334,203
490,109
546,889
 444,427
 455,302
 560,319
 579,663
 439,730
 285,631
 258,536
 343,267
 230,832
 229,299
 311,715
 448,572
 487,918
 648,743
 857,046
 812,870
1,026,499
 110,735
1,285,349
 782,870
 751,786
1,041,570
 878,587
 838,182
1,197,892
1,218,480
 326,700
 298,826
 295,403
 110,618
 141,132
 430,001
 805,228
 309,556
 522,919
 706,896
 294,314
 304,488
 335,175
 307,255
 279,678
 241,700
  97,139
  35,476
  23,068
  29,470
  34,956
  36,329
  50,244
  67,895
  82,998
  70,756
  51,776
  28,781
  23,725
  28,551
  38,119
 108,721
 147,292
 170,570
 188,317
 249,187
 205,717
 265,520
 170,434
 208,177
 237,790
 321,625
 326,867
 253,265
 260,686
 265,398
 271,344
 283,763
 306,260
 292,248
 296,697
 323,040
 361,972
 454,448
 358,849
 373,326
 370,478
 384,685
 400,063
 394,861
 386,194
 398,613
 462,315
 601,442
 460,348
 530,639
 596,000
 594,131
 559,763
 543,903
 570,009
 601,708
 601,516
 643,025
1,090,924
1,536,483
1,827,167
 973,977
 904,292
 804,416
 720,461
 915,900
 798,378
 654,451
 646,568
 849,807
1,064,318
added to birth's                                                                           By adding Immigration, the pool of buye



                         26 year Lag
         Live Births +               26 year Lag
         Immigration
                             (YR)
                                        (=CO)
                                                                                                     Buyers Pool for Trade
                          (CN5+26)

           2,981,232        1959      2,981,232
           3,067,636        1960      3,067,636
                                                   (Millions)   8.5
           3,055,105        1961      3,055,105
           3,044,790        1962      3,044,790
                                                                7.5
           3,103,337        1963      3,103,337
           3,186,962        1964      3,186,962
           3,165,588        1965      3,165,588                 6.5
           4,370,399        1966      4,370,399
           4,523,427        1967      4,523,427                 5.5
           4,818,996        1968      4,818,996
           4,944,000        1969      4,944,000
           4,804,000        1970      4,804,000                 4.5
           4,745,000        1971      4,745,000
           5,299,000        1972      5,299,000                 3.5
           5,709,000        1973      5,709,000
           5,545,000        1974      5,545,000
           5,569,000        1975      5,569,000                 2.5
           6,354,000        1976      6,354,000
           6,551,000        1977      6,551,000                 1.5
           6,647,000        1978      6,647,000
                                                                      1976

                                                                             1979

                                                                                    1982

                                                                                           1985

                                                                                                  1988

                                                                                                         1991

                                                                                                                1994

                                                                                                                       1997

                                                                                                                              2000
           6,817,000        1979      6,817,000
           6,817,000        1980      6,817,000
           6,847,000        1981      6,847,000
           6,963,000        1982      6,963,000
           7,055,000        1983      7,055,000
           7,004,000        1984      7,004,000
           7,045,000        1985      7,045,000                                                          Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Hom
           6,678,000        1986      6,678,000
           6,688,000        1987      6,688,000
           6,587,000        1988      6,587,000
                                                                8.5
                                                   (Millions)




           6,501,000        1989      6,501,000
           6,447,000        1990      6,447,000                 7.5
           6,180,000        1991      6,180,000
           6,026,000        1992      6,026,000
           5,940,000        1993      5,940,000                 6.5
           5,921,000        1994      5,921,000
           6,020,000        1995      6,020,000
                                                                5.5
           5,951,000        1996      5,951,000
           5,775,000        1997      5,775,000
                                                                4.5
                                          4.5
5,478,000   1998   5,478,000
                                          3.5
5,356,000   1999   5,356,000
5,379,000   2000   5,379,000
5,364,000   2001   5,364,000
                                          2.5
5,387,000   2002   5,387,000
5,546,000   2003   5,546,000              1.5
5,553,000   2004   5,553,000




                                                1959

                                                          1962

                                                                        1965

                                                                                 1968

                                                                                         1971

                                                                                                  1974

                                                                                                                1977

                                                                                                                          1980

                                                                                                                                   1983

                                                                                                                                           1986
5,714,000   2005   5,714,000
5,832,000   2006   5,832,000
5,849,000   2007   5,849,000
5,900,537   2008   5,900,537                                                                                       Potential Buyers Pool
5,858,933   2009   5,858,933
5,889,141   2010   5,889,141
5,980,561   2011   5,980,561
5,976,547   2012   5,976,547                                                     Pool of Buyers vs. Housing Price Index YoY %
6,029,394   2013   6,029,394
6,129,510   2014   6,129,510
6,260,957   2015   6,260,957
7,428,212   2016   7,428,212
                               Millions




7,380,907   2017   7,380,907
                                            7.00
7,335,014   2018   7,335,014
7,270,240   2019   7,270,240
7,122,767   2020   7,122,767                6.00
7,169,589   2021   7,169,589
7,161,494   2022   7,161,494
7,150,894   2023   7,150,894                5.00
7,213,553   2024   7,213,553
7,229,417   2025   7,229,417
                                            4.00
7,334,948   2026   7,334,948
7,295,933   2027   7,295,933
            2028                            3.00
            2029

                                            2.00
                                                       1976




                                                                                  1979
                                                                 1977
                                                                          1978


                                                                                         1980
                                                                                                1981
                                                                                                         1982
                                                                                                                   1983
                                                                                                                            1984
                                                                                                                                   1985
                                                                                                                                          1986




                                                                                                           Pool of home buyers vs. Housin

                               7,500,000
                               7,000,000
                               6,500,000
                               6,000,000
                               5,500,000
                               5,000,000
                               4,500,000
                               4,000,000
                               3,500,000
                               3,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000




                                        1980
            1976

                   1977

                          1978

                                 1979



                                               1981

                                                      1982

                                                             1983

                                                                     1984

                                                                            1985

                                                                                   1986
                                                                    Pool of Buyers
gration, the pool of buyers has grown enormously




ool for Trade-up homes (all immigration)                                                               yyyy


                                                                                                       1933
                                                                                                       1934
                                                                                                       1935
                                                                                                       1936
                                                                                                       1937
                                                                                                       1938
                                                                                                       1939
                                                                                                       1940
                                                                                                       1941
                                                                                                       1942
                                                                                                       1943
                                                                                                       1944
           Potential Buyers Pool                                                                       1945
            (43-year birth lag)                                                                        1946
                                                                                                       1947
                                                                                                       1948
                                                                                                       1949
                                                                                                       1950
                                                                                                       1951
                                                                                                       1952
            2003




                                                                                                2039
                   2006

                          2009

                                 2012

                                        2015

                                               2018

                                                      2021

                                                             2024

                                                                    2027

                                                                           2030

                                                                                  2033

                                                                                         2036




                                                                                                       1953
                                                                                                       1954
                      Year                                                                             1955
                                                                                                       1956
                                                                                                       1957
                                                                                                       1958
Buyers Pool for Starter Homes (all immigration)                                                        1959
                                                                                                       1960
                                                                                                       1961
                                                                                                       1962
                                                                                                       1963
                                                                                                       1964
                                                                                                       1965
                                                                                                       1966
                                                                                                       1967
                                                                                                       1968
                                                                                                       1969
                                                                                                       1970
                                                                                                       1971
                 Potential Buyers Pool for Starter                                                                                                           1972
                    Homes (26-year birth lag)

                                                                                                                                                             1973
                                                                                                                                                             1974
                                                                                                                                                             1975
                                                                                                                                                             1976
                                                                                                                                                             1977
                                                                                                                                                             1978
                                                             2001
          1986

                    1989

                                  1992

                                            1995

                                                    1998



                                                                       2004

                                                                                     2007

                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                      2013

                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                             2019

                                                                                                                                       2022

                                                                                                                                                2025
                                                                                                                                                             1979
                                                                                                                                                             1980
                                                                                                                                                             1981
otential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes                                                                                                                       1982
                                                                                                                                                             1983
                                                                                                                                                             1984
                                                                                                                                                             1985
Housing Price Index YoY % Increase adj. for inflation                                                                                                        1986
                                                                                                                                                             1987
                                                                                                                                                             1988
                                                                                                                                                             1989
                                                                                                                                               6.14%         1990
                                                                                                                                                             1991
                                                                                                                                                             1992
                                                                                                                                               5.14%         1993
                                                                                                                                                             1994
                                                                                                                                               4.14%         1995
                                                                                                                                                             1996
                                                                                                                                                             1997
                                                                                                                                               3.14%
                                                                                                                                                             1998
                                                                                                                                                             1999
                                                                                                                                               2.14%         2000
                                                                                                                                                             2001
                                                                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                                               1.14%
                                                                                                                                                             2003

                                                                                                                                               0.14%
                                                                    1993
         1986
                 1987
                           1988
                                     1989
                                             1990
                                                    1991
                                                           1992


                                                                              1994
                                                                                       1995
                                                                                              1996
                                                                                                     1997
                                                                                                             1998
                                                                                                                      1999
                                                                                                                                2000
                                                                                                                                        2001




of home buyers vs. Housing Price index

                                                                                                                                                       275
                                                                                                                                                       250
                                                                                                                                                       225
                                                                                                                                                       200
                                                                                                                                                       175
                                                                                                                                                       150
                                                                                                                                                       125
                                                                                                                                                       100
Pool of Buyers
                                           1986

                                           1987

                                           1988

                                           1989

                                           1990

                                           1991

                                           1992

                                           1993

                                           1994
Housing Price Index (Adj. for Inflation)




                                           1995

                                           1996

                                           1997

                                           1998

                                           1999

                                           2000

                                           2001
                                                  50
                                                  75
                                                  100
                                                                 Immigration data (Legal) added to hou



Births+legal   43 year Lag             26 year Lag
immigration        YR
                           43 year Lag
                                           (YR)
                                                   26 year Lag                                                         Buyers Pool for
 2,104,300        1976      2,104,300     1959      2,104,300
 2,197,106        1977      2,197,106     1960      2,197,106                 6.5




                                                                 (Millions)
 2,190,061        1978      2,190,061     1961      2,190,061
 2,181,119        1979      2,181,119     1962      2,181,119                 6.0
 2,253,581        1980      2,253,581     1963      2,253,581
                                                                              5.5
 2,354,857        1981      2,354,857     1964      2,354,857
 2,348,586        1982      2,348,586     1965      2,348,586                 5.0
 2,431,155        1983      2,431,155     1966      2,431,155
 2,565,203        1984      2,565,203     1967      2,565,203                 4.5
 2,837,777        1985      2,837,777     1968      2,837,777
 2,957,725        1986      2,957,725     1969      2,957,725
                                                                              4.0
 2,822,551        1987      2,822,551     1970      2,822,551                 3.5
 2,773,119        1988      2,773,119     1971      2,773,119
 3,397,721        1989      3,397,721     1972      3,397,721                 3.0
 3,846,292        1990      3,846,292     1973      3,846,292
 3,705,570        1991      3,705,570     1974      3,705,570                 2.5
 3,747,317        1992      3,747,317     1975      3,747,317
 3,803,187        1993      3,803,187     1976      3,803,187
                                                                              2.0
 3,956,717        1994      3,956,717     1977      3,956,717                 1.5
 4,112,520        1995      4,112,520     1978      4,112,520                                            1985
                                                                                    1976

                                                                                           1979

                                                                                                  1982



                                                                                                                1988

                                                                                                                         1991
 4,187,434        1996      4,187,434     1979      4,187,434
 4,225,177        1997      4,225,177     1980      4,225,177
 4,284,790        1998      4,284,790     1981      4,284,790
 4,484,625        1999      4,484,625     1982      4,484,625
 4,581,867        2000      4,581,867     1983      4,581,867
 4,457,265        2001      4,457,265     1984      4,457,265
 4,505,686        2002      4,505,686     1985      4,505,686                                                            Potential Buyers Po
 4,523,398        2003      4,523,398     1986      4,523,398
 4,539,344        2004      4,539,344     1987      4,539,344
 4,450,763        2005      4,450,763     1988      4,450,763
                                                                              6.5
                                                                 (Millions)




 4,387,260        2006      4,387,260     1989      4,387,260
                                                                              6.0
 4,319,248        2007      4,319,248     1990      4,319,248
 4,056,697        2008      4,056,697     1991      4,056,697                 5.5
 3,929,040        2009      3,929,040     1992      3,929,040
 3,881,972        2010      3,881,972     1993      3,881,972                 5.0
 3,955,448        2011      3,955,448     1994      3,955,448
 3,958,849        2012      3,958,849     1995      3,958,849                 4.5
 4,104,326        2013      4,104,326     1996      4,104,326
 3,925,478        2014      3,925,478     1997      3,925,478
                                                                              4.0
                                                                              3.5
                                                  3.5
3,642,685   2015   3,642,685   1998   3,642,685
                                                  3.0
3,536,063   2016   3,536,063   1999   3,536,063
3,553,861   2017   3,553,861   2000   3,553,861
                                                  2.5
3,530,194   2018   3,530,194   2001   3,530,194
                                                  2.0
3,565,613   2019   3,565,613   2002   3,565,613
3,788,315   2020   3,788,315   2003   3,788,315   1.5
3,934,442   2021   3,934,442   2004   3,934,442




                                                        1959

                                                               1962

                                                                      1965

                                                                             1968

                                                                                    1971

                                                                                           1974
3,954,348   2022   3,954,348   2005   3,954,348
4,142,639   2023   4,142,639   2006   4,142,639
4,225,000   2024   4,225,000   2007   4,225,000
4,274,668   2025   4,274,668   2008   4,274,668
4,198,696   2026   4,198,696   2009   4,198,696
4,213,044   2027   4,213,044   2010   4,213,044
4,330,570   2028   4,330,570   2011   4,330,570
4,358,255   2029   4,358,255   2012   4,358,255
4,410,910   2030   4,410,910   2013   4,410,910
4,552,535   2031   4,552,535   2014   4,552,535
5,131,881   2032   5,131,881   2015   5,131,881
5,694,695   2033   5,694,695   2016   5,694,695
5,938,074   2034   5,938,074   2017   5,938,074
5,038,991   2035   5,038,991   2018   5,038,991
4,904,532   2036   4,904,532   2019   4,904,532
4,657,183   2037   4,657,183   2020   4,657,183
4,620,050   2038   4,620,050   2021   4,620,050
4,807,394   2039   4,807,394   2022   4,807,394
4,679,272   2040   4,679,272   2023   4,679,272
4,598,004   2041   4,598,004   2024   4,598,004
4,605,985   2042   4,605,985   2025   4,605,985
4,914,755   2043   4,914,755   2026   4,914,755
5,090,251   2044   5,090,251   2027   5,090,251
            2045               2028
            2046               2029
Legal) added to housing figures



   Buyers Pool for Trade-up homes (legal immigration)




                                     Potential Buyers Pool
                                      (43-year birth lag)
      1991

             1994

                    1997

                           2000

                                  2003

                                         2006

                                                2009

                                                       2012

                                                              2015

                                                                     2018

                                                                            2021

                                                                                   2024

                                                                                          2027

                                                                                                 2030

                                                                                                        2033

                                                                                                               2036

                                                                                                                      2039

                                                                                                                             2042
                                                Year



      Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes (legal immigration)
                                   Potential Buyers Pool for Starter
                                      Homes (26-year birth lag)




                                                              1998
1974

       1977

              1980

                     1983

                            1986

                                      1989

                                              1992

                                                      1995



                                                                       2001

                                                                              2004

                                                                                     2007

                                                                                            2010

                                                                                                   2013

                                                                                                          2016

                                                                                                                 2019

                                                                                                                        2022
          Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes
         World
       Population   Table 7. Percentage distribution of the population in major age groups by country,
         stats

        Source                                                2000
                         Country or area*                  Age groups
                                                   0-14       15-59       60+


                               World                30.0       60.0      10.0

                           Afghanistan              43.5       51.8      4.7
                             Albania                30.0       61.1      9.0
                              Algeria               34.8       59.1      6.0
                              Angola                48.2       47.3      4.5
                            Argentina               27.7       59.0      13.3
                             Armenia                23.7       63.1      13.2
                            Australia 1             20.5       63.1      16.3
                              Austria               16.6       62.6      20.7
                           Azerbaijan               29.0       60.5      10.5
                             Bahamas                29.6       62.4      8.0
                              Bahrain               28.2       67.1      4.7
                           Bangladesh               38.7       56.4      4.9
                            Barbados                20.7       66.0      13.4
                              Belarus               18.7       62.4      18.9
                             Belgium                17.3       60.6      22.1
                               Belize               38.4       55.6      6.0
                               Benin                46.4       49.4      4.2
                              Bhutan                42.7       50.8      6.5
                              Bolivia               39.6       54.2      6.2
                     Bosnia and Herzegovina         18.9       66.1      14.9
2042




                            Botswana                42.1       53.4      4.5
                               Brazil               28.8       63.4      7.8
                       Brunei Darussalam            31.9       63.0      5.1
                             Bulgaria               15.7       62.6      21.7
                          Burkina Faso              48.7       46.5      4.8
                             Burundi                47.6       48.1      4.3
                            Cambodia                43.9       51.8      4.4
                           Cameroon                 43.1       51.3      5.6
                             Canada                 19.1       64.2      16.7
                          Cape Verde                39.3       54.2      6.5
                     Central African Republic       43.0       50.9      6.1
                               Chad                 46.5       48.6      4.9
                        Channel Islands             17.5       62.8      19.7
                               Chile                28.5       61.4      10.2
                               China                24.8       65.0      10.1
                     China, Hong Kong SAR 2         16.3       69.3      14.3
                       China, Macao SAR 3           22.1       68.2      9.7
                            Colombia                32.8       60.3      6.9
                            Comoros                 43.0       52.8      4.2
                 Congo               46.3   48.7   5.1

                 Costa Rica          32.4   60.2   7.5
               Côte d'Ivoire         42.1   52.9   5.0
                  Croatia            18.0   61.8   20.2
                    Cuba             21.2   65.1   13.7
                  Cyprus             23.1   61.2   15.7
             Czech Republic          16.4   65.2   18.4
2025




       Dem. People's Rep. of Korea   26.5   63.5   10.0
         Dem. Rep. of the Congo      48.8   46.7   4.5
                 Denmark             18.3   61.8   20.0
                  Djibouti           43.2   51.2   5.5
           Dominican Republic        33.5   59.9   6.6
                East Timor           43.0   52.2   4.7
                  Ecuador            33.8   59.2   6.9
                    Egypt            35.4   58.3   6.3
                El Salvador          35.6   57.2   7.2
            Equatorial Guinea        43.7   50.3   6.0
                   Eritrea           43.9   51.4   4.7
                  Estonia            17.7   62.1   20.2
                  Ethiopia           45.2   50.1   4.7
                      Fiji           33.3   60.9   5.7
                  Finland            18.0   62.0   19.9
                   France            18.7   60.7   20.5
              French Guiana          34.8   58.8   6.4
            French Polynesia         30.8   62.3   6.8
                   Gabon             40.2   51.1   8.7
                  Gambia             40.3   54.6   5.2
                  Georgia            20.5   60.8   18.7
                 Germany             15.5   61.2   23.2
                    Ghana            40.9   54.0   5.1
                  Greece             15.1   61.5   23.4
               Guadeloupe            24.5   62.7   12.7
                    Guam             34.7   56.9   8.4
                Guatemala            43.6   51.1   5.3
                  Guinea             44.1   51.5   4.4
              Guinea-Bissau          43.5   50.9   5.6
                  Guyana             30.6   62.5   6.9
                     Haiti           40.6   53.8   5.6
                 Honduras            41.8   53.1   5.1
                  Hungary            16.9   63.3   19.7
                  Iceland            23.3   61.6   15.1
                    India            33.5   58.9   7.6
                 Indonesia           30.8   61.6   7.6
        Iran (Islamic Republic of)   37.4   57.4   5.2
                     Iraq            41.6   53.8   4.6
                   Ireland           21.6   63.2   15.2
                    Israel           28.3   58.6   13.2
                     Italy           14.3   61.7   24.1
                  Jamaica            31.5   58.9   9.6
           Japan             14.7   62.1   23.2
          Jordan             40.0   55.4   4.5
       Kazakhstan            27.0   61.8   11.2
          Kenya              43.5   52.3   4.2
          Kuwait             31.3   64.3   4.4
       Kyrgyzstan            33.9   57.1   9.0
Lao People's Dem. Republic   42.7   51.6   5.6
           Latvia            17.4   61.7   20.9
         Lebanon             31.1   60.3   8.5
         Lesotho             39.3   54.2   6.5
          Liberia            42.7   52.8   4.5

  Libyan Arab Jamahiriya     33.9   60.6   5.5




        Lithuania            19.5   62.0   18.6


       Luxembourg            18.7   62.0   19.4
       Madagascar            44.7   50.5   4.7
          Malawi             46.3   49.0   4.6
         Malaysia            34.1   59.3   6.6
         Maldives            43.7   51.0   5.3
           Mali              46.1   48.1   5.7
          Malta              20.2   62.9   17.0
        Martinique           22.5   62.5   15.0
        Mauritania           44.1   51.1   4.7
        Mauritius 4          25.6   65.4   9.0
         Mexico              33.1   59.9   6.9

        Mongolia             35.2   59.2   5.6

       Morocco               34.7   59.0   6.4
     Mozambique              43.9   50.9   5.1
       Myanmar               33.1   60.1   6.8
        Namibia              43.7   50.6   5.6
         Nepal               41.0   53.1   5.9
      Netherlands            18.3   63.4   18.3
  Netherlands Antilles       24.6   63.8   11.6
    New Caledonia            29.9   61.9   8.2
     New Zealand             23.0   61.5   15.6
       Nicaragua             42.6   52.8   4.6
         Niger               49.9   46.9   3.3
        Nigeria              45.1   50.2   4.8
        Norway               19.8   60.7   19.6
Occupied Palestinian Terr.   46.4   48.7   4.9
         Oman                44.1   51.7   4.2
        Pakistan             41.8   52.5   5.8
        Panama               31.3   60.6   8.1
   Papua New Guinea          40.1   55.7   4.1
          Paraguay            39.5   55.1   5.3
             Peru             33.4   59.4   7.2
         Philippines          37.5   56.9   5.5
            Poland            19.2   64.3   16.6
           Portugal           16.7   62.5   20.8
         Puerto Rico          23.8   61.9   14.3
             Qatar            26.7   70.2   3.1
     Republic of Korea        20.8   68.2   11.0
   Republic of Moldova        23.1   63.2   13.7
           Reunion            28.1   62.1   9.9
           Romania            18.3   62.9   18.8
    Russian Federation        18.0   63.5   18.5
           Rwanda             44.3   51.5   4.2
         Saint Lucia          32.1   60.2   7.8
            Samoa             41.2   52.0   6.8
       Saudi Arabia           42.9   52.3   4.8
           Senegal            44.3   51.5   4.2
        Sierra Leone          44.2   51.0   4.8
         Singapore            21.9   67.6   10.6
           Slovakia           19.5   65.1   15.4
           Slovenia           15.9   65.0   19.2
      Solomon Islands         44.8   51.0   4.2
           Somalia            48.0   48.1   3.9
        South Africa          34.0   60.3   5.7
             Spain            14.7   63.5   21.8
          Sri Lanka           26.3   64.4   9.3
            Sudan             40.1   54.4   5.5
          Suriname            30.5   61.4   8.1
          Swaziland           41.6   53.1   5.3
           Sweden             18.2   59.4   22.4
        Switzerland           16.7   62.1   21.3
   Syrian Arab Republic       40.8   54.4   4.7
          Tajikistan          39.4   53.8   6.8
     TFYR Macedonia 5         22.6   63.0   14.4
           Thailand           26.7   65.2   8.1
             Togo             44.3   50.9   4.9
   Trinidad and Tobago        25.0   65.4   9.6
            Tunisia           29.7   61.9   8.4
            Turkey            30.0   61.5   8.4
       Turkmenistan           37.6   55.9   6.5
           Uganda             49.2   47.0   3.8
           Ukraine            17.8   61.6   20.5
   United Arab Emirates       26.0   68.9   5.1
      United Kingdom          19.0   60.4   20.6
United Republic of Tanzania   45.0   51.0   4.0
 United States of America     21.7   62.1   16.1
           Uruguay            24.8   58.1   17.2
         Uzbekistan           36.3   56.7   7.1
           Vanuatu            42.0   53.0   5.0
         Venezuela            34.0   59.4   6.6
          Viet Nam            33.4   59.2   7.5
      Western Sahara          36.4   55.9   7.7
             Yemen                50.1       46.3       3.6
           Yugoslavia             20.0       61.7      18.3
             Zambia               46.5       48.9       4.5
           Zimbabwe               45.2       50.1       4.7
Source : United Nations Population Division.
1
  Including Christmas Islands, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.
2
  As of July 1st 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of Ch
3
  As of December 20th 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) o
4
  Including Agalega, Rodrigues and St. Brandon.
5
  The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
* Countries or areas with 140,000 persons or more in 2000.
in major age groups by country, 2000 and 2050 (medium-variant)


                                          2050

                                    Age groups
                        0-14      15-59           60+


                        21.0       58.0           21.1

                        30.5       61.8           7.7
                        19.0       56.4           24.6
                        19.7       58.1           22.2
                        36.7       58.1           5.2
                        19.7       56.9           23.4
                        12.2       48.3           39.5
                        17.7       54.1           28.2
                        11.6       47.4           41.0
                        15.1       52.8           32.1
                        19.8       56.7           23.5
                        18.2       56.9           24.9
                        22.0       62.0           16.0
                        15.0       49.6           35.4
                        14.6       49.6           35.8
                        14.2       50.3           35.5
                        19.8       58.5           21.7
                        27.3       63.8           8.9
                        24.2       63.6           12.2
                        21.8       61.8           16.4
                        12.9       49.3           37.7
                        24.6       63.5           11.9
                        19.9       56.5           23.6
                        18.8       57.4           23.8
                        13.8       47.6           38.6
                        33.9       59.5           6.5
                        33.3       59.9           6.8
                        24.3       64.0           11.7
                        24.8       64.1           11.2
                        16.3       53.2           30.5
                        20.7       59.7           19.6
                        25.9       64.7           9.4
                        30.9       62.3           6.8
                        13.3       51.1           35.5
                        19.8       56.7           23.5
                        16.3       53.8           29.9
                        13.9       50.7           35.4
                        12.5       49.1           38.5
                        20.3       58.2           21.5
                        23.8       64.0           12.2
31.0   62.0   6.9

20.2   57.5   22.3
24.3   63.3   12.4
16.3   53.0   30.8
15.4   50.6   34.0
16.7   53.4   29.9
13.6   46.3   40.1
19.6   58.0   22.4
31.7   62.1   6.2
15.2   53.0   31.8
28.1   66.1   5.8
21.0   58.4   20.7
21.8   60.3   18.0
20.0   58.1   21.9
20.1   59.1   20.8
20.6   58.8   20.6
27.2   64.2   8.6
25.3   64.7   10.0
15.6   48.5   35.9
32.5   60.9   6.6
17.8   58.9   23.3
15.0   50.6   34.4
16.0   51.3   32.7
24.0   61.7   14.3
19.7   57.1   23.2
25.7   65.0   9.3
23.5   64.5   12.0
14.4   49.8   35.8
12.4   49.5   38.1
23.2   62.1   14.7
13.1   46.2   40.7
16.5   52.3   31.2
21.9   62.1   15.9
22.6   62.9   14.4
26.2   64.3   9.6
28.1   64.0   7.9
17.2   51.8   31.0
22.9   61.5   15.6
21.9   61.7   16.4
14.4   49.4   36.2
17.3   53.2   29.5
19.7   59.7   20.6
19.9   57.7   22.3
20.1   58.1   21.7
22.5   62.4   15.1
19.1   53.3   27.6
18.9   56.3   24.8
11.5   46.2   42.3
19.3   56.7   24.0
12.5   45.2   42.3
22.5   61.9   15.6
17.7   56.8   25.4
24.3   62.7   13.0
19.7   54.7   25.7
20.0   57.7   22.3
23.2   63.4   13.3
15.0   47.5   37.5
17.5   57.1   25.4
24.5   66.0   9.5
33.5   59.8   6.7

20.1   58.7   21.1




14.6   48.1   37.3


17.7   57.1   25.2
26.8   63.9   9.3
32.2   61.2   6.6
19.8   59.4   20.8
24.2   63.7   12.1
33.6   59.4   7.0
15.3   51.1   33.6
15.7   51.7   32.6
27.2   63.8   8.9
17.4   56.4   26.1
19.3   56.3   24.4

19.7   57.2   23.1

20.1   59.3   20.6
26.8   65.4   7.8
19.7   58.7   21.6
24.7   64.2   11.1
23.6   64.0   12.4
14.7   52.5   32.8
17.4   55.8   26.8
19.5   58.0   22.6
17.1   53.7   29.3
22.0   61.9   16.1
38.4   56.6   5.0
25.1   64.6   10.3
16.1   51.7   32.3
26.7   63.3   9.9
26.8   62.7   10.5
23.1   64.4   12.4
19.1   56.5   24.4
23.2   64.6   12.1
22.2   61.9   16.0
19.8   57.8   22.4
20.3   60.1   19.5
15.7   48.7   35.6
14.4   49.9   35.7
17.0   55.1   27.9
19.8   59.5   20.7
16.5   50.4   33.2
15.3   52.2   32.5
17.4   56.2   26.5
15.9   50.0   34.2
13.5   49.3   37.2
27.2   63.8   9.0
19.7   58.3   22.0
22.7   62.6   14.7
23.1   64.0   12.9
24.4   64.7   11.0
31.0   62.2   6.8
13.9   51.1   35.0
13.2   50.0   36.8
12.4   45.1   42.4
24.6   64.5   10.8
36.3   58.0   5.7
23.6   62.7   13.7
11.4   44.5   44.1
17.3   55.1   27.6
22.7   62.9   14.4
16.5   54.1   29.4
25.8   65.0   9.1
14.0   48.3   37.7
12.5   48.6   38.9
21.8   60.2   18.0
20.0   59.0   21.0
14.2   52.0   33.8
17.1   55.8   27.1
25.4   64.5   10.1
16.4   50.3   33.3
19.6   55.9   24.6
19.5   57.5   23.0
20.1   60.0   19.9
34.8   59.5   5.7
12.9   49.0   38.1
18.6   54.8   26.7
15.0   51.1   34.0
24.3   64.6   11.0
18.5   54.6   26.9
19.2   55.9   24.9
19.9   57.8   22.3
22.7   63.4   13.9
20.2   58.4   21.4
19.8   56.6   23.5
22.0   62.2   15.9
                           37.0       57.7   5.3
                           15.2       52.4   32.5
                           28.6       63.6   7.9
                           24.9       63.8   11.3

nds and Norfolk Island.
Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
cial Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
                                        Buyers Pool for Trade-up homes (includes legal immigration)

             6.5
(Millions)




             6.0
             5.5
             5.0
             4.5
             4.0
             3.5
             3.0
                                                                                     Potential Buyers Pool
             2.5                                                                      (43-year birth lag)

             2.0
             1.5
                                                      1991
                   1976

                          1979

                                 1982

                                        1985

                                               1988



                                                             1994

                                                                    1997

                                                                           2000

                                                                                  2003

                                                                                            2006

                                                                                                    2009

                                                                                                            2012

                                                                                                                    2015

                                                                                                                             2018
                                                                                                    Year


                                           Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes (includes legal immigration)


             6.5
(Millions)




             6.0

             5.5

             5.0

             4.5

             4.0

             3.5

             3.0
                                                                                         Potential Buyers Pool for Starter
                                                                                            Homes (26-year birth lag)
             2.5

             2.0
                                                 1.5
                                                       2.0


                                          1959

                                          1962

                                          1965

                                          1968

                                          1971

                                          1974

                                          1977

                                          1980

                                          1983

                                          1986

                                          1989

                                          1992

                                          1995

                                          1998

                                          2001
Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes
(includes legal immigration)                                                                              Buyers Pool for Trade

                                                                                     8.5




                                                                        (Millions)
                                                                                     7.5

                                                                                     6.5

                                                                                     5.5

                                                                                     4.5

                                                                                     3.5

                                                                                     2.5

                                                                                     1.5


                                                                                                  1979
                                                                                           1976



                                                                                                         1982

                                                                                                                 1985

                                                                                                                        1988
                                                                 2042
         2018

                2021

                       2024

                              2027

                                     2030

                                            2033

                                                   2036

                                                          2039




ncludes legal immigration)                                                                                      Potential Buyers Pool for Sta


                                                                                     8.5
                                                                        (Millions)




                                                                                     7.5

                                                                                     6.5

                                                                                     5.5

                                                                                     4.5

                                                                                     3.5

                                                                                     2.5
                                                                               2.5


                   2007                                                        1.5
     2001

            2004



                          2010

                                 2013

                                        2016

                                               2019

                                                      2022

                                                             2025




                                                                                     1959

                                                                                                   1962

                                                                                                                 1965

                                                                                                                           1968

                                                                                                                                   1971
for Starter Homes

                                                                                                                            Pool of Buyers & Housing




                                                                    Millions
                                                                                 7.00


                                                                                 6.00


                                                                                 5.00


                                                                                 4.00


                                                                                 3.00


                                                                                 2.00
                                                                                            1976
                                                                                                          1977
                                                                                                                    1978
                                                                                                                            1979
                                                                                                                                   1980
                                                                                                                                          1981




                                                                    7,500,000
                                                                    7,000,000
                                                                    6,500,000
                                                                    6,000,000
                                                                    5,500,000
                                                                    5,000,000
                                                                    4,500,000
                                                                    4,000,000
                                                                    3,500,000
                                                                    3,000,000
                                                                    2,500,000
                                                                    2,000,000
                                                                    1,500,000
                                                                                            1976

                                                                                                          1977

                                                                                                                    1978

                                                                                                                            1979

                                                                                                                                   1980

                                                                                                                                          1981
1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981
uyers Pool for Trade-up homes (All immigration. Legal and illegal)




                                        Potential Buyers Pool
                                         (43-year birth lag)
                          1997




                                                                                2018
            1991

                   1994



                                 2000

                                        2003

                                                2006

                                                        2009

                                                                 2012

                                                                         2015



                                                                                       2021

                                                                                              2024

                                                                                                     2027

                                                                                                            2030

                                                                                                                   2033

                                                                                                                          2036
                                                   Year



Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes (All immigration. Legal and illegal)




                                         Potential Buyers Pool for Starter
                                            Homes (26-year birth lag)
1981                                                 1981                                                                                                                        1974
1982                                                 1982
                                                                                                                                                                                 1977
1983                                                 1983
                                                                                                                                                                                 1980
1984                                                 1984

1985                                                 1985                                                                                                                        1983

1986                                                 1986                                                                                                                        1986
1987                                                 1987
                                                                                                                                                                                 1989
1988                                                 1988
                                                                                                                                                                                 1992
1989                                                 1989
                                                                                                                                                                                 1995
1990                                                 1990
                                                     1991                                                                                                                        1998
1991

1992                                                 1992                                                                                                                        2001

1993
                                                     1993




       Pool of home buyers and Housing Price index
                                                                                                                                                                                 2004
1994
                                                     1994
                                                                                                                                                                                 2007
1995
                                                     1995
                                                                                                                                       Potential Buyers Pool for Starter Homes




                                                     1996                                                                                                                        2010
1996
                                                            Pool of Buyers & Housing Price Index Yr/Yr % Increase adj. for inflation




                                                     1997                                                                                                                        2013
1997
                                                     1998                                                                                                                        2016
1998
                                                     1999
1999                                                                                                                                                                             2019
                                                     2000
2000
                                                                                                                                                                                 2022
                                                     2001
                                           1981

                                           1982

                                           1983

                                           1984

                                           1985
Pool of Buyers




                                           1986

                                           1987

                                           1988

                                           1989

                                           1990

                                           1991

                                           1992

                                           1993

                                           1994
Housing Price Index (Adj. for Inflation)




                                           1995

                                           1996

                                           1997

                                           1998

                                           1999

                                           2000
2036

2039
2022

          2025




          6.14%


          5.14%


          4.14%


          3.14%


          2.14%


          1.14%


          0.14%
   2001




                 275
                 250
                 225
                 200
                 175
                 150
                 125
                 100
                 75
                 50
       2001
2001
                                                                               Debt
You must double click the article to read it in its entirity. Othwerwise you
 will not see the whole thing. Once you double click, use your mouse to
                                                                               The financial problems I foresee in the future has everything to do with debt.

                                                                               Many people hear or read about financial disaster predictions and think that it can’t affect
                                                                               them because they don’t invest. This is a very big mistake if you have any debt. Debt is
                                                                               an investment. The theory of the coming crash is based on debt.

                                                                               The problem people don’t recognize is that they will not have the ability to pay off their
                                                                               debt when a crisis of this magnitude hits. One reason people don’t realize this fact is that
                         scroll through the article.




                                                                               they’ve never experienced a financial crisis in their lifetime. That’s exactly the problem
                                                                               with these types of crisis’; they only come every 85 years or so. That time frame is
                                                                               basically a lifetime so everyone only experiences it once and they are at all different age
                                                                               locations. There are a few who experience it twice. Once in childhood and once in
                                                                               elderhood. By the time a person reaches elderhood they can’t possibly fathom that it’s
                                                                               going to happen again. “Everything’s different now,” they state. But, everything isn’t
                                                                               different as research surely shows. In today’s society those people are the Silent
                                                                               Generation, b1925-1943.

                                                                               Another factor about debt that never comes to mind is that debt is precisely the reason the
                                                                               depression deepened after the 1929 crash. Many people think it was the stock market
                                                                               crash that caused the great depression. It wasn’t the spark it was only a catalyst. The
                                                                               reason the economy slipped into a depression is bank failures. The first failure didn’t
                                                                               happen until December of 1930 and things really weren’t that bad until then. However,
                                                                               when the Brooklyn, New York, Bank of the United States failed, in December of 1930 it
                                                                               started an unprecedented cascade of failures.

                                                                               In 1929 there were 24,970 commercial banks. In 1933 there were only 14,207. The
                                                                               number of banks in the Federal Reserve System fell from 8,707 in 1929 to 5,606 in 1933.
                                                                               27.5 percent failed. The non-member banks were the hardest hit. There were 16,263 in
                                                                               1929 and 8,601 by 1933. 45 percent failed.

                                                                               Between 1929 and 1933 there were 9,765 bank failures. Most occurring after December
                                                                               1930. But why did they fail?

                                                                               The answer is simple. Regular people couldn’t pay their mortgages because they were
                                                                               laid-off or their wages were cut. They couldn’t keep up and they were evicted as the
                                                                               banks took ownership of the homes. However, the banks couldn’t sell the properties
                                                                               because there were no buyers. The banks failed. That’s what caused the depression.

                                                                               What the history books like to tell you is that the brokerage houses were the cause
                                                                               because they were letting people borrow money to trade the market. These people would
                                                                               only have to put up 10 cents on the dollar. Then when the market crashed and the
                                                                               brokerage houses asked for the loans to be paid no one could pay so the brokerage houses
                                                                               liquidated their positions. And this is what the history books say caused the depression.
                                                                               What a bunch of crap.
only have to put up 10 cents on the dollar. Then when the market crashed and the
brokerage houses asked for the loans to be paid no one could pay so the brokerage houses
liquidated their positions. And this is what the history books say caused the depression.
What a bunch of crap.
h debt.

k that it can’t affect
any debt. Debt is


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