Gloucestershire - Assessment of Childcare Sufficiency

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					Assessment of Childcare

 Gloucestershire County Council

                         April 2007
                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007


1. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................2
        Aims and Objectives                                                                             2
2. METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................5
3. CHILDREN AND FAMILIES IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE ...................................7
        Child Population                                                                                7
        Birth Rates                                                                                     11
        Population Forecasts                                                                            11
        Housing                                                                                         12
        Migration                                                                                       13
        Ethnicity                                                                                       13
        Household Composition                                                                           14
4. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ..................................................................................16
        Household Incomes                                                                               16
        Working Tax Credits                                                                             17
        Female Working                                                                                  18
5. EARLY YEARS EDUCATION: SUPPLY........................................................20
6. EARLY YEARS EDUCATION: DEMAND ......................................................23
        Take-up of Places                                                                               23
        Demand from Parents for Early Education                                                         24
        Extended and Flexible Early Education                                                           25
7. CHILDCARE: SUPPLY ..................................................................................30
        Number of Childcare Places                                                                      30
        Geographical Spread                                                                             31
        Supply of Places by Age Range and Type                                                          33
        Daycare for Pre-School Children                                                                 33
        Daycare for Babies                                                                              35
        Sessional Care                                                                                  36
        Out of School Care                                                                              36
        Childcare for Disabled Children                                                                 40
        Childcare Costs                                                                                 40
        Payment Terms                                                                                   42
8. CHILDCARE: DEMAND.................................................................................44
        Vacancy Analysis                                                                                44
        Changing Demand for Childcare                                                                   45
        The views of Parents and Carers                                                                 48
        Barriers to Childcare Use                                                                       51
        Demand Analysis                                                                                 56
9. MARKET ANALYSIS: CONCLUSIONS .........................................................58
        Geographical Gaps                                                                               58
        Income Gaps                                                                                     59
        Specific Needs Gaps                                                                             61
        Time Gaps                                                                                       61
        Age Gaps                                                                                        62
10. RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................................64

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

1. Introduction
1.1   The Childcare Act 2006 fulfils the government’s commitment to give every child
      the best start in life and parents greater choice about how to balance work and
      family life. The Act places duties on English local authorities to improve
      outcomes for young children and reduce inequalities between them; to secure
      sufficient childcare to enable parents to work; and to provide information to
      parents about childcare and a wide range of other services that may be of
      benefit to them.

1.2   The Childcare Act gives local authorities a key role in shaping the childcare
      market in their area. They will, working with providers from the private,
      voluntary, independent and maintained sectors, look to create a strong,
      sustainable and diverse childcare market that meets the needs of parents.
      From April 2008, local authorities will have a duty to secure sufficient childcare
      for parents in their area. In preparation for this duty, a detailed assessment of
      the supply of, and demand for, childcare in their area is required.

Aims and Objectives

1.3   This report aims to provide Gloucestershire County Council with an
      assessment of sufficiency regarding the supply of childcare and parental
      demand for childcare to enable the Council to perform its Childcare Duty as
      outlined in the Children Act (2006).

1.4   The assessment is a measurement of the nature and extent of the need for,
      and supply of, childcare within each local area. It will help the Authority to
      identify where gaps in the market and - in consultation with partners - plan how
      to support the market to address them.

1.5   Sufficient childcare, in Section 6 of the 2006 Act, is defined as ‘sufficient to
      meet the requirements of parents in [the local authority’s] area who require
      childcare in order to enable them –

      a. To take up, or remain in, work, or

      b. To undertake education or training which could reasonably be expected to
         assist them to obtain work.

 1.6 In determining whether provision of childcare is sufficient a local authority:

       a. Must have regard to the needs of parents in their area for –

               •   the provision of childcare in respect of which the childcare element
                   of the working tax credit is payable, and

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

                 •   the provision of childcare which is suitable for disabled children

         b. May have regard to any childcare which they expect to be available
            outside their area.’

  1.7   At its core, the Assessment provides an analysis of supply and demand that
        highlights the following potential gaps in the local childcare market:

         •   Geographical Gaps: a lack of childcare places in an area (wards have
             been used in this assessment)

         •   Income Gaps: a shortage of affordable childcare

         •   Specific Needs Gaps: a shortage of childcare for disabled children, or
             children with other specific needs.

         •   Time Gaps: a shortage of childcare when it is required by parents

         •   Age Gaps: a shortage of care suited to children of a certain age group.

  1.8   In achieving this, information and specific data has been gathered relating to:

         •   Baseline socio-economic information including population profiles and
             population changes; deprivation; family incomes.

         •   Local labour market factors that may influence demand for specific
             childcare services;

         •   The levels and spread of current, and planned registered childcare
             provision across the Authority analysed by; type of care; age-group
             served; type of provision; and cost of care.

         •   Unmet demand for childcare services across the County evidenced from
             both statistical data using comparisons within the area and with statistical
             neighbours and through consultation with a range of individuals,
             organisations and agencies.

         •   The amount of un-registered but formal care (e.g. care for older children)
             available across Gloucestershire, by type, age group served,
             geographical spread and provider type.

1.9     Conclusions from the above have been drafted relating to:

         •   The current level of each type of care (number of places and hours
             offered whether registered or unregistered) being provided;

         •   The needs of lower income families and, in particular, the availability of
             childcare eligible for tax credits;

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                    Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      •   The requirements of parents of all children aged up to 14 and up to 18 for
          disabled children;

      •   The views of parents, children, carers, providers, community groups and

      •   Parents’ and carers’ demand for childcare to enable them to work if they
          choose, including the nature of the labour market;

      •   Issues relating to localised under-supply or inappropriate pattern and
          types of childcare and early years education provision.

1.10 All sources of data and dates of data collection have been acknowledged
     throughout this report. Wherever possible data was current between December
     2006 and February 2007 or the most recently available information has been

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

2. Methodology
2.1   Geographical areas for this study have been at County (1), District (6) and
      Extended Services Area (41). The Extended Services areas have been
      analysed by taking data at output area and lower-level super output area
      (LSOA) and transposed to the Extended Services areas. A number of
      Extended Services areas have boundaries that cross LSOA areas therefore
      data presented at LSOA level has been proportioned across the two Extended
      Service areas. This may result in some margins of error in a number of data
      sets, however, we are confident that the margins are small and will not have a
      significant impact on data analysis.

2.2   Where new data has been collected, it has been assigned to Extended Service
      areas by postcode using a look-up list provided by Maiden. A map of the
      Extended Services area with the key to areas is set out in Figure 1.

2.3   The age ranges, here and throughout the assessment are age 2 and under;
      aged 3 and 4; ages 4,6 and 7; ages 8,9 and 10; ages 11,12,13 and 14; and, for
      disabled children only, 15, 16 and 17. In examination of specific data and
      dependent of the subject matter, age groups have in some cases been
      combined (eg. children 0 to 4 representing all pre-school children).

2.4   During January and February 2007, a consultation exercise took place to
      establish the views of parents and carers in Gloucestershire regarding
      childcare. Through a mixture of face-to-face interviews, focus groups and
      structured questionnaires, the views of parents (fathers, mothers and other
      carers in loco parentis) as to the availability and accessibility of childcare were
      sought. Consultation took place through existing structures such as parent and
      toddler groups; Children’s Centres; schools; pre-schools; health clinics and
      other locations where parents were already meeting.

2.5   A total of 353 parents in 43 groups across the County were interviewed
      individually. To ensure a representative sample, monitoring information was
      collected about all those who participated. A summary of this data is included
      as an appendix.

2.6   Childcare providers were engaged through a series of 8 consultation events
      focused on the extended entitlement to early years services. For those not
      delivering early years education, a telephone survey was carried out in
      February 2007. In total 307 registered childcare providers were consulted as
      part of the assessment representing a 23% sample, representative across
      provision types and geographically across the County.

                                              Page 5
Figure 1: Extended Services Areas

 Ref   Area
 1     Bartongate&Finlay
 2     Beacon Stow
 3     Bisley & Eastcombe
 4     Brockworth
 5     Cainscross
 6     Cam & Dursley
 7     Cam & Dursley Outreach
 8     Charlton Kings
 9     Churchdown & Innsworth
 10    Cinderford
 11    Cirencester
 12    Cleeve Catchment
 13    Coleford
 14    ConeyHill&Robinswood
 15    Eastcombe
 16    Elmbridge & Longlevens
 17    Gardeners Lane
 18    Hesters Way
 19    Kingsholm
 20    Leckhampton
 21    Linden
 22    Lydney
 23    Lydney Outreach
 24    Mitcheldean & Drybrook
 25    Nailsworth
 26    Newent Central
 27    Northleach
 28    Northleach Outreach Fairford Area
 29    Oakley
 30    Podsmead
 31    Quedgeley & Hardwicke Area
 32    Rowanfield
 33    Stonehouse
 34    Stow Outreach Chipping Campden
 35    Stroud Central
 36    Tetbury
 37    Tewkesbury Northway
 38    Tewkesbury Town Priors Park
 39    Up Hatherley & Warden Hill
 40    Winchcombe
 41    Wotton
3. Children and Families in Gloucestershire
3.1    In the planning of early education and childcare, a detailed analysis of trends
       relating to current and future child population is crucial in establishing current
       levels of supply and ensuring that neither over, nor under-capacity of supply
       takes place in the future.

3.2    There is a considerable amount of information available regarding the
       population and population trends published by Gloucestershire County Council1
       and available on the Maiden2 website. This section provides a brief summary of
       the specific issues and trends that will impact on demand for childcare.

Child Population

3.3    Between 2001 and 2005, estimates show that the population of children aged 0
       to 14 (and to 17 for disabled children) fell by -1%. Gloucester showed the
       highest fall with a decline of 4% in the child population, while Cotswold showed
       a rise of 0.8%. Child population in the Forest of Dean fell by –2%, with
       Tewsbury, Cheltenham and Stroud showing only a small variation.

Figure 2: Change in Population of Children and Young People 2001-2005

  Shaping the Future for Children and Young People in Gloucestershire Produced by the Gloucestershire County
Council Environment Directorate Research Team, 2005.
                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

3.4       Within Extended Services Areas, the range of change was between a rise in
          population of 14% in Tewkesbury Northway to a fall of 9% in the adjacent
          Tewkesbury Town Priors Park area (details of individual populations for
          Extended Areas are in Area Profiles in Appendix 1) as shown in Figure 2.

3.5       When set against the population as a whole, the proportion of children in an
          area can indicate where there may be high demand for childcare services. This
          is shown in Figure 3. In Gloucestershire as a whole, children and young people
          age 0 to 14 (and to 17 with a disability) make up 19% of the population.
          Gloucester has the highest concentration of children at 21.3% of the
          population, while Cheltenham has the lowest at 17.7%.

Figure 3: Proportion of children in the population (2005)

0 to 4 year olds

3.6       Analyses of National Census data together with Office of National Statistics
          mid-year estimates show that the decline of 0-4 year olds is much more
          marked than that of all children and young people. This is particularly
          influenced by the fall in live births in recent years. The 0-4 year old population
          fell by 1,434 children in the County over the two-year period 2001 to 2003. Both
          the number and proportion of young children also fell across all districts
          between 2001 and 2003. The Forest of Dean and Cotswold districts saw the
          largest percentage decreases at –7.4% and –6.7% respectively3.

    Gloucestershire County Council Environment Directorate Research Team (2005)

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

5 to 10 year olds

3.7       Although the numbers and proportion of 5-10 year olds has declined across
          Gloucestershire between 2001 and 2003, in a similar trend to the 0-4 year old
          population, the percentage decline is less marked and not consistent across all
          districts with a decline of just 546 children aged 5-10 across the County, while
          the Cotswold and Forest of Dean districts have seen a rise of 195 and 17
          children respectively.

3.8       The actual numbers of young children in the local community will fluctuate over
          time. It has been well reported that the location of children aged 5-10 has been
          influenced to a certain extent by accessibility to primary schools. With the
          publication of league tables and Ofsted inspection reports and parental
          preference, parents are able to exercise more control over their child’s
          education and demand high standards. Some parents move house purely to
          fall in what is deemed to be a particular school’s catchment area. This impacts
          on demand for early years education in particular, as parents are often keen to
          enable their children to attend pre-school groups that naturally feed their
          preferred primary school.

11 to 14 year olds

3.9       Population change among 11-14 year olds has been distinctly different to that
          of the under 11s during recent years. Both the number and proportion of 11-16
          year olds has not only increased at the County level, but also across districts
          too. Cheltenham and Tewkesbury districts have seen above County average
          increases of 4.6% and 4.1% respectively. Overall the County saw an increase
          of 1,415 young people aged 11-16 between 2001 and 2003.

Disabled Children

3.10 With childcare needing to meet the needs of disabled children up to the age of
     17, it is useful to be able to quantify this group both in relation to the overall
     population aged 0 to 15, and specifically in the15 to 17 age group. Defining the
     exact number of children with disabilities and special needs is difficult as data
     is generally collected only about those with more severe difficulties or
     disabilities that require additional support.

3.11 In 2007, there were 2,6094 children identified as having Statements of Special
     Educational Need in Gloucestershire or as being open to the Children and
     Young People with Disabilities team. This represents 2.4% of the population of
     all children. National data5 suggests that 18% of all children and young people
     have some mild disability.

    EMS extract: SEN Statements as at 09/02/07 and ERIC
    General Household Surveys 1990-1996, 1998, 2000, Office for National Statistics

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

3.12 The total number of children within the 0 to 14 cohort that have been
     considered in the Childcare Sufficiency Assessment is taken to be as per the
     definition for the Disability Discrimination Act: “A child or young person with ....
     a physical or mental impairment which has a substantial and long-term adverse
     affect on their ability to perform a range of day to day activities that are
     considered normal without additional assistance from others and, or
     environmental adaption”. Therefore the lower figure of those having statements
     of need or recognised as requiring support from the Children and Young
     People with Disabilities team has been used.


3.13 For the purposes of this study, we have taken the population of children aged 0
     to 14 as being 104,146. An additional 497 children aged 15, 16 and 17 years
     with special need and disabilities provide a total cohort to the Assessment of
     104,643 children and young people.

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                                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Birth Rates

3.14 One of the major drivers of population change, is birth rates. They also have an
     immediate impact of the demand for some childcare services.

3.15 Between 1991 and 2001 the number of children being born each year in
     Gloucestershire fell from 6,789 to 5,946, a drop of -12.5%. While rates rose
     significantly in 2003, the trend is still downwards. By district, Cheltenham has
     experienced the largest decline in births (-16%), while Cotswold district has
     shown the lowest decline (-8%).

Figure 4: Live Births in Gloucestershire by District 1991 to 20056


             1,400                                                                                                         Cotswold

                                                                                                                           Forest of
             1,000                                                                                                         Dean

               800                                                                                                         Gloucester


               200                                                                                                         Tewkesbury












































Population Forecasts

3.16 Gloucestershire, being largely rural in nature, has an increasingly ageing
     population, being popular for retirement, while young people experience a
     strong pull away from the County to more urban localities. It has been widely
     reported that there has been a recent downward trend in birth rates and an
     increase in life expectancy, adding to this affect.

3.17 Trends in the number of 0-19 year olds between 1991 and 2006 show little
     significant change with the exception of Gloucester. From 2006 the numbers of
     0-19 year olds fall away, with the exception of Gloucester, which sees a rise
     from 2016. Cotswold and Cheltenham districts see the largest percentage
     decreases between 2001 and 2026, at -23.3% and –22.6%, while Gloucester
     only decreases by –3.3%. By 2026 Gloucester is expected to have
     approximately 28,300 people aged 0-19, some 6,300 more than Stroud.

    Gloucestershire Population Monitor (2005) Source: Vital Statistics, Office for National Statistics

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                          Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 5: Population Change 1991 to 20267

3.18 For younger children, who take up the majority of childcare places, between
     1991 and 2001 there was a downward trend in numbers, which is projected to
     continue to at least 2011. In most cases from 2016 the numbers of children
     aged 0-4 do appear to plateau, with the exception of Cheltenham which
     continues to fall, while Gloucester sees a rise from 2011 to 2021. Gloucester is
     the only district to see a percentage rise in the number of 0-4 year olds
     between 2001 and 2026 at 2.3%. The largest percentage decrease across the
     same period can be seen in the Cotswold and Cheltenham districts at –22.4%
     and –19.7%.


3.19 The development of significant quantities of housing can have a big impact on
     the demand for childcare, dependent on the type of housing being developed.
     The Gloucestershire Structure Plan makes proposals for about 2,400 (net)
     dwellings to be built in the County each year from 2005 to 2016. Amongst the
     districts, housing provision is planned to be distributed as follows:

         Cheltenham                  6,050 dwellings
         Cotswold                    4,200 dwellings
         Forest of Dean              5,000 dwellings
         Gloucester                  10,200 dwellings
         Stroud                      6,750 dwellings
         Tewkesbury                  6,450 dwellings

3.20 Set in context, new housing represents a 16% increase over current stocks
     over a ten-year period, but the annual increase is only 1%. Planned new
     housing development is unlikely to impact on demand for childcare overall, in
     Gloucestershire as changing household dynamics mean that average

 ONS Mid-year Estimates 1991-2003 and Trend-Based Population Projections produced by the Environment
Research Team (2005)

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      occupancy in housing is dropping leading to more houses in demand for the
      same, or less people. However, consultation with providers and parents
      suggests that even small-scale developments (in Dursley, for example) can
      have an impact on demand for childcare at a very local level.


3.21 Both inward and outward flows of migrants to and from Gloucestershire have
     been on an upward trend since early 1990s. Average net inflow between 1991
     and 2005 was around 2,390 per annum, accounting for most of the population

3.22 During the year to mid-2005, there were approximately 20,010 in-migrants,
     compared with 18,160 out-migrants. The largest flows, both in and out, were
     with the rest of the South West of England. The largest net inflows of people
     were from the South East region and London.

3.23 The majority of migrant population was of working age together with children
     under 15 years of age (moving with their parents). The county attracted a net
     inflow of an average of 1,152 people aged 30-44 into the county each year.
     This compares to a loss of approximately 318 young people aged 15-29 per
     year through migration.

3.24 International migration into Gloucestershire has been substantial in recent
     years, particularly from the new member countries of the EU. However, there is
     considerable difficulty in achieving accurate estimates of the numbers involved.
     It is not possible to confirm at present whether the majority of the 11,373
     migrants who have registered for work in Gloucestershire since 2003 are still
     resident in the county or whether many have returned home, having been
     working on a short-term or temporary basis. Nor is it possible to determine
     whether records of registration for work provide a reasonable basis for
     estimating total inward international migration. Further work is needed to
     establish whether the impact of international migration upon the size and
     nature of the population of Gloucestershire is significant and permanent.


3.25 Specific data regarding the ethnicity of children is not available but an analysis
     of ethnicity is available in the County Council publication: Ethnicity in
     Gloucestershire: What the Census Tells Us.

3.26 At the time of the Census around 95% of Gloucestershire’s population
     described themselves as “White British” compared to 87% in England as a
     whole. Of the remaining people, 2.8% were from a BME group and 2.4% were
     from a White Minority (White Irish or White “Other”) group. Just over half of
     Gloucestershire’s BME residents were born in the UK.

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                           Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

3.27 The largest individual BME groups in Gloucestershire were Indian (3,730),
     Black Caribbean (2,440) and Mixed Race White & Black Caribbean (2,210).
     “White Other” formed the largest ethnic minority group overall (9,010).

3.28 Overall, the proportion of Gloucestershire’s population from a BME group
     increased from 1.84% in 1991 to 2.84% in 2001. England & Wales as a whole
     increased from 5.92% to 8.69% over this period. The Census does not suggest
     that migration is a key driver of ethnic change in the County. It should be borne
     in mind though that the Census took place before the Accession of Eastern
     European countries to the EU and so these effects were not measured.

3.29 Analysis of ethnicity by Extended Services Areas shows that the majority of the
     black and minority ethnic (BME) population in Gloucestershire is concentrated
     in one area. Bartongate & Finlay area has a BME population of over 20%. Of
     the other 40 Extended Services areas, none have a BME population higher
     than 8%, and only three other areas have more than 5% BME residents.

3.30 Given a high ethnic minority population in specific areas of the County, the
     cultural and language needs of children need to be given consideration in
     planning and in the support available to childcare providers if their services are
     to be inclusive.

Household Composition

3.31 Of all the households in Gloucestershire where dependent children live, 65%
     are headed by a married couple (60% in England). A further 12% are headed
     by a cohabiting couple (11% in England) and 18% are headed by a lone parent
     (22% in England). Across the County there are not significant differences in
     household composition (Figure 6), although the proportion of lone parents is
     higher in Gloucester and Cheltenham than in the rest of the County.

3.32 By Extended Services areas, it is clear that while on the face of it,
     Gloucestershire household structures are more traditional in some areas, the
     proportion of lone parents is significantly higher. In the Bartongate & Finlay
     area of Gloucester, 33% of children live in households headed by a lone
     parent. Hesters Way (Cheltenham) and Kingsholm (Gloucester) have similarly
     high levels. In contrast, in Northleach (Cotswold) and in the Cam & Dursley
     Outreach area (Stroud), less than 11% of children live with lone parents.

3.33 There are considerable implications for the planning of childcare services within
     these statistics with lone parents often facing the greatest need for childcare if
     they are to be able to access work and be fully economically active. The recent
     DWP report8 into childcare and employment identified clearly that lone parent

 Department for Work & Pensions. Childcare use and mothers’ employment: a review of British data sources.
Working Paper 16. 2004

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

     families were much more likely to use childcare than two-parent families where
     both parents work.

3.34 On average, lone parents use childcare for 10 hours per week, as opposed to 5
     hours for a working couple. For school aged children, the difference is even
     more marked suggesting that it is easier for parents in couples to organise
     work around school hours. As many parents also rely on informal care provided
     by relatives (predominantly grandparents), couples have a larger pool of
     grandparents to choose from, leaving lone parents with an increased need for
     formal care arrangements.

Figure 6: Composition of households with dependent children (2001)

                          0%     10%     20%     30%     40%     50%    60%     70%      80%


            Co tswo ld
                                                                                               Lo ne P arent
                                                                                               Ho useho lds

       Fo rest o f Dean                                                                        M arried
                                                                                               Ho useho lds

           Glo ucester                                                                         Co habiting
                                                                                               Ho useho lds

               Stro ud
                                                                                               Ho useho lds


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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

4. Economic Activity
4.1       In establishing childcare sufficiency, childcare must be sufficient to support
          parents to take-up, or remain in work, or to undertake training which could
          reasonably be expected to assist them to obtain work. In assessing current and
          future demand for childcare, an examination of local economic conditions –
          including levels of economic activity in families, is crucial.

Household Incomes

4.2       The average income across all households in Gloucestershire in 20029 was
          £514 per week. This was 9% below the average income in England (£567).
          There were differences between areas, with Tewkesbury having the highest
          average income at £552 and Gloucester the lowest at £462.

4.3       While average income levels are lower than national averages, the proportion
          of people on very low incomes is small. On average, 14% of all people in
          England are classified as suffering from income deprivation10. In
          Gloucestershire, only 9% of people fall into this category, with a range by
          district of 6% in Cotswold to 13% in Gloucester.

Figure 7: Proportion of people suffering from Income Deprivation (2004)

    ONS March Household Income Estimates 2002
    Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004

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                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

4.4    With household incomes lower than average, but with fewer than average
       people living in extreme poverty, it is likely that a large proportion of
       Gloucestershire residents have just-below-average incomes.

Working Tax Credits

4.5    An estimation of low-income households (where parents are working) can be
       made using Inland Revenue data for tax credits. There are two tax credits
       which eligibility for, and take-up can indicate income levels – the Childcare Tax
       Credit and the Working Tax Credit. Critically, the Childcare Sufficiency
       Assessment will need to focus on the number of childcare places required in
       respect of which the childcare element of the Working Tax Credit may be

4.6    Child Tax Credit (CTC) provides support to families for the children (up to the
       31 August after their 16th birthdays) and the "qualifying" young people for
       which they are responsible. It is paid in addition to Child Benefit (CB) and to
       families with incomes under the threshold of around £55,000 for a family with
       two working parents.

4.7    Working Tax Credit (WTC) is additional to CTC for families with children. It tops
       up the earnings of such families on low or moderate incomes, and includes an
       element equal to 80% of eligible childcare costs. A family’s entitlement to CTC
       and WTC depends on its income. In general, households with a total net
       income of less than £13,910 a year will receive maximum tax credits while
       families with incomes of up to £50,000 per annum will receive some benefit.

Figure 8: Children in receipt of Childcare Tax Credit by District

            District                               Number of Children     % of all eligible children

            Cheltenham                                   22,883                        68%
            Cotswold                                     16,713                        62%
            Forest of Dean                               17,733                        77%
            Gloucester                                   26,818                        85%
            Stroud                                       24,245                        72%
            Tewkesbury                                   16,473                        74%
            Gloucestershire                              124,865                       73%

4.8    In Gloucestershire, data from Inland Revenue for 2005-200611 showed that
       Child Tax Credits (or equivalent paid in benefits – Income Support or Job
       Seekers Allowance - to those parents not in work) were received on behalf of
       125,000 eligible children. This equates to approximately 73% of all children and
       young people in the County.

 Inland Revenue Child Tax Credit Statistics Finalised 2005-06 awardsSmall area analysis at Lower Layer Super
Output Area and Data Zone level August 2005 (Experimental Statistics)

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                              Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

4.9    By Extended Services areas, the range of children in receipt of CTC is from
       95% of children in Tewsbury Northway, to 48% in Leckhampton. The proportion
       of children not in receipt of CTC indicates where family incomes are likely to be
       higher than the £55,000 threshold.

4.10 For the Working Tax Credit, 23% of children in the County live in households
     where this is being claimed. Of these, 17% of children are living in lone parent
     households. With 20% of children living in households where no-one works, the
     number of children who live in higher-income households in Gloucestershire is
     therefore likely to be on average, only 22% of the population. Broad income
     bands based on tax and benefits information12 are shown for the districts in
     Figure 9.

Figure 9: Incomes of Families with Dependent Children13

                          0         2000       4000      6000       8000      10000

                                                                                        Children in Out
                                                                                        of Work

                                                                                        Children in
                                                                                        Lower Income
         Forest of Dean                                                                 Households

                                                                                        Children in
             Gloucester                                                                 Income Working

                 Stroud                                                                 Children in High
                                                                                        Income Working


4.11 By Extended Services areas, there are clear correlations between both the
     number of non-working families and low earners, and the income deprivation
     data in Figure 7, and the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). These
     factors are detailed in the Area Analysis in Appendix 1.

Female Working

4.12 Research consistently shows that women are the main carers within families,
     and furthermore, they take responsibility for childcare. The proportion of

  Inland Revenue 2005-06
  High incomes taken as those ineligible for CTC. Moderate incomes: those above family element of WTC, low
incomes: families in work in receipt of full WTC.

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

     working women within the population is therefore an important indicator for
     childcare demand.

Figure 10: Female Economic Activity

                          Working     Working        Self
     District                                               Unemployed after home     Other
                          Full Time   Part Time    Employed
                                                                        & family

     Cheltenham              32%         20%           5%           2%          10%   32%
     Cotswold                28%         22%           9%           2%          12%   28%
     Forest of Dean          27%         23%           6%           2%          12%   30%
     Gloucester              32%         25%           3%           3%          11%   27%
     Stroud                  28%         24%           7%           2%          11%   28%
     Tewkesbury              32%         23%           6%           2%          11%   28%

4.13 In Gloucestershire as a whole, 29% of women work full-time (30% in England)
     and 23% work part-time (23% in England). 6% of women are self-employed
     (4% in England) which means that in total, 58% of women in Gloucestershire
     work as opposed to just 55% in England.

4.14 The impact on childcare demand may be variable in these figures, as despite a
     higher than average proportion of working women, demand may be lower as
     women work around their children through part-time or self-employed work.

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

5. Early Years Education: Supply
5.1       A mix of statutory, voluntary and private settings provide early years education
          for 3 and 4 year old children in Gloucestershire. In 2006 there were 403
          providers of early education as set out in Figure 11.

Figure 11: Number of Registered Early Years Education Providers

                                            Day    Early Years Independent        Pre-School
            District       Childminders                                                        Nursery
                                          Nurseries Centres      Schools          Playgroups

      Cheltenham                 0           27           4            7                 32      1
      Cotswold                   3           18           2            4                 34      2
      Forest of Dean             3           15           6            2                 41      2
      Gloucester                 2           21           7            1                 36      0
      Stroud                     5           14           4            3                 49      3
      Tewkesbury                 7           14           3            1                 26      3
      Gloucestershire           20           109          26           18                218     11

5.2       Together they provided a total of 11,896 registered childcare places14 which
          could be available for 3 and 4 year old children. This is set against a population
          of 13,328 children aged 3 and 4 years of age. However, the situation is more
          complicated, as depending on the type of provision, more or fewer places than
          are registered are available.

5.3       In day nurseries, registered places are generally available for children aged 0
          to 4. The survey of childcare providers undertaken during January 2007 found
          that on average, 53% of all registered places with full daycare providers were
          being taken up by 3 and 4 years olds to receive early education, with 46%
          being taken up sessionally. This means that there were 4,833 places in day

5.4       In sessional care settings, of the 201 active pre-schools, 73 offer 2 sessions
          per day which means that there are 6,588 sessional places. Maintained early
          years centres all offer two sessions per day which effectively doubles the 1,168
          registered places to 2,336. Independent schools, childminders and private
          nursery schools add 1,538 sessional places.

5.5       In total, we can estimate that there are 15,295 early years places available to 3
          and 4 year old children in Gloucestershire. This is greater than the population
          of children indicating a surplus of provision. However, there is an uneven
          distribution of places across the County as shown in Figures 12 and 13.

     Gloucestershire Children’s Information Service January 2007

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                            Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 12: Distribution of Sessional Early Years Places by District and Type
                                                                                      Private     Total
                                    Day     Early Years Independent Pre-School
District          Childminders                                                        Nursery   Sessional
                                  Nurseries  Centres      Schools   Playgroups
                                                                                      Schools    Places
Cheltenham             0            1218         568          224           1242        42        3364
Cotswold               8             869         164          126           883        114        2212
Forest of Dean        22             641         344           80           1086       130        2303
Gloucester            16            1054         710           60           1271        0         3111
Stroud                40             593         272          156           1286        84        2471
Tewkesbury            90             458         278            0           820        188        1834
Gloucestershire       176           4833         2336         646           6588       558       15295

5.6        Compared with the population of 3 and 4 year olds, Stroud, Tewkesbury and
           Gloucester only just have enough provision to meet demand with between 102
           and 108 places for every 100 children in the population. At Extended Services
           area level, Figure 13 highlights those areas where there are fewer places than
           children in the population. Northleach (Cotswold) has just 44 places for every
           100 children, compared with Kingsholm (Gloucester / Tewkesbury) which has
           279 places per 100 children.

Figure 13: Number of Sessional EYE places per 100 children aged 3 and 4

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                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

5.7      The distances travelled by parents to use early education varies by type of
         care, and by area. Parents living in Cotswold travel the furthest to use services
         – an average of 6.3km, while parents in Cheltenham use care closer to home.
         By type, maintained Early Years Centres attract the most local clientele, closely
         followed by playgroups.

Figure 14: Distances travelled by users of pre-school daycare in

                                                                      Early                         Private
                               All                       Day                 Independent
LA Name                               Childminders                    Years              Playgroups Nursery
                            Providers                  Nurseries               Schools
                                                                     Centres                        Schools

Cheltenham                     2.7          N/A            3.1          1.2          5.7          1.2        1.0
Cotswold                       6.3          9.1            6.4          1.8          7.5          2.7        5.1
Forest of Dean                 4.0          5.3            4.4          2.0          7.4          1.8        3.5
Gloucester                     3.2          4.1            3.5          1.1          6.3          1.2        N/A
Stroud                         4.2          8.9            3.1          1.3          8.6          2.6        1.6
Tewkesbury                     2.9          5.4            4.3          1.7         N/A           2.0        2.5
Gloucestershire                3.9          5.5            4.1          1.5          5.9          1.9        2.3

5.8      The data presented in Figure 14 highlights a number of potential issues. Firstly,
         in urban areas where similar statistics have been analysed, average distances
         travelled are usually less than 2km rather than the 4km found in
         Gloucestershire. While this reflects the rural nature of much of the County, it
         also suggests that childcare, or a choice of childcare and early education, will
         be limited for those families without transport in rural areas.

   By taking the postcode of service users and mapping these against the postcode of service location, the distances
travelled by users can be calculated using GIS mapping. While this information is not available for all settings and
users, Nursery Education Funding data provides information regarding 3 and 4 year olds using day nurseries and

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

6. Early Years Education: Demand
Take-up of Places

6.1     Whilst early education is voluntary, the take-up of places in early years settings
        provides some indication of demand. For day nurseries - where the number of
        places allocated for early education can be flexible (within the overall registered
        numbers) – demand may increase supply. For pre-schools and maintained
        settings the number of early education places on offer is generally limited to the
        registered / allocated numbers. On average, each registered place with
        providers is used by 1.8 children.

Figure 15: Vacancies in Registered Early Years Education Settings by type
                                               % of FT places      % of PT places vacant   Total FTE
                                              vacant for 3 & 4's     for 3 & 4's (FTE)     Vacancies
      Childminder                                    7%                     0%                7%
      Day Nursery                                    5%                     6%               12%
      EY Centre                                      0%                     2%                2%
      Independent School                             13%                    6%               19%
      Pre-School Playgroup                           3%                     3%                6%
      Private Nursery School                         2%                     7%                9%

6.2     A survey of early years providers in January 2007 found that on average, 8% of
        all early education places in Gloucestershire were vacant, although a large
        number of these were part-time vacancies – odd sessions – that may not fit in
        with demand. The number of full-time vacancies is estimated to be below 4% of
        available sessional places.

6.3     This data indicates a situation in Gloucestershire where there is very little spare
        capacity for early years places, and in many areas it is likely that parents find it
        difficult to access provision to take up their full entitlement to 5 sessions per

6.4     Analysis of early education funding data (Figure 15), shows that in the Summer
        Term 2006, 10,948 three and four year olds were receiving early education
        funding in Gloucestershire, but on average, they only were able to take up 4
        sessions per week. The number of sessions available to children drops through
        the year indicating a lack of supply, when in usual circumstances, parents
        would be looking to increase the number of sessions attended by children as
        they get older.

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                         Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 16: Early Years Education Funding Data
                                                                           Average number
                                                      Number of
                  Term                                                     of Sessions per
                  Autumn Term                               7357                 4.3
                  Spring Term                               9371                 4.1
                  Summer Term                            10948                   4.0

Demand from Parents for Early Education

6.5   Consultation in January and February 2007 took place with the parents of 436
      children aged 3 and 4 years of age. In general, parents were aware of what
      early years provision was available locally (although they often weren’t aware
      of the details of their free entitlement), and said that they found out about it by
      word of mouth. Parents using funded early education had in general, a high
      opinion of the quality of service that was being provided and accepted the
      benefits of early education for their children to be able to play, socialise and
      learn together.

6.6   Although free preschool sessions are available from the age of 3, some parents
      see the need for the child to be in such an environment, away from them, with
      structured play and social interaction much earlier - as early as two, but most
      often from two and a half onwards. However, this service is not available
      unless they can afford private nursery charges, or if admissions policies don't
      allow, or if there is limited availability. Some parents are also disgruntled that
      there isn't always free provision for the rising 4’s, with rationing of sessions in
      many areas. A lack of choice in rural areas compounds this problem.

6.7   A common comment from parents (mainly mothers) was that pre-school
      sessions aren't long enough to allow them to take on a meaningful job, so if
      they wanted to pursue a career, they are forced to consider day nurseries, or
      childminders, the cost of which they feel doesn't make it worthwhile returning to

              The cost of 2 children in nursery makes it pointless returning to work.
                                       Parent - Forest of Dean, Coleford
          More local provision and more flexible hours. It is too expensive to make it worth
                                going back to work part - time
                                       Parent - Cotswold,     Northleach

6.8   Many mums who would like to carry on working are therefore forced to stay at
      home, or take on low paid work that has more limited and flexible hours. Data
      from parental surveys reinforces this, with 58% of mothers of children aged 3
      and 4 working compared with 92% of fathers. The type of work is also
      significant with 85% of mothers working part-time. For women whose youngest
      child is of at least school age, the proportion of women in work along with full-
      time employment, rates are far higher.

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

          "I use 5 sessions at the playgroup here. There are plenty of places at the moment
                               because the birth rates are low this year".
         "I've heard there is going to be an extension of hours. Personally I would be happy
                  with 3 hour sessions - possibly longer sessions for the older ones".
                            Parents - Cotswold, Stow Outreach Chipping Campden

Extended and Flexible Early Education

6.9   By 2010 all 3 and 4 year olds will be entitled to 15 hours of free early learning
      and care each week for 38 weeks of the year (an increase of 2.5 hours from
      the current position). The entitlement will also become more flexible, which
      means families facing difficult choices about balancing work and home life will
      be able to use their entitlement to help make those decisions. In delivering this
      offer in Gloucestershire, consultation with providers highlighted a number of

6.10 In general, the extension of entitlement from 12 ½ hours to 15 hours, whilst
     presenting some organisational issues for some providers, would seem to be
     achievable by most. Day nurseries and independent schools will be able to
     extend entitlement fairly seamlessly and most see the extension positively.
     Sessional pre-school providers have a variety of individual problems relating
     mainly to the timings of sessions and staffing. With most sessional providers
     currently fitting in their hours with the school day (ie. a morning session from
     9am to 11.30am followed by a session from 12.30pm to 3pm) the extension will
     require many providers to offer two, three hour sessions each day between
     9am and the end of the school day between 3pm and 3.30pm. Offering staff a
     break between sessions is an issue for some providers that can be solved with
     increased staffing, but there are concerns that the cost of this will not be met by
     the additional 2 ½ hours of funding per week. Maintained Early Years Centres
     will face similar problems but are concerned that no additional funding will be
     made available to cover costs as the local authority directly funds them.

6.11 Day nurseries already offer flexible early education integrated with care to
     many children. The flexibility for parents to use their entitlement over three
     days however, may be possible in principal, but in practice, day nurseries may
     not be willing to accept children for three free 5 hour sessions per week.
     Currently, many nurseries charge either for a half-day (5 hours - 8am to 1pm or
     1pm to 6pm) or a full day (8am to 6pm). Parents of children receiving 2 ½
     hours of free early education currently have to pay for the additional 2 ½ hours
     of care. Whilst 5 hours of free early education is deliverable by the sector in
     half-day chunks, many providers say that they will not be able to afford to
     deliver this as they will lose out on the higher rate for childcare that they
     currently charge for the additional hours. Parents wanting a 5 hour free
     entitlement to match school hours (9am to 3pm) at a day nursery will in most
     cases be required to pay for a whole day with 5 hours of childcare charged at

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      market rates (there is some evidence of this being a problem with the existing

        For one parent with a household income £1751-£2750, the free early years places are
        the only way she can afford 2 half days of nursery care for her 3 and a half year old ie
        10 hours of entitlement. She is aware that the remaining 2.5 hours of entitlement goes
          unused, but she can’t afford to pay for the balancing 2.5 hours to cover a complete
          session (as defined by the Nursery rules). If the whole 15 hours for 3 Day Nursery
           sessions was covered in the scheme, she would gladly put her son in for the extra
                                       Tewkesbury Town Priors Park

6.12 Day nurseries are also concerned about being required to offer flexible
     sessions with children ‘dropping-in’ and ‘dropping-out’ throughout the day.
     Some are concerned that this will conflict with the curriculum requirements of
     the Foundation Stage. Across all sectors there was a feeling that flexibility
     could only go so far before it affected the quality of early education being

6.13 Many pre-schools will continue to meet demand from parents by offering an
     extended entitlement for 15 hours per week. However, most pre-schools say
     that they will find offering a flexible entitlement very challenging. For pre-
     schools to be able to offer up to 5 hours per day will require them to register for
     full-daycare delivery. Many will be unable to achieve this due to restrictions on
     premises. Pre-schools based in village halls, community centres and suchlike
     will often find it impossible to meet the National Minimum Standards for
     Daycare with sufficient toilets, cooking areas or separation of areas. For some,
     there may not be sufficient space in buildings or there may be restrictions on
     premises that are joint-use.

6.14 Even where their premises will allow registration, many say that they will find it
     difficult to staff. A flexible entitlement requires some flexibility in the workforce.
     Many pre-schools have long-serving staff and / or long-standing traditions that
     make change of this magnitude very taxing. Solutions may include having a
     centralised bank of flexible staff, but this may prove difficult to maintain and
     costly to implement.

6.15 What pre-schools fear most, is that their inability to deliver early education
     flexibly will have a negative effect on their sustainability as parents use their
     flexible entitlement elsewhere. There are also concerns from pre-schools that
     the governance structures currently in place are not fit-for-purpose should they
     expand their role, increase their services and particularly should they become
     full daycare providers where management responsibilities are considerable.

6.16 Most pre-schools are unincorporated associations run by volunteers. Many
     struggle to recruit volunteer managers and the quality of management can be
     highly variable. Liability is becoming an increasing concern as settings attract

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

     more regulation and increase the scope of operations. Many settings feel that
     they have already outgrown their current governance structure, but have no
     idea how they can change. One option may be to take a federal approach,
     sharing management and providing integrated services across a range of
     settings. While some settings would welcome such an approach, consultation
     has highlighted some deep-rooted opposition amongst many groups.

           The current local situation of voluntary run groups is no longer suitable for the
        management of the foundation stage- committee run groups are hard to manage and
       getting committee members is very difficult. It should be the council who manage such
                                        Parent - Stroud, Stonehouse
        If the Government insists on claiming that they provide free childcare provision for
        pre-school children they should not rely on the voluntary sector to come up with the
                              Parent - Forest of Dean, Mitcheldean & Drybrook

6.17 Working together in rural areas to deliver a flexible package of care and early
     education is something that some providers recognise needs to happen. Pre-
     schools would consider working with childminders, but there are too few
     childminders in some areas. Network Childminders complain of the amount of
     paperwork involved in accessing early education funding and say that this puts
     off many potential recruits.

6.18 Parents with children across a wide age range were engaged in discussion
     around the issue of an extended and flexible entitlement. Parents with older
     children (5 and over) have the benefit of hindsight and are able to provide
     considered thoughts on how they might have changed their childcare and early
     years education use had things been different. For current users (parents with
     3 and 4 year old children) the situations is current and highly relevant, whilst
     parents with younger children (under 3 years) are currently making wide-
     ranging plans that often hinge on the entitlement.

6.19 Without exception, all parents interviewed to date have welcomed plans to
     extend entitlement to early years education to 15 hours from the current 12 ½
     hours. In general, they were also keen to use the entitlement flexibly.

6.20 Any extension to entitlement does need to be set within a local context
     however, with some parents in Gloucestershire not currently able to access the
     12 ½ hour entitlement. This is mainly due to a shortage of places available at
     sessional pre-school playgroups. This results in rationing of places in some
     areas in the County (consultation with parents suggested that this was the case
     some areas of Cheltenham and Gloucester in particular). To compensate for
     this, some parents are splitting their entitlement between a number of providers
     e.g. a parent may be only able to get 3 sessions per week at their local pre-
     school and will therefore top-up with two half-days at a local day nursery.

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      However, this is not an option for all parents as a choice of accessible provision
      is not available in every area.

         “I’m currently using 4 sessions (10 hours) because [the playgroup] doesn’t offer 5
         sessions. I have tried splitting nursery education between the playgroup and a day
            nursery, but my child didn’t like the day nursery. I would consider splitting my
       entitlement between two local playgroups. I would be interested in flexible entitlement;
                    it would be good if this playgroup offered afternoons as well”.
                                        Parent – Gloucester, Linden

6.21 Some parents also identified cost as an issue, as some day nurseries, whilst
     offering 2 ½ hours free early education, only accept children for ½ days –
     amounting to 5 hours. The cost of the 2 ½ hours of ‘childcare’ can be
     prohibitive for parents and therefore makes the early education element
     inaccessible. The accessibility of a free entitlement to up to 5 hours of early
     education at a day nursery will therefore be dependent of the admissions
     criteria of each setting and the cost of bridging the gap between the entitlement
     and any additional ‘childcare’.

6.22 Parents currently using their early years education entitlement in day nurseries
     particularly welcomed the extension of free hours as there was an assumption
     that it would reduce their childcare bills.

6.23 Most parents like the idea of having longer sessions that would allow them to
     do more whilst their children were receiving early education, but not all would
     wish to take up the entitlement in full. Several parents (particularly those with 3
     year olds) said that 3 hours was a long enough session for their children and
     that they probably wouldn’t want more until their child was older. On the other
     hand, many parents felt that 5 hour sessions would benefit the child helping
     them adjust more readily to starting ‘formal school’. Parents said that the ideal
     scenario was one that would allow them to gradually build up the length or
     number of sessions over time towards the full entitlement before children
     entered reception classes in schools.

6.24 Although most parents would welcome the option of a flexible entitlement, it
     would not be the most important factor affecting their choice of early years
     provider. The quality of early education – mainly evidenced by the local
     reputation of the provider – was felt by most parents to be the most important
     thing. It was particularly important to parents that their 3 and 4 year olds have
     the opportunity to attend the setting (mainly pre-schools) that feeds into the
     primary school they will be attending. In fact, most parents would stick with a
     ‘feeder playgroup’ even if it did not offer an extended and flexible entitlement
     even if there was a similar setting locally that did. Continuity for the child was
     seen as a really important factor. Parents currently accessing early education
     said that they would use longer sessions over fewer days, but only if it was
     offered at the setting that their child was currently attending.

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

          “15 hours would be good and so would flexible entitlement. I would use 5 hours
       sessions, although it wouldn’t help me get back to work because I have a younger child
                                                 as well”.
        “My child is not old enough yet. I would prefer to use more, shorter sessions rather
                     than less, longer ones - it depends on how my child adapts”.
                                         Cotswold, Beacon Stow

6.25 In general, parents could see the benefits of early education being delivered in
     up to 5 hour blocks, and the increased opportunities that this would provide to
     enable parents to work. Some parents with younger children (under 3’s) said
     that they would be able to think again about work options, but many parents
     said that although 5 hours would allow them to get more things done, such as
     shopping, housework, etc., it would not allow them to work as they did not
     expect to find a job that would fit in with the hours. This is more acute in rural
     areas where travelling time reduces the hours available to work.

6.26 Parents were more likely to see the value of having longer sessions when they
     were introduced to the concept of wrapping childcare around the entitlement to
     cover the working day, e.g. using a childminder before and after a pre-school
     session. This was an attractive option for parents that did not want to (or could
     not) use a day nursery, but for whom a 5 hour session would not be long
     enough to allow them to work. However, the potential costs were a concern for
     many parents, and some childminders were not able to accommodate it.

6.27 From interviews with providers, it would seem that the proportion of disabled
     children and children with special needs accessing the early years entitlement
     is higher than in childcare generally. A number of parents of disabled children
     said that they had found it more difficult to access provision when their child
     was under 2 years of age. The cost was a major factor, as parents were more
     likely to be looking to access childcare for respite or social reasons rather than
     to enable them to work – hence a higher take-up of the free early years
     entitlement. The number of early years education places in the nursery at
     Milestones School in Gloucester is an issue, with school staff saying that they
     cannot meet demand for places.

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                              Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7. Childcare: Supply
7.1       The Childcare Act (2006), defines childcare for which the Sufficiency
          Assessment must take account, as that for which the childcare element of the
          Working Tax Credit is payable.

7.2       In practice, this comprises full daycare, sessional daycare, crèches, out of
          school care and childminders registered with Ofsted, unregistered settings
          providing care for over 8’s approved by an accredited quality assurance
          scheme, child carers approved under the Childcare Approval scheme.

7.3       Consultation with parents of children across a wide age range in January 2007
          found that only 37% of parents in Gloucestershire had used formal childcare at
          any time in the previous 12 months. The majority of childcare is provided by
          parents themselves or is provided by relatives or friends, which falls outside of
          the scope of this Assessment.

Number of Childcare Places

7.4       The supply of childcare can be measured by taking the number of registered
          places in any area and setting it against the population of resident children.
          This measure has been used throughout this assessment using the calculation:
          Number of Childcare Places ÷ Child Population x 100.

7.5       In December 2006 there were 1,312 childcare settings registered with Ofsted in
          Gloucestershire16. These comprised of 672 childminders; 20 crèches; 198
          daycare providers (including playgroups providing care for more than 4 hours,
          nursery schools and independent school nursery units); 256 sessional care
          providers (including Early Years Centres); 128 out of school clubs and 109
          holiday playschemes. There are only two settings (both holiday schemes) that
          cater only for over 8’s in Gloucestershire.

7.6       The number of registered childcare places across all care types in
          Gloucestershire is 22,413. Amongst 104,643 children and young people aged 0
          to 14 (and to 17 for disabled young people), Gloucestershire has 21.4 childcare
          places per 100 children.

     Gloucestershire Children’s Information Service iCHiS database @ 14/01/07

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                                          Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 17: Childcare Places per 100 Children and Young People17

                                                           0         5             10                 15               20              25

                               C a m br i dg e sh i r e

                                             D e v on

                                             D or se t

                              Gl ou c e st e r sh i r e

                                      S hr o psh i r e

                                        S om e r se t

                                           S uf f o l k

                                    We st S u sse x

                                         Wi l t sh i r e

                               Wo r c e st e r sh i r e

7.7    Compared with its statistical neighbours (Authorities which are most similar in
       terms of socio-economic and other factors18) Gloucestershire has above
       average levels of childcare (see Figure 16) and the second highest amount of
       childcare in the group.

Geographical Spread

7.8    Across the County, there are varying levels of childcare provision, as shown in
       Figure 17. In January 2007, the highest number of childcare places were to be
       found in Cheltenham and Gloucester with over 9,400 places each, while there
       is a significant difference between urban and rural with only 5,400 places in the
       Forest of Dean.

Figure 18: Registered childcare places by district and type of setting (2007)19

                                0            500           1000   1500      2000        2500         3000      3500         4000        4500     5000

                Chel tenham

                  Cotswol d

             For est of Dean

                Gl oucester

                     Str oud

               Tewkesbur y

                 Childminders                         Creches            Daycare               Out o f Scho o l Care               Sessio nal Care

   Ofsted Quarterly Childcare Statistics as at 30 September 2006 and ONS Census Population 2001
   DfES Children's Services Statistical Neighbour Benchmarking Tool 2007
   Gloucestershire Children’s Information Service

                                                                            Page 31
                                Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.9   Whilst Figure 17 shows the volume of provision, a more accurate assessment
      of provision can be obtained by relating the number of registered childcare
      places to the population of children aged 0 to 14 years (and to 17 for disabled
      young people). Using this assessment, it can be seen that while Gloucester
      has a high number of places, compared with the population, the amount is low.
      Similarly, Cotswold has a low volume of childcare, but a high rate in relation to
      its population.

Figure 19: Number of childcare places per 100 children by District

                            0         5            10             15                 20        25                30

             Chel tenham

               Cotswol d

          For est of Dean

             Gl oucester

                  Str oud

            Tewkesbur y

              Childminders           Creches        Daycare            Out o f Scho o l Care   Sessio nal Care

Figure 20: Childcare Places per 100 Children by Extended Services area

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                                    Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.10 Examination of childcare levels by Extended Services areas (Figure 19) shows
     the disparity between smaller areas within the County. The range of childcare
     is from just 6 places per 100 children in Northleach area (Cotswold) to 58
     places in Kingsholm (Gloucester / Tewkesbury).

Supply of Places by Age Range and Type

7.11 While the total stock of childcare places provides an indication of childcare
     supply, it is more useful to identify the amount of care by the type of care and
     the age-ranges catered for.

Daycare for Pre-School Children

7.12 Daycare (full daycare as defined by Ofsted registration) for children under 5 in
     Gloucester is provided by childminders, day nurseries, nursery schools,
     nursery classes in independent schools and some pre-school groups which
     operate wrap-around care.

7.13 Across the County, there were 8,632 places registered for children under 5, in
     171 group daycare settings (6,486 places) and with 672 childminders20 (1,092
     places). The total population of children under 5 in Gloucestershire in
     September 2006 was 31,957. There were therefore 27 daycare places
     available for every 100 children aged 0 to 4 in the County, or just over 1 place
     for every 4 children. In England, the figure was just under 1 place for every 4
     children (23.6 places per 100 children21).

Figure 21: Daycare places per 100 children under 5 by district

                                0             5           10             15           20            25             30

                  Chelt enham

                   Cot swold

               Forest of Dean




               Childminders          Day Nurseries   Independent Scho o ls    P laygro ups   P rivate Nursery Scho o ls

  The survey of childcare providers found that 68% of children cared for by childminders were under 5. This
proportion has been applied to available places.
  All daycare and 68% of childminder places registered with Ofsted at September 2006 against ONS 2004
population estimates of children aged 0 to 4 years of age.

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.14 Levels of daycare for children under 5 varied across the County by District as
     set of in Figure 21 with Tewkesbury having the highest proportion of pre-school
     daycare, and the Forest of Dean having the least. While the proportions of
     childcare in Gloucestershire have risen significantly since the last Audit was
     undertaken in 2004 (21.4 places per 100 children), by District, there have been
     changes. The amount of childcare in urban areas – and in Gloucester in
     particular – has not increased at the same rate as that in rural areas. Cotswold
     and Tewkesbury districts have seen significant increases. This is due to new
     day nurseries opening (6 in Cotswold and 4 in Tewkesbury) along with a
     number of pre-school groups changing their registration status from sessional
     care to full daycare.

7.15 By Extended Services area, comparisons with the overall levels of childcare
     (figure 20) show a far higher level of childcare for younger children across the
     County, with 5 areas having more than 40 places available for every 100
     children (figure 22).

Figure 22: Number of Daycare Places per 100 Children aged 0 to 4

7.16 Figure 22 shows that while there is daycare in all areas of the County, the
     amount and availability by type varies widely. The type of childcare is important
     in providing parents not only with a choice of setting between home-based care
     and day nurseries, but often childminders provide the only option for parents
     working unusual or flexible hours. On average, each Extended Service area
     has a choice of 3 different types of provider of childcare (eg. day nursery,

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

          independent school, childminder) for children under 5, but in 3 areas (Cam &
          Dursley Outreach, Northleach and Tewkesbury Town Priors Park) there is no
          group-care provision. In general, urban areas provide more choice of childcare
          for pre-school children (see Area Reports in Appendix 1).

7.17 Factors that influence the distribution of childcare will include historical
     development; availability and affordability of suitable premises; patterns of
     demand; travel to work routes and community need. These are complex issues
     that often cannot be influenced through local childcare policy, but strategic
     planning may encourage development to balance out current shortfalls in
     specific areas.

Daycare for Babies

7.18 Accessing places for children under 1 year in many areas has been an issue,
     with the high staffing ratios and space requirements leading to unaffordable fee
     levels being set by providers and consequential market failure22.

7.19 In Gloucestershire, 85% of childminders (574) are registered to provide care for
     children under 1 year23, alongside 83% of day nurseries (92), 5 children’s
     centres, two private nursery schools and one independent school.

Figure 23: Number and proportion of childcare available for children under 1

                                             Day     Children's Independent Private Nursery Places per 100
          LA Name          Childminders
                                           Nurseries Centres      Schools       School          babies

          Cheltenham             84           438          66          0                 0       48.2
          Cotswold               52           243           0          0                 4       35.8
          Forest of Dean         59           134          13          12                0       25.1
          Gloucester             107          486          98          0                 0       51.1
          Stroud                 97           246          25          0                 0       30.5
          Tewkesbury             116          208          61          0                 15      52.2

7.20 There are 40 registered places per 100 children under 1 year of age in
     Gloucestershire, but within the County, places in the Forest of Dean, Stroud
     and Costwold are limited.

7.21 Statistics regarding the number of registered places for babies should be
     treated cautiously, as they may not represent the number of places available.
     This is particularly true with childminders whom generally, are registered to
     accept one child under one year of age. Consultation with a sample of 80
     childminders in January 2007 suggested that of those with a vacancy for a child
     under 12 months, only half were prepared to take one on.

     The Sustainability of Childcare. Daycare Trust. GLA 2004
     Gloucestershire CIS iChis Database September 2006

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.22 Vacancies for baby places are very low with in day nurseries, with only 1% of
     all places are vacant for babies.

Sessional Care

7.23 Sessional Care is defined by Ofsted as daycare that is provided for a
     continuous period of less than four hours. It is used primarily to deliver funded
     early education, which means that in practice, sessions are provided for the
     mandatory 2 ½ hours that is funded. Some settings may extend this to 3 hours,
     and may charge parents an additional amount for the non-funded element.

7.24 Although Sessional Care is wrapped up with funded early education for three
     and four year old children (see Section 6), most registered sessional care
     providers also accept children aged 2. Because of the increase in demand for
     early education places across the academic year, the number of 2 year olds
     taken on is often a balance for settings, that allows them to compensate for a
     lack of 4 year olds in the Autumn but enables more places to be available
     through the Spring and Summer. 82% of the 203 registered sessional care
     providers in Gloucestershire cater for 2 year olds.

7.25 Because of the short sessions provided, Sessional Care is generally not
     providing childcare for working parents. That is not to say, however, that
     parents of children in Sessional Care are not working. Consultation with
     parents found many children were being taken to Sessional Care settings by
     childminders, grandparents and other informal carers while their parents
     worked. Some parents were able to organise work around Sessional Care,
     sometimes combining Sessional Care with other childcare arrangements.

7.26 Together, the 201 registered Sessional Care providers were providing 4,886
     places. Figures 12 and 13 show the geographical spread of settings and places
     across the County.

7.27 Geographical analysis of sessional care users shows that they predominantly
     serve their local communities. The average distance that children travel to use
     sessional care is just 1.8km as opposed to 3.6km for children travelling to use
     full daycare.

Out of School Care

7.28 Out of school care is defined as care that is provided before school, after
     school and during school holidays for children of school age. In most cases this
     includes children aged 4 and over. For registration purposes, only out of school
     care that includes children under 8 is registerable. Settings catering uniquely
     for older children cannot register under the Children Act (1989) but can
     voluntarily gain an approved quality assurance mark that enables parents using
     their services to access Tax Credits.

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                                Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.29 Care for school aged children in Gloucestershire is provided by Out of School
     Clubs – some of whom operate during term time and a number of schemes that
     operate during school holidays. Childminders also provide care for children of
     school age with 43% of children using childminders in 2007 aged 5 or over.

7.30 In total, there were 7,012 out of school childcare places in Gloucestershire in
     January 2007. Set against the population of children and young people, there
     are 9.8 out of school places for every 100 aged 0 to 14 (and to 17 for children
     with disabilities) years in Gloucestershire. This compares with 27 places per
     100 in daycare settings for children under 5 across the County. However, the
     rate is higher than the average in England of 5.81 places per 100 children24.
     The amount of out of school care has increased by some 900 places since
     provision was last audited in 200425.

Figure 24: Out of School Care Places per 100 Children (aged 0 to 14 and to 17
with disabilities) by Type and District







                   Cheltenham      Cotswold    Forest of Dean   Gloucester     Stroud      Tewkesbury

                      Term Time care per 100 children                 Holiday Care per 100 Children

7.31 The distribution of out of school care is similar to that for pre-school childcare
     with the greatest amounts relative to the population in Cheltenham and the
     least in the Forest of Dean. Figures 25 and 26, show the distribution of
     registered out of school care and holiday care across the County.

     Ofsted Quarterly Childcare Statistics as at 30 September 2006 and ONS Census Population 2001
     Early Years Census 2004/2005 Daycare (ChIS data as at 06/12/2004)

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.32 Figure 25: Out of School Term Time places26 per 100 Children aged 0 to
     14 (and to 17 for disabled young people)

Figure 26: Out of School Holiday places27 per 100 children aged 0 to 14 (and to
17 for disabled young people)

     All registered out of school places plus 43% of childminder places
     All registered holiday scheme places plus 43% of childminder places

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Holiday Care

7.33 There are 109 group-care settings registered by Ofsted to provide holiday care.
     Of these, 88 are out of school providers, and 21 are daycare providers (mainly
     day nurseries) who also provide holiday care. While the majority of settings are
     open all day (8am to 5.30 or 6.30pm), a number have restricted opening hours
     being open for short sessions during the day, or for restricted days or week.
     Holidays covered also vary with Easter and Summer holidays covered by most
     provision, but half-term and Christmas breaks are less well catered for.

7.34 A number of holiday schemes run in leisure centres, or by sports clubs have
     limited opening hours, often with a break in the middle of the day, which may
     not suit working parents. The majority of childminders also provide holiday
     care, with 43% of registered childminder places taken up by children of school

Before and After School Care

7.35 The distribution of after school care, as shown in Figure 25, does not present a
     complete picture when consideration is given to future development. For out of
     school care during term time, the most important consideration is not proximity
     to a child’s home, but proximity to their school. For this reason, it is helpful to
     identify the reach of out of school care in relation to schools served by
     individual clubs.

7.36 There are 135 out of school clubs registered with Ofsted to provide before and
     after school care in Gloucestershire. Analysis of postcodes shows that of these,
     79 are situated on school sites, but a number of these - and some of those not
     on school sites - serve more than one school. Of the 205 primary and 42
     secondary schools in Gloucestershire, out of school clubs are either on school
     sites, or pick up from 207 schools (although there is likely to be an element of
     double counting within these figures as more than one provider can be picking
     up from individual schools).

7.37 The development of Extended Services in and around schools is likely to see
     an increase in this proportion as schools develop their own services or make
     links with existing childcare providers.

7.38 Of the 128 out of school clubs, 72 offer before school and after school care. 56
     settings offer only after-school care. There may be additional before-school
     provision on school premises that is unregistered and therefore unknown.

7.39 Breakfast clubs open from 7.00am with the majority opening between 7.30am
     and 8am. After school clubs in Gloucestershire operate from the end of the
     school day to either 5.30 or 6pm. During the course of this Assessment, only

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      one club was identified that extended provision to 7pm (Adventure

7.40 Most out of school providers only accept children up to the age of 11 or 12, but
     7% of clubs in Gloucestershire accept children up to 14 or even 15 years.

Childcare for Disabled Children

7.41 Provision for disabled children is provided by mainstream childcare settings
     and through a number of specialist services provided by maintained and
     voluntary organisations.

7.42 The survey of childcare providers in January 2007 found that disabled children
     took up 9% of places in all registered settings. As no clear definition of disability
     or special needs was given, many children with mild disabilities or health
     conditions (eg. eczema) were included by providers. Set against the population
     of children that have a range of disabilities and additional needs (see 3.10),
     only half of the population of children in this group would seem to be accessing
     mainstream provision.

7.43 The families of children with disabilities that were consulted said very clearly
     that what they needed was access to the same services as everyone else. This
     vision of ‘inclusion’ should not mean the reduction of choice or mean the
     running down of specialist services – certainly not at present. What is clear
     from their views is that there needs to be a balance of ‘inclusive’ and ‘exclusive’
     services. As one parent put it:

      “I think that both [inclusive and exclusive services] are necessary. Sometimes
      it's good for [my child] to be with children of similar abilities. It is also important
      for [my child] and for 'ordinary' children to be aware of each other.”

7.44 We found that the specialist services – such as Hop Skip and Jump in
     Cotswold and St Rose’s Early Years department are really valued by families,
     but families would like more to enable them not only to have choices about
     working, but to provide respite and social opportunities for children.
     Specifically, parents of school-aged children said that they wanted more
     holiday care.

Childcare Costs

7.45 Childcare providers in Gloucestershire have a range of services for which they
     charge differing amounts eg. by age-group in most day nurseries; and
     furthermore, there are a range of charging structures eg. hourly, daily weekly
     etc. To ascertain a broad perspective of fees, rates have been converted to a
     common unit and then taken averages taken across all settings. The average
     (median and modal) hourly amount that parents paid for childcare in 2007 was

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      £3 per hour. On average Private Nursery Schools provide the most expensive
      provision at an average of £3.94 per hour. In contrast, Holiday Playschemes
      charge only £2.10 per hour. An analysis by childcare type is shown in Figure

7.46 As well as differences in costs between sectors, childcare providers have a
     range of charging regimes differentiating between the ages of children, times of
     use and charging periods. For example, day nurseries will charge up to £3.50
     per hour for children under 1 year, falling to £2.80 for 3 and 4 year olds. If
     children use morning sessions, the price is generally 15% to 20% higher than
     in the afternoons. Parents paying monthly, pay on average 15% less than
     those paying weekly, and up to 40% less than those paying by the session.
     There are important implications for the accessibility of places in such settings
     for families on restricted incomes. Ironically, it is often those with the highest
     earnings who can afford to pay monthly, who pay the least.

Figure 27: Costs for childcare aggregated to an hourly rate (January 2007)

                             £0.00 £0.50 £1.00 £1.50 £2.00 £2.50 £3.00 £3.50 £4.00 £4.50



                Day Nurseries

            Children's Centres

             Holiday Schemes

          Independent Schools

           Out of School Care

        Pre-School Playgroups

       Private Nursery Schools

7.47 Comparisons with national and regional averages show that Gloucestershire
     has average, or in some cases above average childcare costs, with charges for
     children under the age of 2, being particularly high.

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 28: Comparative Childcare Costs (2007)28

                              Nursery   Nursery                                      Out of    Out of
                   Nursery                       Childminder Childminder Childminder
                               (2 and   (Highest                                     School School Club
                  (under 2)                       (under 2)  (2 and over) (Highest)
                                over)     Cost)                                       Club   (Highest)

Gloucestershire £163.73       £141.14   £181.80     £155.50        £126.60       £175.00     £39.05     £85.00
South West         £154.00    £141.00   £322.00     £149.00        £148.00       £250.00     £36.00     £85.00
England            £152.00    £140.00   £375.00     £141.00        £139.00       £400.00     £38.00     £218.00

7.48 There are significant differences in charges depending on the location of
     providers across the County.

Figure 29: Average Hourly cost of Childcare by Extended Services Area

7.49 Comparisons between Figure 29 and Figure 7 – showing income deprivation -
     makes a link between deprivation and cost. Although not always true, areas
     with low incomes more often than not have lower childcare costs, while high-
     income areas generally have higher charges for childcare.

Payment Terms

7.50 How providers charge for childcare can have a bearing on its accessibility to
     parents – particularly those on low incomes. In the January 2007 survey,
     providers were asked how they charged and whether or not they required up-
     front deposits.

     Daycare Trust Annual Childcare Cost Survey January 2007 and Survey of Gloucestershire Childcare providers

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

7.51 In general, childminders adopt the most flexible attitude with most accepting
     either weekly or monthly payment. 35% of childminders ask for fees to be paid
     in advance, with the remainder charging either weekly or monthly in arrears, or
     charging flexibly dependent on circumstances. Whilst not good business
     practice this provides many parents with accessible and affordable care.
     Almost all of the day nurseries that responded to the question said that they
     required payment in advance, with most charging monthly. Some were flexible
     in allowing parents to pay weekly, but only 8% said that they would accept
     payment in arrears. Pre-schools generally charge at the beginning of each half-
     term although some allow parents to pay weekly in arrears. Out of School
     Clubs that were surveyed all charged at least a week in advance, but some
     were prepared to be more flexible with hourly or part-session rates that can be
     paid for on the day if they had capacity. Children’s Centres charge for 65% of
     their services in advance but allow for some parents to pay in arrears. Half of
     pre-school playgroups charge in advance and half in arrears.

7.52 An additional factor affecting the accessibility to childcare for families –
     especially those on lower incomes, or parents moving into work, is the issues
     of deposits. The majority of day nurseries charge a deposit which is refundable
     usually, from the parents final invoice when they leave. Usual practice is for this
     to be a month’s fee, meaning that a parent could have to pay up to £1,500 up-
     front to access a full-time day nursery place. In addition, many nurseries
     charge a non-refundable registration fee of typically, £25 to £50. Approximately
     a third of childminders also ask for a deposit and some ask for a non-returnable
     retaining fee to keep a place free. This is usually negotiated with parents on an
     individual basis. Very few out of school clubs ask for deposits, although a small
     number have nominal registration fees.

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                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

8. Childcare: Demand
8.1     To establish sufficiency, an assessment needs to be made of the demand for
        childcare by parents that will enable them to remain in, or enter, work. There
        are two complimentary methods of assessing unmet demand for childcare

8.2     Firstly, an indication of unmet demand can be made from the number of
        vacancies available in settings, by type, across the area. Where there are high
        levels of vacancies, there may be low demand. Alternatively, settings with less
        than 15% spare capacity are likely to find it difficult to take many more children.
        Within an open market, this should indicate high demand and either sufficiency,
        or some unmet demand. Whilst not an exact science (issues of quality and
        accessibility often obscure the true picture) analysis of vacancies alongside
        other factors is important in assessing childcare sufficiency.

8.3     Secondly, consultation with parents and carers has highlighted particular
        issues and perceptions that will need to be considered in the final gap analysis
        between supply and demand.

Vacancy Analysis

8.4     During consultation with providers in January and February 2007, a number of
        questions were asked regarding vacancies and the availability of places.
        Providers were asked to identify vacancies, firstly by whether they were full-
        time29 or part-time30, and secondly by age-group. Figure 30 shows the
        proportion of full and part time vacancies set against the registered number of
        places in each setting type.

Figure 30: Childcare Vacancies by Provision Type31

                                       Full Time VacanciesPart Time VacanciesTotal FTE Vacancies

             Childminders                     10%                    8%                    19%
             Day Nurseries                    15%                   11%                    26%
             Children's / EY Centres           4%                    6%                    10%
             Holiday Schemes                  22%                    0%                    22%
             Independent Schools              24%                    8%                    32%
             Out of School Clubs              30%                    2%                    32%
             Playgroups                        9%                   14%                    23%
             Private Nursery Schools           5%                    6%                    12%

   A vacancy available all day and all week eg. a place that would be available five days per week, 8am to 6pm, 51
weeks per year, in the case of a day nursery.
   Part-time vacancies expressed as full-time pro-rata places: eg. if an out of school club has a place free on two
nights each week out of the five that are operated, this would represent 0.4 FTE part-time places.
   Survey of Gloucestershire Childcare Providers February 2006 (n = 307).

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                              Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

8.5        Data from providers shows that 23% of all childcare places registered in
           Gloucestershire were vacant and 35% of providers had a vacancy for a full-
           time place. These consisted of 57% of day nurseries, 13% of childminders,
           25% of pre-school groups and 53% of out of school clubs. 26% of all providers
           had neither full-time nor part-time vacancies.

8.6        While the total number of vacancies (as shown in Figure 30) can indicate spare
           capacity within each sector, information from providers shows that part-time
           places are often spread out across days and weeks in small chunks and are
           unlikely to meet the needs of many families – which is often why they are
           vacant. For the Sufficiency Assessment, which sets out to assess the
           availability of childcare for parents in work or training, or seeking to move into
           work, the availability of part-time places does not equate to available,
           accessible childcare. Figure 31, shows the proportion of full-time places only,
           by district and childcare type based on the sample of 307 childcare providers.

Figure 31:Total of full-time vacancies by provision type and District

                                                                                        Day Nurseries
  15%                                                                                   Children's Centres
      5%                                                                                Out of School
















8.7        By District, Gloucester has the highest number of full-time vacancies (22%)
           with Stroud having 19% of all places vacant. In the Forest of Dean, 13% of
           places were vacant with Cheltenham and Cotswold having a 10% rate.
           Tewkesbury has the lowest full-time vacancy rate of 7% across all provision.

Changing Demand for Childcare

8.8        Vacancies provide an indication as to levels of demand against supply at a
           particular point in time, but do not indicate trends in demand for childcare. To
           establish recent trends in demand, providers were also asked whether the
           number of enquiries for places had increased, decreased or remained the
           same over the previous 12 months. Overall, 48% of providers said that they

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                                    Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

          had received more enquiries; 39% said levels had not changed; while 13% said
          that demand was falling.

Figure 32: Changes in enquiries for childcare places 2006-200732 by childcare

                      Private Nursery Schools

                       Pre-School Playgroups

                          Out of School Clubs

                         Independent Schools                                                                  Less Demand

                              Holiday Schemes
                                                                                                              No Change
               Early Years / Children's Centres

                                                                                                              M o re Demand
                                  Day Nurseries



                                                  0%   10%   20%    30%      40%   50%    60%     70%   80%

8.9       Across all sectors, more settings are seeing an increase than a decrease in
          enquiries for places. Strongest demand is for holiday schemes and children’s
          centres / early years centres, where over 60% of settings saw increases in
          enquiries. Out of school clubs are also experiencing high demand and more
          pre-school playgroups see increases in enquiries than are either standing still,
          or seeing less. Demand for pre-school daycare (day nurseries, independent
          schools and private nursery schools) is not as strong, while the majority of
          childminders have seen no change in demand.

Figure 33: Changes in enquiries for childcare places 2006-2007 by District

                                  0%         10%       20%     30%        40%       50%         60%     70%


                     Co tswo ld

               Fo rest o f Dean                                                                               M o re Demand

                                                                                                              No Change
                   Glo ucester

                                                                                                              Less Demand
                        Stro ud


     Survey of providers January 2007 (n=298)

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

8.10 In all areas of the County, more childcare providers said that they were seeing
     at least the same amount, or more enquiries for childcare than were seeing
     less. Tewkesbury is seeing the least growth in demand, while providers in the
     Forest of Dean are experiencing the most.

               We are in desperate need of more childminders in the Cinderford area
                                         Childminder, Forest of Dean
        There are not many child care places around here - we are finding a growing demand
                                          for our service.
                                     Holiday Playscheme, Forest of Dean
                    All the childminders in this area seem to be fairly booked up.
                                         Childminder, Forest of Dean
        At present we are unable to cater for all those wanting a place at nursery. We have a
         waiting list. However in Sept 05 we had many vacancies, so every year is different.
                                         Day Nursery, Forest of Dean
                         Very busy at the moment, lot of demand for babies
                                         Day Nursery, Forest of Dean

8.11 However, as the data in Figure 31 suggests, not all providers are experiencing
     greater demand for their services:

           We have had significantly less enquiries, possibly due to the fact that housing is
          expensive in our area and therefore fewer young parents but also other nurseries
                              opening in our area has had a big effect.
                                         Day Nursery, Forest of Dean
       We have grave concerns about the future of our setting due to the fall in numbers in the
        area but mainly due to the change of status of the adjacent group, formerly 'Special
              Needs Centre' but now an Early Years Centre running a parallel group.
                                Children’s / Early Years Centre, Forest of Dean
                Falling rolls, competition for children impact on day care providers.
                                    Pre-School Playgroup, Forest of Dean
        There are quite a lot of playgroups within a fairly small geographical area, therefore
             demand is quite low as limited to immediate village vicinity on the whole.
                                    Pre-School Playgroup, Forest of Dean

8.12 Demand for childcare services is not as straightforward as data suggests, with
     issues such as the detailed location of provision, quality of services, reputation
     and the business skills of those running childcare settings all playing a part in
     the success of individual providers.

         I am turning people away because I can't cope with demand, but just down the road
        someone has had to give up childminding because they aren't getting enough business.
                                          Childminder, Tewkesbury

8.13 In general, consultation with providers suggests that growing competition is a
     major factor for those that see a reduction in enquiries. Sometimes this is the
     development of, for example a new day nursery, which can create competition
     with existing day nurseries, or a new out of school club which can mean a drop
     in demand for places for school-aged children with local childminders.

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8.14 Fluctuations in the local population of children affect the pre-school market and
     smaller rural settings in particular, as their catchment areas are often very
     small. Commonly, pre-school groups said that they found it difficult to plan
     ahead as they could not predict future numbers with any accuracy.

The views of Parents and Carers

8.15 During January and February, a consultation exercise took place to establish
     the views of parents and carers in Gloucestershire regarding childcare.
     Through a mixture of face-to-face interviews, focus groups and structured
     questionnaires, the views of parents (fathers, mothers and other carers in loco
     parentis) as to the availability and accessibility of childcare were sought.
     Consultation took place through existing structures such as parent and toddler
     groups; children’s centres; schools; pre-schools; health clinics and other
     locations where parents were already meeting.

Knowledge and Perceptions

8.16 Parents knowledge of what childcare options are available to them varied
     widely. In general, those parents (and overwhelmingly we found that mothers
     take primary responsibility for childcare in Gloucestershire) who are part of
     wider social networks find out about childcare from other parents.

        “I know it seems awful, but I don’t really KNOW what different types of childcare are
                    on offer, apart from this Preschool group I use twice a week.”
        “As the other kids are older now (9, 14 and 16) I don’t feel that with my youngest (2.5
         years) I know what all the new options are for childcare. Things have changed, but I
        work such long hours at our pub, as well as looking after the kids myself, I don’t have
                                      a chance to find things out.”
                               Parents from Bartongate & Finlay in Gloucester
         Better if more advertising rather than have to go searching for it, don't know where
                                         would get info from
                                            Parent from Stroud

8.17 Young families moving to a new area can find it very difficult to tap into local
     childcare options, again, unless they have family or friends already linked in to
     local networks - which often they don't because they have moved for work or to
     be near elderly relatives who aren't aware of childcare.

8.18 Parents awareness of different types of childcare, and childcare choices,
     seems to be dependent on the age of their child and what childcare is available
     to them in their immediate locality. First time mums can find it difficult to find out
     about childcare options, particularly if their health visitor doesn't hand info to
     them, if they for some reason miss out on forming an ante-natal network of
     other mums.

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8.19 Parents don't find out about childcare via the helpline or internet, and most
     don't expect to. Very few parents had heard about, or had used the Childcare
     Information Service. 90% is by word of mouth, with recommendation being
     extremely important. But if parents fail for some reason to get into the word of
     mouth system, they struggle with childcare issues and find it difficult to get

8.20 When asked about specific types of childcare, some parents confused ‘day
     nurseries’ with ‘pre-school playgroups’ using the term ‘nursery’ interchangeably
     depending on what providers were known as locally. When discussing day
     nurseries, parents who were not users, and particularly parents on lower
     incomes, had the perception that they were inflexible and very expensive. The
     perceived cost of day nursery provision was a barrier to some parents even
     investigating options for work or training supported by a day nursery.

               It’s only worthwhile using a day nursery if you have a highly paid job
            Day nurseries are really expensive and you have to pay for at least half a day.
                                             Parents in Stroud

8.21 Parents who were using, or had used day nurseries had a very positive view of
     them with many being impressed by the quality of care provided, and the
     opening hours enabled parents to do something meaningful with their time –
     whether this was working outside the home or within.

8.22 Parents had mixed views of childminders. Many parents wanted a home-based
     environment for their children, while others wanted group-care or were
     suspicious of childminders.

                         “I like the home environment childminders offer”
                 “I wouldn’t use a childminder unless I knew the person very well”.
                                         Parents in Forest of Dean
         "My Health Visitor recommended I use a childminder until my child is 2 years old. I
        have found a childminder now, but it has been very difficult. We need more registered
          childminders in Bream. There are a few here but they all seem to be booked up".
                                         Parent in Forest of Dean
           "I never wanted to use a childminder because I wanted my children to socialise,
                                           Parent in Cirencester

8.23 We did not come across any parents who had heard of home-based childcare,
     and most do not seem interested. Only a small number of parents - when the
     concept was explained - were interested in, for example, a nanny-share where
     they could subsidise care with Tax Credits.

8.24 The most common form of registered childcare used by parents is sessional
     care, provided mainly by pre-school playgroups. In general, because they are
     local, parents find out about them through friends, family and neighbours. An

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      analysis of sessional care is set out in Section 6, which concludes that parents
      like local pre-school groups, but want the hours and ages extended, and want
      the ability to use their free early years entitlement flexibly.

8.25 Parents of children with school-aged children had a good knowledge of out of
     school care, but not all were aware that childminders were an option that could
     provide a flexible solution to parents working unusual hours. For parents with
     young children – many of whom do not work, or only work part-time – out of
     school care is often more important to them than pre-school daycare, as many
     often plan to work, or increase work once their youngest child is in school full-
     time, and recognise the importance of out of school clubs and particularly
     holiday schemes.

Current Childcare Use

8.26 Three-quarters of the parents interviewed had used some form of childcare in
     the past 12 months. This suggests that in a quarter of families, parents are
     either working around their care commitments; their children are too old to
     require care; or are not working and caring for their children themselves (88%
     of the parents in the sample had at least one child of pre-school age).

8.27 20% of parents who use childcare relied on informal care, with grandparents
     being the most common source of informal care. The most common form of
     childcare however, was sessional care – with 38% of parents interviewed
     taking up free early education places. 17% of parents used a day nursery,
     while 11% used out of school care and 7% used a childminder.

8.28 We found that parents had very strong feelings about informal childcare. Those
     parents who do not use formal care, strongly agreed with the statement “I
     prefer to use family or friends to care for my children”. Parents using formal
     care almost all strongly disagreed with the statement. This suggests that
     parents make a clear choice about formal or informal childcare and stick with
     that decision, even though in answer to other questions, it is clear that they are
     concerned about issues such as quality.

8.29 Parents were asked whether they were satisfied with their current care
     arrangements. 77% of parents said that they were satisfied. Of those who were
     dissatisfied, half were concerned with the quality of care that their child was
     receiving, and nearly three-quarters were unhappy because of the cost of

             Needed proper state run childcare, free for all like I received in the 1960's
                                            Parent in Stroud
       More support/subsidy for after school provision, cheaper childcare if you wish to work
                         for a full day, childcare during school holidays.
                                           Parent in Cotswold

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         Private day nurseries cost £32 per day, if I had an extra £100 a week I would use a
                                      nursery for 2 days a week
                                           Parent in Gloucester
       With 4 kids holiday childcare would be too expensive even if I'm only paying 20% (with
                 80% covered by Childcare Tax Credit). I'd love to go back to work.
                                           Parent in Gloucester

8.30 Parents not using formal care were sometimes put off by the lack of flexibility
     shown by day nurseries. Some parents who work on changing rotas found
     formal care impossible to use as providers were not able to provide flexibility
     around changing days each week. A lack of flexibility in charging was also a
     complaint made by parents about day nurseries – where parents would like to
     see hourly charges, rather than fixed days or half-days.

8.31 Parents with school-aged children who were accessing out of school clubs
     were mostly happy with the services but some complained about the prices
     they were paying and a lack of holiday care. Where there was no out of school
     care in or around local schools, parents of school-aged children felt particularly

        I would like to see more support/subsidy for after school provision, cheaper childcare
                  if you wish to work for a full day, childcare during school holidays
                                            Parent in Cotswold
          I would like to see childcare available during school holidays: This is the biggest
                                          problem I encounter.
         Eldersfield Lawn Primary is in the process of setting up an After school club which
                                  will help, holiday care is a problem
                                          Parents in Tewkesbury

Barriers to Childcare Use


8.32 Just over 12% of 307 parents who were consulted said that there was not
     enough childcare available where they needed it. Most of their concerns were
     around a lack of provision in specific areas, a lack of choice of their preferred
     type of childcare, or distances that they had to travel.

                           “There is lots of choice, if you have transport.”
                                           Parent in Tewkesbury
       “If you want a nursery, you have to travel. There should be more groups and a nursery
                                         in every village!”
                                            Parent in Cotswold
        While you’d expect that parents may be resentful of travelling in from the surrounding
        areas, any inconvenience is outweighed by the quality of care and the environment at
        Condicote. Any issues about lack of Preschool places in Moreton or Stow are clearly
         forgotten because parents feel fortunate in their child having a place at Condicote.
                                            Parent in Cotswold

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

        “The day nursery is 16 miles away from home but it is in the right direction for going
                                             to work”.
                                         Parent in Forest of Dean
         “I work quite a way from home, so it’s tricky finding a nursery half way between my
                                         work and home.”
                                         Parent in Forest of Dean
          There are no day nurseries or childminders actually in Painswick, so I use a day
       nursery in Cheltenham. There are some in Stroud but that is in the wrong direction for
                                             my work”.
                                             Parent in Stroud

8.33 In rural areas, issues of accessibility are clearly more acute than in urban areas
     with lack of transport a barrier for some parents. Higher income families with
     cars are prepared to travel surprisingly long distances to access quality
     childcare. But those without transport are often left with limited options, and
     where local availability is limited, mothers are trapped in the home and cannot
     return to work (Stow and Moreton in particular). Even if parents have cars,
     where childcare for different ages is spread over a geographical area, parents
     find timings and transport difficult to juggle.


8.34 Nearly 20% of parents said that childcare was not available when they needed
     it. Rather than lots of issues around unsusual working hours and shift patterns
     (although there is clearly a lack of childcare than meets such needs), the lack
     of flexible childcare means that many parents are restricted in what work they
     can do, or how long they can work, by the availability of childcare.

         “On the days I’m working at the private nursery and my son isn’t with me, it can be
          tricky sorting out childcare to cover til 6pm. I have to rely on my husband being
                                        available from work.”
                                           Parent in Gloucester
        “The childminder I found only had two sessions free per week when I started, so I had
          to go with that. When another session became free, I felt I had to jump at it. So my
                            work hours have been set by the childminder!”
         “He’ll be starting Playgroup soon. I guess I’ll wait and see what sessions they can
        offer me. I’m expecting to work around that. But actually, is that right. Or should I be
                                 telling them what sessions I need?”
                                            Parents in Stroud
       “My work won’t let me change to the morning shift, which would work better with the
       nursery hours. So I keep being late for work because nursery starts at 1pm and so does
       work. I keep getting disciplinaries. But they won’t be flexible (work). I can see that I’m
                                  going to have to find another job.”
       “I’m a nurse on shifts and I have to say that it’s a problem not just because they can’t
          give me more than 3 sessions a week at the Preschool for him, but the system isn’t
        flexible enough for my shifts either. I have to rely on a friend to help out for 3 days a
                                           Parents in Gloucester

8.35 The short hours and lack of flexibility in early education provision is an issue for
     many parents, while parents using day nurseries and childminders appreciate

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

     the formal and informal flexibility shown by these providers. Parents with older
     children bemoaned the lack of breakfast clubs in some areas, and a lack of
     holiday provision was a recurring theme.


8.36 26% of parents felt that they could not afford to pay for childcare. While many
     of these parents were on incomes of below £1,000 per month (where the full
     Childcare Element of the Working Tax Credit would be payable), two-thirds had
     higher incomes. 10% of parents who said that they couldn’t afford childcare
     had family incomes of over £48,000 per year.

8.37 Parents on the lowest incomes – including those on benefits – were most likely
     to say that affordability was a barrier to them accessing childcare. However, it
     was often a perception that childcare was unaffordable rather than knowledge
     based on evidence. Some parents who had investigated childcare costs had
     clearly come to the decision that it wasn’t affordable, or commonly, the cost of
     childcare outweighed most of the benefits of working.

                 “Childcare costs a lot - it wouldn’t be worth going back to work”.
                                          Parent in Cheltenham
                   “I would have considered using a day nursery but for the cost”
                                          Parent in Gloucester
        “There’s no point paying for childcare because I would be going out to work just to
                                            pay for it”
                                          Parent in Tewkesbury
         “I could never afford the childcare I’d need to cover for school holidays. I’ve got 6
        children. The two oldest can look after themselves now. But imagine the cost for the 3
        at school and the baby. They’re [job centre adviser] trying to tell me it’s worth going
         back to work, but they can’t tell me what would happen in the school holidays. Even
       with 80% covered in Childcare Tax Credits, the 20% would add up. I’d love to go back
                                            to work though.”
       “I started using the crèche at the college for my daughter when I was studying English
       before my son was born. But it got too expensive – it was £3.50 an hour and I only paid
       about £3 because the college helped me a bit. So I stopped studying. I’d like to go back
                                 and study, but I still can’t afford it.”
                                          Parents in Gloucester

8.38 47% of the parents surveyed who were using formal childcare in
     Gloucestershire were claiming support with costs through the childcare element
     of the Working Tax Credit. These were predominantly parents with family
     incomes of less than £30,000 using full daycare and out of school and holiday
     care. Despite them receiving the childcare element of the Working Tax Credit,
     parents were often confused about how their entitlement was calculated and
     concerned about over payments that they might have to refund. Parents also
     said that the forms were overly complex with the effort needed to complete
     them not worth the benefits gained.

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                          Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

8.39 Many parents not using formal care had a negative perception of the Tax
     Credits. They believed that the amounts paid to them would not be enough to
     be cover the costs of care, even with 80% tax credit support. Additional worries
     were expressed about overpayments and the consequences of this. The
     inflexibility of providers in payment terms (for example, day nurseries asking for
     one month’s fees in advance) was cited as a further barrier, particularly when
     parents were unsure about how much support they would get and when this
     would be paid.

8.40 Some parents were happy to pay for childcare and saw it as good value,
     especially those using childminders, and some out of school clubs and day
     nurseries. Parents have few issues with pre-school playgroups, as costs are
     either low or sessions are free. Parents who are supported by their employers
     through childcare vouchers are generally less concerned with costs.

         “You can’t say it’s too expensive because he really loves the nursery. I know I can
        barely afford it and I might have to move him, but I don’t want to because he’s really
                                            settled there.”
        Single mother of 7 month old, working 16 hours per week with a household income below £500 per month,
                      paying £19 per session for four half-day sessions per week in Forest of Dean
         “You can’t say it’s too expensive (Day Nursery), because we should be prepared to
                    value our children, but really it’s more than we can afford.”
                                              Parent in Forest of Dean
            “I’m happy with it (Day Nursery) - I use the NHS Childcare Voucher system”
                                                Parent in Gloucester


8.41 Parents were asked what support or information they really needed to find out
     about childcare. While most parents use and trust the ‘grapevine’ and like to
     find out about good quality childcare by word of mouth recommendations,
     others would like to see better formal information channels.

           “As a new mum, I really didn’t feel there was enough information. I kept hoping
       someone would tell me what was available and what I should do. I found a childminder
        myself in the end. And I found my way to this Toddler group by word of mouth. It was
         recommended, so I come here even though I live nearer the Northway estate. There
       should be a leaflet or something, for first time mums – something after the health visits
                                            have finished.”
          “We moved here when they were 13 months old. We didn’t have a clue what was
       available and it was a strain trying to find out, as well as coping with the move, both of
        us working, and being first time parents with twins. There should be a pack the estate
                           agents give out – that would really have helped.”
        “…my Health Visitor gave me a folder of information which included lists of numbers
               for childcare providers. I also used the Ofsted reports to help choose”
        “I would go to the GL11 Sure Start Centre in Cam for information on childcare - we
                                  are lucky to have that in this area”
                                          Parents in Cam & Dursley, Stroud
       “They could TELL us more about what’s available. We know they’ve built new bits, but
                              what are they supposed to be for?”

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                          Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

           “I don’t read information leaflets. There’s just to many of them. Get them to TELL us
                                              what is around.”
                                        Parents in Kingsholm, Gloucester


8.42 A number of parents of children with disabilities were consulted through
     consultation in mainstream settings and during session at Milestones School.
     Comments received on questionnaires included:

        I would like to see more childcare places for disabled children at the same cost. I am
           currently paying £3 per hour for my son who is 'normal' and £6 per hour for my
       autistic son! Is this fair? I have also been refused after school clubs for my autistic son.
                                            Parent in Forest of Dean
             There is a lack of communication between CDW, CIN and Health with regard to
                                             Parent in Cheltenham
            More childcare for children, especially preschool with mental as well as physical
                                              Parent in Gloucester
           Saturday clubs for special needs children. Lack of respite for special needs children,
                             very poor amount offered and long waiting lists
                                              Parent in Gloucester
            Just looking for a preschool for him (disabled son) now. Feels like a hard process.
                                       There's no central directory.
                                                Parent in Stroud

8.43 Parents of disabled children, generally found it more difficult to find the care
     that they wanted because they often needed care for respite rather than work,
     or the patterns of useage were abnormal. Finding out about suitable childcare
     was the primary barrier.

8.44 The reasons that parents of disabled children use childcare often differ from
     other parents, with childcare needed for respite. Parents may have a stressful
     time due to their child's needs, e.g. sleep problems, behaviour problems; they
     may have more than one child with special needs; and they often have lots of
     medical and other appointments which disrupt care. Parents who are carers
     for children or adults will have extra stresses and responsibilites and may need
     respite sessions or regular low-cost childcare to enable them to juggle these
     responsibilities. In general carers feel that their needs are not taken into
     account or recognised as important.

8.45 A group of parents of disabled children consulted with at Milestones School
     identified the following gaps in childcare provision for disabled children:

       •      Specialist out of school care – particularly holiday care for disabled

       •      A Saturday morning club that provided some weekend respite for families.

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

       •   Accessing appropriate childcare with additional support - staff, equipment
           (chairs, standing frames, etc.), flexible options (around appointments),
           costs (as most carers have had to give up work and rely on benefits,
           carers allowance, D.L.A.)

       •   Emergency placements for children with additional needs or their siblings.

       •   Additional placements to cover hospital, clinic appointments.

       •   Holiday placements for older children with additional needs - for working

       •   Children with medical needs, e.g. tracheotomies, tube fed, epilepsy, etc.
           have the most difficulty in accessing suitable childcare with nursing

       •   After School Clubs, Breakfast Clubs, etc. are not set up for children with
           special needs and children miss out as the staff cannot cope with
           behaviour difficulties.

       •   Cost is a major stumbling block for lots of families. Carers are often
           caught in a poverty trap due to not being able to work.

8.46 A number of parents from traditionally hard-to-reach groups were interviewed
     during the course of this research, including BME families, a group of teenage
     parents, a small number of homeless parents and some with limited use of
     English. Unsurprisingly, parents in these groups were much less likely than
     others to be using formal childcare. For teenage parents, their own parents
     were more-often-than not providing or coordinating care that enabled them to
     continue studies or undertake training. For homeless families, childcare was a
     very low priority set against the more pressing issues of finding

8.47 The common thread amongst all hard-to-reach and marginalised families that
     were interviewed, was the lack of choice that they have because they do not, or
     cannot access information. The more marginalised parents are, the greater
     their need for information, but it needs to be presented informally and
     preferably by people they trust and in person.

Demand Analysis

8.48 In bringing together a number of socio-economic statistics as set out in
     Sections 2 to 3 of this report, a picture of current childcare demand in each
     area of Gloucestershire can be built up. The analysis is based on a number of
     data sets from which the following assumptions regarding childcare demand
     have been made:

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

     Data Set                                     Assumption
                                                  High proportion of children = High demand for
     Proportion of children in the population
     Household Incomes                            High incomes = High demand for childcare
     Children in Lone Parent Households           High proportion of Working Lone Parent
     where parent is working                      Households = High demand for childcare
     Households with children where adults        High proportion of Working Households = High
     work                                         demand for childcare
     Proportion of children in households
                                                  High take-up = High demand for childcare
     claiming WTC
     Occupancy of existing childcare
                                                  High occupancy = High demand for childcare

8.49 Using these six indicators, a picture of potential demand for childcare in each
     area of Gloucestershire can be built up. Set against the averages for each data
     set for the County, an index score will indicate where demand for childcare
     should be high or low. This is shown in Figure 34 where the darker areas show
     where demand for childcare should be highest and lighter colours where
     demand is likely to be lowest.

8.50 While this analysis will highlight areas where market forces should operate and
     develop provision, it is in the areas of lowest demand where most intervention
     is likely. A full set of data used in this analysis is set out as Appendix 4.

Figure 34: Childcare Demand Index Map

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

9. Market Analysis: Conclusions
9.1   The evidence presented in this report highlights many issues regarding the
      supply of childcare and the demand for childcare places. Gloucestershire is a
      diverse authority with significant differences between communities in their
      dynamics, their make-up and therefore their need and demand for childcare
      services. On the face of it, compared with statistically similar areas both in the
      South West and in other areas of England, Gloucestershire has fairly high
      levels of childcare already and does not have any major gaps in provision
      across the County. There are local gaps and instances where demand for
      specific services is greater than supply.

Geographical Gaps

9.2   Evidence presented in this report has shown that relating the supply of
      childcare to demand is a complex calculation that involvers many variables.
      The most obvious method of identifying childcare gaps geographically is to
      examine current levels of provision in different areas and plan to ‘bridge the
      gap’ between the current level of provision and the Gloucestershire average.

9.3   In total, this would require 1,798 new daycare places (in day nurseries and with
      childminders) to be created along with 674 term-time out of school places and
      885 holiday scheme places (in out of school clubs, holiday schemes and with
      childminders). The total number of new places in each area are set out in
      Figure 35 and are detailed in Appendix 3.

Figure 35: Total new childcare places required to bring each area up to
Gloucestershire average

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

9.4   The gaps identified in Figure 35 would result in a minimum level of provision
      being available in all areas of Gloucestershire, and there is some evidence
      from the levels of vacancies in current settings, and in consultation with
      parents, that there is demand in some of the areas highlighted for day nursery
      and out of school services to fill gaps in current provision.

9.5   However, the analysis fails to identify local issues such as the rural nature of
      some areas (it is unlikely that 267 new places in Northleach would be
      sustainable), and levels of vacancies in current provision in other areas.

9.6   Vacancy rates are likely to be a good indication as to unmet demand for
      childcare services being expressed through market forces. Taking a 15%
      vacancy rate as the benchmark below which there may be issues of under-
      supply, there is high demand in the areas identified by District and by childcare
      type in Figure 31 as having low full-time vacancy rates. If these areas are
      cross-referenced with those identified as being able to sustain high levels of
      childcare (Figure 34) with the theoretical lack of supply as set out in Figure 35,
      it would appear that a number of areas would benefit from - and could sustain –
      higher levels of care.

9.7   Taking into account current levels of childcare, vacancies in existing provision,
      changing demand as reported by childcare providers, and parents views, the
      following areas stand out as having childcare gaps:

       •   Bartongate & Finlay (Daycare places)
       •   Bisley & Eastcombe (Daycare & Holiday Care places)
       •   Cainscross (All types)
       •   Coneyhill & Robinswood (Daycare places)
       •   Eastcombe (All types)
       •   Linden (Daycare places)
       •   Lydney (All types)
       •   Lydney Outreach (Out of school & holiday places)
       •   Quedgley & Hardwicke (Daycare places)
       •   Stroud Central (Out of school & holiday places)
       •   Tewkesbury Town Priors Park (Daycare & Holiday Care places)

Income Gaps

9.8   In examining the affordability of childcare services in Gloucestershire, it is
      useful to identify whether parents are ‘customers’ or ‘beneficiaries’ of childcare
      as shown in the model set out in Figure 36.

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Figure 36: Factors affecting whether parents are beneficiaries or customers of
                Beneficiaries of Childcare                             Customers of Childcare

                   Limited purchasing power                        Higher degree of purchasing power
             not working or in low-paid employment                typically in higher paid employment OR
              childcare element of WTC ineffective                       childcare element of WTC
                 Limited mobility for childcare                           Will travel for childcare
                  Low awareness of childcare                           More awareness of childcare
            Low confidence in accessing childcare                     High confidence in accessing

9.9       Many economic indicators suggest that people in Gloucestershire are relatively
          well-off, although wide gaps exist in incomes in both rural and urban areas.
          Using the model in Figure 29 against the Childcare Demand Index data
          presented in Section 7, suggests that in Gloucestershire, a quarter of children
          are in families that are the ‘beneficiaries’ of childcare whilst the majority, are in
          families that are, or could be, ‘customers’ of childcare.

9.10 More Gloucestershire parents are Customers of childcare as they more likely to
     be in regular employment and to be able to access formal childcare that
     supports working patterns. This is either because they command a sufficiently
     high income, or because they are able to use the childcare element of the WTC
     as a subsidy. Some parents (particularly in the most affluent areas) do not work
     or work only a small number of hours, but nevertheless have sufficient income
     to enable them to purchase formal care provision on a regular basis, for
     example because their partner earns a reasonable income. Because of their
     purchasing power Customers are much more able to exercise choice about the
     type of childcare they use, particularly in relation to criteria such as
     accessibility, quality and flexibility. This is evidenced by the higher than
     average distances travelled by parents from these areas to use early years
     provision (see Section 5).

9.11 There is a proportion of the population of Gloucestershire for whom childcare
     development has had little impact, for reasons of isolation, lack of transport,
     income, or information. These are the Beneficiaries of childcare. They are
     parents whose purchasing power is limited either because they do not work,
     their work is low-paid and part-time, or because they work longer hours, the
     childcare element of the WTC is insufficient to meet their childcare needs, or
     because they do not access the tax credit system through lack of trust. When
     they are in work, these parents are often using informal childcare. Where
     beneficiaries are using formal provision, it tends to be care that is subsidised,
     free early years education, sessional or ad hoc care. Many people in this group

     National Centre for Social Research: Local Childcare Markets – A Longitudinal Study. DfES 2005

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      are aware of the social or developmental benefits for their children, for example
      from early years education, but see childcare to support work as inaccessible
      to them because they lack the buying power to ‘shop around’.

9.12 The beneficiaries of childcare therefore require additional support to become
     customers to have access to a wider range of services and life choices. The
     development children’s centres may provide accessibility to childcare, but
     consultation with parents suggests that many will use the ‘free’ services and
     support provided in centres, but will not use the childcare element thereby
     remaining as beneficiaries of only subsidised or free provision. Intensive
     support to these marginal groups is needed to encourage, and enable them to
     use childcare to support work, thereby impacting on child poverty in the most
     deprived areas of Gloucestershire, and reaching people living on low incomes
     in rural areas.

Specific Needs Gaps

9.13 Parents of disabled children want to be able to access the same range of
     services as anyone else and the Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) should
     enable them to do this. Parents of disabled children often need childcare for
     different reasons though, and when they look for childcare, evidence suggests
     that they can face significant difficulties. Some childcare providers do not seem
     to be aware of their responsibilities under the DDA, and parents need support
     to challenge providers when faced with closed doors.

9.14 Parents from hard-to-reach groups are less likely than others to be using formal
     childcare and in some cases are prevented from doing so by a lack of
     information. Their needs can only be met through information and advice being
     presented at an individual level by people that they know and trust. This
     suggests that a multi-agency approach is required with clear, concise
     information on signposting provided to all professionals working with families.

Time Gaps

9.15 Most childcare services in Gloucestershire are typical in meeting the needs of
     parents working standard hours. Day nurseries mainly open within the hours of
     7.30am to 6.30pm; out of school clubs operate mostly until 6pm and the
     majority of childminders accept children between 7am and 7pm.

9.16 With employment patterns in Gloucestershire resulting in many people
     travelling significant distances to work, there is considerable demand from
     parents for extended hours, and some mismatch between what is offered and
     what parents want. Where parents – and especially lone parents – need
     flexible care, there is an amount on offer through childminders. 14% of

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      childminders surveyed in February 2007 said that they were prepared to offer
      flexible hours dependent on parents needs.

9.17 Many parents will welcome the extension of the early education entitlement to
     15 hours and the ability to use this flexibly will make a big difference to many
     families. But many parents would like to be able to access local provision for
     young children that at least meets the times of the school day.

9.18 Parents of older children were concerned about a lack of holiday care for
     school-aged children during the summer and during other school holidays and
     school closure days.

Age Gaps

0 to 2 year olds

9.19 Childcare for children under 2 years of age is provided by childminders and day
     nurseries. Gloucestershire has a significant amount of provision that is
     registered and available for this age group but analysis of vacancies suggests
     that in some areas there is limited availability, particularly in day nurseries.
     Parents also highlighted the difficulty of accessing daycare for this age-group
     with little choice on offer due to a lack of capacity, and areas of the County
     where they have to travel some distance to access provision.

9.20 In specific areas, childminder places are at a premium, but it often depends on
     the quality and reputation of individual providers.

9.21 The number of vacant places for babies is very small across the County
     indicating unmet demand. However, changes to maternity entitlement may
     reduce demand and the effects of this should be examined before any
     significant expansion of provision takes place.

3 and 4 year olds

9.22 Childcare for 3 and 4 year olds includes both daycare, sessional care and
     wrap-around services for early education places.

9.23 Gloucestershire has a large amount of sessional care, compensating for that
     lack of maintained nursery education provision. Across the County there is
     theoretically sufficient provision, but in reality, some parents are not able to
     take up the current entitlement of free nursery education because of a lack of
     places. This seems to be a particular problem in Cheltenham and to a lesser
     extent, Gloucester.

9.24 In some rural areas such as the Forest of Dean, small pre-school settings in
     villages with fluctuating numbers of children present a precarious scene and

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                     Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

      provision could be easily lost that would be very difficult to replace. Across
      much of the County, the voluntary sector provides sessional care, but in many
      cases, voluntary managers neither have the skills nor the knowledge to
      effectively manage businesses that are having increasing legal and technical
      demands placed upon them.

5 to 11 year olds

9.25 Gloucestershire has higher than average levels of out of school care but with
     only 7 places for every 100 children in this age group, many do not have
     access to term-time out of school care. There are gaps in provision in many
     areas, but rural areas fair worse.

9.26 With even less holiday provision, it is not surprising that parents of school-aged
     children identified a lack of suitable holiday care as their number one childcare

12 to 18 year olds

9.27 There is no registered childcare provision in Gloucestershire that is specifically
     catering for children over the age of 11. There is no registered out of school
     childcare on secondary school sites that could be identified and none of the out
     of school providers surveyed in February 2007 had any children over the age of
     11 on their books.

9.28 Parents of children aged 11 to 13 identified a lack of appropriate care as a
     concern, with many working parents unhappy about children being left to go
     home alone at the end of the school day. Some Extended School services are
     beginning to bridge this gap, but increasingly parents would like the kind of
     service that they often have access to in primary schools to continue in the
     early years of secondary school.

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

10. Recommendations
In April 2008, Gloucestershire County Council will have a statutory duty to ensure the
sufficiency of early years education and childcare provision.

The authority will need to work with providers from the private, voluntary,
independent and maintained sectors, look to create a strong, sustainable and diverse
childcare market that meets the needs of parents. Maximising the benefit of finite
resources will be critical, therefore the support that the authority provides needs to be
clearly targeted to have the most effect.

In general, support to the early years and childcare sector needs to be prioritised
towards elements of the sector where market forces do not function. The Childcare
Sufficiency Assessment shows that in many areas, and for many families, childcare
exists that meets their needs. For families that are marginalised - either because of
where they live or because of their circumstances – childcare can be inaccessible.
This is where resources are required to be focused.

Childcare Gaps: Some areas suffer from a deficit of childcare despite having
populations that could sustain services through market forces. The role of the local
authority is to support the development of new childcare provision that fills these
gaps. In more deprived and in some rural areas, market forces are unlikely to sustain
services. Here, the Council should ensure that childcare provision, and support for
parents to access childcare is a priority within existing strategies such as Children’s
Centres – which will support access to childcare in the most deprived areas - and
Extended School Services - which should bridge some gaps in rural services and in
school-aged provision.

Childcare Information: Information is the key to enabling many marginalised
families to access childcare that can support work and training. Families do not just
need information about childcare to be able to access childcare. They often need a
wide range of advice that may include information about benefits; about training or
about transport. The most hard-to-reach families often are those who need most
information, but are least pro-active in seeking it. The local authority will need to
address these issues in developing its new children and family’s information service.

Early Years Education: Gloucestershire County Council already has a statutory
duty to ensure the availability of free early education for 3 and 4 year old children.
There are doubts as to whether the Authority is currently fulfilling this duty with
parents in some areas unable to access their full entitlement. The Council needs to
support the development of additional places in the specific areas identified in this
report. Of concern, is the vulnerability of much of the voluntary sector-led sessional
care provision in Gloucestershire. Demographic changes in rural areas can easily
result in these settings no longer being sustainable within the current funding
framework. With no alternative providers in most areas, their loss would make it

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                      Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

extremely challenging for the Authority to fulfil its statutory duty. The Council has an
important role in developing innovative solutions to this, including providing support
for the voluntary sector to establish more secure and sustainable structures to deliver
early years services.

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                        Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Appendix 1: Parent Consultation Framework

Thank you very much for agreeing to talk to me. I am a researcher/consultant and I’m doing
some work for Gloucestershire County Council’s Children and Young People’s Team. Myself
and a colleague are talking to parents, like yourselves, about your previous or current
childcare experiences and what your childcare needs will be in the future.
We are doing this because all Local Authorities in England have to do a report on whether
there is sufficient childcare in their area to meet the demands of parents.
Your opinions are important and will help to make sure the services you need are provided.
Firstly, would you mind filling in a childcare survey form? The information collected is
anonymous and no-one will be able to identify you or your response from it.
Q1 Do you know what types of childcare are available for families? (Assess level of
understanding and perceptions of each type of provision)
                •    Day Nurseries
                •    Childminders /
                •    Home based childcare
                •    Pre-school Playgroups
                •    OSC – Before, after & holiday
                •    Crèches
Q2 Do you know what is available to you in this area/your local area?
                •    Day Nurseries
                •    Childminders /
                •    Home based childcare
                •    Pre-school Playgroups
                •    OSC – Before, after & holiday
                •    Crèches
Q3 a) Are you using childcare at the moment? If so…….
Would you like to make any comments on the price . . .
Are the payment terms reasonable (e.g. paid retainer? weekly/monthly)?
Was it easy to get you child(ren) a place? For example, was there a waiting list?
Is your childcare available at the times/on the days you need it (particularly important for
parents working unusual hours)?
What do you think of the quality of care your child(ren) receive (Broken down into quality of
care and quality of early education/play opportunities)?

Are any of your children receiving free early years education at the moment?
If so, are you aware of flexible entitlement (when your child can go for 5 sessions over two
and a half days instead of five half days)?
Would you be interested in using this flexible entitlement if it was an option?
When you were looking for childcare what did you think about the level of choice that was
Did you feel there was enough information available to help you choose childcare?
Are you happy with the location?

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                          Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Q3 b) If you’re not using childcare, what are the barriers (if any)……
            •   Price
            •   Payment terms (e.g. paid retainer? weekly/monthly)
            •   Admissions policies
            •   Availability
            •   Quality
            •   Flexible Entitlement
            •   Choice
            •   Information
            •   Location
Q4 What do you think your childcare needs will be in the future (until your child is old
enough not to need care)?
            •   Day Nurseries
            •   Childminders / Home based carers
            •   Pre-school Playgroups
            •   OSC – Before, after & holiday
            •   Creche
When will you need it? (Times of day / days of week)
Where will you need it?
What support or information would you need to access childcare?
Does childcare exist that will meet your future needs?

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                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Childcare Survey
So that we can best meet the childcare needs of families in
Gloucestershire, please complete this form, providing as much
information as possible
All information is confidential and will not be passed to any third
party or used for marketing purposes.

Section 1: About you, your work and your family…
1. Are you responsible for the care of any children, as a parent or

                                             Number of                                                     Number of
                          Number of                                                 Number of
     Age Group                             children with a      Age Group                                children with a
                           children                                                  children
                                              disability                                                    disability
     0 to 1 year                                               5 to 11 years
       2 years                                                  12-14 years
       3 and 4
                                                                15+ years

2.   Are you bringing up children on your own?                Yes                 No

3.   Are you . . .                                             Female             Male

3. Please tick the boxes below that apply to you, if you work:

     I work full-time                                         I am self-employed

     I work part-time                                         I am a student

     I work shifts or unusual hours

4. Please tick the boxes below that apply to you if you do not currently work:
     I am on maternity / paternity leave                      I am taking a career break

     I have chosen not to work                                A lack of childcare makes work difficult

5. Please tick the boxes that apply to your partner, if they work:
     My partner works full-time                               My partner is self-employed

     My partner works part-time                               My partner is a student

     My partner works shifts or unusual hours

6. Are you in receipt of any of the following?
     Income Support                                              Lone Parent Income Support

     Incapacity Benefit                                          Job Seekers Allowance

     Working Tax Credit                                          Working Tax Credit Childcare Element

7. Within the following bands, what is the total amount of money coming into your household each month
   (after deductions)
     £500 or less                                                £501 - £1,000

     £1,001 - £1,750                                             £1,751- £2,750

     £2,751 - £4,000                                             £4,001 or more

                                                      Please turn over….

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                                   Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Section 2: About your childcare use and needs….
8. What are your current childcare arrangements? Please fill in number of days per week that you use
each type of care

Type of childcare                    No. of days per week         Type of childcare                  No. of days per

Day nursery                                                       Before or after-school care
Childminder                                                       Pre-School Playgroup
Registered Nanny/Home Carer                                       Crèche
Relative/ friend/ neighbour                                       Other (please specify)
School holiday playscheme

I have no childcare arrangements - my children are too old to require childcare any more
My partner / spouse cares for our children in our home

9. Please tell us how much you agree or disagree with the following statements:
                                                                        Strongly                                 Strongly
                                                                                      Disagree       Agree
                                                                        disagree                                  agree
I am very satisfied with my current childcare
There is a good choice of childcare locally for different age
The quality of childcare locally is high

Childcare is available where I need it

Childcare is available when I need it

I can afford to pay for the childcare that I need
Childcare is available that meets all of my children’s specific
I prefer to use family or friends to care for my children

10. What changes, if any, would you like to see in the provision of local childcare?

The following information will only be used for monitoring purposes:
11. What is your ethnic heritage (Please tick one box only)?

                        White British                            White Irish                              White Other
                                                       Mixed White & Black
   Mixed White & Black Caribbean                                                                 Mixed White & Asian
                                                      Asian or Asian British:                   Asian or Asian British:
           Other Mixed background
                                                                      Indian                                 Pakistani
              Asian or Asian British:                                                           Black or Black British:
                                                    Other Asian background
                        Bangladeshi                                                                         Caribbean
                                                      Black or Black British:
      Black or Black British: African                                                                         Chinese
                      Gypsy / Roma                   Any other ethnic group

12. What is your home postcode?

Thank you. We would like to contact a selection of parents to talk in more depth about your childcare
needs. If you are willing to be contacted, please leave your details below. Otherwise, all replies will be
treated anonymously.

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                         Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Appendix 2:

Childcare Provider Telephone Survey Script
Hello, my name is XXXX and I’m calling from Melyn Consulting on behalf of Gloucestershire
County Council.
We’re doing an Assessment of Childcare Sufficiency that the Council must complete to find
out whether there is enough childcare in the area and I’d like to spend a couple of minutes
talking with you about your childcare service?
Is this a convenient time to call?
    1. Are you currently childminding? (Childminders only)
    2. Do you know how many children in total, use your service (i.e. the number ‘on your
       books’ not your registered numbers)
                      Aged 2         Ages 3      Ages 5, 6      Aged 8, 9      Aged 11,   TOTAL
         Under 2
                                     and 4        and 7          and 10         12, 13
                                                                                and 14
            2a           2b           2c             2d             2e            2f       2g
    3. How many full-time vacancies do you currently have?
                      Aged 2         Ages 3      Ages 5, 6      Aged 8, 9      Aged 11,   TOTAL
         Under 2
                                     and 4        and 7          and 10         12, 13
                                                                                and 14
            3a           3b           3c             3d             3e            3f       3g
    4. How many part-time vacancies do you currently have?
                      Aged 2         Ages 3      Ages 5, 6      Aged 8, 9      Aged 11,   TOTAL
         Under 2
                                     and 4        and 7          and 10         12, 13
                                                                                and 14
            4a           4b           4c             4d             4e            4f       4g
    5. Can I just ask about the number of enquiries you get from parents? In the past year,
       have you had more enquiries, less enquiries, or have enquiries been about the same
       as previous years?
    6. Can you tell me how much you charge for a full-time place?
                      Aged 2         Ages 3      Ages 5, 6      Aged 8, 9      Aged 11,   TOTAL
         Under 2
                                     and 4        and 7          and 10         12, 13
                                                                                and 14
            6a           6b           6c             6d             6e            6f       6g
            -    converted to an hourly rate
    7. When do new customers have to pay their first bill (7a)?
            -    do you charge customers a deposit – if so, how much and is it refundable
    8. Do you have any children with disabilities or special needs currently using your
       service - if so what are their ages?
    9. Do you have any comments about the amount or types of childcare that’s available in
       your area?
    10. We’re also undertaking a survey to find out parents views on childcare issues. If we
        were to send you some survey forms, would you be willing to distribute them for us?
            -    if yes, take contact name and check address.
    Thank you for your help.

If you need to check my credentials, you can contact Gloucestershire Children’s Information
Service on 0800 542 02 02

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                             Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Appendix 3: Additional Childcare Places required to fill gaps based on average
levels of provision34
                                                                     Out of School
                    Extended Services Area               Daycare                   Holiday Care
                    Bartongate&Finlay                       113             6              0
                    Beacon Stow                               0            29             41
                    Bisley & Eastcombe                       86            0              18
                    Brockworth                                0            48              1
                    Cainscross                               65            20             62
                    Cam & Dursley                            78             0              0
                    Cam & Dursley Outreach                   44             0             23
                    Charlton Kings                            0             0              0
                    Churchdown & Innsworth                   63             0             70
                    Cinderford                               84            48             55
                    Cirencester                               0            24              0
                    Cleeve Catchment                          0             0              0
                    Coleford                                 38            21              0
                    ConeyHill&Robinswood                    316            4              29
                    Eastcombe                                32            35             38
                    Elmbridge & Longlevens                    0             0              0
                    Gardeners Lane                            0             0              0
                    Hesters Way                             125             0              0
                    Kingsholm                                 0             0              0
                    Leckhampton                               0            44              0
                    Linden                                   96             0              0
                    Lydney                                  159            42             75
                    Lydney Outreach                          10            31             59
                    Mitcheldean & Drybrook                    0            30             57
                    Nailsworth                                6            36             18
                    Newent Central                            0             0             29
                    Northleach                              129            62             66
                    Northleach Outreach Fairford Area         0             0              0
                    Oakley                                    0            42              0
                    Podsmead                                  1            32             37
                    Quedgeley & Hardwicke Area              112             0              0
                    Rowanfield                               28            50             54
                    Stonehouse                                0             0              0
                    Stow Outreach Chipping Campden            0             0              0
                    Stroud Central                            1            46             45
                    Tetbury                                  25             0              0
                    Tewkesbury Northway                       0             0              0
                    Tewkesbury Town Priors Park             125             9             65
                    Up Hatherley & Warden Hill               28             0              0
                    Winchcombe                                0            15             18
                    Wotton                                   34             0             23

  Calculations based on number of childcare places per 100 children in the local population against the
Gloucestershire average for the care type.

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                               Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Appendix 4: Childcare Sufficiency Index Data

                                                    % of     % of children Proportion of
                                     Children                                            Childcare FT Rurality     Area
                                                 children in   living in    children in
         Catchment Name             Population                                            Occupancy (1= Glos     childcare   Index
                                                 working LP    working      households
                                     Density                                                 Rate     Average)     Gap
                                                 households households claiming WTC

Bartongate&Finlay                     23.65         41%          67%          32%           97%         1.2        119        7.1
Beacon Stow                           16.49         64%          91%          23%           87%         0.9         70        6.9
Bisley & Eastcombe                    16.77         61%          94%          23%           80%         0.8        104        6.8
Brockworth                            19.48         49%          80%          21%           97%         1.1         49        6.8
Cainscross                            20.55         58%          87%          23%           88%         1.2        147        7.2
Cam & Dursley                         19.63         52%          86%          19%           88%         1.1         78        6.8
Cam & Dursley Outreach                18.23         43%          89%          21%           45%         0.8         67        6.0
Charlton Kings                        18.33         67%          94%          16%           86%         1.2         0         7.1
Churchdown & Innsworth                20.28         55%          86%          18%           94%         1.1        133        6.9
Cinderford                            19.70         51%          84%          25%           78%         1.0        187        6.8
Cirencester                           19.19         54%          88%          21%           83%         1.0         24        6.8
Cleeve Catchment                      17.83         67%          91%          22%           98%         1.1         0         7.3
Coleford                              18.69         50%          84%          26%           94%         1.0         59        6.9
ConeyHill&Robinswood                  21.15         55%          84%          22%           95%         1.2        350        7.2
Eastcombe                             20.42         81%          95%          20%           98%         0.9        105        7.5
Elmbridge & Longlevens                19.56         69%          92%          19%           82%         1.2         0         7.2
Gardeners Lane                        15.11         42%          81%          23%           89%         1.2         0         6.6
Hesters Way                           22.14         40%          68%          28%           85%         1.2        125        6.8
Kingsholm                             13.24         51%          81%          24%           91%         1.1         0         6.5
Leckhampton                           16.56         61%          91%          20%           96%         1.1         44        7.0
Linden                                21.83         46%          76%          27%           96%         1.2         96        7.1
Lydney                                20.43         53%          86%          23%           96%         0.9        275        6.9
Lydney Outreach                       18.33         58%          90%          23%           86%         0.9        100        6.8
Mitcheldean & Drybrook                18.95         53%          85%          24%           77%         0.9         88        6.7
Nailsworth                            18.10         63%          91%          26%           95%         1.0         59        7.3
Newent Central                        17.54         63%          91%          25%           87%         0.8         29        7.0
Northleach                            17.64         56%          92%          28%          100%         0.8        257        7.1
Northleach Outreach Fairford Area     19.56         56%          92%          21%           93%         0.8         0         6.9
Oakley                                17.95         48%          83%          25%           94%         1.2         42        7.0
Podsmead                              18.65         50%          79%          24%           74%         1.2         70        6.8
Quedgeley & Hardwicke Area            23.79         66%          91%          19%           99%         1.1        112        7.5
Rowanfield                            22.07         39%          74%          29%           85%         1.2        132        6.9
Stonehouse                            19.92         60%          89%          21%           98%         1.0         0         7.1
Stow Outreach Chipping Campden        16.55         66%          90%          23%           91%         0.9         0         6.9
Stroud Central                        20.47         51%          84%          23%           98%         1.2         92        7.1
Tetbury                               18.78         58%          91%          24%           78%         0.9         25        6.9
Tewkesbury Northway                   22.39         58%          86%          19%          100%         1.1         0         7.2
Tewkesbury Town Priors Park           16.65         51%          86%          24%           94%         1.0        200        6.8
Up Hatherley & Warden Hill            20.30         65%          92%          18%           99%         1.2         28        7.3
Winchcombe                            16.58         59%          92%          24%           54%         0.8         33        6.5
Wotton                                21.31         63%          92%          18%           95%         0.9         58        7.0
                                      19.14         54%          86%          23%           89%         0.0         82        0.0

    Index scores of higher than 7 indicate areas where unmet demand for childcare is
                                      likely to exist.

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                       Gloucestershire Childcare Sufficiency Assessment 121007

Appendix 5: Supply and Demand Analysis

                                      Early Years Care Supply      Out of School Care
               Area                                                                     Demand Level
                                               Level                 Supply Level

Bartongate&Finlay                               low                       high              high
Beacon Stow                                     high                      low               low
Bisley & Eastcombe                              low                       high              low
Brockworth                                      high                      low               low
Cainscross                                      low                       low               high
Cam & Dursley                                   low                       high              low
Cam & Dursley Outreach                          low                       high              low
Charlton Kings                                  high                      high              high
Churchdown & Innsworth                          low                       high              low
Cinderford                                      low                       low               low
Cirencester                                     high                      low               low
Cleeve Catchment                                high                      high              high
Coleford                                        low                       low               low
ConeyHill&Robinswood                            low                       high              high
Eastcombe                                       low                       low               high
Elmbridge & Longlevens                          high                      high              high
Gardeners Lane                                  high                      high              low
Hesters Way                                     low                       high              low
Kingsholm                                       high                      high              low
Leckhampton                                     high                      low               high
Linden                                          low                       high              high
Lydney                                          low                       low               low
Lydney Outreach                                 high                      low               low
Mitcheldean & Drybrook                          high                      low               low
Nailsworth                                      high                      low               high
Newent Central                                  high                      high              low
Northleach                                      low                       low               high
Northleach Outreach Fairford Area               high                      high              low
Oakley                                          high                      low               low
Podsmead                                        high                      low               low
Quedgeley & Hardwicke Area                      low                       high              high
Rowanfield                                      low                       low               low
Stonehouse                                      high                      high              high
Stow Outreach Chipping Campden                  high                      high              low
Stroud Central                                  high                      low               high
Tetbury                                         low                       high              low
Tewkesbury Northway                             high                      high              high
Tewkesbury Town Priors Park                     low                       high              low
Up Hatherley & Warden Hill                      low                       high              high
Winchcombe                                      high                      low               low
Wotton                                          low                       high              high

                                              Page 73

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