Modelling for London 2012 Olympics
Steve Miller Transport for London
Introduction
• Transport for London • The Railplan Model
• Olympics Demand • Stratford International Station
• Transport for London (TfL) is the integrated body responsible for London's transport system.
Transport for London
• Its role is:
– to implement the Mayor's Transport Strategy for London – manage the transport services across the capital for which the Mayor has responsibility.
• TfL manages:
– – – – – – London's Strategic Road Network London’s buses, The Underground (LUL), Docklands Light Railway (DLR) London Trams (Croydon Tramlink). London Riverboat Services
Public Transport Issues for London
Limited investment in new rail infrastructure
Limited potential to increase rail capacity “Sweat the Assets”; i.e.: • Spread the Peak (demand and supply)
• Increased crowding
The Railplan Model
• Runs on EMME/2 usually under UNIX
• AM Peak Crowded Transit Assignment model of London (Based on Congtras.mac)
– – – – – Underground Rail Tram Bus Docklands Light Rail (DLR)
The Railplan Model
• Uses Size 16 licence
• 1,500-3,000+ Zones • 50,000+ Links • Distribution-Mode Split model outside Railplan
Railplan Features
Developed since 1988 (Rel 3!)
Congestion on Route Choice Quantify social benefit of reduced crowding Forecast station flow patterns to aid station planning
The Railplan Model Dimensions
Demand
Year 2001 2011
Growth
Trips (3 Hrs) 1,836,318 2,195,962
2% p.a.
The Railplan Model Dimensions
Network (2001 Base)
No. Zones No. Nodes No. Links
No. Lines
1,571 14,648 49,596
1,836
No. Segments
84,225
Network Usage (2001 Base)
Mode Lines Serv. Kms Pass. Kms
N Rail Underground
Light Rail Tram
949 125
6 4
41,470 13,778
615 471
9,195,488 2,826,332
67,120 24,575
Bus
752
77,433
998,301
Olympics Demand
Could the system cope?
Olympics Demand
What about the P.M. Peak?
Creation of PM Model
Network
• “Flip” the A.M. lines in Excel Demand • Transpose the A.M. Demand; then
• Adjust to available count data
• Add Olympics Demand
PM Peak: Conclusions
• Total LUL trips in the PM peak is higher than the AM peak
• LUL trips in the peak direction in the PM is lower than the AM • National Rail boardings in the PM peak are generally lower than the AM peak by almost 20%
• Olympics demand could be managed easier than AM
Stratford Regional Station
Complexities
Serves:
• LUL Central Line
• LUL Jubilee Line (terminating) • Docklands Light Railway (terminating and through) • National Rail radial services (local and express) • National Rail orbital services
• International Station connection • Very major adjacent redevelopment
Station Layout
Demand matrix 2016 PM peak
Central line westbound - dispersal illustration B
Stratford Regional Station - Central Line Westbound passenger dispersal illustration 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000
Passenger arrival train capacity (10% full) Pax unable to board
Passengers
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
21:30
21:45
22:00
22:15
22:30
22:45
23:00
23:15
23:30
23:45
00:00
Hours (15 mins commencing)
00:15
Scheme Summary
Problem: Insufficient infrastructure connecting platforms Congested main concourse Segregation between main and Jubilee concourse Demand centrally located on platforms Key platform congestion: Platform 3/5 morning peak Platform 6/8 evening peak Central subway over utilised, low capacity Western subway under utilised, high capacity High interchange movements between and across platforms
Solution: Proposed reinstatement of Eastern subway Proposed New Northern Ticket Hall and Mezzanine concourse Improved vertical circulation and Mezzanine concourse Eastern subway Platform 3a and Eastern subway Platform 6/8 widening, Eastern subway & P6/8 Central subway staircase switch Eastern subway, Platform 3a and revised P12a/b Northern Ticket Hall connection to Western subway Platform 3a, widening of P6/8
Conclusions
• Olympics demand could be managed, assuming infrastructure required for “legacy” purposes was in place
• However, visitor management would be critical • Railplan assisted in confirming strategy, and providing data for station modelling.
www.tfl.gov.uk