China and the Olympics: Implications for Human Rights
Remarks to The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong
John Kamm The Dui Hua Foundation June 7, 2007
When Last We Met . . .
Source: International Herald Tribune, June 22, 2001
China’s Human Rights Diplomacy
Since 1990, Beijing has made human rights concessions to attain policy goals
Under Deng, to secure MFN and PNTR in US market Under Jiang, to enter WTO and improve US-China relations post 9/11 Under Hu, to deflect 2005 UN resolution on China human rights
Sometimes concessions not made, goals not met (not sole reason)
Under Jiang and Hu, none made to get EU arms embargo lifted Under Hu, none made for US visit in 2006
Concessions Made, Concessions Unmade
Examples of human rights concessions
Political prisoner releases Prisoner accounting HR dialogues and exchanges MOU with US on prison labor Increased access to detention centers, prisons Expert talks on VOA jamming Expert talks on parole for counterrevolutionaries Talks on Tibet with Dalai Lama representatives
Once goals reached, concessions often undone
Craner’s List
Political Prisoners on Craner List Political Prisoners not on Craner List
Released Early
Released at end of Sentence Sentence Reduction, Still in Prisoner No Reduction, Still in Prison
27 (45%) 15 (25%)
13 (14%) 36 (40%)
4 (7%)
13 (22%)
6 (7%)
33 (37%)
Died in Prison Total
Source: Dui Hua Prisoner Database
1) 2) 3)
4)
1 (2%) 60
1 (1%) 89
Prisoners as of September 30, 2001; status as of August 1, 2006. Facilities are prisoners and RTL camps, not detention centers. Political crimes covered are counterrevolution, hooliganism, pre-97 state secrets, endangering state security, Article 300. All information from official Chinese government sources.
Playing the Game
China shows more attention to world opinion
Bans trade in transplanted organs Announces climate change plan Keeps ban on trade in tiger parts
Concessions must never undermine CCP rule De minimus: As few, as late as possible When goals met, concessions stop, backtracking begins
After 15 years of accepting prisoner lists, MOJ rejects Prison access for ICRC, promised in 1993, yet to happen
Prison Law passed after ICRC access promise Ministries want own HR programs not organized by MFA
Even so, positive impact can last
Staging Successful Olympics Top Priority
Defining success as . . .
Most medals (and most gold medals) Showing off modern, high-tech infrastructure Promoting “peaceful rise,” “harmonious society” Avoiding or containing disruptions
1968 Mexico City (massacre, “Black Power” protests) 1972 Munich (killing of Israeli athletes) 1976 Montreal (financial mismanagement, bankruptcy) 1980 and 1984 Moscow and LA: boycotts More recent games plagued by doping scandals
History, though, not kind to Olympic hosts
China’s Biggest Problem: Poor Image
China unpopular with people of Olympic powers 1 China’s influence negative 46% vs. 35% positive 38% trust China vs. 58% who don’t 87% of Americans view Chinese govt negatively, but 2 79% of Americans view Chinese people positively Poor image will be exploited by pressure groups Could lead to low attendance, poor TV ratings
1. Note: Olympic powers are top ten medal winners in 2004, minus China. 2. Source: UPI/Zogby Poll, May 2007, 5,141 US adults (MOE 1.4%).
Do You Trust China to Act Responsibly?
United States 37% 58% 59% 39% 22% 76% 35% 56% 38% 61% 38% 58% Yes All Countries Average 38% 52% No
Australia
France
Russia
South Korea
Olympic Countries Average
Source: Polling of samples in 18 countries covering 56% of world population. Polls conducted from 6/2006 to 5/2007 by Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs.
Is China’s Influence in World Positive?
Yes No 59% 53% 48% 44% 38% 34% 31% 30% 43% 39% 32% 25% 32% 34% 35% 49% 46% 58%
United States
Russia
Australia
Germany
France
Italy
South Korea
United Kingdom
Average
Source: BBC Poll samples of varying size, conducted 11/2006 to 1/2007.
Reasons for Poor Image in West
Support for Sudanese government
Mia Farrow editorial, Hollywood joins in Tom Toles cartoon on “Genocide Olympics”
Publicized human rights abuses including
Internet censorship Jailing of journalists, human rights defenders Suppression of minorities in Tibet, Xinjiang Widespread use of capital punishment
Severe environmental degradation Trade policies threaten jobs, economic well-being
China and the Death Penalty
Source: Third World Congress against the Death Penalty.
What Could Go Wrong?
Conflict in Taiwan Straits Pollution affects health of athletes, performance Use of previously unknown performance enhancers Protests at home and abroad
Games could be magnet for “mass incidents” Torch run likely to face disruption 58% of Americans support using Games for protests 80% of Americans oppose Chinese crackdown
Threat of boycott low
78% of Americans oppose boycotting games 72% oppose boycotting sponsors’ products Support for boycott somewhat higher in Europe
True to Form
China has already made several concessions
Death penalty reform
“No executions in sports stadiums” Since Games awarded, executions have dropped by 40% Appointment of Special Envoy Support for limited sanctions Leaning on Sudan “behind the scenes”
Darfur
Revised regulations allow journalists more access
US public skeptical reforms will be permanent
Estimates of Executions in China
1997-2006
Year
1997 1998
Executions
12,000–15,000 12,000–15,000
1999
2000
12,000–15,000
12,000–15,000
2001 2002
2003
13,500 13,500
12,000
2004
2005 2006
10,000
8,000 7,500
In last 10 years, more than 100,000 people have been executed in China. Executions per year have dropped by 50% over the last 10 years.
Will Olympics Human Rights Reforms Last?
Other, 8.3% Yes, 3.8%
No, Only Temporary Gains, 41.3%
No Gains at All, 46.6%
Source: UPI/Zogby Poll, May 2007, 5,141 US adults (MOE 1.4%).
Will More Reforms be Introduced?
Reform of Reeducation, Criminal Procedure Law likely “Host City Contract:” visas for all who want to attend Hu Jintao constrained by two forces:
Personal
Hu criticized Jiang for “prisoner diplomacy” Hu has had bad experience with prisoner releases
17th Party Congress occupies leaders’ attention No time to appear soft on Western critics
Institutional
Some Suggestions for a Successful Olympics
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Support Darfur deployment of UN force, establish no fly zone Reduce executions by at least 50 percent, release statistics Reform Reeducation through Labor, ensure fair trial rights Ratify the ICCPR Normalize relations with Vatican Lift visa ban on blacklisted scholars, journalists Stop returning North Korean refugees to North Korea Allow Dalai Lama to see birthplace on personal visit Release remaining counterrevolutionaries Make peace with journalists (e.g. by releasing Ching Cheong)