Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project Proposal
Submitted to WWRP /WMO
Contributors : X.D. Yu (CMA/China), T. Keenan (BOM/Australia), P. Joe (MSC/Canada), J. Bally (BOM/Australia), P. Li (HKO/Hong Kong), Y.H. Kuo (NCAR/US), J. Wilson (NCAR/ US), A. Seed (BOM/Australia), K. Hondl (NSSL/US), Y.B.Wang(CMA/China), Y.C.Wang (CMA/China), B. Brown (NCAR/US), Q. Ye (NCAR/US).
Beijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 August
Beijing
Position: 39.6 ° N, 116.7 °E
Population: 16 Millions
Area: 16800 km2
Topography
Mountains located to the northeast, north and west. The southeast is a smooth plain sloping to the Bohai Bay
Venues
The locations and areas of competition for Beijing 2008 Olympics Games
Climate （August 8-24, 1980—2001）
Elements Average Temperature（℃） Value 25.2
Average Maximum. temperature （℃）
Extreme Maximum. temperature (℃) Average Minimum. temperature（℃） Extreme Minimum. temperature (℃) Average Relative humidity（%） Maximum Relative Humidity(%) Minimum Relative Humidity(%)
29.9
35.7 21.1 14.3 75 99 13
Average wind speed (m/s)
1.8
Precipitation probability（%） Thunderstorm probability（%）
49.2 25.9
2004/07/10
Torrential rain hits Beijing
Products
For local thunderstorms, 0-1h nowcast of time- and space-specific storm tracks, intensities, precipitation, and accompanying severe weather such as hails, wind gust, lightning and flash flooding are produced. Forecasts updated every 10 min. Resolution is better than 2km. For larger scale precipitation system, a mix of observation based method and NWP model is used to provide 0-6h forecasts of precipitation, and if possible, high wind, using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. For immediate storm environments, high resolution (1km) NWP model is used to provide 0-18h prediction of storm environments or directly the meso-ß scale weather systems, and associated precipitation, wind, etc
..
Emphasis
Emphasis is to be placed on 0-6 hour nowcasts with a particular interest on problems relevant to B08 including 0-1 hour thunderstorm forecasts and associated weather such as wind gust, precipitation, hail, etc...
Observationally based radar techniques will provide a primary input for the thunderstorm nowcasts (0-1h). High resolution NWP techniques that make use of mesoscale data sources and state-of-the-art assimilation procedures will be employed for the longer duration nowcasts (1-6h).
High resolution NWP will also be used to make 0-18h predictions of the immediate environments of thunderstorms. Probabilistic and deterministic approaches will be demonstrated.
Participating Systems
• Beijing-ANC (BMB/China and NCAR/US) • CARDS (Canada) • GRAPES (CAMS/China) • NIWOT(NCAR/US)
• STEPS (BOM/Australia)
• SWIRLS (HKO/HK/China) • TIFS (BOM/ Australia) • WDSS II (NSSL/US)
B08FDP Content
• Nowcasting
• FDP products dissemination • Verification
• Social and Economic Impacts Assessment
• Training
Data and Infrastructure Available
• Observational Network • NWP Models
Observational Network
Radar: Two in Beijing, four in surrounding areas Satellite: Chinese and Japanese, updated every 15min by 2008. Radiosonde: twice daily to four times daily. AWS: 80 now to 133 by 2008
Profiler: 3 by 2008
Ground-based GPS: 11 now, 14 by 2008. Lightening locating systems : 1 now
Doppler Weather Radar in Beijing and Surrounding Areas
Tianjin
Hefei
Installed in 1999
Installed in 2001
Tianjin: 2002/07/01 Supercell
with hails of 5cm diameter
7月1日19：01
7月1日19：01
7月1日19：01
Radiosonde Network in China
Beijing
Current observational network in Beijing area (2004)
Observational network in Beijing area by 2008
NWP models
NMC/CMA:
Global T213L31 BMB/CMA: WRF with 3D-VAR (resolution 1-3km)
6 Time Table
•2005.3.29-31: 1st Workshop of B08FDP, Beijing;
•2005.6: Draft implementation plan
•2005.9: Special Session on B08FDP during the Nowcast Technique Symposium, Toulouse; Paper at the meeting and SSC meeting in Toulouse
•2005 : Impact studies- Agreed Implementation plan ,Baseline data collection, (need a date for plan to be finished an agreed)
•2005 : Verification Studies- implementation plan(Need a date here for the final plan as above, draft verification plan had fall of 2005- I assume this is about October, 2005)
•2006: Train first line support •2006. 8: Preliminary System trials of nowcast FDP; •review workshop •review participant list
•2007.7: Training course for direct users of FDP products;
•2007. 8 Second round trials of nowcast FDP: Process testing and product generation; •review workshop •review participant list •2007.9: 2nd Workshop of B08FDP, Beijing; •2008.6-9: Formal B08FDP;
•2008: International training workshop on nowcast
•2009: 3rd Workshop of B08FDP, Beijing