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									  Risk-Based Management of
  Hurricane Preparedness and
Recovery for a Highway Agency
                           Presented to the
                Virginia Department of Transportation
                         Steering Committee
                                by the
                   Center for Risk Management of
                         Engineering Systems
                           March 19, 2001
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              1
          VDOT Steering Committee
              Virginia Department of Transportation
                                              Travis Bridewell
                                                 Mac Clarke
                                               Perry Cogburn
                                                Jon DuFresne
                                             Stephany Hanshaw
                                               Steve Mondul
                                                 Murali Rao
                                              Bob Rasmussen
                                               J.R. Robinson
                                               Gerald Venable
          Virginia Transportation Research Council
                                              Wayne Ferguson

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems     University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                2
                                     Stakeholders
Newport News Police                                 Virginia State Police
Virginia Beach Police                               VDOT Traffic Engineering
Norfolk Police                                      VDOT ITS
Franklin Police                                     Sentara Hospitals
Chester Police                                      Virginia Beach Fire
OBICI Hospital                                      Virginia Beach Office of
Red Cross                                             Emergency Management
Norfolk Emergency                                   Virginia Port Authority
   Operations Center                                Virginia Department of Rail
Virginia Department of                                and Public Transportation
   Emergency Services
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              3
                    University of Virginia
                                          Graduate Student
                                             Richard D. Moutoux
                                   Undergraduate Students
                                               Ryan M. Finseth
                                                Linn H. Koo
                                              Clare E. Patterson
                                             Timothy J. Zitkevitz
                                             Kenneth D. Peterson
                                                    Faculty
      James H. Lambert, Research Assistant Professor of Systems Engineering
       Yacov Y. Haimes, Quarles Professor of Systems and Civil Engineering
           Garrick E. Louis, Assistant Professor of Systems Engineering
            Project website: http://www.virginia.edu/~risk/recovery
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                  4
                            Progress Reviews
• Stakeholders workshop – February 28, 2000
• Hampton Roads Planning District
  Commission (HRPDC) – April 5, 2000
• Virginia Department of Emergency
  Management (VDEM) – October 6, 2000
• Steering committee – December 2, 1999
  and December 12, 2000
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              5
              Overview of Presentation
• Introduction
• Overview of approach
• Risk-based prioritization of recovery
• Decision support for resource allocation
• Agency coordination of recovery schedule
• Trade-off analysis of recovery and preparedness
  alternatives
• Equipment enhancement
• Use of hurricane forecasts
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              6
                                        Motivation
• Restore mobility as quickly as possible
• Currently no formal highway recovery
  methodology exists
• Justify aid from FEMA and FHWA
• Potential for $30-60 billion in losses for a
  category IV hitting Tidewater, Richmond,
  or Northern Virginia (Source: Post Hurricane
   Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute, 1997)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              7
                        Saffir-Simpson
                      Hurricane Categories
Category Winds (mph) Storm Surge   Damage
    1       74-95      4 - 5 feet   Minimal
    2      96-110      6 - 8 feet  Moderate
    3      111-130    9 - 12 feet  Extensive
    4      131-155    13-18 feet   Extreme
    5       >155       > 18 feet  Catastrophic



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              8
 U.S. Mainland Hurricane Strikes
    1900-1996 (NHC, 1999)
                                                    Category Number             All         Major
                      Area
                                               1      2     3   4      5     1,2,3,4,5      3,4,5
                      U.S. Texas to Maine      58    36 47 15          2       158           64
                      Texas                    12     9     9   6      0        36           15
                      Louisiana                8      5     8   3      1        25           12
                      Mississippi              1      1     5   0      1         8            6
                      Alabama                  4      1     5   0      0        10            5
                      Florida                  17    16 17      6      1        57           24
                      Georgia                  1      4     0   0      0         5            0
                      South Carolina           6      4     2   2      0        14            4
                      North Carolina           10     4    10   1      0        25           11
                      Virginia                 2      1     1   0      0         4            1
                      Maryland                 0      1     0   0      0         1            0
                      Delaware                 0      0     0   0      0         0            0
                      New Jersey               1      0     0   0      0         1            0
                      New York                 3      1     5   0      0         9            5
                      Connecticut              2      3     3   0      0         8            3
                      Rhode Island             0      2     3   0      0         5            3
                      Massachusetts            2      2     2   0      0         6            2
                      New Hampshire            1      1     0   0      0         2            0
                      Maine                    5      0     0   0      0         5            0


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems             University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                        9
                               Hurricane Floyd
• Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in mid-
  September, causing significant flood
  damage
• 56 deaths made Floyd the deadliest US
  hurricane since Agnes in 1972
• Roads did not receive much wind damage,
  but flooding closed many roads in Virginia
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              10
                 Hurricane Floyd (cont.)




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              11
                                      Project Goal
         The goal of the effort is to improve
    hurricane preparedness and recovery of the
       Virginia Department of Transportation
     through the identification of planning and
      management options and the assessment
       and evaluation of the associated costs,
                 benefits, and risks

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              12
        Task 1: Review of Literature and
       Formation of Advisory Committees
• Review and evaluation of past studies,
  theory and methodology, other agencies'
  experience, and databases
• Two advisory committees: (1) Steering
  Committee, consisting primarily of VDOT
  personnel; and (2) a Users' Group, made up
  of localities and other government agencies,
  e.g., emergency services.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              13
 Task 2. Extension of Prioritization Tool
            to GIS Platform
• Integrate the mapping of critical facilities
  with VDOT's capabilities for geographic
  information system (GIS)
• Work closely with the Transportation
  Information Management Steering
  Committee (TIMSC) and current managers
  of VDOT information systems, including
  GIS, to ensure compatibility.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              14
    Task 3. Incorporation of Localities and
         Additional Critical Facilities
•   Local jurisdictions
•   Intermodal connections (ports, airports, rail)
•   Number of people served
•   Logistic points (e.g., food warehouses,
    power generation facilities, water bottling
    plants, natural gas pipeline heads, collection
    and distribution points).
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              15
   Task 4. Use of Hurricane Forecasts for
            VDOT Operations
• National Hurricane Center and others
• The effort will demonstrate the efficacy of
  probabilistic hurricane forecasts in support
  of various VDOT planning and
  management functions.
• Capture the impacts of current decisions to
  future options
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              16
       Task 5. Modeling for Agency-Wide
          Preparedness and Recovery
• Hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM)
  will be used to classify overlapping and
  connected functions, divisions, and
  performance metrics
• Similar studies for the DoD, FBI, and
  PCCIP
• Foundation for resource allocation and
  coordination within and outside agency
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              17
     Task 6. Resources, Databases,
             and Software


    Task 7. Reports, Presentations,
            and Workshop
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              18
                   Overview of Approach




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              19
                        HHM for Preparedness
                             Hie rarchical Holographic M ode l for the Virginia Hurricane Pre pare dne ss Proje ct

                                                                                                                                    Human
         Type of          Source of        Temporal       Agencies &       Intra-Agency          Agency          Agency Action                      Spatial
                                                                                                                                  Dimensions
        Emergency          Impacts           Mode        Stakeholders          Units          Responsibility     Time Horizon                     Jurisdiction
                                                                                                                                  of Impacts


                                                                                                 Phy sical/
         Hurricanes         Wind          Preparedness       State         Administrativ e                          Hours        Demographics       Zipcode
                                                                                               Inf rastructure



           Snow          Precipitation     Response          Local          Engineering       Administrativ e        Day s          Dread            Ward



                           Surf ace
          Flooding                                          Federal          Financial           Lif elines         Weeks        Inconv enience    City /Town
                           Waters




        Earthquake      Soil/Geological                  Other States          Other              Utilities         Months       Neighborhoods      County



                                                            Non-
         Hurricanes       Biological                                                             Schools            Y ears           Other           State
                                                         Gov ernment



                                                                                                                                                  Multi-State
        Other Natural     Chemical                          Military                             Hospitals
                                                                                                                                                   Region



          Human         Conv entional
                                                             Media                            Police Stations                                        Other
         Accidental      Weapons



          Human                                                                                   Fire
                            Cy ber                       Priv ate Sector
         Deliberate                                                                            Departments



                                                                                              Social/Cultural
                                                                                                Centers


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                 20
                          Abbreviated HHM
                                                    Tropical
                 VDOT                                                                      Wind
                                                     Storm




                Other                               Hurricane
                                                                                           Rain
               agencies                               1, 2



                                                    Hurricane                             Storm
                                                     3, 4, 5                              Surge




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems          University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                     21
                            Organizational HHM                         Secretary of
                                                                      Transportation



                                                                      Commonwealth
                                                                    Transportaion Board



                                            Administrative           Commonwealth                Internal
                                              Assistant              Transportation                Audit
                                                                      Commisioner



                                                                        Deputy
                                                                     Commonwealth
                                                                     Transportation
                                                                     Commissioner



     Environment,          Chief            Assistant Commisioner                          Assistant Commissioner      Assistant Commissioner         Assistant Commissioner
Transportation Planning   Engineer              for Operations                                   for Finance              for Administration               for Research
 and Regulatory Affairs                                                                                                                                  and Technology



         Environmental      Location and                                                                    Fiscal            Human Resources                   Information
                              Design            Maintenance                   Bristol                                                                           Technology
                                                                              District
         Transportation     Structure and                                                         Financial Planning          Equal Opportunity               Transportation
            Planning            Bridge             Traffic                    Salem                                                                          Research Council
                                                 Engineering                  District
        Employee Safety     Right of Way                                                          Progamming and            Administrative Services               Data
          and Health        and Utilities        Equipment                   Lynchburg               Scheduling                                                Management
                                                                               District
                              Materials                                                                 Urban                 Fleet Management                   Inteligent
                                                  Culpeper                   Richmond                                                                          Transportation
                                                   District                   District
                            Construction                                                          Secondary Roads           Management Services
                                                  Staunton                    Suffolk
                                                   District                   District
                                                                                                                                Public Affairs
                                              Northern Virginia            Fredricksburg
                                                   District                   District


   Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                                22
                         Sample Trade-Off Analysis
                                             350,000
       Annual Cost of Upgrading Cantilever




                                             300,000

                                             250,000
                                                                                                                                   I
                    Signs ($)




                                             200,000                                                                               II
                                                                                                                                   III
                                             150,000                                                                               IV
                                                                                                                                   V
                                             100,000

                                              50,000

                                                  0
                                                       0%      10%          20%          30%                40%              50%
                                                            Percentage of Installed Cantilever Signs Damaged


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                  University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                         23
  Annual Investment ($1000)
                                   Trade-Off Analysis (cont.)
                              12
                                                                                                          Category 1
                              10                                                   Option3
                                                                                   Option2
                               8                                                   Option1                Category 2

                               6                                                                          Category 3
                                                                                   Status
                                                                                   Quo
                               4                                                                          Category 4
                               2
                                                                                                          Category 5
                               0
                                   0         10        20          30                       40
                                       Time to Recover Ground Signs (weeks)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems               University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                       24
         Risk-Based Prioritization of
                 Recovery



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              25
           Features of Priority Setting
• Importance of roads and intersections based
  on critical facilities and condition of road
  network
• Restoring or replacing damaged equipment
• Critical facilities are those necessary for a
  community’s well-being

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              26
Classification of Critical Facilities
                                                                     Critical Facilities


      Education         Government         Military         Emergency             Operations           Commerce          Communication       Transportation


       Public Schools      Post Offices     Coast Guard         Hospitals                  VDOT         Grocery Stores        TV Stations           Airports

                             City Hall          Navy          Fire Stations           Public Works          Malls           Radio Stations         Seaports
             Elem
                          Administration   National Guard    Police Stations               Utilities     Gas Stations         Phone Co.          Train Stations
             Middle
                           Courts/Jails         Army          Evac Shelters                             Comm. Centers                            Bus Stations
             High                                                                             Water
                           Special Fac.       Air Force      Rescue Squad
          Special Ed.                                                                         Power

          Colleges                                                                             Gas




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                  27
                             Critical Facilities




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              28
Geographic Information Systems
• Build on an existing GIS database of
  VDOT roads
• Network modeling used to create
  prioritization tool
• Using Microsoft Excel for optimization and
  user functionality

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              29
                      Electronic Road Map
• Two sources for electronic road maps
• VDOT’s “Network Level Basemap”
      – Used to establish road system from which
        network model will be created
• Census maps obtained from UVA Library
      – Used for geocoding addresses


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              30
             Example of Arcview Map
            Suffolk District                                                                        Eastern
                                                                                                     Shore
                                                    Williamsburg




                                                                                            Hampton
Emporia                                                                                      Roads

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                              31
              Facility Data Acquisition
• Worked with the Hampton Roads Planning
  District Commission to get data on
  locations of critical facilities
• Facility data also collected by geocoding
  addresses in Arcview
• Critical facilities stored by category and
  sub-category
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              32
        Norfolk Roads and Facilities




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              33
                                 Data Summary
• Data gathered includes critical facilities,
  population, highway mileage, and
  connections
• Data is imported into Excel using a grid
  system
• Data is used to create a prioritization model
  in Excel
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              34
                         Excel Grid Method
• Microsoft Excel is used for the
  prioritization model
• A map is in the background of a spreadsheet
  for spatial reference
• In addition to being much easier for VDOT
  to use, the spreadsheet format makes
  modeling straightforward
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              35
           Sample Excel Grid Method




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              36
                                   Arcview Grid




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              37
                    Prioritization in Excel
• Spreadsheet layers contain facilities, road
  mileage, population, etc.
• Priority metrics are calculated across the
  grid
• Priorities are reflected by color-coding grid
  elements


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              38
Sample Categorical Prioritization




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              39
                             Decision Criteria
• The following types of data can be used for
  spreadsheet prioritization:
      – Population
      – Roadway mileage by road type (Interstate, US
        highway, or primary route) – three different
        measurements
      – Critical facilities by category (eight categories)
• All combinations are possible
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              40
                      Sample Prioritization
• Sample model to demonstrate operation of
  prioritization tool:
    ( Emergency , Commercial , Operations, andMilitaryfacilities ) * ( Population)
                                                                                    Score
                                InterstateMileage



• Thousands of possible models to choose
  from and implement
• Remember to only change the yellow cells
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              41
                        Facilities and Roads




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              42
                      Summary Worksheet




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              43
                                 Sample Output




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              44
   Local and Region-wide Models




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              45
                         Temporal Priorities
• The model will prioritize recovery differently
  based on short, medium, and long-term goals
• Certain facilities are most important immediately
  after a disaster, and others are needed further
  down the road
• Since the Excel model includes data for all
  categories of facilities, roads, and population,
  these changes will be simple to implement
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              46
                  Phases of Preparedness
                              Recovery of Highway Network


     Short Term                            Medium Term                           Long Term
    Days - Weeks                          Weeks - Months                        Months - Years


             Emergency                              Transportation                         Government

             Operations                                Military                               Education




                                                                                                    ….
                       ….




                                                     Commerce
                                                          ….



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                          47
                     More Sample Models
           Time domain                              Example priority setting model


             Short-term             1) Emergency facilities * population / interstate mile
                                    2) (Ops. + Trans. + Mil.) / primary route mile
                                    3) Schools (Evac. Shelters) * population / interstate mile


           Medium-term              1) Schools * population / US highway mile
                                    2) (Comm. + Trans.) * population / primary route mile
                                    3) (Emerg. + Ops. + Mil.) * User Input [damage
                                               indicator]

             Long-term              1) Commercial * population / primary route mile
                                    2) (All facilities) * population / User Input [recovery
                                                cost]
                                    3) (All facilities) * population / secondary mile

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                    48
                                                Task 5


                 Analysis of Intra-VDOT and
                   Inter-Agency Delays in
                     Hurricane Recovery


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              49
                                              Purpose

        To better manage intra and inter-agency
               delays in hurricane recovery




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              50
                                        Motivation
• Need for systematic reporting of delay
  conditions
• Need for identification of organizational
  units within VDOT involved in delays
• Need for agency coordination to reduce the
  overall time to recovery

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              51
                                Data Collection
• Interviews of Virginia, California,
  Florida, North Carolina, and South
  Carolina agencies involved in the
  recovery process
• Identifying the situations in which
  agencies are dependent upon the DOT
  and vice versa
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              52
                   Data Collection (cont.)
• Meeting with Susan Maddox Toth of
  VDOT’s EOC in Fall 2000
• Liaison with VDEM in Fall 2000, who
  are making similar efforts
• Past report by UVa/VTRC regarding a
  specific delay
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              53
                    Sample of Virginia Agencies and Organizations Contacted
Name of Agency/Organization Type Name & Title of Contact Phone Num. Fax Num.                                       Email              Reply

FIRE:
Dept. of Fire Programs                  Fire   Larry McAndrews              757-727-4700 757-727-4704                                  yes
:
EMERGENCY/RESCUE:
Dept. of Emergency Services            Emerg. T. Stewart Baker(ATTENDEE)   804-695-9506                                                no
                                              Jack Williamson,             757-269-2900 757-269-2905                                   no
                                                  Coord. Of Emerg. Manage.
:
HEALTH:
OBICI Hospital                         Health James/Randy Vick (ATTENDEE)   757-934-4945                       Rvick@obici.com         yes
Off. of Emergency Med. Serv.           Health Everette Vaughan              804-371-3500 804-371-3543      evaughan@vdh.state.va.us    yes
:
MILITARY:
Dept. of Military Affairs/Nat. Guard   Military Sgt. Major Parker,          804-292-8627                                               no
                                                           Emergency Center
:
POLICE:
Dept. of State Pol., Ches., 5th Div.   Police Lieut. Andrew Engemann(ATT) 757-424-6836 757-424-6732                                  yes
Newport News Police                    Police Chief Dennis Mook,             757-926-8461 757-926-2374 chfoff@ci.newport-news.va.us no
                                                             Chief of Police
                                              Capt. Thomas Bennett,                                   tbennett@ci.newport-news.va.us yes
                                                 North Precinct Commander
:
TRANSPORTATION:
Dept. of Aviation                      Trans. Keith McCray                  804-236-3625                                               yes
:
UTILITY:
VA Power Company                       Utility Charles Taylor               757-857-2367 757-857-2677                                  yes
:
MISCELLANEOUS:
Dept. of Business Assistance           Misc. Rob Blackmore                 804-371-8260              rblackmore@dba.state.va.us        yes
Hampton Roads Plan. Dist. Comm.        Misc. Gary Schuchardt,              757-420-8300 757-523-4881     gschucha@hrpdc.org            yes
                                             Reg. Emerg. Services Planner
VA Port Authority                      Misc. Rick Napp,                    757-440-7207                                                yes
                                                 Hurricane Procedures Unit
                                             Donald Boyd (ATTENDEE)        757-683-2190                   Dboyd@vpa.vit.org            yes
:

                                                *Stakeholder Workshop Attendee

    Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                              54
  Outline of Interviews with DOTs and
                Agencies
1. What are the cases in which your agency waited
   on the DOT to be able to start a recovery
   activity? What are the cases in which the DOT
   was waiting on your agency? (For example,
   authorization, materials, personnel, equipment,
   etc.)
2. If not in the past, can you see your agency
   waiting on the DOT or the DOT waiting on your
   agency for a recovery activity in the future?
   Under what circumstances?
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              55
Outline of Interviews with DOTs
      and Agencies (cont.)
3. Is there anything the DOT could have
   done to better minimize the delay of
   recovery? Does your agency have any
   suggestions for improvement?

4. Is there a particular system or geographic
   area with which your agency is concerned
   for the recovery?
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              56
            Sample of Delay Scenarios




                                                                                                         Office of Emergency Medical Services




                                                                                                                                                                                      Dept. of Mines, Minerals and Energy
                                                                                                                                                Dept. of Conservation & Recreation
                                                    Henrico County Division of Fire
                       OTHER AGENCIES




                                                                                        OBICI Hospital
                               VDOT
                      Administration
                      Environment, Transportation
                      Planning,& Regulatory Aff.
                      Equipment                     DS2
                      Finance
                      Information Management                                          DS4,DS5 DS7,DS8                                                                                DS10
                      Legal / Authorization
                      Materials                     DS1
                      Operations
                      Personnel                     DS3
                      Structure and Bridge                                                               DS6                                    DS9

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                           University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            57
       Sample of Delay Scenarios (cont.)
  The following are the delay scenario descriptions that are indicated in the table
  above:
  DS1: A potential delay could take place between the time
  when the Henrico County Division of Fire requests
  materials over the phone from VDOT such as sand bags
  and the time when they actually receive it.
  (R. C. Dawson, Jr., Deputy Fire Chief, Henrico County Division of Fire, Oct. 9, 2000)

  DS2: A potential delay could take place between the time
  when the Henrico County Division of Fire requests
  equipment over the phone from VDOT such as traffic
  barricades and the time when they actually receive it.
  (R. C. Dawson, Jr., Deputy Fire Chief, Henrico County Division of Fire, Oct. 9, 2000)

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems     University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                58
       Sample of Data Collection (cont.)

DS3: A potential delay could take place between Henrico
County Division of Fire if there is an inadequate number of
on-call personnel at VDOT during emergency response.
(R. C. Dawson, Jr., Deputy Fire Chief, Henrico County Division of Fire, Oct. 9, 2000)


DS4: Obici Hospital had to wait on VDOT for the
availability to current, updated road status and closure
information during the recovery of Hurricane Floyd.
(Randy Vick, Obici Hospital, Oct. 17, 2000)




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                               59
      Sample of Delay Scenarios (cont.)

DS5: Obici Hospital experienced delays during recovery
from Hurricane Floyd because the road status information
that was provided by VDOT was inaccurate.
(Randy Vick, Obici Hospital, Oct. 17, 2000)


DS6: The response of the Office of Emergency Medical
Services in the future to an isolated area could be delayed if
there is a road or bridge failure that is waiting to be repaired
by VDOT.
(C. Everette Vaughan, Jr., Director of Emergency Operations at the Office of Emergency Medical
Services, Oct. 9, 2000)



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                 60
      Sample of Delay Scenarios (cont.)

DS7: The Office of Emergency Medical Services had to wait
on VDOT for the availability to current, updated road status
information during the recovery of Hurricane Floyd.
(C. Everette Vaughan, Jr., Director of Emergency Operations at the Office of Emergency Medical
Services, Oct. 9, 2000)


DS8: The Office of Emergency Medical Services’ response
to Franklin, VA during the recovery from Hurricane Floyd
was delayed because the road status and closure information
provided by VDOT was inaccurate.
(C. Everette Vaughan, Jr., Director of Emergency Operations at the Office of Emergency Medical
Services, Oct. 9, 2000)

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                 61
      Sample of Delay Scenarios (cont.)

DS9: The Department of Conservation and Recreation could
potentially be waiting on VDOT in the future to make a
bridge or road passable.
(Corey Garyotis, Senior Floodplain Engineer, Department of Conservation and Recreation, Oct. 10,
2000)

DS10: VDOT could potentially be waiting on the
Department of Mines, Minerals, and Energy in the future to
provide geological information or information on where road
building materials can be found.
(Cheryl Cashman, Department of Mines, Minerals, and Energy, Oct. 20, 2000)




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                   62
Categorization of Collected Delay Scenarios by Organizational Unit Involved




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DS1     Sandbag Requests                   VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire       Local          Post   ST                      x
DS2     Barricade Requests                 VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire       Local          Post   ST       x
DS3     On-call Personnel                  VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire       Local          Post   ST                              x
DS4     Updated Road Status Info.          VA    Obici Hospital                Health      Local          Post   ST           x
DS5     Inaccurate Road Information        VA    Obici Hospital                Health      Local          Post   ST           x
DS6     Bridge Failure                     VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health      State          Post   MT                                  x
DS7     Available Road Status Info.        VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health      State          Post   ST           x
DS8     Inaccurate Road Information        VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health      State          Post   ST           x
DS9     Road Access                        VA    Dept. of Conserv. and Rec.    Envir.      State          Post   MT                                  x
DS10    Geological Information             VA    Dept. of Mines,Min.,Energy    Envir.      State          Post   LT           x


DS11    Road Access                 CA           Dept. of Health Services  Health State Post                     ST                          x
DS12    Long Term Road Access       CA           Hall Ambulances           Health Local Post                     LT                                  x
DS13    Road Access & Authorization CA           Glen.-Cres.Vall. Redcross Health Local Post                     ST                          x
DS14    Convoy Use                  CA           CA National Guard         Military State Post                   ST                          x
DS15    Road Repairs                CA           Roseville Transit         Trans. Local Post                     LT                                  x
DS16    Road Access and Information CA           Dept. of Water Resources Envir. State Post                      ST                          x


DS17    Transmitter Sites                  SC    SCANA Communications Comm. State Post ST                                                    x
DS18    Crawler Tractor Use                NC    Div. Of Forest Resources  Envir. Region. Post ST                                    x
DS19    Road, Bridge, and Flood Info.      NC    Amat. Radio Emerg. Serv. Comm. Region. Post ST                               x
DS20    Obtaining Environ. Permits         NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post LT                                      x
DS21    Sandbag Debris                     NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post LT                                              x
DS22    Coastal Inlet Stabilization        NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post MT                       x
DS23    Environmental Violations           NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post MT                               x
DS24    Resource Depletion                 NC    Franklin Co. Em. Manage. Emerg. Local Post ST                                                   x
DS25    Deadstock Removal                  NC    NC Extension Service     Volun. State Post MT                                               x




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                          University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                         63
Categorization of Collected Delay Scenarios by Organizational Unit Involved




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DS26 Detour Information                  NC    Local Emergency Services     Emerg.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS27 Chainsaw Crews                      NC    Dept. of Natural Resources    Envir.     State          Post   ST                         x
DS28 Conflicting Road Information        NC    NC State Highway Patrol      Police      State          Post   ST                 x
DS29 Fund Reimbursements                 NC    FEMA                         Emerg.      State          Post   LT             x


DS30 Ineffective Equipment               NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST         x
DS31 Relocated Personnel                 NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                             x
DS32 Equipment Distribution              NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST         x
DS33 Undefined Roles                     NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST x
DS34 Excessive Workloads                 NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   LT x
DS35 Structure Repairs                   NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   MT                         x
DS36 Insufficient Traffic Manage.        NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS37 Fuel Confusion                      NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS38 Conference Calls                    NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   MT x
DS39 Email Communication                 NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   MT                 x
DS40 Unconfirmed Equipment               NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS41 Road Closure Reports                NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                         x
DS42 Restricted Access                   NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST     x
DS43 Inconsistent Barricades             NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST         x
DS44 Refueling                           NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                     x
DS45 Restricted Communication            NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS46 HazMat Information                  NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   ST                 x
DS47 Disposal Sites                      NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   MT                         x
DS48 Processing Reimbursements           NC    NC DOT                       Trans.      State          Post   LT             x




 Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                      University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                 64
 Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated
With Each Organizational Unit Within VA, CA, NC,
              and SC State DOTs
                                                                      Number         Percent
                         Unit Type                                    of Cases       of Total
                         Administration                                     3            6.2
                         Environmental, Regulatory Affairs                  2            4.2
                         Equipment                                          4            8.3
                         Finance                                            2            4.2
                         Information Management                            15            31.3
                         Legal / Authorization                              2            4.2
                         Materials                                          2            4.2
                         Operations                                        11            22.9
                         Personnel                                          3            6.2
                         Structure                                          4            8.3

                         Total                                             48            100

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems            University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                       65
 Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated
With Each Organizational Unit Within VA, CA, NC,
              and SC State DOTs
                      16
                      14
                      12
                      10
                       8
                       6
                       4
                       2
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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              66
Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated
With Each Organizational Unit Within VDOT Only

                                                                       Number         Percent
                       Unit Type                                       of Cases       of Total
                       Administration                                        0             0.0
                       Environmental, Regulatory Affairs                     0             0.0
                       Equipment                                             1            10.0
                       Finance                                               0             0.0
                       Information Management                                5            50.0
                       Legal / Authorization                                 0             0.0
                       Materials                                             1            10.0
                       Operations                                            0             0.0
                       Personnel                                             1            10.0
                       Structure                                             2            20.0

                       Total                                                10            100


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems          University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                     67
Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated
With Each Organizational Unit Within VDOT Only

          6

          5

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          3

          2

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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                          68
                       Summary of Results
• Operations and information management
  units are involved with over half of the total
  number of collected delay scenarios from
  each state
• Half of the delay scenarios collected from
  Virginia agencies involve VDOT’s
  information management unit
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              69
Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated With
Each Type of Involved Agency From VA, CA, NC, and
                                                         SC
             10

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Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                           70
                       Summary of Results
• Environmental and health agencies are
  involved with over 35% of the total number
  of collected delay scenarios from each state




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              71
Categorization of Delay Scenarios by Pair of Organizational Units Involved




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DS1      Sandbag Requests                   VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire        Local         Post   ST




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DS2      Barricade Requests                 VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire        Local         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                 x



                                                                                                                                     t
DS3      On-call Personnel                  VA    Henrico Co. Div. Of Fire       Fire        Local         Post   ST




                                                                                                                       t




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DS4      Updated Road Status Info.          VA    Obici Hospital                Health       Local         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                     x x




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DS5      Inaccurate Road Information        VA    Obici Hospital                Health       Local         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                   t
DS6      Bridge Failure                     VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health       State         Post   MT




                                                                                                                                                   t



                                                                                                                                                               x
DS7      Available Road Status Info.        VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                     x x




                                                                                                                                                   t
DS8      Inaccurate Road Information        VA    Office of Emerg. Med. Serv.   Health       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                   t
DS9      Road Access                        VA    Dept. of Conserv. and Rec.    Envir.       State         Post   MT




                                                                                                                                                   t



                                                                                                                                                               x
DS10     Geological Information             VA    Dept. of Mines,Min.,Energy    Envir.       State         Post   LT




                                                                                                                                     x



                                                                                                                                               t
DS11     Road Access                 CA           Dept. of Health Services  Health State Post                     ST




                                                                                                                                                   x t



                                                                                                                                                               t
DS12     Long Term Road Access       CA           Hall Ambulances           Health Local Post                     LT




                                                                                                                                                               x
DS13     Road Access & Authorization CA           Glen.-Cres.Vall. Redcross Health Local Post                     ST




                                                                                                                                           t



                                                                                                                                                   x x t
DS14     Convoy Use                  CA           CA National Guard         Military State Post                   ST




                                                                                                                                                               t
DS15     Road Repairs                CA           Roseville Transit         Trans. Local Post                     LT




                                                                                                                                                               x
DS16     Road Access and Information CA           Dept. of Water Resources Envir. State Post                      ST




                                                                                                                                     t




                                                                                                                                                   x
DS17     Transmitter Sites                  SC    SCANA Communications Comm. State Post ST




                                                                                                                                                   x



                                                                                                                                                               t
DS18     Crawler Tractor Use                NC    Div. Of Forest Resources  Envir. Region. Post ST




                                                                                                                                 t




                                                                                                                                           x
DS19     Road, Bridge, and Flood Info.      NC    Amat. Radio Emerg. Serv. Comm. Region. Post ST




                                                                                                                                     x




                                                                                                                                                   t
DS20     Obtaining Environ. Permits         NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post LT




                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                           x
DS21     Sandbag Debris                     NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post LT




                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                                   x t
DS22     Coastal Inlet Stabilization        NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post MT




                                                                                                                           x t
DS23     Environmental Violations           NC    Div. Of Coastal Manage.   Envir. State Post MT




                                                                                                                                     x
DS24     Resource Depletion                 NC    Franklin Co. Em. Manage. Emerg. Local Post ST
                                                                                                                       t




                                                                                                                                                           x
DS25     Deadstock Removal                  NC    NC Extension Service     Volun. State Post MT




                                                                                                                                                   x



                                                                                                                                                               t
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                           University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                   72
  Categorization of Delay Scenarios by Pair of Organizational Units Involved




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DS26    Detour Information                 NC    Local Emergency Services     Emerg.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                         x t




                                                                                                                                                         t
DS27    Chainsaw Crews                     NC    Dept. of Natural Resources    Envir.      State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                         x t
DS28    Conflicting Road Information       NC    NC State Highway Patrol      Police       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                         x
DS29    Fund Reimbursements                NC    FEMA                         Emerg.       State         Post   LT




                                                                                                                     t




                                                                                                                                     x
DS30    Ineffective Equipment              NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                           t

                                                                                                                                 x
DS31    Relocated Personnel                NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                                               x
DS32    Equipment Distribution             NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                 x



                                                                                                                                         t
DS33    Undefined Roles                    NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                     x x




                                                                                                                                         t
DS34    Excessive Workloads                NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   LT




                                                                                                                                                         t
DS35    Structure Repairs                  NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   MT




                                                                                                                                                         x t



                                                                                                                                                                   t
DS36    Insufficient Traffic Manage.       NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                         x x t
DS37    Fuel Confusion                     NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                         t
DS38    Conference Calls                   NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   MT




                                                                                                                     x
DS39    Email Communication                NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   MT




                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                         x x
DS40    Unconfirmed Equipment              NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                 t
DS41    Road Closure Reports               NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                         x

                                                                                                                                                               t
DS42    Restricted Access                  NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                           x t




                                                                                                                                                               t
DS43    Inconsistent Barricades            NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                 x
DS44    Refueling                          NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                     x

                                                                                                                                                         t
DS45    Restricted Communication           NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                         x x
DS46    HazMat Information                 NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   ST




                                                                                                                                                 t
DS47    Disposal Sites                     NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   MT


                                                                                                                           t




                                                                                                                                                         x
DS48    Processing Reimbursements          NC    NC DOT                       Trans.       State         Post   LT   t




                                                                                                                                     x
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                       73
  Key For Denoting Pairs of VA, CA, and
    NC DOT Units Involved in Delays



Administration             Ad-Env Ad-Eq Ad-Fin Ad-Info Ad-Leg Ad-Mat Ad-Op Ad-Per Ad-Str
Env., Reg. Aff.                   Env-Eq Env-Fin Env-InfoEnv-LegEnv-Mat Env-OpEnv-Per Env-Str
Equipment                                Eq-Fin Eq-Info Eq-Leg Eq-Mat Eq-Op Eq-Per Eq-Str
Finance                                          Fin-Info Fin-Leg Fin-Mat Fin-Op Fin-Per Fin-Str
Info. Manage.                                             Info-LegInfo-Mat Info-Op Info-Per Info-Str
Legal/ Auth.                                                      Leg-Mat Leg-OpLeg-Per Leg-Str
Materials                                                                 Mat-Op Mat-Per Mat-Str
Operations                                                                         Op-Per Op-Str
Personnel                                                                                   Per-Str
Structure
  Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems        University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                       74
 Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated
  With Each Pair of Organizational Units Within
        VA, CA, NC, and SC State DOTs



Administration                                   2   2                              1          2
Env., Reg. Aff.                        2             3       1                      3          2
Equipment                                            3       1
Finance
Info. Manage.                                                1          2          11
Legal/ Auth.                                                                       1
Materials                                                                          1
Operations                                                                                     1   9
Personnel
Structure

 Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                       75
 Number of Collected Delay Scenarios Associated with Each Pair of
              Organizational Units within the DOT
                                                                           Number Percent
                Pairs of Units                                             of Cases of Total
                Information Management - Operations                           11.0     22.9
                Operations - Structure                                         9.0     18.8
                Environmental, Regulatory Affairs - Information Management     3.0      1.4
                Environmental, Regulatory Affairs - Operations                 3.0      6.3
                Equipment - Information Management                             3.0      6.3
                Information Management - Materials                             2.0      4.2
                Administration - Personnel                                     2.0      4.2
                Environmental, Regulatory Affairs - Equipment                  2.0      4.2
                Environmental, Regulatory Affairs - Personnel                  2.0      4.2
                Administration - Information Management                        2.0      4.2
                Administration - Finance                                       2.0      4.2
                Administration - Operations                                    1.0      2.1
                Environmental, Regulatory Affairs - Legal / Authorization      1.0      2.1
                Equipment - Legal / Authorization                              1.0      2.1
                Information Management - Legal / Authorization                 1.0      2.1
                Legal / Authorization - Operations                             1.0      2.1
                Materials - Operations                                         1.0      2.1
                Operations - Personnel                                         1.0      2.1
                Total                                                          48      100
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems    University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                               76
   Number of Collected Delay Scenarios
 Associated with Each Pair of Organizational
            Units within the DOT
     12

     10

      8

      6

      4

      2

      0
     Ad at




   En -Op
   In Info




     Ad fo
   En -Eq




     Ad i n
   En -S tr




               r
    O p
     O p




     Ad er
     Eq p




    Eq eg
    En nfo




    Le eg
    En er




   In Leg


    M p

           Pe
           -O
          -O




             O




            O
         - In

          -F
         -M




           P
         -P




           L


        -L
           I
        v-




        g-
         v




       p-
       v-
         -
        p




       at
       fo


       v-




       v-

         -
      fo




     fo
 In




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              77
                       Summary of Results
• Interaction of information management and
  Operations units and interaction of
  Operations and Structure units are each
  associated with about 20% of total number
  of collected delays scenarios



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              78
   Importance of a Delay Scenario
   Indices                                        Low                      Moderate                    High
   Severity                                       Low                      Moderate                    High
   Involved Agencies                        No other agencies            Few agencies          Multiple agencies
                                                                    Has not occurred in the Has occurred in the
   Likelihood                               Unlikely to Occur
                                                                    past, but likely to occur past, likely to occur
   Items Waiting on (personnel,                     None                   One Item           Combination of many
   materials, equipment, authorization)
   Controllability                      Controllable at Low cost Controllable at High Cost                 Uncontrollable
   Cascading Effects                              None                      One                               Multiple
   Maturity                                      Mature                  Immature                         Highly Immature
   Number of Similar Scenarios                    None                      Few                                Many


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems               University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                            79
   Importance of a Delay Scenario

                                                    Measuring a Delay




   Severity     Involved       Likelihood       Items        Controllability     Cascading        Maturity   Prevalence
                Agencies                        Waiting                           Effects                    Of Similar
                                                On                                                           Scenarios




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                          80
                         Measuring Severity
The severity of the length of time of delay is specialized to
  the time horizon:
  - Short Term (hours, days),
  - Medium Term (days, weeks)
  - Long Term (months, years)
                                                                Horizon
      Length of Time of Delay                       Short Term Medium Term Long Term
               Hours                                 Moderate      Low        Low
               Days                                    High     Moderate      Low
              Weeks                                    High       High      Moderate
              Months                                   High       High       High
               Years                                   High       High       High

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                    81
      Importance of a Delay Scenario:
                 Example
• The Virginia Office of Emergency Medical
  Services waited on VDOT for the availability of
  current, updated road status information
    (C. Everette Vaughan, Jr., Director of Emergency Operations at the OEMS, Oct. 9, 2000)

                                                                                                   Number
          Involved                             Items                           Cascading
 Severity                    Likelihood                        Controllability           Maturity of Same
          Agencies                             Waiting On                      Effects
                                                                                                  Scenarios
 Hours in Few      Has occurred in
                                    Information                Controllable
 Short    other    the past, likely                                                   Multiple           Mature   Many
                                    Only                       at Low Cost
 Term     agencies to occur again
Moderate Moderate                High               Moderate          Low                High             Low     High



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems              University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                         82
   Importance of a Delay Scenario
 HIGH
    3




  MOD
    2



  LOW
    1
                 it y                   s                                                                  y               s                                    s
                                     cie                od                            n                lit               ct                 it y              io
               er                  n                  ho                          O                 bi                 fe                 ur                ar
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              v
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                                                                        tin
                                                                              g                  lla                 Ef                at                en
                               A                 ke                  ai                        ro                  g               M                   Sc
                           d                Li                                               t                   in
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                                                                 W
                                                                                          Con                  ad                              m
                                                                                                                                                   e
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                 In                                    I te
                                                            m                                            as                                  Sa
                                                                                                     C                                 of
                                                                                                                                  b er
                                                                                                                               Num

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                            University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                    83
                          Comparing Delays
                     3
                                                        3




                     2                                  2




                     1                                  1




                                                        3
                 3




                                                        2
                 2




                     1                                      1




                 3                                      3




                 2                                      2
                                      1




                 1                                      1




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              84
                                           Summary
• Delays can be identified and compared to
  aid in decision-making
• Interactions of organizational units in
  schedule delays can be identified
• “Sizable” delays suggest improvements that
  should be made
• Reduction of delays decreases overall time
  to recovery
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              85
                          Recommendations
                                  Schedule Delays
• Enhance VOIS system to increase the
  sharing of information and ensure real-time
  road status information
• Common radio system
• Truck-to-truck communication
• Partnering residencies from areas of state
  that are less likely to be affected by disaster
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              86
                           Recommendations
                       Schedule Delays (cont.)
• Field unit and EOC coordination for
  prioritizing tasks
• Equipment standardization
• Consider lane reversal plan for evacuation
• Consider including reimbursement forms in
  VOIS to allow for continuous filling out and
  processing
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              87
     Decision Support for Resource
    Allocation for Hurricane Recovery



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              88
                                           Objective

       To develop a methodology to support in
     decision-making for resource allocation for
      highway recovery from a natural disaster.




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              89
                                        Motivation
• Hurricane Floyd struck Virginia in
  September 1999 and resulted in severe
  damage from flooding
• Over 100,000 phone calls to Emergency
  Operations Center
• Large scale of disaster makes it difficult to
  appreciate where the resources are going
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              90
         Factors Impacting Resource
                  Allocation
• Compare recovery projects against multiple
  criteria in order to offer an idea of priority
  of the projects
• Some performance criteria
      – Risk reduction
      – Performance gain
      – Resources
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              91
      Hurricane Floyd (Case Study)
• Case study performed using data from
  Hurricane Floyd recovery supplied by
  VDOT
• Data includes statistics from 39
  counties/cities and 15 types of
  recovery/preparedness activities
• Data provided by Perry Cogburn, 2000.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              92
                                Data Collection
        County/City         Type of Improvement          Total Cost       Interstate Primary Secondary

        Greensville         Slope failure & protective          13830                2           0       0
                            Slope failure & debris              98875                0           4       0
                            Debris removal                      44346                0           0       7
        Isle of Wright      Slope failure & bridge            1020630                0           7       0
                            Slope failure & debris             754754                0           0      12
        James City          Debris removal                       7304                1           0       0
                            Bridge, slope failure             1703126                0           9       0
                            Debris & protective                 15000                0           0       6
        Norfolk             Slope failure                        7900                1           0       0
        Southhampton        Slope failure and debris            57631                0          11       0
                            Slope failure and debris           144082                0           0      20
        Suffolk             Slope and bridge failure          1061163                0          15       0
                            Slope failure                      297614                0           0       8
        Surry               Slope and bridge failure           235439                0           3       0
                            Slope failure                       33381                0           0       1
        Sussex              Slope failure                        6007                1           0       0
                            Slope and bridge failure           206242                0           3       0
                            Slope failure                       51485                0           0       4

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems             University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                             93
       York                Debris and protective        30000                1            0     0
                           Slope failure and debris    179534                0            8     0
                           Debris and protective        90108                0            0     7

       Brunswick           Debris removal                5000                1           0       0
                           Slope failure and debris     41602                0           6       0
                           Debris removal                9285                0           0      10
       Charles City        Slope failure and debris     26999                0           5       0
       Chesterfield        Slope failure and debris    128875                3           0       0
                           Slope failure and debris     23307                0           4       0
                           Slope failure and debris     28037                0           0       6
       Dinwiddie           Debris and protective         9092                2           0       0
                           Debris and protective        19630                0           5       0
                           Slope failure and debris    108120                0           0      13
       Hanover             Debris removal                8592                0           1       0
       Henrico             Slope failure and debris    149500                6           0       0
                           Debris removal               37937                0           2       0
       Mecklenburg         Debris removal                5181                1           0       0
                           Slope failure and debris     35100                0           6       0
                           Debris removal                5000                0           0       4
       New Kent            Debris removal               58500                1           0       0
                           Slope failure and debris    614887                0          11       0
       Prince George       Slope failure and debris     50000                5           0       0
                           Slope failure and debris     19501                0           8       0
                           Debris and protective        15885                0           0       8
       Caroline            Slope failure                 5220                0           0       1
       Essex               Bridge failure               21340                0           1       0
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems     University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                     94
       Gloucester       Slope and bridge failure    420629                 0          11       0
                        Slope failure                85878                 0           0       3
       King & Queen Slope and bridge failure        631077                 0           5       0
                        Slope failure, debris        55950                 0           0       2
       King William     Slope failure                20632                 0           1       0
       Lancaster        Slope failure                98366                 0           5       0
                        Scour                        11000                 0           0       1
       Mathews          Road washout                 12490                 0           0       1
       Middlesex        Slope and bridge failure    228115                 0           4       0
                        Slope and bridge failure    874572                 0           0       4
       Northumberland Slope failure                 152792                 0          10       0
                        Debris removal                5610                 0           0      11
       Richmond         Slope failure               223941                 0           3       0
                        Road washout                 71592                 0           0       1
       Westmoreland Road washout                     19372                 0           1       0
       Colonial Heights Shoulder erosion              9995                 0           1       0
       Chesapeake       Embankment failure           74532                 0           2       0
       Emporia          Debris removal                5998                 0           5       0
       Franklin         Road washout                 18836                 0           0       1
       Hampton          Shoulder erosion             16031                 0           1       0
       Newport News Slope failure                   486407                 0           1       0
       Petersburg       Slope failure                29108                 0           1       0
       Portsmouth       Pipe settling                 5397                 0           1       0
                        Road settling                28104                 0           0       2
       Smithfield       Slope failure                 6648                 0           0       1
       Williamsburg     Slope failure                26835                 0           4       0
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                   95
                 Hurricane Floyd (cont.)
• Performance indices generated from the
  data
• Development of indices from other data
  sources
      – Average daily traffic (ADT)
             • For each road type (interstate, primary, secondary)
      – Population density
             • For all 39 counties/cities
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              96
                                                 Hurricane Floyd (cont.)
                                                         Recovery Activities by County in Hampton Roads District
                                                  500


                                                                                                                  Area of
     Population density (pop/sq.mile)




                                                  400
                                                                                                                  proportional to
                                                  300
                                                                                                                  the cost

                                                  200




                                                  100




                                                    0
                                        -20000           0          20000           40000               60000              80000      100000



                                                  -100

                                                                            Traffic volume (ADT)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                           University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                               97
                                               Hurricane Floyd (cont.)
                                               Recovery Activities by County in Hampton Roads District
                                         500


                                               Debris & Protective                                                   Debris & protective
Population density (pop/sq.mile)




                                         400                          Slope failure & debris


                                                                                                                                                Greensville

                                         300                              Bridge, slope failure                                                 Isle of Wright
                                        Debris & Protective
                                                                            $189,236                                      Debris Removal
                                                   $2500
                                                                                                                                                James City
                                         200                                                                                                    Southhampton
                                    Slope failure & debris                                                                                      Surry
                                                                         Slope failure & bridge
                                         100
                                                                                                                                                Sussex
                                                                                                                   Slope failure & protective

                                   Slope failure                                                                                                York
                                                                             Slope & bridge failure           Slope failure
                                           0




                                        -100
                                                                     Traffic volume (ADT)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                              University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                 98
                 Hurricane Floyd (con’t)
• Charts placed on maps of Hampton Roads
• Legend
                                                    6000
                               Population density


                                                    5000
                                                    4000
                                                    3000
                                                    2000
                                                    1000
                                                       0
                                                           0    20000               40000                   60000
                                                               Average daily traffic


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                 University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                    99
                SURRY


                                                              HAMPTON




                                                     NEWPORT NEWS




                                                                   PORTSMOUTH
                                           SUFFOLK

              FRANKLIN




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                    100
                                El Nino Storms
• Case study performed using data from El
  Nino Storms recovery supplied CDOT
• Data include 251 different recovery
  activities completed between February 1998
  and June 1999.
• Data provided by Jim Varney, 2000

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              101
                                Data Collection
            District County Route Mile Mile                 Cost             Extent           Cause

                1        DN         199       6      5.9  $250,000            CL              SL
                1        DN         101     12.5    12.1  $200,000          SL, SD          WO, HS
                1        DN         101     15.2    22.8  $200,000            LL              SP
                1        DN         101     15.4          $550,000            SD              SP
                1       HUM         101      0.4          $600,000          SL, SD          SP, WO
                1       HUM         200      2.2     2.1  $140,000        LL, SL, SD        SP, CF
                1       HUM         96       3.1      3   $200,000            LL              SL
                1       HUM         96      16.6    16.7 $135,000         LL, SL, SD          SL
                1       HUM         96      16.7    16.6 $600,000         LL, SL, SD          SL
                1       HUM         96      19.9         $1,600,000       PL, SL, SD          SP
                1       HUM         101     22.9         $2,630,000       CL,PL,SD            SL
                1       HUM         96      23.9          $200,000            LL            SP, GW
                1       HUM         96      27.3          $500,000            LL            SP, GW
                1       HUM         101     31.26         $350,000        SL, SD, CL        WO, CF
                1       HUM         101     134.5         $270,000            SD            SL, GW
                1       LAK         20       27     26.9 $230,000         LL, SL, SD          SL
                1       LAK         20       28           $200,000            PL             GW
                1       MEN         101      4.5         $1,400,000           LL              SP
                1       MEN          1       4.7     4.9 $1,600,000           PL              SP
                1       MEN          1        5      4.7  $200,000            LL              SP
                1       MEN          1       6.7     6.8  $350,000        LL, SL, SD        SP, CF
                1       MEN         101      6.9          $600,000          SL, SD          SP, WO
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems           University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                      102
                  1       MEN        128   7.7   3.5    $400,000       PL, SL, SD    SP
                  1       MEN        20    8.8          $300,000           CL        SP
                  1       MEN        253  10.3 10.2     $630,000         LL, SL      WO
                  1       MEN        20   15.5 15.4     $630,000       LL, SL SD     SL
                  1       MEN        162  16.7         $1,200,000       PL,SL,SD     SP
                  1       MEN        20   20.3 20.2     $500,000           CL        SL
                  1       MEN        20    26 25.9      $380,000           SL        SP
                  1       MEN        128  34.1    34    $200,000       LL, SL, SD    SP
                  1       MEN        101  34.4 34.9     $630,000           LL        SL
                  1       MEN        101  37.8         $2,300,000        SL, SD      SP
                  1       MEN         1   41.1 41.2     $400,000         LL, SD      SP
                  1       MEN         1   41.1    41    $300,000       PL, SL SD     SP
                  1       MEN         1   41.3 41.2     $450,000       LL, SL, SD    SP
                  1       MEN        101  76.5          $700,000           SL        SP
                  1       MEN        101   86 86.2      $300,000         SL, SD      SL
                  1       MEN         1   86.5          $300,000         SL, SD      SP
                  1       MEN        101  87.2    87   $2,500,000          SL        SL
                  1       MEN        101  87.2    87   $4,250,000          SL        SL
                  1       Men         1   88.8          $300,000           SD        SL
                  1       MEN         1    98           $400,000           SD        SL
                  1       MEN         1   99.4 99.2     $300,000           OT        GW
                  1       MEN         1 85.9,85.5       $900,000       LL, SL SD SP, CF, GW
                  2       BUT        70   42.6         $1,000,000          LL        SL
                  2       BUT        70   42.6          $600,000           SD        SL
                  2       SHA         5   28.8 32.2     $300,000         SL, SD      SP
                  2       SHA         5   29.3         $3,500,000          SL        SP
                  2       SHA         5   33.5 32.5     $500,000           LL        SL
                  2       SHA         5   57.5          $800,000           SD     SL, SP
                  2       SIS        96   12.6 12.7    $1,000,000          CL        SL
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems        University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                   103
                   2       SIS      96    12.6 12.7     $1,000,000      CL       SL
                   2       SIS      96    12.6 12.7      $750,000                SL
                   2       SIS      96    12.6          $1,600,000      CL     SL, SP
                   2       TEH      36 R60.5             $850,000     PL, SL     SP
                   2       Teh      36           60.5    $500,000       SL       SL
                   2       TRI      36     0.8     6     $850,000   LL, SL CLSL, SP CF
                   2       TRI     299     2.4           $475,000       SD       SL
                   2       TRI       3    46.5           $300,000       CL       SP
                   2       TRI       3    46.5           $540,000     CL, SL     SL
                   2       TRI     299 62.1 64.7         $700,000       LL       SL
                   2       TRI     299 64.4              $500,000     LL, SD     SL
                   2       TRI     3,3663.9,0.8,4.6      $720,000 PL, SL SD      SL
                   2     TRI, SIS VAR VAR                $875,000 PL, SL SD, PDSL, SP
                   3      COL       20      10 12.4      $220,000     LL, SD     SP
                   3      GLE     5,162 11.3 11.8        $300,000       LL       WO
                   3      NEV       80    23.6 27.4      $939,000       PD       OT
                   3       SIE      49     3.2 3.4       $400,000       LL     SL, SP
                   3       SIE      49     3.4 3.4       $400,000       LL       SL
                   4       ALA     238 7.19              $600,000              CF, OT
                   4       ALA      84    10.8 17.4      $450,000       SD     SL,CF
                   4       CC       80    13.1           $385,000       SD       SL
                   4       CC      680      23 24.3      $200,000       FL       OT
                   4       CC        4      23           $500,000       SD       SL
                   4       CC      680 23.6 24.2        $10,000,000     PD       OT
                   4       CC        4      24          $1,000,000               OT
                   4       CC        4    24.32          $250,000       FL       GW
                   4       SCI     152     1.7           $500,000       LL       SP
                   4       SCL      17     0.7          $3,000,000               SL
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems          University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                     104
                   El Nino Storms (cont.)
• More specific road data provided compared
  to Floyd data
      – Route numbers, mile markers
      – Enables user to plot ADT and population
        density over wider range
      – More informative
      – Improved prioritization


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              105
                                         El Nino Storms (cont.)
                                     Recovery activities in DN, HUM, and LAK counties
                            60000



                            50000
    Average Daily Traffic




                            40000

                                                                                                              DN County
                            30000
                                                                                                              HUM County
                            20000                                                                             LAK County

                            10000



                                0
                                     0    200   400   600   800   1000   1200    1400      1600     1800

                            -10000

                                           Population Density (pop/sq. mile)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                        University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                           106
                                     El Nino Storms (cont.)
                          Recovery Activities for BUT, SHA, SIS, THE, and TRI Counties
                        60000


                        50000
Average Daily Traffic




                        40000                                                                        BUT County
                                                                                                     SHA County
                        30000
                                                                                                     SIS County

                        20000                                                                        TEH County
                                                                                                     TRI County
                        10000


                            0
                                 0    200    400    600       800             1000            1200

                        -10000

                                      Population Density (pop/sq.mile)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                  107
                   El Nino Storms (cont.)
• Accounting for extent of damage statistic
• Legend
                              $7,000,000
                              $ 7M
                              $7 M

                                                    Cost of Activity


                                       $0                                    1




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                    108
                                                                                                       El Nino Storms (cont.)
     00 0
        0
 $ 7 ,0 ,0




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Number of Activities: 4
                                                                                                                                                                 Pavement                           Number of Counties: 4
                                                                                                                                                                 damage                             Total Cost: $17,189,000
      $0                                                                                                                                                                                            Primary Cause: OT
                   1           2           3           4           5           6       7       8       9       10    11    12    13    14    15   16   17   18




        00 0
           0
    $ 7 ,0 ,0




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Number of Activities: 18
                                                                                                                                                                 Slope damage                       Number of Counties: 14
                                                                                                                                                                 & shoulder loss                    Total Cost: $15,500,000
             $0

                       1           2           3           4           5           6       7       8       9    10    11   12    13    14    15   16   17   18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Primary Cause: SP, WO

        00 00
      $7, 0 , 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Number of Activities: 13
                                                                                                                                                                 Shoulder loss                      Number of Counties: 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Total Cost: $15,305,000
              $0

                           1           2           3           4           5       6       7       8       9    10    11    12    13    14   15   16   17   18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Primary Cause: SP, SL


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                                                                                                                University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               109
                                                                                  El Nino Storms (cont.)
          00 0
             0
      $ 7 ,0 ,0




                                                                                                                                                                       Number of Activities: 18
                                                                                                                                         Slope damage                  Number of Counties: 11
                                                                                                                                                                       Total Cost: $12,229,135
             $0

                      1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9    10    11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
                                                                                                                                                                       Primary Cause: WO, SL

     00 0
        0
 $ 7 ,0 ,0




                                                                                                                                                                       Number of Activities: 2
                                                                                                                                         Flooding                      Number of Counties: 2
                                                                                                                                                                       Total Cost: $800,000
      $0

                  1       2       3       4       5       6       7       8       9       10    11    12   13   14   15   16   17   18
                                                                                                                                                                       Primary Cause: OT


                                                                                                                                                                       Number of Activities: 2
                                                                                                                                         Bridge damage                 Number of Counties: 2
                                                                                                                                                                       Total Cost: $710,000
                                                                                                                                                                       Primary Cause: BS



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                                                                                                       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                                                                                  110
                                           Summary
• Charts driven by costs and impacts on
  surrounding community
• Flexibility of charts allows them to be used
  across a variety of regions and activities
• Ease of use provides quick insight and
  explanation
• Allows for VDOT to make informed
  decisions as well as aiding in explaining
  their rationale
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              111
                           Recommendations
                                 Resource Allocation
• Consider a systematic approach to resource
  allocation for recovery
• Represent the variety of recovery projects across
  regions
• Discover the balance among all project impacts
  and costs
• Use the approach to improve the allocation of
  resources to diverse projects
• Project from past storms to the needs arising from
  future storms
 Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                               112
Methodologies for Characterizing
  Hurricane Preparedness and
    Recovery Alternatives


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              113
                          Trade-off Analysis




                Uncertain                                                 Uncertain
                 Benefits                                                  Costs



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              114
Examples of Vulnerable Systems
• Equipment
       – Signs, signals, and lights
• Road systems
       – Roads, bridges, and tunnels
• Smart highway systems
       – Motion detectors, cameras, and traffic alert
         signs

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              115
                                                                                       Alternatives:
                                                                                                                       Road System:




                                                          1. List alternative 1 here
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                                                                                                                       List road system here




      Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
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      University of Virginia, Charlottesville



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                                                                                                                                                Enhancement Alternatives




                                                                                                in
                                                                                                                                               Template for Characterizing




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116
                   Types of Preparedness
• Redundancy: Keeping additional spares on
  hand or adding extras to the system
• Resilience: A system that can bounce back
  after a hurricane.
• Robustness: The physical strength of a
  system

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              117
                           Planning Horizons
• Pre-event planning horizons

      – Short term: Preparing the system once a hurricane
        watch has been announced (hours to days before)

      – Medium term: Preparing the system at the start of the
        upcoming hurricane season (weeks to months before)

      – Long term: Preparing the system for an unknown
        hurricane in the future (years before)

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              118
             Planning Horizons (cont.)
• Post-event planning horizons

      – Short term: Repairing the system immediately after or
        during the hurricane (hours to days after)

      – Medium term: Repairing the system after all short
        term problems are fixed (weeks to months after)

      – Long term: Repairing the system after all other non-
        long term problems are fixed (months to years after)

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              119
                Assessments of Benefits
 • Time savings: How much time VDOT saves in man hours
   from the alternative
 • Cost savings: How much money is saved from each
   alternative
 • Lives saved: Number of human lives saved from the
   alternative
 • Economic impact: Impact on the society and the
   commerce in the area
 • Environmental impact: Impact on not only the
   environment but also the animals in the area too
 • Private equipment saved: Amount of personal property
   saved from the alternative
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              120
             Mechanisms of Hurricane
             Impacts and Preparedness
      • Maximum wind velocity: Top maximum
        stainable wind that the road system can
        withstand
      • Storm surge height: Maximum amount of
        water in flooding and storm surge height that
        the road system can withstand
      • Sustainable traffic flow: Maximum amount
        of traffic that the road system can handle
        without failing
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              121
                        Saffir-Simpson
                      Hurricane Categories
 Category                 Winds (mph)               Storm Surge (feet)                             Damage
    1                        74-95                         4-5                                      Minimal
    2                        96-110                        6-8                                     Moderate
    3                       111-130                       9-12                                     Extensive
    4                       131-155                       13-18                                    Extreme
    5                         >155                         >18                                    Catastrophic

• Categories of Hurricanes showing the
  respective amount of damage depending on
  the strength of the hurricane.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                 122
Case Study 1: Signs, Signals, Lights
• Redundancy is enhanced by adding the number of
  lights, signs, and signals to a system

• Resilience is enhanced by making signs, signals,
  and lights detachable.

• Robustness is enhanced by increasing the strength
  of signs, signals, and lights to last in stronger
  winds.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              123
Case Study 1: Signs, Signals, Lights




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Alternatives:

                          R
                               R
1. Strengthen signs                x           x                                     x            x




                                                        t
                                                             t
2. Store extra signs      x                x                                         x




                                                        x
3. Detachable signs           x        x       x    x                                x            x




                                                        t
                                                             t
4. Strengthen signals              x           x                                     x            x




                                                        t
                                                             t
5. Store extra signals    x                x                                         x



                                                        x
6. Detachable signals         x        x       x    x                                x            x
                                                        t

7. Strengthen lights               x           x             t                       x            x
                                                        t
                                                             t


8. Store extra lights     x                x                                         x
                                                        x




9. Detachable lights          x        x       x    x                                x            x
                                                        t
                                                             t




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                      124
       Case Study 2: Flood Mitigation
• Increase the resilience in the systems by adding
  flood gates or sandbags to tunnel entrances or
  raising the elevation of the roads to the tunnels
• Increase the robustness by increasing the power of
  the flood pumps in a tunnel to pump out any water
  that entered the tunnel.
• Increase the redundancy by increasing the number
  of pumps in the tunnel to pump out any water.

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              125
          Case Study 2: Flood Mitigation




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Alternatives:
                             R
10. Store extra sandbags             x            x                                       x         x




                                                            x
                                                                 t


                                                                           x
11. Stregthen flood gates    x                x                                           x         x




                                                            t
                                                                 x


                                                                           x
12. Install more gates           x        x       x   x                                   x         x




                                                            t
                                                                 t


                                                                           x
13. Install more pumps               x            x                                       x         x




                                                            x
                                                                 t


                                                                           x
14. Increase pump strength   x                x                                           x         x


                                                            x
                                                                 t


                                                                           x
15. Raise tunnel entrances       x        x       x   x     t                             x         x




                                                                           x
16. Raise bridge entrances           x            x                                       x         x
                                                            t




                                                                           x


  Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                        126
 Case Study 3: Roads, Bridges, Tunnels

• Enhance the robustness of bridges and tunnels by
  strengthening them to last in stronger hurricanes
• Enhance the redundancy of roadways, bridges, and
  tunnels by increasing the number of roads,
  bridges, and tunnels in the area.
• Enhance the resilience of roadways by keeping
  more VDOT trucks ready with enough supplies to
  fix the roads and clear off debris.

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              127
    Case study 3: Roads, Bridges, Tunnels




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Alternatives:
                          R
17. Stengthen tunnels              x            x                                                 x         x




                                                              t




                                                                             x
                                                                                  x
18. Build more tunnels    x                     x                                                 x         x




                                                              t




                                                                             x
                                                                                  x
19. Stengthen roadways             x            x                                                       x   x




                                                              t


                                                                        x
                                                                             t
20. Build newer bridges   x                     x                                                 x         x




                                                              t




                                                                             t
21. More VDOT trucks          x                 x     x                                                 x   x



                                                              t
                                                                   t
                                                                        x
22. Road repair kits          x             x         x   x                                             x
                                                              t
                                                                   t
                                                                        t
23. Store extra gravel        x             x         x                                                 x   x
                                                              x
                                                                   x


24. Lay more roads down x                       x     x                                                 x   x
                                                              t




25. Stengthen bridges              x            x                                                 x         x
                                                              t




  Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems           University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                128
 Case Study 4: Smart Highway Systems

• Enhance robustness by strengthening the
  equipment to last in stronger wind speeds
• Enhance resilience by creating detachable
  cameras and motion detectors in the air.
• Enhance redundancy by adding the number
  of variable message signs (VMS), cameras,
  and radar systems in the area.
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              129
   Case Study 4: Smart Highway Systems




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                                 a en ct




                                               tio
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Alternatives:
                           R
26. Strengthen detectors           x            x                                       x           x




                                                          t
                                                               x
27. Store extra detectors x                x          x                                 x




                                                          x
28. Detachable detectors       x       x        x     x                                 x




                                                          t
                                                               t
29. Strengthen cameras             x            x                                       x           x




                                                          t
                                                               x
30. Store extra cameras    x               x          x                                 x


                                                          x
31. Detachable cameras         x       x        x     x                                 x
                                                          t

32. Strengthen VMS                 x            x              t                        x           x
                                                          x
                                                               t

33. Store extra VMS        x               x          x                                 x
                                                          x




34. Put up extra VMS       x                    x                                       x           x
                                                          x




  Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                        130
        Summary Recommendations




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              131
          Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Consider a systematic approach to cost-benefit
  analysis of recovery/preparedness
• Identify the variety of alternatives for redundancy,
  robustness, and resilience
• Use the developed framework template to prepare
  more case studies for diverse systems
• Consider the use of seasonal and monthly
  forecasts to aid in preparedness
• Continue to update the hierarchical holographic
  model of hurricane preparedness and recovery
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              132
            Enhancement Alternatives
               Comparison Tool



Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              133
                                              Purpose
 To demonstrate the automated cost, risk, and
   benefit decision framework for tradeoff
    analysis of preparedness and recovery
                 alternatives.




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              134
  Enhancement options and levels
           notation
                 Enhancement levels
Each advancement in the enhancement level refers to:
 +10 mph in Ultimate Wind Velocity (w)                               Enhancement Options
 +1 foot in Ultimate Storm Surge Level (s)
 + 500,000 in maximum sustainable traffic flow (t)
                                                    Wind Velocity (w) Storm Surge (s) Traffic Flow (t)
Enhancement level 0:
                                                          w0                 s0                 t0
 - No change

Enhancement level 1:
                                                          w1                        s1            t1
 - Advance one enhancement level from level 0

Enhancement level 2:
                                                          w2                        s2            t2
 - Advance two enhancement levels from level 0

Enhancement level 3:
                                                          w3                        s3            t3
 - Advance three enhancement levels from level 0




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems       University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                         135
                      User input worksheet




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              136
         Example of multiple
     enhancement option capability




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              137
         Example of multiple
     enhancement option capability




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              138
     Trade-off analysis risk metrics
• (Repair cost)/(reconstruction cost)
      – Equivalent to damage
• Repair cost
• Time to recover
• Cost to users/stakeholders


Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              139
      Trade-off analysis for damage
                                    80
      Cost of Alternative ($1000)



                                    70
                                    60                                                                Category I & II 92 mph
                                    50                                                                33 years
                                    40
                                                                                                      Category III 120 mph
                                    30                                                                100 years
                                    20
                                                                                                      Category IV & V 130
                                    10
                                                                                                      mph 150 years
                                     0
                                     0.00           0.50           1.00               1.50
                                            (Repair Cost) / (Reconstruction Cost)



                                         Note: Cantilever signs and wind velocity
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                               140
      Trade-off analysis for damage
                                     1000
       Cost of Alternative ($1000)




                                      900
                                      800
                                      700                                                         Category I & II 6 feet 33
                                      600                                                         years
                                      500                                                         Category III 10 feet 100 years
                                      400
                                      300                                                         Category IV & V 13 feet 150
                                      200                                                         years
                                      100
                                        0
                                        0.00           0.50          1.00            1.50
                                               (Repair Cost) / (Reconstruction Cost)



                                        Note: Cantilever signs and storm surge
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                             University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                                   141
                               Example of trade-off results
                                     80
       Cost of Alternative ($1000)


                                     70
                                     60
                                                                                                    Category I & II 92 mph
                                     50
                                                                                                    33 years
                                     40
                                     30                                                             Category III 120 mph
                                     20
                                                                                                    100 years

                                     10
                                                                                                    Category IV & V 130
                                      0                                                             mph 150 years
                                          0   10      20       30        40          50
                                                   Repair Cost ($1000)

                                              Annual upgrade cost        Category III repair cost
                                                   $40,510                     $16,000
                                                   $50,310                        $0
                                                Cost Savings                   $16,000

Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems                         University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                                                             142
                           Recommendations
• Expand methodology analysis by collecting
  more data.
• Use a systematic approach to cost, risk, and
  benefit tradeoff analysis.




Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems   University of Virginia, Charlottesville

                                                                                              143

								
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