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					                                                           Strategic Planning Project 2005-2006

                           FORCES OF CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Kaibab Estates Community
          In commitment to achieving healthier communities in Coconino County, the Coconino County Health Department has engaged in an
          extensive Strategic Planning Project, applying the nationally endorsed MAPP Model (Mobilizing for Action through Planning and
          The MAPP Model focuses on strengthening the whole system rather than separate pieces, thus bringing together diverse interest to
                                             Community Health Status Assessment
                                             Local Public Health System Assessment
                                             Community Themes and Strengths Assessment
                                             Forces of Change Assessment
          A Forces of Change Assessment focuses on identifying forces such as legislation, technology, and other impending changes that effect
          the context in which the community and its public health system operate.

          For Coconino County this assessment has been conducted primarily through community-centered focus groups of diverse key informants,
          held separately in various towns and population clusters throughout the County. “Key Informants” were identified by Health Department
          staff and community members as individuals who, by nature of their jobs or their involvement in the community, are well-informed and
          aware of the major trends, factors and events that will affect the future health of the community.
                                                                 The Kaibab Estates Community
          For the purposes of this assessment, the “Kaibab Estates Community” has been defined as the approximately 1,100 residents of
          unincorporated Kaibab Estates West. The larger community includes the town of Ash Fork and the Juniper Pines development, totaling
          approximately 3,000 residents with some seasonal change. A focus group was conducted to gather perceptions of the forces of change in
          this community. A total of 17 individuals participated in the two-hour session, held on April 18, 2006.

           The following tables record the perceptions and opinions of the 17 participants in all this group. No substantive edits or value
                                                judgments were made in recording their comments.

Coconino County Health Department                                    Forces of Change                                                             06/01/06
                                     Kaibab Estates Community Focus Group Comments (April 2006)
                      ISSUE                            FORCES                                THREAT                                OPPORTUNITY
           1. POLITICAL
                                                                               Lack of Collaboration between
                                                                                                                         Visible representation from current
                   County Politics       Jurisdictional Conflicts              Yavapai and Coconino County
                                                                                                                         county supervisor
            2. ENVIRONMENTAL
                                                                               Local landfill is closed; Trash pick up
                                                                               is expensive; Some individuals dump       Need for a transfer station and
                                                                               trash in yards, the forest, roadside,     collaboration between county
                                         Trash service and land fill
                                                                               and neighborhood areas; Increasing        services; Need for the development
                                                                               litter in residential and forest areas    of a subsidized trash pick up service
                       Waste                                                   increase the fire hazards
                                                                               Confusion exists about code
                                                                               regulations; County inspectors are
                                         Septic systems                        difficult to get timely responses from;
                                                                               Inspectors also seen as difficult to
                                                                               work with
                                                                               All residents haul personal water;
                                                                               Wells sites are available but costs
                                                                                                                       Sites to dig wells for homes are
                        Water            Water Sources                         are high; Some neighbors not willing
                                                                               to invest in shared well sites due to
                                                                               financial and other risks
                                                                               Grading is not dampened to reduce Absence of street lights provide a
                       Roads             Road maintenance
                                                                               dust; Roads are not well maintained great view of the night sky
                                                                               Historical laws permit cattle to graze
                                                                               in neighborhoods; Residents are
                  Public Lands Use       Open range land
                                                                               forced to fence cattle out at high
                                                                               personal costs

Coconino County Health Department                                      Forces of Change                                                                          06/01/06
                                       Kaibab Estates Community Focus Group Comments (April 2006)
                     ISSUE                               FORCES                               THREAT                             OPPORTUNITY
            3. ECONOMIC
                                                                                                                    A trade school would provide
                                                                                Dominant local industry is stone
                                                                                                                    training for local residents
                                                                                quarries which provide physically
                                           Local industry                                                           encouraging them to stay in the
                                                                                demanding jobs; Young people don’t
                                                                                                                    area, support the community, and
                                                                                stay in the area after schooling
                                                                                                                    learn a job skill
                Jobs and employment
                                                                                People who work in near by
                                                                                communities live here; Difficulty
                                           Commuters                            recruiting employees to fill needed
                                                                                health care jobs such as dental

                                           Low cost housing increasing in the   Many homes not up to code; Codes
                                           area                                 not regularly enforced
                 Fixed income living
                                                                                Some residents travel to larger
                                           Local shopping and businesses
                                                                                communities to shop for lower prices Many residents try to support locally
                                                                                                                     owned businesses and stores
                                           Increasing property taxes and land   Fixed incomes living make it difficult
                   Property Value                                                                                      Increasing property value
                                           values                               to pay increasing property taxes
                                                                                                                      Multiple carriers provide cellular
                                           Cell phone service                   Service spotty
                   Communication                                                                                      service
                                           Internet Service                     DSL available through Qwest
                                                                                Satellites is the only option to
                                                                                                                      Residents can receive a few
                                           Television Service                   receive many channels; Satellite
                                                                                                                      channels with TV antennas
                        Media                                                   service is very expensive
                                                                                                                      Bi-Monthly newsletter available at
                                           Local print news source
                                                                                                                      local establishments

Coconino County Health Department                                      Forces of Change                                                                      06/01/06
                                      Kaibab Estates Community Focus Group Comments (April 2006)
                      ISSUE                             FORCES                             THREAT                               OPPORTUNITY
            5. POPULATION
                                                                             Population has doubled in last five
                                          Population Growth
                                                                             years, will double again
                                                                                                                    Some weekend and seasonal home
                                                                             Increasing number of weekend only owners will become permanent
                                          Part time and seasonal residents
                                                                             residents, Some seasonal change        residents in 5 or 10 years as they
                                                                             Little available rental property; Many
                                                                                                                    Some buildings in town are being
                      Housing                                                teachers live in larger communities
                                                                                                                    renovated into apartments
                                                                             and commute to work
                                                                             Seniors need increasing services
                  Ageing Population       Increasing demands on services     from emergency medical and first
                                                                             Some people move here for isolated Many residents are community
                                          Community split between two        lifestyle; Don’t want to be bothered minded and active participants who
                 Community Division
                                          different life styles              with community up-keep; Spirit of      care for the future and quality of life
                                                                             lawlessness                            of the community are residents
                                                                                                                     Neighbors know and look out for
                      Life Style          Small town living
                                                                                                                     each other
                                                                                                                     Growing population brings new
                  Ethnic Population       Hispanic population                                                        families and available workers to the
                                                                                                                     Ash Fork History Museum provides
                   Arts and Culture       Local Museum                                                               local history and culture

Coconino County Health Department                                    Forces of Change                                                                         06/01/06
                                        Kaibab Estates Community Focus Group Comments (April 2006)
                     ISSUE                                 FORCES                                 THREAT                             OPPORTUNITY
                                                                                   Non-insured have no local health
                                                                                                                       Home care is available; Dental and
                                                                                   care options; No emergency care;
                 Health care services       Health clinic in Ash Fork                                                  vision care available; Urgent care
                                                                                   No pharmacy; Residents must travel
                                                                                                                       available during clinic hours;
                                                                                   to fill Rx
                                                                                                                       First unified school district in the
                                            Public schools                                                             state; Ash Fork public library viewed
                        Education                                                                                      as strong
                                                                                                                       Some after school and athletic
                                            Children's activities
                                                                                                                       activities available in Ash fork
                                                                                                                       Law enforcement is visible within the
                                                                                                                       community; Paramedics come from
                                                                                   Very slow response time; Volunteer-
                                            Visibility and response time                                               Ash Fork; Strong community
                                                                                   only fire department
                                                                                                                       involvement in the volunteer fire
              Law Enforcement and First
                                                                                   911 calls go through Yavapai county
                                                                                   first, then forwarded to Flagstaff
                                                                                   increasing delay time of emergency
                                                                                   Long response times, Many
                                                                                   residents have numerous dogs and
                 Animal management          Delays in response times
                                                                                   are not able/don’t care for them
                                                                                                                       Need and desire for a community
                                                                                   Very active American Legion in Ash
                                                                                                                       center to make more activities
                                                                                   Fork providing community
                 Community Activities       American Legion Hall                                                       available and to provide a space for
                                                                                   gatherings, fund raisers, and many
                                                                                                                       meetings, groups, and other
                                                                                   other community services
                                                                                                                       community functions
            8. Legal
                       Local Traffic        Use of local roads                     Consistently increasing local traffic   Need for speed limit signs
                                                                                   Presence of Methamphetamine
                                            Methamphetamine use and
                        Drug Use                                                   production labs; Residents can
                                                                                   occasionally smell the labs

Coconino County Health Department                                          Forces of Change                                                                    06/01/06

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