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Shree Cement Q2FY11 Result Update

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					                                                                                                                                          Shree Cement




                                                                                                                                                                                      Result Update
                                                                                                  Earnings disappoint. Valuations remain attractive

November 11, 2010
                                                                                      n    Q2FY11 net profit at Rs106 mn (-96.3% yoy) below estimates
Reco                                           Previous Reco                               EBITDA at Rs1.4 bn (est Rs1.99 bn) decline 65.6% yoy led by
Accumulate                                                 Accumulate                      lower cement & power realisations and higher RM cost
CMP                                                    Target Price
                                                                                      n    Revenues (Rs7.2 bn ) down 20.2% yoy, led by 20% decline in
Rs2,240                                                           Rs2,330
                                                                                           cement & 27.6% decline in power revs. Cement realizations
EPS change FY11E/12E (%) -19.1 / -6.4                                                      declined 13.4% & power realisation dipped 38.7% yoy
Target Price change (%)         +5.9
Nifty                                                                      6,194      n    Cut earnings for FY11E/FY12E by 19.1%/6.4%. With recent
Sensex                                                                    20,589           cement prices hikes and pick up in volumes, expect the
                                                                                           worst to be over for Shree
Price Performance
(%)                                 1M           3M              6M 12M               n    Valuation at 5.2 EV/EBIDTA and EV/ton at USD 99 (ex value of
Absolute                                9            16            5           37          power) remain attractive. Maintain ACCUMULATE. Upgrade
Rel. to Nifty                           6             1          (14)          6           target to Rs2330, by rolling over valuation to FY12
Source: Bloomberg
                                                                                      Revenue down 20.2 % yoy- 8.1% decline in cement revenues
Relative Price Chart
2375   Rs                                                                  %    40    Revenues for the quarter at Rs7.17 bn declined 20.2%yoy and 24% qoq, impacted by
2240                                                                            30
                                                                                      20% decline in cement revenues and 27.6% decline in revenues from power segment.
                                                                                      Cement volumes declined by 7.6% yoy to 2.27 mnt, as offtake was impacted by lower
2105                                                                            20
                                                                                      demand and severe monsoon across northern region. This coupled with lower
1970                                                                            10
                                                                                      realisations of Rs3010/t, down 13.4% yoy resulted in cement revenues declining
1835                                                                            0     20%yoy to Rs6.86bn (our estimate-Rs7.07bn)
1700                                                                            -10
   Nov-09   Jan-10    Feb-10   Apr-10       Jun-10      Jul-10    Sep-10              Power segment impacted by lower volumes & realisation
                     Shree Cements (LHS)             Rel to Nifty (RHS)


Source: Bloomberg
                                                                                      Shree’s powers segment was severely impacted by lower volumes & decline in power
                                                                                      realisations. Power volumes (own generation) declined by 21.4% yoy and 64.7% qoq,
Stock Details                                                                         while realization declined by 38.7%yoy and 27.8%qoq to Rs 4.17/unit. Consequently
Sector                                                                 Cement         Power revenues declined by 27.6% yoy to Rs 315 mn (Rs210mn from sale of self
Bloomberg                                                        SRCM@IN              generated power and Rs 105 mn from traded power). Cost of power increased 36.6%
Equity Capital (Rs mn)                                                         348    yoy to Rs2.47/unit as pet coke prices increased significantly. However sequentially, cost
Face Value(Rs)                                                                  10    declined by 18%, driven by higher share of power generated from waste heat recovery
No of shares o/s (mn)                                                           35    plant. EBITDA/unit saw decline of 66% yoy and 38.3% qoq to Rs1.7/unit.
52 Week H/L                                                   2,542/1,625             Steep increase in power cost drags EBIDTA down by 32%
Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn)                                           78/1,761
                                                                                      The dismal revenue growth, coupled with severe cost pressure (total cost/t @ Rs2397/t
Daily Avg Volume (No of sh)                                                32207
                                                                                      up 24.8% yoy , 5.5% qoq) dragged aggregate EBIDTA to Rs1.42 bn (our est- Rs1.99
Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn)                                                     1.4
                                                                                      bn) down by 65.6% yoy. EBITDA margins at 19.9% declined by 2624 bps yoy & 1076
                                                                                      bps qoq, while EBIDTA/t at Rs613 declined 60.6% yoy & 38.9% qoq. Key cost trends
Shareholding Pattern (%)
                                                                                      visible during the quarter were
                                        S’10                  J’10         M’09
Promoters                                   64.8              65.5          65.6          1) P&F cost @ Rs694/t – up 37.2% yoy – led by increase in pet coke contract rates &
FII/NRI                                     16.7              16.0          15.8             fuel price
Institutions                                 7.0                 8.3           8.8        2) RM cost @ Rs415/t increased 71.5% yoy – due to higher limestone & fly ash cost
Private Corp                                 7.3                 5.6           5.2        3) Employee cost up 35.7% yoy, Other exp up 12%
Public                                       4.2                 4.6           4.6
                                                                                          4) The only silver lining was the freight cost, which @ Rs721/t (inclusive of clinker
Source: Capitaline
                                                                                             transfer cost) which declined 0.9% yoy, even after increase in diesel prices. The
                                                                                             decline in freight charges is led by lower lead distance

                                                                                      Financial Snapshot
Ajit Motwani                                                                          YE-         Net       EBITDA                       EPS       RoE            EV/      EV/
ajit.motwani@emkayglobal.com
                                                                                      Mar        Sales    (Core)   (%)    APAT    (Rs)     % chg   (%)    P/E    EBITDA   Tonne
+91 22 6612 1255
                                                                                      FY09       27,106   9,508    35.1   6,089   174.8    103.5   64.7   12.8    8.4      188
                                                                                      FY10       36,321   14,919   41.1   7,395   212.3    21.5    48.6   10.6    5.3     159.2
Chandan Asrani
                                                                                      FY11E      38,054   10,932   28.7   3,912   112.3    -47.1   19.6   20      7.2      117
chandan.asrani@emkayglobal.com
+91 22 6612 1241                                                                      FY12E      48,431   14,186   29.3   5,759   165.3    47.2    24     13.6    5.2     99.5


Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd                                                                                                                                               1
                                               Shree Cement                                                           Result Update

 Result Tables
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m)                 Q2FY10A   Q3FY10   Q4FY10    Q1FY11    Q2FY11A     YoY (%)    QoQ (%)    YTD'11    YTD'10    YoY (%)
Net Sales                          8,996    8,660     9,440     9,445      7,176       -20.2      -24.0    16,621    18,221      -8.8
Total Expenditure                  4,847    5,308     5,871     6,550      5,749       18.6       -12.2    12,299     9,813      25.3
as % of sales                       54%      61%       62%       69%        80%                              74%       54%
Consumption of RM                    823      871      842        927        757        -8.1      -18.4     1,684     1,525      10.4
as % of sales                        9%      10%        9%       10%        11%                              10%        8%
Stock Adjustement                   -225       65       -29      -299        186      -183.0     -162.4      -112      -233     -51.8
as % of sales                        -2%      1%        0%       -3%         3%                              -1%       -1%
Purchase of traded goods              26       22       22        484        115      344.1       -76.2      599         48    1158.9
as % of sales                        0%       0%        0%        5%         2%                               4%        0%
Employee Cost                        362      373      408        478        491       35.7         2.8      969        714      35.8
as % of sales                        4%       4%        4%        5%         7%                               6%        4%
Power, Oil & Fuel                  1,361    1,566     1,779     2,274      1,762       29.5       -22.5     4,036     2,760      46.2
as % of sales                       15%      18%       19%       24%        25%                              24%       15%
Freight expenses                   1,787    1,732     2,043     1,783      1,639        -8.2       -8.1     3,422     3,628      -5.7
as % of sales                       20%      20%       22%       19%        23%                              21%       20%
Other expenditure                    713      678      807        903        799       12.0       -11.6     1,702     1,372      24.0
as % of sales                        8%       8%        9%       10%        11%                              10%        8%
EBIDTA                             4,149    3,353     3,569     2,895      1,427       -65.6      -50.7     4,322     8,407     -48.6
Depreciation                         998      947     2,786     1,509      1,285       28.8       -14.8     2,794     1,971      41.8
EBIT                               3,151    2,405      783      1,386        142       -95.5      -89.8     1,528     6,436     -76.3
Other Income                         316      160       54        287        429       35.8       49.6       715        789      -9.3
Interest                             222      115      163        420        311       39.8       -26.0      731        382      91.3
PBT                                3,245    2,451      674      1,253        260       -92.0      -79.3     1,513     6,843     -77.9
Total Tax                            326      762      185        185         80       -75.6      -56.9      264        972     -72.8
Adjusted PAT                       2,918    1,689      489      1,068        180       -93.8      -83.1     1,248     5,872     -78.7
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI
APAT after MI                      2,918    1,689      489      1,068        180       -93.8      -83.1     1,248     5,872     -78.7
Extra ordinary items                  29       14     1,203         9         75      156.3      773.6        83         71      16.9
Reported PAT                       2,889    1,674      -714     1,059        106       -96.3      -90.0     1,165     5,800     -79.9
Reported EPS                        82.9     48.1      10.8      30.4        3.0       -96.3      -90.0      33.4     166.5     -79.9


Margins (%)                                                                           (bps)      (bps)                          (bps)
EBIDTA                             46.1%    38.7%    37.8%     30.6%       19.9%      -2,624     -1,076    26.0%     46.1%     -2,014
EBIT                               35.0%    27.8%     8.3%     14.7%        2.0%      -3,305     -1,270     9.2%     35.3%     -2,613
EBT                                36.1%    28.3%     7.1%     13.3%        3.6%      -3,244      -964      9.1%     37.6%     -2,846
PAT                                32.4%    19.5%     5.2%     11.3%        2.5%      -2,993      -880      7.5%     32.2%     -2,472
Effective Tax rate                 10.1%    31.1%    27.4%     14.8%       30.6%      2,058      1,588     17.5%     14.2%        328


                                              Sharp increase in depreciation & interest cost drag net profit down by 96.3%
                                              With commissioning of 3 mtpa grinding capacity and 100 MW of power plants in Q4FY10,
                                              Shree’s depreciation charge jumped 28.8% yoy to Rs1.28 bn, lower than estimates (Rs1.5
                                              bn).Depreciation was however lower on sequential basis by 14.8% due to sale of assets
                                              this quarter at a loss of Rs8.73mn. Similarly interest expenses increased 39.8% yoy to
                                              Rs311 (Our est Rs350 mn). Consequently net profit at Rs106 mn for the quarter declined by
                                              96.3% yoy and 90%qoq. This also includes a Rs74.6mn write off of assets constructed on
                                              others premises.




Emkay Research          11 November 2010                                                                                                2
                                                         Shree Cement                                                                Result Update

 Segmental Results
 Segmental Results                     Q2FY10A     Q3FY10     Q4FY10     Q1FY11     Q2FY11A     YoY (%)    QoQ (%)    YTD'11       YTD'10        YoY (%)
 Revenue
 Cement                                   8,560      8,232      8,900      8,138       6,860       -19.9      -15.7    14,999       17,420         -13.9
 Power                                    1,585      1,600      1,476      2,576        925        -41.6      -64.1     3,501        3,241           8.0
                                         10,145      9,832     10,376     10,714       7,785       -23.3      -27.3    18,500       20,661         -10.5
 Less: Intersegment revenue               1,149      1,171       935       1,269        609        -47.0      -52.0     1,878        2,441         -23.0
 Net segment revenue                      8,996      8,660      9,440      9,445       7,176       -20.2      -24.0    16,621       18,221          -8.8
 Net power revenues                        436        428        541       1,307        315        -27.6      -75.9     1,623          801         102.7


 EBIT
 Cement                                   2,418      1,324       534        802         422        -82.5      -47.4     1,224        4,428         -72.4
 Power                                     768       1,082        -54       585         -288      -137.5     -149.3      297         2,037         -85.4
                                          3,185      2,406       480       1,387        134        -95.8      -90.4     1,521        6,465         -76.5


 EBIT margin
 Cement                                  28.2%      16.1%       6.0%       9.9%        6.2%        -78.2      -37.6     8.2%        25.4%         -1,726
 Power                                   48.5%      67.6%       -3.7%     22.7%       -31.2%      -164.3     -237.2     8.5%        62.8%         -5,436



 Per tonne analysis
 Per tonne analysis                      Q2FY10A     Q3FY10     Q4FY10     Q1FY11     Q2FY11A   YoY (%)    QoQ (%)    YTD'11       YTD'10        FY2010
 cement sales(mnt)                          2.46       2.56      2.68       2.49       2.28       -7.4       -8.3      4.76         5.02          -5.1
 Raw Material                               334        340        314        373        332       -0.7      -11.0      353          304           16.3
 Stocks                                     -91        26         -11       -120        82       -189.7     -168.1     -24          -46           -49.3
 Employee                                   147        146        152        192        216       46.6      12.1       203          142           43.0
 Power and fuel                             506        557        578        742        694       37.2       -6.4      731          510           43.2
 Freight expenses                           726        676        762        717        719       -0.9       0.3       718          723           -0.7
        Freight on interunit clinker        143        129        132        149        149       4.3        -0.2      149          128           16.8
        Freight & Selling Expenses          583        547        630        568        570       -2.1       0.4       569          595           -4.4
 Other exp                                  290        265        301        363        350       21.0       -3.6      357          273           30.6
 Total Cost per tonne                      1,922      2,018      2,105      2,272      2,397      24.8       5.5      2,465        1,916          28.7
 Realisation                               3,477      3,213      3,321      3,274      3,010      -13.4      -8.1     3,148        3,472          -9.3
 EBIDTA                                    1,555      1,195      1,216      1,003       613       -60.6     -38.9      683         1,556          -56.1
  (Source: Company. Emkay Research)



Power segment analysis
Power                              Q2FY10A         Q3FY10     Q4FY10     Q1FY11     Q2FY11A     YoY (%)    QoQ (%)     YTD'11       YTD'10       FY2010
Sales                                     436         428        541        825         210       -51.8       -74.5      1035             801       29.3
Realisation                                6.8        6.1        6.9         5.8        4.2       -38.7       -27.8          5.4           6.8      -21.6
EBITDA                                    320         290        310        394          86       -73.2       -78.3       480             600       -20.0
EBIITDA/unit                               5.0        4.2        4.0         2.8        1.7       -65.9       -38.3          2.5           5.1      -51.5
EBIDTA margin                           73.4%       67.7%      57.3%      47.8%       40.8%      -3,260        -696     46.4%        74.9%         -2,855
(Source: Company)




Emkay Research              11 November 2010                                                                                                               3
                                    Shree Cement                                                              Result Update

                                    Capex update

                                    Cement capacity to jump to 13.5 mtpa by Q3FY11
                                    The Company has lighted up its Clinker Manufacturing Unit (Unit VIII) of 1 Million tonnes
                                    Per Annum capacity at Bangur City, Ras in Pali Distt of Rajasthan in the month of
                                    September .Also work on 1.5 mtpa grinding unit at Jaipur is progressing as per schedule
                                    and is expected to be completed by Q3FY11. Post this expansion Shree’s cement capacity
                                    will jump to 13.5 mtpa.

                                    Execution on 2x 150 MW TPP on track
                                    Shree’s third phase (first & second phase of 150 mw mentioned earlier), of setting up power
                                    plants with capacity of 300MW (150 MW X2) at a capex of Rs12 bn is on track for
                                    commissioning by June 2011. Post the completion of this project Shree’ total power
                                    capacity will reach to 565 MW, out of this will 115 mw be used for the self consumption and
                                    the rest will be available for sale.

                                    Downgrade FY11E/12E earnings by 19.1%/6.4%
                                    On account lower cement realisation an poor performance of the power segment and lower
                                    realization of grey cement, we are downgrading our FY11 earnings by 19.1% (EPS of
                                    Rs112.3) and FY12 earnings by 6.4% (EPS of Rs165.3).

                                                                     FY11                                  FY12
                                                         Earlier      Revised     change       Earlier     Revised     change
                                     Sales                39279         38054       -3.1%      48218         48431        0.4%
                                     EBIDTA               12174         10932      -10.2%      14200         14186       -0.1%
                                     EBIDTA (%)             31.0         28.7                    29.4         29.3
                                     Net Profit            4834          3912      -19.1%        6154         5759       -6.4%
                                     EPS                   138.8        112.3      -19.1%       176.6        165.3       -6.4%


                                    Expect worst to be over for Shree – Valuation at 5.2 EV/EBIDTA and EV/ton
                                    of USD 99 (ex value of power) remain attractive
                                    As mentioned earlier Shree’s Q2FY10 EBIDTA/t of Rs613 is the lowest level of profitability
                                                                                                        o
                                    since FY2006. With the sector profitability reaching abysmally l w levels we have seen
                                    emergence of producers understanding and pricing discipline. With recent price taken by
                                    cement producer across country, we estimate average cement prices in Shree’s key
                                    markets have reached ~Rs225/bag (Rs214/bag in Q2FY11). These hikes coupled with
                                    improving cement volumes are clear signs that the worst is possibly over for Shree as far as
                                    profitability is concerned. Moreover Shree’s current valuation at 5.2 EV/EBIDTA and Ev/ton
                                    of USD 99 (ex value of power) remain attractive. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating on
                                    the stock. We raise our target price for Shree Cement to Rs2330 (Rs2200 earlier). We have
                                    valued Shree’s cement business at average of USD 100 EV/ton and EV/EBIDTA multiple of
                                    6X for FY12 numbers, which a ~20% discount to our target multiple for ACC. The increase
                                    in our target price is driven by rollover of valuation to FY12 numbers. Power offtake and
                                    realizations remain key factors posing risk to our earnings estimates.




Emkay Research   11 November 2010                                                                                             4
                                                     Shree Cement                                                          Result Update

 Financials
Income Statement                                                            Balance Sheet
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m)                     FY09      FY10     FY11E     FY12E     Y/E, Mar (Rs. m)           FY09     FY10E     FY11E     FY12E
Net Sales                           27,106    36,321    38,054    48,431    Equity share capital        348      348       348       348
Growth (%)                           28.5      34.0       4.8      27.3     Reserves & surplus         11,752   17,984    21,170    26,203
Total Expenditure                   17,643    21,504    27,122    34,245    Net worth                  12,100   18,332    21,518    26,551
Raw Materials Cost                  2,461     3,238      3,739    4,335     Minority Interest
Employee costs                      1,039     1,586      1,959    2,155     Secured Loans              12,205   17,885    16,635    15,385
Power & Fuel cost                   6,058     6,105      9,505    14,352    Unsecured Loans            2,756     3,177     3,177     3,177
Freight                             4,294     5,889      6,088    7,002     Loan Funds                 14,962   21,062    19,812    18,562
Others                              3,790     4,687      4,841    5,412     Net Deferred Taxes          104      124       124       124
EBIDTA                              9,508     14,919    10,932    14,186    Total Liabilities          26,958   39,270    41,207    44,989
Growth (%)                           10.2      56.9      -26.7     29.8
EBIDTA %                             35.1      41.1      28.7      29.3     Gross Block                22,560   29,509    37,209    49,209
Depreciation                        2,054     5,704      6,005    6,481     Less: Acc Depreciation     16,291   21,989    27,994    34,475
EBIT                                7,453.8   9,214.6   4,927.2   7,704.5   Net block                  6,269     7,520     9,215    14,734
EBIT margin (%)                      27.5      25.4      12.9      15.9     Capital WIP                4,789     9,674     9,129     3,500
Other income                         829      1,284      1,511    1,458     Investment                 8,448    15,922    15,922    15,922
Interest                             744      1,185      1,344    1,484     Current Assets             14,294   15,822    16,632    21,804
EBT                                 7,538     9,314      5,094    7,679     Inventories                1,545     3,581     4,170     5,308
Tax                                 1,449     1,918      1,182    1,920     Sundry Debtors              583      824       1,564     1,990
Effective tax rate (%)               19.2      20.6      23.2      25.0     Cash and Bank              4,723     4,164     3,645     7,254
Adj PAT                             6,089     7,395      3,912    5,759     Loans and Advances         7,368     7,140     7,140     7,140
Growth (%)                          103.5      21.5      -47.1     47.2     Other current assets       75.52    112.784   112.784   112.784
Net Margin (%)                       22.5      20.4      10.3      11.9     Current Liab & Prov        6,842     9,666     9,690    10,970
(Profit)/loss from JV's/Ass/MI                                              Current liabilities        2,900     4,667     4,692     5,971
Adjusted PAT After JVs/Ass/MI       6,089     7,395      3,912    5,759     Provisions                 3,942     4,999     4,999     4,999
Extra-ordinary                       309       635       198       198      Net current assets         7,452     6,156     6,942    10,834
Reported PAT                         5780      6761      3715      5561     Miscellaneous Exps           0        0         0         0
Growth (%)                          122.0      17.0      -45.1     49.7     Total Assets               26,958   39,272    41,208    44,990


Cash Flow                                                                   Key Ratios
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m)                     FY09      FY10     FY11E     FY12E     Y/E, Mar                   FY09      FY10     FY11E     FY12E
PBT (Ex-Other income)               7,538     9,314      5,094    7,679     Profitability (%)
Depreciation                        2,054     5,704      6,005    6,481     EBITDA Margin               35.1     41.1      28.7      29.3
Interest Provided                    744      1,185      1,344    1,484     Net Margin                  22.5     20.4      10.3      11.9
Other Non-Cash items                                                        ROCE                        35.0     31.5      15.9      21.1
Chg in working cap                  -1,258     812      -1,305     -284     ROE                         64.7     48.6      19.6      24.0
Tax paid                            1,449     1,918      1,182    1,920     RoIC                        79.9     97.2      43.8      49.2
Operating Cashflow                  6,576     13,277     8,415    11,758    Per Share Data (Rs)
Capital expenditure                 -5,296    -11,834   -7,155    -6,371    EPS                        174.8     212.3     112.3     165.3
Free Cash Flow                      2,934     7,543       10      4,137     CEPS                       224.9     357.8     279.0     345.7
Other income                         829      1,284      1,511    1,458     BVPS                       347.3     526.2     617.7     762.1
Investments                         -2,538    -7,474      0         0       DPS                         10.0     13.0      13.0      13.0
Investing Cashflow                  -7,834    -19,308   -7,155    -6,371    Valuations (x)
Equity Capital Raised                 0         10        0         0       PER                         12.8     10.6      20.0      13.6
Loans Taken / (Repaid)              1,655     6,101     -1,250    -1,250    P/CEPS                      10.0      6.3       8.0       6.5
Interest Paid                                                     1,484     P/BV                        6.5       4.3       3.6       2.9
Dividend paid (incl tax)             -408      -529      -529      -529     EV / Sales                  2.9       2.2       2.1       1.5
Income from investments                                                     EV / EBITDA                 8.4       5.3       7.2       5.2
Others                                                                      Dividend Yield (%)          0.4       0.6       0.6       0.6
Financing Cashflow                  1,247     5,582     -1,779     -295     Gearing Ratio (x)
Net chg in cash                      -12       -449      -519     3,609     Net Debt/ Equity            0.1       0.1       0.0      (0.2)
Opening cash position               4,674     4,723      4,164    3,645     Net Debt/EBIDTA             1.1       1.1       1.5       0.8
Closing cash position               4,723     4,164      3,645    7,254     Working Cap Cycle (days)    -10       -3        10        10




Emkay Research             11 November 2010                                                                                                   5
                                                                         Shree Cement                                                                                                        Result Update



                                                                       Recommendation History: Shree Cement – SRCM IN

                                                                         Date                 Reports                                                                  Reco                   CMP         Target

                                                                         17/08/2010           Shree Cement Q1FY11 Result Update                                        Accumulate            1,805          2,200

                                                                         24/05/2010           Shree Cement Q4FY2010 Result Update                                      Accumulate            1,990          2,354

                                                                         22/01/2010           Shree Cement Q3FY2010 Result Update                                      Buy                   2,109          2,290

                                                                         29/10/2009           Shree Cement Q2FY2010 Result Update                                      Buy                   1,574          1,904


                                                                       Recent Research Reports

                                                                         Date                Reports                                                                    Reco                    CMP       Target

                                                                         10/11/2010          Garware Offshore Q2FY11 Result Update                                      Hold                     173           160

                                                                         08/11/2010          Aban Offshore Q2FY11 Result Update                                         Hold                     841           875

                                                                         01/11/2010          Century Plyboards Q2FY11 Result Update                                     Buy                        68               80

                                                                         01/11/2010          Grasim Q2FY11 Result Update                                                Accumulate             2,240        2,600




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Emkay Research                 11 November 2010                                                                                                                                 www.emkayglobal.com

				
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