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					JULY 2008               Housing Markets                             PUBLICATION 1869
                  A Reprint from Tierra Grande




            Still Standing
                                       New Jobs
                                          Keep
                                          Texas
                                        Housing
                                         Going
                                                                             By James P. Gaines




                                 S
                                       ignificantly tighter mortgage underwriting coupled with
                                       falling home prices and overbuilding in some of the larger
                                       markets have dragged the U.S. housing market down-
                                 ward. Foreclosures are high and rising.
                                   So far, Texas, the second-largest housing market in the
                                 country, has fared much better than most states, but it is not
                                 immune to national and global economic and capital market
                                 pressures. While the state led the country in new job creation
                                 in 2007, an overall recession, especially a falloff in the energy
                                 sector, could seriously affect Texas’ housing market.
                                 Home Sales Volume
                                    Annual home sales in Texas fell 6.4 percent in 2007 from
                                 2006, the peak year in the current housing cycle. This was the
                                 first annual decline since the beginning of the century. Nation-
                                 ally, existing home sales dropped 13 percent and new home
                                 sales declined 26 percent. The months inventory of avail-
                                 able existing homes for sale increased from 6.4 months to 8.7
                                 months between 2006 and 2007 and currently hovers around
                                 ten months. The inventory of new homes for sale increased
                                 from 7.6 months to 11.4 months from 2006 to 2007 after vary-
                                 ing between 3.8 and 4.8 months from 1997 through 2005.
                                    Texas home sales experienced a sharp increase from
                                 2004–2006 that has proven to be unsustainable into 2007 and
                                 2008 (Figure 1). Texans, like other Americans, found mortgage
                                 credit readily available at substantially lower interest rates and
                                 rushed into homeownership or moved up in home quality or
price. The booming economy and rapidly expanding population
further fueled sales volumes.
   The general trend of home sales prior to 2004–2006 is indi-
cated by the 2003 trend line (Figure 1). The 12-month moving
average smoothes the sales for seasonal variations, but the
curve clearly demonstrates how sales significantly exceeded
expected levels and are now reverting to “norm.”
   Sales in 2007 moved back toward expectations, and 2008 is
continuing in that direction. It may be that 2009 sales will dip
slightly below norm as in past years.
   Following the 2003 trend, home
sales in Texas in 2008 would total                         Figure 1. Texas Home Sales
about 262,000, or 10,000 less than
in 2007, representing a 4 percent                              12-Month Moving Average
decline. Total sales volume for 2009         26
could be about 272,000 units, about          24                       Above-Trend Sales
equal to the 2007 level if they do not                                Volume Reverting to
dip below norm because of general            22                       Long-Term Trend
                                             Homes in Thousands




economic declines (Figure 2).                                     20
   If market conditions continue to                                                                   2003 Trend
deteriorate, if a recession materially                            18
affects Texas or if the credit squeeze                            16
continues to make mortgages more
difficult to get, sales in both years                             14
could be lower than indicated by the
                                                                  12
long-term trend.
                                                                  10
Texas Home Prices
   The good news for Texas so far              8
                                                    1997       1999        2001        2003        2005       2007   2009
is that home prices continue to
                                                                                     Year
appreciate, unlike in other areas of             Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
the country. The National Associa-
tion of Realtors (NAR) reports that
the national median home price in 2007 declined for the first
time since the 1960s, when they began tracking the data. By
contrast, Texas’ median home price in-
creased by 3.1 percent. The Office of Federal
Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)                              Figure 2. Annual Texas Home Sales
reported an annual increase of 2.5 percent                                            2003 Trend
for Texas in first quarter 2008 versus a 3.1
percent national decline in its purchase-only        290             2007 = 272,100 (about 5% decline from 2006)
housing index.                                                       2008 = 262,000 (4% less)
   Maintaining home values throughout                                2009 = 272,000 (about equal to 2007)
                                                     250
                                                                       Homes in Thousands




the state has been critical in minimizing
the impact of mortgage loan defaults and             210
foreclosures. Other areas of the country
with significant home price declines are, not
                                                     170
surprisingly, leading the country in foreclo-
sures. In Texas, borrowers who experience
financial difficulties at least have some
                                                     130
chance of refinancing the loan or selling the
house before foreclosure rather than finding          90
themselves “upside down” on the value
relative to the loan.                                 50
                                                          1990               1995               2000             2005     2009
   Home value appreciation occurred uni-                                                                                 PROJECTED

formly across the state, with Midland and                                                      Year
                                                          Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Odessa leading the way (Figure 3). A sign
of the future, however, is that the rate of
increase in appreciation fell significantly from the fourth
                                                         Figure 3. Texas Home Appreciation
                                                              Annual Percent Increase
                                                                    1Q07 to 1Q08                                                quarter of 2007. Home
                                                                                                                                value appreciation in Texas
                                              Abilene             2.79% Fort Worth        2.59% San Angelo          6.39%       for the rest of the year may
                                                                                                                                be fairly minimal except in
                                              Amarilllo           4.93% Houston           4.38% San Antonio 3.47%               a few areas.
                                              Austin              7.73% Killeen           1.52% Sherman             0.19%          The national home price
                                              Beaumont            6.29% Laredo            4.34% Texarkana           4.13%       bubble sprang a sizable
                                                                                                                                leak. The U.S. median
                                              Brownsville         5.69% Longview          2.92% Tyler               7.36%
                                                                                                                                home price fell in 2007 and
                                              College Station 4.22% Lubbock               4.56% Victoria            8.91%       almost certainly will fall
                                              Corpus Christi 2.36% McAllen                1.83% Waco                2.43%       further in 2008. The NAR-
                                                                                                                                reported national median
                                              Dallas              3.76% Midland          11.40% Wichita Falls 3.07%
                                                                                                                                home price peaked in July
                                              El Paso             6.30% Odessa           13.04%                                 2006 at $230,900 and has
                                                                                                                                fallen every month since on
                                              Source: OFHEO, 1Q2008
                                                                                                                                an annual percentage basis.
                                                                                                                                   NAR reported a 2007
                               Figure 4. Texas Median Home Prices                                      median of $217,900, 1.8 percent less than the
                                                                                                       2006 median price of $221,900 and 5.6 percent
                                                     2007 Trend                                        lower than the peak. The current median price of
                       160                                                                             $200,700 is 13 percent less than the peak price.
                              Median home price of $159,000 by 2010
                                equals a 7.8% increase over 2007.                                        Texas’ statewide median home price demon-
                       140 Annual increases of 1.7% in 2008 and 3% in                                  strates relatively stable growth over nearly 20
                                2009 and 2010.                                                         years (Figure 4). The median price increased an
Dollars in Thousands




                                                                                                       average of 4.4 percent annually since 1990 and did
                       120                                                                             not significantly exceed the trend even during the
                                                  2007 Trend
                                                                                                       2004–2006 period. There was no statewide price
                       100                                                                             bubble during this boom period. Extrapolating the
                                                                                                       2007 trend line suggests that the 2008 statewide
                                                                                                       median price should reach around $150,000, a 1.7
                        80                                                                             percent increase over 2007’s $147,500. By 2010,
                                                                                                       the median price could increase by 7.8 percent
                        60                                                                             to around $159,000 if the fundamental trend of
                                                                                                       increase continues.
                                                                                                         If the future median home price follows the
                             1990          1994         1998          2002         2006       2010
                                                              Year
                                                                                             PROJECTED 2003 trend (Figure 5), as anticipated for sales vol-
                          Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University                           ume and construction, rather than the 2007 trend,
                                                                                                       the statewide median price could fall 1.3 percent
                                                                                                                      in 2008 to $145,650. The statewide
                                                Figure 5. Texas Median Home Prices                                    median price would not reach the
                                                                      2003 Trend                                      $150,000 level until 2009 and around
                                    160                                                                               $154,500 by 2010, a 4.8 percent in-
                                              Median home price of $154,600 by 2010                                   crease over 2007.
                                                 equals a 4.8% increase over 2007.                                      Hence, Texas’ projected 2008
                                    140 Annual decline of 1.3% in 2008 and an                                         median home price may decrease or
                                                 increase of 3% in 2009 and 2010.
                                 Dollars in Thousands




                                                                                                                      increase somewhere between –1.3
                                    120                                                                               percent and 1.7 percent, essentially
                                                                   2003 Trend                                         remaining relatively flat this year
                                                                                                                      and not experiencing any significant
                                    100                                                                               increase until 2010.
                                                                                                                        By contrast, the national housing
                                                                                                                      price bubble that emerged between
                                      80
                                                                                                                      2001 and 2006 is easy to see graphi-
                                                                                                                      cally as well as the direction the
                                      60                                                                              median price is moving in 2008.
                                                                                                                      Figure 6 shows the run-up in median
                                             1990           1994         1998        2002        2006      2010       price to the peak in July 2006 and
                                                                                                          PROJECTED
                                                                               Year                                   the subsequent run-down toward the
                                          Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University                          long-term, 2001 trend line. Since
the national housing boom started in 2002, the 2001 trend line
indicates the pre-boom direction of prices.
   The 2007 reported U.S. median home price was $217,000. If
the 2008 median home price reverts completely to the indi-
cated 2001 trend level of around $187,500, it would represent a
14 percent decline. If the annual median price stabilizes around
$200,000, for example, it would still represent an 8.5 per-
cent decline from the 2007 level. Unless the housing market
reverses fairly quickly over the
summer, which does not appear
likely, the national median price             Figure 6. U.S. Median                       Home Price in 2008
will probably sustain a signifi-         250                                                            JULY 2006
cant decline, potentially between                                                                        $230,900
8.5 and 14 percent. Through May,         225
the national median price was
down 6.8 percent.                        200
                                        Dollars in Thousands




New Home Construction                                          175


N
           ationally and within                                                                            2001 Trend
           Texas, new home                150
           construction was down
significantly in 2007 and is              125
likely to be down further in 2008.
                                          100
During the 2002–2006 boom,                                        At 2001 trend, 2008 median prices should be between
                                                                     $185,000 and $190,000. 2007 = $217,900,
homebuilders overestimated the             75                        if 2008 = $187,000 along trend line, down 14%;
demand for new homes and built                                       if 2008 = $200,000, down 8.5%.
significantly more units than              50
could be absorbed, creating a glut               1991      1994          1997      2000         2003        2006      2009
in the supply.                                                                    Year
                                               Sources: National Association of Realtors
   Annual new home sales (Figure                        and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
7) increased from 877,000 units
in 2000 to 1.283 million units in 2005 after averaging 700,000
annually in the 1990s. Sales for 2008 appear headed toward
the 500,000 to 600,000 range, not nearly enough to absorb the
inventory of unsold units.
   New home sales, like existing home sales,
exploded with the advent of easy credit, easy
terms and new mortgage products aimed at                                Figure 7. Annual New Home Sales
making homeownership easier. As the mar-                1,300
ket cooled in 2006 and 2007, home builders                         Average Annual Sales by Decade:       2005–2006 = –18.1%
were slow to adjust inventory levels and new                                60s       513                2006–2007 = –26.2%
                                                        1,100               70s       656
construction.                                                               80s       609
   The fall-off in new home construction has                                90s       698
                                                                     Homes in Thousands




                                                                            00–07 1,020
been dramatic, as indicated by the severe drop            900
in the number of new home starts reported by
the Census Bureau (Figure 8).
   For 2008 and 2009, the new home construc-              700
tion market is not promising in the aggregate.
The Census Bureau estimates a 10.6-month
inventory of new homes available nation-                  500
ally (a balanced market typically has between
three and four months inventory). In 2007,                300
new home starts reported by the U.S. Census
Bureau averaged 87,200 per month. At the cur-
                                                                   1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
rent rate of 40,000 to 50,000 sales per month                                                                                     APRIL
                                                                                                    Year
(500,000 to 600,000 annually), starts will have                Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders
to fall to less than 50,000 per month for the                             and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
market to recover. Even then, it would take
several years to clear the existing inventory of unsold units.
                                                                                                                   Because real estate
                                                    Figure 8. U.S. Annual Single-Family                         housing markets are
                                                             New Home Starts                                    local, these numbers do
                            1,800                                                                               not apply everywhere.
                                                                                                                Some areas will see
                            1,600                                                                               improvement more


                         Home Starts in Thousands
                                                                                                                quickly, and others may
                            1,400
                                                                                                                take years to balance
                            1,200                                                                               new home inventory
                                                                                                                and sales.
                            1,000                                                                                  Texas’ new home con-
                                                                                                                struction market gener-
                              800
                                                                                                                ally followed a pattern
                              600                                                                               similar to the national
                                                                                                                experience, with rap-
                              400                                                                               idly increasing activity
                                                                                                                between 2001 and 2005
                              200                                                                               followed by a gradual
                                     1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007
                                                                                                                decline in 2006 and a
                                                                      Year
                                  Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders            more severe decline in
                                            and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University                      2007 (Figure 9).
                                                                                                                   The average number
                                                                    of new homes permitted in Texas may fall by more than 5,000
                                                                    units per month from the peak in 2005 to the projected number
                                                                                                       for 2008. The 101,000 permits
                                                                                                       projected for 2008 is roughly
                                      Figure 9. Texas Single-Family                                    equal to the number issued
                                         Dwelling Building Permits                                     in 1998–1999. That number
                       180                                                                             should be even lower for the
                                       Average                                                         market to adjust more quickly.
                       160            Permits Per                                                      Homebuilding, however, will
                                Year    Month
                       140      2002    10,250                                             –31.3%
                                                                                                       not stop, thereby delaying
Permits in Thousands




                                2003    11,460                                                         recovery.
                       120      2004    12,600
                                2005    13,850                                                            Again, overbuilding and
                       100
                                2006    13,600                                                  –10%
                                                                                                       excess inventories tend to
                                2007     9,340
                               2008p     8,400                                                         be localized even within the
                        80                                                                             major urban markets in Texas.
                        60                                                                             Dallas–Fort Worth, for exam-
                                                                                                       ple, is generally considered to
                        40                                                                             have an oversupply of new, va-
                                                                                                       cant units, but these tend to be
                        20
                                                                                                       concentrated primarily in the
                         0                                                                             northern suburbs and exurbs.
                           1990       1993        1996        1999       2002      2005        2008 Other local submarkets within
                                                                                             PROJECTED
                                                              Year                                     the Metroplex do not suffer
                        Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University     from oversupply. Overall, hous-
                                                                                                       ing demand in the Dallas–Fort
                                                                    Worth market is still relatively strong, but home builders will
                                                                    need to be careful not to make the situation more serious.
                                                                     Dr. Gaines (jpgaines@tamu.edu) is a research economist with the Real
                                                                     Estate Center at Texas A&M University.


                                                                                             THE TAKEAWAY
                                                                      Texas’ housing market continues to be significantly stronger
                                                                      than the national market. Home sales will probably decline
                                                                      but prices should be flat. New home construction will re-
                                                                      main soft until the market finds balance.
                                                                        MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL
                           Texas A&M University                                                                             http://recenter.tamu.edu
                                2115 TAMU                                                                                         979-845-2031
                      College Station, TX 77843-2115


Director, Gary W. Maler; Chief Economist, Dr. Mark G. Dotzour; Communications Director, David S. Jones; Associate Editor, Nancy McQuistion; Associate Editor,
Bryan Pope; Assistant Editor, Kammy Baumann; Art Director, Robert P. Beals II; Graphic Designer, JP Beato III; Circulation Manager, Mark Baumann; Typography,
Real Estate Center.

                                                                         Advisory Committee
    D. Marc McDougal, Lubbock, chairman; Ronald C. Wakefield, San Antonio, vice chairman; James Michael Boyd, Houston; Catarina Gonzales Cron, Houston;
               David E. Dalzell, Abilene; Tom H. Gann, Lufkin; Jacquelyn K. Hawkins, Austin; Barbara A. Russell, Denton; Douglas A. Schwartz, El Paso;
                                         and John D. Eckstrum, Conroe, ex-officio representing the Texas Real Estate Commission.

      Tierra Grande (ISSN 1070-0234) is published quarterly by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-2115. Subscriptions
         are free to Texas real estate licensees. Other subscribers, $20 per year. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by the
              Real Estate Center, Mays Business School or Texas A&M University. The Texas A&M University System serves people of all ages, regardless of
      socioeconomic level, race, color, sex, religion, disability or national origin. Photography/Illustrations: Richard Gunn, p. 1; Real Estate Center files, pp. 2–5.

				
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