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									Database Overview
February 2010




INTRODUCTION


This bulletin represents an overview of the weekly jobs dat abase and the business costs
indicators database from Oxford Economics’ Regional Services Division. It provides a s ummary
of the salient features of the jobs dat abase and any interesting new developments in the
business cost indicators database during the month of February 2010.


For more information on this bulletin please contact:
Helen Mc Dermott     Tel: 0844 979 2365; e-mail hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com




JOBS DATABAS E OV ERVIEW


The jobs database produced by Oxford Economics i s delivered to Yorkshire Forward on
a weekly basi s. The purpose of the jobs databa se is to summari se announcements of any
key investments / closure s in the Yorkshire region which will or may result in the
creation or loss of jobs. The information is collected from a diverse range of data
source s including The Times, the Financial Times, BBC New s, the UK Activi ty Report and
a selection of local newspapers. Thi s i s then compiled by a number of categories
(geographic region, planned / confirmed job gain or loss and se ctor) and summarised in
a number of charts. The following is a brief overview of the key a nnouncements from the
database for the month of February 2010.


To date, there have been 38 announc ements collected in February 2010, culminating in 870
planned job gains and 869 planned job losses, and 494 confirmed job gains and 100 confirmed
job losses (figure 1). Note t hat the cut-off date for collected job announcements this month was
  th
24     February with the remainder of February’s job announcements due in the jobs database
                          rd
that will be delivered on 3 March.


When comparing jobs announcements with pr evious months it is useful to compare with the
same seasonal period. That is to say that it is difficult to compare jobs announcements in May
with jobs announc ements in November / December as job c reation at that time of year is much
higher due to higher retail employment during the Christmas period.
    Figure 1: Planned and confirmed job gains and losse s in Yorkshire & the Humber,
                                             February 2009 and February 2010

                              6000
                                          Feb-09
                              5000
                                          Feb-10

                              4000

                              3000
                No. of jobs




                              2000

                              1000

                                 0

                              -1000

                              -2000
                                      Planned job loss   Planned job gain   Confirmed job loss Confirmed job gain




Figure 1 compares the recorded job gains and losses observed during the last month thus far
with those collected in February 2009. The most striking change since last year is a significant
decline in the level of planned job gains with only 870 planned gains compared with 5,585
planned gains one year ago. The reason behind such a large discrepancy is due to two
particular announcements collected in February 2009 that suggest that there were 3,000
planned job gains in the Y orkshire region; (1) Manningham Housing Association which
suggested the creation of 2,000 jobs, and (2)Capitol Park Development which suggested the
creation of 1, 000 jobs.


Looking at c onfirmed job gains and losses, the database continues to support a growing region
with a much improved labour market. Confirmed job losses are lower than one year ago with
only 100 confirmed losses last month compared with 1,037 reported job losses one year ago.
Confirmed job gains are higher in the last month at 494 job gains compared with only 210 gains
one year ago.


The sectoral s plit of confirmed job gains and losses was relatively even in February 2010. In
terms of job gains, 56.9% of losses were in the services sector with the remaining 43.1% in
manufacturing. In terms of job losses there was an even 50 / 50 split between services and
manufacturing during last mont h.
Figure 2: Confirmed job gains and losse s in Yorkshire & the Humber by sector, February
                                                    2010

                             300
                                    Gains
                             250    Losses

                             200

                             150
               No. of jobs




                             100

                              50

                               0

                              -50

                             -100
                                    Manufacturing     Services       Other




Geographically, the majority of c onfirmed job gains (54.7% ) were in Humber with 270 additional
jobs announced. The majority of these jobs were created by Daniels Group with t he £8.5m
takeover of the vacated Mariner Foods plant in Grimsby that is set to create 200 jobs in the
area. North Yorkshire had the second highest share of confirmed job gains at 30.4%, followed
by West Yorkshire with 12.3% of the total gains and the remaining 2. 6% in South Yorkshire.


In terms of confirmed losses, there were no losses in North Y orkshire or Humber with a 50 / 50
split between Sout h and West Yorkshire. In both there were only 50 confirmed job losses with
no significantly large announcements of job losses.


Below is a summary of the major jobs announcements from last month’s database:


Job losses


       Sheffield Hallam University: S heffield Hallam University is denying a claim that
        funding cuts mean it will have to cut 340 teaching posts. The University says it is not
        planning any compulsory redundancies and that it will be short term Associate Lecturers
        who will be removed from the University's books


       Greencore Cakes and De sserts: Workers are fearing for t heir livelihood as it was
        confirmed that 100 jobs are under threat at Greencore Cakes and Desserts' factory in
        east Hull. The move follows the loss of a major contract.
      St Andrew's College: At least 87 jobs, of which 37 will be teaching staff, could be lost
       as St Mary's Catholic High School and Matthew Hum berstone School merge in
       September under the new name St Andrew's College,


      Barbarellas, Bar Rouge and La Salsa: The owner of Barbarellas, Bar Rouge and La
       Salsa, a s eries of clubs and lap -dancing clubs in Halifax has hit out as they have all
       been raided by police and closed, temporarily at least. A total of 104 people are out of
       work as a result, and Calderdale Council will decide on March 18th whether they can be
       opened again or not.


Job gains
      • Lightwater Valley: Light water Valley theme park is offering 350 seasonal jobs. The
       new season is due to commence at the end of March.


      Sainsburys: A huge extension being built at Sainsburys in Monks Cross, York, will
       create 40 new jobs when the work in complet e in July.


      Marriott Hotel s: Marriott is to operat e a 185-bedroom Courtyard by Marriott hotel and
       conference centre at the £100m Manor Mill development in Hull, with the creation of
       400 jobs.


      Daniels Group: Leading chilled food manufacturer, Daniels Group, has taken over the
       vacated Mariner Foods plant in Grimsby. The £8. 5m investment will create 200 jobs.



BUSI NESS COSTS INDICATORS OVERVI EW


The business costs indicators database i s delivered to Yorkshire Forward at the
beginning of each month. It includes a selection of key indicators which provide an
overview of the recent events in the national and regional economy. The following is a
brief overview of new data that has been released in the last month.


The latest UK quarterly GDP data brings positive news indicating that the economy grew by
0.3% in Q4 2009 which is an upward revision from the 0.1% growt h report ed previously. This
latest news follows on from the longest recession ever recorded in the UK which saw 6
consecutive quarters of negative growth. However the latest data is released amidst fears of a
‘double dip’ recession with many economic commentators warning that factors such as the
expected upcoming VA T increase in January will have lead to increased spending in Q4 that
would not have normally occurred..
Oxford’s latest forecast for UK GDP is for a contraction of 4. 5% in 2009 followed by a weak
recovery in 2010 of 1.1%. The latest employment dat a and GDP outlook has resulted in a slight
revision to the labour market outlook for the UK with 842, 250 jobs losses expected by 2011
(compared wit h 855,000 expected losses previously), however we expect the UK to return to its
2008 peak level of employment by 2016. The growth forecast for Yorkshire is for a 4.8%
contraction in 2009 followed by modest growth in 2010 of 1. 3%. In employment terms we
estimate job losses in the region to continue until 2012 before a return to positive growt h occurs.
In total we expect that around 90,900 jobs will be lost in the region by 201 2 and we do not
expect Yorkshire t o return to its 2008 peak level of employment until 2020. B oth the UK and
Yorkshire are expected to return t o trend GDP growth by 2014-15 wit h above trend growth in
the preceding years as the markets realign.


   Figure 3: GVA growth in Yorkshire & Humber and the UK (% per annum), 2005-2012

                                  4.0

                                  3.0

                                  2.0

                                  1.0
                    % per annum




                                  0.0
                                         2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011     2012
                                  -1.0

                                  -2.0

                                  -3.0

                                  -4.0
                                                                            Yorkshire & Humber
                                  -5.0                                      UK

                                  -6.0



                    Source: Regional Accounts / Oxford Economics


   The net balance of respondents to the British Chamber of Commerce’s 2009Q4 survey
   question on whether service sector home sales had risen over the past three months is down
   from the previous quarter by one point from -1 to -2 however it remains higher than the same
   period a year earlier when the response ret urned a score of -31 in Q4 2008. The results are
   much more positive for Y orkshire where survey respondents recorded an increase from 7 in
   Q3 2009 to 8 in Q4.


Figure 4: PMI busine ss activi ty, Yorkshire & Humber and the UK, August 2006 – January
                                                              2010
                                         60


                                         55




                 % chng last 12 months
                                         50


                                         45


                                         40
                                               Yorkshire & Humber
                                         35
                                               UK

                                         30
                                              Nov-06




                                              Nov-07




                                              Nov-08




                                              Nov-09
                                              Jan-07



                                              Jun-07
                                               Jul-07




                                              Jan-08



                                              Jun-08
                                               Jul-08




                                              Jan-09



                                              Jun-09
                                               Jul-09




                                              Jan-10
                                              Oct-06



                                              Mar-07
                                              May-07



                                              Oct-07



                                              Mar-08
                                              May-08



                                              Oct-08



                                              Mar-09
                                              May-09



                                              Oct-09
                                              Aug-06
                                              Sep-06

                                              Dec-06
                                              Feb-07
                                              Apr-07


                                              Aug-07
                                              Sep-07

                                              Dec-07
                                              Feb-08
                                              Apr-08


                                              Aug-08
                                              Sep-08

                                              Dec-08
                                              Feb-09
                                              Apr-09


                                              Aug-09
                                              Sep-09

                                              Dec-09
             Source: Markit Economics


The latest Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMI’s) from Markit Economics are for January 2010.
The latest results show that private sector business activity fell in the region and at a national
level. In t he UK, business activity is down by 1.7 percenatage points and stands at 55.5 in
January 2010. B usiness activity in Yorkshire suffered a sharper contraction of 3.8 percentage
points to 52.0. However bot h remain above the 50 boom / bust line where t hey have both
remained since June 2009 with the UK moving into positive growth one month earlier in May
2009..


The last wages data releas ed from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) was for Q4 2009 and
recorded an inc reas e in average weekly wages of full time employees in the UK having declined
slightly in the previous quart er. At £533, the average weekly wage for all full time employees is
up by £10 per week in the UK. All but two regions enjoyed a rise in average wages with the
Nort h West and Northern Ireland both enjoying higher wage levels. In Yorkshire, the average
weekly wage was £484 and higher than the previous quarter by £16 per week. . Both males and
females enjoyed higher wages in Q4 in both Yorkshire and the UK. The average weekly wage
for males in full time employment was £579 in the UK compared with £532 in Y orkshire; and for
females the average weekly wage was £460 per week in the UK c ompared with £408 per week
in Yorkshire..
  Figure 5: House price growth by Yorkshire local authority - pa st year and past quarter

                        25.0
                                           Last yr
                        20.0               Last qtr

                        15.0

                        10.0
             % change




                         5.0

                         0.0

                         -5.0

                        -10.0

                        -15.0
                                                                    Craven




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sheffield
                                            Bradford




                                                                                         East Riding of Yorkshire
                                                                             Doncaster




                                                                                                                                Harrogate
                                                                                                                    Hambleton




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ryedale




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Wakefield
                                                       Calderdale




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Scarborough
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Richmondshire
                                                                                                                                                                                                              North Lincolnshire




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Yorkshire & the Humber
                                                                                                                                                                                    North East Lincolnshire




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Rotherham
                                                                                                                                            Kingston upon Hull




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       York
                                                                                                                                                                            Leeds




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Selby
                                Barnsley




                                                                                                                                                                 Kirklees




                          Source: DCLG


There has been no new local house price data released from DCLG since the last review with
Q3 2009 being the latest datapoint. Figure 5 shows the percent change in each local authority
over the last 12 months and the last quart er. In t he 12 mont hs to Q3 2009, 8 of the 22 local
authorities within the region experienced an inc reas e in the average house price compared with
only one local authority witnessing a rise in the average h ouse price in the 12 months to Q2
2009. The highest increase was in S heffield with a 7% increase in house price – helped by a
12.5% increase in average house price in the latest quarter. East Riding of Yorkshire had the
sharpest contraction in house price with a 12% decline despite a modest rise in the last quarter
of 3%. It is worth noting here however that this data is based on house sales and can vary from
quarter to quarter depending on housing market activity. Therefore looking at the change over a
number of periods is advisable to enhance the reliability of the dataset.


New Brent Crude Oil data has been published since the last overview with oil prices for the
month of February 2010 now available (figure 6). The latest data shows a slight decline in the
average price of a barrel of oil from $7 7 in January to $74 in February 2010. This remains
higher than t he price report ed 12 months ago - by 71.7% - reflecting the impact the plunging oil
prices in November 2008 had on oil prices in the months that followed it. The rec ent increases
in average oil prices compared with the falling prices rec orded one year ago has led to several
rises in inflation over the past number of months. The latest inflation data – January 2010 - is no
different, and we will report on this later.
      Figure 6: Brent crude oil (average $ per barrel), January 2007 – February 2010
                                             160


                                             140


                                             120




                      Average $ per barrel
                                             100


                                             80


                                             60


                                             40


                                             20                  Brent Crude Oil (Avg, $/Barrel)

                                              0
                                                   Jan-   Apr-    Jul-   Oct-   Jan-   Apr-    Jul-   Oct-   Jan-   Apr-   Jul-   Oct-   Jan-
                                                    07     07      07     07     08     08      08     08     09     09     09     09     10



                   Source: Haver Analytics



Elsewhere, the prices of selected crops and metals have been also been published for February
2010. The average price of barley rec orded a fall in average price for t he second consec utive
month with a 2.3% in February 2010 to $90 per metric tonne. This price is lower than the price
recorded one year ago by 6.8%. Similarly, the price of maize fell in February having remained
flat in the previous month. At $107 per metric tonne it is 5.8% lower than t he January price and
17.9% lower than the price recorded 12 months earlier.


                                                                                                                                                th
The average price of rubber continues t o rise in February 2010 marking t he 14                                                                      consec utive
month of growth for the commodity. At 1029 cents to the kilogram, the average price of rubber is
2.5% higher than in January and 102.6% higher than the price recorded one year ago.


Looking at the average price of metals, all but nickel recorded a fall in February 2010 which
increased by 2.5% from its price in January, and up by 82.3% compared to one year earlier to
stand at a price of $18,962 per met ric tonne. The largest monthly decline was in the price of
zinc, which at $2, 159 per metric tonne is down by 12.1% since January but remains higher than
the price recorded one year ago (by 94.2%). The average prices of tin, copper, lead and
aluminium declined to $16,364, $6,852, $2, 127 and $2,051 per metric tonne respectively.


More relevant to consumers and producers than the commodity market prices are the prices
they actually pay to us e raw materials. The latest data available is for Q3 2009 and records the
average prices of fuels purchased by manufacturing industry in Great Britain (excluding the
Climate Change Levy). The average price of gas increased in Q3 2009 to £483 per metric tonne
but is 25.5% lower than the level recorded one year ago. Electricity prices cont racted in Q3
              rd
marking t he 3 successive month of falling electricity prices. At 7.3 pence per kilowatt it is lower
than the previous quarter by 1.1% but 8.3% higher than one y ear ago. The price of coal has
increased in Q3 to £2.26 per Giga Joule however it is 13.7% lower than one year ago.
The latest monthly data for agricultural output prices is for Dec ember 2009 and reports an
increase in the latest month of 1.8% in t he average price of all agricultural products but remains
1.4% lower t han the price observed one y ear ago. The monthly increase in agricultural prices
was support ed by growth in all types of agricultural products with cereals having the fastest
growth at 2.2%, followed by animals & animal products which grew by 1.5%..


Cons umer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased in January 2010 to 3.5% from 2.9% in the
previous month and marks the fourth s uccessive month of rising inflation having experienced a
period of deflation for 7 consecutive months prior to that . This increase of 0.6% marks the
second largest increase in the 12 month CP I since records began in 1996, the largest increase
of 1% occurred in the previous mont h. The VA T increase from 15% to 17.5% was one
contributing factor leading to larger than normal price increases in January 2010. However, the
largest contributing factor was in the transport sector with fuels and lubricants only rising by
2.2% this year compared with a 3.4% decline one year ago. Rising prices of crude oil compared
with a fall last year were also a contributing factor. Price increases in recreation and culture,
alcohol and tobacco, and housing and household services were other f actors leading to a higher
rate of inflation in January 2010.


The Retail P rice Index (RPI) also increased in January 2010 with VA T bearing a significant
impact on the RP I. In addition to the VA T impact, the RP I was affected by significant increase in
prices in the housing sector, In particular the increase in mortgage interest payments recorded
last month compares with the falling mort gage interest payments one year ago when banks
passed on part of the 1 perc entage point decline in the interest rate from 2% to 3%. House
depreciation which inc reased last month but fell in the same period 12 months ago was also a
key factor in the RPI increase.


Looking in more detail at price indices, manufacturing input prices increased by 8. 4% on a year
ago in January – marking the fourt h consecutive month of positive growth. This was chiefly led
by positive growth in the price of Crude Oil in January of 70.6%. Output prices for UK
businesses were 3.8% higher than a y ear earlier in December, mostly impacted by rise in the
price of petrol which grew by 20.6%.


The latest PMI indices suggest that input prices increased in January 2010 from 54.3 to 58.8
and remains above the 50 ‘no change’ mark in Yorkshire where it has been for 4 consec utive
months. The output pric e indices from the PMI fell slightly in December to 50.0 compared with
50.6 in December 2008.
Figure 7: Inflations trends - CPI, RPI and RPI excl mortgage repayments (% change last
                                                        12 months), August 2006 – January 2010
                                        6.0


                                        5.0


                                        4.0


                % chng last 12 months   3.0


                                        2.0


                                        1.0


                                        0.0
                                                                                     Consumer Price Index (CPI)
                                        -1.0                                         Retail price index (RPI)
                                                                                     RPI (less mortgage interest payments)
                                        -2.0
                                                        Oct-06


                                                                          Feb-07


                                                                                            Jun-07


                                                                                                              Oct-07


                                                                                                                                Feb-08


                                                                                                                                                  Jun-08


                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-08


                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-09
                                                                 Dec-06




                                                                                                                       Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-09
                                                                                   Apr-07




                                                                                                                                         Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-09
                                               Aug-06




                                                                                                     Aug-07




                                                                                                                                                           Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-09

								
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