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					Introduction
Summary                                                                       1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008
This summary sheet is in two parts.
Part 1 lists key policy choices that you, the user, can change.
Part 2 summarizes the results of the policies chosen.
Part 1: Policy Choices
Note: We invite you to change settings in User May Change column (small azure box). This will change the results
shown in the large azure box further below (under the heading, Results apply to choices ...

                                                                                              Figs. in these columns
                                                                                              don't link to calculations.
                                                                                   User May
Policy Choices                                                                      Change      Kheel Plan 2007 Levels

1. Auto Cordon Fee (charged 24/7, unless "yes" is inputted in #2)              $     16.00 $         16.00 $        2.76
2. Is Cordon Fee Varied by Time of Day? (must read yes or no)                           No              No            No
3. Truck Cordon Fee as multiple of Auto Cordon Fee                                        2               2          1.75
4. Taxi Rate Surcharge (100% of which is then taxed)                                   25%             25%            0%
5. Portion of CBD "new road capacity" kept from autos + trucks                         50%             50%            0%
6. Street defining northern boundary for Curbside Parking Charges                        96              96
7. Subway Fare as a percent of current (1/2008) fare                                    0%              0%         100%
8. Bus Fare as a percent of current (1/2008) fare                                       0%              0%         100%
9. Subway Space Index                                                                  3.50            3.50         3.00
10. Bus Crowding Index                                                                 1.00            1.00         1.00

Part 2: Key Policy Results             Note: Policy Choice #2 (above) is linked only to revenues. We
                                       will link it to traffic impacts in a future iteration.

Reduction in auto trips entering the cordon on a typical weekday
Note: "Cordon" = Central Business District = Manhattan south of 60th St. = "CBD"
Above figure, expressed as percent reduction in auto trips now entering the cordon
Net increase in persons entering cordon by transit or auto on a typical weekday
Above figure, expressed as percent increase in person trips now entering the cordon
% increase in citywide person-trips by transit or auto
% reduction in citywide VMT (VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled; reflects all motor vehicles, not just automobiles)
% reduction in VMT within the cordon (streets only; no highways; assumes no change in truck traffic)
% improvement in traffic speeds within cordon (streets only)
% improvement in traffic speeds outside cordon
% reduction in citywide CO2 emissions from all motor vehicles
Annual Increase in funds available to agencies (i.e., in combined tolls plus farebox revenues)
Economic, Social and Environmental Benefits (Annual, Net)
of which Time Savings (by motor vehicle users both inside and outside the CBD,
including bus riders) provide the following amounts

Additional subway cars that must be deployed during weekday peak hour (8-9 a.m.)
Note: A link from the number of subway cars back to the net change in agency funds will be added shortly.

Part 3: Some Other Results

Capital Costs of Transit Upgrades that are reflected in the Results column in Part 2.
Note: These costs are amortized at the capital recovery factor shown here, derived in Subway Costs:                 8.0%
Details / Notes (boldface expressions refer
     to linked worksheets in this file)

See Future Price.
See By Hour worksheet for time-of-day toll schedule (if yes is chosen).
Applies to heavy vehicles. Current value is probably ~ 1.5-2.0.
Surcharge in effect 24/7. Note that fares will rise slightly less. See Taxis.
See discussion in Traffic, cells A67-A70.
Yields zero revenue unless set to 60 or 96. Latter yields more.
Percents are used instead of dollar amounts because current fares are
more complex (and lower) than nominal $2.00.
Square feet per standee during rush hour. See Transit Capacity.
1.00 indicates one seat per passenger. See Transit Capacity.
Results apply to
choices in User May
Change column                   Kheel Plan

           253,900               253,900


              31.7%                 31.7%
            68,500                68,500
               2.4%                  2.4%
               2.8%                  2.8%
               8.9%                  8.9%
              25.4%                 25.4%
              34.1%                 34.1%
              10.2%                 10.2%
              10.1%                 10.1%
$     460,000,000     $     460,000,000
$   5,500,000,000     $   5,500,000,000

$   3,870,000,000     $   3,870,000,000
                211                   211




$   1,010,000,000     $   1,010,000,000
Revenue                   1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

A. Cordon Entry Fee

A. Existing Conditions (no entry fee, paid fares)

Toll Revenues for Midtown Cordon (CBD)
Percentages denote share of toll revenues to be included in calculating existing conditions

                                                            2006 Toll Revenues, 000
                                                            Total          %    Allocable
MTA (TBTA)

Verrazano-Narrows                                      $274,100                        $0
Triborough                                             $288,300          50%     $144,150
Bronx-Whitestone                                       $186,384                        $0
Throgs Neck                                            $223,756                        $0
Brooklyn-Battery                                        $73,868         100%      $73,868
Queens Midtown                                         $127,075         100%     $127,075
Henry Hudson                                            $44,901                        $0
Marine Parkway                                          $11,536                        $0
Cross Bay                                               $11,630                        $0
MTA TOTAL                                             ########                   $345,093
Source: URS (Prepared for the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority). "History and
Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the
Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority." June 1, 2007. Page 14, Table 5.

Port Authority

Holland Tunnel                                          $87,621         100%      $87,621
Lincoln Tunnel                                         $117,408         100%     $117,408
George Washington Bridge                               $328,570                        $0
Bayonne Bridge                                          $23,469                        $0
Goethals Bridge                                         $78,244                        $0
Outerbridge Crossing                                    $83,565                        $0
MTA TOTAL                                              $718,877                  $205,029
Source: Port Authority 2008 budget, http://www.panynj.gov/budget_cap_plan/pdf/proposed_2008_budget.pdf, p. 7 (2006 actual).

Annual Motor Vehicle Toll Revenue, millions (includes taxis), 2006
Calculated from MTA and PANYNJ data directly above

Transit Revenue, millions, 2006
Annual Subway Revenue, millions
Annual Bus Revenue, millions
Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions
Subway and Bus Revenues taken directly from Transit worksheet.

Taxi Surcharge
Daily Taxi Trips
Average Per-Trip Revenue
from Schaller 2006 Taxi Fact Book, sourced in Taxi worksheet.
Total Medallion Taxi Revenues (millions)

Total Revenue, existing conditions (per year, millions)

B. Changed Conditions (entry fee, paid fares)
Automobiles (excludes medallion taxis)
Tolled Vehicle Trips (per weekday)
Average Toll
Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?
Effective Average Toll
Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands
Annual Auto Toll Revenue, millions (excludes taxis)

Trucks
Tolled Truck and Bus Trips, per weekday (assumes no attrition despite tolling)
of which Buses, which we leave untolled, are estimated to comprise:
from Buses worksheet, rounded up.
leaving this many Truck Trips
Assumed ratio of new toll to that for automobiles
Average Toll
Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?
Effective Average Toll
Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands
Annual Truck Toll Revenue, millions

Transit
Subway Trips (per weekday)                        We derive these                Figures at right
Average Effective Subway Fare                     figures in detail, rather      understate transit
Annual Subway Revenue, millions                   than copying them              ridership and revenues
Bus Trips (per weekday)                           from above, so that we         because they don't
Average Effective Bus Fare                        can run alternative            account for increased
Annual Bus Revenue, millions                      fare scenarios, if we          ridership in response to
Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions            choose.                        toll entry fee.

Taxi Surcharge
Daily Taxi Trips
Per-trip revenue
Annual Taxi Revenue, millions
NYC revenue from taxi fare surcharge, millions

Total Revenue, millions




                                                                                                            Metro-Nor

                                                                                                            2006 Fareb



                                                                                                            City-Statio
All Station-
Metro-North
Revenue s

Estimated

L.I.R.R. (a

2006 Fareb



In-City Trip
All Trips, O
Long Island
Revenue s

Estimated

Commute

Estimated
Note: NJ Tra

D. Reduc
                               B. Free or Reduce-Fare Transit                                                     C. Cordon Entry Fee and F

                               A. Existing Conditions (no entry fee, paid fares)                                  A. Existing Conditions (no




                               Page Down once for results.                                                        Page Down o




                                                                                                                  Automobiles (includes meda
7 (2006 actual).

                   $    550    Annual Auto Toll Revenue, millions (includes taxis)                    $    550    Annual Auto Toll Revenue, m


                               Transit                                                                            Transit
                   $   1,938   Annual Subway Revenue, millions                                        $   1,938   Annual Subway Revenue, millio
                   $     778   Annual Bus Revenue, millions                                           $     778   Annual Bus Revenue, millions
                   $   2,716   Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions                                 $   2,716   Total Annual Transit Revenu


                   $     -     Taxi Surcharge                                                         $     -     Taxi Surcharge
                     521,000   Daily Taxi Trips                                                         521,000   Daily Taxi Trips
                   $    9.61   Average Per-Trip Revenue                                               $    9.61   Average Per-Trip Revenue
                               from Schaller 2006 Taxi Fact Book, sourced in Taxi worksheet.                      from Schaller 2006 Taxi Fact Book
                   $   1,652   Total Medallion Taxi Revenues (millions)                               $   1,652   Total Medallion Taxi Revenues

                   $   3,266   Total Revenue (per year, millions)                                     $   3,266   Total Revenue (per year, mill

                               B. Changed Conditions (still no entry fee, but reduced/free transit)               B. Changed Conditions (en
              Automobiles (excludes medallion taxis)                                                                 Automobiles (excludes meda
  518,900     Tolled Vehicle Trips (per weekday)                                                      564,600        Tolled Vehicle Trips (per weekd
   $16.00     Average Toll                                                                             $16.00        Average Toll
   No         Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?                                                   No            Are Cordon Fees Varied by Tim
   $16.00     Effective Average Toll                                                                   $16.00        Effective Average Toll
$   8,302     Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands                                                 $   9,034        Average Daily Toll Revenue, th
$   2,740     Annual Auto Toll Revenue, millions (excludes taxis)                                   $   2,981        Annual Auto Toll Revenue, m

              Trucks                                                                                                 Trucks
    70,000    Tolled Truck and Bus Trips, per weekday (assumes no attrition despite tolling)               70,000    Tolled Truck and Bus Trips, pe
     5,000    of which Buses, which we leave untolled, are estimated to comprise:                           5,000    of which Buses, which we leave
              from Buses worksheet, rounded up.                                                                      from Buses worksheet, rounded up
     65,000   leaving this many Truck Trips                                                                 65,000   leaving this many Truck Trips
          2   Assumed ratio of new toll to that for automobiles                                                  2   Assumed ratio of new toll to tha
    $32.00    Average Toll                                                                                 $32.00    Average Toll
    No        Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?                                                       No        Are Cordon Fees Varied by Tim
    $32.00    Effective Average Toll                                                                       $32.00    Effective Average Toll
$    2,080    Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands                                                 $       2,080    Average Daily Toll Revenue, th
$      686    Annual Truck Toll Revenue, millions                                                   $         686    Annual Truck Toll Revenue, m

              Transit                                                                                                Transit
 4,541,000    Subway Trips (per weekday)                        Figures at right                     5,122,400       Subway Trips (per weekday)
$     1.29    Average Effective Subway Fare                     overstate transit                        $0.00       Average Effective Subway Fare
$    1,938    Annual Subway Revenue, millions                   ridership because they              $      -         Annual Subway Revenue, millio
 2,247,000    Bus Trips (per weekday)                           reflect carrot (cordon               2,742,000       Bus Trips (per weekday)
$     1.05    Average Effective Bus Fare                        fee) and stick (of free                  $0.00       Average Effective Bus Fare
$      778    Annual Bus Revenue, millions                      or reduced-fare transit)            $      -         Annual Bus Revenue, millions
$    2,716    Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions            instead of carrot alone.            $      -         Total Annual Transit Revenu

              Taxi Surcharge                                                                                         Taxi Surcharge
  521,000     Daily Taxi Trips                                                                        518,000        Daily Taxi Trips
$   11.65     Per-trip revenue                                                                      $    9.61        Per-trip revenue
$   2,004     Annual Taxi Revenue, millions                                                         $   1,643        Annual Taxi Revenue, millions
$     352     NYC revenue (from taxi fare surcharge), millions                                                       NYC revenue (from taxi fare s

$    6,494    Total Revenue, millions                                                               $       3,667    Total Revenue, millions

              C. Reduced or Eliminated Fares for In-City Rides on Commuter RR's

              This study envisions, and assumes, equalizing fares for all intra-city rides on the Long
              Island Rail Road and Metro-North, to the fares on adjacent subway lines. (This is to
              ensure "fare equity" and also to allow transit users to choose between rail and subway
              based on convenience and schedule rather than price.

              Thus, our plan will result in a reduction in the current LIRR/Metro-North revenue stream,
              which we estimate here. All data and calculations are by Joseph Clift, a member of the
              study team and a former director of planning for LIRR. Joe developed his calculations in a
              large (3 MB) spreadsheet which is too unwieldy to incorporate into this spreadsheet, and
              which we therefore excerpt and reference instead (directly below).

              Metro-North (all dollars are in thousands)

              2006 Farebox Revenue                                                                  $ 434,650
              "MTA Metro-North November Financial Plan 2008-2011, Accrual Statement of Operations by
              Category, p. V-129. (nets miscellaneous ticket sales revenues so as to leave farebox rev.)

              City-Station-to-City-Station Ticket Sales Revenue, Oct. 2006                          $        898
All Station-to-Station Ticket Sales Revenue, Oct. 2006                                $    37,956
Metro-North "2006 October Ticket Sales Data"
Revenue share, in-city rides as a % of all rides, Oct. 2006                                 2.36%

Estimated Revenue, in-city rides, 2006 (12 months)                                    $    10,300

L.I.R.R. (all dollars are in thousands)

2006 Farebox Revenue                                                                  $ 457,400
"MTA Long Island Railroad November Financial Plan, 2008-2011, Accrual Statement of Operations
by Category," p. V-92.

In-City Trips, Oct. 2006                                                              $     3,254
All Trips, Oct. 2006                                                                  $    29,875
Long Island Rail Road Station Sales by Ticket Type Reporting Group, Month = October 2006
Revenue share, in-city rides as a % of all rides, Oct. 2006                                10.89%

Estimated Revenue, in-city rides, 2006 (12 months)                                    $    49,800

Commuter Rail Lines, combined

Estimated Revenue, in-city rides, 2006 (12 months)                                    $    60,100
Note: NJ Transit has no service entirely within NYC, so is not included here.

D. Reduced or Eliminated Fares for MTA Bus Co.

As with in-city commuter rail, discussed above, this study assumes equalizing fares for all
in-city bus. This is to ensure "fare equity" and also to allow transit users to choose
between NYC Transit buses and buses operated by MTA Bus Co. (primarily express
buses) based on convenience and schedule rather than price.

MTA Bus Co. (MTABC) was created as a subsidiary of the MTA in Sept. 2004, under an
agreement with the City of New York, in order to maintain service by seven private bus
companies. Under the agreement, NYC pays MTABC the difference between the cost of
operation of the bus routes and all revenues and subsidies received by MTABC. Thus, the
costs of MTABC operations are 100% reimbursable by the City. The transition of service
began on Jan. 3, 2005 and was completed on Feb. 20, 2006. Upon completion, MTABC
was operating over 1,250 buses serving approximately 350,000 riders daily. MTABC
operates 46 local routes in the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens, and 35 premium-fare
express routes between those boroughs and Manhattan. Source: MTA 2007 Budget (see

MTA Bus Co. Estimated Revenue, 2007 (12 months, in thousands)                         $ 137,502
MTA 2007 Budget, section entitled MTA Bus Company, 2008 Final Proposed Budget, November
Financial Plan 2008-2011, p. V-327. Available at http://mta.info/mta/budget/nov2007/part7.pdf. Same
source reports 2006 revenue to have been $125.135 million.
C. Cordon Entry Fee and Free Transit, combined

A. Existing Conditions (no entry fee, paid fares)




Page Down once for results.




Automobiles (includes medallion taxis)


Annual Auto Toll Revenue, millions (includes taxis)             $    550



Annual Subway Revenue, millions                                 $   1,938
Annual Bus Revenue, millions                                    $     778
Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions                          $   2,716


Taxi Surcharge                                                  $     -
Daily Taxi Trips                                                  521,000
Average Per-Trip Revenue                                        $    9.61
from Schaller 2006 Taxi Fact Book, sourced in Taxi worksheet.
Total Medallion Taxi Revenues (millions)                        $   1,652

Total Revenue (per year, millions)                              $   3,266

B. Changed Conditions (entry fee, reduced/free transit)
Automobiles (excludes medallion taxis)
Tolled Vehicle Trips (per weekday)                                                 428,800
Average Toll                                                                        $16.00
Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?                                              No
Effective Average Toll                                                              $16.00
Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands                                            $   6,861
Annual Auto Toll Revenue, millions (excludes taxis)                              $   2,264


Tolled Truck and Bus Trips, per weekday (assumes no attrition despite tolling)        70,000
of which Buses, which we leave untolled, are estimated to comprise:                    5,000
from Buses worksheet, rounded up.
leaving this many Truck Trips                                                          65,000
Assumed ratio of new toll to that for automobiles                                           2
Average Toll                                                                          $32.00
Are Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?                                                No
Effective Average Toll                                                                $32.00
Average Daily Toll Revenue, thousands                                            $     2,080
Annual Truck Toll Revenue, millions                                              $       686


Subway Trips (per weekday)                                                        5,122,400
Average Effective Subway Fare                                                         $0.00
Annual Subway Revenue, millions                                                  $      -
Bus Trips (per weekday)                                                           2,742,000
Average Effective Bus Fare                                                            $0.00
Annual Bus Revenue, millions                                                     $      -
Total Annual Transit Revenue, millions                                           $      -

Taxi Surcharge
Daily Taxi Trips                                                                     518,000
Per-trip revenue                                                                 $     11.65
Annual Taxi Revenue, millions                                                    $     1,992
NYC revenue (from taxi fare surcharge), millions                                 $       340

Total Revenue, millions                                                          $     3,290
Cost-Benefit               1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This spreadsheet catalogues and compares the societal costs and benefits of the combined cordon toll and free transit.
Note: Explanatory notes are omitted in most cases where values are derived from other worksheets.

Policy assumptions underlying these results are shown in "User May Change" column of Summary worksheet.

                                                                                                     Annual $, NYC only, millions
                                                                                                  Values in parentheses denote net loss
                                                                                                        Gains       Losses      Net Gain
Governmental Agencies' Costs and Benefits
A. Motor Vehicle Tolls ("losses" are existing tolls to be netted from new toll regime)                $2,950         $550        $2,400
B. Transit Revenues ("losses" are vs. current farebox; "gains," if any, are vs. zero fare)                $0        $2,720      ($2,720)
C. Commuter Rail Revenues (from discounting in-city rides as per subway fare)                             $0           $60         ($60)
D. MTA Bus Co. Revenues (from discounting as per bus fare)                                                $0         $140         ($140)
E. Taxi Revenues (surcharge on medallion cabs)                                                         $340                        $340
F. Expanded CBD curbside parking charges                                                               $700                        $700
G. Operational savings from eliminating subway and/or bus farebox                                      $170                        $170
H. Cordon Administration                                                                                              $50          ($50)
I. Facilities/Operations to Serve Increased Transit Ridership                                                        $180         ($180)
SUBTOTAL                                                                                               $4,160       $3,700          $460

Economic, Social and Environmental Costs and Benefits
A. Motor vehicle users' saved time that was previously lost in traffic             Components          $3,870                     $3,870
 1. All m.v. users within the CBD                                      33%               $1,270
 2. All m.v. users outside the CBD                                     49%               $1,900
 3. Bus riders' addit'l saved time, gained by fare-free board.         18%                 $700
B. Mobility Changes (more transit trips, fewer m.v. trips)                                              $220          $580        ($360)
C. Reduced crash damage costs                                                                           $420                        $420
D. Reduced driver insurance costs                                                                         $70                        $70
E. Reduced climate damage from lesser carbon emissions                                                    $40                        $40
F. Reduced air pollution health/enviro damages                                                          $290                        $290
G. Reduced noise costs                                                                                  $150                        $150
H. Longevity benefits of increased cycling and walking                                                 $1,020                     $1,020
SUBTOTAL                                                                                               $6,080         $580        $5,500

TOTAL                                                                                                 $10,240       $4,280        $5,960

Agency Costs and Benefits are derived primarily in Revenue, Transit and CBD Parking worksheets.
The remainder of this worksheet derives Economic, Social and Environmental Costs and Benefits.
Travel                      1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates changes in the number of person-trips into the CBD and citywide, due to our policies.

All trip data are 24-hour, typical weekday. Some rows are vehicle-trips, others are person-trips (we have taken pains to distinguish).

                                                                           Current                                           Kheel Plan
                                                          Trips Into or       All Other                      Trips Into or       All Other
                                                           Out of CBD             Trips        All Trips      Out of CBD             Trips
                                                              (C1)            (C2)                               (K1)            (K2)
Motor Vehicle (excludes trucks and buses)

Automobile work trips                                        800,000       2,485,000        3,285,000           526,000       2,425,000
C1 and K1 figures are 2x the respective one-way figures in Traffic worksheet. C2 nets VMT of all CBD auto trips, divides by average auto trip length, and pro
CBD trips. K2 nets C2 figure by the reduction in non-CBD auto trips estimated in Cost-Benefit worksheet.
Automobile work person-trips                                 960,000       2,982,000        3,942,000           672,000       2,910,000
All figures multiply auto trips by respective occupants per trip. Kheel Plan figures also allow for slight increase in vehicle occupancies, as auto users economi
Automobile non-work trips                                    560,000       4,969,000        5,529,000           332,000       4,850,000
Note below "Automobile work trips" (above) applies here.
Automobile non-work person-trips                             840,000       7,454,000        8,294,000           530,000       7,275,000
Note below "Automobile work person-trips" (above) applies here.
Automobile person-trips (sum of relevant rows)         1,800,000          10,436,000      12,236,000          1,202,000      10,185,000
Taxi trips                                                   240,000         281,000         521,000            234,000         272,900
C1 and K1 figures are 2x respective one-way figures in Traffic worksheet. C2 nets C1 from total daily taxi trips in Taxi worksheet. K2 applies estimated cityw
Taxi person-trips (excl. driver)                             336,000         393,000          729,000           349,000          407,000
All figures multiply taxi trips by respective occupants per trip. Kheel Plan figures also allow for slight increase in vehicle occupancies, as taxi users economize
SUBTOTAL Motor Vehicle person-trips                        2,136,000      10,829,000      12,965,000          1,551,000      10,592,000
                                                                                                                                   Percent changes:
Percent increase in avg vehicle occupancy of motor vehicle trips into the CBD
Derived in next two rows. Value is capped at 50% to prevent too-high figure if huge tolls are inputted.              6.6%

Assumed increase in vehicle occupancies of motor vehicle trips into the CBD, per $
increase in cordon toll above current level (Komanoff assumption)                                                    0.5%

Assumed average length of (one-way) NYC auto trips, miles:
Rounded value of mean auto commute distance, from Komanoff analysis of Schaller data in "Rolling
Carbon" project for Transportation Alternatives, 2007.                                                                  7

Assumed average length of (one-way) auto trips to CBD, miles:
see ref. to Komanoff-Ketcham work for "The Hours," in Traffic wrksht, Col. Block A, Section 2                          11

Assumed % of non-CBD auto trips that are for work
Komanoff assumption; primarily for display, actual % affects est. of net trips only tangentially.                    33%

Automobile VMT in NYC, typical weekday, millions of miles
based on analysis in VMT worksheet, reduced by 8% to allow for trucks and buses                                        67


                                                                           Current                                           Kheel Plan
                                                         Into/Out CBD         All Other              All    Into/Out CBD         All Other
                                                              (C1)            (C2)                               (K1)            (K2)
Transit

Subway                                                     3,472,000       1,069,000        4,541,000         4,160,000       1,390,700
C1 is 2x the figure derived in Transit worksheet, Section 3. C2 is difference between all transit trips (Ibid.) and C1. K1 increments C1 with twice the incremen
worksheet, Part 5. K2 increments C2 with subways' share of gain in non-CBD transit trips estimated in Cost-Benefit worksheet.
Bus                                                           95,000       2,152,000        2,247,000           129,000       2,473,700
Same procedure as for Subway, immediately above.
SUBTOTAL Transit person-trips                             3,567,000       3,221,000      6,788,000   4,289,000    3,864,400
                                                                                                                       Percent changes:
Assumed % of additional transit trips taken on subways
Komanoff assumption; is for display only, actual % doesn't bear on est. of net trips.                     50%

All Person-Trips (M.V. + Transit)                         5,703,000     14,050,000      19,753,000   5,840,000   14,456,400
                                                                                                                       Percent changes:
 ken pains to distinguish).

  Kheel Plan                                         Increase
                                     Trips Into or      All Other
                       All Trips      Out of CBD            Trips       All Trips




                    2,951,000          (274,000)        (60,000)      (334,000)
s by average auto trip length, and prorates result by work trips' share of non-

                    3,582,000          (288,000)        (72,000)      (360,000)
 occupancies, as auto users economize by car-pooling. See end of section.
                    5,182,000          (228,000)      (119,000)       (347,000)

                    7,805,000          (310,000)      (179,000)       (489,000)

                  11,387,000           (598,000)      (251,000)       (849,000)
                     506,900             (6,000)        (8,100)        (14,100)
worksheet. K2 applies estimated citywide reduction in taxi trips from Taxi.
                      756,000            13,000          14,000         27,000
occupancies, as taxi users economize by car-pooling. See end of section.
                12,143,000             (585,000)      (237,000)       (822,000)
          Percent changes:               -27.4%          -2.2%           -6.3%


                                    Note that % reduction in CBD auto person-trips
                                    differs slightly from % reduction in CBD auto trips
                                    shown in Summary worksheet.




  Kheel Plan                                         Increase
                             All    Into/Out CBD        All Other             All




                    5,550,700           688,000        321,700       1,009,700
ncrements C1 with twice the increments to CBD subway trips derived in Transit
 rksheet.
                    2,602,700            34,000        321,700         355,700
        8,153,400   722,000   643,400   1,365,400
Percent changes:      20.2%     20.0%       20.1%




      20,296,400    137,000   406,400    543,400
Percent changes:       2.4%      2.9%       2.8%
Traffic                     1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008                   Note: Key results are in yellow-shaded cells two screens to right.

This worksheet is the heart of the analysis. It treats the two primary policy options -- a cordon entry fee and free or reduced-fare subways
and buses -- first separately (in column "blocks" A & B) and then in combination (column block C).
The analysis rests on "elasticities" of travel demand -- the extent to which people's proclivity to travel on different modes (private vehicle,
transit) is affected by changes in both the cost to drive or use transit, and the time it takes to complete a trip.
The interactions between travel demand and travel speed require that the analysis be "dynamic." Reductions in motor vehicle use due to
road tolls (entry fees) or free transit lead to freer-flowing traffic, i.e., shorter trip times, which in turn tend to "attract" new motor vehicle
trips. Because of this interactivity, the calculations in Column Blocks A and B must be repeated until the perturbations in travel demand
peter out.

Part 1: Traffic Analysis
Sources or "bases" of all assumptions are indicated in small type like this immediately below the relevant row.
Daily data are per weekday unless noted. Annual data use a special multiplier (shown in Constants worksheet) to convert from daily.
"Motor vehicle trips" refer to vehicles; "transit trips" and "trips in motor vehicles" refer to persons.
                                                                                      Columns 2-4 display sector-specific results and/or assumptions,
                                                                                            whereas Columns 1 & 5 apply to all traffic and trips.
                                                                                       1             2             3                4
                                                                                    Generic or         Work      Non-work              Taxi
                                                                                     Common            Trips         Trips            Trips
                                                                                  Assumptions
A. Cordon Entry Fee

This "column block" estimates the effect of the cordon entry fee on trips into and within the charging zone.

0. Existing Conditions

Automobile trips into the CBD                                                          800,000
From Hub-Bound worksheet. Based on NYMTC data. Rounded to nearest 10,000. Autos only (includes taxis, excludes trucks, buses, motorcycles).
Breakdown of those trips by major category                                                                 50%             35%             15%
Taxi % is Komanoff rough est. Remaining trips are apportioned between work and non-work per total trip breakdown in H.I.S. worksheet, Section 4.
Automobile trips into CBD, broken down                                                                400,000         280,000        120,000


1. Drivers React to Higher Price to Drive

Assumed Entry Fee for Automobiles                                     Do not re-set this parameter here. Do so from Summary worksheet.
Resulting Increase in Total Out-of-Pocket Trip Cost                                                        66%             66%             21%
Work and non-work trip increases are calculated in Future Price and reflect existing tolls (which would be netted against the new entry
fee), parking to applicable extent, gas, etc. Taxi increase reflects surcharge chosen in Summary worksheet, which is partially offset by
trave-time savings that reduce waiting time charged in fare (see derivation in Taxi worksheet).
Own-price elasticity                                                                                       -50%           -90%            -22%
This parameter denotes extent to which % increases in trip prices translate into % reduxns in trips. Work and non-work figures are from Tri-State RPC
1977 study sourced in Tri-State Elasticities worksheet. Taxi elasticity is from Schaller, Bruce. “Elasticities for Taxicab Fares and Service Availability,” in
Transportation , August 1999, pp. 283-97; abstract stating that own-price elasticity is negative 0.22 is available at
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/klu/port/1999/00000026/00000003/00207883.
Share of prior trips that survive (after "processing" through own-price elasticity)                        78%             63%             96%
Calculated by inputting the increases in trip costs and price-elasticities shown above into standard formula relating demand changes to price changes.



Lost trips due to cordon entry fee, numbers (w/o bounceback, est'd dir. below)                          89,530        102,540           4,990
Lost trips due to cordon entry fee, % (w/o bounceback, est'd dir. below)                                 22.4%          36.6%            4.2%
The numbers and percentages above represent the expected reductions in automobile trips into the CBD due to the cordon entry fee. That is not the end
of the story, however. The reduction in traffic volumes will tend to attract new trips. This offsetting phenomenon is modeled directly below.
Medallion taxis' share of all auto trips into CBD lost due to cordon fee:                                                                 2.5%
2. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Reduction in Vehicles                                                             Do not re-set this parameter
This part estimates the "bounceback" effect on trips of the reduced traffic within the charging zone.         here. Do so from Summary
The next 20 or so rows are used to estimate the improvements in traffic speeds w/I the CBD.                   worksheet.
Portion of newly freed CBD road capacity made car-free (allocated to wider sidewalks, bike lanes, BRT, etc.):
Explanation and Rationale: Both the entry fee and free transit will free up road space, which we can regard as new road capacity. Automobiles will then be
able to travel faster, which will attract new trips. A policy option is to reserve some of this new capacity to non-motor vehicle uses (e.g., bus lanes, bike
lanes, wider sidewalks), which will hold down the increases in vehicle speeds and thereby suppress some of these trips. The portion of the new capacity
so allocated is reflected in the calculation of "bounceback" (newly attracted trips) in Part 2 of this column block and of Column Block B.
Motor vehicle trips into CBD, after initial price impact of entry fee                                 310,470         177,460        115,010
Calculated by deducting lost trips above, from baseline trips further above.
Share of Typical Trip Distance Occurring Inside CBD                                                        15%             15%            60%
Work and non-work figures are Komanoff assumptions based loosely on average one-way 11.3-mile trip distance into Manhattan on East River bridges
(derived in Komanoff-Ketcham report "The Hours," available at www.bridgetolls.org/research/). Taxi figure is Komanoff rough estimate based on
assumption that most taxi trips into the CBD originate near the CBD.
Share of Typical Trip Distance Occurring Outside CBD                                                       85%             85%            40%
Extent to which CBD part of trip gets to enjoy "lost trips" % just calc'd:                  75%
% shown is Komanoff est. intended to reflect imperviousness of some trips to cordon pricing (e.g., buses, trucks, uniformed services, within-CBD travel).
As a result, the % reduction in traffic volumes within the CBD will be less than % reduction in automobile trips entering CBD.
Attenuation factor for previous parameter, for non-CBD section of trip                                         3              4                 2
This factor is intended to reflect fact that some/much of a trip occurs "upstream," i.e., outside CBD, where traffic reduction, while non-zero,
will be less than that within CBD. A value of 3 (for example) indicates that outside the CBD, the reduction in traffic volumes is presumed to
be attenuated three-fold from the figure used for within the CBD. Figures shown are Komanoff estimates.
% Reduction in Ratio of Traffic Volume to Traffic Capacity for Section of Trip w/i CBD
 if no reconfiguration of street space, i.e., no "lanes" taken from service    18.5%
 with reconfiguration of street space, i.e., some lanes taken from m.v.'s       9.2%
The second of the two above rows above adjusts the actual reduction in traffic for the placing of some road capacity off-limits to m.v.'s.
% Reduction in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                                         6.2%             4.6%           9.2%
Factor by which volume % reduxn evokes speed % incrs, in CBD                                   2
Factor by which volume % reduxn evokes speed % incrs, outside                               1.25
Above factors are, in effect, an "elasticity" indicating the extent to which traffic-volume reductions are leveraged into speed improvements.
In "The Hours," which primarily addressed travel on approaches to the CBD rather than within, Komanoff and Ketcham used 1.5.
% increase in speed for trip part within CBD                                             18.5%
% increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                                              7.7%           5.8%          11.5%
% increase in overall trip speed                                                                           9.3%           7.7%          15.7%
% increase in overall trip time                                                                           -8.5%          -7.1%         -13.6%
The negative "Increases" indicate reductions in trip time. This mathematical form is used for input into elasticity formula below.
Own-time elasticity                                                                                      -100%          -124%             -50%
This variable denotes extent to which percentage increases in trip durations (times) translate into percentage reductions in trips. Work and
non-work m.v. elasticities are from Tristate 1977 study. Taxi elasticity is KEA assumption.
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                                                    109.3%          109.6%          107.6%
These percentages are calculated by inputting the increases in trip times and time-elasticities shown above into standard formula relating
demand changes to time changes. They denote the increases in traffic volumes due to the improved traffic speeds.
Increase in volume due to higher travel speeds                                                           9.3%            9.6%            7.6%
New trips due to higher travel speeds after cordon entry fee ("bounceback")                            28,900          17,000           8,700
Calculated by multiplying % volume increase times number of m.v. trips into CBD after initial price impact of entry fee.
Automobile trips into CBD, after initial "bounceback" (improved speeds)                               339,370         194,460        123,710

3. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
There is more than one round of bounceback. This part estimates "opposing bounceback" -- the reduction in trips once traffic
grows in response to reduced congestion. The methodology is identical to that in Part 2 directly above.
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps #1 and #2                                  339,370      194,460   123,710
Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                        9.3%          9.6%     7.6%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD           6.8%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                    2.3%          1.7%     3.4%
% Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                        13.6%
% Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      2.8%          2.1%     4.2%
% Reduction in overall trip speed                                                   4.4%          3.8%     9.8%
% Increase in overall trip time                                                     4.3%          3.7%     9.0%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                               95.9%     95.6%     95.8%
Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)               325,500   185,900   118,500
Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                            13,870     8,560     5,210
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                4.1%      4.4%      4.2%

4. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
This part performs another (the third) iteration of bounceback
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1, 2 & 3                                  325,500   185,900   118,500
Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                          4.1%      4.4%      4.2%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             3.2%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  1.1%      0.8%      1.6%
% Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                             6.3%
% Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      1.3%      1.0%      2.0%
% Increase in overall trip speed                                                   2.1%      1.8%      4.6%
% Decrease in overall trip time                                                    2.0%      1.8%      4.4%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                              102.1%    102.2%    102.3%
Automobile trips into CBD, after latest "bounceback" (improved speeds)          332,200   190,000   121,200
Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             6,700     4,100     2,700
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                2.1%      2.2%      2.3%

5. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
This part estimates another iteration of "opposing bounceback"
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 4                               332,200   190,000   121,200
Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                       2.1%      2.2%      2.3%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             1.6%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.5%      0.4%      0.8%
% Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                            3.2%
% Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                     0.7%      0.5%      1.0%
% Reduction in overall trip speed                                                  1.1%      0.9%      2.3%
% Increase in overall trip time                                                    1.0%      0.9%      2.3%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                               99.0%     98.9%     98.9%
Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)               328,800   187,900   119,800
Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             3,400     2,100     1,400
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                1.0%      1.1%      1.2%

6. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
This part performs another (the fifth) iteration of bounceback
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 5                               328,800   187,900   119,800
Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                          1.0%      1.1%      1.2%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             0.8%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.3%      0.2%      0.4%
% Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                             1.6%
% Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      0.3%      0.3%      0.5%
% Increase in overall trip speed                                                   0.5%      0.5%      1.2%
% Decrease in overall trip time                                                    0.5%      0.5%      1.2%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                              100.5%    100.6%    100.6%
Automobile trips into CBD, after latest "bounceback" (improved speeds)          330,500   189,000   120,500
Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             1,700     1,100       700
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                0.5%      0.6%      0.6%

7. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
This part again estimates "opposing bounceback" -- the sixth iteration
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 6                               330,500   189,000   120,500
Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                       0.5%      0.6%      0.6%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             0.4%
% Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.1%      0.1%      0.2%
% Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                            0.8%
% Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                                       0.2%          0.1%           0.3%
% Reduction in overall trip speed                                                                    0.3%          0.2%           0.6%
% Increase in overall trip time                                                                      0.3%          0.2%           0.6%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                                                 99.7%         99.7%          99.7%
Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)                                 329,600       188,500        120,100
Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                                                 900           500            400
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                                  0.3%          0.3%           0.3%

8. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
This part estimates the seventh and last iteration of bounceback (further perturbations are small and may be ignored).
Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 7                                  329,600    188,500      120,100
Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                             0.3%         0.3%        0.3%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD              0.2%
% Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                      0.1%         0.1%        0.1%
% Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                              0.4%
% Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                         0.1%         0.1%        0.1%
% Increase in overall trip speed                                                      0.1%         0.1%        0.3%
% Decrease in overall trip time                                                       0.1%         0.1%        0.3%
New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                                 100.1%      100.1%      100.2%
Automobile trips to CBD, after latest BB (improved speeds)                         330,100    188,800      120,300
Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step" (see Note 1 below)               500          300         200
Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                   0.2%         0.2%        0.2%

Total (net) decline in m.v. trips to CBD, after accounting for BB (see Note 1)                     69,900         91,200           (300)
Total (net) decline expressed as % of original trips                                                  17%            33%         -0.25%
Decline %, expressed as % of Stage-1 (pre-BB) decline                                                 78%            89%            -6%
Net Bounceback Factor                                                                                 22%            11%            N.A.

Note 1: Cells in designated rows have been programmed to return a nominal value of 10 in the event the computed value yields zero. This will avoid a
zero result entering another cell as a denominator.
d cells two screens to right.

e or reduced-fare subways


 nt modes (private vehicle,


n motor vehicle use due to
ract" new motor vehicle
bations in travel demand




t) to convert from daily.


 sults and/or assumptions,                                                                                           Columns 2-4 display sector-specific results and/or assum
o all traffic and trips.                                                                                                   whereas Columns 1 & 5 apply to all traffic and trips
                         5                                                                                            1             2             3
                           Total                                                                                   Generic or         Work      Non-work
                           Trips                                                                                    Common            Trips         Trips
                                                                                                                 Assumptions
                                   B. Free or Reduced-Fare Transit

                                   This "column block" estimates the effect of free or reduced-fare transit on trips into and within the charging zone.

                                   0. Existing Conditions

                                   Automobile trips into the CBD                                                     800,000
ks, buses, motorcycles).           Sourced in column block to left.

 . worksheet, Section 4.
                      800,000      Automobile trips into CBD, broken down                                                            400,000        280,000
                                   Derived in column block to left.

                                   1. Drivers React to free or reduced-fare transit (by reducing the number of automobile trips into the CBD)

                           $16     Increase in transit trips into CBD, resulting from free or reduced-fare transit                   127,898        144,125
                                   These numbers are derived in Transit worksheet. They reflect both the "price" and "time" inducements from eliminating transit fares.
                                   Cross-elasticity of automobile demand w/r/t changes in transit use                                     95%            50%
                                   This complicated-sounding parameter is intended to capture the extent to which an increase in a transit trip shown above came at the expen
                                   automobile trip, as opposed to replacing a trip by a non-motorized mode, or replacing no trips at all (since some new transit trips may corres
                                   brand-new travel). Technically, the parameter denotes the % change in auto volume per % change in transit volume caused by changes in t
es are from Tri-State RPC          costs or travel times. Source: Tri-State Elasticities worksheet. Cross-elasticity for transit time (53%) has been reduced to 50% for simplicity.
s and Service Availability,” in    Decrease in person-trips in automobiles into CBD due to transit gains                  121,500         72,100
                                   % of above decreases that is taken from taxis:                   5% Est'd as taxis' share of cordon-fee-caused losses, times:
                                   Because the X-elasticity for taxi trips isn't known, transit trips taken from taxi trips must be estimated separately. Above % is Komanoff roug
                                   Decrease in trips in m.v.'s into CBD due to transit gains, by m.v. trip type                      115,425          68,495
changes to price changes.          Vehicle occupancy rates                                                                                1.2             1.5
                                   Work and non-work figures are Komanoff rough estimates. Taxi figure is from Bruce Schaller, "NYC Taxi Fact Book" (see Taxi worksheet).
                                   Decrease in automobile trips into CBD due to transit gains                          Figures in the next two rows convert person-trips int
                      197,060      Lost automobile trips into CBD due to free or reduced-fare transit, numbers                        96,200          45,663
                        24.6%      Lost automobile trips into CBD due to free or reduced-fare transit, %                               24.1%           16.3%
entry fee. That is not the end     Numbers and %'s above represent expected reductions in m.v. trips into CBD due to availability of free or reduced-fare subways and buses.
directly below.                    not the end of the story, however. The reduction in traffic volumes will attract new trips. This offsetting phenomenon is modeled directly belo
  Do not re-set this parameter    2. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Reduction in Vehicles
  here. Do so from Summary        This part estimates the "bounceback" effect on trips of the reduced traffic within the charging zone.
  worksheet.                      The next 20 or so rows are used to estimate the improvements in traffic speeds w/I the CBD.
                          50%     Portion of newly freed CBD road capacity to be made car-free (allocated to wider sidewalks, bike lanes, BRT, etc.):
acity. Automobiles will then be   This parameter is explained in the text block directly to left. For consistency, its value should be set equal to the value chosen at left for the
 uses (e.g., bus lanes, bike      analysis, but there is no a priori reason it could not be set independently -- except that a single value must be used for the combined-policy a
e portion of the new capacity     right.
 n Block B.
                     602,940      Automobile trips into CBD, after initial price impact of reduced-fare transit                      303,800        234,337
                                  Calculated by deducting lost trips above, from baseline trips further above.
                                  Share of Typical Trip Distance Occurring Inside CBD                                                     15%            15%
attan on East River bridges
h estimate based on               See explanation in Column Block A, to left.

                                  Share of Typical Trip Distance Occurring Outside CBD                                                    85%            85%
                                  Extent to which CBD part of trip enjoys traff. reduxn calc'd above:                     75%
services, within-CBD travel).     See explanation in Column Block A, to left.
.
                                  Shrinkage factor for previous parameter, for non-CBD section of trip                                        3              4

                                  See explanation in Column Block A, to left.


                 <--- Note:       % Reduction in Ratio of Traffic Volume to Traffic Capacity for Section of Trip w/i CBD
                 Since street      if no reconfiguration of street space, i.e., no "lanes" taken from service 13.9%
                 space is          with reconfiguration of street space, i.e., some lanes taken from m.v.'s    7.0%
                                  See explanation in Column Block A, to left.
                 only
                                  % Reduction in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                                      4.6%            3.5%
                 reappor-
                                  Factor by which volume % reduxn evokes speed % incrs, in CBD                                2
                 tioned once,
                                  Factor by which volume % reduxn evokes speed % incrs, outside                             1.3
                 this is the      See explanation in Column Block A, to left. Here, the factor for speed changes outside the CBD is slightly greater since transit trips
                 only step in     tend to originate closer to the CBD, where congestion is more severe.
                 which the        % increase in speed for trip part within CBD                                          13.9%
                 Volume-to-       % increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                                          6.0%            4.5%
                 Capacity         % increase in overall trip speed                                                                       7.2%            5.9%
                 ratio is         % increase in overall trip time                                                                       -6.7%           -5.6%
                 altered          See explanation in Column Block A, to left.
                 (reduced).       Own-time elasticity                                                                                   -100%          -124%
                                  See explanation in Column Block A, to left.

                                  New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                                                 107.2%          107.4%
                                  See explanation in Column Block A, to left.

                        9.2%      Increase in volume due to higher travel speeds                                                        7.2%            7.4%
                      54,600      New trips due to higher travel speeds after cordon entry fee ("bounceback")                         22,000          17,400
                                  Calculated by multiplying % volume increase times number of m.v. trips into CBD after initial impact of eliminating transit fare.
                     657,540      Automobile trips into CBD, after initial "bounceback" (improved speeds)                            325,800        251,737

                                  3. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
tion in trips once traffic        There is more than one round of bounceback. This part estimates "opposing bounceback" -- the reduction in trips o
.                                 traffic grows in response to reduced congestion. The methodology is identical to that in Part 2 directly above.
                  657,540         Automobile trips into CBD after Steps #1 and #2                               325,800      251,737
                      9.1%        Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                      7.2%          7.4%
                                  % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD        5.3%
                                  % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  1.8%          1.3%
                                  % Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                      10.6%
                                  % Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                    2.3%          1.7%
                                  % Reduction in overall trip speed                                                 3.5%          3.1%
                                  % Increase in overall trip time                                                   3.4%          3.0%
          New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                               96.7%     96.4%
629,900   Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)               315,000   242,800
 27,640   Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                            10,800     8,937
   4.2%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                3.3%      3.6%

          4. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
          This part performs another (the third) iteration of bounceback
629,900   Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1, 2 & 3                                  315,000   242,800
   4.2%   Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                          3.3%      3.6%
          % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             2.6%
          % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.9%      0.6%
          % Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                             5.1%
          % Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      1.1%      0.8%
          % Increase in overall trip speed                                                   1.7%      1.5%
          % Decrease in overall trip time                                                    1.7%      1.5%
          New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                              101.7%    101.8%
643,400   Automobile trips into CBD, after latest "bounceback" (improved speeds)          320,400   247,300
 13,500   Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             5,400     4,500
   2.1%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                1.7%      1.9%

          5. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
          This part estimates another iteration of "opposing bounceback"
643,400   Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 4                               320,400   247,300
   2.1%   Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                       1.7%      1.9%
          % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             1.3%
          % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.4%      0.3%
          % Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                            2.7%
          % Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                     0.6%      0.4%
          % Reduction in overall trip speed                                                  0.9%      0.8%
          % Increase in overall trip time                                                    0.9%      0.8%
          New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                               99.1%     99.1%
636,500   Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)               317,600   245,000
  6,900   Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             2,800     2,300
   1.1%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                0.9%      0.9%

          6. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
          This part performs another (the fifth) iteration of bounceback
636,500   Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 5                               317,600   245,000
   1.1%   Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                          0.9%      0.9%
          % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD             0.7%
          % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.2%      0.2%
          % Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                             1.4%
          % Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      0.3%      0.2%
          % Increase in overall trip speed                                                   0.5%      0.4%
          % Decrease in overall trip time                                                    0.5%      0.4%
          New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                              100.5%    100.5%
640,000   Automobile trips into CBD, after latest "bounceback" (improved speeds)          319,000   246,200
  3,500   Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             1,400     1,200
   0.5%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                0.4%      0.5%

          7. Drivers React to Lower Travel Speeds due to Increase in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
          This part again estimates "opposing bounceback" -- the sixth iteration
640,000   Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 6                               319,000   246,200
   0.5%   Increase in trips compared to pre-bounceback                                       0.4%      0.5%
          % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD          0.4%
          % Increase in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                  0.1%      0.1%
          % Reduction in speed for trip part within CBD                         0.7%
                                % Reduction in speed for trip part outside CBD                                   0.2%        0.1%
                                % Reduction in overall trip speed                                                0.2%        0.2%
                                % Increase in overall trip time                                                  0.2%        0.2%
                                New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                             99.8%       99.7%
                      638,200   Automobile trips into CBD, after this "bounceback" (lower speeds)             318,300     245,600
                        1,800   Decrease in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                             700         600
                         0.3%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step              0.2%        0.2%

                                8. Drivers React to Higher Travel Speeds due to Decrease in Vehicles associated with "Bounceback"
may be ignored).                This part estimates the seventh and last iteration of bounceback (further perturbations are small and may be ignore
                      638,200   Automobile trips into CBD after Steps 1 through 7                               318,300     245,600
                         0.3%   Decrease in trips estimated in prior step                                          0.2%        0.2%
                                % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip w/i CBD           0.2%
                                % Decrease in Traffic Volume for the Section of Trip outside CBD                   0.1%        0.0%
                                % Increase in speed for trip part within CBD                           0.4%
                                % Increase in speed for trip part outside CBD                                      0.1%        0.1%
                                % Increase in overall trip speed                                                   0.1%        0.1%
                                % Decrease in overall trip time                                                    0.1%        0.1%
                                New volume as % of old, due to higher travel speeds                              100.1%      100.1%
                      639,200   Automobile trips to CBD, after latest BB (improved speeds)                      318,700     245,900
                        1,000   Increase in automobile trips estimated in this "step"                               400         300
                         0.2%   Above, expressed as a percentage of trips at the start of this step                0.1%        0.1%

                      160,800   Total (net) decline in m.v. trips to CBD, after accounting for BB              81,300       34,100
                        20.1%   Total (net) decline expressed as % of original trips                              20%          12%
                          82%   Decline %, expressed as % of Stage-1 (pre-BB) decline                             85%          75%
                          18%   Net Bounceback Factor                                                             15%          25%

elds zero. This will avoid a
ector-specific results and/or assumptions,                                                                                         Columns 2-4 display sector-specific results
 s 1 & 5 apply to all traffic and trips.                                                                                                whereas Columns 1 & 5 apply to all
                          4              5                                                                                          1             2
                              Taxi         Total                                                                                                    Work
                             Trips         Trips                                                                                                    Trips

                                                   C. Cordon Entry Fee and free or reduced-fare Transit, combined

d within the charging zone.                        This "column block" estimates the effect of the cordon fee + free or reduced-fare transit combined on tr

                                                   0. Existing Conditions

                                                   Automobile trips into the CBD                                                  800,000
                                                   Breakdown of those trips by major category                                                       50%
                                                   Motor vehicle trips into CBD, broken down                                                    400,000
                                                   Above cells are sourced near top of Column Block A.
                     120,000         800,000

                                                   Important Note: Owing to the overlap between motor vehicle trips eliminated by the entre fee and trips a
mobile trips into the CBD)                         reduced-fare transit, special care must be taken to calculate the joint effect of combining the entry fee a

                                     272,023       This is best accomplished by multiplying the respective percentages of surviving trips from the separat
om eliminating transit fares.                      eliminates double-counting of the two types of lost trips. The steps are laid out directly below.
                     unknown
 p shown above came at the expense of an           Percentage of trips surviving despite cordon entry fee (from Column Block A)                      83%
 some new transit trips may correspond to          Percentage of trips surviving despite free or reduced-fare transit (from Col. Block B)            80%
 sit volume caused by changes in transit           Above cells are calculated directly from results shown at bottom of Column Blocks A and B.
 een reduced to 50% for simplicity.                Cross-products (close approximation to joint percent of surviving trips)                          66%
                                     193,600       X-products eliminates double-counting by employing the Rule of Complements from Probability Theory. (Think of Venn Diagr
 on-fee-caused losses, times: 2                    Double-counting avoided by not simply adding percentages of destroyed trips                        4%
arately. Above % is Komanoff rough est.
                        9,680                      Surviving trips (number)                                                                     263,000
                           1.4                     Eliminated trips (number)                                                                    137,000
Fact Book" (see Taxi worksheet).                   Eliminated trips (percents)                                                                      34%
t two rows convert person-trips into m.v. trips
                        6,914        148,778                                                                                                        Work
                         5.8%          18.6%                                                                                                        Trips
 reduced-fare subways and buses. That is
enomenon is modeled directly below.
arging zone.

ike lanes, BRT, etc.):                    50%
 to the value chosen at left for the entry-fee
t be used for the combined-policy analysis at



                      113,086         651,222

                           60%



                           40%



                               2




                                   <--- Note:
                                   Since street
                                   space is
                                   only
                          7.0%
                                   reappor-
                                   tioned once,
 greater since transit trips
                                   this is the
                                   only step in
                                   which the
                           9.1%    Volume-to-
                          12.0%    Capacity
                         -10.7%    ratio is
                                   altered
                          -50%     (reduced).


                         105.8%


                          5.8%           7.1%
                         6,600         46,000
minating transit fare.
                      119,686         697,222

 with "Bounceback"
ck" -- the reduction in trips once
n Part 2 directly above.
                   119,686     697,222
                      5.8%         7.1%

                          2.6%

                          3.4%
                          7.7%
                          7.2%
               96.6%
             115,600   673,400
               4,086    23,822
                3.4%      3.4%

d with "Bounceback"

             115,600   673,400
                3.4%      3.4%

                1.3%

                1.7%
                3.7%
                3.6%
              101.9%
             117,700   685,400
               2,100    12,000
                1.8%      1.8%

with "Bounceback"

             117,700   685,400
                1.8%      1.8%

                0.7%

                0.9%
                2.0%
                1.9%
               99.1%
             116,600   679,200
               1,100     6,200
                0.9%      0.9%

d with "Bounceback"

             116,600   679,200
                0.9%      0.9%

                0.3%

                0.4%
                1.0%
                1.0%
              100.5%
             117,200   682,400
                 600     3,200
                0.5%      0.5%

with "Bounceback"

             117,200   682,400
                0.5%      0.5%

                0.2%
                  0.2%
                  0.5%
                  0.5%
                 99.7%
               116,900     680,800
                   300       1,600
                  0.3%        0.2%

d with "Bounceback"
are small and may be ignored).
                116,900     680,800
                   0.3%        0.2%

                  0.1%

                  0.1%
                  0.3%
                  0.3%
                100.1%
               117,000     681,600
                   100         800
                  0.1%        0.1%

                 3,000     118,400
                    3%       14.8%
                   43%         80%
                   N.A.        20%
s 2-4 display sector-specific results and/or assumptions,
hereas Columns 1 & 5 apply to all traffic and trips.
                       3                4             5
                     Non-work              Taxi         Total
                         Trips            Trips         Trips




d-fare transit combined on trips into and w/i the charging zone.




                        35%            15%
                    280,000        120,000        800,000



ed by the entre fee and trips attracted by free or
 of combining the entry fee and free or reduced-

rviving trips from the separate analyses. This
 out directly below.

                         67%           100%            80%
                         88%            98%            85%

                         59%               98%         68%
bility Theory. (Think of Venn Diagrams.)
                           4%              0%

                    165,800        117,300        546,100
                    114,200          2,700        253,900
                        41%             2%            32%

                    Non-work             Taxi          Total
                        Trips           Trips          Trips
Transit                   1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet calculates changes in transit use due to the availability of free or cheaper transit, and a CBD cordon fee.

"Motor vehicle trips" refer to vehicles; "transit trips" and "trips in motor vehicles" refer to persons.

Some methodological notes
The analysis has to examine the CBD separately from the rest of the city, because the cordon fee affects only travel into the CBD.

                                                                                  Do not re-set cells within this box. Read note directly below about Subway Wo
                                                                                                     Subway                                        Bus
                                                                                         Overall           Work     Non-work           Overall

Proposed new fare level, as percent of current fare                                                          0%            0%
Subway and Bus work-trip fares may be re-set in Summary worksheet. Subway non-work is programmed to be same as Subway work, and ditto fo
We use percents rather than dollar values because the former are more transparent, given the complex NYC Transit fare structures.
Proposed new fares                                                                                       $0.00         $0.00
These are calculated from the above percents and "Current Transit Fares" below. Note that current fares are far less than the nominal $2.00 "base."

1. Basic Transit Ridership, Fare and Revenue Data (All data are current conditions, i.e., do not reflect proposed policies, and are citywide

                                                                                                     Subway                                        Bus
                                                                                         Overall           Work     Non-work           Overall

NYC Transit ridership, 2006 (millions)                                                 1,498.6                                         741.4
Subways: http://www.mta.info/mta/ind-perform/annual/nyct-s-ridership.htm. Figure is most recent bar, labeled 2007, but presumably is 2006 since page was a
in Oct. 2007 and otherwise the graph would have omitted 2006. Buses: http://www.mta.info/mta/ind-perform/annual/nyct-b-ridership.htm.
Breakdown of above between work and non-work trips.                                                        60%           40%
Komanoff estimates. Note that the percentages pertain to all transit trips, not merely transit trips into CBD.
Weekday average ridership, 2006                                                     4,541,000        2,725,000     1,816,000      2,247,000
"Overall" figure calculated by dividing full-year ridership (above) by number of equivalent weekdays in a year (shown in Constant worksheet).
Current Transit Fares ("Fare 1")                                                         $1.29           $1.40         $1.13           $1.05
Overall subway fare is same as farebox average shown directly below. Subway fare for work trips is Komanoff estimate. Subway non-work fare was approxim
trial-and-error to ensure that implied subway revenue matches actual farebox figure directly below. Analogous procedure was done for bus fares.

Current fares are derived from farebox revenue figures directly below. While it is possible that work fares are slightly higher than non-work, we assume one le
Fare "true-up" check to ensure that calculated revenues above = actual.              $1,937.93                                         $778.60

                                                                                        Farebox                                      Farebox
Revenues from "2006 Final Estimate," MTA Feb. 2007 Financial Plan,                      Revenue       Ridership       Implied        Revenue
available at http://www.mta.info/mta/budget/pdf/adopted07_5.pdf                        (Millions)     (Millions)        Fare        (Millions)
                                                                                    $1,937.90          1,498.6         $1.29        $778.10

2. Elasticities (sensitivities of transit usage to price (fare) and service (travel time))
Non-technical readers should skip this section, except perhaps for last data row, "Combined instant ridership gain …"

                                                                                                     Subway                                        Bus
                                                                                         Overall           Work     Non-work           Overall
Price-Elasticity Assumptions and Intermediate Calculations
Ridership 1 (normalized, i.e., set to 100)                                                   100            100          100              100
Transit own-price elasticity (sourced in Tri-State Elasticities).                                         -9.0%       -23.4%

Ridership 2 (normalized, calculated from point fare elasticity                                            109.0         123.4
"Instant" ridership gain due to changed fare (price effect), % (w/o bounceback)                           9.0%         23.4%
                                                                                                    In the event Ridership 1 = Ridership 2, four cells above "re
Time-Elasticity Assumptions and Intermediate Calculations                                           tiny positive # to avoid zero as divisor in other cells.
Transit own-time elasticity (sourced in Tri-State Elasticities).                                           -50%         -55%
Reduction in travel time due to eliminating fare collection                                                  3%           2%
Travel time reductions for subways are Komanoff-Haikalis estimates, in lieu of data from MTA (despite proffering several requests), and are intended to reflec
but real savings from eliminating MetroCard purchase and use and from speeding egress from subway stations. Travel time reductions for buses are derived
2A, directly to right.
"Instant" ridership gain due to free fare (time effect), % (w/o bounceback)                             1.5%         1.1%

Combined "instant" ridership gain from free fare (both effects), % (w/o b-back)                        10.5%        24.5%
Calculated as sum of two separate gains calculated above, minus products, to eliminate possible double-counting in simply adding gains from lower fare and

3. Transit Trips to the CBD, 24h, weekday (All data are current conditions, i.e., do not reflect proposed policies, and are citywide.)

This section estimates transit trips that cross into and terminate in the CBD. The subway part is done by first prorating total weekday subwa
the percentage that end in the CBD, and then apportioning these between work and non-work. The bus part is done by importing the estima
number of local bus trips that enter the CBD (from Buses worksheet), and apportioning those between work and non-work.
                                                                                                                   Not needed for buses, since
Percent of subway trips that cross into and terminate in the CBD                 38% (subway)                      bound bus trips are est'd dir
Derived in H.I.S. worksheet. Note that since only half of subway trips are inbound, the percentage shown corresponds to twice as high a share of inbound trip
                                                                                     Subway                                           Bus
Total transit trips that cross into and terminate in the CBD, per day              1,736,000                                        47,600
Subway figure is Subway % directly above, times total daily subway trips further above. Bus figure is taken directly from Bus worksheet.
Percentage of CBD-bound transit trips that are work:                                                   68.5%        31.5%
Derived in H.I.S. worksheet. The subway %'s are based on all trips into the CBD from NYC outside the CBD. Bus %'s are based on CBD-bound trips from Up
Manhattan only, since essentially all of those are local buses, whereas the vast majority of CBD-bound bus trips from other boroughs are express buses.
We now separate the CBD-bound subway and bus trips into work and non-work.
                                                                                                  Subway                                         Bus
                                                                                       Overall          Work    Non-work            Overall

Estimated daily transit trips now arriving in the CBD                              1,736,000     1,190,000       546,000          47,600

4. Increased Transit Trips to the CBD from free or reduced fare (24h, weekday)
Data in this section pertain only to free fare (cordon fee is ignored for now).

Incrs in transit trips from free fare (prior to incorporating bounceback) 258,500                   124,800      133,700          13,523
Shares of free-fare-caused increases, broken down in 2x2 matrix                                         46%          49%
Shares of work increases broken down by subway/bus; ditto for non-work                                  98%          93%

These figures must now be adjusted (reduced) due to bounceback -- the extent to which faster car travel induces more of it (see fuller descr
Traffic worksheet, Section 2). More transit trips means fewer auto trips, though for several reasons the reductions are considerably less tha
The analysis is carried out in Traffic worksheet, in Column Block "B." The result there that is pertinent here is the bounceback factor, which
here to prorate (downward) the increase in transit trips due to free or reduced-fare transit.

Net Bounceback Factor (derived in Column Block "B" of Traffic. See long note directly above).            20%
This denotes the percent by which the increases just derived must be reduced, to reflect the dynamic interplay between autos and transit.
Increase in transit trips into the CBD, resulting from free transit (with bounceback), 24h, weekday
Broken down as follows:
Shares are calc'd with percentage shares from Section 3.                 Work            Work      Non-work     Non-work
                                                                       Subway             Bus       Subway           Bus        Combined
                                                                       99,300           2,466       106,400         8,296        216,462

5. Increased Transit Trips to the CBD from cordon fee (24h, weekday)
Note: This section will employ the cross-elasticity of transit trips w/r/t auto trips (The reverse cross-elasticity, auto w/r/t transit, was used in T
See Tri-State Elasticities worksheet for source as well as explanation of cross-elasticity and its relevance.

Total (net) decline in m.v. trips to CBD, after accounting for bounceback                                       160,800
from the Traffic worksheet.
                                                                                         Work      Non-work     Combined
Breakdown of these trips (excludes taxis)                                                 50%            35%          85%
from the Traffic worksheet.
Breakdown with taxi trips apportioned to either category                                59%            41%           100%
Total (net) decline in m.v. trips to CBD                                             94,600         66,200
Vehicle occupancy rates                                                                  1.2            1.5
Decline in person trips in m.v. to CBD                                              113,520         99,300
Change in Transit Volume per Change in
Auto Volume caused by change in Auto Cost                                               95%            50%
Increase in transit trips resulting from cordon fee (24h)                           107,800         49,700       157,500
Broken down as follows:
                                                                        Work            Work      Non-work       Non-work
                                                                      Subway             Bus       Subway             Bus
                                                                     105,200           2,611        46,100          3,595

6. Increased Transit Trips to the CBD from both cordon fee and free/reduced transit (24h, weekday)

We cannot simply sum the respective increases from Sections 4 & 5, because of the likelihood that this would double-count some transit trip
would arise from both the "carrot" and the "stick." (In Traffic, we adjusted [reduced] the analogous sums to avoid a similar double-counting
procedure is to calculate percentage increases and deduct the cross-products.)

                                                                        Work            Work      Non-work       Non-work
                                                                      Subway             Bus       Subway             Bus
% increase in transit trips from free/reduced fare                      7.3%            0.5%         11.7%           0.7%
% increase in transit trips from cordon fee                             7.7%            0.6%          5.1%           0.3%
Cross-products                                                          0.6%         0.003%           0.6%        0.002%
Sum, less cross-products                                               14.4%            1.1%         16.2%           1.1%
Adjusted sum as percent of unadjusted sum                              96.3%          99.7%          96.5%         99.8%
Unadjusted totals                                                    204,500          5,077        152,500        11,891          373,968
Adjusted totals (from both "carrot" and "stick")                     196,800          5,100        147,100        11,900          360,900

7. Calculations of Increased Transit Trips and Reduced Motor Vehicle Trips, Citywide (24h, weekday)

                                                                                                 Subway                                          Bus
                                                                                   Combined            Work      Non-work        Combined
Weekday ridership gain from free fare (without bounceback)                          730,600        285,800       444,800          622,000

Bounceback: % of these increases that will be lost because roads will now offer faster car trips ("bounceback," discussed/derived above)

Weekday ridership gain from free fare (with bounceback)                             581,400       227,400        354,000         495,000
Note: It may be of interest to compare the two boxed figures in the preceding row, to see whether the free fare attracts more passengers to subwa

Current weekday subway and bus ridership (copied from above)                      4,541,000                                     2,247,000

Percent increase in passengers                                                           13%                                           22%

8. Calculation of Decreased Auto Trips Citywide due to Free or Reduced-Fare Transit (24h, weekday)

Note that not every "attracted" transit trip equates to an "eliminated" car trip, for two reasons: (i) some transit
trips replace "not traveling"; and (ii) some motor vehicles have more than one person.

Instant weekday reduxns in trips in motor v's, due to free fare (w/ b-back)                       216,030        177,000
Average motor vehicle occupancies                                                        1.35         1.35           1.35              1.35
Calculated as simple average of work and non-work occupancies estimated in Traffic worksheet.
Instant weekday reduxns in m.v. trips from free fare (w/ b-back)                    291,100       160,000        131,100         227,300

This figure is taken from the net (final) bounceback percentage for m.v. trips into CBD under free transit, derived and shown in Traffic and Revenue. Ideally,
would be derived through an iterative process such as performed for trips into CBD in that worksheet. However, this would require enormous work, particularl
estimating non-CBD bounceback. We believe the shortcut used here is an acceptable proxy.
Net weekday reduxns in m.v. trips from free fare (w/ bounceback)                    231,663       127,331        104,332         180,890
9. Further Examination of Increased Transit Trips to Reveal Their Hourly Distribution

Some of the increased transit users will seek to travel during the peak hour (8-9 a.m.) and hours (7-10 a.m.), adding stress to the already st
transit system. Here we sift the increases derived in the previous sections, which are for a 24h period, to infer estimates of the peak distribu
results will be inputted in the Assignments worksheet, which distributes the increased transit riders among the different portals to the CBD.

Repeat of results from Part 4
Increase in transit trips into the CBD, resulting from free transit (with bounceback), 24h, weekday
                                                                  Work          Work     Non-work      Non-work
                                                                Subway           Bus      Subway            Bus      Combined
                                                                99,300         2,466      106,400        8,296        216,462
Relevant cross-elasticity, which will determine the
number that came from automobiles                                  95%           95%          50%          50%
Number that came from autos                                     94,300         2,300       53,200        4,100        153,900

Repeat of results from Part 5
Increase in transit trips resulting from cordon fee, 24h, weekday
                                                                  Work          Work     Non-work      Non-work
                                                                Subway           Bus      Subway            Bus
All of these came from autos (by definition)                  105,200          2,611       46,100        3,595        157,506

10. Summation of Previous Section (note: use percentages only, since figures here aren't netted for double-counting carrot and stick)

Unadj. increase in transit trips into CBD, 24h                204,500          5,077      152,500       11,891        373,968
Number of above that came from autos, 24h                     199,500          4,911       99,300        7,695        311,406
Percentage of new transit riders coming from autos              97.6%          96.7%        65.1%        64.7%          83.3%
Percentage of new transit riders not from autos                  2.4%           3.3%        34.9%        35.3%          16.7%
travel into the CBD.

 directly below about Subway Work Level.
                     Bus
                          Work    Non-work

                           0%           0%
e as Subway work, and ditto for buses.
uctures.
                       $0.00        $0.00
e nominal $2.00 "base."

 sed policies, and are citywide.)

                     Bus                       Combined
                          Work    Non-work

                                                     2,240.0
umably is 2006 since page was accessed
dership.htm.
                          40%         60%

                    899,000      1,348,000      6,788,000
stant worksheet).
                       $1.20        $0.95
way non-work fare was approximated via
s done for bus fares.

han non-work, we assume one level, for simplicity.



                                                      Farebox
                    Ridership       Implied           Revenue     Implied
                    (Millions)        Fare           (Millions)     Fare
                       741.4        $1.05       $2,716.00         $1.21

                                               2A. Buses Time Savings from Fare-Free Boarding + Improved Travel Speeds
                                               This subsection estimates the impact on bus trip times from the combination of fare-free boarding and
                                               improved traffic flow. The first part relies on a spreadsheet created by MTA staff as part of their early
                     Bus                       planning effort for Bus Rapid Transit, which was informally provided to us in Sept. 2007. The twelve
                          Work    Non-work     modeled scenarios included several involving fare prepayment, one of which would be analogous to free
                                               transit, and which is shown below in Column C.
                         100           100
                       -9.0%        -23.4%                                                                                       A           B
                                               Est. Impact of Fare-Free Boarding
                       109.0         123.4     Total Observed Time for "A" (in minutes and seconds)                    56m 17s
                       9.0%         23.4%      Total Trip Time Observed for "A" (in seconds)                               3,377
Ridership 2, four cells above "return" a       Dwell Time (in minutes and seconds)                                     16m 16s   14m 54s
o as divisor in other cells.                   Dwell Time (in seconds)                                                       976      894
                          -50%       -55%      Saved Dwell Time (in seconds)                                                           82
                           20%        20%      Saved Dwell Time, % of Dwell Time                                                     8.4%
uests), and are intended to reflect modest      Implied Traveling Time (in seconds)                                                    2,401
reductions for buses are derived in Section     Saved Dwell Time, % of Total Trip Time                                                                2.4%
                                                "A" is current situation, observed w/ stopwatch by MTA. All data here apply to Bx12 Limited from 207th St. to Coop City.
                       11.8%            13.1%   "B" assumed low-floor buses with alighting restricted to the rear door.
                                                "C" assumed low-floor articulated buses w/ 3 doors, alighting and boarding permitting at each door, and prepayment.
                       18.4%            33.8%   Add Impact of Reduced Traffic
adding gains from lower fare and faster trip.   % Reduction in Travel Time due to Kheel Plan reduced traffic                            9.2%
                                                Saved Time from Reduced traffic                                                          222           222
es, and are citywide.)                          Travel Time w/ Kheel Plan VMT (in seconds)                                             2,179         2,179
                                                Total Trip Time w/ Kheel Plan VMT (in seconds)                                         3,155         3,073
rorating total weekday subway trips by          Total Time Saved w/ Kheel Plan (in seconds)                                                            304
 done by importing the estimated                Same as Above, as %                                                                                   9.0%
nd non-work.                                    Reduce this Result for Conservatism (since BX12 route on which modeling was based has greater dwell time than
  Not needed for buses, since CBD-              average (it is system's 5th busiest); and also on general principles)
  bound bus trips are est'd directly.           MTA calculation of time saving (due to fare-free boarding)
ce as high a share of inbound trips.            MTA recommendation of time saving result to apply (due to fare-free boarding)
                                                Implied MTA factor by which to reduce time saving:
                                                Est'd Total Time Saving from Kheel Plan (counting fare-free-boarding +
                                                reduced traffic) if apply MTA factor for conservatism)
                       35.3%            64.7%   Above, rounded
 sed on CBD-bound trips from Upper              Note: Above cell ("rounded") had to be partially "hard-wired" in order to avoid circularity from basing bus time savings
boroughs are express buses.                     on traffic reduction which is based on bus usage (and reduced car usage) which itself is based on bus time savings.
                                                While the 21.2% result is based on a 9.1% reduction in travel time (and 10% reduction in citywide VMT), the same cell
                     Bus                        yields 20.0% down to a travel time saving of 6.7%, i.e., the 20% result that we use in our citywide modeling is fairly
                         Work      Non-work     robust. Note also that we applied the MTA conservatism factor to travel time as well as dwell time.

                      16,800           30,800    1,783,600




                       3,098           10,425       272,023
                          1%               4%
                          2%               7%

es more of it (see fuller description in
ons are considerably less than 1-for-1.
he bounceback factor, which we use



 between autos and transit.




uto w/r/t transit, was used in Traffic).
double-count some transit trips that
oid a similar double-counting. The




                         97%



                     Bus                       Combined
                         Work     Non-work
                    165,800        456,200     1,352,600

 discussed/derived above)                           20%

                    131,900       363,100      1,076,400
cts more passengers to subway or bus.




                    125,305       181,550
                        1.35          1.35

                     92,800       134,500       518,400

 in Traffic and Revenue. Ideally, the figure
equire enormous work, particularly for

                     73,852       107,038       412,552
 dding stress to the already strained
estimates of the peak distribution. The
e different portals to the CBD.




counting carrot and stick)
re-free boarding and
 s part of their early
 2007. The twelve
ld be analogous to free


                          C




              2m 36s
                   156
                   820
                 84.0%
                     24.3%
 from 207th St. to Coop City.

ch door, and prepayment.   % Reduction if same
                           boarding, i.e., reflects
                           only reduced traffic
                       222          6.6%
                     2,179      Note: Above cell had to
                     2,335      be "hard-wired" from its
                     1,042      original calculation as
                     30.8%      quotient of "Saved Time
as greater dwell time than      from Reduced Traffic"
                                above and to left, by
                     21.8%      "Total Trip Time
                     15.0%      Observed for 'A' further
                                above, in order to avoid
                     31.2%
                                circularity from basing
                     21.2%
                                bus time savings on
                       20%      traffic reduction which is
                                based on bus usage
m basing bus time savings       (and reduced car usage)
 sed on bus time savings.       which itself is based on
 ywide VMT), the same cell      bus time savings.
 ywide modeling is fairly
 l time.
                                                                              Column Block "A"                                                                                            Column Block "A-1"                                          Column Block "B"                                            Column Block "B-1"                                 Column Block "C"                                    Column Block "C-1"                                  Column Block "D" (and D-1)
                                These columns reflect 2005 subway ridership volumes and current NYC Transit operations                                                                Columns use V/C =       0.86         These columns net avail. rail and bus seats from 2005 riders in Block "A" Columns use V/C =             0.86 Addit'l   Columns add 05-07 growth plus "swell" from our         plan         Columns use V/C =0.86
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Addit'l          These columns determine whether tracks can handle riders under both criteria                  Inputs for Block "C"
                                                                                                                                                                            Added                                                                         Rider                           Addit'l                          Addit'l Cars/hr to                                                                                    Trains/hr    Addit'l                                         Can the                  Trains
                                                                                                                                                                Added     Cars per                                                         Available   Volume                 Excess   Trains/hr     Addit'l   Excess  Trains/hr reach V/C                                                     Addit'l                   Excess to reach Cars/hr to                                              alter-   Excess         that Cars that        Est'd
                                                                                                                                                            Trains per     hour to      Excess     Addit'l   Addit'l         Available     Capacity   after off-  Volume/      Riders   to reach Cars/hr to     Riders   to reach        value      2007              V/C Ratio     Excess     Trains       Addit'l       Riders criterion      reach                     Can the Trains/Hr     native     riders    won't be won't be         Rider
                                                                                                                              Volume-to-                       hour to   reach 1.0       Riders Trains/hr   Cars/hr          Capacity     on Nearby    loading    Capacity over V/C =      1.0 w/ reach 1.0 (using V/C V/C value     above w/ Riders w/        Est.'d Riders w/ Riders w/ per hour        Cars per     over V/C     w/ off- criterion Feasible              1.0 be  needed criterion          that        run       run      Growth               Cars per
                                                                               Cars                                Actual       Capacity     Excess         reach V/C      (may be       (using to reach to reach          on Parallel    Bus Lines       onto    Ratio w/ 1.0 w/ off-   Comm. w/ Comm.          value  above w        Comm. off-loading Riders w/ off-loading off-loading to reach        hour to     criterion    load +     w/ the Number Trains/Hr    met w/i to reach     be met       Track    because because         Factor,       Swell       hour
                             Hourly Rider Volume                                per                 Trains per    Capacity          Ratio     Riders             = 1.0    high due    V/C value V/C value V/C value        Commuter      (Bus V/C =    parallel off-load to   load to Rail + Bus Rail + Bus above) w/     Comm. Rail + Bus       but w/o off-loading    and the      + swell V/C = 1.0   reach 1.0    above, w/      Swell      Swell of Trains needed      Track the alter- w/i Track       can't      track     track      2005 to     Growth (current,
Portal           Subway             (2005)                         Capacity    Train    Capacity      Hour        (hourly)        ("V/C") (using V/C         (rounded            to     shown (rounded (may be              Rail Lines         1.00) Commuter       Comm.     Comm. (rounded       (may be     Comm. Rail + Bus       (may be the Swell      and the Swell (Note (using V/C (rounded      (may be     off-load + (rounded   (may be per Hour to reach         con-    native      con-    accom-        can't     can't         2007      factor i.e., Case
          Line                     (Note 1)             Division   per Car     (avg)    per Train    (Note 2)     (Note 3)         (2005)      = 1.0)              up)   rounding)      above)        up)     high)           (Note 4)      (Note 5) RR + Bus Rail + Bus Rail + Bus           up)     high) Rail + Bus (rnd'd up)        high)   (Note 6)      Swell          7)       = 1.0)     up)        high)    the Swell        up)      high)  (Note 1)     1.0   straint? criterion  straint?    modate      handle    handle      (Note 6)    (Note 7)        "1")


  North of 60th St.
            1                       17,587                 A          110        10       1,100         16         17,600            1.00             0             0            0      2,502             3          30            94         284      17,208       0.98           0          0          0      2,123           2         20     17,533     18,620        1.06      1,021          1            10      3,535          4        40     28        17        YES        20        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.061        160
            2                       13,100                 A          110        10       1,100         12         13,200            0.99             0             0            0      1,786             2          20          354          142      12,604       0.95           0          0          0      1,290           2         20     12,846     13,656        1.03        456          1            10      2,342          3        30     14        13        YES        15        NO          456            1        10        0.018       0.061        120
            3                       12,119                 A          110        10       1,100         12         13,200            0.92             0             0            0        805             1          10          354          142      11,623       0.88           0          0          0       309            1         10     11,847     12,596        0.95           0         0             0      1,282          2        20     14        12        YES        14        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.061        120
          A,D                       20,843                 B          145        10       1,450         16         23,200            0.90             0             0            0        958             1          10          472          879      19,492       0.84           0          0          0        -             0          0     19,878     21,166        0.91           0         0             0      1,281          1        10     28        16        YES        17        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.061        160
          B,C                       11,918                 B          145       9.08      1,316         11         14,478            0.82             0             0            0        -               0           0            47           57     11,814       0.82           0          0          0        -             0          0     12,034     12,771        0.88           0         0             0        362          1         9     28        11        YES        12        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.061        100
            4                       15,915                 A          110        10       1,100         14         15,400            1.03          515              1          10       2,715             3          30        1,651          816      13,449       0.87           0          0          0       249            1         10     13,743     14,726        0.96           0         0             0      1,527          2        20     14        14        YES        16        NO        1,526            2        20        0.018       0.061        140
            5                       14,525                 A          110        10       1,100         13         14,300            1.02          225              1          10       2,268             3          30        1,651          771      12,103       0.85           0          0          0        -             0          0     12,372     13,269        0.93           0         0             0      1,013          1        10     13        13        YES        14        NO        1,012            1        10        0.018       0.061        130
            6                       26,883                 A          110        10       1,100         22         24,200            1.11        2,683              3          30       6,141             6          60            94        2,043     24,746       1.02        547           1         10      4,004           4         40     25,243     26,904        1.11      2,705          3            30      6,162          6        60     27        25        YES        28        NO        1,447            1        10        0.018       0.061        220
         Queens
            E                       21,657                 B          145        10       1,450         15         21,750            1.00             0             0            0      3,015             3          30        2,021          453      19,183       0.88           0          0          0       541            1         10     19,583     20,978        0.96           0         0             0      2,336          2        20     16        15        YES        17        NO        1,092            1        10        0.018       0.063        150
            F                       16,612                 B          145        10       1,450         13         18,850            0.88             0             0            0        455             1          10        2,021          301      14,290       0.76           0          0          0        -             0          0     14,597     15,667        0.83           0         0             0        -            0         0     14        13        YES        13        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        130
          N, W                      17,100                 B          145        10       1,450         14         20,300            0.84             0             0            0        -               0           0          441          834      15,824       0.78           0          0          0        -             0          0     16,141     17,242        0.85           0         0             0        -            0         0     28        14        YES        14        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        140
           R                         8,861                 B          145        10       1,450         10         14,500            0.61             0             0            0        -               0           0          441              0     8,420       0.58           0          0          0        -             0          0      8,583      9,154        0.63           0         0             0        -            0         0     28        10        YES        10        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        100
            V                        6,800                 B          145        10       1,450         9.8        14,210            0.48             0             0            0        -               0           0                           0     6,800       0.48           0          0          0        -             0          0      6,926      7,364        0.52           0         0             0        -            0         0     12        10        YES        10        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         98
         7 Exp                      13,916                 A          110        11       1,210         13         15,730            0.88             0             0            0        434             1          11        2,337         2,321      9,258       0.59           0          0          0        -             0          0      9,515     10,411        0.66           0         0             0        -            0         0     14        13        YES        13        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        143
            7                       12,153                 A          110        11       1,210         13         15,730            0.77             0             0            0        -               0           0                           0    12,153       0.77           0          0          0        -             0          0     12,378     13,160        0.84           0         0             0        -            0         0     14        13        YES        13        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        143
     North B'klyn
            L                       17,879                 B          145        8        1,160         15         17,400            1.03          479              1            8      2,965             3          24                       150      17,729       1.02        330           1          8      2,816           3         24     18,060     19,205        1.10      1,476          2            16      4,291          4        32     30        17        YES        19        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        120
         J,M,Z                      12,855                 B          145        8        1,160         17         19,720            0.65             0             0            0        -               0           0          243            75     12,537       0.64           0          0          0        -             0          0     12,775     13,598        0.69           0         0             0        -            0         0     28        17        YES        17        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        136
     South B'klyn
          A,C                       22,297                 B          145       9.53      1,381         24         33,149            0.67             0             0            0        -               0           0                         73     22,224       0.67           0          0          0        -             0          0     22,636     24,064        0.73           0         0             0        -            0         0     28        24        YES        24        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        229
            F                       13,436                 B          145        10       1,450         14         20,300            0.66             0             0            0        -               0           0                       301      13,135       0.65           0          0          0        -             0          0     13,383     14,244        0.70           0         0             0        -            0         0     14        14        YES        14        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        140
            B                       11,091                 B          145        10       1,450          9         13,050            0.85             0             0            0        -               0           0                         28     11,063       0.85           0          0          0        -             0          0     11,268     11,978        0.92           0         0             0        793          1        10     14         9        YES        10        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         90
           D                         9,744                 B          145        10       1,450          9         13,050            0.75             0             0            0        -               0           0                       834       8,910       0.68           0          0          0        -             0          0      9,090      9,714        0.74           0         0             0        -            0         0     14         9        YES         9        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         90
            N                       11,188                 B          145        10       1,450          9         13,050            0.86             0             0            0            3           1          10                       834      10,354       0.79           0          0          0        -             0          0     10,561     11,277        0.86           0         0             0            92       1        10     14         9        YES        10        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         90
           Q                         9,966                 B          145        10       1,450          9         13,050            0.76             0             0            0        -               0           0                      1,668      8,298       0.64           0          0          0        -             0          0      8,482      9,120        0.70           0         0             0        -            0         0     14         9        YES         9        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         90
           M                         3,140                 B          145        8        1,160          6          6,960            0.45             0             0            0        -               0           0                         75      3,065       0.44           0          0          0        -             0          0      3,123      3,324        0.48           0         0             0        -            0         0     28         6        YES         6        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063         48
           R                         7,162                 B          145        10       1,450         10         14,500            0.49             0             0            0        -               0           0                           0     7,162       0.49           0          0          0        -             0          0      7,294      7,753        0.53           0         0             0        -            0         0     28        10        YES        10        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        100
           2,3                      14,767                 A          110        10       1,100         19         20,900            0.71             0             0            0        -               0           0                       284      14,483       0.69           0          0          0        -             0          0     14,756     15,701        0.75           0         0             0        -            0         0     26        19        YES        19        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        190
           4,5                      19,904                 A          110        10       1,100         23         25,300            0.79             0             0            0        -               0           0                      1,586     18,318       0.72           0          0          0        -             0          0     18,686     19,961        0.79           0         0             0        -            0         0     26        23        YES        23        YES          -             0         0        0.018       0.063        230


TOTALS                              383,418                                                             368        467,077                       3,902              6          58       24,047        28             275      12,222       14,951     356,245                   877           2         18     11,332          14        134    363,333    387,626                  5,658          7            66     25,016         28       271     556                                                 5,534           6        60                                3,606
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          "A" Division "B" Division
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           matches sum in                                                                                                                                                                                 Additional cars that would need to run in peak hour, if sufficient track capacity:                       271          180           91
(1) Measured at peak load point in peak 60-minutes, a.m. period, Spring and Fall Average, 2005). From internal MTA worksheet, "A.M. Peak 60-Min Peak Load Point V/Summary Spring & Fall 2005 Average,"                     Commuter Rail, Pt 5.                                                                                                                                                                                Additional cars that will need to run in peak hour, given track constraints:                        211          130           81
provided in response to Kheel Study Team FOIL request.
(2) Actual average number of trains in 8-9 a.m. peak hour. "Hub-Bound Travel Report 2005," Section B pages III-11, III-13, III-14 and III-17 (NYMTC, 2007).
(3) Capacity of actual trains based on MTA loading guidelines. From internal MTA worksheet, "A.M. Peak 60-Min Peak Load Point V/Summary Spring & Fall 2005 Average," provided in response to Kheel Study Team FOIL request.
(4) Derived in Commuter Rail. Assumes passengers have access to commuter lines upstream of peak load point on subways.
(5) Many cells in this column had to be divided by two to avoid assigning single bus runs to subways entering CBD from opposite directions. We will devise an automatic assignment procedure in a later iteration.
(6) 2005 to 2007 ridership growth factor is based on NYC job growth, shown in Pop & Employ worksheet.
(7) "Swell" growth factors are from Reassignments. They reflect incrs in peak-hour transit usage and the partially offsetting incrs in bicycle commuting.

                                                                                                                                                                                      This value is inputted in
                                                                                                                                                                                      Summary worksheet. Do not
                                                                                                                                                                                      change here.
Buses                 1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet derives weekday hourly passenger arrivals on local buses into the CBD, by subtracting express bus passenger arrivals from

All data in this worksheet were provided by Joe Clift, who took them from the 2004 Hub Bound Travel Report.

                                                       LOCAL BUS TRANSIT BY SECTOR (Passenger Arrivals in CBD)
                                                                   RECAPITULATION, 2004-INBOUND

                       60th Street Sector          Brooklyn Sector           Queens Sector          NJ Sector
   HOUR                    BUS PSGRS               BUSES PSGRS               BUSES PSGRS          BUSES PSGRS
 12-1 am                      35          191                 2       7            8       38            0          0
         2                    15           37                 2       0            2        2            0          0
         3                    10           19                 2       1            0        0            0          0
         4                     9           20                 2       2            0        0            0          0
         5                    13           60                 2       0            0        0            0          0
         6                    46          404                 1      14            1       25            0          0
         7                    94        1,219                 5      64            7      195            0          0
         8                   146        3,608                 7     182           11      299            0          0
         9                   177        6,366                 7     212           12      307            0          0
        10                   148        4,254                 5     139           12      214            0          0
        11                   117        2,528                 6     157           11      213            0          0
  12 noon                    114        2,314                 6     160            9      162            0          0
     1 pm                    120        2,680                 5      98           13      222            0          0
         2                   118        2,432                 6     105           10      123            0          0
         3                   121        2,333                 7     112           10      185            0          0
         4                   126        2,584                 8     128            6       96            0          0
         5                   147        3,188                 8      77           10      115            0          0
         6                   130        2,954                 7      82           10      109            0          0
         7                   120        2,192                 6      53           12       94            0          0
         8                   104        1,264                 4      19           12       75            0          0
         9                   100          950                 3      34           14       32            0          0
        10                    79          683                 2      16           10       43            0          0
        11                    73          558                 2      14            9       43            0          0
   12 mid                     55          427                 2      10            8       41            0          0

   TOTAL                   2,217      43,265            107        1,686         197    2,633            0          0


                                                                             BUS TRANSIT BY SECTOR
                                                                           RECAPITULATION, 2004-INBOUND

                       60th Street Sector          Brooklyn Sector           Queens Sector          NJ Sector
   HOUR                    BUS PSGRS               BUSES PSGRS               BUSES PSGRS          BUSES PSGRS
 12-1 am                      42          344             2            7          12       55           60     1,086
         2                    15           37             2            0           2        2           32       659
         3                    10           19             2            1           0        0           12        73
         4                     9           20             2            2           0        0           18        92
         5                    13           60             5          133           0        0           32     1,170
         6                    52          603            36        1,468           2       50          128     4,687
         7                   116        1,986           138        5,299          27      868          476    17,803
         8                   202        5,291           273       11,839         116    4,043          866    33,334
         9                   222        7,426           206        8,935         167    6,068          988    34,284
        10                   175        4,617            72        2,725          73    1,920          520    15,052
        11                   137        2,846            29          914          44      772          282     7,261
  12 noon                    133        2,561            23          541          29      437          231     5,102
     1 pm                    139        2,927            21          449          27      465          218     4,261
       2     137     2,699    21     415         25     295        239     3,970
       3     142     2,760    24     464         21     305        287     4,662
       4     153     3,163    21     444         17     170        410     6,405
       5     188     4,252    19     278         26     205        562     8,572
       6     202     4,943    16     198         22     181        480     7,581
       7     160     3,344    10     149         17     125        398     6,429
       8     130     1,899     9      46         23     130        331     5,151
       9     117     1,357     5      69         23      81        229     3,307
      10      96       923     4      50         18      75        173     2,664
      11      85       718     4      52         16      63        146     3,180
  12 mid      66       585     2      10         16      64        109     2,623

 TOTAL      2,741   55,380   946   34,488       723   16,374     7,227   179,408


                                      Same as above, but Express Buses only

12-1 am        7       153     0        0         4       17        60     1,086
        2      0         0     0        0         0        0        32       659
        3      0         0     0        0         0        0        12        73
        4      0         0     0        0         0        0        18        92
        5      0         0     3      133         0        0        32     1,170
        6      6       199    35    1,454         1       25       128     4,687
        7     22       767   133    5,235        20      673       476    17,803
        8     56     1,683   266   11,657       105    3,744       866    33,334
        9     45     1,060   199    8,723       155    5,761       988    34,284
       10     27       363    67    2,586        61    1,706       520    15,052
       11     20       318    23      757        33      559       282     7,261
 12 noon      19       247    17      381        20      275       231     5,102
    1 pm      19       247    16      351        14      243       218     4,261
        2     19       267    15      310        15      172       239     3,970
        3     21       427    17      352        11      120       287     4,662
        4     27       579    13      316        11       74       410     6,405
        5     41     1,064    11      201        16       90       562     8,572
        6     72     1,989     9      116        12       72       480     7,581
        7     40     1,152     4       96         5       31       398     6,429
        8     26       635     5       27        11       55       331     5,151
        9     17       407     2       35         9       49       229     3,307
       10     17       240     2       34         8       32       173     2,664
       11     12       160     2       38         7       20       146     3,180
  12 mid      11      158     0        0         8       23        109    2,623

 TOTAL       524    12,115   839   32,802       526   13,741     7,227   179,408
ss bus passenger arrivals from total bus passengers.




 Arrivals in CBD)
D

                ALL SECTORS                 ALL NYC SECTORS
                BUSES PSGRS                 BUS PSGRS
                      45        236           45          236
                      19         39           19           39
                      12         20           12           20
                      11         22           11           22
                      15         60           15           60
                      48        443           48          443
                     106      1,478          106        1,478
                     164      4,089          164        4,089
                     196      6,885          196        6,885
                     165      4,607          165        4,607
                     134      2,898          134        2,898
                     129      2,636          129        2,636
                     138      3,000          138        3,000
                     134      2,660          134        2,660
                     138      2,630          138        2,630
                     140      2,808          140        2,808
                     165      3,380          165        3,380
                     147      3,145          147        3,145
                     138      2,339          138        2,339
                     120      1,358          120        1,358
                     117      1,016          117        1,016
                      91        742           91          742
                      84        615           84          615
                      65        478           65          478

                   2,521     47,584        2,521       47,584




D

                 ALL SECTORS                ALL NYC SECTORS
                   BUS PSGRS                BUS PSGRS
                     116      1,492           56          406
                      51        698           19           39
                      24         93           12           20
                      29        114           11           22
                      50      1,363           18          193
                     218      6,808           90        2,121
                     757     25,956          281        8,153
                   1,457     54,507          591       21,173
                   1,583     56,713          595       22,429
                     840     24,314          320        9,262
                     492     11,793          210        4,532
                     416      8,641          185        3,539
                     405      8,102          187        3,841
         422      7,379    183      3,409
         474      8,191    187      3,529
         601     10,182    191      3,777
         795     13,307    233      4,735
         720     12,903    240      5,322
         585     10,047    187      3,618
         493      7,226    162      2,075
         374      4,814    145      1,507
         291      3,712    118      1,048
         251      4,013    105        833
         193      3,282     84       659

       11,637   285,650   4,410   106,242


only

           71     1,256     11        170
           32       659      0          0
           12        73      0          0
           18        92      0          0
           35     1,303      3        133
          170     6,365     42      1,678
          651    24,478    175      6,675
        1,293    50,418    427     17,084
        1,387    49,828    399     15,544
          675    19,707    155      4,655
          358     8,895     76      1,634
          287     6,005     56        903
          267     5,102     49        841
          288     4,719     49        749
          336     5,561     49        899
          461     7,374     51        969
          630     9,927     68      1,355
          573     9,758     93      2,177
          447     7,708     49      1,279
          373     5,868     42        717
          257     3,798     28        491
          200     2,970     27        306
          167     3,398     21        218
         128     2,804      19       181

        9,116   238,066   1,889    58,658
Taxis                     1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

Part A of this worksheet compiles parameters related to medallion taxicabs that are used in other worksheets.
Part B examines the impact of our proposals on the number of medallion taxi trips.
Part C estimates the change in the number of fares per hour enabled by the higher travel speeds.

Part A. Taxi Parameters (before implementing Kheel Plan)

Annual Revenue, millions, 2005                                                                 $     1,820
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 34: "Taxicabs generated $1.82 billion in fare
revenue in 2005." http://www.schallerconsult.com/taxi/taxifb.pdf.
Weekday Daily Revenue, 2005                                                                    $ 5,515,000
Taxi ridership, millions, 2005 (number of fare trips, not number of passengers)                        172
NY Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 3

Taxi ridership, daily (weekday), 2005 (# of fare trips, not # of passengers)                       521,000
Passengers per trip                                                                                    1.4
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 3: "With an average of 1.4 passengers per trip …,"
http://www.schallerconsult.com/taxi/taxifb.pdf.

Per-trip revenue                                                                               $      9.61
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 1: "The average fare is $9.61 for a 2.8 mile trip, or
$11.44 when surcharges and tips are included (taking into account the November 2006
increase in wait time)." http://www.schallerconsult.com/taxi/taxifb.pdf. Note, however, that
dividing $5,515,000 daily revenue by 730,000 daily trips yields $7.55.

Average trip length, miles                                                                             2.8
Same as above.

Assumed average trip length for taxi trips beginning and/or ending in CBD, miles                       2.0
Komanoff estimate.

Assumed average trip length for taxi trips that don't relate to CBD, miles                             6.0
Algebra.(what non-CBD trips must average for 100% of trips to be average above).

Wait time included in an average taxi trip, minutes                                                   4.77
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 16. "Including surcharges and a 15% tip, the
average fare is $11.44 for a 2.8 mile trip with 4.77 minutes wait time."

Cost (fare) per minute of wait time.                                                           $      0.40
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 16.

Cost of wait time in a typical taxi trip                                                       $      1.91
Percent of typical taxi fare (w/o tips or surcharges) attributable to wait time                       20%
Upper bound of same percentage, for short trips in Midtown                                            36%
Calculated from parameters in New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 16. "A typical short
trip that stays within Midtown Manhattan averages 1.13 miles with 6.1 minutes waiting time
and costs $6.80."

Est'd % of typical taxi fare in CBD attributable to wait time, for this analysis                      28%
Mean of two percentages directly above.

Percentage of taxi VMT spent cruising                                                                 39%
New York Taxicab Fact Book, 2006, p. 19, "39% of total cab mileage, a total of 314 million
miles, was spent cruising for passengers in 2005."

Above %, rounded sharply down, to reflect presumed lower cruising in CBD                              30%
Percentage of taxi VMT spent with fares (passengers)                                                  70%
Multiplier to fare miles to calculate total taxi miles                                                1.43
Part B. Impact of Kheel Plan on Number of Taxi Rides
All figures are for typical weekday.

1. First consider trips that have at least one end (start or finish) in the CBD. Note that such trips
have been reliably estimated to account for 80% of all medallion taxi trips. (New York Taxicab
Fact Book, 2006, op. cit., p. 8.) Although that datum is from 1988, there is no reason to believe it
has changed much.

Taxi rides entering the CBD, before Kheel Plan                                                    120,000
Taxi rides entering the CBD, after Kheel Plan                                                     117,300
% Surviving                                                                                           98%
% Lost                                                                                                 2%

We apply the above loss percentage to all CBD-related trips, i.e., to:                 80% of trips
See long note above, citing New York Taxicab Fact Book.

For non-CBD trips, we increase the CBD loss percent by this factor:                       2                4%
Komanoff assumption, reflect premise that taxi exemption from cordon fee helps hold down taxi losses for CBD trips.

Then the estimated overall (citywide) percentage of lost taxicab trips is:                              3%
Numerically, this translates to lost trips on a typical weekday, as follows:                       14,100
Number of lost taxi fare trips, annual, millions                                                       4.7

Part C. Change in the Number of Fares Per Cab (per hour and per shift)

1. First, we estimate the duration of a typical trip that begins or ends in CBD (minutes)
Formulas use parameters from Traffic and Cost-Benefit worksheets.

                                                                       Before          After   % imprvmnt
Average Speed (mph) (wghtd avg of CBD + non-CBD miles)                   14.8          17.5            18%
Pickup time, minutes (Komanoff assumption)                               0.25          0.25
Dropoff time, minutes (Komanoff assumption)                               0.5           0.5
Travel time, minutes (Calculation)                                        8.1           6.9            15%
Total time, minutes                                                       8.9           7.6            14%
Time lost cruising between fares, minutes                                 3.5           2.9
"Before" time prorates fare time by non-cruising % of VMT. "After" time does same but adjusts latter for
faster travel due to less traffic.
Total time, minutes, counting time lost cruising                         12.3          10.6

2. Now estimate duration of trips that begin and end in CBD (minutes)

                                                                       Before          After   % imprvmnt
Average Speed (mph)                                                         8          10.7            34%
Pickup time, minutes                                                     0.25          0.25
Dropoff time, minutes                                                     0.5           0.5
Travel time, minutes                                                     15.0          11.2            25%
Total time, minutes                                                      15.8          11.9            24%
Time lost cruising between fares, minutes                                 6.4           4.8

3. Now estimate duration of trips that don't relate to CBD (minutes)

                                                                       Before          After   % imprvmnt
Average Speed (mph)                                                        25          27.5            10%
Pickup time, minutes                                                     0.25          0.25
Dropoff time, minutes                                                     0.5           0.5
Travel time, minutes                                                     14.4          13.1                9%
Total time, minutes                                                      15.2          13.8                9%
Time lost cruising between fares, minutes                                   6.2          5.6

4. Now apply weights to the three types of trips (based on "after")
Total trips                                                                                        506,933
 of which trips into CBD are:                                        117,300            23%
 so we assume trips out of CBD are:                                  117,300            23%
 non-CBD trips are:                                                   99,511            20%
 which leaves this many trips as intra-CBD:                          172,822            34%
We now weight durations of the three types of trips, by their percent shares, to calculate fares per hour and per shift
                                                                                                               Numerical
                                                                        Before          After   % imprvmnt       Change
Average Speed (mph)                                                       14.5          17.1            18%
Pickup time, minutes                                                      0.25          0.25
Dropoff time, minutes                                                      0.5           0.5
Travel time, minutes                                                      11.6           9.8            15%
Total time, minutes                                                       12.3          10.6            15%
Time lost cruising between fares, minutes                                  5.0           4.2
Total time, minutes, including cruising time                              17.3          14.8            15%

Fares per hour (including time lost cruising)                              3.5           4.1            17%
Fares per shift lasting              9 hours                              31.2          36.6            17%            5.4
Taxicab Fact Book (op. cit., p. 48) says typical shift lasts 10 hrs which includes a 50-min. break; and averages 30 fares.

Part D. Estimate of the extent to which the Fare Surcharge will be (partially) offset by reduced Wait Time

                                                                        Before          After    % Increase
Drop                                                                $    2.50     $    3.13             25%
Miles                                                               $    5.20     $    6.50             25%
Wait Time                                                           $    1.91     $    2.03              6%
TOTAL                                                               $    9.61     $   11.65             21%

Note: Wait Time "after" should be calculated as Wait Time "Before" x (1 + taxi fare increase %) x (Ratio of "After" to
"Before" Travel Time shown approx'ly a dozen rows earlier. However, this would introduce circularity in the Transit
worksheet, since the % increase in the taxi fare would be dependent on changes in traffic volumes which would be
affected by the % increase in the taxi fare (since that would influence taxi ridership and, hence, traffic volumes). To
circumvent this circularity, we have "hard-wired" the % increase in wait time charges, using an IF statement related to
the magnitude of the cordon price.
Commuter Rail                1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet is a work in progress. Some numbers are preliminary and will change as additional information is obtained by the study team

This worksheet evaluates the capability of the two comuter railroads that serve neighborhoods also served by the MTA New York City Trans
subway system – the MTA Long Island Railroad (LIRR) and MTA Metro-North Railroad – to accommodate some of the peak-hour subway ri
that will arise as a result of more affordable transit and cordon pricing. This would be provided by establishing price parity between intra-NY
commuter rail ticket prices and the price of a subway trip, down to and including free travel. Once price parity is established, subway riders w
have the option of a faster trip to the CBD from a nearby commuter rail station will shift, freeing up subway capacity for the added riders.

Conclusion: LIRR and Metro-North trains paralleling the overcrowded Lexington Ave & Queens Blvd Express subway lines have
substantial spare capacity today, and this can be further augmented in the near future. Accordingly, pricing and operational adjust
to the LIRR and Metro-North lines can provide significant relief to subway riders, even allowing for increased commuter rail riders
The analysis proceeds as follows, from the bottom of this worksheet, upwards.
Section 1 (bottom of page) separates the LIRR's Pt. Washington Branch passengers from all other passengers traveling on the Main Line, a
a differential assignment to subway lines in Section 6.
Section 2 calculates excess available LIRR and Metro-North fleet capacity -- the passenger capacity of the fleet available for use after the a
in-service requirement has been met, based on current equipment and passenger volumes.
Section 3 presents an action plan to increase commuter rail capacity into the CBD by utilizing excess available fleet capacity in the peak ho
Section 4 calculates existing available commuter rail capacity -- the additional riders that can be accommodated on existing service on LIRR
MetroNorth trains entering the CBD during the 8-9am peak hour in 2004.
Section 5 deducts the seats that will be needed to handle riders who will shift directly from automobiles to the LIRR and Metro-North.
Section 6 assigns that available existing and additional peak hour capacity on the LIRR and Metro-North to subway lines by portal into the C

6. Assignment of Available Commuter Rail Capacity to NYC Subway Lines -- based on 2004 NYMTC Hub Bound Travel Report & cu

This section assigns the available peak hour capacity on the LIRR and Metro-North to subway lines by portal into the CBD, based on an
assessment of where riders shifting to the commuter railroads would otherwise enter the CBD by subway.

All recent Hub Bound travel reports show significant to excessive available peak hour seating capacity on both LIRR & Metro-North. This av
combined with additional capacity identified in Fleet Capacity Analysis below, provides sufficient capacity to absorb demand greater than fu

                                                                                         These %'s assign available LIRR pk hr capacity to subwy l
                                                                                                  #7          E&F             J/Z
LIRR                                                                                        %'s assign LIRR pk hr capacity to subway lines
                                                                                                70%           15%            0%
Pt Wash Branch                                                                                   992           213            0
                                                                                            %'s assign LIRR pk hr capacity to subway lines
                                                                                                10%           75%            5%
Main Line                                                                                        239         1,791           119

Total LIRR                                                                                     1,231         2,003           119

Additional LIRR Capacity - from Fleet Availability Analysis (Section 3, below)                 1,107         2,039           124

LIRR Total Available Capacity                                                                  2,337         4,042           243

Metro-North

Main Metro-North Capacity ('04 Hub Bound Report)                                 4,717

Total Available Commuter Rail Cap.By Subway Assignment                        12,222           2,337         4,042           243

5. Estimation of Total Seats Available on Commuter Rail to Serve Subway Overflow                         Multiplicative factor to
                                                                                                       adjust for car commuters
L.I.R.R.                                                                                                taking some commuter
                                                                                                                rail seats
                                                                                                    Multiplicative factor to
                                                                                                  adjust for car commuters
                                                                                                   taking some commuter
                                                                                                           rail seats
A. Existing Pt Wash Branch Capacity                                    Section 4          2,952
B. Existing Main Line Capacity                                         Section 4          4,973
                                                                                                            48%
C. Total Existing LIRR Capacity                                          A+B              7,924
D. Additional Capacity - Fleet Availability Analysis                   Section 3          7,706
E. LIRR Gross Available Capacity                                         C+D             15,630

Seats Needed to Handle Former Car Commuters (from Assignments, Section 5)               (8,125)

Net Seats Available on L.I.R.R.                                                           7,505

% of Gross Seats Still Available on L.I.R.R. after netting Car Commuters                   48%

Metro-North

Existing Metro-North Capacity                                          Section 4        10,814              44%

Seats Needed to Handle Former Car Commuters (from Assignments, Section 5)               (6,097)

Net Seats Available on Metro-North                                                        4,717

% of Gross Seats Still Available on Metro-North after netting Car Commuters                44%

4. Identification of Existing Commuter Rail Capacity Within NYC - based on 2004 NYMTC Hub Bound Travel Report
This section calculates existing available capacity -- additional riders that can be accommodated on existing service -- on LIRR and MetroNo
trains entering CBD during 8-9 am peak hour in 2004. Calculations are based on reported trains and cars entering during that 60-minute pe
Capacity includes moderate standee loading on trains projected to stop at NYC rail stations. The capacity calculation is then compared to re
passengers to determine existing available capacity.

                                                             Commuter Rail Peak Hour Existing Available Capacity Analysis (8-9 a.m.)

2004 Hub Bound Report                            Trains       Cars           Psgrs   Psgrs /Car      Cap/Car       Capacity
LIRR Existing Available Capacity
- Pt Wash (est'd cars/pssngrs)                          6       64           4,589         71.7         107.8         6,901
- MainLine (est'd cars/pssngrs)                        30      300          29,131         97.1         108.7        32,604
Subtotal - LIRR                                        36      364          33,720         92.6         108.5        39,504

Metro-North Existing Available Capacity
 - Hudson Line                                     14          97           7,410         76.4
 - Harlem Line                                     16         126         10,382          82.4
 Subtotal                                          30         223         17,792          79.8        110.9      24,725
 - New Haven Line                                  20         155         13,002          83.9        118.3      18,334
 Total - Metro-North                               50         378         30,794          81.5        113.9      43,060
      If New Haven capacity
          availability* is only    35%
 Adjusted New Haven Line
 Adjusted Total - Metro-North
    Available Capacity vs 04 Hub Bound
* Moderate standees (no crowding) -- 10 passengers/car vestibule = 20/car
** Assumes that NY State's 35% share of New Haven Line operating & capital cost is limit on how much of line's capacity can be used for in
service. Also assumes removal of legal prohibition against New Haven Line's providing service intra-New York State.

                                                                                                     2004 NYMTC Hub Bound Travel Repor
                                                            6-7 am                                            7-8 am
                                                 Trains        Cars          Psgrs                     Trains      Cars
Queens Sector
LIRR
- Pt Wash (est'd cars/pssngrs)                         6
- MainLine (est'd cars/pssngrs)
Total - LIRR                                           14      126          10,640                         29           281
NEC - Amtrak                                            0        0               0                          1             6
Total - Queens Sector                                14          126           10,640                          30          287

60th Street Sector
Metro-North
- Hudson Line                                         4           22            1,050                          10           59
- Harlem Line                                         4           28            1,411                          12           90
Subtotal                                              8           50            2,461                          22          149
- New Haven Line                                      6           39            2,346                          13           97
Total - Metro-North                                  14           89            4,807                          35          246
Empire Line - Amtrak                                  1            5               97                           1            4
Total - 60 Steet Sector                              15           94            4,904                          36          250

3. Fleet Availability Analysis: Action Plan to Provide Additional 8-9am Peak Hour Capacity Into CBD - based on Available Capacity
This section presents an action plan to increase available commuter rail capacity into the CBD by utilizing excess available peak hour cars a
locomotives calculated in the next section.

Long Island Railroad (LIRR) Action Plan
In 1994, the LIRR contracted for and committed $500 million for delivery of 23 “dual-mode” (able to take power from electric third rail or an i
diesel engine) locomotives and 134 bi-level passenger trailer cars that would enable customers on 3 of the railroad’s 4 non-electrified “diese
territory” branches to travel from their home station to New York Penn Station (NYP) on a “one-seat” ride (a rail trip during which the traveler
carried between originating and destination stations on the same train in the same seat), thereby avoiding the customary but time-consumin
inconvenient transfer from an diesel locomotive-hauled train to an electrically powered train at an intermediate station.
Concurrent with this commitment to improved service for diesel-territory customers, the LIRR undertook “Schedule 99”, a blueprint for increa
the number of trains entering Penn Station in the AM peak hour from 36 in 1994 to 42 in 1999, the anticipated operational date for the dual-
fleet.

Today, eight years after the dual mode fleet went into service, only one dual-mode locomotive-hauled train arrives in NYP in the 8-9am peak
while 6 diesel-hauled trains terminate at Queens stations – L.I. City, Hunters Point Ave and Jamaica – requiring most peak-hour diesel-territ
customers to continue to transfer at Jamaica Station to complete their trip into NYP (four other dual-mode trains arrive in NYP at earlier and
times).

This analysis applies the basic operational concept of Schedule 99 – increasing the tempo of operations to move an additional 6 peak-hour
into NYP (in addition to the 37 trains now scheduled into NYP dudring 8:00-8:59am). Four of the added trains are dual-mode trains from die
territory. This will finally achieve the one-seat ride intended with the 1994 $500 million investment in dual-mode locomotives and passenger

Capacity into NYP for subway passengers shifting onto the railroad is achieved whether or not the train added to NYP is new or just reassig
from its existing terminal station in Queens. Customers on the reassigned trains now take up space on the existing electric trains they now t
to at Jamaica Station, which will be released when they stay on their now-dual-mode train and get their one-seat ride into NYP.

Fleet Availability Analysis: Actions to Provide Additional 8-9am Peak Hour Capacity Into CBD

LIRR - Electric Multiple Unit (EMU) Cars (M-3's & M-7's)
                1. Sufficient EMU cars are available to operate up to 3 additional peak-period 10-car trains (2 in the peak hour) from the inne
                Branch (Great Neck west to Woodside) into NYP.
                2. Sufficient EMU cars are available in excess of the 3 additional 10-car trains to add cars (in pairs) to existing peak period t
                LIRR stations in east and southeast Queens and the Jamaica Station hub.
                               EMU Total
LIRR - Trailer Cars (C-3's), pulled by dual-mode (DM-30) or diesel (DE-30) locomotives
                3. Sufficient trailer cars & dual mode locomotives (2 required/train) are available to operate one additional diesel territory tra
                electric territory, into NYP during the peak hour, releasing equivalent EMU capacity that can be used to serve the existing pe
                serving the 6 LIRR stations in east and southeast Queens & Jamaica.
                4. Sufficient dual-mode locomotives are available to extend one Oyster Bay train now teminating at Jamaica Station into NY
                providing additional capacity to Jamaica & the 3 LIRR stations west of Jamaica serving central Queens.
                5. Sufficient dual-mode locomotives are available to take 2 peak-hour diesel territory trains that now terminate at Hunters Po
                shift them into NYP Penn, providing additional capacity to Jamaica & the 3 LIRR stations west of Jamaica serving central Qu

                             Trailer Car Total
                                          LIRR Total

Metro-North Action Plan
There is no significant excess available peak hour Metro-North car fleet to utilize for additional peak hour capacity. Trains from diesel territo
GCT, leaving no potential for additional capacity by extending trains or shifting trains.

* Moderate standees (no crowding) = 20/car, based on 10 spaces for each vestibule, 2 vestibules per car.

2. Available Capacity (today)
This section calculates currently available LIRR and Metro-North fleet capacity for the a.m. peak.

                                                                 COMMUTER RAIL FLEET EXCESS AVAILABLE CAPACITY ANALYSIS
                                        TYPE                                        Seats/Car         # Units    OOS Ratio      Peak Avail

LIRR
                 EMU
                                M-3                                                       117            172           15%             146
                                M-7                                                       106            836           12%             736
                                          TOTAL                                         107.8         1,008                            882
                                NET AVAILABLE SEATS

                 TRAILER
                                TRAINS
                                C-3 CAB                                                   137             23           12%              20
                                C-3 REG                                                   141            111           12%              98
                                               TOTAL                                    140.0            134                           118

                 CAR TOTAL                                                                            1,142                         1,000

                 LOCOMOTIVES
                          DM-30 (dual mode)                                                               22           18%              18
                          DE-30                                                                           23           12%              20
                                                                                                          45                            38
04 HB Pk Hr 8-9am -- LIRR
              EMUs                                                                      107.8
              Trailers                                                                  140.0
                                Total                                                   108.5

* Superb maintainability of M-7 fleet, with low failure rate and high mean distance between failures, should make it possible to reduce spare ratio from a cons
** DE-30's can be substituted for 5 of the DM-30 (dual mode) A.M. requirement of 15 -- trains currently assigned do not travel into Penn Station.

                                        TYPE                                        Seats/Car         # Units    OOS Ratio      Peak Avail

METRO-NORTH
          EMU-HARLEM/HUDSON
                   M-3A                                                                   117            142           15%             120
                   M-7                                                                    106            336           10%             302
                                    TOTAL                                               109.1            478                           422
                          NET AVAILABLE SEATS
                 EMU-NEW HAVEN
                          M-2                                                             119            242           15%             206
                          M-4                                                             117             54           15%              45
                          M-6                                                             117             48           15%              39
                                    TOTAL                                               118.4            344                           290

                                EMU TOTAL                                               112.9            822                           712

                 TRAILER
                                CAB                                                       112             28           12%              26
                                REG                                                       118            135           12%             119
                                               TOTAL                                    116.9            163                           145

                 CAR TOTAL                                                              113.6            985                           857
                 LOCOMOTIVES
                          GENESIS DM                                                           32         12%             28
                          DE                                                                    4         12%              3
                                                                                               36                         31

04 HB Pk Hr 8-9am -- Metro-North
              EMUs                                                            109.1
              Trailers                                                        116.9
                           Subtotal                                           110.9
New Haven Line
              EMUs                                                            118.4
              Trailers                                                        116.9
                           Subtotal                                           118.3
              Total                                                           113.9

1. Estimate Port Washington Branch Passengers
This section estimates LIRR Pt. Washington Branch passengers, applying '04 Hub Bound LIRR peak hour passengers/car to cars schedule
Pt Washington Branch. This makes it possible to assign subway riders shifting to rail in Section 1 on a different basis for the Pt. Washington
and the LIRR's Main Line.

                                                      Inbound Peak Hour - 8-9 am

                                                                              Trains        Cars      Pssngrs    Cars/Train
Pt Wash Branch (05/21/07 TT except Pssngrs - estd w #/car)                         6          64        4,589         10.7
MainLine (NYP 2004 HbBnd net of PW)                                               30         300       21,511         10.0
NY Penn Station 2004 HubBound                                                     36         364       26,100         10.1
Pt Wash % of NYP                                                               17%          18%          18%

              Port Washington Trains - 09/10/07-11/11/07 Public Timetable & GO #401/Timetable #4, 05/21/07
    Train #       NYP Time     # Cars       1st Stn    1st Zn Stn    Last Zn Stn  Start Time Flushing? Woodside?
     301           07:46 AM      10          GNck        GNck           Wdsd       07:06 AM       7:26     7:34
     303           07:55 AM      10           LNck        LNck           Aub       07:22 AM        N       7:43
     419           07:58 AM      10          PtWsh       PtWsh          GNck       07:19 AM        N       7:46
Trains arriving in NYP 8-9 a.m.
    421           08:11 AM        12        PtWsh         PtWsh          GNck          07:36 AM        N            N
    305           08:26 AM        10         LNck          LNck           Bysd         07:55 AM        N            N
    423           08:35 AM        10      PtWsh-Man        Aub           Wdsd          08:05 AM       8:12         8:22
    307           08:38 AM        10        GNck          GNck            Bysd         08:04 AM        N           8:26
    425           08:44 AM        12        PtWsh         PtWsh          GNck          08:08 AM        N            N
    309           08:59 AM        10        GNck           Bysd          Flshng        08:24 AM       8:41          N
   Pk Hr Total   Cars/Stops       64                                                                    2            2
    427           09:02 AM         8         PtWsh        PtWsh          Dglstn        08:18 AM        N            N
    311           09:14 AM        10         GNck         GNck           Wdsd          08:38 AM       8:55         9:03
 n is obtained by the study team.

y the MTA New York City Transit
 me of the peak-hour subway ridership
g price parity between intra-NYC
 is established, subway riders who
apacity for the added riders.

Express subway lines have
 ricing and operational adjustments
creased commuter rail ridership due


 rs traveling on the Main Line, allowing

eet available for use after the a.m. fleet


le fleet capacity in the peak hour.
ted on existing service on LIRR and


 LIRR and Metro-North.
ubway lines by portal into the CBD.

ub Bound Travel Report & current rail operations

 into the CBD, based on an


 h LIRR & Metro-North. This available existing capacity,
absorb demand greater than full capacity on any subway line.

e LIRR pk hr capacity to subwy lines/portals
                     N/W/R            #4/#5           #6        #2/#3           #1          A/D             B/C   Ck Sum
 capacity to subway lines
                        15%
                         213                                                                                       1,417
 capacity to subway lines
                        10%
                         239                                                                                       2,388

                        451                                                                                        3,805

                        431                                                                                        3,700

                        883                                                                                        7,505

                                    These %'s assign available Metro-North pk hr capacity to subway lines
                                    70.0%          2.0%        15.0%         2.0%        10.0%          1.0%
                                     3,302            94         708            94         472             47      4,717

                        883           3,302           94          708           94          472             47    12,222
                     1,417
                     2,388
                     3,805
                     3,700
                     7,505




                     4,717




Travel Report
service -- on LIRR and MetroNorth
 ering during that 60-minute period.
 culation is then compared to reported


 Capacity Analysis (8-9 a.m.)
                             Available    Standee    Available   Standees    % Cars w
              Cap. Utiliz.      Seats     Capacity   Capacity     per Car*   Standees

                    66.5%         2,312       640       2,952          20        50%
                    89.3%         3,473      1500       4,973          20        25%
                    85.4%         5,784     2,140       7,924




                    72.0%        6,933      1,472       8,405          20        33%
                    70.9%        5,332        775       6,107          20        25%
                    71.5%       12,266      2,247      14,512

                                (3,466)
                                 1,866         543      2,409          20        50%
                                 8,800      2,014     10,814
                                                         35%

ne's capacity can be used for intra NYC
 k State.

YMTC Hub Bound Travel Report
   7-8 am                                            8-9 am                                      9-10 am
                 Psgrs                      Trains        Cars      Psgrs               Trains       Cars   Psgrs


                                               6          64        4,589
                                               30         300      29,131
                    26,100                     36         364      33,720                  19        172    12,970
                       147                      2          14         290                   2         14       278
                      26,247                           38          378     34,010                     21         186       13,248



                       4,109                           14           97      7,410                      6          38        2,433
                       6,847                           16          126     10,382                     10          70        5,376
                      10,956                           30          223     17,792                     16         108        7,809
                       7,875                           20          155     13,002                     10          66        5,344
                      18,831                           50          378     30,794                     26         174       13,153
                         270                            1            5        227                      1           5          160
                      19,101                           51          383     31,021                     27         179       13,313

based on Available Capacity quantified in Section 2
cess available peak hour cars and



er from electric third rail or an internal
ailroad’s 4 non-electrified “diesel-
ail trip during which the traveler is
e customary but time-consuming and
 e station.
 edule 99”, a blueprint for increasing
d operational date for the dual-mode


  rives in NYP in the 8-9am peak hour,
 ng most peak-hour diesel-territory
 ins arrive in NYP at earlier and later


move an additional 6 peak-hour trains
s are dual-mode trains from diesel
 de locomotives and passenger cars.

d to NYP is new or just reassigned
xisting electric trains they now transfer
 eat ride into NYP.
                                                            6-10am Peak Period
                                                            Additional Svc to NYP   8-9am Peak Hour -- Additional Service to NYP
                                                             Trains        Cars        Trains      Cars        Seats     Standees*

  in the peak hour) from the inner Pt. Washington
                                                               3           30               2         20      2,156          400
 pairs) to existing peak period trains serving the 6
                                                               0           14               0         14      1,509          280
                                                               3           44               2         34      3,666          680

ne additional diesel territory train, with stops in
be used to serve the existing peak period trains                                            1          7        980          140
                                                               1            7
ing at Jamaica Station into NYP in the peak hour,
al Queens.                                                     1            4               1          4        560           80
at now terminate at Hunters Point Ave. in L.I.C. and
 t of Jamaica serving central Queens.                          2           10               2         10      1,400          200

                                                               4           21               4         21      2,940           420
                                                               7           65               6         55      6,606         1,100
acity. Trains from diesel territory already run into




APACITY ANALYSIS
                 A.M. Reqmt       Net Avail               IF M-7 OOS Ratio* is set = 10% 10%

                                                          NET AVAIL       GAIN



                         854            28                         44            16
                                    3,019                      4,744
                                                                                                 A.M. REQUIREMENT (Estimated Distribution)
                                                                                                    NYP        LIC       MNTK
                                                                                                        5       10            3
                          17              3                         3                                   0        9            3
                          94              4                         4                                  29       33           12
                         111              7                         7                                  29       42           15

                        965              35                        51            16


                          15              3 **                      3                                 10           3
                          14              6                         6                                              8            3
                          29              9                         9                                 10          11            3
                                                                                         Seats
                         356                                                            38,384
                           8                                                             1,120
                         364                                                            39,504

e to reduce spare ratio from a conservative 12% to 10%.
vel into Penn Station.

                 A.M. Reqmt       Net Avail

                                                          NET AVAIL       GAIN



                         415             7                          7             0
                                      764                        764




                         287              3

                         702             10


                          24              2

                         142              3

                         844             13
                        26            2
                         3            0
                        29            2

                                           Seats
                      173                 18,879
                       50                  5,846
                      223                 24,725

                      141                 16,697
                       14                  1,637
                      155                 18,334
                      378                 43,060


assengers/car to cars scheduled on the
 nt basis for the Pt. Washington Branch




               Psngrs/Car
                     71.7
                     71.7
                     71.7
Sum Diff


  -1,534


  -2,585

  -4,119

  -4,006

  7,505



      0

      0
                    Subway Lines Impacted
   Total                                               Chk Sum
Capacity      #7          E&F            J/Z   N/W/R    Total

             70%          15%            0%     15%    100.0%
  2,556    1,789          383        -          383
             10%          75%            5%     10%    100.0%
  1,789      179        1,342            89     179
  4,346    1,968        1,726            89     562

            10%           75%            5%     10%    100.0%
  1,120      112           840            56     112

            10%           75%            5%     10%    100.0%
   640        64           480            32      64
            10%           75%            5%     10%    100.0%
  1,600     160         1,200            80     160

  3,360       336        2520         168        336
  7,706    2,304        4,245        257        898
(Estimated Distribution)
                  SCOOTS
                          5
                          5
                         20
                         25




                         2
                         3
                         5
Subway Costs             1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet is a work in progress. Some numbers are preliminary and will change as additional information is
obtained by the study team.

This worksheet calculates capital and operating costs to handle the ridership swell and also reduce the Subway
Crowding Index (passenger capacity rate) to a more humane level than NYC Transit's 1.0 criterion.

                                                                                      Subway Crowding Index:            350%

                                                                                              Millions              To vary this
Capital Cost                                                                                     $505               parameter, change
Derived in Section 2 below.                                                                                         corresponding cell in
Annual fixed charge rate (factor converting capital into annualized costs)                          8%              Summary worksheet.
Derived at right. Interest rate was approximated from randomly chosen MTA offering
statement (2002 Series F Refunding Bonds, $446 Million,
http://www.mta.info/mta/investor/pdf/transp2002f-os.pdf).
Annualized Capital Cost                                                                            $40
Annual Operation & Maintenance Cost                                                                $49
Derived below.
Total Annual Costs                                                                                 $89
                                                                                                                           For
1. Calculate additional subway cars required                                                                          Subway
This section derives the capital and O&M costs of the increased train service identified in Transit                  Crowding
Capacity. As train and car requirements change, the cost to acquire the additional fleet changes, as do               Index of
operating and maintenance costs. The change in fleet size will be accommodated in physical facilities,                   350%
such as shops and crew facilities, and by an increased tempo of operations.

Additional Peak Hour Subway Trains Required (from Transit Capacity)                                                         22
Additional Peak Hour Subway Cars Required (from Transit Capacity)
"A" Division Cars (numbered subway lines )                                                                                130
"B" Division Cars (lettered subway lines )                                                                                 81
Total                                                                                                                     211
Additional Shoulder Trains and Cars Required for each Peak Hour Train and Car                                              0.5
These trains are required to handle additional riders in shoulder hours next to peak hour. Study team assumption.

Total Additional Subway Trains Required                                                                                     33
Additional Subway Cars Required For Weekday Operations
"A" Division Cars                                                                                                         200
"B" Division Cars                                                                                                         120
Total Additional Subway Cars Required For Weekday Operations                                                              320
Subway Car Spare Ratio (% of car fleet reserved for scheduled & unschduled maintenance). Study team.                     15%
Additional Subway Cars Required for the Car Fleet (including spares)
"A" Division Cars                                                                                                         235
"B" Division Cars                                                                                                         141
Total Additional Subway Cars Required for the Car Fleet                                                                   380

2. Calculate capital costs of additional car fleet
"A" Division Cars
Source: 08/21/07 NYMTC NYC TCC Program Report (pdf, p. 90) the official transportation capital planning document for NYC.
Current New York City Transit (NYCT) plans call for purchasing 47 subway cars for the #7 line in 2008 at a cost of
$1.6 M each. These are the only A Divsion cars to be purchased over the next 5 years, according to NYMTC.
Therefore, the first 47 additional "A" Division cars do not have to be purchased, but instead can utilize the cars
released by the new cars. Overhaul costs of $0.5 M/car are included in the capital cost analysis. Additional "A"
Division Cars in excess of 47 would have to be purchased. The first 47 cars would be available in 2008, with
additional (new) cars delivered beginning no earlier than late 2009, unless an extension on the current order is
negotiated. Unit cost of current purchase price -- $1.6 M -- increased by 10% to $1.75 M.
Additional "A" Division Cars Required                                                                                     235
Number to be provided from existing cars released by cars-on-order                                                         47
Purchased new                                                                                                             188
Total "A" Division                                                                                                        235
"B" Division Cars
Source: 08/21/07 NYMTC NYC TCC Program Report (pdf, pp. 90 & 91)
Current NYCT contracts will bring over 1,000 new "B" Division cars to NYC over the next 5 years at costs beginning
at $2.1M and trending down to as low as $1.7 M each. Therefore, all additional "B" Division cars required do not
have to be purchased, but instead can utilize the cars released by the new cars. Overhaul costs of $0.5 M/car are
included in the capital cost analysis. Effective delivery date of an expanded fleet is now, as new cars are delivered
and existing cars are retained.
Additional "B" Division Cars Required
Number to be provided from existing cars released by cars-on-order                                                        141
Total Additional "A" Division & "B" Division Subway Cars                                                                  376

3. Calculate operations and maintenance costs of additional subway cars required for weekday operations
Operating and maintenance costs are driven by the "Total Additional Subway Cars Required For Weekday
Operations" calculated at the top of this worksheet. All costs have been converted to a cost per additional weekday
subway car, for ease of analysis.

Total Additional Subway Cars Required For Weekday Operations                                                              320
Annual Costs
Operations Labor (subway operators & conductors)
Car Maintenance (car maintainers, cleaners, etc.)
Traction and Propulsion Power (electricity)
Other costs (Insurance, Claims, Maintenance & Other Operating Contracts and Materials & Supplies)

Full-Time Positions @               $94,300
Operations Labor (subway operators & conductors)
Car Maintenance (car maintainers, cleaners, etc.)

Detailed derivation of these #'s is completed and will be added

Commuter Rail Costs
To come.

For now, we rough-estimate total annual costs of expanding public transit to accommodate the swell
and meet the target Subway Crowding Index, by multiplying the annualized subway system costs
above, by this factor:                                                                                                     2.0

Total Annual Costs for the Expanded Mass Transit System                                                                  $178

Implied Capital Costs of Transit Improvements included in above figure:                                                 $1,010
                        Capital Recovery Factor
                        Years                 25
                        Interest          4.50%
To vary this            CRF               6.74%
parameter, change       Insure/admin      1.00%
corresponding cell in   Total             7.74%
Summary worksheet.      Rounded              8%
 Capital      Capital
Cost/Car       Cost
(millions)   (millions)

    $0.50          $24
    $1.75         $411
                  $435




    $0.50          $71
                  $505

              Cost at
               2007
  2007        Prices
 Cost/Car    (millions)




 $44,600         $14.3
 $68,400         $21.9
 $12,900          $4.1
 $26,300          $8.4
                 $48.7
Positions /Car
      0.47        151
      0.73        232
                  383




million

million
Fare Collection            1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the savings in administrative and personnel costs from eliminating fares on NYC
Transit buses and, perhaps, subways, as part of the plan to reduce/eliminate transit fares.

Note that the indirect, "second-best" estimating methods used here were necessitated by New York City
Transit's failure to respond to repeated data requests.

All figures are annual.

A. Subway Fare Collection Costs -- 3 Ways to Estimate

Method 1: Prorating/Updating from a 1982 Estimate

Subway fare collection costs as % of collected revenue (1982)                                                   19%
Source: PCAC (Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee to the MTA) report, “Four Methods of Increasing Productivity in
the MTA: Pass-Reader Fare Collection System, One-Person Train Operation, Signal Modernization, Articulated Bus,”
prepared by Victor M. Lopez-Balboa, Oct. 1982, p. 3.

Current (2007) subway farebox revenues                                                                $2,022,500,000
MTA 2007 Budget, section entitled NYC Transit, 2008 Final Proposed Budget, November Financial Plan 2008-2011.
Available at http://mta.info/mta/budget/nov2007/part6.pdf.

Current (2007) subway fare collection costs if 1982 relationship pertains                              $384,000,000

Method 2: "Bottoms-Up" Calculation, based on 1985 token booth staffing levels and costs

Personnel to staff NYC Transit token booths in 1985                                                            3,834
Number of stations in 1985                                                                                       463
Dec. 11. 1985 draft report by Ned Towle, Director, NYCTA Dept. of Planning and Budget. According to that report, in
1985 the transit system operated 463 stations with 516 24-hour change booths and an additional 237 part-time booths
(p. 19), staffed by 3,834 hourly-rated employees (p.37).

Number of stations in 2007                                                                                       468
MTA 2007 Budget, section entitled NYC Transit (see full cite above for Farebox Revenues), p. V-231.

Personnel to staff NYC Transit token booths currently, if 1985 relationships pertain                           3,875

NYC Transit total personnel cost, 2007                                                                $4,829,600,000
MTA 2007 Budget, section entitled NYC Transit (see full cite above), p. V-245, table, "Non-Reimbusable and
Reimbursable," column, "2007 November Forecast."

NYC Transit, number of personnel (positions), 2007                                                            49,069
MTA 2007 Budget, section entitled NYC Transit (see full cite above), p. V-231; also p. V-321, column, "2007 November
Forecast."

Total labor cost per position, 2007                                                                          $98,400

Implied cost of personnel to staff NYC Transit token booths in 2007                                    $381,000,000

Method 3: More Realistic Estimates of Number of Station Agents and Their Salaries

Results from Methods 1 & 2 above agree to within 1%. However, both methods implicitly assume same
level of staffing (per station) in 2007 as in 1980s. Method 2 also assumes that token-booth clerk salaries
are average for entire NYCT. Here, we reconsider both assumptions.

Assumed reduction in token booth positions from 1985 basis                                                      15%
Komanoff assumption, intended to reflect NYCT's concerted cost-cutting efforts. Note Gothamist's recent (12-26-07)
mention of the "2005 … closing [of] 164 token booths." http://gothamist.com/2007/12/26/mta_spends_25_m.php.

Now attempt to derive annual fully-loaded cost for token booth clerks

Published 2004 per-hour salaries for station agents
 Starting                                                                                                        $15.46
 After 3 years                                                                                                   $21.64
City of New York, Dept. of Citywide Admin Services, Notice of Examination, No. 3025, Station Agent, Jan. 2004,
available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcas/downloads/pdf/noes/stationagent.pdf.

Inflation factor to 2007                                                                                           1.125
CPI ratio, July 2007 vs. Jan. 2004.

2007-adjusted per-hour salary (75% senior rate, 25% starting rate)                                               $22.60

Labor Cost breakout (all costs are from MTA 2007 Budget table sourced above, under total personnel cost, 2007)
 Total                                                                                          $4,829,600,000
 Payroll                                                                                        $2,979,300,000
 Overtime                                                                                         $328,600,000
 Total Salary and Wages                                                                         $3,307,900,000
  Total Salary and Wages, ratio to Payroll (i.e., Overtime adder)                                             1.11
 Total Fringe Benefits (Health & Welfare, Pensions, Other)                                      $1,521,700,000
 Labor Total, ratio to Payroll (i.e., Overtime + Fringe adder)                                                1.62
 Labor Total, ratio to Payroll + Overtime (i.e., Fringe adder)                                                1.46

2007-adjusted, all-in per-hour salary                                                                            $36.64
Calculated as 2007-adjusted per-hour salary, times ratio of Labor Total to Payroll

Hours worked (Komanoff assumptions: 50 weeks, 40 hrs/wk)                                                          2,000

2007-adjusted, all-in per-hour salary (After 3 Years only)                                                     $73,000

This figure matches a "data point" in New York magazine, Sept. 18, 2005:
Annual Salary, station agent Annette Sutton-Epps                                                               $46,363
"Who Makes How Much," http://nymag.com/guides/salary/14497/index5.html.
Inflation adjustment, 2005 to 2007 (using CPI)                                                                    1.066
Salary, adjusted to 2007                                                                                       $49,424
Adjustment for Fringe Benefits (ratio of Labor Total to Total Salary and Wages, above)                             1.46
All-in Salary, adjusted to 2007                                                                                $72,000

Now calculate token booth staffing points @ reduced salary & reduced number of personnel

Personnel to staff NYC Transit token booths currently, incorporating above reduxn                               3,294
Est'd annual all-in personnel cost (average of two methods above)                                             $72,500
Product of these two figures                                                                             $238,821,765
Above, rounded                                                                                           $239,000,000

4. Savings from Eliminating Subway Fare

% of current fare collection cost that could be retained as savings, if fare eliminated                             50%
Komanoff assumption, in lieu of input from NYC Transit, intended to balance ability to eliminate many positions with real-
world challenges of retraining and redeploying current station agents.

Savings from Eliminating Subway Fare                                                                     $120,000,000
Formula uses logic statement that sets result to zero unless fare is eliminated.
B. Maintenance of Subway & Bus Fare Collection Machinery

1. Subway Machinery Annual Maintenance                                                                 $20,000,000
Komanoff assumption. Primarily for vending machines, gates, etc. Turnstiles are assumed to be kept, for data purposes.
Maintenance Savings from Eliminating Subway Fare                                                       $20,000,000

2. Bus Machinery Annual Maintenance (derived directly below)                                           $29,000,000
Number of NYC Transit buses                                                                                  4,518
2006 figure, from http://www.mta.info/nyct/facts/ffbus.htm.
Number of MTA Bus Co. buses                                                                                    1,250
http://mta.info/mta/budget/nov2007/part7.pdf.
Total number of buses whose fare-collection machinery must be maintained by MTA                              5,768
Assumed annual maintenance cost per bus                                                                     $5,000
Maintenance Savings from Eliminating Bus Fare                                                          $29,000,000

C. MTA Administrative Costs Associated with Fare Collection                                              $5,000,000
Komanoff assumption.
Administrative Savings from Eliminating Transit Fare                                                     $5,000,000
Formula uses logic statement that sets result to zero unless fare is eliminated.

D. Total Savings from Eliminating Bus and/or Subway Fares                                           $174,000,000
Curbside Parking Revenue                                  1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the revenue gain from expanding and increasing curbside parking charges in and north of the CBD.

The "CBD" column blocks apply to the targeted charging zone: Manhattan south of 60th Street.

The "60th - 96th Street" column blocks estimate the revenue potential from expanding and increasing curbside parking charges north of the

There are at least four rationales for considering higher parking fees for Manhattan from 60th to 96th Street: a) to reduce border effects of
drivers seeking to evade cordon fees by parking north of the CBD; b) to provide an equitable way for Manhattan auto owners to contribute to
congestion pricing without a costly intra-zonal charging system; c) to reduce "cruising" -- vehicle circulation searching for parking spaces --
since fees would be set at levels that achieve one vacant space on each side of each block; and d) to return a portion of the revenues to
communities for streetscape improvements for pedestrians and cyclists and for enhancement open spaces. Actual meter rates will be set to
achieve an overall 15% vacancy rate.

                                                                                                                Manhattan Central Business District (CBD

                                                                                                            Current Regime,
Part "A"                                                                                                            all hours

Curbside parking spaces                                                                                               28,737
metered                                                                                                                6,904
non-metered                                                                                                           21,833

Source: For CBD: NYC Dept. of City Planning, An Evaluation and Update of Off-Street Parking
Regulations in Community Districts 1-8 in Manhattan , July 2002. Cited in Donald Shoup, The High
Cost of Free Parking , p. 514, American Planning Association, 2005. Shoup states (p. 552) that survey
area includes all Manhattan from 59th St. to Battery, between Hudson and East Rivers. Shoup
reported first two rows above; third is difference. For 60th-96th calculations, see Part "B" below.

Hourly Parking Rate                                                                                                   $2.63
For CBD: We propose $8.00/hr rate for 11 peak hours, half that for 3 shoulder hours. "Current" figure
assumes 1/2 of metered spaces are charged flat $2/hr while other 1/2 employ muni-meters charging
$2 first hr, $3 second hr, $4 remaining hrs, with avg stay of 4 hrs (per Shoup, op. cit., above, p. 300.)
Note: "Alternative Approaches to Traffic Congestion Mitigation in the Manhattan Central Business
District" (Coalition to Keep NYC Congestion Tax Free, Oct. 2007) cites $1.73 for average rate/hr
charged for CBD curbside parking, from unspecified recent study. For 60th-96th: We propose lower
rates, reflecting large residential component. "Current" figure is based on observations by Kheel study
team.

Hours per day rate is charged                                                                                            10
Currently charged 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. We propose 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Days per week that the rate is charged                                                                                    6
We propose charging on Sunday, notwithstanding the rescinding several years ago of metered
parking charges on Sunday in response to religious lobbyists. The principle of charging for curbside
space is important and should not be whittled down to benefit a particular group.
Revenue factor (percentage of charged hours for which space is actually paid)                                           85%
Current % is Komanoff placeholder estimate. We conservatively reduce that for our plan, conceding
that the reduction in traffic into the CBD will likely reduce demand for curbside parking.
Percentage of currently metered spaces for which metering will be retained                                             100%
Percentage of non-metered spaces for which metering will be implemented                                                  0%
Current percentage allows for possibility that CBD curbside parking is extended without Kheel Plan.
We limit new parking spaces to 75% of currently non-metered spaces to ensure space for cycle lanes,
bus rapid transit, pedestrian infrastructure, etc., and also for general conservatism.
Total metered curbside parking spaces in Manhattan CBD                                                                 6,900
Daily Revenue (rounded)                                                                                     $       154,250
Annual Revenue (rounded)                                                                                    $    48,000,000
Assumes 365 days.
Total Annual Revenue (gross)                                                                          $    48,000,000

Some additional money will presumably be expended on increased parking enforcement and collection. Below, we rough-estimate current
parking enforcement and collection costs as a percentage of parking revenues, citywide.

Parking Revenue Collection Costs, 2007 (est.)                                                         $     6,800,000
Parking Enforcement Costs, 2007 (est.)                                                                $    11,600,000
Combined Collection and Enforcement, 2007 (est.)                                                      $    18,400,000
Estimated by Community Consulting Services from NYC Adopted Budget FY 2008,
http://www.nyc.gov/html/omb/pdf/fp6_07.pdf. Budget lines include Parking Violations Bureau, City Meter Parking Service,
and OTPS.

Citywide Parking Revenue, 2007 (same NYC Budget source as above).                                     $ 114,800,000
Parking Collection and Enforcement Costs as a percentage of Revenues, 2007                                      16%
Analogous percentage, estimated for incremental CBD parking
Rounded down from current citywide percentage, on assumption that relationship is sublinear due to economies from high
CBD parking rates.
                                                                                                          Manhattan Central Business District (CBD

                                                                                                           Current

Estimated CBD Parking Collection/Enforcement Costs                                                    $     7,700,000

Net Annual CBD Parking Revenues                                                                       $    40,300,000

% of gross parking revenue set aside for community benefit (walk / bike / open space enhancements)
Parking Revenues set aside for community benefit (walk / bike / open space enhancements)

Net Increase for Transit

Net Increase for Communities

Net Increase for Transit + Communities




Part "B"

Estimation of parking spaces in Manhattan from 60th to 96th Streets, river to river

East-West miles per street, West Side (incl. intersections)
Number of blocks between 60th and 96th Streets (excluding 96th St.)
Block faces
% linear distance consumed by intersections
Total miles of curb space

East-West miles per street, East Side (incl. intersections)
Number of blocks between 60th and 96th Streets (excluding 96th St.)
Block faces
% linear distance consumed by intersections
Total miles of curb space

Total linear miles of East-West Curb Space
Total linear feet of East-West Curb Space

Space required for parking (feet)
Number of potential East-West Parking Spaces
Adjustment for bus stop areas
# parking spaces lost at each avenue (for 60th, 65th, 72nd, 79th, 86th Streets)
# Avenues
Two way operation
Number of cross town streets requiring this adjustment
Number of parking spaces removed
Net remaining cross town parking spaces

Gross # parking spaces that are already metered (assume 60th, 65th, 72nd, 79th, 86th Streets)
Less number of spaces removed by bus stops
Number of East-West spaces that are presently metered
Number of East-West spaces that are presently unmetered

North-South linear miles of roads (incl. intersections) (miles)
Number of blocks (avenues), river to river excluding Central Park
Block faces
% linear distance consumed by intersections
Total linear miles of North-South curb space
Total linear feet of North-South curb space
Number of potential East-West Parking Spaces
Adjustment for bus stop areas
Assume 4 parking spaces at every 3rd block along York, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Lex., Madison, 5th, Broadway,
Columbus, Amsterdam (spaces)
Number of intersecting blocks where buses stop (one-third of 36)
Two way operation
Number of North-South Avenues with bus service
Number of parking spaces removed by bus stops
Net remaining cross town parking spaces
Number of Avenues where metering does not occur
Number of North-South spaces that are unmetered
Number of North-South spaces that are metered

Curbside parking spaces (north-south, east-west, 60th to 96th Streets, river-to-river)
metered
non-metered
ges in and north of the CBD.




sing curbside parking charges north of the CBD

6th Street: a) to reduce border effects of
 for Manhattan auto owners to contribute to
 irculation searching for parking spaces --
d) to return a portion of the revenues to
 n spaces. Actual meter rates will be set to


anhattan Central Business District (CBD)                      Manhattan, 60th - 96th Streets

                        Proposed Regime             Current Regime,               Proposed Regime
                   7 a.m. - 6 p.m. 6-7 am, 6-8 pm          all hours       7 a.m. - 6 p.m.  6-7 am, 6-8 pm      CBD + 60th-96th

                             28,737                          30,077                   30,077                        58,814
                              6,904                           7,185                    7,185                        14,089
                             21,833                          22,892                   22,892                        44,725




               $           8.00   $        4.00              $1.50     $          4.00    $          1.00




                             11                3                10                  11                  3

                              7                7                 6                    7                 7



                           75%              75%                85%                 75%               75%


                          100%             100%               100%                100%              100%     METERED SPACES
                           75%              75%                 0%                 75%               75%        CBD + 60th-96th
                                                                                                                  Proposed
                                                                                                                    47,700
                                                                                                                  At Present
                       23,300       23,300                    7,200            24,400               24,400          14,100
               $ 1,537,800 $      209,700           $       91,800     $     805,200 $             54,900          Increase
               $ 561,000,000 $ 77,000,000           $   29,000,000     $ 294,000,000 $         20,000,000           33,600
                                 $ 638,000,000   $   29,000,000                   $   314,000,000 U N M E T E R E D S P A C E S
                                                                                                         CBD + 60th-96th
ection. Below, we rough-estimate current                                                                    Proposed

                                                                                                           At Present

                                                                                                            Increase




                                                           16%
                                           10%                                               10%


anhattan Central Business District (CBD)                  Manhattan, 60th - 96th Streets                 CBD + 60th-96th

                         Proposed                    Current                 Proposed                       Proposed

                       $63,800,000               $    4,600,000             $31,400,000                           $95,200,000

                       $574,200,000              $   24,400,000            $282,600,000                         $856,800,000

                            0%                                                  33%
                            $0                                              $94,200,000                           $94,200,000

                       $534,000,000                                        $164,000,000                         $698,000,000

                            $0                                              $94,200,000                           $94,200,000

                       $534,000,000                                        $258,200,000                         $792,200,000




                          0.6
                           36
                            2
                         20%
                         34.6

                          0.9
                           36
                            2
                         20%
                         51.8

                        86.4
                     456,192

                           20
                       22,810
      4
     11
      2
      5
    440
 22,370

  3,168
    440
  2,728
 19,642

     1.9
   14.4
       2
   40%
   32.8
173,353
  8,668


       4
      12
       2
      10
    960
  7,708
     5.4
  3,250
  4,457

 30,077
  7,185
 22,892
D SPACES
By Hour                        1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the revenue consequences of varying the cordon toll by time of day.

Still to come: linking time of day tolling to traffic impacts.

1. Establish hourly volumes and define three rate periods on the basis of relative volumes.
We will use hourly volumes of all crossings into Manhattan (combined) as our data base.

Our criteria
Peak            If hourly volume exceeds        100% of mean hour
Shoulder        If hourly volume exceeds         80% of mean hour
Graveyard                                         all other hours

Total Manhattan Crossings, 2005 Average Hourly Traffic Volumes, To and From Manhattan, (All Facilities)
2005 Manhattan River Crossings, NYC DOT, Feb. 2007, http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/manrivercross05.pdf, p. 23.

                                Hourly Vol.,
 1-hr period,         Hourly     % of Mean            Graveyard      Shoulder        Peak
    starting:        Volume           Hour Rate Class  Volumes       Volumes      Volumes

   12:00 AM          16,211           41%   Graveyard      16,211            0          0
    1:00 AM          10,867           28%   Graveyard      10,867            0          0
    2:00 AM           8,643           22%   Graveyard       8,643            0          0
    3:00 AM           9,059           23%   Graveyard       9,059            0          0
    4:00 AM          13,821           35%   Graveyard      13,821            0          0
    5:00 AM          31,718           81%    Shoulder           0       31,718          0
    6:00 AM          59,336          151%       Peak            0            0     59,336
    7:00 AM          67,767          172%       Peak            0            0     67,767
    8:00 AM          63,871          162%       Peak            0            0     63,871
    9:00 AM          56,317          143%       Peak            0            0     56,317
   10:00 AM          47,982          122%       Peak            0            0     47,982
   11:00 AM          44,207          112%       Peak            0            0     44,207
   12:00 PM          42,435          108%       Peak            0            0     42,435
    1:00 PM          42,749          109%       Peak            0            0     42,749
    2:00 PM          46,756          119%       Peak            0            0     46,756
    3:00 PM          50,218          128%       Peak            0            0     50,218
    4:00 PM          51,743          132%       Peak            0            0     51,743
    5:00 PM          53,237          135%       Peak            0            0     53,237
    6:00 PM          50,665          129%       Peak            0            0     50,665
    7:00 PM          45,111          115%       Peak            0            0     45,111
    8:00 PM          37,854           96%    Shoulder           0       37,854          0
    9:00 PM          34,538           88%    Shoulder           0       34,538          0
   10:00 PM          32,134           82%    Shoulder           0       32,134          0
   11:00 PM          26,142           67%   Graveyard      26,142            0          0

      24 hrs        943,381                                84,743      136,244    722,394
    avg hour         39,308

Percentage of all trips, at present                            9%         14%         77%

2. Estimates of Time Shifts from Implementing Variable Tolls
Note: Figures in this section are merely educated guesses. Considerable analysis would be needed (and
should be done) to develop a solid methodology to estimate the likely changes.

Percent of each category moving to Graveyard                              10%          5%
Percent of each category moving to Shoulder                                            5%
Rough estimates, as noted above. Note that these estimates are "hard-wired," i.e., they do not vary among different tolling scenarios.

Changes from first of the 2 shifts shown above                49,744       -13,624      -36,120
Changes from second of the 2 shifts shown above                             36,120      -36,120
Combined changes from both shifts                             49,744        22,495      -72,239

Trips after accounting for time shifts                      134,487      158,739      650,155
Percentage of all trips, from variable pricing                  14%          17%          69%

3. Variable Toll Scenarios and their Impacts on Revenues Previously Estimated for a Flat (24/7) Cordon Toll

Variable Toll Scenario #1 (relative tolls) -- 1/3, 2/3, 3/3                                                           Lost
                                                                                                                 Revenue,
Toll Rate as % of Peak Rate                                  33%       66.7%        100%                          Millions
Revenue if no time switching (% of flat toll revenue)         3%         10%         77%         89%                 $400
Revenue w/ time switching (% of flat toll revenue)            5%         11%         69%         85%                 $550
                                                                Cross-Products                   Sum
                              This scenario is the one selected by inputting "Yes" to the query, "Are
                              Cordon Fees Varied by Time of Day?," in Summary worksheet.

Variable Toll Scenario #2 (relative tolls) -- Free off-peak, Shoulder priced at $10 (if Peak = $16)                   Lost
                                                                                                                 Revenue,
Toll Rate as % of Peak Rate                                    0%       62.5%        100%                         Millions
Revenue if no time switching (% of flat toll revenue)          0%           9%        77%         86%                $530
Revenue w/ time switching (% of flat toll revenue)             0%         11%         69%         79%                $750
                                                                 Cross-Products                  Sum
                              This scenario is not linked to any other cells or worksheets, and is
                              shown for illustrative purposes only.

Note: These estimates of lost revenue are arguably conservative (i.e., they err on the high side) because
they do not allow for the possibility that some trips tolled off the road by the flat 24/7 cordon fee would
"survive" a variable tolling scheme. The error is probably considerable, insofar as 23% of trips at present do
not occur during the peak (rising to 31% under the variable tolling assumptions here).
VMT (vehicle miles traveled)                     1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates reductions in VMT from the cordon-fee and free-transit options.

Note: Several possible other sources of VMT reductions aren't counted here, such as (i) reduced intra-CBD driving due to free transit, and (i
number of households owning cars (due to cordon entry fee and, especially, availability of free transit), which then leads to a drop in casual
easy car availability.

"Motor vehicle trips" refer to vehicles; "transit trips" and "trips in motor vehicles" refer to persons.

1. Macro VMT estimates

VMT, 2005 (million miles)

                                                   Manhattan                            NYC
 Interstates                                          324.44                     4,581.99
 Expwys                                               919.94                     4,451.23
 Principal Arterials                                1,025.91                     5,650.37
 Minor Arterials                                      839.14                     4,137.03
 Major Collectors                                     645.93                     1,934.05
 Local                                                354.18                     3,326.86
Total                                               4,109.54                    24,081.54
Subtotal, w/o Interstates or Expwys                 2,865.16                    Not relevant

Source: KEA file, Emissions Master File _ 16 Nov 2005.xls, from Synapse 2004 project. Drawn from NYS DEC database.

2. CBD VMT

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) CBD BELOW 60TH ST, 2005 BUILD
VMTS FROM NYBPM RUN
                   AM           MD         PM              NT       TOTAL
             692,372      1,083,228   875,679        686,751     3,338,030

Above table is a reproduction of a (tiny) Excel spreadsheet, "NY CBD BELOW 60 ST summary," provided by
NYMTC to C. Komanoff, 1 Nov 2007. The four columns are different time intervals, and the Total cell
represents average CBD VMT on a typical weekday. Based on detailed companion spreadsheets from
NYMTC, the Total figure would decline by approximately 15% if highways (e.g., FDR Drive, bridge and
tunnel ramps, entrances and exits) were deducted.

Annual VMT, millions                                                  1,102 million miles

3. VMT destroyed by policy options (all figures are daily for weekdays)

                                                                                    Cordon Fee                                        Free Tr
                                                                        Work      Non-work         Taxi          All      Work
                                                                        Trips         Trips       Trips       Trips       Trips

A. Per-weekday VMT destroyed by eliminating trips crossing into cordon

1. VMT destroyed in CBD
M.V. trips into CBD eliminated (net, weekday)                        69,900         91,200        (300)    160,800      81,300
Distance per eliminated trip (miles)                                      12             12         2.8                      10
Share of Trip Distance occurring w/i CBD                                15%            15%         60%                     15%
CBD miles destroyed per m.v. trip eliminated                             1.8            1.8         2.4                     1.5
Taxi miles reflect cruising.
Number of one-way trips per trip into CBD                                 2              2            1                       2
CBD m.v. miles destroyed per weekday                               251,600        328,300         (700)    579,200     243,900
Percentage of total weekday CBD VMT destroyed
 % of CBD VMT destroyed                                                                                              17.4%

2. VMT destroyed outside CBD
M.V. trips into CBD eliminated (net, weekday)                            69,900         91,200          (300)     160,800           81,300
Distance per eliminated trip (miles)                                          12             12           2.8                            10
Share of Trip Distance outside the CBD                                      85%            85%           40%                           85%
Non-CBD miles destroyed per trip                                            10.2           10.2           1.6                           8.5
Taxi miles reflect cruising.
Number of one-way trips per trip into CBD                                        2              2            1                              2
Non-CBD miles destroyed per day                                        1,426,000      1,860,500          (480)   3,286,020        1,382,100

3. All VMT destroyed (by eliminating cordon entries)                   1,677,600      2,188,800        (1,180)   3,865,220        1,626,000

CBD's percentage of VMT destruction                                          15%            15%          59%           15%              15%

B. Per-weekday VMT destroyed by eliminating trips other than those that cross into cordon
These are entirely due to the citywide free-transit policy

Citywide m.v. trips eliminated due to free transit (net, weekday)                                                                  201,200
Source: Transit worksheet.
Of which the following were one-way trips into the CBD (noted, in order to avoid double-counting)                                   81,300
Above quantities converted into round-trips                                                                                        162,600
Net non-CBD m.v. trips eliminated due to free subways (net, weekday)                                                                38,600
Average trip distance, miles
Adapted from mean of 7.8 miles for average one-way subway commute and 3.6 miles for bus, from Komanoff analysis of Schaller data in "Rolling Carbon" pr
Alternatives, 2007. Non-weighted mean of 5.7 miles is rounded down to reflect non-commute trips.
Weekday VMT destroyed

C. Summary of per-weekday destroyed VMT (by combining cordon entry fee with free transit)
                                                                                                                                Breakdown
VMT destroyed w/i CBD                                                                                                                   13%
VMT destroyed outside CBD                                                                                                               87%
Total VMT destroyed                                                                                                                    100%
Note: "Percentages of base" are taken against arterials + local streets (i.e., excluding limited-access highways) for CBD, but against all VMT for citywide.
Percentage of non-CBD destroyed VMT assumed to be medallion taxicabs                                                     1%
Rough estimate based on: (i) approx citywide taxicab VMT of 800 million; (ii) assumption that 25% of that is outside CBD; (iii) approx citywide VMT of 24 billio
 iving due to free transit, and (ii) reduction in the
then leads to a drop in casual driving associated with




                      Free Transit                                Both Policies (combined)
                 Non-work          Taxi               All      Work    Non-work      Taxi          All
                     Trips        Trips            Trips       Trips       Trips    Trips       Trips




                   34,100       3,000          118,400      137,000    114,200     2,700     253,900
                        10         2.8                         10.9       11.5        2.8
                      15%         60%                           15%        15%       60%
                       1.5         2.4                           1.6        1.7        2.4

                         2           1                             2          2         1
                  102,300       7,200          353,400      449,000    392,500     6,500     848,000
                                                         10.6%                                          25.4%


                      34,100         3,000            118,400       137,000     114,200     2,700    253,900
                           10           2.8                            10.9        11.5        2.8
                         85%           40%                              85%         85%       40%
                          8.5           1.6                              9.3         9.7       1.6

                              2            1                                2           2        1
                      579,700        4,800           1,966,600      2,544,300   2,224,000    4,300   4,773,000

                      682,000       12,000           2,320,000      2,993,300   2,616,500   10,800   5,621,000

                          15%          60%                    15%        15%         15%      60%         15%




                    211,400                           412,600

                     34,100          3,000            118,400
                     68,200          3,000            233,800
                    143,200         (3,000)           178,800
                                                             5
challer data in "Rolling Carbon" project for Transportation

                                                      894,000


                     Weekday                            Annual      % of base
                    848,000                      280,000,000           25.4%
                  5,667,000                    1,870,000,000
                  6,515,000                    2,150,000,000            8.9%
t against all VMT for citywide.

i) approx citywide VMT of 24 billion, above.
Cordon                              1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the capital and annual costs to build, operate and administer the cordon charging system.
It also estimates the effective new lane-miles and the car-free public space "created" by reducing VMT within the CBD.

1. Cordon Capital Costs
All costs are fully loaded, i.e., include design, contracting, community approval, etc.

Cost per Location (rounded; derived in next four rows from NYC data)                                              $526,000
 NYC target cost for designing and installing charging system for its cordon scheme                           $179,000,000
 to come (Doctoroff document)
 Number of locations on which NYC target cost is predicated                                                               340
 to come (Doctoroff document)
Number of Locations for our plan                                                                                         19
 Avenues (FDR, Sutton/York, 2nd Ave, Lex, Park, 5th, CPW, B'way, Columbus, 11th Ave, W Side Hwy)                         11
 Bridges (two each for Manhattan and Queensboro, one each for Brooklyn and Wmsburg)                                       6
 Tunnels (Lincoln, Holland)                                                                                               2
Cost for all Locations                                                                                          $9,990,000
Adder for indirect costs (design, contracting, community approvals)                                                   100%
Total (rounded)                                                                                                $20,000,000
Amortization period, years                                                                                                5
Annualized capital cost                                                                                         $4,000,000

2. Cordon Operating Costs
Average Daily Vehicle Entries to CBD, 24-hours, after cordon fee (excludes medallion taxis)                           428,800
from Traffic and Revenue worksheet)
  Percent using E-Zpass (may be conservatively low)                                                    70%
NYC estimate reported in Daily News, "Mayor says congestion plan will raise $390M for mass transit," Oct. 22, 2007,
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2007/10/22/2007-10-22_mayor_says_congestion_plan_will_raise_39-4.html
 Percent using other payment mechanisms                                                                30%
Charging Costs (per vehicle costs are adapted from Daily News article cited above: "Every time the system reads an E-
ZPass tag on a car or truck, the city expects the cost to be 30 cents - even though E-ZPass transactions cost far less for the
MTA's bridges and tunnels (15 cents) and the New Jersey Turnpike (6 cents). The city expects cameras will be able to
automatically read license plates for just 15 cents each - down from 75 cents each in earlier drafts."
                                                              per vehicle         # per day          $ per day       $ per year
E-ZPass                                                   $0.15        300,160                    $45,024      $14,900,000
Photo                                                     $0.30        128,640                    $38,592      $12,700,000
Subtotal                                                                                                       $27,600,000
Adder for administration/enforcement (Komanoff placeholder assumption)                                 50%     $13,800,000
Total Charging Costs                                                                                           $41,400,000

3. Cordon Total Costs                                                                                          $45,000,000

4. Spatial Implications of Reduced VMT Inside the CBD Cordon

Lane-Miles in the CBD (Manhattan south of 60th Street)

Avenues                                                                                              Source
 North-South miles south of 60th St.                                                     5              CK [BTK implies 6, but Mapquest shows 5]
 Number of lanes @ 60th St. (excludes W Side Hwy, FDR)                                  91             BTK
 Number of avenues @ 60th St. (excludes W Side Hwy, FDR)                                15             BTK
 Implied lanes per avenue @ 60th St.                                                   6.1             BTK
 Adjusted lanes/ave. reflecting narrowing in south                                     5.2              CK [take 15% off BTK figure)
 Implied lane-miles south of 60th St.                                                 387
 Avenue miles south of 60th St. (may be useful for redesign)                            75

Streets
 Number of lane-miles                                                                 165             BTK
 Lanes per street                                                                      3.5            BTK
 Adjusted lanes per street reflecting narrowing in south                             3.15              CK [take 10% off BTK figure)
 Implied lane-miles south of 60th St.                                                 520
 Street miles south of 60th St. (may be useful for redesign)                          165

Total Lane-Miles, Streets and Avenues Combined                                        907
Total Lane-Miles, Streets and Avenues, Rounded                                        900

Reduction in CBD VMT due to Kheel Plan                                              25.4%

% Reduxn in CBD Lane-Miles that could maintain current V/C                          25.4%

Above figure, in Lane-Miles                                                           230

% CBD "new road capacity" being kept from autos+trucks                               50%     policy choice inputted in Summary

% New CBD lane-miles being made avail. to autos + trucks                             50%

New CBD lane-miles being made avail. to autos + trucks                                115
 This figure as a % of current CBD lane-miles                                        13%
 This figure as a % of current CBD avenue lane-miles                                 30%
 This figure as a % of current CBD street lane-miles                                 22%

New CBD lane-miles being kept from autos + trucks                                     115

Average width of a street lane, feet                                                  12               CK
Average width of an avenue lane, feet                                                 11               CK
Avg width of a CBD road (street and avenue, weighted), feet                         11.6           Algebra
Square footage of new car-free CBD lane-miles                                 7,027,344

Representation of this square footage as parkland
Note: This is for envisioning purposes only; the Kheel Plan does not assume or
require converting the "newly minted" road and street space to park space.
Acreage of new car-freeCBD lane-miles                                       160
Acreage of Washington Square Park                                          9.75                NYC Parks
http://www.nycgovparks.org/sub_your_park/historical_signs/hs_historical_sign.php?id=6537
"Number of Washington Square Parks" of new public space                                16
Acreage of Madison Square Park                                                      6.234      NYC Parks
http://www.nycgovparks.org/sub_your_park/park_info_pages/park_info.php?propID=M052
"Number of Madison Square Parks" of new public space                                   26
Acreage of the High Line                                                              6.7
http://www.thehighline.org/about/highlinebackground.html                                     Friends of the
"Spans 22 blocks, from 34th Street to Gansevoort Street 1.45 miles long." (Ibid.)                High Line
"Number of High Lines" of new public space                             24
Representation of this square footage as lanes for buses, bicycles, pedestrians
Linear miles of new car-free CBD lane-miles                            115
charging system.
MT within the CBD.




TK implies 6, but Mapquest shows 5]




ake 15% off BTK figure)
ake 10% off BTK figure)




putted in Summary
EFFECTS OF THE KHEEL PLAN ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP
(All figures are person trips entering Manhattan CBD)
                                                                  COMMUTER
                            AUTO         SUBWAY         BUS         RAIL   BICYCLE

24-HOURS

EST. 2007                   1,068,000    1,916,100      290,100     287,800   45,600
   Percent of Total Transit Trips            76.8%        11.6%       11.5%
K. Plan Gross Impacts        (292,500)     343,900       27,700      49,600   42,600

TOTAL w/ Plan                775,500     2,260,000      317,800     337,400   88,200
  Percent Increase            -27.4%         17.9%         9.5%       17.2%    93.4%

8 - 9 AM

EST. 2007                      78,200     379,300       58,300       82,400    6,800
  Percent of Total Transit Trips            72.9%        11.2%        15.8%

K. Plan Gross Impacts        (26,900)      28,400        1,600       14,200    6,400

Reassignments                             (32,000)      14,700       12,200

TOTAL w/ Plan                 51,300      375,700       74,600      108,800   13,200
  Percent Increase            -34.4%        -0.9%        28.0%        32.0%    94.1%
Population & Employment             1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet is drawn from two NYMTC spreadsheets: New York Urban Region Employment by County, 1970-2030; and New York Urban
Population by County, 1970-2030. Those spreadsheets contain actual data for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2002, and projections for 5-yea
2005 to 2030. I have eliminated most columns, in order to focus on the 2002 data and 2010 projections that we use in Reassignments to b
2004 hub-bound travel data to the present (2007). All rows past those for New York City could be eliminated as well.

                                            POPULATION (000)                                                EMPLOYMENT (000)
      AREANAME               1990          2000      2002           2005        2010          1990         2000
NEW YORK CITY             7,322.6       8,008.3   8,072.0        8,209.3     8,411.7       3,966.1      4,277.3
Bronx                     1,203.8       1,332.7   1,358.4        1,367.5     1,391.1         237.8        269.4
Kings                     2,300.7       2,465.3   2,475.7        2,515.3     2,565.9         504.5        584.6
New York                  1,487.5       1,537.2   1,555.4        1,583.0     1,625.8       2,565.1      2,682.2
Queens                    1,951.6       2,229.4   2,227.2        2,272.7     2,334.3         567.3        624.1
Richmond                    379.0         443.7     455.4          470.9       494.7          91.6        116.9

LONG ISLAND               2,609.2       2,753.9      2,795.0     2,837.2     2,923.1       1,329.8     1,457.5
Nassau                    1,287.4       1,334.5      1,339.3     1,357.4     1,377.7          716.8       743.3
Suffolk                   1,321.8       1,419.4      1,455.7     1,479.8     1,545.4          613.0       714.2

MID HUDSON                2,026.0       2,179.2      2,225.3     2,312.8     2,422.4       1,009.2      1,079.6
Dutchess                    259.5         280.2        287.7       300.1       328.0         140.4        139.4
Orange                      307.6         341.4        355.8       375.6       408.9         128.3        149.8
Putnam                       83.9          95.7         98.5       101.9       110.0          26.3         32.9
Rockland                    265.5         286.8        291.2       298.9       315.7         122.7        133.7
Sullivan                     69.3          74.0         74.1        79.1        90.3          31.8         33.1
Ulster                      165.3         177.7        180.1       188.8       195.2          76.2         81.6
Westchester                 874.9         923.5        937.9       968.2       974.2         483.6        509.2

NEW JERSEY                6,097.1       6,661.8      6,790.2     6,927.0     7,095.9       3,403.9      3,748.3
Bergen                      825.4         884.1        894.5       905.4       907.4         533.8        570.2
Essex                       778.0         793.6        795.9       809.8       818.0         436.2        451.1
Hudson                      553.1         609.0        609.9       622.1       648.6         273.5        287.6
Hunterdon                   107.9         122.0        126.7       130.0       136.1          51.4         68.8
Mercer                      325.8         350.8        358.2       366.5       388.4         223.6        244.3
Middlesex                   671.7         750.2        772.4       785.6       813.5         407.5        474.4
Monmouth                    553.2         615.3        627.7       652.0       665.0         265.5        306.6
Morris                      421.3         470.2        478.6       494.8       500.4         288.4        342.6
Ocean                       433.2         510.9        536.8       552.9       574.1         146.1        179.4
Passaic                     470.9         489.0        496.5       498.8       503.8         225.0        218.8
Somerset                    240.2         297.5        307.7       314.9       330.4         166.1        217.7
Sussex                      130.9         144.2        148.9       152.0       156.1          42.0         53.1
Union                       493.8         522.5        528.9       530.8       538.8         303.0        289.2
Warren                       91.7         102.4        107.5       111.4       115.4          41.9         44.3

CONNECTICUT               1,806.0       1,888.8      1,916.7     1,958.4     2,016.5       1,028.0      1,064.9
Fairfield                   827.7         882.6        894.6       916.1       945.7         509.6        536.9
Litchfield                  174.1         182.2        186.4       191.9       206.9          83.0         89.5
New Haven                   804.2         824.0        835.7       850.4       863.9         435.4        438.6

REGION                   19,860.8      21,491.9    21,799.2     22,244.7    22,869.6      10,737.0     11,627.7

Source: New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, September 2004
Note: 2002 estimates from U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
      Analysis by Community Consulting Services, March 2005
 nty, 1970-2030; and New York Urban Region
  and 2002, and projections for 5-year periods from
s that we use in Reassignments to bring NYMTC
nated as well.                                          Annualized Annualized
                                                        Population Employment
          EMPLOYMENT (000)                                Increase    Increase
                   2002       2005              2010     2002-2010 2002-2010
                4,145.2    4,177.1           4,460.4         0.52%       0.92%
                  274.3      282.0             295.5         0.30%       0.93%
                  588.2      590.5             621.6         0.45%       0.69%
                2,548.8    2,545.8           2,737.7         0.55%       0.90%
                  617.5      635.4             668.3         0.59%       0.99%
                  116.3      123.4             137.4         1.04%       2.10%

                   1,464.1      1,488.8      1,565.7        0.56%       0.84%
                     742.6         742.7        767.3       0.35%       0.41%
                     721.5         746.0        798.4       0.75%       1.27%

                   1,094.2      1,123.8      1,170.9        1.07%       0.85%
                     142.1        145.8        154.8        1.66%       1.08%
                     152.2        160.4        171.4        1.75%       1.50%
                      34.0         36.5         38.3        1.39%       1.50%
                     137.7        142.0        148.7        1.01%       0.96%
                      33.8         34.8         36.3        2.50%       0.90%
                      81.7         86.1         88.5        1.01%       1.00%
                     512.7        518.1        532.9        0.48%       0.48%

                    3766.5      3,882.0      4,079.5        0.55%       1.00%
                     566.9        581.3        593.1        0.18%       0.57%
                     447.1        442.3        456.6        0.34%       0.26%
                     289.4        286.6        300.4        0.77%       0.47%
                      71.7         75.3         83.4        0.90%       1.90%
                     252.8        260.0        271.5        1.02%       0.89%
                     474.2        503.0        528.1        0.65%       1.35%
                     315.1        332.4        357.8        0.72%       1.60%
                     344.2        367.0        392.0        0.56%       1.64%
                     189.4        199.7        216.4        0.84%       1.68%
                     213.6        217.7        220.0        0.18%       0.37%
                     213.4        233.2        262.7        0.89%       2.63%
                      54.9         58.8         63.6        0.59%       1.86%
                     287.9        278.2        284.2        0.23%      -0.16%
                      45.9         46.6         49.7        0.89%       0.99%

                    1056.2      1,072.2      1,135.3        0.64%       0.91%
                     530.1        534.8        568.3        0.70%       0.87%
                      89.7         93.6        100.2        1.31%       1.40%
                     436.5        443.8        466.8        0.42%       0.84%

                  11,526.2     11,743.9     12,411.8        0.60%       0.93%
f Economic Analysis
Bicycles                    1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the number of trips that will be diverted from transit to bicycling, both
total and by mode, as a result of the improved cycling infrastructure in the CBD and the reduction
in automobile VMT in the CBD and citywide.

Many of the values here are drawn from Section I ("Longevity Benefits of Increased Cycling and
Walking") from the Cost-Benefit worksheet.

Bicycle's current share of vehicular trips in NYC                                                    2.00%
Increase in share of such trips estimated to result from cordon fee / free transit                   1.87%
Ratio, increase in cycling share to the to existing cycling share                                      0.93
Estimated daily non-commercial cycling trips in NYC, currently                                     380,000
Derived by Komanoff in spreadsheet, "Komanoff estimates of NYC cycling levels _ 3 July 2007.xls."
Estimated increase in non-commercial cycling trips in NYC                                          355,000
Percentage of current cycling trips that end in the Manhattan CBD                                      60%
Transportation Alternatives, "Bicycle Blueprint" (1993), Table, "Daily Bicycle Trips in NYC," p.
158. Above figure is ratio of "daily bicycle trip ends" in CBD to all such trip ends in NYC.
Percentage of cycling trips ending in Manhattan CBD that originate outside CBD                         20%
Komanoff estimate. Allows for return trips (i.e., these are included in the other 80%).
Above row, expressed as the daily number of trips                                                   45,600
Estimated increase in non-commercial cycling trips that will end in CBD                            213,000
Applies CBD's existing share of trips. May be conservative in light of sharper VMT drop in CBD.
Increase in non-commercial cycling trips into CBD that originate outside                            42,600
Breakdown of prior (current) modes for these trips (if not cycled)
  Automobile (includes taxi)                                                                             5%
  Subway                                                                                                75%
  Bus                                                                                                    5%
  Walk                                                                                                  10%
  Trip not taken                                                                                         5%
  Total                                                                                                100%
Komanoff estimates. All figures are "hard-wired" except subway, which = 100% less sum of the others.
Daily trips into CBD converted from subway to bicycle                                               32,000
Daily trips into CBD converted from bus to bicycle                                                   2,000
CO2 (Carbon Dioxide)                   1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet calculates the reduction in emissions of CO2 from the two policy options combined.

Note: Figures here do not yet reflect the elimination of non-CBD trips due to citywide free transit.

A. Key Assumptions and Factors

Pounds of carbon dioxide emitted per gallon of gasoline                                     19.63
Source: Carbon Tax Center.

Estimated miles per gallon and resulting CO2/mile for vehicle types                                          CO2
                                                                                              mpg           lb/mi
Taxicabs in typical traffic conditions                                                          13          1.51
Komanoff/Transportation Alternatives, "Rolling Carbon" analysis (in spreadsheet "Rolling Carbon Commuting Scenarios _ 28
August 2007.xls," Autos worksheet. Assumes actual traffic conditions where taxis operate.
 Percentage reduction in taxi MPG for CBD portion of trips                                     4%
 Percentage addition to taxi MPG for non-CBD portion of trips                                  6%
Komanoff assumptions. First figure is intended to reflect even-greater traffic congestion in the CBD (and resulting lower
mileage), compared to overall taxi travel. Second figure is calculated to offset first when inside/outside CBD shares are
accounted for.
Taxicabs within CBD                                                                           12.5          1.57
Taxicabs outside CBD                                                                          13.8          1.42
Automobiles (light-duty vehicles) in typical NYC traffic                                      16.1          1.22
Komanoff/T.A., Rolling Carbon analysis (above). Assumes actual traffic conditions where autos operate.
MPG penalty to LDV figure to reflect heavy-duty veh's in mix of elim'd trips                   2%
Komanoff assumption. Would be greater (~5%) but for presumption that relatively few truck trips will be dissuaded.
Motor vehicles in typical traffic into/from CBD                                               15.8          1.24
 Percentage reduction in MPG for CBD portion of trips                                         10%
 Percentage addition to MPG for non-CBD portion of trips                                       5%
Komanoff assumptions.
Motor vehicles within CBD                                                                     14.2          1.38
Motor vehicles outside CBD                                                                    16.6          1.18

B. CO2 Reductions (calculations) -- all figures below pertain to the combination of the cordon fee and free transit.

                                                       Inside CBD                                    Outside CBD
                                               Taxis         Other           Total           Taxis         Other            Total
VMT reductions per day                       6,500       841,500        848,000             4,300     5,662,700     5,667,000
CO2 reductions, pounds per day              10,200     1,163,300      1,173,500             6,100     6,709,700     6,715,800
CO2 reductions, tons per year                1,680       191,940        193,620             1,010     1,107,100     1,108,110

C. Current CO2 Emissions from Motor Vehicles

NYC Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2005

All sources, million metric tons                                                              58.3
Source: PlaNYC, p. 9. We assume GHG's equate to CO2.
Percentage of above attributable to cars and trucks                                           20%
Ibid.
CO2 from cars and trucks, million metric tons                                                 11.7
Pounds per metric ton                                                                       2,205
CO2 from cars and trucks, million tons                                                       12.9
Percent of above eliminated by the combined policies                                          10%
nd free transit.

                       Both Trip Portions
                     Taxis       Other        Total
                   10,800    6,504,200   6,515,000
                   16,300    7,873,000   7,889,300
                    3,000    1,299,000   1,302,000
Hub-Bound Travel                               1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet was created by C. Komanoff on 25 Oct 2007.
It slightly adapts a spreadsheet from Brian Ketcham, who in turn adapted it from data provided by NYMTC.
The original NYMTC data may be found in a Komanoff spreadsheet, "Hub-Bound Travel 2006 _ 25 Oct 2007.xls.

Note that the NYMTC data did not include entires into the Hub via the Lincoln Tunnel.
These had to be estimated separately, further below, to calculate total vehicle entries into the CBD.

                                               Results (motor vehicle entries to Hub on typical weekday, by classification) are

                                                                             Hub-Bound 2006 Vehicle Classification and Occupancy Sur
                                                                                      Vehicle Classification Counts by Sector

                                                      CL 1        CL 2         CL 3         CL 4         CL 5         CL 6
                                                                           2-Axle, 4-                2-Axle, 6-
                                                              Passenger   Tire Single               Tire Single       3-Axle
                                                Motorcycles        Cars         Units      Buses          Units Single Units
             60th Street Sector

Southbound - Inbound
FDR Drive                                                4      61,469        2,944          411            0            0
York Avenue                                             17      24,171          529          376          259           38
Second Avenue                                           71      46,663        1,223        1,171        3,074          349
Lexington Avenue                                        62      24,926        2,430          912        1,385          187
Park Avenue                                              8      24,464          310          108          275           41
Fifth Avenue                                            37      28,930          289          828          783          513
7th Avenue between 58th and 59th Street                 16      15,527          292          357          432          496
7th Ave Xtens btw7th Ave Pk Exit & CPS                   0       7,368            5            0            0            0
Columbus Avenue                                         20      22,942        2,156          650        1,359          172
Broadway between 60th & W 61st Street                   12      18,686        1,221          600          497           49
Bway btw Col Circle & West 60th St                      99      18,325          150          799          729          101
West End Avenue                                         44      14,219          255          386          582           71
West Side Highway                                      126      91,831          867          372          206          116

Sub - Total                                           514      399,519       12,667        6,968        9,579        2,131
Proportion of Total                                  0.1%       92.4%         2.9%         1.6%         2.2%         0.5%

Northbound - Outbound
FDR Drive                                                2      64,911        2,827          476            1            0
York Avenue                                              8       7,214           92          182          103           17
First Avenue                                            44      37,350          727          697        2,052        1,009
Third Avenue                                            13      29,953        2,603        1,070        1,615          128
Park Avenue                                              6      20,695          288           90          200           50
Madison Avenue                                          50      22,887          406          967          759          584
C Park E Dr. btw CPS & 60 St Pk Entr                     0      14,973          103            4          105           60
CPW bet. Columbus Ave. and W 60th St.                   68      16,461          184          521          310           85
Amsterdam Avenue                                        24      19,390        1,788          583        1,395          295
Broadway between 60th & W 61st Street                    9      11,180        1,231          818          800           86
Bway btw Columbus Circle & W 60th St                    77      17,566          127          681          895          126
West End Avenue                                         10       7,721          240          297          462          121
West Side Highway                                       60      51,767          595          143          146          280

Sub - Total                                           369      322,065       11,209        6,526        8,841        2,839
Proportion of Total                                  0.1%       91.4%         3.2%         1.9%         2.5%         0.8%

Westbound
C Park E Dr. btw 5 Ave & C Park East Dr             0      14,999            104             0            105             55

                  Total                           883     736,583      23,979         13,493         18,524             5,024


                                                                           Hub-Bound 2006 Vehicle Classification and Occupancy Sur
                                                                                    Vehicle Classification Counts by Sector

                                          CL 1          CL 2        CL 3           CL 4           CL 5           CL 6

              Brooklyn Sector
Westbound - Inbound
Williamsburg Bridge                                35      61,659            592            331            195            67
Manhattan Bridge - Upper Level                     12      27,365            482            659          2,199           349
Manhattan Bridge - Lower Level                     36       5,279            163            114          1,141           209
Brooklyn Battery Tunnel                             3      26,299            178          2,321            187           209
Booklyn Bridge                                    352      65,029            599            413             80             2

Sub - Total                                       437     185,630          2,012          3,837          3,802           835
Proportion of Total                              0.2%      94.3%           1.0%           1.9%           1.9%           0.4%

Eastbound - Outbound
Williamsburg Bridge - Upper Level                  54      56,709            759            696            520           140
Manhattan Bridge - Upper Level                     14      29,081            611            842          1,628           402
Manhattan Bridge - Lower Level                     63       9,124             97             97            199            29
Brooklyn Battery Tunnel                             5      21,062            149          2,063            119           181
Brooklyn Bridge                                     8      62,456            646            336              9             2

Sub - Total                                       144     178,431          2,261          4,033          2,474           753
Proportion of Total                              0.1%      94.7%           1.2%           2.1%           1.3%           0.4%

                   Total                          581     364,060          4,273          7,870          6,276          1,588

            Queens Sector
Westbound - Inbound
Queens Midtown Tunnel                               3      40,975            902          1,692            577           654
Queensboro Bridge - Upper Level                    95      31,531            264             34             40             0
Queensboro Bridge - Lower Level                    74      46,874            687            584          2,351           482
Queensboro Bridge - Ramp from 59th St.              1      13,542             49              0             47             6

Sub - Total                                       172     132,921          1,902          2,309          3,014          1,141
Proportion of Total                              0.1%      93.7%           1.3%           1.6%           2.1%           0.8%

Eastbound - Outbound
Queens Midtown Tunnel                               7      38,912          1,003          1,058            579           610
Queensboro Bridge - Upper Level                    97      38,161            487            393            230           389
Queensboro Bridge - Lower Level                    76      34,786            822            533          2,837           722

Sub - Total                                       179     111,858          2,311          1,984          3,646          1,720
Proportion of Total                              0.1%      91.8%           1.9%           1.6%           3.0%           1.4%

                   Total                          351     244,779          4,212          4,293          6,660          2,861


             Holland Tunnel
Eastbound - Inbound
Holland Tunnel                                      7      36,158            747           329            600            325
Proportion of Total                              0.0%       94.7%         2.0%          0.9%         1.6%          0.8%

Westbound - Outbound
Holland Tunnel                                      6      39,387          885           345          144           111
Proportion of Total                              0.0%      96.3%          2.2%          0.8%         0.4%          0.3%

 Total Vehicles Entering CBD, except via
             Lincoln Tunnel                     1,130     754,227       17,327        13,442       16,994          4,431

Proportion of Total                              0.1%       93.2%         2.1%          1.7%         2.1%          0.5%

            Lincoln Tunnel                 This approximation does not employ vehicle class percentages from the other crossings, due
    Ketcham-Komanoff approximation         Tunnel traffic. Instead, we use gross vehicle classification percentages from NYMTC's 1996 C
                                           Tunnel Eastbound traffic. These are shown below. Results of our approximation are show

Total vehicle entries via Lincoln Tunnel       63,000 from NYMTC Hub-Bound 2004 Survey

L. Tunnel autos, taxis, motorcycles              70% sum of auto + taxi shares below (Eastbound); includes motorcycles, but presumably de min
L. Tunnel light trucks, buses                    22% calculated as bus share + 60% of truck share
L. Tunnel heavy trucks                            8% calculated as 40% of truck share                       Grand total entries to Hub

NYMTC's 1996 Classification Study               AUTO          TAXI      TRUCK           BUS
LINCOLN TUNNEL EB                               60.5%         9.3%        19.7%        10.5% Note: 60.5% (at far left of table) was reported as
LINCOLN TUNNEL WB                               65.7%       10.2%         15.4%         8.8%
HOLLAND TUNNEL EB                               72.4%         4.9%        21.0%         1.7%
HOLLAND TUNNEL WB                               72.2%         4.7%        20.9%         2.1%
eekday, by classification) are shown at far bottom, far right.

assification and Occupancy Survey
 ation Counts by Sector

                   CL 7         CL 8       CL 9         CL 10         CL 11          CL12         CL 13        Total
               4 or more    4 or more     5-Axle     6 or more      5 or Less                   7 or More
              Axle Single Less Single     Single    Axle Single    Axle Multi- 6-Axle Multi-   Axle Multi-                Autos
                    Units     Trailers   Trailers       Trailers      Trailers      Trailers      Trailers             (w/o M/C)



                      0             0         0              0              0             0             0     64,828      61,469
                      3             0         0              0              0             0             0     25,392      24,171
                    206            30       275             62              0             0             0     53,121      46,663
                      6             6        25              1              0             0             1     29,939      24,926
                      0             0         0              0              0             0             0     25,205      24,464
                      6             0        30              0              0             0             0     31,416      28,930
                      2             0         0              0              0             0             0     17,121      15,527
                      0             0         0              0              0             0             0      7,373       7,368
                      6             1       107              7              0             0             0     27,419      22,942
                      0             0        17              0              0             0             0     21,079      18,686
                     14             0        61              0              0             1             0     20,276      18,325
                     34            15         2              0              0             0             0     15,607      14,219
                     14             0         0              0              0             0             0     93,531      91,831

                    290            52      515              70            0              1            1      432,304     399,519
                   0.1%         0.0%      0.1%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%


                      0             0         0               0             0             0             0     68,217      64,911
                      1             0         0               0             0             0             0      7,615       7,214
                     43             6       215               1             0             0             0     42,142      37,350
                      2             0        89               0             0             0             0     35,471      29,953
                      3             0         1               0             0             0             0     21,332      20,695
                      9             0        18               0             0             0             0     25,679      22,887
                      0             0         1               0             0             0             0     15,246      14,973
                     27             1        20               0             0             0             0     17,676      16,461
                     12             0        85               0             0             0             0     23,571      19,390
                      4             1        41               0             0             0             0     14,169      11,180
                      4            12        51               1             0             0             0     19,539      17,566
                     32            15         1               0             0             0             0      8,898       7,721
                     14             0         0               0             0             0             0     53,004      51,767

                    151            35      520              2             0              0            0      352,555     322,065
                   0.0%         0.0%      0.1%           0.0%          0.0%           0.0%         0.0%
                       0             0              0               0              0             0              0        15,262    14,999

                     441            86           1,035             72              0             1              1       800,120   736,583


assification and Occupancy Survey
 ation Counts by Sector

             CL 7           CL 8          CL 9           CL 10           CL 11          CL12          CL 13          Total



                       0             1             31               0              0             0              0        62,910    61,659
                       0             0            106               0              0             0              0        31,170    27,365
                      49             6            101              12              1             0              0         7,109     5,279
                       0             0             10               0              0             0              0        29,205    26,299
                       0             0              0               0              0             0              0        66,474    65,029

                       49             7           247               12              1             0              0      196,867   185,630
                    0.0%           0.0%          0.1%            0.0%            0.0%          0.0%           0.0%


                       0             0             49               0              0             0              0        58,926    56,709
                       1             0            159               0              0             0              0        32,737    29,081
                       7             0             17               2              0             0              0         9,632     9,124
                       0             1              3               0              0             0              0        23,582    21,062
                       0             0              0               0              0             0              0        63,455    62,456

                       8              1           227               2               0             0              0      188,331   178,431
                    0.0%           0.0%          0.1%            0.0%            0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

                      57             7            474              14              1             0              0       385,198   364,060



                      19             0              6               1              0             0              0        44,826    40,975
                       1             0              0               0              0             0              0        31,965    31,531
                       6             3            437               0              0             0              0        51,495    46,874
                       0             0              0               0              0             0              0        13,644    13,542

                       25             3           443               1               0             0              0      141,929   132,921
                    0.0%           0.0%          0.3%            0.0%            0.0%          0.0%           0.0%


                      10             1              1               0              0             0              0        42,179    38,912
                       0             0              0               0              0             0              0        39,756    38,161
                      27             4            102               0              0             0              0        39,907    34,786

                       37             5           103               0               0             0              0      121,841   111,858
                    0.0%           0.0%          0.1%            0.0%            0.0%          0.0%           0.0%

                      62             7            546               1              0             0              0       263,770   244,779




                      12             2              0               0              0             0              0        38,178    36,158
                        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%


                           3            2             1            0             0            0             0     40,883      39,387
                        0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%


                         376            62        1,205            82             1            1             1   809,277     754,227

                        0.0%         0.0%          0.1%         0.0%          0.0%         0.0%          0.0%

ges from the other crossings, due to the sui generis quality of Lincoln
ercentages from NYMTC's 1996 Classification Count study, for Lincoln
of our approximation are shown at right.



s motorcycles, but presumably de minimis, can be ignored.                                                                     43,974

   Grand total entries to Hub (incl. via Lincoln Tunnel) are shown immediately to right:                                   798,201

                                                                                                                              Autos
% (at far left of table) was reported as 60.6% by BTK. It was reduced by 0.1% by CK to make %'s sum to 100.0%.             (w/o M/C)


                                                                                                                                92%
Lt Trucks    Heavy
 + Buses    Trucks



    3,355        0
      905      300
    2,394    3,994
    3,341    1,610
      418      316
    1,117    1,332
      648      930
        5        0
    2,806    1,652
    1,821      562
      948      904
      641      704
    1,239      336

   19,634   12,637   431,790



    3,303        1
      274      121
    1,423    3,326
    3,672    1,833
      377      254
    1,373    1,369
      107      166
      705      443
    2,371    1,786
    2,049      932
      808    1,088
      536      631
      738      440

   17,734   12,387   352,186
  104      160     15,262

37,472   25,183   799,237




   922      294
 1,140    2,654
   277    1,517
 2,499      405
 1,012       82

 5,849    4,952   196,430



 1,455      708
 1,453    2,190
   194      252
 2,212      304
   981       11

 6,294    3,464   188,188


12,142    8,415   384,617



 2,594    1,255
   298       41
 1,271    3,277
    49       53

 4,211    4,626   141,757



 2,061    1,200
   880      619
 1,354    3,691

 4,294    5,510   121,662


 8,505   10,135   263,419




 1,076     938     38,171
    1,229      261     40,877



   30,769    23,151   808,147




   14,062     4,964    63,000

  44,830    28,115 871,147

Lt Trucks    Heavy
 + Buses    Trucks     Total


      5%        3%
H.I.S. (Household Interview Survey)                     1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008


This worksheet presents data from the NYMTC 1997-98 Household Interview Survey that informs some of the parameter
estimates used in this spreadsheet. The data were compiled under the supervision of George Haikalis.


1. Average Toll Cost

This section estimates the average tolls paid by drivers entering the CBD. It establishes that the average agrees with the
L.I. figure to within 10%, indicating that the East River bridges toll average is a reasonable proxy for tolls paid from all
directions.

TABLE X-3: TRIPS TO AND FROM NEW YORK CITY

                                                                     WORK

                                                           Mass                                                                %
                                                                                                 Auto+Taxi       Work
                                Bus        Rail/Ferry     Transit        Auto          Taxi                                   Mass
                                                                                                   Total         Totals
                                                           Total                                                             Transit
Long Island                        1,360    131,836       133,196       211,672          3,127     214,799       347,995      38.3%
North of NYC                       4,982    102,511       107,493       110,661          3,354     114,015       221,508      48.5%
West of Hudson R.                 87,386    143,615       231,001       185,355          8,515     193,870       424,871      54.4%
Total                             93,728    377,962       471,690       507,688         14,996     522,684       994,374      47.4%

Source: NYMTC 1997/98 Household Interview Survey

Same data reformatted to estimate tolls now paid by drivers
(taxis excluded)                                                                                  Estimated        Cross
                                                 Work     Non-work     Combined                   Toll (2005)    Products
Long Island                                 211,672       339,181       550,853                       $2.76     1,518,288
North of NYC                                110,661       128,082       238,743                       $0.50       119,372
West of Hudson R.                           185,355       175,650       361,005                       $5.00     1,805,025
TOTAL                                                                   1,150,601                                3,442,685
Average:                                                                                                            $2.99
Ratio, average to L.I. figure                                                                                        1.09

Toll rates are for round trips. L.I. figure is from Price to Drive worksheet. North of NYC assumes token amount for NYS Thruway, CT
Pike and Harlem Riv crossings. West of Hudson reflects Port Authority crossings discounts for off-peak and E-ZPass (see
http://www.panynj.gov/CommutingTravel/bridges/pdfs/01_08_05_TollRatesFile.pdf).



2. Work vs. Non-work Trips -- for all trips (whereas we need Work vs. Non-work for auto trips only)

Table X-7: Trips to the Manhattan CBD from Non-CBD origins by Time of Arrival
Presumably is transit plus motor v. trips combined.

Type                              Work                      NON-WORK                       TOTAL
12-6a                           21,561       1.5%          18,214  2.4%                39,775    1.8%
6-10a                        1,064,813      72.6%         243,745 31.8%             1,308,558   58.6%
10a-4p                         240,448      16.4%         295,228 38.5%               535,676   24.0%
4-8p                           112,047       7.6%         154,093 20.1%               266,140   11.9%
8p-12a                          28,363       1.9%          55,483  7.2%                83,846    3.8%
Total                        1,467,232      100.0%        766,763 100.0%            2,233,995 100.0%

Source: NYMTC 1997/98 Household Interview Survey
Same data reformatted to compare work to non-work trips.

                                   Totals      Totals        Re-apportioned to squeeze into:           85%     Rounded
Work trips                     1,467,232        66%                                                   56%           55%
Non-work trips                   766,763        34%                                                   29%           30%
Total                          2,233,995       100%                                                   85%

Re-apportionment is done to divide trips among work, non-work and taxi, in Driver Equilibrium worksheet. The percentages are then
rounded to the nearest 5 percent.



3. Breakdown of Subway trips according to their relationship to the CBD cordon.

                              2004 counts                      1997/98 NYMTC HIS
                                                              work non-work               total
Intra-CBD                        389,098                  220,662       89,883       310,545
To and from CBD                3,139,528                1,320,725      644,776     1,965,501
Non-CBD                        1,087,587                  554,194      928,845     1,883,701
Total                          4,616,213                2,094,067    1,660,962     3,755,029

CBD-related %                       76%                                                  52%
Half of above                       38%                                                  26%
Rounded down                        30%


4. Work vs. Non-Work Trips to the CBD

TABLE X-1: WORK / NON-WORK TRIPS TO THE MANHATTAN CBD

                                                                       WORK by Mode of Travel

                                                                       Mass
                                                        Revised                                              Auto+Tax Work
                                             Bus                      Transit         Auto         Taxi
                                                        Rail/Ferry                                            i Total Totals
                                                                       Total

                          Manhattan CBD        34,389      220,662       255,051        58,945      75,077       134,022   389,073
                          Upper Manhattan      18,543      165,365       183,908        18,784      21,478        40,262   224,170
                          Queens                8,152      206,218       214,370        44,619       9,560        54,179   268,549
                          Bronx                 4,684       82,905        87,589         5,112         822         5,934    93,523
                          Brooklyn              4,148      226,462       230,610        40,819       1,355        42,174   272,784
                          Staten Island        11,894       18,247        30,141        11,427         904        12,331    42,472
                          Bklyn-Qns            12,300      432,680       444,980        85,438      10,915        96,353   541,333
                          Upper Man.-Bronx     23,227      248,270       271,497        23,896      22,300        46,196   317,693
                          NYC no CBD           47,421      699,197       746,618       120,761      34,119       154,880   901,498
                          Total NYC            81,810      919,859     1,001,669       179,706     109,196       288,902 1,290,571
                          Nassau                    0       86,727        86,727        30,271       1,594        31,865   118,592
                          Suffolk                 304       27,816        28,120        10,533       1,533        12,066    40,186
                          Total LI                304      114,543       114,847        40,804       3,127        43,931   158,778
                          Westchester           1,752       53,486        55,238        23,163           0        23,163    78,401
                          Putnam                    0        3,049         3,049           248           0           248     3,297
                          New Haven                 0          258           258             0           0             0       258
                          Dutchess                272        2,087         2,359           164         548           712     3,071
         Area of Origin




                          Fairfield                 0       26,007        26,007         3,167       1,595         4,762    30,769
                          Total N. of NYC       2,024       84,887        86,911        26,742       2,143        28,885   115,796
                          Bergen               24,307       11,454        35,761        14,820       1,260        16,080    51,841
                          Rockland              2,005        3,355         5,360         2,868         147         3,015     8,375
        Area of Origin
                         Orange                3,232            2,719         5,951       1,267          0       1,267     7,218
                         Passaic               5,073            1,827         6,900       3,018          0       3,018     9,918
                         Hudson                9,271           41,976        51,247      11,559      1,735      13,294    64,541
                         Essex                 5,344           19,325        24,669       5,776        726       6,502    31,171
                         Union                 1,070           10,241        11,311       3,858        288       4,146    15,457
                         Morris                2,687            5,709         8,396       4,219          0       4,219    12,615
                         Somerset              1,029            2,122         3,151       1,189        410       1,599     4,750
                         Middlesex             4,806            7,076        11,882       5,142          0       5,142    17,024
                         Monmouth              7,711            5,447        13,158       3,885          0       3,885    17,043
                         Ocean                     0              172           172       2,057          0       2,057     2,229
                         Hunterdon               310              634           944           0          0           0       944
                         Warren                    0                0             0         429          0         429       429
                         Sussex                    0              435           435         450        158         608     1,043
                         Mercer                    0            3,408         3,408       2,510      1,130       3,640     7,048
                         Total W. of Hudson R.
                                             66,845           115,900       182,745      63,047      5,854      68,901   251,646
                         Total Suburbs       69,173           315,330       384,503     130,593     11,124     141,717   526,220
                         Total Non-CBD      116,594         1,014,527     1,131,121     251,354     45,243     296,597 1,427,718
                              Grand Totals      150,983     1,235,189     1,386,172     310,299    120,320     430,619 1,816,791
                                                                                                  0.623978
Extracted from the Above table, for non-CBD trips into the CBD
                                                                                      Work Auto N-Wk Auto    Combined
                         Number of trips                                                251,354    230,592    481,946
                         These numbers are from above table.
                         Previous data row, as %                                         52.2%      47.8%      100.0%
                         These percentages will be used in Assignment worksheet.
                         Car Occupancy Rates                                                1.2        1.5
                         These numbers are Komanoff assumptions
                         Number of Cars                                                209,462    153,728     363,190
                         % of Combined                                                     58%        42%       100%
                         % of Combined, re-apportioned to squeeze into:                    49%        36%        85%
                         Rounded                                                           50%        35%

                                                                                      Work Bus N-Wk Bus      Combined
                         Number of trips (careful, incl. express buses)                 116,594     69,605    186,199
                         These numbers are from above table.
                         Previous data row, as %                                         62.6%      37.4%      100.0%

                                                                                      Work Rail N-Wk Rail    Combined
                         Number of trips                                              1,014,527    394,425   1,408,952
                         These numbers are from above table.
                         Previous data row, as %                                         72.0%      28.0%      100.0%
                                NON-WORK
                                                                                    Grand
                       Mass                                                %                     %
                                                    Auto+Taxi Non-Work             Total by
 Bus     Rail/Ferry   Transit     Auto      Taxi                          Mass                  Mass
                                                      Total    Totals              Mode of
                       Total                                             Transit               Transit
                                                                                    Travel
22,684     24,530      47,214    339,181    5,540    344,721   391,935   12.0%     739,930      24.4%
 9,586     24,239      33,825    128,082    2,971    131,053   164,878   20.5%     386,386      36.6%
29,340     46,311      75,651    175,650    6,478    182,128   257,779   29.3%     682,650      44.9%
61,610     95,080     156,690    642,913   14,989    657,902   814,592   19.2%     1,808,966    34.7%
                  NON-WORK by Mode of Travel                                    TOTALS
                                                                            Grand
                        Mass                                       Non-     Total
          Revised                                     Auto+Ta                 by   % Mass
Bus                    Transit    Auto      Taxi                  Work
          Rail/Ferry                                  xi Total              Mode Transit
                        Total                                     Totals
                                                                              of
                                                                            Travel
 61,746       89,883    151,629    86,727    54,345     141,072   292,701     681,774   59.7%
 34,034      118,830    152,864    36,227    18,746      54,973   207,837     432,007   78.0%
  2,066       86,780     88,846    17,426     3,016      20,442   109,288     377,837   80.3%
  2,051       40,741     42,792    17,268         0      17,268    60,060     153,583   84.9%
  7,495       68,351     75,846    54,523     5,275      59,798   135,644     408,428   75.0%
  1,136        6,107      7,243     7,283       591       7,874    15,117      57,589   64.9%
  9,561      155,131    164,692    71,949     8,291      80,240   244,932     786,265   77.5%
 36,085      159,571    195,656    53,495    18,746      72,241   267,897     585,590   79.8%
 46,782      320,809    367,591   132,727    27,628     160,355   527,946   1,429,444   77.9%
108,528      410,692    519,220   219,454    81,973     301,427   820,647   2,111,218   72.0%
      0       11,155     11,155    25,217         0      25,217    36,372     154,964   63.2%
      0        5,324      5,324     2,367         0       2,367     7,691      47,877   69.9%
      0       16,479     16,479    27,584         0      27,584    44,063     202,841   64.7%
  2,254       10,447     12,701     6,458         0       6,458    19,159      97,560   69.6%
      0          677        677       206         0         206       883       4,180   89.1%
      0          450        450     1,738         0       1,738     2,188       2,446   28.9%
      0          208        208       600         0         600       808       3,879   66.2%
    772        8,133      8,905     2,484         0       2,484    11,389      42,158   82.8%
  3,026       19,915     22,941    11,486         0      11,486    34,427     150,223   73.1%
  6,113        1,764      7,877    17,916       304      18,220    26,097      77,938   56.0%
    548          595      1,143         0         0           0     1,143       9,518   68.3%
  1,465       583     2,048     7,948          0     7,948     9,996       17,214   46.5%
    305         0       305     3,695          0     3,695     4,000       13,918   51.8%
  8,322    15,860    24,182    10,947      1,290    12,237    36,419      100,960   74.7%
  1,008     3,601     4,609     5,192          0     5,192     9,801       40,972   71.5%
      0       990       990     2,546          0     2,546     3,536       18,993   64.8%
      0       601       601       885        280     1,165     1,766       14,381   62.6%
      0         0         0       469          0       469       469        5,219   60.4%
      0     3,575     3,575     2,245          0     2,245     5,820       22,844   67.7%
  1,702     6,550     8,252     1,048          0     1,048     9,300       26,343   81.3%
      0         0         0     2,984          0     2,984     2,984        5,213    3.3%
      0     1,587     1,587       522          0       522     2,109        3,053   82.9%
      0       421       421       609          0       609     1,030        1,459   28.9%
    334         0       334       158          0       158       492        1,535   50.1%
      0     1,095     1,095     1,631          0     1,631     2,726        9,774   46.1%
 19,797    37,222    57,019    58,795      1,874    60,669 117,688        369,334   64.9%
 22,823    73,616    96,439    97,865      1,874    99,739 196,178     0 722,398    66.6%
 69,605   394,425   464,030   230,592     29,502   260,094 724,124      2,151,842   74.1%
131,351   484,308   615,659   317,319     83,847   401,166 1,016,825    2,833,616   70.6%
                                        0.648145
TSRPC (Tri-State Regional Planning Commission) Elasticities                             1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008


In August, 1977, the Tri-State Regional Planning Commission published a report, "Short Term Effects of
Transportation Policy Changes on Auto and Transit Ridership" (Interim Technical Report 5303).

The report compiled and distilled the available literature into estimates of elasticities for transit and auto
modes in NYC. It is thoughtful, professional and credible.

Following are the report's best estimates of these elasticities intended for use in NYC, going forward at
that time.

                                                                     Work    Non-work
Direct Elasticities
each figure denotes the percent change in the first variable per one percent change in the second

Transit Volume w/r/t Transit Cost                                     -9%      -23.4%
Transit Volume w/r/t Transit Time                                    -50%        -55%

Auto Volume w/r/t Auto Cost                                         -50%         -90%
Auto Volume w/r/t Auto Time                                        -100%        -124%

                                                                     Work    Non-work
Cross Elasticities
each figure denotes the percent of lost trips in the second mode (due to changes in time or
cost) that is "captured" by the first mode (figures given are absolute values)

Change in Transit Volume per Change in Auto
Volume caused by change in Auto Time                                  95%         40%

Change in Transit Volume per Change in Auto
Volume caused by change in Auto Cost                                  95%         50%

Change in Auto Volume per Change in Transit
Volume caused by change in Transit Time                               95%         53%

Change in Auto Volume per Change in Transit
Volume caused by change in Transit Cost                               95%         50%


Elasticity Formulae

Point Fare Elasticity:
e1 = ( (R2-R1)/R1)/((F2-F1)/F1) or                                          R denotes ridership
R2 = e1*R1*(F2-F1)/F1 + R1                                                  F denotes fare
                                                                            e denotes elasticity
Mid-point Elasticity (not used here)
e2 = ((R2-R1)/(Q1+Q2)/2)/((F2-F1)/(F1+F2)/2) or
R2 = R1*(e2*((F2-F1)+(F1+F2))/((F1+F2)-e2*(F2-F1))
dified 6/3/2008
Price to Drive                   1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet estimates the out-of-pocket cost for a round-trip using an East River crossing, for each year
from the late 1970s to present. The data it generates are used in our independent estimation of the price-
elasticity of motor vehicle trips into the CBD, shown in the Regressions tab.

Constants

NYC fuel-economy penalty (vs. US average)                                                                                22.5%
KEA estimate.
NYC gasoline price premium                                                                                                15%
KEA estimate.
One-way distance (miles) for trips across East River bridges                                                              11.3
KEA estimate from 2003 analysis for "The Hours: Time Savings from Tolling the East River Bridges"
Percentage of drivers who pay to park (at market rate)                                                                    40%
KEA estimate.
Per-mile Cost (perceived by drivers) of insurance, wear, maint. (1975)                                                   $0.05
Per-mile Cost (perceived by drivers) of insurance, wear, maint. (2005)                                                   $0.15
KEA estimates. Lower figure for 2005 (adj. for inflation) is intended to reflect improvements in vehicle reliability.



            US Gas NYC Gas            Avg Car Avg Lt Trk           Lt Trk %     Avg Veh       Miles per Gasoline  Price to   Price to
   Year       Price   Price          MPG, EPA MPG, EPA            NYC VMT      MPG, EPA       Gal., NYC    Cost Park (mkt) Park (avg)
  1970
  1971
  1972
  1973                                     13.4          10.5           0%            13.4         10.4
  1974                                     13.6          11.0           0%            13.6         10.5
  1975                                     14.0          10.5           0%            14.0         10.9                  $5.00   $2.00
  1976                                     13.8          10.8           0%            13.8         10.7                  $5.40   $2.16
  1977                                     14.1          11.2           0%            14.1         10.9                  $5.80   $2.32
  1978        65.2        75.0             14.3          11.6           0%            14.3         11.1      $1.53       $6.20   $2.48
  1979        88.2       101.4             14.6          11.9           0%            14.6         11.3      $2.03       $6.60   $2.64
  1980       122.1       140.4             16.0          12.2           0%            16.0         12.4      $2.56       $7.00   $2.80
  1981       135.3       155.6             16.5          12.5           1%            16.5         12.8      $2.76       $7.40   $2.96
  1982       128.1       147.3             16.9          13.5           2%            16.8         13.0      $2.55       $7.80   $3.12
  1983       122.5       140.9             17.1          13.7           3%            17.0         13.2      $2.42       $8.20   $3.28
  1984       119.8       137.8             17.4          14.0           4%            17.3         13.4      $2.33       $8.60   $3.44
  1985       119.6       137.5             17.5          14.3           5%            17.3         13.4      $2.31       $9.00   $3.60
  1986        93.1       107.1             17.4          14.6           6%            17.2         13.4      $1.81       $9.40   $3.76
  1987        95.7       110.1             18.0          14.9           7%            17.8         13.8      $1.80       $9.80   $3.92
  1988        96.3       110.7             18.8          15.4           8%            18.5         14.4      $1.74      $10.20   $4.08
  1989       106.0       121.9             19.0          16.1           9%            18.7         14.5      $1.90      $10.60   $4.24
  1990       121.7       140.0             20.2          16.1          10%            19.8         15.3      $2.06      $11.00   $4.40
  1991       119.6       137.5             21.1          17.0          11%            20.6         16.0      $1.94      $11.40   $4.56
  1992       119.0       136.9             21.0          17.3          12%            20.6         15.9      $1.94      $11.80   $4.72
  1993       117.3       134.9             20.5          17.4          13%            20.1         15.6      $1.96      $12.20   $4.88
  1994       117.4       135.0             20.7          17.3          14%            20.2         15.7      $1.95      $12.60   $5.04
  1995       120.5       138.6             21.1          17.3          15%            20.5         15.9      $1.97      $13.00   $5.20
  1996       128.8       148.1             21.2          17.2          16%            20.6         15.9      $2.10      $13.40   $5.36
  1997       129.1       148.5             21.5          17.2          17%            20.8         16.1      $2.08      $13.80   $5.52
  1998       111.5       128.2             21.6          17.2          18%            20.8         16.1      $1.80      $14.20   $5.68
  1999       122.1       140.4             21.4          17.0          19%            20.6         15.9      $1.99      $14.60   $5.84
  2000       156.3       179.7             21.9          17.4          20%            21.0         16.3      $2.50      $15.00   $6.00
  2001       153.1       176.1             22.1          17.6          21%            21.2         16.4      $2.43      $16.00   $6.40
  2002       144.1       165.7             22.0          17.5          22%            21.0         16.3      $2.30      $17.00   $6.80
  2003       163.8       188.4             22.2          16.2          23%            20.8         16.1      $2.64      $18.00   $7.20
  2004     192.3      221.1            22.5         16.2         24%          21.0        16.3     $3.07      $19.00       $7.60
  2005     233.8      268.9            22.9         16.2         25%          21.2        16.4     $3.69      $20.00       $8.00
  2006

Gas price (cents/gal.): 1978-1997 are from Monthly Energy Review, May 1998 (hard copy available to KEA). 1998-2000 are from on-line MER. Both sets use
Miles per gallon (US) columns are from Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.9.
Light truck % of NYC VMT refers to the share of "passenger vehicle" VMT by minivans, pickups and SUV's. Figures are KEA estimates.
Average vehicle miles, EPA, denotes the EPA-rated average mpg for passenger vehicles in NYC, weighted by the shares of sedans and light trucks.
Miles per gallon, NYC, denotes estimated actual on-road average for passenger vehicles in NYC.
Toll Cost is derived in Toll Rates worksheet.
Price to Park (market) is KEA estimate, interpolating linearly between 1975 and 2005 rates estimated by KEA.
Other per-mile costs are calculated as linear interpolation of 1975 and 2005 values.
CPI data are from Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm#data. "All Urban Consumers," 1982-84=100.
Other     Toll      Trip CPI (82- Trip Cost
costs    Cost       Cost 84=100)     2000 $
        $0.21
        $0.22 calculated            (adjusted
        $0.38 as sum of             for
        $0.38 green cols.           inflation)
        $0.37
$1.13   $0.38                53.8
$1.21   $0.48                56.9
$1.28   $0.50                60.6
$1.36   $0.51    $5.88       65.2     $15.52
$1.43   $0.55    $6.64       72.6     $15.76
$1.51   $0.66    $7.52       82.4     $15.72
$1.58   $0.74    $8.04       90.9     $15.23
$1.66   $0.91    $8.24       96.5     $14.71
$1.73   $1.03    $8.46       99.6     $14.63
$1.81   $1.04    $8.62      103.9     $14.28
$1.88   $0.99    $8.79      107.6     $14.06
$1.96   $1.14    $8.67      109.6     $13.62
$2.03   $1.34    $9.10      113.6     $13.80
$2.11   $1.36    $9.30      118.3     $13.53
$2.18   $1.46    $9.78      124.0     $13.59
$2.26   $1.70 $10.42        130.7     $13.73
$2.34   $1.74 $10.58        136.2     $13.37
$2.41   $1.76 $10.84        140.3     $13.30
$2.49   $2.04 $11.37        144.5     $13.54
$2.56   $1.88 $11.43        148.2     $13.28
$2.64   $1.99 $11.79        152.4     $13.33
$2.71   $2.22 $12.39        156.9     $13.60
$2.79   $2.13 $12.52        160.5     $13.44
$2.86   $2.17 $12.51        163.0     $13.21
$2.94   $2.24 $13.01        166.6     $13.44
$3.01   $2.27 $13.78        172.2     $13.78
$3.09   $2.40 $14.32        177.1     $13.92
$3.16   $2.34 $14.60        179.9     $13.98
$3.24   $2.46 $15.54        184.0     $14.54
                  $3.31         $2.56   $16.55    188.9     $15.09
                  $3.39         $2.76   $17.84    195.3     $15.73
                                                  201.6

are from on-line MER. Both sets use Table 9.4, Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average.



s of sedans and light trucks.
Future Price                       1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet "grafts" the proposed congestion price onto near-future (2008) price conditions to calculate the increase in the cost of an av
due to congestion pricing, and the corresponding drop in demand.

Note: This worksheet is over-simplified in several respects: (i) it examines only East River trips, and (ii) it does not account for the induceme
resulting from time savings due to reduced traffic. The second issue is treated (and resolved) in the Traffic worksheet.

The percentage increase in trip cost in the "red 2008 row" over the "green 2008 row" is fed into the Traffic worksheet.

Assumptions
Assumed annual increase in U.S. mpg from 2005 baseline:                                                        0.2
Assumed annual increase % in U.S. gas price (nominal) from 2006:                                               5%
Assumed annual increase in price to park (mkt) from 2005 baseline:                                           $1.00
Change in percentage of trips in which driver doesn't pay to park                                             Zero
Assumed annual increase % in Other costs (nominal) from 2005:                                                2.5%
Assumed annual increase in CPI from 2006 (Note: actual increase was 2.85% -- CK, 3 June 2008)                2.5%

                           (cents per gallon)
                 Cong     US Gas      NYC Gas Miles per       Miles per    Gasoline    Toll  Price to   Price to       Other
      Year    Pricing?       Price         Price Gallon, US   Gal., NYC       Cost    Cost Park (mkt) Park (avg)       costs

     2005      No          233.8        268.9         22.9        16.4      $3.69 $2.76         $20.00       $8.00    $3.39
     2006      No          263.5        303.0         22.9        16.6      $4.12 $2.76         $21.00       $8.40    $3.47
     2007      No          276.7        318.2         23.1        16.8      $4.29 $2.76         $22.00       $8.80    $3.56
     2008      No          290.5        334.1         23.3        16.9      $4.46 $2.76         $23.00       $9.20    $3.65
     2008      Yes         290.5        334.1         23.3        16.9      $4.46 ######        $23.00       $9.20    $3.65
     2009                                             23.5        17.1
     2010                                             23.7        17.2                                               % number in box is % incrs
                                                                                                                     figure to red figure in final c
Estimated incrs in 2008 trip cost w/ congestion pricing (over same-year no-congestion-price base):             66%

Note: "NYC Gas Price" (col. D) clearly understates actual 2008 price. User should feel free to input own value in D27. At this writing (2 Jun 2
value of 400 or slightly higher would be appropriate. To restore the prior value for D27, simply edit that cell and write <=D26> (w/o the brack
the increase in the cost of an average trip


oes not account for the inducement to drive
 worksheet.

Traffic worksheet.




                   Trip   CPI (82-   Trip Cost
                   Cost   84=100)       2000 $

               $17.84       195.3     $15.73
               $18.76       201.6     $16.02
               $19.41       206.6     $16.17
               $20.07       211.8     $16.32
               $33.31       211.8     $27.08

       % number in box is % incrs from green
       figure to red figure in final column.



ue in D27. At this writing (2 Jun 2008), a
and write <=D26> (w/o the brackets).
East River Crossings                    1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

Average Daily Crossings (source: NYC DOT, "Manhattan River Crossings," various years, various tables)

                   BBT           QMT       Trib Manh      MTA total             BB            MB            WB              QB

   1970         62,042         77,180        85,121        224,343        100,050        72,077         73,062        126,554
   1971         64,032         81,747        90,372        236,151        102,535        68,681         72,299        120,555
   1972         52,065         74,936        80,052        207,053        103,815        73,803         76,219        136,455
   1973         49,916         74,214        85,592        209,722        102,834        73,401         79,989        138,066
   1974         46,620         75,219        82,676        204,515         99,959        77,198         78,914        138,560
   1975         45,636         65,315        72,566        183,517        103,750        74,320         82,057        144,252
   1976         52,444         65,881        68,325        186,650        102,590        68,057         82,471        145,130
   1977         53,500         71,150        73,276        197,926        104,532        64,835         82,490        146,283
   1978         58,252         72,696        76,572        207,520        104,848        74,257         82,626        138,415
   1979         60,445         69,827        87,885        218,157         91,319        75,403         81,340        133,966
   1980         62,386         73,216        88,439        224,041        103,954        77,914         82,663        127,929
   1981         58,657         81,211        93,361        233,229        102,572        79,589         85,100        127,864
   1982         56,189         78,229        88,158        222,576        110,991        87,760         79,369        136,864
   1983         61,130         78,134        92,967        232,231        115,825        85,222         86,947        125,158
   1984         58,032         74,808        95,247        228,087        110,432        89,104         94,898        134,107
   1985         63,469         76,065        94,644        234,178        116,929       100,825        107,386        150,892
   1986         60,778         71,478        93,432        225,688        126,555        77,784        107,181        158,191
   1987         63,256         77,813        95,795        236,864        123,523        77,519        107,362        151,688
   1988         62,959         76,243        99,438        238,640        129,153        75,221        102,643        153,841
   1989         59,254         72,828        92,720        224,802        131,951        68,593        107,967        152,591
   1990         60,512         71,186        99,840        231,538        129,626        69,550        109,474        140,063
   1991         63,883         80,616        94,487        238,986        128,491        72,695        115,345        131,438
   1992         62,510         81,835        97,198        241,543        125,643        78,117         98,307        141,078
   1993         57,561         77,288        92,660        227,509        134,793        74,526         86,591        135,964
   1994         57,013         68,511        79,536        205,060        134,837        78,418         83,525        151,483
   1995         61,097         73,882        95,696        230,675        131,883        75,126        100,588        157,306
   1996         57,091         72,285        92,981        222,357        131,872        81,075         88,570        161,965
   1997         54,690         78,023        91,313        224,026        147,898        83,209         96,124        184,179
   1998         61,091         79,697        93,863        234,651        144,131        78,172        109,268        192,119
   1999         63,307         80,941        98,553        242,801        127,065        92,311        107,941        189,190
   2000         63,242         80,879       103,079        247,200        147,767        75,684        108,376        182,940
   2001         48,059         72,864       102,224        223,147         95,586        73,064         82,202        176,469
   2002         56,976         82,834        94,759        234,569        121,145        66,152        103,364        176,419
   2003         56,271         85,377        93,177        234,825        134,444        73,767        100,243        184,964
   2004         54,488         86,599        97,958        239,045        137,563        79,129        110,528        180,369
   2005         49,043         86,063        91,898        227,004        132,210        80,363        107,030        178,610

Brooklyn Battery Tunnel 2001 volume was surveyed on 1-Oct-2001 and reported as only 13,762, owing to post-9/11 restrictions. I have estimated that datum
average of that figure from 11-Sept-01 through 31-Dec-31, and of the year-2000 volume for 1-Jan-01 through 10-Sept-01. Other crossings have not been reca
they were only modestly less than 2000 volumes.
                     ER br tot All crossings    MTA %

                     371,743        596,086     37.6%
                     364,070        600,221     39.3%
                     390,292        597,345     34.7%
                     394,290        604,012     34.7%
                     394,631        599,146     34.1%
                     404,379        587,896     31.2%
                     398,248        584,898     31.9%
                     398,140        596,066     33.2%
                     400,146        607,666     34.2%
                     382,028        600,185     36.3%
                     392,460        616,501     36.3%
                     395,125        628,354     37.1%
                     414,984        637,560     34.9%
                     413,152        645,383     36.0%
                     428,541        656,628     34.7%
                     476,032        710,210     33.0%
                     469,711        695,399     32.5%
                     460,092        696,956     34.0%
                     460,858        699,498     34.1%
                     461,102        685,904     32.8%
                     448,713        680,251     34.0%
                     447,969        686,955     34.8%
                     443,145        684,688     35.3%
                     431,874        659,383     34.5%
                     448,263        653,323     31.4%
                     464,903        695,578     33.2%
                     463,482        685,839     32.4%
                     511,410        735,436     30.5%
                     523,690        758,341     30.9%
                     516,507        759,308     32.0%
                     514,767        761,967     32.4%
                     427,321        650,468     34.3%
                     467,080        701,649     33.4%
                     493,418        728,243     32.2%
                     507,589        746,634     32.0%
                     498,213        725,217     31.3%

 restrictions. I have estimated that datum here as the
pt-01. Other crossings have not been recalculated since
Toll Rates                             1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet derives weighted average toll rates for the three East River crossings operated by MTA Bridges & Tunnels

Note: Tolls shown are one-way, but all crossings charge tolls in both directions. This is reflected in Price to Drive worksheet.

Data through 2000 are from Komanoff spreadsheet, "MTA Hub Bound Volumes _ CK Mods 17 Jan 03.xls,"
prepared as part of analysis for TSTC on travel impacts from different MTA toll scenarios.

                    Average daily volumes               Base Passenger Car Toll                    X-Products
                                 Triboro
             BBT        QMT       Manh.      Totals    BBT      QMT    Trib M   Totals     BBT     QMT       TMP     Totals
  1948                26,462     26,465      52,927            $0.25   $0.25
  1949                30,045     32,554      62,599            $0.25   $0.25
  1950     37,258     34,044     36,995     108,297   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     13040     8511     9249    30800
  1951     41,253     36,680     44,639     122,572   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     14439     9170    11160    34768
  1952     45,366     38,866     48,503     132,735   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     15878     9717    12126    37720
  1953     47,999     38,509     48,595     135,103   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.29     16800     9627    12149    38576
  1954     45,120     38,185     52,286     135,591   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     15792     9546    13072    38410
  1955     45,843     39,839     59,913     145,595   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     16045     9960    14978    40983
  1956     48,054     49,544     64,460     162,058   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     16819    12386    16115    45320
  1957     54,490     54,311     64,677     173,478   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     19072    13578    16169    48819
  1958     53,789     58,321     62,982     175,092   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     18826    14580    15746    49152
  1959     49,468     61,115     64,389     174,972   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     17314    15279    16097    48690
  1960     48,970     62,008     63,115     174,093   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     17140    15502    15779    48420
  1961     48,197     62,301     59,603     170,101   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     16869    15575    14901    47345
  1962     48,173     65,038     60,251     173,462   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     16861    16260    15063    48183
  1963     48,271     63,038     60,988     172,297   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     16895    15760    15247    47901
  1964     51,893     67,713     66,139     185,745   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     18163    16928    16535    51626
  1965     56,455     69,386     69,755     195,596   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     19759    17347    17439    54545
  1966     57,674     69,850     71,540     199,064   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     20186    17463    17885    55533
  1967     57,611     69,416     73,602     200,629   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     20164    17354    18401    55918
  1968     60,652     66,432     75,932     203,016   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     21228    16608    18983    56819
  1969     62,116     68,884     78,481     209,481   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     21741    17221    19620    58582
  1970     62,042     77,180     85,121     224,343   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     21715    19295    21280    62290
  1971     64,032     81,747     90,372     236,151   $0.35    $0.25   $0.25    $0.28     22411    20437    22593    65441
  1972     52,065     74,936     80,052     207,053   $0.70    $0.50   $0.50    $0.55     36446    37468    40026   113940
  1973     49,916     74,214     85,592     209,722   $0.70    $0.50   $0.50    $0.55     34941    37107    42796   114844
  1974     46,620     75,219     82,676     204,515   $0.70    $0.50   $0.50    $0.55     32634    37610    41338   111582
  1975     45,636     65,315     72,566     183,517   $0.72    $0.58   $0.58    $0.62     32706    38100    42330   113136
  1976     52,444     65,881     68,325     186,650   $0.75    $0.75   $0.75    $0.75     39333    49411    51244   139988
  1977     53,500     71,150     73,276     197,926   $0.75    $0.75   $0.75    $0.75     40125    53363    54957   148445
  1978     58,252     72,696     76,572     207,520   $0.75    $0.75   $0.75    $0.75     43689    54522    57429   155640
  1979     60,445     69,827     87,885     218,157   $0.75    $0.75   $0.75    $0.75     45334    52370    65914   163618
  1980     62,386     73,216     88,439     224,041   $0.91    $0.91   $0.91    $0.91     56463    66264    80042   202769
  1981     58,657     81,211     93,361     233,229   $1.00    $1.00   $1.00    $1.00     58657    81211    93361   233229
  1982     56,189     78,229     88,158     222,576   $1.18    $1.35   $1.35    $1.31     66080   105770   119194   291044
  1983     61,130     78,134     92,967     232,231   $1.25    $1.50   $1.50    $1.43     76413   117201   139451   333064
  1984     58,032     74,808     95,247     228,087   $1.50    $1.50   $1.50    $1.50     87048   112212   142871   342131
  1985     63,469     76,065     94,644     234,178   $1.50    $1.50   $1.50    $1.50     95204   114098   141966   351267
  1986     60,778     71,478     93,432     225,688   $1.75    $1.75   $1.75    $1.75    106362   125087   163506   394954
  1987     63,256     77,813     95,795     236,864   $1.98    $1.98   $1.98    $1.98    124952   153707   189228   467888
  1988     62,959     76,243     99,438     238,640   $2.00    $2.00   $2.00    $2.00    125918   152486   198876   477280
  1989     59,254     72,828     92,720     224,802   $2.23    $2.23   $2.23    $2.23    132226   162516   206905   501647
  1990     60,512     71,186     99,840     231,538   $2.50    $2.50   $2.50    $2.50    151280   177965   249600   578845
  1991     63,883     80,616     94,487     238,986   $2.50    $2.50   $2.50    $2.50    159708   201540   236218   597465
  1992     62,510     81,835     97,198     241,543   $2.50    $2.50   $2.50    $2.50    156275   204588   242995   603858
   1993     57,561      77,288     92,660        227,509     $2.96    $2.96     $2.96    $2.96   170317   228688    274172   673177
   1994     57,013      68,511     79,536        205,060     $3.00    $3.00     $3.00    $3.00   171039   205533    238608   615180
   1995     61,097      73,882     95,696        230,675     $3.00    $3.00     $3.00    $3.00   183291   221646    287088   692025
   1996     57,091      72,285     92,981        222,357     $3.42    $3.42     $3.42    $3.42   195061   246974    317685   759720
   1997     54,690      78,023     91,313        224,026     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   191415   273081    319596   784091
   1998     61,091      79,697     93,863        234,651     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   213819   278940    328521   821279
   1999     63,307      80,941     98,553        242,801     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   221575   283294    344936   849804
   2000     63,242      80,879    103,079        247,200     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   221347   283077    360777   865200
   2001     48,059      72,864    102,224        223,147     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   168207   255024    357784   781015
   2002     56,976      82,834     94,759        234,569     $3.50    $3.50     $3.50    $3.50   199416   289919    331657   820992
   2003     56,271      85,377     93,177        234,825     $3.81    $3.81     $3.81    $3.81   214524   325485    355221   895230
   2004     54,488      86,599     97,958        239,045     $4.00    $4.00     $4.00    $4.00   217952   346396    391832   956180
   2005     49,043      86,063     91,898        227,004     $4.40    $4.40     $4.40    $4.40   215924   378913    404603   999440
   2006                                                      $4.50    $4.50     $4.50



Toll rate for 2005 reflects March 13, 2005 rollout of $4.50 toll. See http://www.answers.com/topic/triborough-bridge-and-tunnel-authority, or
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/pdf/manrivercross05.pdf.




Manhattan jobs are Annual average employment in New York County, provided to KEA by Solidelle Wasser of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
on July 5, 2005, in response to a data query. "I am attaching data for New York County from the QCEW(Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages) program. Data from 1975 to 1977 are not comparable because there was a change in the coverage of unemployment insurance in 1978.
Annual average data for 2006 are not yet available from this program. Should you have questions on this or any other program with which we can
be of assistance, please let us know. Solidelle Wasser, economist. 212-337-2418" Updated July 26, 2007 with 2006 data for jobs and earnings.
 Bridges & Tunnels

ce to Drive worksheet.


                                        Manhat- Manhat-    Manhattan
               MTA % of Effective       tan Jobs tan Wages Wages / CPI
              E Riv X'ings 1-way toll      000     000,000 (82-84=100)




                     37.6%     $0.10
                     39.3%     $0.11
                     34.7%     $0.19
                     34.7%     $0.19
                     34.1%     $0.19
                     31.2%     $0.19              $   23,582   $   43,833
                     31.9%     $0.24              $   24,976   $   43,895
                     33.2%     $0.25              $   26,642   $   43,963
                     34.2%     $0.26      2,178   $   34,986   $   53,660
                     36.3%     $0.27      2,181   $   37,345   $   51,440
                     36.3%     $0.33      2,205   $   41,513   $   50,380
                     37.1%     $0.37      2,247   $   46,426   $   51,073
                     34.9%     $0.46      2,237   $   50,787   $   52,629
                     36.0%     $0.52      2,245   $   54,854   $   55,074
                     34.7%     $0.52      2,287   $   59,693   $   57,452
                     33.0%     $0.49      2,320   $   64,270   $   59,730
                     32.5%     $0.57      2,353   $   70,566   $   64,385
                     34.0%     $0.67      2,391   $   77,553   $   68,269
                     34.1%     $0.68      2,386   $   84,897   $   71,764
                     32.8%     $0.73      2,376   $   87,142   $   70,276
                     34.0%     $0.85      2,343   $   91,839   $   70,267
                     34.8%     $0.87      2,206   $   90,002   $   66,081
                     35.3%     $0.88      2,125   $   98,550   $   70,242
                           34.5%   $1.02   2,109   $ 99,554   $    68,895
                           31.4%   $0.94   2,118   $100,990   $    68,145
                           33.2%   $0.99   2,104   $108,058   $    70,904
                           32.4%   $1.11   2,142   $118,465   $    75,504
                           30.5%   $1.07   2,263   $129,431   $    80,643
                           30.9%   $1.08   2,306   $142,242   $    87,265
                           32.0%   $1.12   2,382   $151,723   $    91,070
                           32.4%   $1.14   2,287   $172,880   $   100,395
                           34.3%   $1.20   2,342   $175,402   $    99,041
                           33.4%   $1.17   2,249   $162,963   $    90,585
                           32.2%   $1.23   2,212   $162,549   $    88,342
                           32.0%   $1.28   2,214   $176,835   $    93,613
                           31.3%   $1.38   2,249   $189,341   $    96,949
                                           2,296   $210,431   $   104,381


and-tunnel-authority, or




 ureau of Labor Statistics,
 ensus of Employment and
mployment insurance in 1978.
er program with which we can
 6 data for jobs and earnings.
 Value of Time                        1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet compiles prior estimates of the value of a vehicle-hour of travel saved due to traffic re-optimization via cordon fees, free tran
were estimated by Komanoff and Brian Ketcham in 2003, as part of the analysis of East River Bridge Tolls presented in "The Hours: Time S
River Bridges," by Komanoff and Ketcham. That report is available at http://www.bridgetolls.org/research/. Further below we compare these
(Dec. 2007) study of the cost of air traffic delays at Kennedy Airport, which also required positing an average value of travelers' time.

Further below, we report, and compare to, the value of air travelers' time, as estimated in a Dec. 2007 study of air travel delays at Kennedy
NYC Comptroller's Office. We establish that our valuation of motorists' time is only one-fourth as great as that study's valuation of a

Note; "S.O.V." = Single Occupant Vehicle.

                                                      Value of an hour of saved vehicle time, as estimated (separately) by Komanoff and Ke
                                                                                        All dollar values are in 2003 prices
                                           On-peak        On-peak         Off-peak       Off-peak                    Commuter
                                            S.O.V.         Car 2+           S.O.V.         Car 2+            Bus         Van

Share of bridge vehicles                       20%              5%            25%            25%             2%              7%
Komanoff estimates.

Komanoff, low value, 19-June                   $15            $36          $7.50            $15            $190            $45
Komanoff, high value, 19-June                  $30            $72            $15            $30            $340            $90
Komanoff, average                           $22.50            $54         $11.25         $22.50            $265         $67.50
Ketcham, sole value, 20-June                   $25            $50             $15            $30           $325           $100
Ketcham says values could be plus or minus 20%. Following are his explanatory notes.
On-peak S.O.V. or car - assume $25 per person, 2 people per car
Off-peak S.O.V. or car - assume $15 per person, 2 people per car
Bus - average of 10 people at $10 per person off peak, and 30 people at $15 per person on peak, plus $50 per hour for driver.
Commuter van - average of 3 people at $10 per person off peak, and 8 people at $15 per person on peak, plus $20 per hour for driver.
Commercial van - assuming just the driver, on and off-peak, $40 per hour, not including cost of van itself.
Big rig (18-wheeler) - $50 an hour for driver, $80 per hour off-peak and on (ignore BK note that since the industry assumes peak hour travel takes twice, may
Other truck - $45 per hour driver plus $45 per hour for the truck.

Number of people per vehicle            1.0           2.4          1.0          3.0          21.0           6.0
Note: Weighted avg becomes 2.31 if more precise vehicle shares from 2000 are used. (They're in BTAP file, East River Bridge Toll Revenu
Number of people per car (not per motor vehicle)

Value of an hour of saved time for airline passengers at the New York City area's three major airports (JFK, LaGuardia,

Median Value (2005 $/hour)                                                                               $47.97
Inflation adjustment, 2005 to 2007                                                                         1.066
Calculated as ratio of July 2007 to July 2005 Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers
Median Value (2007 $/hour)                                                                               $51.14
Komanoff Average Value (2003 $/hour) for cars                                                            $17.51
Komanoff Average Value (2003 $/hour) per driver or passenger in cars                                     $11.15
Inflation adjustment, 2003 to 2007                                                                         1.133
Calculated as ratio of July 2007 to July 2003 Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers
Komanoff Average Value (2007 $/hour) per driver or passenger in cars                                     $12.64
Ratio, Airline passenger value to Komanoff car user value                                                    4.0

Note: The median value of airline passengers' time (first row in block of rows above was estimated in "Grounded: The Impact of Mounting F
City's Economy and Environment," Office of the New York City Comptroller, Dec. 2007. Page 18 of that report states: "In a soon-to-be publis
impact of airport congestion, economists Steven A. Morrison and Clifford Winston have estimated that for pleasure and business travelers,
in 2005 dollars ranged from $27.13 to $79.16 per hour with a median of $47.97.”

A preliminary version of this "soon-to-be published study" was published in August 2006 under the title, "Another Look at Airport Congestion
Morrison of Northeastern University and Clifford Winston of the Brookings Institution. It is available at
http://www.economics.neu.edu/activities/seminars/documents/Another_Look_at_Airport_Congestion_Pricing.pdf. They wrote, at p. 9:
A preliminary version of this "soon-to-be published study" was published in August 2006 under the title, "Another Look at Airport Congestion
Morrison of Northeastern University and Clifford Winston of the Brookings Institution. It is available at
http://www.economics.neu.edu/activities/seminars/documents/Another_Look_at_Airport_Congestion_Pricing.pdf. They wrote, at p. 9:
"Passengers’ time costs depend on their value of travel time, which varies by trip purpose, and the number of passengers on each flight. Fo
sample, we used the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Household Travel Survey to calculate the percentage of trips whose purp
percentage whose purpose was pleasure and the average household income for business and pleasure travelers. 10 Consistent with the U.
Transportation’s (1997) guidelines, we value business travelers’ travel time at 100 percent of the wage and pleasure travelers’ travel time at
Passengers’ values of time in 2005 dollars ranged from $27.13 to $79.16 per hour with a median of $47.97."
 -optimization via cordon fees, free transit, etc. The values shown
 Tolls presented in "The Hours: Time Savings from Tolling The East
arch/. Further below we compare these values to values from a new
average value of travelers' time.

7 study of air travel delays at Kennedy International Airport for the
s great as that study's valuation of air travelers' time.



ted (separately) by Komanoff and Ketcham in 2003
are in 2003 prices
                   Commercial     Big Rig           Large       Weighted   Wghtd Avg,
                         Van (18-wheeler)           Truck        Average    Cars Only

                            8%          2%            6%          100%


                           $50       $150           $75     $     28.88         $11.68
                          $100       $300          $150     $     56.95         $23.35
                           $75       $225       $112.50     $     42.91         $17.51
                           $40       $130            $90    $     43.45




 0 per hour for driver.

assumes peak hour travel takes twice, maybe these figures should be doubled?)


                         1.25         1.0        1.25               2.36
 AP file, East River Bridge Toll Revenues _ 28 Feb 03 . Xls)
                                                                                  1.57

e major airports (JFK, LaGuardia, Newark)




 "Grounded: The Impact of Mounting Flight Delays on New York
 at report states: "In a soon-to-be published study of the economic
at for pleasure and business travelers, “passengers’ values of time


 e, "Another Look at Airport Congestion Pricing," by Steven A.

_Pricing.pdf. They wrote, at p. 9:
e, "Another Look at Airport Congestion Pricing," by Steven A.

_Pricing.pdf. They wrote, at p. 9:
umber of passengers on each flight. For each of the airports in our
 late the percentage of trips whose purpose was business and the
ure travelers. 10 Consistent with the U.S. Department of
 e and pleasure travelers’ travel time at 70 percent of the wage.
 47.97."
Constants                         1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet compiles numerical parameters (constants) that figure in the various analyses in this spreadsheet.


Day-to-Year Multiplier (ratio of annual travel volumes to weekday)                       330
Day-to-Year Multiplier for typical cycling VMT per day                                   365
Pounds of Carbon per molecule of Carbon Dioxide (CO2)                                  0.273
Feet per mile                                                                           5280
Square feet per acre                                                                 43,560
Regressions                   1/24/2008, slightly modified 6/3/2008

This worksheet applies statistical linear regression to historical data to infer the price-elasticity of motor
vehicle trips across the East River.

Two-year moving averages are used, to "smooth" temporary aberrations in travel data. The one-time
but severe changes in travel patterns imposed after the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center make it
advisable to combine five years of data (2001-2005) into a single averaged data row.

The Summary Output table (further below) indicates that each percentage change in the number of
Manhattan jobs is associated with a 0.61% change in the number of E. River crossings; while each
percentage change in the price to drive across the E. River is associated with an oppositely-signed
70% change in the number of crossings.

That is, the revealed price-elasticity of vehicle trips across the East River is (negative) 70%,
indicating that East River vehicle trips are price-elastic.

This finding jibes extraordinarily well with the auto price-elasticity estimates in the 1977 Tri-State
Regional Planning Commission study (see Tri-State Elasticities worksheet): negative 50% for work
trips and negative 90% for non-work trips.

The Data

                 East River    Manhattan         Price to   % Changes from Prior Period
                 Crossings      Jobs, 000     Cross E Riv   Crossings          Jobs         Price
1978              607,666           2,178         $15.52
1979-80           608,343           2,193         $15.74         0.1%          0.7%         1.4%
1981-82           632,957           2,242         $14.97         4.0%          2.2%        -4.9%
1983-84           651,006           2,266         $14.46         2.9%          1.1%        -3.4%
1985-86           702,805           2,337         $13.84         8.0%          3.1%        -4.3%
1987-88           698,227           2,388         $13.66        -0.7%          2.2%        -1.3%
1989-90           683,078           2,359         $13.66        -2.2%         -1.2%         0.0%
1991-92           685,822           2,165         $13.34         0.4%         -8.2%        -2.4%
1993-94           656,353           2,113         $13.41        -4.3%         -2.4%         0.6%
1995-96           690,709           2,123         $13.46         5.2%          0.5%         0.4%
1997-98           746,889           2,285         $13.32         8.1%          7.6%        -1.0%
1999-2000         760,638           2,335         $13.61         1.8%          2.2%         2.2%
2001-2005         710,442           2,253         $14.65        -6.6%         -3.5%         7.6%

SUMMARY OUTPUT

  Regression Statistics
Multiple R           83%                     ANOVA
R Square             69%                                       df            SS          MS            F         Signif F
Adj R Square         62%                     Regression                2   0.015738 0.0078692 9.9749602 0.005208
Std Error            0.03                    Residual                  9      0.0071 0.0007889
Obsrvtns               12                    Total                    11   0.022839


                              Coefficients     Std Error     t Stat        P-value    Lower 95%     Upper 95%
Intercept                           0.9%            0.8%         1.084        0.306       -1.0%         2.7%
X Var 1 (% change jobs)            60.7%           22.4%         2.715        0.024       10.1%       111.4%
X Var 2 (% change price)          -70.0%           26.0%        -2.689        0.025     -129.0%       -11.1%

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y        Residuals
1979-80                0.3%         -0.2%
1981-82                5.7%         -1.6%
1983-84                3.9%         -1.1%
1985-86                5.8%          2.2%
1987-88                3.1%         -3.8%
1989-90                0.2%         -2.3%
1991-92               -2.4%          2.8%
1993-94               -1.0%         -3.3%
1995-96                0.9%          4.3%
1997-98                6.2%          1.9%
1999-2000              0.7%          1.1%
2001-2005             -6.6%          0.0%


Note: In alternative analysis excluding Triborough Bridge (i.e., with TB Manhattan Plaza crossings zeroed out in E Riv Crossings
and Toll Rates worksheets), the coefficients are virtually unchanged. Here are results:

   Regression Statistics
Multiple R              80%
R Square                64%
Adjusted R Square       57%
Standard Error          0.03
Observations              12

ANOVA
                    df           SS              MS               F     Significance F
Regression                 2 0.0178287        0.008914348     8.14835857 0.00955658
Residual                   9 0.00984605       0.001094005
Total                     11 0.02767475

                Coefficients Standard Error     t Stat         P-value    Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept               0.6%         1.0%            0.663          0.524      -1.6%      2.8%
X Variable 1           64.9%        26.4%            2.461          0.036       5.2%   124.6%
X Variable 2          -69.9%        29.0%           -2.411          0.039    -135.6%     -4.3%

				
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