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The Future of Startups

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					The Future of Startups
Jason Calacanis

Flying Car Survey
Flying cars will be available for purchase in: a) 10 years b) 20 years c) 30 years d) more than 30 years

2004: BBC reports flying cars are 25 years away

Today, 2008: Flying car could be a reality within two years

2019: Blade Runner predicts flying cars above Los Angeles

1949 AeroCar

2008 Moller SkyCar

While the flying car has never arrived, the electric car can't stop arriving.

1913 Edison Electric Car

1973 GM Electric Car

1974 Vanguard-Sebring's CitiCar

1999 General Motors EV-1

2010 - 2011?? GM Volt

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

GM Stock Performance since 1962

Last six recessions

2008 Tesla Roadster

So How Bad Is It?
(Let’s ask the experts)

Household Debt (US)

from Albert Wagner of Union Square Ventures

A VC’s World View

Text

from Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures

Best News = History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time
1996 – Morgan Stanley Global Estimates in ‘The Internet Advertising Report’ 2007 – We’re @

Internet Users: 1.35B(1)

Online Ad Revenue: $41B(2)

Ad Revenue per User: $30(3)

Note: (1) ITU, Morgan Stanley Research estimate, comScore reports a lower number for global unique visitors due to their sampling method; (2) ZenithOptimedia; (3) Using comScore’s #s, global online ad revenue per unique user would have been ~$53; Source: ITU, ZenithOptimedia, Morgan Stanley Research.

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The Future of Startups

1. The Zero-Cost Startup
1995- 2000 Servers 250,000 Office 250,000 Software 1,000,000 Ad serving 250,000 PR 180,000 Recruiter 200,000 Metrics Software 50,000

The Zero-Cost Startup
1995- 2000 2000-2008 Servers 250,000 Cloud Office 250,000 Virtual / Co-locating Software 1,000,000 Open Source Ad serving 250,000 Google / Open Ads PR 180,000 Social Media Recruiter 200,000 LinkedIn / Craigslist Metrics Software 50,000 Google Analytics

2. Experiences over Expenses

3. Everything that can be tried, will be tried.

4. Trust and curation are the future.

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

5. Mid Screen Computing

Small Screen

Mid Screen

Big Screen

6. Surviving is innovative.

6. Surviving is innovative.

6. Surviving is innovative.

iClips

7.Virtual Currency is Real Currency

$34.5 million spent on Facebook virtual goods.
Sept. 2008 - CNET

8. Brands don’t travel.
70,000,000 52,500,000 35,000,000 17,500,000 0 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0

MySpace

CyWorld

USA

Japan

USA

Korea

Source: BusinessWeek Aug 2008