The Future of Startups

The Future of Startups Jason Calacanis Flying Car Survey Flying cars will be available for purchase in: a) 10 years b) 20 years c) 30 years d) more than 30 years 2004: BBC reports flying cars are 25 years away Today, 2008: Flying car could be a reality within two years 2019: Blade Runner predicts flying cars above Los Angeles 1949 AeroCar 2008 Moller SkyCar While the flying car has never arrived, the electric car can't stop arriving. 1913 Edison Electric Car 1973 GM Electric Car 1974 Vanguard-Sebring's CitiCar 1999 General Motors EV-1 2010 - 2011?? GM Volt GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions GM Stock Performance since 1962 Last six recessions 2008 Tesla Roadster So How Bad Is It? (Let’s ask the experts) Household Debt (US) from Albert Wagner of Union Square Ventures A VC’s World View Text from Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures Best News = History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeballs, It Just Takes Time 1996 – Morgan Stanley Global Estimates in ‘The Internet Advertising Report’ 2007 – We’re @ Internet Users: 1.35B(1) Online Ad Revenue: $41B(2) Ad Revenue per User: $30(3) Note: (1) ITU, Morgan Stanley Research estimate, comScore reports a lower number for global unique visitors due to their sampling method; (2) ZenithOptimedia; (3) Using comScore’s #s, global online ad revenue per unique user would have been ~$53; Source: ITU, ZenithOptimedia, Morgan Stanley Research. 45 The Future of Startups 1. The Zero-Cost Startup 1995- 2000 Servers 250,000 Office 250,000 Software 1,000,000 Ad serving 250,000 PR 180,000 Recruiter 200,000 Metrics Software 50,000 The Zero-Cost Startup 1995- 2000 2000-2008 Servers 250,000 Cloud Office 250,000 Virtual / Co-locating Software 1,000,000 Open Source Ad serving 250,000 Google / Open Ads PR 180,000 Social Media Recruiter 200,000 LinkedIn / Craigslist Metrics Software 50,000 Google Analytics 2. Experiences over Expenses 3. Everything that can be tried, will be tried. 4. Trust and curation are the future. 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 5. Mid Screen Computing Small Screen Mid Screen Big Screen 6. Surviving is innovative. 6. Surviving is innovative. 6. Surviving is innovative. iClips 7.Virtual Currency is Real Currency $34.5 million spent on Facebook virtual goods. Sept. 2008 - CNET 8. Brands don’t travel. 70,000,000 52,500,000 35,000,000 17,500,000 0 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 MySpace CyWorld USA Japan USA Korea Source: BusinessWeek Aug 2008