Environmental Status and Trends in East Asia Lessons from

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					Environmental Status and Trends
 in East Asia: Lessons from the
      2005 ESI & 2006 EPI

               Alex de Sherbinin
          CIESIN, Columbia University

      Second Green Growth Policy Dialogue
                 Beijing, China
                23-25 May 2006
                             The ESI & EPI
• ESI: Environmental
  Sustainability Index
• Pilot 2000, 2001, 2002,
  and 2005 versions
•   http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/esi




• EPI: Environmental
  Performance Index
• Pilot 2006 version
•   http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/epi
ESI & EPI Partnership
         Why the ESI & EPI?
• Born out of a recognition
  that environmental policy-
  making needs to be
  – Data-driven
  – Science-based
  – Analytically rigorous
• “What gets measured
  matters”
      Indicators in Context

       Evaluation and Learning   Understanding




                                                   Engagement and
                                                     Deliberation
                                  Goal-Setting




                                 Implementation


Useful Indicators can improve ability to
- Describe problems accurately and saliently
- Diagnose the causes of these problems
- Design solutions commensurate with description and diagnosis
- Drive action with ongoing monitoring and evaluation
              ESI Approach
• Measures the relative progress towards
  environmental sustainability of 146 countries
• The ESI score quantifies the likelihood that a
  country will be able to preserve valuable
  environmental resources effectively over the
  period of several decades.
• Takes a broad view: Gauges society’s natural
  resource endowments, environmental history,
  pollution stocks and flows, resource extraction
  rates, and social and institutional capacity
            ESI Framework

               76 variables


               21 indicators

  equally
weighted      5 components
 average



               ESI Score
                                76 Variables                                                       21 Indicators           5 Components
•Nitrogen dioxide concentration            •Particulate concentration
•Sulfur dioxide concentration              •Indoor air quality                                   Air Quality
•Ecoregions at risk                        •Threatened amphibians
•Threatened birds                          •National Biodiversity Index                          Biodiversity
•Threatened mammals                                                                                                       Environmental
•Wilderness area                           •Developed area                                           Land                   Systems
•Dissolved oxygen                          •Suspended solids
•Electrical conductivity                   •Phosphorus concentration                            Water Quality
•Surface water availability                •Groundwater availability                           Water Quantity
•Coal consumption                          •VOC emissions
•Nitrogen oxide emissions                  •Vehicles in use                                 Reducing Air Pollution
•Sulfur dioxide emissions
•Forest cover change                       •Acidification                                Reducing Ecosystem Stress
•Population growth                         •Total fertility rate                        Reducing Population Pressure        Reducing
                                           •Hazardous waste generation                       Reducing Waste &
•Ecological Footprint
•Waste recycling rates                                                                    Consumption Pressures
                                                                                                                            Stresses
•Industrial organic effluents              •Pesticide consumption
•Fertilizer consumption                    •Area under water stress                        Reducing Water Stress
•Overfishing                               •Salinization due to irrigation
•Sustainably managed forests               •Agricultural subsidies                      Natural Resources Management
•Market distortions
•Deaths from intestinal infect. diseases   •Child mortality due to respiratory
•Child mortality rate                      infections                                        Environmental Health           Reducing
•Malnutrition                              •Safe drinking water supply                     Basic Human Sustenance            Human
•Casualties due to environmental           •Environmental Hazard Exposure
disasters                                  Index                                         Exposure to Natural Disasters     Vulnerability
•Gasoline price                            •Civil and political liberties
•Corruption                                •Sustainable development data gaps
•Government effectiveness                  •International environmental engagement
•Protected land area                       •Environmental knowledge creation              Environmental Governance
•Environmental governance                  •Democratic institutions
•Strength of rule of law                   •Local Agenda 21 initiatives
                                                                                                                            Social and
•Energy efficiency                         •Renewable energy production                       Energy Efficiency            Institutional
•Corporate sustainability (Dow Jones)
•Corporate sustainability (Innovest)
                                           •Private sector environmental innovation
                                           •Participation in Responsible Care Program    Private Sector Responsiveness
                                                                                                                             Capacity
•ISO 14001 certified companies
•Innovation capacity                       •University enrollment
•Digital Access Index                      •Research scientists                            Science and Technology
•Female primary education
•Intergovernmental environmental           •Participation in intl. environmental         Participation in International
activities                                 agreements
•Role in intl. environmental aid                                                             Collaborative Efforts
                                                                                                                              Global
•Greenhouse gas emissions / GDP            •Greenhouse gas emissions / capita             Greenhouse Gas Emissions
•Transboundary sulfur dioxide              •Polluting-goods imports
                                                                                                                           Stewardship
                                                                                           Reducing Transboundary
spillovers
                                                                                           Environmental Pressures
Moderately impacted  Cluster Analysis
environmental systems;
moderate stresses and
human vulnerability; low
social & institutional
capacity and global
stewardship

Highly impacted
environmental systems;
moderate stresses,
human vulnerability,
social & institutional
capacity, and global
stewardship

Moderately impacted        Highly impacted              Low impacts on
environmental systems;     environmental systems;       environmental systems;
moderate stresses; high    high stresses; low human     moderate stresses; low
human vulnerability; low   vulnerability; high social   human vulnerability; high
social & institutional     & institutional capacity;    social & institutional
capacity; high global      moderate global              capacity; moderate global
stewardship                stewardship                  stewardship
ESI Scores for Asia & the Pacific
 Country/Region   Country/Region
     Name             Name
                 Per Capita Income and Pop Density
                      Don’t Predict ESI Scores

                                                                                        New Zealand                                         Australia                New Zealand

          60.0                                                                                  Australia                 60.0
                                                                                              Japan                                                                                                            Japan

                                           Papua New Guinea
                                                                         Malaysia
                           Bhutan                        Armenia


                                                                                                                                        Mongolia
          50.0                                                                                                            50.0                          Kazakhstan                                            Sri Lanka
ESI2005




                                                                                                                ESI2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                               India

                                                                                     South Korea                                                                                                                      South Korea


                                           Pakistan
          40.0          Tajikistan                             China                                                      40.0                                                      Tajikistan     China



                                      Uzbekistan                                                                                                                                          Uzbekistan
                                                              Turkmenistan                  Taiwan, Prov of China                                              Turkmenistan



          30.0                       North Korea                                                                          30.0                                                                          North Korea




                 7.00                       8.00                 9.00               10.00                   11.00                0.00     1.00          2.00         3.00          4.00          5.00         6.00          7.00
                                             Log of GDP per capita (2005)                                                                          Log of Population Density (2005)
    Lessons from ESI Analysis
• There are 9 Asian countries in the top
  third of all countries, 9 score in the middle
  third, and 11 score in the bottom third
• No matter what the income level or
  population density, each country has
  room for improvement
• South Korea can learn much from Japan in
  terms of energy/resource efficiency,
  private sector responsiveness, and
  participation in global environmental
  governance
            EPI Approach
• Focuses on measurable outcomes in six
  core policy areas for 133 countries
• Employs a proximity-to-target approach
• Targets are identified through
  international consensus or expert opinion
• Seeks to answer the question: How close
  is a country to globally agreed upon
  environmental policy objectives?
EPI Framework
EPI Scores UNESCAP Members
    /Region      /Region
                                                 EPI vs. Income and
                                                 Population Density
      90.00                                                                New Zealand               90.00                            New Zealand


                                                            Malaysia                                                                                 Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                    Japan
                                                                                                                       Australia
      80.00                                                                                          80.00
                                                                                                                                                                South Korea



                                              Philippines                                                                                                          Philippines
      70.00                                                                                          70.00
EPI




                                                                                               EPI
                                                       Kazakhstan

                     Nepal
      60.00                                                                                          60.00


                                                Turkmenistan

      50.00                                                                                          50.00          Mongolia
                                      India                                                                                                                          India

                                                                                                                                                                Bangladesh
                             Bangladesh                                  R Sq Linear = 0.714
                                                                                                                                                                Pakistan
      40.00                    Pakistan                                                              40.00


              7.00             8.00               9.00                 10.00         11.00                   0.00    1.00      2.00   3.00    4.00      5.00       6.00       7.00
                         Log of GDP per capita (2005)                                                                Log of Population Density (2005)
                       Environmental Health
            Indoor Air Pollution                                       Mortality ages 1-4
 Target: 0% of households using solid fuels                 Target: 0 deaths per 1,000 pop aged 1-4
East Asia and the Pacific                                East Asia and the Pacific
                                                              Asia and the Pacific                              Target
                                                                                                               Target
                                                Target
                                                                              7
                                                                              50   6 40   5 30 4   20 3    2
                                                                                                          10       10
                 240 210 180 150 120 90   60   30   0
                                                              United States
                                                                  Australia
         Mongolia
                                                         Papua New Guinea
                                                                    Japan
         Australia
                                                                  Australia
                                                                 Indonesia
            Japan
                                                             New Zealand
                                                               Cambodia
Papua New Guinea
                                                              South Korea
                                                                Myanmar
         Malaysia
                                                                  Malaysia
                                                                  Malaysia
     South Korea
                                                             New Zealand
                                                                 Thailand
        Indonesia
                                                                 Viet Nam
                                                                Philippines
     United States
                                                              United States
                                                                      China
             Laos
                                                              South Korea
                                                                   Taiwan
    New Zealand                                                  Viet Nam
                                                                Philippines
        Cambodia                                                    China
                                                                 Indonesia
            China                                                  Japan
                                                                  Mongolia
         Myanmar                                         Papua New Guinea
                                                                 Thailand
       Philippines                                                 Taiwan
                                                                  Myanmar
         Viet Nam                                                   Laos
                                                                 Cambodia
         Thailand                                                    Laos
                                                                  Mongolia
                                                 Air Quality
                Regional Ozone                                               Urban Particulates
                          Target: 15 ppb                                            Target: 10 µg/m3
East Asia and the Pacific                             Target   East Asia and the Pacific                           Target
                     75      65   55   45   35   25      15                     250    210   170   130   90   50      10

    New Zealand                                                         Australia
         Malaysia                                                       Malaysia
Papua New Guinea                                                    United States
        Cambodia                                               Papua New Guinea
       Philippines
                                                                           Japan
         Thailand
                                                                    South Korea
             Laos
                                                                            Laos
         Viet Nam
                                                                      Philippines
          Taiwan
                                                                         Taiwan
            Japan
                                                                       Cambodia
     South Korea
                                                                        Mongolia
        Indonesia
                                                                        Viet Nam
         Myanmar
     United States                                                      Thailand

         Australia                                                         China

         Mongolia                                                       Myanmar
            China                                                      Indonesia
                             Sustainable Energy
              Energy Efficiency                                         Renewable Energy
      Target: 1,650 TJ per Million $ GDP                                            Target: 100%
East Asia and the Pacific                         Target      East Asia and the Pacific                      Target
                51,650 41,650 31,650 21,650 11,650 1,650                        0      20   40     60   80     100

        Cambodia                                                       Laos
         Myanmar                                               New Zealand
Papua New Guinea                                                  Philippines
       Philippines                                                 Viet Nam
             Laos                                          Papua New Guinea
         Viet Nam                                                  Myanmar
            Japan                                                 Cambodia
        Indonesia                                                      China
         Thailand                                                     Japan
            China                                                  Indonesia
          Taiwan                                               United States
         Australia                                                 Australia
     United States                                                  Thailand
     South Korea                                                   Malaysia
    New Zealand                                                      Taiwan

         Malaysia                                               South Korea
         Mongolia                                                  Mongolia
                         Biodiversity and Habitat
          Wilderness Protection                                        Ecoregion Protection
     Target: 90% of wild areas protected                      Target: 10% area of all biomes protected
                                                               East Asia and the Pacific                      Target
                                                   Target
   East Asia and the Pacific                                                    0.0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8      1.0
                     0   15    30   45   60   75      90
                                                                       Japan
       Cambodia
                                                                   Cambodia
    New Zealand
                                                                        Laos
            China
                                                                   Philippines
            Laos
                                                                    Malaysia
        Mongolia
                                                                    Indonesia
         Thailand

    United States
                                                                    Mongolia

        Malaysia                                                United States

          Taiwan                                                      Taiwan

           Japan                                                        China

       Philippines                                              New Zealand

        Indonesia                                                    Thailand

        Australia                                                   Australia

        Viet Nam                                                    Viet Nam
        Myanmar                                                     Myanmar
     South Korea                                                 South Korea
Papua New Guinea                                            Papua New Guinea
                                       Water Resources
        Nitrogen Concentrations                                    % of Territory Oversubscribed
                     Target: 1 mg/liter                                                   Target: 0%
East Asia and the Pacific                                       East Asia and the Pacific                               Target
                                                       Target
                                                                                     80   70   60   50   40   30   20   10   0
                10,001 8,001   6,001   4,001   2,001     1
                                                                             Laos
Papua New Guinea
                                                                          Taiwan
        Indonesia
       Philippines                                                      Indonesia

         Myanmar                                                         Malaysia

        Cambodia                                                    New Zealand

            Japan                                               Papua New Guinea

             Laos                                                        Myanmar

    New Zealand                                                        Philippines

          Taiwan                                                         Viet Nam

         Viet Nam                                                           Japan

         Thailand                                                        Thailand

     South Korea                                                     South Korea
     United States                                                       Mongolia
         Australia                                                          China
            China                                                    United States
         Mongolia                                                        Australia
        Productive Natural Resources
            Timber Harvest Rate                               Overfishing in Coastal Zone
       Target: 3% of standing forests p.a.                               Target: no overfishing
East Asia and the Pacific                                East Asia and the Pacific                    Target
                                                Target
                                                                              7   6   5   4   3   2        1
                 240 210 180 150 120 90   60   30   0
                                                                  Australia
         Mongolia
                                                         Papua New Guinea
         Australia
                                                                 Indonesia
            Japan
                                                                 Cambodia
Papua New Guinea
                                                                  Myanmar
         Malaysia
                                                                  Malaysia
     South Korea
                                                             New Zealand
        Indonesia
                                                                  Viet Nam
     United States
                                                              United States
             Laos
                                                              South Korea
    New Zealand                                                 Philippines
        Cambodia                                                     China
            China                                                    Japan
         Myanmar                                                  Thailand
       Philippines                                                 Taiwan
         Viet Nam                                                     Laos
         Thailand                                                 Mongolia
South Korea & Japan
 Lessons from the EPI Analysis
• There are 8 Asian countries in the top third of all
  countries, 12 in the middle third, and 12 in the
  bottom third
• As with the ESI, can study country profiles to
  understand how lower ranking countries can
  learn from higher ranking countries with similar
  economic, demographic and climatic situations
• One still needs to understand policy contexts: In
  Malaysia sustainable development is handled
  directly by the prime minister’s office and
  incorporated in national planning
 Part 2: Energy Efficiency
Analysis Based on ESI & EPI
           Data
                                                50000.00          Uzbekistan




Energy Efficiency ENEFFRAW per million $ GDP)   40000.00
                                                                Tajikistan
                  (Terrajoules




                                                30000.00

                                                                         Turkmenistan

                                                                Azerbaijan
                                                                               Kazakhstan

                                                20000.00
                                                                                                                 Singapore
                                                                        Armenia


                                                                    Georgia
                                                                                  Malaysia       South Korea
                                                10000.00                                                            Australia       United States

                                                                China          Thailand                           Japan
                                                                                                        Taiwan               Hong Kong
                                                                        Philippines
                                                                                                Macao

                                                                  Cambodia
                                                    0.00


                                                           $0                $10,000         $20,000        $30,000          $40,000        $50,000
                                                                                               GDPPC05
                                                                                          GDP Per Capita (2005)
                                          100.00


                                                             Cambodia
                                                   Laos                                       Macao
                                                          Sri Lanka

Sustainable Energy Score (Target = 100)
                                                                                                                               Hong Kong
                                                                   Philippines                                   Japan
                                          80.00
                                                                                                       Taiwan
                                                          Indonesia       Thailand       South Korea                                  United States
                                                                                                                   Australia


                                                           India              Malaysia
                                          60.00
             ENERGYEPI




                                                                                                                Singapore

                                                                      China




                                          40.00             Kyrgyzstan




                                          20.00            Tajikistan


                                                                          Kazakhstan


                                                            Uzbekistan
                                            0.00


                                                    $0                  $10,000           $20,000          $30,000             $40,000        $50,000

                                                                                         GDPGDPPC05 (2005)
                                                                                            Per Capita
      Energy Efficiency* Measures
 • Utilized trend data collected for the ESI & EPI
   and compiled trends for selected indicators
 • A “good news-bad news” story: Energy
   efficiency (TJ per GDP) is increasing in most
   countries, but overall energy consumption is up,
   fueled by economic growth:
      – Growth in manufacturing
      – Growth in mobility (transportation sector)
      – Growth in household energy use (electric appliances)

* Note: We are actually measuring energy intensities here – so for the following
three charts declining trends are good for the environment.
                                       Declining Energy Efficiency (1994-2003)

                     30000


                     25000
                                                                                        Mongolia
TJ per million GDP




                                                                                        Malaysia
                     20000
                                                                                        Thailand
                                                                                        Indonesia
                     15000
                                                                                        Vietnam
                                                                                        Laos
                     10000
                                                                                        Philippines
                                                                                        Papua New Guinea
                     5000


                        0
                             1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


    Sources: For energy consumption data: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual
    2003, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/wecbtu.html (Table E.1), Posted July 2005; World Bank, World
    Development Indicators 2005, GDP in PPP, http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/.
                                        Growing Energy Efficiency (1994-2003)

                       20000

                       18000

                       16000
                                                                                               Singapore
TJ per million $ GDP




                       14000                                                                   New Zealand
                       12000                                                                   Korea, South
                                                                                               United States
                       10000
                                                                                               Australia
                       8000                                                                    China
                       6000                                                                    Japan
                                                                                               Cambodia
                       4000

                       2000

                          0
                               1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


     Sources: For energy consumption data: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual
     2003, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/wecbtu.html (Table E.1), Posted July 2005; World Bank, World
     Development Indicators 2005, GDP in PPP, http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/.
          Percent Changes in Energy Intensity Relative to 1994
                               Baseline                   Vietnam
                                                           Thailand
180
                                                           Indonesia
160                                                        Papua New Guinea
140                                                        Malaysia
120                                                        Mongolia
100                                                        Philippines
                                                           Japan
80
                                                           Singapore
60                                                         Australia
40                                                         Korea, South
20                                                         New Zealand
                                                           United States
 0
                                                           China
      1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
                                                           Cambodia
              Energy Efficiency per GDP per capita (1994-2003)

25
                                                                    Australia
                                                                    Cambodia
20                                                                  China
                                                                    Indonesia
                                                                    Japan
15                                                  Laos            Laos
                                                                    Malaysia
                                                Vietnam
                                                                    New Zealand
10                                                                  Papua New Guinea
                                               Indonesia
                                                                    Philippines
                                                           China
                                                                    Korea, South
5                                                          PNG      Singapore
                                                      Philippines   Thailand
                                                                    United States
0
                                                                    Vietnam
     1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
       Primary Energy Consumption in TJ (1994-2003)
                 Low Energy Consuming Countries
1000000000
 900000000             140% Growth over
                          the period              Vietnam
 800000000                                        Myanmar
 700000000
                                                  Mongolia
 600000000
                                                  Papua New Guinea
 500000000
                                                  Afghanistan
 400000000
 300000000                                        Bhutan
 200000000                                        Laos
 100000000                                        Cambodia
         0
          94
          95
          96
          97
          98
          99
          00
          01
          02
          03
        19
        19
        19
        19
        19
        19
        20
        20
        20
        20
        Total Primary Energy Consumption in TJ (1994-2003)
                   High Energy Consuming Countries
1E+11                                                      United States
9E+10
                                         10% Growth over   China
8E+10                                       the period
7E+10                                                      Japan
6E+10                                    33% Growth over
                                                           Korea, South
5E+10                                       the period     Australia
4E+10                                                      Indonesia
3E+10                                                      Thailand
2E+10
                                                           Malaysia
1E+10
    0                                                      Singapore
                                                           Philippines
     94

     95

     96

     97

     98

     99

     00

     01

     02

     03
                                                           New Zealand
   19

   19

   19

   19

   19

   19

   20

   20

   20

   20
                  Total Growth in Energy Consumption in Terrajoules (1994-2003)

2.5E+11


2.4E+11


2.3E+11
                                                            19% Growth
2.2E+11                                                    over the period
                                                                                  UNESCAP TOTAL
2.1E+11


 2E+11


1.9E+11


1.8E+11
          1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003
                     Vehicles per Sq. Km. of Populated Land Area* (1990-1998)
                                    High Density Countries
250


                                                                   Japan
200                                                                                  Japan
                                                                                     South Korea
                                                                                     United States
150
                                                                                     Australia
                                                                 South Korea         Brunei Darussalam
                                                                                     Georgia
100
                                                                                     Thailand
                                                                                     Sri Lanka
50                                                                                   Philippines



 0
       1990   1991    1992   1993   1994    1995   1996   1997    1998     1999

      * Land populated at 5 persons per sq. km. and above in the year 2000.
      Sources: For vehicles data: United Nations Statistics Division Common Database (UNCDB),
      http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/cdb_help/cdb_quick_start.asp; For populated land area data: Center for
      International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Gridded Population of the World version 3
      (GPW).
                   Vehicles per Sq. Km. of Populated Land Area* (1990-1998)
                                        Low Density Countries
 5
                                                                   Indonesia
4.5

 4
                                                                                       Indonesia
3.5                                                                      India         India
                                                                                       Pakistan
 3
                                                                                       Bangladesh
2.5                                                                      China         China
                                                                                       Malaysia
 2                                                                                Malaysia
                                                                                        Myanmar
1.5                                                                                    Nepal
                                                                                       Cambodia
 1

0.5

 0
        1990    1991    1992     1993    1994    1995    1996     1997     1998

      * Land populated at 5 persons per sq. km. and above in the year 2000.
      Sources: For vehicles data: United Nations Statistics Division Common Database (UNCDB),
      http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/cdb_help/cdb_quick_start.asp; For populated land area data: Center for
      International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Gridded Population of the World version 3
      (GPW).
                                                       Transportation Sector Energy Efficiency

                                         4.5
Metric Tons Oil Equivalent Per Vehicle



                                          4

                                         3.5

                                          3

                                         2.5                                                                    1990
                                          2                                                                     2000

                                         1.5

                                          1

                                         0.5

                                          0
                                               China    Indonesia   Japan   Korea,   Thailand    United
                                                                             Rep                 States

              Sources: For vehicles data: United Nations Statistics Division Common Database (UNCDB),
              http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/cdb_help/cdb_quick_start.asp; For metric tons of oil equivalent (mtoe)
              consumed in the road transportation sector: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2001.Energy Balances
              of OECD Countries (2001 Edition) and Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries (2001 Edition).
              Electronic database available online at: http://data.iea.org/ieastore/default.asp. Paris: IEA
                Conclusions
• There are significant differences in the potential
  for long-term sustainability and current
  environmental performance among Asian
  nations
• Long-term sustainability is a matter of capacity
  and political will
• Gains in energy efficiency have largely been
  outstripped by economic growth and by changes
  in consumption preferences (e.g. private rather
  than public transportation)
• Asian countries need to carefully consider the
  environmental implications of their
  development policies
    Thank you very much!

   For more information please visit
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/esi/