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Missouri 2008 Election Results - PowerPoint

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Missouri 2008 Election Results - PowerPoint Powered By Docstoc
					                       U.S. National Elections, 2008
                                David King
                           September 22, 2008




1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.


2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress

4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration
  1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.

       Consider: election districts are “single member” districts.

       Consider: States in the Electoral College are “winner take all.”

       Remember: Whomever gets the most votes (a plurality) wins.


Imagine an election within a district with the following outcomes:

       Mackerson           9%
       Aquino             18%        Patterson 48%         Party 1
       Patterson          21%
       Hartpense          11%
       Grovner            27%        Grovner     52%       Party 2
       Philips            14%
     2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes
                           * Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong

                           * Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3)


McCain Strong              McCain Weak          McCain Lean                Obama Lean          Obama Weak                Obama Strong

  Texas (34)               Tennessee (11)        Florida (27)             Pennsylvania (21)    New Jersey (15)           California (55)
    Georgia (15)              South Carolina          Ohio (20)                Michigan (17)        Washington              New York (31)
    Arizona (10)                    (8)            North Carolina             Wisconsin (10)            (11)                  Illinois (21)
    Alabama (9)               West Virginia              (15)                  Colorado (9)       Minnesota (10)             Massachusetts
    Louisiana (9)                   (5)             Virginia (13)             New Mexico (5)         Iowa (7)                      (12)
    Kentucky (8)               North Dakota         Indiana (11)                                    Oregon (7)               Maryland (10)
    Oklahoma (7)                    (3)             Missouri (11)                                                           Connecticut (7)
    Arkansas (6)                                     Nevada (5)                                                                Hawaii (4)
     Kansas (6)                                   New Hampshire                                                                Maine (4)
   Mississippi (6)                                        (4)                                                                 Rhode Island
    Nebraska (5)                                    Montana (3)                                                                     (4)
       Utah (5)                                                                                                               Delaware (3)
      Idaho (4)                                                                                                                  DC (3)
     Alaska (3)                                                                                                               Vermont (3)
    South Dakota
         (3)
    Wyoming (3)

     133                        27                  109                           62                 50                       157

                     160                                            171                                            207

                                269                                                                 269

                                                                    538


                                                                          McCain       Obama


                                               McCain Best Case             331         207
                                                Current Status              269         269
                                               Obama Best Case              160         378


                      http://wiki.abulsme.com/2008_Electoral_College_Prediction
2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

       * Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong

      * Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3)




                    http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama – InTrade price, September 22, 2008
3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress
Democrats Control the 111th Congress
– InTrade price, September 22, 2008
                  4. Obama – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle




Denis McDonough        Anthony Lake      Susan Rice
                                                              Sarah Sewell




                     Richard Danzig    Samantha Power
     4. McCain – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle




          Randy Scheunemann              Robert Kagan




Stephen E. Biegun                                   Richard S. Williamson
                         James Woolsey
 Keep in mind:


     The election results will likely have a significant effect on the
     “mood” around policy – and will affect operations in Iraq,
     Afghanistan, and Darfur

     An Obama administration will be more “internationalist,” and
     A McCain administration more “nationalist” and “realist.”

      The U.S. Congress will be controlled by Democrats, so expect
      a Strong opposition if McCain wins, and Coordination if Obama wins


Looming over everything – the financial crisis on
our horizon, and the costs of campaign promises.
                       U.S. National Elections, 2008
                                David King
                           September 22, 2008




1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.


2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress

4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration

				
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