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2008 Presidential Election County Idaho

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					     The United States
Presidential Election Process




                  Objectives: To develop
                  a better understanding
                  of the Electoral College
                  No First 5- Get out
                  Notes
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
  Does the popular vote elect the
       president? NOPE!!!
• So who does?
  – Electors choose the president and states
    each have their own way of choosing electors
• Huh? What about voting?
During the General Election when
 casting a ballot for a particular
  candidate, voters are actually
   voting for a slate of electors.
These electors in turn will vote for
 that candidate in the Electoral
              College
The Electoral College was devised
          for 3 reasons
1.   The framers of the Constitution feared
     direct democracy. Hamilton and the other
     founders did not trust the population to
     make the right choice.

     ―election should be made by men most
     capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to
     the station‖ – James Madison
The Electoral College was devised
          for 3 reasons


2.   The founding fathers wanted to protect
     the interests of smaller states and rural
     areas
The Electoral College was devised
          for 3 reasons

3.   The Electoral College helps dilute the
     effect of votes from densely populated
     centers which may steer away from
     the concerns of the rest of the country
Presidential Electors are nominated by their state
political parties in the summer before the Popular
Vote on Election Day


• In some states, the Electors are nominated
  in primaries the same way that other
  candidates are nominated
• Other states nominate Electors in party
  conventions
            ELECTORS
The number of electors for each state is
 based on

# of senators +   # of representatives



All states have a minimum of 3 electoral
  votes
The party that wins a state elects
   its entire slate of Electors.

       This is known as a

    Winner Take-all System

(2 exceptions: Maine & Nebraska)
 The Presidential Electors meet in
  their respective state capitols in
 December, 41 days following the
 election, at which time they cast
   their electoral votes. Thus the
"electoral college" never meets as
          one national body.
Candidates must receive
    a majority of the
  electoral vote to be
declared the President-
elect or Vice-President-
          elect
        ELECTORAL VOTES
435 U.S. Representatives
+
100 U.S. Senators

= 535 electoral votes

+ 3 electoral votes (Washington D.C.)
-----------------------------------------
= 538 total electoral votes
    If no candidate for President
   receives an absolute electoral
  majority 270 votes out of the 538
     possible, then the House of
 Representatives is required to go
into session immediately to vote for
              President.

(an even split would be 269 votes)
The House votes en-bloc by state
 for this purpose that is, one vote
per state, which is determined by
    the majority decision of the
     delegation from that state.

if a state delegation is evenly split
     that state is considered as
             abstaining.
  This vote would be repeated if
  necessary until one candidate
 receives the votes of more than
half the state delegations—at least
 26 state votes, given the current
number, 50, of states in the union.
  If no candidate for Vice President receives
 an absolute majority of electoral votes, then
the United States Senate must do the same,
  with the top two vote getters for that office
     as candidates. The Senate votes in the
normal manner in this case, not by States. It
 is unclear if the sitting Vice President would
be entitled to cast his usual tie-breaking vote
  if the Senate should be evenly split on the
                       matter
  If the House of Representatives has not
chosen a winner in time for the inauguration
(noon on January 20), then the Constitution
 of the United States specifies that the new
 Vice President becomes Acting President
 until the House selects a President. If the
 winner of the Vice Presidential election is
  not known by then either, then under the
  Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the
 Speaker of the House of Representatives
  would become Acting President until the
  House selects a President or the Senate
           selects a Vice President
The People‘s Choice
      • Is the President of the United
        States ―the people‘s choice?‖
      • In 2000, Al Gore received
        50,999,897 votes to George W.
        Bush‘s 50,456,002.
      • Nixon won the presidency in 1968
        with 43.4% of the popular vote.
      • Bill Clinton won in 1992 with only
        43% of the total votes.
      • Woodrow Wilson won in 1912 with
        41.9%.
      • Abraham Lincoln won in 1860 with
        39.8% of the popular vote—the all-
        time winner in the ―least popular
        successful candidates‖
        sweepstakes.
Who Are the Electors?
       •   Though there may be party and state rules
           that ―bind‖ electors to cast their ballots for
           the candidate with the most votes in that
           state, the Constitution appears to provide no
           bar to electors who wish to vote their
           conscience, rather than the party line.
       •   Indeed, a number of recent electors have
           case their votes for candidates other than
           the one they were ―pledged‖ to support.
       •   For example, in 1976 one of the Washington
           state Republican electors pledged to Gerald
           Ford actually cast his vote for Ronald
           Reagan. Had only 5,559 voters in Ohio and
           3,687 voters in Hawaii voted for Ford instead
           of Carter, with the one electoral vote ―switch‖
           from Ford to Reagan, For would have
           finished with 269 electoral votes to Carter‘s
           268 and Reagan‘s 1. The House would have
           decided the election.
       •   In 1988, one of the electors pledged to
           Democrat Michael Dukakis cast his vote for
           Dukakis‘ running mate Lloyd Bentsen.
        November 5, 2009
• Objectives: To develop a better
  understanding of the Electoral College
• Question: How many electoral votes does
  it take to win the presidency? What
  happens if it is a tie?
• Agenda: Notes then Presidential Karaoke
        How are electors
           chosen?
•
    Each party determines its own
    method for selecting electors. In the
    Democratic Party, each congressional
    nominee and each US Senate
    nominee (determined by the last two
    elections) designates one elector
    whose names are filed with
    Secretary of State by October 1 of
    the presidential election year.
–
    In the Republican Party, the nominees for
    governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer,
    controller, attorney general, secretary of state,
    United States Senators (again, going back two
    elections) the Senate and Assembly Republican
    leaders, all elected officers of the Republican
    state central committee, the national
    committeeman and committeewoman, the
    president of the Republican county central
    committee chairmen's organization and the
    chair or president of each Republican volunteer
    organization officially recognized by the state
    central committee act as electors.
A faithless elector is one who casts an
 electoral vote for someone other than
 whom they have pledged to elect. On
158 occasions, electors have cast their
    votes for president in a different
  manner than that prescribed by the
legislature of the state they represent.
  So what do you need to win?
• There are a total of 538 electoral votes.
• A president must get 270 to be declared
  the winner.
• If no one gets that number, the House of
  Representatives gets to pick the president
  from the top 3 vote-getters.
• Then the Senate would choose the Vice-
  President from the top 2 vote-getters
2000 - Barbara Lett-Simmons (Democrat, District of Columbia)
In the most recent act of Elector abstention, Barbara Lett-Simmons, a
Democratic Elector from the District of Columbia, did not cast her vote
for Al Gore as expected. Her abstention was meant to protest the lack of
Congressional representation for Washington, DC.
Lett-Simmons was the first Elector to abstain from voting since 1832.
Her abstention did not affect the outcome of the election.
1988 - Margaret Leach (Democrat, West Virginia)
Margaret Leach, a nurse from Huntington, WV, was pledged to the
Democratic Party. During the Electoral College process, Leach learned
that members of the Electoral College were not required to vote for the
candidates they were pledged to.
Upon learning this, she decided to draw more attention to the situation by
switching her votes for President and Vice President. She cast her
Presidential vote for Lloyd Bentsen, the Democratic Vice Presidential
candidate, and cast her Vice Presidential vote for Michael Dukakis, the
Democratic Presidential candidate.
Leach tried to convince other Electors to join her, but hers remained the
only unexpected vote.
         Resolving Deadlocks in the House:
                One State-One Vote
• How should state
  delegations decide to cast
  their single vote?
• The opportunities for
  mischief are great. One can
  easily imagine the kinds of
  promises that would be
  made to potential switchers,
  given the stakes of the
  decision.
• The most controversial
  elections:
                                 Photograph of John Quincy Adams. 1848.
                     1800
• 1800-The election in 1800 went to the House of
  Representatives after a voting mix-up left
  Thomas Jefferson and his vice presidential
  running mate Aaron Burr with the same number
  of electoral votes. It took the House 36 ballots
  and six days to declare Jefferson the winner.

  Congress fixed this in 1804 with the 12th
  Amendment, which required that the president
  and vice president be voted on separately.
                             1824
• 1824: Despite losing the popular and electoral votes, John Quincy
  Adams became president. The election was known to some as the
  ―Corrupt Bargain‖ after Adams named Henry Clay, the speaker of
  the House of Representatives—and the man who convinced
  Congress to elect Adams—to serve as secretary of state.
  Adams faced Andrew Jackson, who won the popular vote and the
  most electoral votes, but not the majority. So, as in 1800, the House
  of Representatives had to decide the election. Clay had been among
  the presidential candidates, but had the fewest electoral votes.
  Before the House had a chance to consider the matter, though, ―a
  Philadelphia newspaper published an anonymous letter claiming
  that Clay would support Adams in return for an appointment as
  Secretary of State.
                                      1876
•   Before the 2000 election, there was the 1876 election between Rutherford B. Hayes
    and Samuel Tilden, governors of Ohio and New York, respectively. Although both
    parties accused each other of corruption during the campaign, it was after the votes
    had been cast that the shenanigans really started.
    Hayes went to bed Election Night believing he had lost. When the votes had been
    counted, Tilden had won the popular vote and had a 184-165 lead in the electoral
    vote. However, 20 electoral votes in South Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Louisiana
    were contested; Hayes‘ supporters sent messages to Republican leaders in the
    southern states saying, ―With your state sure for Hayes, he is elected. Hold your
    state.‖
    Both sides were thought to have engaged in fraud, and the weeks passed without a
    clear winner.
    In December, Congress stepped in, forming a 15-member committee to investigate
    the matter. In February, the commission voted 8-7 along party lines to give Florida‘s
    electoral votes for Hayes; it would do the same for Louisiana, Oregon, and South
    Carolina, giving Hayes the required 185 electoral votes to win the presidency.
    Republicans made backroom deals with Democrats to ensure Hayes‘ victory,
    promising to appoint Democrats to cabinet positions and end reconstruction efforts.
    On March 2—three days before inauguration day—Hayes was officially declared the
    winner.
    ―On Monday, March 5, 1877, Rutherford B. Hayes was sworn in publicly as president
    of the United States
                      1888
• Grover Cleveland, who was running for a
  second term against Benjamin Harrison, had
  93,000 more popular votes after the election in
  1888. Though he lost in the Electoral College
  233 to 168, according to Harper‘s Weekly.

  New York and Indiana, which had supported
  Cleveland in his first election, swung to favor
  Harrison, who won the election
                               2000
• The election in 2000 ―resulted in the most bizarre vote count in
  American history,‖ said the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers.
  Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral
  College.
  Though Gore conceded the race the day after Election Day, he
  rescinded his concession after learning that Florida was too close to
  call
• In Palm Beach County, an unexpectedly large vote for third-party
  candidates leads to questions about the ‗butterfly ballot‘ there,
  where the names of candidates are placed on the left and right
  columns of a page and a series of punch holes are found in a center
  column. Large numbers of disqualified ballots, or ballots where no
  vote is registered for president, are found in other counties
• An initial recount in Florida showed Bush ahead by about 300 votes,
  of almost 6 million in total. As some counties there started hand
  recounts, Bush went to court to stop them.
  Florida‘s Supreme Court said the hand-counts could continue, but
  set a deadline some county officials did not think they could meet.
  The U.S. Supreme Court eventually ruled that the state Supreme
  Court had overstepped its authority by setting new standards to
  determine who won the election.

• The court‘s decision was issued on Dec. 12. The Electoral College
  met the next week, and Bush received 271 votes to Gore‘s 266.
          •   National public opinion has long supported the abolition of the
              entire Electoral College, yet nothing changes.
Why No    •   Why? Two reasons: 1) The zeal of small states to protect their
              power within the system and 2) opposition from minorities who
Change?   •
              believe their power will be diluted.
              In 1969, the House voted 338-70 for a constitutional amendment
              establishing national direct election by popular vote.
          •   But in the Senate, southern and small state conservatives aligned
              to filibuster the proposal because they believed that reform would
              destroy the special influence the electoral college gives their
              constituencies.
          •   Ten years later, the Senate fell fifteen votes short of the necessary
              2/3 when Democrats from New York, New Jersey, and Maryland
              led the opposition after black and Jewish organizations claimed
              that their supposed pivotal power in big swing states would be
              threatened.
          •   Even if congress were to pass such an amendment, consider the
              difficulty of obtaining ratification by ¾ of the states. It only takes 13
              states to keep an amendment from being enacted. There are 14
              states that reap dramatic benefit from the senatorial bonus:
              Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New
              Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South
              Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. And this list does
              not include the additional 14 states whose percentage of the
              electoral vote is higher than their percentage of the national
              population. What incentive do these states have to ratify a
              constitutional amendment?
          •   Perhaps the biggest lesson from Bush v. Gore (2000) is that the
              current presidential election system will almost certainly remain in
              tact. The American people‘s apathy toward and acceptance of that
              result demonstrates how difficult it would be to obtain a public
              groundswell for change.
      The Impermeable Article V?
• ―The Congress, whenever two
  thirds of both Houses shall deem it
  necessary, shall propose
  Amendments to this Constitution,
  or, on the Application of the
  Legislatures of two thirds of the
  several States, shall call a
  Convention for proposing
  Amendments, which, in either Case,
  shall be valid to all Intents and
  Purposes, as Part of this
  Constitution, when ratified by the
  Legislatures of three fourths of the
  several States, or by Conventions in
  three fourths thereof, as the one or
  the other Mode of Ratification may
  be proposed by the Congress; …
  [although] no State, without its
  Consent, shall be deprived of its
  equal Suffrage in the Senate.‖
    Alternatives to a Constitutional Amendment




•   Article II, section 1 empowers each state to ―appoint‖ its presidential electors in ―such Manner as
    the Legislature thereof may direct.‖ Article I, section 10 authorizes Congress to consent to ―any
    agreement or compact‖ by one state with another.
•   Large states could compact with one another to appoint electors who will be directed to cast
    their votes for the person who wins the greatest number of votes in the overall national election.
    The compact would not come into effect until enough states (which could be as few as the 11
    largest states) to constitute a majority of the electoral votes had agreed to the compact. Upon
    Congress agreeing to the compact, the United States would in effect move to a popularly elected
    presidency.
•   Congress could call for a new constitutional convention after 2/3 of the states petition Congress
    for such a move. The convention‘s new constitution would only take effect if ratified in a national
    referendum.
•   In the end, it is the American people that will determine whether such proposals are possible.
    The advent of new technologies, particularly the internet, have made it possible for relatively
    easy collective action. As a result, electronic petitions and websites have been launched to
    change the presidential election process. Will these work?
           YOUR VOTE COUNTS
•   Did you know:

•   That several of our states, including California, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and
    Washington, became states by just ONE vote?
•   That in 1948, Lyndon B. Johnson, our 36th president, became a U.S. senator
    by a ONE vote margin?
•   And that same year, if Thomas E. Dewey had gotten ONE vote more per
    precinct in Ohio and California, the presidential election would have been
    thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives, where Dewey enjoyed more
    support than his rival -- incumbent Harry S. Truman? In fact, Dewey was
    expected to win the general election by a landslide, so most Republicans
    stayed home. Only 51.5 percent of the electorate voted in 1948, and Truman
    defeated Dewey.
•   Not convinced?
•   In the 1960 presidential election, ONE additional vote per precinct in Illinois,
    Missouri, New Jersey and Texas would have denied John F. Kennedy the
    presidency and put Richard M. Nixon in office eight years earlier.
•   In recent years, the outcomes of many state and congressional races have
    been reversed as recounts have shifted a handful of votes from one candidate
    to another.
The 2008 Presidential Election
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