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No. 318.doc - COPAL COCOA Info

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									              COPAL COCOA Info
              A Weekly Newsletter of Cocoa Producers' Alliance
                Issue No. 318
In-House Cocoa Newsletter                                                       12th – 16th January 2009
 Cocoa Producers' Alliance




                                UP-COMING EVENTS                                 IN THIS ISSUE
                                                                                INSIDE THIS ISSE:

                                                                           ICCO DAILY COCOA PRICES
                                                                           LONDON (LIFFE) FUTURES
                                                                            MARKET UPDATE
                                                                           NEW YORK (ICE) FUTURES
                                                                            MARKET UPDATE
                                                                           CMA SPOT COCOA BEAN
                                                                            PRICES
                                                                           FROM THE NEWS MEDIA
                                                                           TIT BITS

                                Do your health a favour, drink Cocoa everyday
                                          ‘It’s nature’s miracle food’
In the News (from Newspapers worldwide)
Health and Nutrition                                    Business & Economy
 Chocolate: A food we hold sacred                         Commodities Roll Yield in 2009
 Chocolate is good for you, and the world                 The invincibles – recession proof food and healthy
 The perks of chocolate                                    eating
                                                           MARKET TALK: ICE Cocoa Pares Losses In
                                                            Consolidative Trade.
Production & Quality
                                                           PNG govt faces drop in income if commodity prices
 Ivory Coast plan to boost cocoa quality                   remain low.
 Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Oct 1 To Jan 11 Seen -        Cote d'Ivoire: Government Fixes new Purchasing
    27% On Yr                                               Price for Coffee, Cocoa.
 Indonesia's Sulawesi Cocoa Bean Exports Fall 10          Ivory Coast's cocoa industry faces a bleak future
    Pct in 2008                                            Callebaut Says Crisis Won't Kill Chocolate Growth
 Cameroon Exports 116,006 Tons Cocoa Beans Aug-           Cocoa output to fall below use - Industry Group
    Dec –NCCB
                                                        Labour Issues
The Market
 MARKET TALK: ICE Cocoa Drops On Profit-               Research and Development
    Taking; Holds Support.                               Consortium Using 454, Illumina Sequencers to
 SOFTS-Fund sales pummel sugar, coffee and cocoa           Decode Cacao Genome
 SOFTS-Cocoa stumbles late as economic gloom            Take two Mars bars and relax
    bites
 ICE Cocoa Slips to One-Month Low, Coffee Mixed        Environmental Issues
 Foods and Softs Outlook for January 16, 2009           World Cocoa Foundation              Sets   Guiding
                                                            Sustainability Principles
Processing & Manufacturing
 European 4Q Cocoa Grind Up 0.1% On Year At            Promotion
    349,351 Tons.
 UPDATE 1-U.S. Q4 2008 cocoa grind up 1.85 pct         Others
    from year ago
 Barry Callebaut Opens Brand New 100,000 Ton
    Chocolate Factory in Mexico


ICCO Daily Cocoa Prices
                       ICCO daily price      ICCO daily price       London futures        New York futures
                         (SDR/tonne)           ($US/tonne)             (£/tonne)            ($US/tonne)
   12th January            1679.56               2555.70                1753.33                2520.33
      th
   13 January              1666.93               2525.52                1773.33                2483.33
   14th January            1624.14               2455.13                1727.33                2392.33
      th
   15 January              1609.54               2432.08                1714.67                2369.67
   16th January            1662.26               2517.46                1745.33                2470.33
      Average              1648.00               2497.00                1743.00                2447.00




                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                       2
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
          International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE)
             London Futures Market – Summary of Trading Activities
                                                  (£ per tonne)



Monday                12th January             2009
Month                      Opening Trans           Settle         Change   Daily High   Daily Low   Volume
    Mar 2009                   1807                1775            -33        1822        1725      16,063
    May 2009                   1760                1745            -19        1775        1696S     5,008
    Jul 2009                   1741                1740            -11       1758S        1690       992
    Sep 2009                   1695                1733             -2       1745         1680       609
    Dec 2009                   1693                1679             -2        1693        1659S      383
    Mar 2010                   1653                1643             -6        1660        1641       390
    May 2010                                       1652             -8                                0
     Jul 2010                                      1665             -8                                0
    Sep 2010                                       1677             -8                                0
    Dec 2010                                       1677             -8                                0
Average/Totals                                     1699                                             23,445



Tuesday               13th January             2009
Month                      Opening Trans           Settle         Change      High        Low       Volume
    Mar 2009                   1767                1798             23        1812        1746      9,680
    May 2009                   1740                1764             19        1775        1725S     3,335
    Jul 2009                   1740                1758             18        1765        1725S      846
    Sep 2009                   1730                1745             12       1761S        1719S      801
    Dec 2009                   1666                1690             11        1702        1666S      253
    Mar 2010                   1639                1649             6        1672S        1634       480
    May 2010                                       1655             3                                 0
     Jul 2010                                      1668             3                                 0
    Sep 2010                                       1680             3                                 0
    Dec 2010                                       1680             3                                 0
Average/Totals                                     1709                                             15,395



Wednesday             14th January             2009
Month                      Opening Trans           Settle         Change      High        Low       Volume
    Mar 2009                   1812                1751            -47        1854        1749      10,317
    May 2009                   1778                1721            -43       1812S        1720      2,741
    Jul 2009                   1770                1710            -48       1796S        1710      1,385
    Sep 2009                   1778                1700            -45        1780        1694       140
    Dec 2009                   1685                1650            -40        1685        1675        21
    Mar 2010                   1690                1600            -49        1690        1625        56
    May 2010                                       1606            -49                                0
     Jul 2010                                      1619            -49                                0
    Sep 2010                                       1631            -49                                0
    Dec 2010                                       1631            -49                                0
Average/Totals                                     1662                                             14,660




                 COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                3
                     P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                            Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Thursday               15th January            2009
Month                      Opening Trans           Settle       Change        High        Low       Volume
    Mar 2009                   1642                1696           51          1698        1635      7,747
    May 2009                   1641                1690           49          1691        1633      1,419
     Jul 2009                  1645                1700           50          1701        1642S     1,166
    Sep 2009                   1630                1678           40         1649S        1630        74
    Dec 2009                   1622                1648           39         1622        1620S        60
    Mar 2010                   1616                1644           40          1642        1616       111
    May 2010                                       1652           39                                  0
     Jul 2010                                      1652           39                                  0
    Sep 2010                                       1652           39                                  0
    Dec 2010                                       1652                                               0
Average/Totals                                     1666                                             10,577



Friday                 16th January            2009
Month                      Opening Trans           Settle       Change        High        Low       Volume
    Mar 2009                   1740                1766           30          1780        1737      5,297
    May 2009                   1713                1740           30          1753        1711      4,079
     Jul 2009                  1702                1730           32          1743        1700S     1,018
    Sep 2009                   1700                1720           30          1732        1697S      589
    Dec 2009                   1663                1666           34          1667        1659S      126
    Mar 2010                   1635                1636           36          1640        1634       316
    May 2010                                       1641           36                                  0
     Jul 2010                                      1654           36                                  0
    Sep 2010                                       1666           36                                  0
    Dec 2010                                       1666           36                                  0
Average/Totals                                     1689                                             11425



Average for the week
                                                   1689                                             15100
                                                                                                    75,502




                 COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                4
                     P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                            Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
                           New York Board of Trade
            New York Futures Market – Summary of Trading Activities
                                                ($ per tonne)



Monday                5th January             2009
Month                          Open              Price       Change        High        Low          Volume
Mar-09                         2585              2506           -79       2585         2450         14,979
May-09                         2569              2507           -72       2569         2450         4,206
Jul-09                         2537              2496           -74       2545         2444         1,353
Sep-09                         2514              2474           -72       2523         2430          294
Dec-09                         2472              2439           -72       2480         2400          467
Mar-10                         2438              2413           -74       2442         2394          70
May-10                           0               2406           -70         0            0            1
Jul-10                           0               2402           -74         0            0            0
Sep-10                           0               2402           -74         0            0            0
Dec-10                           0               2402           -74         0            0            0
Totals                                            2445                                              21370




Tuesday               6th January             2009
Month                          Open              Price       Change        High        Low          Volume
Mar-09                         2480              2485           -21       2507         2425         8,464
May-09                         2475              2488           -19       2506         2441         2,254
Jul-09                         2468              2480           -16       2495         2443          212
Sep-09                         2434              2456           -18       2473         2434          99
Dec-09                         2400              2417           -22       2431         2397          198
Mar-10                         2366              2379           -34       2393         2366          109
May-10                         2371              2372           -34       2390         2371          14
Jul-10                           0               2377           -25         0            0            0
Sep-10                           0               2377           -25         0            0            0
Dec-10                           0               2412           10          0            0            0
Totals                                            2424                                              11350



Wednesday             14th January            2009
Month                          Open              Price       Change        High        Low          Volume
    Mar 2009                   2498               2398          -87        2542        2367          7562
    May 2009                   2480               2406          -82        2545        2376          2254
     Jul 2009                  2525               2398          -82        2533        2375          211
    Sep 2009                   2502               2376          -80        2510        2359           99
    Dec 2009                   2465               2339          -78        2467        2324          198
    Mar 2010                   2426               2308          -71        2428        2295          109
     May 2010                  2400               2301          -71        2400        2301           14
     Jul 2010                                     2306          -71        2306        2306
    Sep 2010                                      2306          -71        2306        2306
    Dec 2010                                      2341          -71        2341        2341
Average/Totals                                    2348                                              10447




                 COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                  5
                     P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                            Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Thursday               15th January                   2009
Month                            Open                  Price      Change           High             Low        Volume
     Mar 2009                        2385              2367           -31          2398             2351       12,920
    May 2009                         2388              2376           -30          2406             2361        3,805
     Jul 2009                        2380              2370           -28          2397             2361         929
     Sep 2009                        2380              2353           -23          2380             2338         182
     Dec 2009                        2323              2322           -17          2345             2308         148
     Mar 2010                        2295              2295           -13          2317             2278         58
     May 2010                                          2289           -12          2289             2289          3
     Jul 2010                                          2297           -9           2297             2297
     Sep 2010                                          2297           -9           2297             2297
     Dec 2010                                          2342           1            2342             2342
Average/Totals                                         2327                                                     18045



Friday                 16th January                   2009
Month                            Open                  Price      Change           High             Low        Volume
     Mar 2009                        2391              2463           96           2492             2391        8,576
    May 2009                         2409              2473           97           2499             2405        3,946
     Jul 2009                        2445              2467           97           2493             2445         597
     Sep 2009                        2431              2453           100          2470             2431         704
     Dec 2009                        2420              2422           100          2435             2414         358
     Mar 2010                        2393              2393           98           2408             2387         104
     May 2010                        2402              2389           100          2402             2389          1
     Jul 2010                                          2398           101          2398             2398
     Sep 2010                                          2398           101          2398             2398
     Dec 2010                                          2454           112          2454             2454
Average/Totals                                         2431                                                     14286



             Average for the week                      2396                                                     15100
                                                                                                               90,598



Spot Prices (US $ per tonne)
                                       12th January    13th January    14th January       15th January     16th January
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1                    3054           3033             2946             2915             3011
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1              2898           2877             2790             2759             2855
Main Crop Nigerian, 1                       2881           2860             2773             2742             2838
Superior Arriba                             2864           2843             2756             2725             2821
Sanchez f.a.q                               2883           2862             2775             2744             2840
Malaysian 110                               2519           2498             2411             2380             2476
Sulawesi f.a.q                              2701           2680             2593             2562             2658
Ecuador Cocoa Liquor                        4043           4009             3869             3819             3974
Pure Prime Press African Type
Cocoa Butter                                6850           6792             6555             6470             6732
10/12% Natural Cocoa Press
Cake                                        1103           1093             1055             1041             1084
Source: Cocoa Merchant Association




                  COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                              6
                      P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                             Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
                                                  News
 Health and Nutrition

Chocolate: A food we hold sacred
The Wenatchee World Online, WA
By Renee Enna; Chicago Tribune
January 13, 2009
Chocolate has been revered for centuries, starting with the discovery by Mesoamerican societies that cacao pods
contained edible ingredients. The tree grew wild in South America. One of the first preparations was a beverage
made with water, spices and chilies. (McClatchy photo)
It seems incongruous that the ingredient so integral to, say, a Hershey's Kiss, is the same one that for centuries
played a major role in religious and cultural rituals.

STORY TOOLS
Of course, anyone addicted to Hershey's Kisses may not think it strange at all.

Chocolate's reputation for inducing swoons has centuries of recorded history to back it up. It started with the
discovery by Mesoamerican societies that the cacao tree's ungainly looking pods contained edible ingredients.

The tree was known to grow wild in South America, and it's possible that as early as 1500 B.C. people were
cultivating it and eating the pulp that surrounded the cacao beans, said Mesoamerican archaeologist Meredith L.
Dreiss, co-author with Sharon Edgar Greenhill of the upcoming book, "Chocolate: Pathway to the Gods"
(University of Arizona Press, $30), and its companion DVD, a film of the same name that Dreiss made with her
brother, filmmaker Grant Mitchell.

But it's the pod's beans, not the pulp, that yield the chocolate. The Maya are thought to have perfected the
process of grinding the beans into a powder, which they combined with water, spices and chilies to create a
drink that was far different from the creamy cocoa we dollop with whipped cream.

"It was either unsweetened or bittersweet (chocolate), it was highly spiced and it wasn't made with milk which
was not available to the Mesoamericans, it was made with water," explained chocolatier Mark Sciscenti of
Kakawa Chocolate House in Santa Fe, who uses ancient recipes to recreate beverages in the spirit of those
times, and which are available on his Web site, kakawachocolates.com.

Cacao took off throughout Central and South America, but it was less a recreational foodstuff than a product of
cultural significance used as currency, medicine and in religious ceremonies that ranged from baptism to human
sacrifice. And it was not just important to the living. Dreiss said that burial vessels found in Guatemala dating to
400 A.D. not only had chocolate inside them, but that recipes for chocolate drinks were written on the pots.

Christopher Columbus is believed to be the first person to transport cacao beans from the New World to the Old
in 1502, according to the National Confectioners Association. The cacao that was brought from the New World
by Spanish explorers in the 16th century was a well-kept secret among the royal court. What fascinates Dreiss is
that the Spanish were able to keep chocolate a secret for so long: "It wasn't for about 100 years before it starts
spreading through the rest of Europe," she said.

Chocolate remained, at first, a drink of the Old World aristocracy, often enjoyed with, yes, milk and the
seasonings available to them, such as cinnamon, anise, black pepper, sesame seeds and almonds, Dreiss and
Greenhill write. It was the addition of another ingredient, however, that took chocolate to a different level: "For
when sugar was added to the bitter but sacred drink of the Maya, this beverage from the New World tropical
forests came to belong to the rest of the world." Eventually, the general populace got a taste of what they were
missing.




                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                             7
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
The Industrial Revolution made chocolate available to the masses, and ushered in the Next Big Thing for
chocolate, when somebody (it's not clear who) was able to combine the melted cocoa butter (the fat that occurs
naturally in cocoa beans) with sugar and cocoa powder to create the first solid eating chocolate.

The invention of the Hershey's Kiss (1907, by the way) was just a matter of time. Maybe we're coming back full
circle: The growing popularity of chocolate teamed with chili — a combination marketed as an exotic
introduction despite its centuries-old provenance — sees this foodstuff returning to its spicy roots.

Or maybe not.

Chocolate is good for you, and the world
Fair Home, UK
By David Masters
January 13, 2009

                              Forget your New Year‘s resolution to burn off the Christmas pounds for a minute,
                              and listen to this: chocolate is good for you.

                              Cacao, the fruit used to make chocolate, contains antioxidants and minerals with
                              well known health benefits. Cacao has more antioxidants that green tea or blue
                              berries. Antioxidants reduce the risk of heart disease and cancer.

Useful minerals in cacao include copper, magnesium, phosphorus, and calcium. Magnesium is one of the most
deficient minerals in modern eating habits - elsewhere it is only found in seeds, nuts and seaweed.

Fairtrade chocolate is not only good for you - it‘s good for the world. Many cacao farmers struggle to make
enough money to afford food, medicine, clean water, and school for their children.

On average, cacao farmers earn about £50 a year. Buying fairtrade makes sure that farmers always get a fair
price for the cocoa beans they sell - enabling them to feed and educate their families. Go on, treat yourself.
You‘ll be making the world a better place.

The perks of chocolate
NCA SmartBrief | 01/12/2009
Enjoy the health benefits of cacao by indulging in dark chocolate without a lot of added sugar. Cacao offers
antioxidants, magnesium and other minerals. Orlando Sentinel (Fla.) (01/11)


 Production & Quality

Ivory Coast plan to boost cocoa quality
By Sarah Hills, 12-Jan-2009
Confectionerynews.com
The Ivory Coast is taking steps to protect its cocoa industry with a plan to improve the quality of its crop which
is said to have fallen in standards over the last decade, according to reports. The country is a leading cocoa
grower but there has been a steady decline as now a reported 17 percent of produce does not meet quality norms.

AFP reported that Gilbert Anoh N'Guessan, the president of a management committee to oversee cocoa
operation, said that in the early part of the decade "only five percent of the produce" did not respond to quality
norms. He added: "We have to move fast."

The Ivory Coast has now launched a programme to improve the situation facing its key export with state
funding of between three and 4.5m euros over a 10 to 15 year period. Quality improvement initiatives will
include better ways of drying the bean and fighting soil degradation.

The Ivory Coast is the world‘s number one supplier of cocoa beans, producing 1.3 million tonnes last year,
followed by its neighbor Ghana – at 690,000 tonnes. Together, the two countries account for over half of the



                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                           8
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
world‘s cocoa production, which stood at approximately 3.9 million tonnes in 2007, according to FAOSTAT
figures.

The 2008/09 season has already been plagued by crop disease, disorganisation and political uncertainty in the
Ivory Coast, causing prices to rise on concerns about the supply and size of its harvest. December is usually the
peak of the harvesting season, but from October 1 to January 4, arrivals at Ivory Coast ports stood at just
491,000 tonnes, down from nearly double that – 803902 tonnes – a year earlier.

London futures hit their highest level since October 1985 on December 23, closing at £1820 a tonne as
speculative investors surged onto the market on the back of reports of extremely tight supply.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Oct 1 To Jan 11 Seen -27% On Yr
ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)--Arrivals of cocoa beans from Ivory Coast's farms at the ports the Oct. 1 to Jan. 11
period, the first 15 weeks of the 2008-09 season, are expected at around 600,000 metric tons, down 27% on the
825,000 tons in the same period last season, according to industry estimates obtained Wednesday.
ICE Cocoa Review: Drops To One-Month Lows On Economic Jitters

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bearish U.S. retail sales data ahead of fears for more indicators of economic
weakness triggered broad-scale selling that left ICE Futures U.S. cocoa near one-month lows Wednesday.
COFFEE

Indonesia's Sulawesi Cocoa Bean Exports Fall 10 Pct in 2008
Source: Reuters
14/01/2009
Jakarta, Jan 14 - Cocoa bean exports from Indonesia's main producing island of Sulawesi fell nearly 10 percent
to 274,994 tonnes in 2008, from 304,353 tonnes in 2007, as output dropped, according to trade data.

Sulawesi cocoa beans are mostly shipped from Makassar, in South Sulawesi province, and from Palu, in Central
Sulawesi. Exports from the port in Makassar fell 14.5 percent to 154,795 tonnes in 2008, while exports via Palu
declined 2.5 percent to 120,199 tonnes. "Some reasons for the decline include ageing cocoa trees and poor
handling of diseases," Zulhefi Sikumbang, secretary general of Indonesian Cocoa Association (Askindo), told
Reuters.
South, Southeast, West, and Central Sulawesi provinces normally account for about three-quarters of Indonesia's
total output, but cocoa trees in Sulawesi have been hit by the spread of a deadly fungal disease called Vascular-
Streak Dieback (VSD).

Sikumbang said that he expects cocoa production from new growing areas, such as West Sumatra and Papua, to
cover any further declines from Sulawesi in 2009. Askindo estimates cocoa bean output in Indonesia, the
world's number three cocoa producer, was 480,000 tonnes in 2008, down from 520,000 tonnes in 2007, mainly
due to the spread of VSD.

Cocoa is among Indonesia's top three plantation commodities by export value. Exports of cocoa beans and
products were valued at nearly $1 billion in 2007, according to government data. Indonesian cocoa farmers
benefited from good prices in 2008 as the price of local beans, which normally tracks New York futures, hit a
historic high of over 27,000 rupiah ($2.42) per kg in July. On Wednesday, Sulawesi fair average cocoa beans
were quoted at 23,100-23,700 rupiah per kg, compared to 23,500-24,000 rupiah per kg a week earlier in
Makassar.

Cameroon Exports 116,006 Tons Cocoa Beans Aug-Dec -NCCB.
YAOUNDE, Cameroon, Jan 14, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Cameroon exported
116,006 metric tons of cocoa beans between August and December of the ongoing 2008-09 season, up from
97,984 tons shipped out during the same period in the last season, according to data released to Dow Jones
Newswires Wednesday by the National Cocoa and Coffee Board. According to the statistics, the country
exported 40,057 tons of cocoa beans in December, up from 34,271 tons in December 2007. Cameroon
produced a record 187,532 tons of cocoa beans during the 2007-08 season, which runs from August to July,
2% more than the previous season. The NCCB is Cameroon's quality control watchdog for commodities.




               COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                           9
                   P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                          Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
The Market

MARKET TALK: ICE Cocoa Drops On Profit-Taking; Holds Support.
Jan 12, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- (Dow Jones) - ICE cocoa futures are trimming
losses off of three-week lows as suspected profit- taking pressured the market, an analyst says. March cotton is
down $89 at $2,496 a metric ton, off of a test of $2,450 support. May cocoa is down $73 at $2,506. A close
below $2,500 could invite a test of $2,250 support basis March, says Jimmy Tintle, analysts at Transworld
Futures in Tampa. ICE cocoa warehouse stocks decreased by 3,318 145-pound bags Friday to total 2.125
million bags, according to exchange data. Volume is estimated at 12068 lots, ICE reports. Liffe March cocoa
is down GBP24 at GBP1,784. (HEH).

SOFTS-Fund sales pummel sugar, coffee and cocoa
01.12.09
By Rene Pastor and Nigel Hunt
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Soft commodity futures stumbled Monday on across-the-board investment
fund sales as lower crude oil values and worries over global economies kept markets on the defensive, analysts
said. The soft markets, particularly sugar, were also believed to be under pressure from the annual rebalancing
of portfolios by index funds. Given the recent firmness in the complex, some analysts feel the pullback was to
be expected.

Comment On This Story
"Coffee and sugar are in a pause that refreshes," said Jack Scoville, vice president of brokers the Price Group in
Chicago. He said sugar should enjoy some support from supply problems in India and the prospect of some
consumer interest down the road.

But a trader in London cautioned that the inability of the March raw sugar contract to finish over 12 cents put
pressure on the market. "The problem is it hasn't been able to hold 12 cents and a few (speculators) have been
selling it short, expecting it to go down to 11.50 cents," the trader said.

New York's March raw sugar futures contract dropped 0.58 cent, or 4.81 percent, to end at 11.47 cents per lb,
just above the day's low of 11.45 cents. London's March white sugar contract dropped $12.60, or 3.71 percent,
to close at $326.50 per tonne.

COCOA AND COFFEE STUMBLE
The rest of the complex was also hit by investment fund sales, with currency-related pressure piling onto and
depressing cocoa futures, analysts said. The weak sterling pressured U.S. cocoa futures, sucking in the heavy
selling that in turn sparked automatic sell orders in the market, they said.

New York's March cocoa contract futures sank $79, or 3.05 percent, to finish at $2,506 per tonne. London's May
cocoa contract declined 19 pounds to finish at 1,745 pounds per tonne. The market continued to monitor slow
port arrivals of beans in top grower Ivory Coast. Cocoa arrivals in Ivorian ports hit 531,000 tonnes from Oct. 1
to Jan. 11, against 835,139 tonnes in the same period in 2007/08, exporters there estimated Monday.

The situation was no different in coffee futures. New York's March arabica coffee futures fell 2.40 cents, or 2.05
percent, to finish at $1.145 per lb. London's March robusta contract slid $35, or 2.05 percent, to end at $1,665
per tonne.

SOFTS-Cocoa stumbles late as economic gloom bites
By Rene Pastor and Nigel Hunt
NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Cocoa reeled from late investment liquidation while coffee and
sugar drifted lower on Wednesday as investors in soft commodities remained worried about the global economic
slowdown.

James Cordier, analyst for brokers optionsellers.com in Florida, said a cocoa was vulnerable to a pullback after a
surge in values. "People are hunkering down," said Cordier, adding that global market gyrations remain a key
mover of soft commodity futures.




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Analysts said the final batch of selling tied to the annual reweighting of commodity portfolios by index funds
also put pressure on soft agricultural markets.

Cocoa got an early boost from higher-than-expected European grind figures, which hit 349,351 tonnes in the
fourth quarter of 2008, the European Cocoa Association said. "The market took it positively because people had
begun to worry that the figure might come in significantly lower," said Jonathan Parkman, head of the agri-
commodity brokerage at Fortis Commodity Derivatives.

New York's March cocoa contract fell $87, down 3.5 percent on the day, to close at $2,398 per tonne. London's
May cocoa contract sank 43 pounds or by 2.43 percent to finish at 1,721 pounds per tonne.

SUGAR LOSES GROUND DESPITE CHINESE NEWS, COFFEE FALLS
Sugar futures could not sustain an advance and slipped into negative territory when investor sales pressured the
market.

China's largest sugar-producing region, Guangxi, was hit by freezing weather, causing possible damage to cane
from frost. But the news did not lift prices.

Millers in the western Indian state of Maharashtra produced 2.7 million tonnes of sugar in the current season
until Jan. 13, down 6.9 percent from the same period a year ago, Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of
Mahatashtra State Co-op Sugar Factories Federation Ltd., told Reuters.

New York's March raw sugar contract futures lost 0.10 cent to end at 11.43 cents per lb. London's March white
sugar contract dropped $1.20 to close at $324.60 per tonne.

Coffee also slipped due to index fund reweighting sales, but attention is turning to a tighter supply outlook.

New York's March arabica coffee futures shed 0.10 cent to finish at $1.1465 per lb. London's March robusta
contract lost $11 to end at $1,638 per tonne.

ICE Cocoa Slips to One-Month Low, Coffee Mixed
Source: Reuters
15/01/2009
London, Jan 15 - Cocoa prices tumbled in late trade on Wednesday with prices on ICE slipping to a one-month
low despite bullish European grinding figures, dealers said. "There was a buyer the last couple of days and it
looked as if they just ran out of ammo (ammunition) and once the buying stopped...we broke the lows in New
York and then carried on down," one cocoa dealer said.

March cocoa on ICE <CCH9 settled down $87 at $2,398, just above an earlier one-month low for the contract of
$2,367. May cocoa in London ended 43 pounds lower at 1,721 pounds. Dealers said the market had earlier risen
close to last month's 23-year high in London, boosted by stronger than expected European grinding figures.
Europe's cocoa grind edged up 0.1 percent year-on-year to 349,351 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2008, the
European Cocoa Association (ECA) said on Wednesday. The ECA's quarterly statistics cover most of the
grinding industry in the European Union and Switzerland. "The market certainly took it positively because
people had begun to worry that the figure might come in significantly lower," said Jonathan Parkman, head of
the agri-commodity brokerage at Fortis Commodity Derivatives. Parkman said some had feared a smaller grind
following last week's sharply lower German total but the latest figures demonstated that one particular company
was grinding less in Germany and more in other parts of Europe.

Germany's fourth quarter 2008 cocoa grind fell 17.2 percent year-on-year to 87,576 tonnes, the association of
German confectionery producers BDSI said last week. Parkman said, however, that European grind may not
fully reflect consumption trends as stocks of semi-finished products, particularly cocoa butter, had risen in the
fourth quarter. "Although the grind might have been unchanged, I don't think anyone would argue that
consumption was unchanged," he said.

Sugar prices fell on Wednesday, weakened by a final batch of selling linked to the annual reweighting by index
funds. "I think we are seeing some more fund reweighting coming in. It should be over by the end of today," one
sugar dealer said.



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March raws on ICE fell 0.09 cent to 11.44 cents a lb at 1752 GMT. Dealers said losses in other commodity
market had only a modest impact on sugar. "Sugar has been fairly resilient in comparison to other
commodities," one dealer said. March white sugar in London finished $1.20 lower at $324.60 per tonne.

China's largest sugar producing region of Guangxi in the south was hit by freezing weather for the second time
this year, and possible damage to sugar cane from frost pushed up domestic futures prices on Wednesday.

Coffee futures were mixed with March arabica futures on ICE up 0.10 cent at $1.1485 per lb. Dealers said the
market had absorbed selling linked to index fund reweighting and may now have scope to regain some ground
lost in the last few days as attention turns to a tighter supply outlook in 2009/10. Resistance was anticipated at
March arabica's recent peak of $1.1950 set on January 9. March robusta futures in London ended $11 lower at
$1,638 a tonne.

Foods and Softs Outlook for January 16, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
by CRB Research Team of Commodity Research Bureau

Foods and Softs Outlook - An Excerpt from CRB'S Futures Market Service

COFFEE—March Nybot Arabica coffee prices recovered to a 2-month high from last month‘s 1-1/2 yr low.
Bullish factors include (1) the drop in ICE coffee inventories to a 7-month low of 4.37 million bags as
inventories of Colombian coffee have plunged -68% in the past year, and (2) ICO‘s 2009-10 forecast for a 5 mln
bag world coffee deficit. Bearish factors include (1) the +14% y/y rise in Nov Brazilian coffee exports, (2) the
+1.8% rise this year in global coffee inventories to 4.55 mln bags, and (3) ICO‘s forecast for a 15% hike in
global coffee production in 2008/09 to 134.2 mln bags from 116.2 mln bags in 2007/08. Large specs aided the
recent coffee price gain as they sharply reduced their short position to 7,100 as of Jan 6. USDA coffee summary:
2007-08 world coffee production 117.8 mln bags (-4.7% vs 2006-07‘s 122.9 mln); 2007-08 world ending stocks
at a record low 18.3 mln bags.




COCOA—March cocoa prices fell to a 1-month low. Bearish factors Include (1) cocoa bean processing in
Europe increasing at its slowest pace in 6-years during 2008, and (2) general commodity liquidation that took
cocoa prices to a 13-month low in Oct. Bullish factors include (1) falling supplies with the -36% drop in cocoa
deliveries to Ivory Coast ports between Oct 1 and Jan 11, and (2) ICO‘s upward revision of its global cocoa
deficit forecast to 77,000 MT (from 41,000 MT) due to a cut in its 2007-08 global cocoa crop forecast to 3.65
mln tons. Large specs as of Jan 6 added to their moderate long position of 20,856.




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Processing & Manufacturing
European 4Q Cocoa Grind Up 0.1% On Year At 349,351 Tons.
FRANKFURT, Jan 14, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- European cocoa bean grindings
in the fourth quarter rose 0.1% to 349,351 tons on the year, the European Cocoa Association said Wednesday.
For the full year, European cocoa bean grindings rose 1.4% to 1.38 million tons from the previous year,
the association added.

UPDATE 1-U.S. Q4 2008 cocoa grind up 1.85 pct from year ago
NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. cocoa grindings in last year's fourth-quarter rose 1.85 percent from a year
earlier to 92,088 tonnes, data from the National Confectioners Association showed Thursday. The quantity of
chocolate liquor melted in the quarter rose 24.72 percent to 2,568 tonnes, while the butter melt was up 36
percent at 14,545 tonnes, according to the NCA data.

Cocoa grinding has traditionally been a measure of demand for the key chocolate ingredient, but traders have
said an increasing amount of beans are being ground in producing countries. Last year, the U.S. cocoa grinding
in the fourth quarter of 2007 was pegged at 90,411 tonnes.

Survey respondents include chocolate makers like Barry Callebaut USA (BARN.S), Hershey Co. (HSY.N),
Nestle Chocolate & Confections (NESN.VX) and Mars Snackfood US.

The results follow Europe's fourth-quarter 2008 cocoa grindings that edged up 0.1 percent year-on-year to
349,351 tonnes, the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association (ECA) said Wednesday.

In Germany, the fourth quarter 2008 cocoa grindings fell 17.2 percent year-on-year to 87,576 tonnes, the
association of German confectionery producers BDSI said last week.

Barry Callebaut Opens Brand New 100,000 Ton Chocolate Factory in Mexico
Source: Barry Callebaut AG
16/01/2009
Zurich, Switzerland/ Monterrey, Mexico, January 15, 2009 – Barry Callebaut AG, the world's leading
manufacturer of high-quality cocoa and chocolate products, today inaugurated its new state-of-the-art chocolate
factory located in Monterrey, Mexico. The construction of this factory is paramount to Barry Callebaut's global
expansion strategy and underlines the company's commitment to the Americas.

With an annual production capacity of around 100,000 tonnes, the new factory is Barry Callebaut‘s third largest
chocolate factory worldwide. The total investment amounted to approximately USD 40 million. Expansion into
Mexico allows Barry Callebaut to deliver chocolate to the local Mexican market, the Southern region of the
United States, and to Central and South America.

Patrick De Maeseneire, CEO of Barry Callebaut, said: ―Our new chocolate factory in Monterrey, Mexico, will
enable Barry Callebaut to move closer to its growing customer base of multinational and local food
manufacturers in this region. Chocolate confectionery in Mexico is expected to grow on average by 6.5 %1 per


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                   P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                          Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
year in value terms over the next five years. These growth projections make the Mexican market a very
attractive investment for Barry Callebaut. The expansion into Mexico has strengthened our position as the No.1
chocolate manufacturer in North America.‖

The new factory integrates a high level of automation and meets the highest quality standards to guarantee
maximum food safety. It is designed to manufacture industrial chocolate – liquid and moulded chocolate – as
well as compound. Capacity utilization at the plant is expected to rise rapidly and reach 60-70% by the end of
fiscal year 2009/10. Full capacity is expected to be reached within five years.

In addition to servicing food manufacturers, Barry Callebaut will also continue to import Gourmet chocolate
products to sell to artisanal chocolate users such as chocolatiers, pastry chefs and caterers in Mexico.

The new production site in Monterrey will offer Barry Callebaut a high level of flexibility within the region to
respond to growing demand in both Mexico and North America more broadly. Barry Callebaut operates eight
chocolate and cocoa factories in the Americas.


Business & Economy

Commodities Roll Yield in 2009
Seeking Alpha, NY - 12 Jan 2009
Let's start with the obvious: 2008 was a difficult year for commodity investors. In fact, it was the worst year
ever, with the S&P GSCI falling 42.35%. The horrible thing was that it all felt so good right up through
summer. The S&P GSCI was up 41.42% at midyear, trading at all-time highs, before plunging 62% in six
consecutive wrenching months of declines.

There was almost nowhere to hide. Just two of the 24 commodities in the index delivered positive returns: cocoa
and gold. By contrast, seven commodities fell more than 50%, led by lead, which tumbled 61.40%. And outside
cocoa and gold, no other commodity did better than a -20% return. All these figures reflect excess returns,
which combines spot returns with roll yield and reflects the experience of investors in this market.




Importantly, however, excess returns overstate how bad things were from a spot price perspective. From a spot
perspective, four commodities had positive returns in 2008: cocoa (30.96%), sugar (9.15), gold (5.53%) and lean
hogs (5.18%). An additional five commodities had returns of less than -20%: live cattle (-10.55%), corn (-
10.65), feeder cattle (-12.54%), coffee (-17.73%) and soybeans (-19.29%).




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                          Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
The following figure shows how the spot returns differed from the excess returns.




The difference between these two figures owes itself to the fact that all 24 commodities had negative roll yields
for 2008, which contributed between 1.4% (nickel) and 38.3% (lean hogs) of negative return to the commodities
market.

The table below shows the spot, roll and excess returns for each of the commodities in 2008, sorted by the roll
yield.

                     Commodity                Roll Return   Spot Return   Excess Return
                     Nickel                   -1.4%         -55.5%        -56.9%
                     Heating Oil              -1.6%         -45.6%        -47.2%
                     Silver                   -2.3%         -24.3%        -26.6%
                     Zinc                     -2.4%         -49.4%        -51.8%
                     Crude Oil                -2.6%         -53.5%        -56.1%
                     Soybeans                 -3.1%         -19.3%        -22.3%
                     Gold                     -3.2%         5.5%          2.4%
                     Unleaded Gasoline        -3.9%         -57.4%        -61.3%
                     Aluminum                 -4.9%         -36.1%        -41.0%
                     Cocoa                    -5.8%         31.0%         25.1%
                     Brent Crude              -6.0%         -47.9%        -53.9%
                     Kansas Wheat             -7.1%         -31.0%        -38.1%
                     Wheat                    -8.5%         -31.0%        -39.4%
                     Feeder Cattle            -8.7%         -12.5%        -21.3%
                     Coffee                   -9.5%         -17.7%        -27.3%
                     Natural Gas              -11.9%        -24.9%        -36.7%
                     Corn                     -12.4%        -10.6%        -23.1%
                     Cotton                   -15.7%        -27.9%        -43.6%
                     Live Cattle              -16.8%        -10.5%        -27.3%
                     Sugar                    -30.3%        9.1%          -21.1%
                     Lean Hogs                -38.3%        5.2%          -33.1%


The reason we write so much about contango is that it has an enormous impact on returns. For instance, a lot of
investors (such as Jim Rogers) spent 2008 talking about the bullish outlook for sugar. Impressively enough, they
were right: Sugar rose 9.1% in 2008 on a spot basis, despite global market conditions. But an investor in sugar
lost 21.1% last year, because a vicious contango seriously impacted returns.

A similar story was true of most Agricultural commodities. Although the markets were down in 2008 on a spot
basis, they were not down as much as investors experienced – because the roll yield was nasty.




               COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                           15
                   P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                          Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
The Outlook For 2009
As we enter 2009, the focus on contango has become even more important, because the roll yield in many
commodities is brutal right now. The table below examines the annualized roll yield for the 24 S&P GSCI
commodities. Data is as of January 9, 2009, and comes from each relevant exchange.
The data is calculated in the simplest manner possible: Next month's contract value (or next quarter for some
commodities) is subtracted from this month's contract value, and expressed as a percentage of the current value
of the contract. This figure is then annualized.

Importantly, this simplistic equation does not attempt to capture what investors will actually experience
throughout the year. Contango levels change significantly on a day-by-day and month-by-month basis, and the
level that investors experience will depend both on those trends and on where the figures stand when the indexes
make their transition from one fund to the next. Often, a commodity will be in contango because it anticipates
upward movement in the commodity spot price.

Still, expressing these differences in a percentage format gives you a window onto the direction in which roll
yield may impact prices in 2009. (Figures are ranked by the weight of each commodity in the S&P GSCI.)

                                                    Weight       Implied Roll Yield
                          Crude Oil                 30.8%        -153.2%
                          Brent Crude               12.5%        -90.4%
                          Unleaded Gasoline         3.6%         -50.4%
                          Heating Oil               5.1%         -6.1%
                          GasOil                    5.1%         -5.9%
                          Natural Gas               7.8%         8.1%
                          Aluminum                  2.6%         -12.5%
                          Copper                    2.4%         0.0%
                          Lead                      0.4%         0.0%
                          Nickel                    0.7%         3.5%
                          Zinc                      0.6%         -6.7%
                          Gold                      3.4%         3.5%
                          Silver                    0.3%         -1.4%
                          Wheat                     5.3%         -19.3%
                          Kansas Wheat              1.2%         -10.9%
                          Corn                      5.0%         -15.9%
                          Soybeans                  3.3%         0.0%
                          Cotton                    1.1%         -5.4%
                          Sugar                     1.9%         -47.9%
                          Coffee                    0.9%         -22.2%
                          Cocoa                     0.4%         4.1%
                          Feeder Cattle             0.6%         15.9%
                          Live Cattle               3.3%         -53.1%


The place to look is at the top of the table, at the highest-weighted commodities in the index. The levels of
contango are simply punishing in many of those commodities, with historic headwinds in the Oil and Gasoline
markets. It's worth noting that a number of commodities have positive roll yields right now: feeder cattle,
natural gas, nickel, cocoa, etc. By and large, however, these have small weights in the index.

No one is suggesting that oil's annual contango is really going to cost investors 153%. But the annualized
figures dramatize the fact that contango is vicious in today's market. Even if spot prices rise, investors in an
S&P GSCI index fund (or other commodity index funds) could well experience negative returns. As we learned
in 2008, roll yield matters.




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The invincibles – recession proof food and healthy eating
By Sarah Hills, 12-Jan-2009
Confectionerynews.com
There are fears that in the economic crisis consumers will put on ―recession pounds‖ by eating unhealthily.
Rightly or wrongly, food manufacturers may suffer the blame but ―unhealthy‖ and ―recession proof‖ do not
necessarily go hand-in-hand. And as consumers re-evaluate their spending, knowing which products are likely
to be hit hardest could help give food companies a competitive edge.

Recent analysis showed that consumers are shifting blame for obesity problems in the US on to food
manufacturers, saying they should provide healthier products and holding them more responsible than fast-food
firms. At the same time obesity and unhealthy eating habits have been linked to low incomes and, as consumers
cut back on spending, they are expected to turn to cheaper food options that are high in sugar and saturated fats.
This is at the expense of items such as fresh fruit and vegetables. But good value does not necessarily mean high
fat or sugar content as manufacturers can offer recession proof products without the recession pounds.

For example, the food giant Chiquita Brands International claimed that bananas are ―recession resistant‖ after
analyzing its 2008 results, according to reports last week. Its chief executive, Fernando Aguirre, said bananas
are ―a staple and a great value compared with other food items‖, selling for an average 30 US cents (20p in the
UK).

In the meat category, figures from a Packaged Facts report show that chicken is seeing strong growth compared
to other meats, as the perception that it is more healthy and affordable appears to be winning consumers over.

Also niche health markets are expected to ride out the recession because of their ―ultra-loyal‖ customer base,
according to New Nutrition Business. It said that the mass consumer won‘t pay a premium in hard times but the
health conscious niche will, and welcomes new health concepts that help maintain wellness.

On the other side of the coin, chocolate, which has been hailed as virtually immune to recession as people
continue to reach for small indulgences, may not be as resilient as once thought. The International Cocoa
Organisation recently warned that the outlook for 2009 chocolate consumption is still uncertain and a likely
reflection of this was that cocoa processing margins have been declining in recent months.

Likewise, in its latest cocoa market report, chocolate and cocoa manufacturer Barry Callebaut said that
―uncertain sales in light of the economic crisis will probably lead to a lower demand for cocoa products in
2009‖.

Other food categories that are expected to be virtually immune to the economic storm include French fries,
candy and beer, while those expected to suffer include organics and carbonated beverages. But in an interview
the Financial Post, published last week, Wallace McCain who founded the Canadian global giant McCain
Foods, famous for its French fries, said that the basics would be the last to suffer. When asked if French fries are
recession proof he gave a resounding yes and said: ―The last thing you give up is food. Going to the rink you'll
give up buying an extra cup of coffee, but you gotta eat.‖ ―I just think if this country goes to hell, we'd be the
last one down.‖

MARKET TALK: ICE Cocoa Pares Losses In Consolidative Trade.
Jan 13, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- 1033 EST (Dow Jones) - ICE cocoa is
trimming losses to trade near unchanged as futures bounce back in continued consolidation, analysts say.
Futures have slipped from highs to test lows in recent weeks. March cocoa is down $3 at $2,503 a metric ton
and the May contract is $3 lower at $2,504. March hit the $2,425 four-week low in early dealings as the
weaker British pound and stronger U.S. dollar dynamic weighs on prices. March has support at $2,400, says
Boyd Cruel, senior softs analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. ICE cocoa warehouse stocks were up 8,267
145-pound bags Monday at 2.133 million bags, according to exchange data. Liffe March cocoa is up GBP34 at
GBP1,809 a ton. (HEH).

PNG govt faces drop in income if commodity prices remain low.
PORT MORESBY, Jan 14 Asia in Focus - There will be a gap in the Papua New Guinea government's income
if world commodity prices remain low between now and the expected start of the planned liquefied natural gas
project in 2013, said a local expert. This is because of a drop in oil production from existing oil fields and the
impacts of the world financial crisis which had seen major commodity prices drop to all-time lows. * Only


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gold is constant at over US$700 per ounce and cocoa, which was experiencing a 23-year high due to a drop in
global supplies.

This was the observation from Institute of National Affairs (INA) director Paul Barker when contacted to comment on the
dropping commodity prices and government revenue projections.

Cote d'Ivoire: Government Fixes new Purchasing Price for Coffee, Cocoa.
14 January 2009.
Thomson Corporation
Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use
must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
Commerce.

The 2008-2009 coffee purchasing season has been launched. The recommended producer price of green coffee
has been fixed at 525 CFA francs. The announcement was made in Abidjan yesterday by Gilbert Ano,
chairman of the management committee of the coffee-cocoa sector. The government has decided o maintain
the recommended producer price of coffee at the same level as thatof the previous season. As such, the
recommended price for green coffee is 525CFA francs. The announcement was made in Abidjan yesterday
by Gilbert Ano, chairman of the management committee of the coffee and cocoa sector. According to him,
this price was fixed by taking into account the announced increase in the volume of world production, the
stocks carried forward as declared by the exporting countries, the fall in the value of the dollar and the
pound sterling, as well as the financial crisis affecting the whole world. If we are to believe Mr Ano, at the
level of the national coffee production, Cote d‘Ivoire, whose estimates for coffee harvest constituted a price
indicator with380,000 tons of red coffee in 2000, has recorded a continuous reduction in production to
80,000 tons during the 2007-2008 season. "Therefore, contrary to cocoa for which Cote d‗Ivoire is a price
fixer, our country is subjected to the law of the coffee market, a law dictated by countries such as Brazil
and Vietnam, " stated the speaker. If we are to believe Mr Ano, the serious crisis that faces the entire world is at
the basis of the fall in the price of 1kilogram of coffee that has varied between $763 and $952 per ton of coffee
during the past three purchasing seasons. "The entire world is going through one of the most serious crises
and Cote d‘Ivoire is not spared from this phenomenon, considering that coffee and cocoa are traded for in
dollars or pound sterling. As such, the kilogram of coffee that was equivalent to a dollar and therefore 700
CFA francs only a year ago is now worth only 450 CFA francs, "explained the chairman of the management
committee. On the occasion, he encouraged the coffee producers not to give up so that they can restore to
Cote d‘Ivoire its position of being the first producer of robusta coffee in Africa.

For the 2008-2009 season, the exporting countries have declared a stock Carried forward for 2007-2008
of 1,020,000, or a reduction of 49 percent in the stock carried forward, as compared to the 2006-2007
season. The indicative producer price of cocoa, on its part, has been fixed at 700 CFA francs. According to the
speaker, after fixing the marketable price of cocoa at 700 CFA francs for the period October-December 2008,
the market recorded a temporary reduction, thus allow in gun certainty to persist over the respect of the
recommended producer price that has been fixed. "However, in the month of December 2008, the market,
integrating the reduction in production that we had anticipated, (-35.4 percent as compared to the 2007-2008
season at 31 December), enabled some producers to sell their cocoa at a producer price that is clearly lower
than the indicative price fixed, " the chairman of the management committee rejoiced.

Ivory Coast's cocoa industry faces a bleak future
Financial Times, UK
By Matthew Green in Lagos
January 15 2009
In the golden years after Ivory Coast won independence from France in 1960, cocoa plantations were the lush
engine of prosperity. Millions of migrants helped build what would become the world's biggest cocoa industry.
Skyscrapers built on the proceeds turned Abidjan, the commercial capital, into a so-called "Manhattan of West
Africa". As the cocoa pods swelled, so did the nation's self-confidence.

Today, the industry's prospects appear decidedly sickly. Political turmoil that followed the outbreak of a civil
war in 2002 has hindered the investment needed to replace ageing trees. Cocoa-growing, formerly a source of
pride, has lost its prestige. The cloud hanging over Ivory Coast's cocoa industry - which delivers 40 per cent of
the world's cocoa - has fuelled a gravity defying rally in cocoa prices even as the global slowdown has caused
prices for other commodities to slump.


                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                                18
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
London cocoa prices jumped by almost 70 per cent last year to reach 23-year highs last month at £1,820 a tonne,
buoyed by concerns about supply and the weakness of sterling. It traded yesterday at £1,803 a tonne. Cocoa
prices in New York, denominated in dollars, rose by more than 30 per cent last year.

With some care, experts say activity in Ivory Coast's cocoa belt could rebound. But unless a rescue effort is
mounted soon, analysts argue this year's poor harvest could mark the start of a drawn-out decline that will boost
cocoa prices for years to come. "If the status quo continues, then the cocoa sector is likely to die a slow death,"
said Daniel Sellen, lead agricultural economist with the World Bank in Abidjan. "A complete collapse of the
sector cannot be ruled out if there is no action."

This season's poor harvest is taken by some to be a warning of what lies ahead for the world's cocoa market.
Bean arrivals until last week were the lowest in years, according to data from Abidjan's Bourse du Café et du
Cacao. Only 530,000 tonnes have turned up from the country's main harvest, which started in October, down
more than 35 per cent from about 835,000 in the same period last year. The harvest ends in mid-March.

While past forecasts of the industry's demise and of permanently higher cocoa prices have proved premature, the
country's farmers face this time a particularly toxic constellation of problems.Warring sides in the conflict that
divided the country after 2002 have milked the notoriously opaque sector for cash and starved rural areas of
investment. Among the world's most heavily taxed cocoa growers, farmers have neither money nor incentive to
buy fertiliser or to replant. Mr Sellen says Ivory Coast's cocoa farmers only receive about 35-40 per cent of
international prices, compared with about 75-90 per cent in rival producers.

Diseases, including the so-called black-pod ailment, have also ravaged cocoa farms. With large numbers of
cocoa trees on the cusp of the 25-year mark at which productivity falls sharply, some fear Ivory Coast could be
on the edge of a structural shift towards years of declining production, leaving the world's market more
dependent on supplies from Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, and from Indonesia. In addition, many growers in
Ivory Coast have switched from cocoa to rubber, further reducing output, as they seek higher returns.

Fortis Bank says without markedly better husbandry and investment, it is doubtful the country's output can be
sustained at much more than 1m tonnes per year; a level that could eventually become "very supportive for
prices". François Ruf, researcher at France's Cirad tropical agriculture institute, thinks there is a real risk output
will steadily fall: "I would not be surprised if within a few years, Ivory Coast was producing [only] 500,000-
600,000 tonnes of cocoa."

By such a scenario, London-based commodities traders fear cocoa prices could shoot up to more than £2,000 a
tonne, attaining levels not seen since the late 1970s. Prices reached an all-time high of £3,512 a tonne in
nominal terms in July 1977. "The cocoa sector is living in a hand-to-mouth, season-by-season manner," says
Fortis Bank. The liberalisation process begun in the last decade has failed to ensure farmers receive a higher
proportion of profits needed to spur investment, while rural poverty rates have almost doubled during the past
six years.

The legacy from the civil war, which stemmed in part from resentments caused by waves of immigration to
cocoa plantations in previous decades, has left a raw legacy for farmers. A peace deal signed in 2007 officially
marked the end of the conflict that divided the country. But progress towards disarming militant groups has been
slow and the repeated postponement of elections has added to a pervasive sense of drift.

Pressure by donors and farmers' groups has led the government of Laurent Gbagbo, the president, to promise
reforms. Senior officials accused of corruption have been arrested. The government has set up an interim
management board to consider how to restructure the sector. Ivory Coast's cocoa farmers - like the trees they
tend - have proved remarkably resilient. For the markets, the question is whether the country's leaders can
provide the support they need to thrive instead of merely to survive.

Callebaut Says Crisis Won't Kill Chocolate Growth
Source: Reuters
16/01/2009
Monterrey, Mexico, Jan 16 - Chocolate maker Barry Callebaut said on Thursday consumption in the United
States and Europe was falling due to the economic crisis but strong demand in places like India would keep
growth on track.


                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                               19
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Patrick De Maeseneire, chief executive of the Swiss chocolate maker, told Reuters after he opened a 100,000-
tonne factory in northern Mexico he saw world cocoa prices falling to between 1,250 and 1,450 pounds sterling
per tonne this year on good harvests from Ivory Coast and Ghana. "Annual demand has always been between 1
and 2 percent in the mature markets of Western Europe and the United States. But we are seeing an impact on
the mature markets amid the economic crisis," De Maeseneire said. "This is a temporary situation because of the
crisis. Everyone is expecting the market to pick up after the summer and in Europe it might be six to nine
months later," he added.

De Maeseneire said the company's income was not so far impacted by the falling demand in the U.S. and
Europe because of price increases for customers last year. He said the chocolate business was still a so-called
"defensive industry" because even in times of recession, people are always tempted by chocolate. "Chocolate is
an affordable luxury and is one of the products you just don't want to give up on. The crisis is indeed severe, but
this market will continue to do well," De Maeseneire said.

The Callebaut CEO said developing countries like China, Russia, India and Mexico will be the engine behind
future growth, helping the company reach production of 1.5 million tonnes by 2013, up from the current 1.2-
million-tonne level. The group, which provides the food manufacturing industry with cocoa and chocolate
products, coatings and cocoa powders, is expanding in Mexico to further bolster its business. The company,
which makes chocolate for groups such as Nestle and Cadbury , has invested $40 million in a new plant in the
city of Monterrey near the U.S. border to serve the Mexican market and southern U.S. states.

Callebaut expects consumption in Mexico -- the home of chocolate where ancient Olmec people first discovered
the process of extracting it from cacao beans -- to grow 6.5 percent over the next four years.

In India, the company, which has 40 factories in 26 countries, sees 18 percent sales volume growth over the
same period.

PRICE OUTLOOK
De Maeseneire said cocoa prices, which have not been hurt by the collapse in other commodity prices, were
very high at 1,750 to 1,800 pounds sterling per tonne. But he expected them to fall from February as plenty of
rainfall helps the coming harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast produces 40 percent of the world's
cocoa. "There is still a lot of crop coming through, and added to that, there is a slight drop in (chocolate)
demand. So we see the market price in London at between 1,250 and 1,450 pounds per tonne as an average for
the year," De Maeseneire said.

Cocoa output to fall below use - Industry Group
By Bloomberg
Modern Ghana, Ghana - 16 Jan 2009
Cocoa production will fall short of demand in the 2008-09 season as output declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana,
the world's leading growers, International Cocoa Organization statistician Laurent Pipitone said. ―Many analysts
are concerned if production has reached a peak in Ivory Coast,‖ Pipitone said in an interview in London
yesterday. In Ivory Coast, the largest grower, production probably will drop 4 percent for the season that began
Oct. 1, Brussels-based financial-services company Fortis said last month.

Arrivals of cocoa at ports in Ivory Coast have dropped between 30 percent and 40 percent this season from a
year earlier, Pipitone said. Ghana, the second-biggest grower, will also have a smaller crop, Pipitone said. Fortis
last month forecast 8 percent average annual growth in the country's output since 2004-05 and a 4.3 percent gain
in the current season to 720,000 metric tons.

The London-based International Cocoa Organization expects to make an estimate of the deficit next month,
Pipitone said. Fortis put the gap at 45,000 tons.

Cocoa for March delivery climbed 28 pounds, or 1.6 percent, to 1,764 pounds ($2,639) a ton at 2:11 p.m. on
London's Liffe exchange. Prices gained 71 percent last year.


 Labour Issues


                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                            20
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Research and Development
Consortium Using 454, Illumina Sequencers to Decode Cacao Genome
By Andrea Anderson
NY - 12 Jan 2009
SAN DIEGO (GenomeWeb News) — A consortium of researchers is using sequencers made by Roche 454 and
Illumina, and possibly also Sanger sequencing and other methods, to decode the cacao genome, according to a
US Department of Agriculture-Agriculture Research Service researcher.

Brian Scheffler, a computational molecular biologist and director of the USDA-ARS Mid-South Area Genomics
Laboratory, described the plan to sequence the 400-megabase genome during a workshop at this year's at the
Plant and Animal Genome conference, held here Jan. 10-14.

"Everyone says America runs on oil," Scheffler said during the session. In fact, "America runs on coffee and
chocolate."

Last June, the USDA-ARS, along with IBM and candy maker Mars, announced that they were embarking on a
five-year study to sequence the cacao genome. At yesterday's session, several individuals involved in the
collaboration shed additional light on the project.

Describing the project's decision to use a combination of 454 and Illumina sequencers, Scheffler emphasized the
need to balance quality, speed, and cost. He said the team is using several complementary approaches to
perform whole-genome shotgun sequencing of the cacao genome, including long- and short-read, high-
throughput sequencing.

The researchers plan to use long random-sheared and paired-end reads generated by Roche 454 sequencing,
along with short paired-end reads generated using Illumina technology. The team will likely also use Sanger
sequencing, BAC-end sequencing, and fosmid sequencing to fill in remaining gaps, Scheffler said.

A bioinformatics group at IBM will carry out quality assurance for the project, while researchers at the
Department of Energy's Joint Genome Institute will bring their own methods to help assemble and annotate the
genome, Scheffler said.

He said the cacao consortium also aims to make data accessible to other research groups and work with cacao
breeders and end-users.

Take two Mars bars and relax
Herald Sun, Australia - 14 Jan 2009
Kamahl Cogdon and Antonia Magee
SWEET tooths rejoice: chocolate bars and drinks could soon replace pills and foul-tasting tonics in the medicine
cabinet. But there is bad news for coffee guzzlers, who are more likely to see dead people if they knock back too
many espressos.

The Alfred Hospital is testing a cocoa drink on patients with high blood pressure in an Australian-first study that
could lead to new medicinal treats. Cocoa is rich in natural compounds, known as flavonols, which are thought
to lower blood pressure and keep it at safe levels by improving the elasticity and function of blood vessels.

Head of clinical pharmacology Prof Henry Krum said the research, if successful, could lead to bars and drinks
designed to improve blood-vessel health. The study is being sponsored by confectionary giant Mars, which is
already working on a medicinal bar.

Alfred hospital patient Patrick Danaher, 62, has been taking the chocolate drinks twice a day for six months,
relieving the hypertension he has suffered for more than 30 years. His blood pressure has dropped from high to
normal range. The Burwood East grandfather said mixing the cocoa powder with water was a simple way to
take his medicine. "My blood pressure is the lowest it's been for years," he said.




                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                            21
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
Meanwhile, a British study has found caffeine fanatics could be more at risk of experiencing hallucinations as
well as sensing the presence of the dead. Students from Durham University involved in the study who drank
about eight cups of instant coffee a day were three times more likely to hear voices when no one was there, the
study found.

The study's authors said many healthy people often regularly heard voices.

Environmental Issues
World Cocoa Foundation Sets Guiding Sustainability Principles
GreenBiz, CA
By GreenBiz Staff
January 15, 2009
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The World Cocoa Foundation, which has been pushing for sustainability in the cocoa
industry since 2000, has developed a series of sustainability principles and goals to prioritize its activities, assist
cocoa farmers and guide industry efforts.

The foundation is made up of about 60 member companies large and small, including Hershey, Mars, Starbucks,
Jelly Belly, Kraft, Ghirardelli, Dagoba, See's and Chocolove.
The principles and goals were developed over the last two years with input from more than 50 of the
foundation's members, and they cover profit, people and the planet.

Regarding the plant, the foundation wants to see more responsible and sound environmental stewardship in
place at coca farms and in surrounding communities, including responsible soil and water use, rational use of
agro-chemicals and implementation of Integrated Pest Management, a strategy that combines various methods
with the goal of reducing pesticide use. Another planet-related goal include making sure all stakeholders
understand, respect and value the benefits of biodiversity and environmental assets.

In the area of profit, the principles call for improved and equitable economic returns for farmers, ensuring
productive farming practices are in place, using diversification as a tool for good farm management and
developing an efficient and transparent cocoa value chain.

Lastly, when it comes to people, the goals include implementing national and international labor standards, safe
farming practices, and strong and effective farmer organizations. The principles will guide the foundations
current and future programs, which are in place in West Africa, Southeast Asia and the Americas.

Promotion


 Others




                COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                                22
                    P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                           Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org
TIT BITS
(Source: Business Recorder – www.brecorder.com)

Commodity prices move both ways in world market
LONDON (January 11, 2009): Commodity prices traded mixed last week, as oil dropped, metals diverged and
cocoa hit a record peak in London, at the start of what is expected to be another tough year for global financial
markets. Commodities rode a roller coaster in 2008, with crude oil, gold and base metals striking record heights
on tight supplies, before tumbling as the global financial crisis sparked demand worries.

London sugar, cocoa and coffee slip
LONDON (January 13, 2009): Sugar, cocoa and coffee prices all fell on Monday, swept lower in a broad-based
decline in commodity markets as the dollar rose and fears of a deepening global economic downturn heightened.
"We have dollar strength and also got a continuation of the fund rebalancing which is obviously hitting the
market," one sugar dealer said.

US MIDDAY: coffee little changed
NEW YORK (January 13, 2009): Arabica coffee futures were little changed in early trade on Monday,
consolidating after rallying to a two-month high Friday, while US cocoa fell in tandem with the British pound
against the dollar, traders said. Arabica coffee for March delivery down 0.05 cent to $1.1685 per lb by 9:11 am
EST (1411 GMT). Trading range from $1.1540 to $1.1885. March volume at 2,937 lots.

US MIDDAY: cocoa drops, coffee seesaws
NEW YORK (January 14, 2009): US cocoa futures dropped to a one month low for the second straight day in
early trade on Tuesday, pressured by the weak sterling, while arabica coffee sought direction and was little
changed, traders said. Arabica coffee for March delivery down 0.15 cent at $1.1435 per lb by 9:02 am EST
(1402 GMT). Trading range from $1.1355 to $1.1525.

Cocoa futures higher in London
LONDON (January 14, 2009): Arabica coffee and raw sugar futures advanced on Tuesday as both markets
rebounded from the previous day's losses despite a stronger dollar. cocoa showed mixed trends with a strong
dollar weighing on prices on ICE while the sterling-denominated London market rose. Fund selling had
triggered widespread losses in commodity markets on Monday.

London sugar and cocoa slip
LONDON (January 15, 2009): cocoa prices tumbled in late trade on Wednesday with prices on ICE slipping to a
one-month low despite bullish European grinding figures, dealers said. "There was a buyer the last couple of
days and it looked as if they just ran out of ammo (ammunition) and once the buying stopped...we broke the
lows in New York and then carried on down," one cocoa dealer said.

US MIDDAY: cocoa higher
NEW YORK (January 15, 2009): US cocoa futures were higher in early trade Wednesday, pulled up by firm
dealings in London following bullish European cocoa grind data, while arabica coffee was also firm, traders
said. Arabica coffee for March delivery up 0.85 cent at $1.1560 per lb by 9:24 am EST (1424 GMT).

US MIDDAY: cocoa tumbles
NEW YORK (January 16, 2009): US cocoa futures fell to a one-month low for the fourth straight day in early
trade on Thursday, on continued weakness and ahead of the US grind data, while arabica coffee futures also
eased, traders said. Arabica coffee for March delivery down 0.35 cent at $1.1430 per lb by 9:38 am EST (1438
GMT). Trading range from $1.1325 to $1.1555. March volume at 2,739 lots.




                 COCOA PRODUCERS’ ALLIANCE, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY COMPLEX TAFAWA BALEWA SQUARE,                         23
                     P.O. BOX 1718, LAGOS, NIGERIA. TEL: +234(0)1-263-5574 FAX: +234(0)1-263-5684
                            Email: econs@copal-cpa.org Website: www.copal-cpa.org

								
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