2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium Technology Estimating

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					                        2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium


       Technology Estimating: Organizing Chaos


                                             Bob Sefcik
                                       Glenn Research Center
                                           April 13, 2005



Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field
                                       What is CHAOS?




      Cleveland Having Another Off-season Snowstorm
                                        April 3, 2005
2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                    4/13/05   2
                                       Agenda

       •    Problem
       •    Approach
       •    NASA Technology Inventory Database
       •    GRC Technology Test Resource Estimating
       •    Next Steps




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                  4/13/05   3
                                       Problem

       • Asked to do independent cost estimate for Vehicle
         Systems Program
       • No current GRC database for estimating technology
         development projects
       • Data to populate such a database is spread out
         amongst many people or in long term storage or
         missing/discarded due to personnel turnover or ….
       • No known method to estimate the cost of TRL
         advancement that is supported by actual data




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                    4/13/05   4
                                        Approach

       • Break technology work down to the major task level
              – Hardware and Software Task Resources
                   • NASA Technology Inventory Database (NTIDB)
                      – Documents Center technology tasks since 1998
                      – Tracks planned resources and TRL advancement
                      – Provides previous years and future year planned activities
                      – Not actuals! Very difficult to collect actuals on each task
                        after the fact
                   • Center data if available
              – Functional Task Resources
                   • Used to break down tasks captured at a higher level in the
                     NTIDB
                   • Center data if available


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                              4/13/05   5
             NASA Technology Inventory Database Content

       Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology

                Task ID                Center   Sponsor   UPN
                  5832                 GRC       AST      755

       Objective & Description: Flywheel energy systems provide storage
       of energy and momentum using high speed rotating masses. They
       offer the potential….

       Benefit: Flywheels promise order of magnitude increases in
       performance…

       Technology Metrics: Watts/kg…


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                4/13/05   6
             NASA Technology Inventory Database Content

       Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology

       Milestones
          TRL         Year                                Description
            4         2004       Complete design of advanced technology flywheel module

            4         2004       Test counter-rotating flywheel modules on air-bearing table, full
                                 scale
            5         2005       Conduct multi-degree-of freedom flywheel system demonstration,
                                 breadboard level
            5         2005       Conduct characterization tests of advanced technology flywheel
                                 module
            6         2007       TRL 6/7 estimate




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                 4/13/05   7
             NASA Technology Inventory Database Content
       Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology
       Resources Profile
                 FY          1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
               NASA          1260       990     1250   1200    1300     2533    1900      1900       1900
            Profile in K$
                Civil         0.0        0.0    9.0     8.5     9.0      8.5     6.5      6.5        6.5
            Service FTE

                                       Distribution of NASA Funding                              FY04 k$
          Contracts With Whom            QSS SSC, Aerospace Corp., small vendors                318
          Grants With Whom               University of Toledo, Penn State U., Auburn U.         329
          NASA Field Center              GRC                                                    1886
          Other (Space Act, etc.)
                              Partnerships (included within Distribution)
          NASA Contributions             GRC                                                    50
          Other Contributions            AFRL                                                   296

2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                        4/13/05   8
                           Subsystem Technology Example

       • Power Subsystem
              – Power subsystem modeling
              – Power subsystem testing
              – Power Generation - Photovoltaics
                   •   Solar cell development
                   •   Lightweight array technology
                   •   Inflatable structures
                   •   Array deployment
              – Energy Storage
                   • Batteries
                   • Flywheels
              – Power Management and Distribution
                   •   High-temperature electronics
                   •   High-rad parts
                   •   Packaging
                   •   Component technology – power control unit


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                               4/13/05   9
                            Component/Single Task Estimating
                        (Using the NASA Technology Inventory Database)
       •    Power Subsystem
              – Power Generation - Photovoltaics
                 • Lightweight array technology
              TASK ID          Task Name                         1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004
               1448      Advanced, High Efficiency     $K Plan   $750
                           Solar Cell and Array         TRL        3
                               Technology             FTE Plan    10
               1450       Advanced Thin Film Solar     $K Plan   $400
                           Cell and Ultralight Array    TRL        2
                                  Technology          FTE Plan    6.6
               2250       Advanced High Efficiency     $K Plan          $863
                              Solar Cell and Array      TRL               2
                              Technology (Power       FTE Plan          11.2
                                  Generation)          $K Plan          $775
               2251       Advanced Thin Film Solar
                          Cell and Ultra-Lightweight    TRL               2
                          Array Technology (Power     FTE Plan           7.4
                                  Generation)          $K Plan                 $720   $535   $500   $500
               5826      Adv, High Efficiency Solar
                        Cell & Array Technology     TRL                     2      n/a     3      4
                                                      FTE Plan                  0      4.7    5.1    3.3
               5827     Adv Thin Film Solar Cell and $K Plan                   $690   $750   $500   $544   $515
                            Ultra-Light Array Tech      TRL                     2      n/a     1      1      2
                                                      FTE Plan                  0       1      1     1.8     2
               6893      40% Efficient Solar Cell for  $K Plan                        $502   $472   $433
                              Concentrator Arrays       TRL                            n/a     2      2
                                                      FTE Plan                         0.1    0.2    0.1
               6895          Ultra-light, Ultra-high-  $K Plan                        $687   $883   $124
                        efficiency Solar Concentrator   TRL                            n/a     4      5
                           Arrays for Space Power     FTE Plan                         1.9    0.2    0.3


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                              4/13/05   10
                           Assembly/Multi-Task Estimating
                      (Using the NASA Technology Inventory Database)
       •    Power Subsystem
              – Energy Storage
                 • Flywheels – component technology, rim technology, bearing technology,
                   increased reliability, use studies
                           TASK ID           Task Name                          1998     1999     2000     2001     2002     2003     2004

                            1916         Aerospace Flywheel           $K Plan   $1,265
                                             Technology                TRL         4
                                                                     FTE Plan     9.5
                            3996        ACESE Flywheel Energy         $K Plan            $4,000   $7,800
                                       Storage Demonstration on        TRL                  4        4
                                                    ISS              FTE Plan              15       32
                            5081      Attitude Control for Satellite  $K Plan                       $70
                                       Flywheel Energy Storage         TRL                           2
                                                 Systems             FTE Plan                        0
                            5832           Aerospace Flywheel         $K Plan                      $990    $1,250   $1,200   $1,300   $2,533
                                               Technology              TRL                           2       n/a       4        4        4
                                                                     FTE Plan                        0        9       8.5       9       8.5
                            6508        Flywheel Energy Storage       $K Plan                                $70
                                         System for Small- and         TRL                                   n/a
                                        Medium-Size Spacecraft       FTE Plan                                 0
                            6930      Integrated Composite Arbor      $K Plan                               $421    $222     $460
                                            and Flywheel Rim           TRL                                   n/a      2        3
                                       Technology Development        FTE Plan                                 0      0.1      0.1
                            7196       New concepts in low cost,      $K Plan                                $60     $50
                                        higher reliability and less    TRL                                   n/a      3
                                       complex flywheel systems      FTE Plan                                0.4      0
                            6910             Demonstration of         $K Plan                               $699    $677     $1,069
                                     Coordinated Momentum and          TRL                                   n/a      3         3
                                       Energy Transfer (COMET)       FTE Plan                                 0      0.2       1.2
                                             using Flywheels          $K Plan                               $394    $320      $210     $12
                            6914       Low Power Loss, Fail Safe
                                       Magnetic Suspensions for        TRL                                   n/a      3         4       4
                                     Energy Storage and Attitude FTE Plan                                     0      0.2       0.5      0
                                            Control Flywheels                                                                         $100
                            10096    Hubless Flywheel with Null-E $K Plan
                                            Magnetic Bearings          TRL                                                              2
                                                                     FTE Plan                                                           0
                            10226    Self-Bearing Motor-Generator $K Plan                                                              $70
                                              for Flywheels            TRL                                                              2
                                                                     FTE Plan                                                           0

2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                                           4/13/05   11
                              Functional Task Estimating

       • Facility Testing
              – GRC facility testing is documented in Project Summary
                Reports
                   • Reports for multiple projects available for certain facilities (9X15,
                     10X10, 8X6, & 1X1)
                   • Description of test installation available to determine complexity
                   • Test statistics – planned/actual # of runs and run time, facility
                     occupancy time, schedules
                   • Resources – Labor hours by org., power usage, some
                     purchases
                   • Question: Can the data be parametrically modeled?




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                 4/13/05   12
           Measuring Complexity of the Test Installation

       • Assigned a complexity weight to each facility system
              – Sum of all facility system weights equals 1.00 or 100% without
                considering test complexity
              – Facility system weights provided by facilities personnel
       • Calculated the test setup complexity
              – Multiplied the system weights times a complexity factor associated
                with the planned use of the facility system for the current test as
                compared to past tests: 0-Not Used, 1-Less Complex, 2-Average,
                3-More Complex
              – Historical project complexity factors determined by facilities
                personnel




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                             4/13/05   13
                    Document Test Complexity (9X15 Example)                                                      A llis o n
                                                                                                               U ltra -H ig h                                 P&W              JSF
                                                                                 CM PLX             GE          B yp a s s      GE UPS                       E je c to r   S u b s o n ic   STOVL          JSF Low
                                                                                 W e ig h t     F a n /O G V   R a tio F a n     Fan      H S R N o z z le   N o z z le       In le t       2 D In le t   S p e e d In le t
     F a c ility S u p p o rt S ys te m s
                M o d e l S u p p o rt S ys te m s
                           M o d e l P re p a ra tio n B u ild in g                    0 .0 2        1               1             1             1               1               1              1                1
                           M o d e l In te g ra te d S u p p o rt S ys te m            0 .0 8        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           G ro u n d P la n e                                         0 .0 8        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           E x h a u s t S u p p o rt S ys te m                        0 .0 3        0               0             0             0               0               2              0                2
                           T u rn ta b le P e d e s ta l M o u n t S ys te m s         0 .0 3        2               2             3             0               0               1              2                1
                           In le t P re s s u re B le e d A ir S ys te m               0 .0 3        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           In le t V a c u u m B le e d A ir S ys te m                 0 .0 3        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           U H B D rive R ig                                           0 .0 7        3               3             3             0               0               0              0                0
                           R o ta tin g R a k e S ys te m                              0 .0 3        3               3             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           J e t E x it R ig                                           0 .0 4        0               0             0             2               2               0              0                0
                A ir P re s s u re S ys te m s
                           H ig h P re s s u re A ir                                   0 .0 2        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           S e rvic e A ir                                             0 .0 1        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           C o m b u s tio n A ir                                      0 .0 3        2               2             2             2               2               0              0                0
                H yd ra u lic S ys te m                                                0 .0 2        2               2             2             1               1               1              1                1
                N itro g e n S ys te m                                                 0 .0 2        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                G a s e o u s H yd ro g e n S ys te m                                  0 .0 8        0               0             0             3               0               0              0                0
                In fra re d S ys te m                                                  0 .0 2        0               0             0             2               0               0              0                0
                L a s e r-D o p p le r V e lo c im e te r (L D V ) S ys te m           0 .0 2        2               2             0             0               0               0              0                0
                L a s e r S h e e t (F lo w V is u a liza tio n ) S ys te m            0 .0 2        0               0             0             2               0               0              0                0
                F o rc e B a la n c e S ys te m                                        0 .0 4        2               2             0             3               0               0              0                0
                A ltitu d e E x h a u s t S ys te m                                    0 .0 3        0               0             0             0               0               2              2                2
                P h o to g ra p h ic S ys te m                                         0 .0 1        1               1             1             1               1               1              1                1
                N e w o r E x te rn a lly S u p p lie d S ys te m s                    0 .0 5        1               0             3             3               2               2              2                1
                In s tru m e n ta tio n
                           T h e rm o c o u p le s                                     0 .0 2        2               2             2             2               2               1              1                1
                           A c tu a to rs & P o s itio n In d ic a to rs               0 .0 1        1               1             1             2               1               1              1                1
                           M ic ro p h o n e s                                         0 .0 2        2               2             2             2               2               0              0                0
                D a ta A c q u is tio n & P ro c e s s in g
                           E S P S ys te m                                             0 .0 3        2               2             2             2               2               2              2                2
                           E s c o rt D                                                0 .0 3        3               3             3             3               2               2              2                2
                           C e n tra l A n a lo g R e c o rd e r                       0 .0 2        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           T R A D A R -3                                              0 .0 2        0               0             0             0               0               0              0                0
                           T ra n s ie n t D a ta A c q u is itio n S ys te m          0 .0 2        2               2             2             2               0               2              0                2
                           F a c ility T a p e R e c o rd e rs                         0 .0 2        2               2             2             2               0               2              0                2
     W e ig h te d T e s t S c o re                                                1 .0 0          0 .9 8          0 .9 3        0 .9 0        1 .1 1          0 .5 0          0 .5 3         0 .4 2           0 .4 8


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                                                                                                        4/13/05           14
                    Collect Historical Test Data (9X15 Example)
                                                                                                A llis o n
                                                                                              U ltra -H ig h                                        P&W                JSF
                                                                                GE             B yp a s s        GE UPS                            E je c to r     S u b s o n ic   STOVL             JSF Low
                                                                            F a n /O G V      R a tio F a n       Fan           H S R N o z z le   N o z z le         In le t       2 D In le t     S p e e d In le t
    R e s o u rc e R e q u ire m e n ts
              T o ta l L a b o r H o u rs                                         55346              27936          30476               24357          13076              5205          15553               9 2 1 8 .7
              C ivil S e rva n t L a b o r H o u rs                               49960              27936          26804               24357          13076              3199          15553               6 9 2 4 .5
                          P ro je c t O ffic e (P )                                       0                  0              0                  0               7              22               0                     0
                          R e s e a rc h C u s to m e r (R )                        3745               2736           5958               4346            5816               300          3521                    326
                          C o m p u tin g S c ie n c e D ivis io n (V C )             596                540                0              898             314                81           506                1 1 6 .5
                          T e s t E n g in e e rin g (D R )                         4418               5958           5868               5216            2348             1034           2555                  2006
                          T e s t T e c h n ic ia n (D R )                        15435              12420          14508                9586            3161             1762           5391                  2932
                          E n g in e e rin g (D D /D S )                            4844                 882                0            1192              400                  0          148                   397
                          F a b ric a tio n (D D M /P )                             9640               3240             470              1329              237                  0        1425                    391
                          C e n tra l T e s t O p e ra tio n s (D F )             11282                2160                 0            1790              793                  0        2007                    756
              P B C L a b o r H o u rs                                              5386                     0        3672                     0               0          2006                 0            2 2 9 4 .2
                          P ro je c t O ffic e (P )                                       0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                     0
                          R e s e a rc h C u s to m e r (R )                              0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                     0
                          C o m p u tin g S c ie n c e D ivis io n (V C )                 0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                     0
                          T e s t E n g in e e rin g (D R )                         3112                     0              0                  0               0          1056                 0              9 6 0 .5
                          T e s t T e c h n ic ia n (D R )                          2274                     0        3672                     0               0            950                0              7 6 1 .7
                          E n g in e e rin g (D D /D S )                                  0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                     0
                          F a b ric a tio n (D D M /P )                                   0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                     0
                          C e n tra l T e s t O p e ra tio n s (D F )                     0                  0              0                  0               0                0              0                 572
              P u rc h a s e s (K $ )                                         $ 1 ,0 4 0 .2      $ 3 ,4 9 0 .0     $ 3 0 0 .0             $ 0 .0        $ 5 0 .1         $ 1 0 .0       $ 8 0 .4              $ 2 7 .0
                          M o d e l H a rd w a re                                $ 6 9 1 .2      $ 3 ,3 0 0 .0         $ 0 .0             $ 0 .0          $ 0 .0           $ 0 .0         $ 0 .0                $ 0 .0
                          M o d e l D e s ig n /D ra ftin g                          $ 0 .0             $ 0 .0         $ 0 .0             $ 0 .0          $ 0 .0           $ 0 .0         $ 0 .0                $ 0 .0
                          In s tru m e n ta tio n                                $ 1 4 0 .2             $ 0 .0       $ 7 4 .0             $ 0 .0          $ 0 .0           $ 0 .0         $ 0 .0                $ 0 .0
                          F a c ility H a rd w a re                                $ 9 8 .6         $ 1 2 0 .0     $ 1 9 0 .0             $ 0 .0          $ 0 .0           $ 0 .0         $ 0 .0                $ 0 .0
                          O th e r                                               $ 1 1 0 .2           $ 7 0 .0       $ 3 6 .0             $ 0 .0        $ 5 0 .1         $ 1 0 .0       $ 8 0 .4              $ 2 7 .0
              F is c a l Y e a r D o lla rs                                         1999               1996           1994               1991            1989             2003           1988                  1997




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                                                                                              4/13/05                15
               Collect Historical Test Data (9X15 Example)
                                                                Allison
                                                               Ultra-High                               P&W            JSF
                                                    GE          Bypass       GE UPS                    Ejector       Subsonic    STOVL        JSF Low
                                                  Fan/OGV      Ratio Fan      Fan        HSR Nozzle    Nozzle          Inlet     2D Inlet    Speed Inlet
     Schedule Summary
             Planned
                     Work Plan Completed            Feb-99        Apr-95       Jun-93        Jul-90                    Oct-02      Oct-87          Mar-97
                     Model Installation Started     Mar-99        Nov-95       Feb-94       May-91                     Nov-02                       Jul-97
                     Testing Started                May-99        Dec-95       Apr-94       Jun-91       Jul-89        Dec-02     Feb-89           Aug-97
                     Activity Complete              Mar-00        Jun-96       Aug-94       Dec-91                     Jan-03     May-89           Aug-97
                     Total Duration (months)            13            14           14            17              0          3         19                 5
             Actual
                     Work Plan Completed            Mar-99        May-95        Jul-93        Jul-90                   Oct-02      Oct-87          Apr-97
                     Model Installation Started     Jun-99        Mar-96       Feb-94        Jun-91                    Nov-02                       Jul-97
                     Testing Started                 Jul-99       Apr-96       Apr-94        Aug-91      Jul-89        Dec-02     Feb-89           Aug-97
                     Activity Complete              May-00        Sep-96       Aug-94        Feb-92                    Jan-03     May-89           Aug-97
                     Total Duration (months)             14           16            13            19             0          3         19                 4
     Facility Utilization
             Facility Occupation Time (months)         11.0           6.0         6.0           6.0         3.0           2.0          4.0               1.0
             Scheduled
                     Test Runs                                         58          53                       38             20          38                16
                     Test Hours                                       572                                  227            191         210               217
             Actual
                     Test Runs                         192             42          34                        19            17          24                 16
                     Test Hours                        715            387         173                        75            93          68               124
             Test Hour Variance                       715           (185)        173              0       (152)          (98)       (142)               (93)
     Consumables
             Mach Range                                 0-.1          0-.1        0-.2         .1-.2                      0-.2        0-.2               0-.2
             Test Power Usage (MW)                   16294           4852        5500         4514         2521          2824        2647               4100
                     Peak                              50%           50%         50%           50%         50%           58%         50%                50%
                     Off-Peak                          50%           50%         50%           50%         50%           42%         50%                50%
             Average Power/Test Hour (MWH)            22.79         12.54       31.79     #DIV/0!         33.61         30.37       38.93              33.06
             Fuel Consumption                              0             0           0             0          0              0           0                  0
     Total Labor Breakdown
             % Engineering                            30%            36%         39%           48%         68%           48%         43%                41%
             % Technician                             70%            64%         61%           52%         32%           52%         57%                59%



2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                                         4/13/05            16
                                 Using the Available Data

       • Identified desired dependent variables
              – Labor Hours
              – Megawatt Hours
              – Facility Occupancy
       • Identified independent variables that provide the best
         predictive results within the range of the data in the
         database




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                        4/13/05   17
                                   Independent Variables
                                           Labor Hour Prediction
                                       Facility
                                                  9 X 15   10 X 10   8X6   1X1
                 Variable
                 CMPLX Factor                                        P
                 Occupancy Time                     P        P       P     P
                 Test Runs                          P                      P
                 Test Hours                                  P       P

                                        Megawatt Hour Prediction
                 CMPLX Factor                       P                P
                 Occupancy Time                                            P
                 Test Runs
                 Test Hours                         P        P       P     P

                                       Occupancy Month Prediction
                 CMPLX Factor                       P        P       P
                 Test Runs                          P        P       P     P
                 Test Hours                         P
2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                             4/13/05   18
                                                     Test Facility Survey

       • Request selected test planning data

                                        9 X 1 5 L o w S p e e d W in d T u n n e l T e s t R e s o u rc e s
      R e q u ire d F ie ld s

      W B S /P ro je c t:

      M o d e l T yp e :                                                                             P a id fo r b y P ro je c t
      M ach R ange:                                                                               M od el D esig n          M od el F ab

      P la n n e d T e s t R u n s :                                                              M od el M od s           O ther

      P la n n e d T e s t H o u rs :                                                              D e s c rib e O th e r E x p e n s e s

      O c c u p a n c y (m /y-m /y):

      M odel M ods:

      F a c ility M o d s :




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                               4/13/05   19
                                              Test Facility Survey
       • Request test setup data based on use of facility
         systems identified in the facility user manual
                                   T u n n e l R e s o u rc e s (C h e c k a ll th a t a p p ly)
                                   M o d e l S u p p o rt S ys te m s                                                         U sed           C o m p le x ity
                                                M o d e l P re p a ra tio n B u ild in g                                              Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                M o d e l In te g ra te d S u p p o rt S ys te m                                      Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                G ro u n d P la n e                                                                   Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                E x h a u s t S u p p o rt S ys te m                                                  Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                T u rn ta b le P e d e s ta l M o u n t S ys te m s                                   Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                In le t P re s s u re B le e d A ir S ys te m                                         Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                In le t V a c u u m B le e d A ir S ys te m                                           Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                U H B D rive R ig                                                                     Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                R o ta tin g R a k e S ys te m                                                        Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                J e t E x it R ig                                                                     Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   Air P re s s u re S ys te m s
                                                H ig h P re s s u re A ir                                                             Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                S e rvic e A ir                                                                       Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                C o m b u s tio n A ir                                                                Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   H yd ra u lic S ys te m                                                                            Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   N itro g e n S ys te m                                                                             Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   G a s e o u s H yd ro g e n S ys te m                                                              Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   In fra re d S ys te m                                                                              Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   L a s e r-D o p p le r V e lo c im e te r (L D V ) S ys te m                                       Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   L a s e r S h e e t (F lo w V is u a liz a tio n ) S ys te m                                       Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   F o rc e B a la n c e S ys te m                                                                    Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   Altitu d e E x h a u s t S ys te m                                                                 Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   P h o to g ra p h ic S ys te m                                                                     Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   E x te rn a lly S u p p lie d S ys te m s                                                          Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                L is t:
                                   In s tru m e n ta tio n
                                                T h e rm o c o u p le s (e s tim a te d q u a n tity)                                 Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                A c tu a to rs & P o s itio n In d ic a to rs (e s tim a te d q u a n tity)           Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                M ic ro p h o n e s                                                                   Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                   D a ta Ac q u is tio n & P ro c e s s in g
                                                E le c tro n ic a lly S c a n n e d P re s s u re (E S P ) S ys te m                  Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                E s c o rt D P lu s                                                                   Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                D yn a m ic D a ta A c q u is tio n
                                                                    C e n tra l A n a lo g R e c o rd e r                             Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                                    T R A D A R -3                                                    Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                                    T ra n s ie n t D a ta A c q u is itio n S ys te m                Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore

                                                                    F a c ility T a p e R e c o rd e rs                               Le ss      A ve ra g e     M ore


2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                                                                                                                     4/13/05   20
                                       Model Inputs




2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                  4/13/05   21
                                         Model Outputs
                       Predicted Labor Requirements        Results
                       Estimated Labor Hours               55,459
                               Civil Servant Labor Hours
                       Project Office (P)                    120
                       Research Customer (R)                7,359
                       Computing Science Division (VC)      1,038
                       Test Engineering (DR)                8,964
                       Test Technician (DR)                19,500
                       Engineering (DD/DS)                  2,343
                       Fabrication (DDM/P)                  5,655
                       Central Test Operations (DF)         5,683
                                    PBC Labor Hours
                       Direct PBC                             0
                       Test Engineering                     2,275
                       Test Technicians                     2,521
                       Fabrication                            0
                       Predicted Test Requirements         Results
                       Estimated Power (MWH)               16,380
                       Estimated Occupancy (Months)         11.22



2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                                 4/13/05   22
          Next Steps – Technology Inventory Database
       • Recommend advocating at HQs to use it as the
         technology side of the ONCE database – currently under
         Exploration Systems – decision for future direction to be
         issued in May
       • Define a formal, top-down approach to ensure all
         technology tasks are included
       • Coordinate with ESMD to change input requirements to
         incorporate actual versus planned data, ensure all and
         only needed data is collected, and minimize the task
         manager’s work to input the data
       • Develop multi-year reporting capability to include desired
         fields
       • Current POCs: Doug Craig/HQ, Mary Reph/GSFC (301)
         286-1917
2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                             4/13/05   23
                            Next Steps – In-House Tools

       • Continue to ‘tweak’ the test model to incorporate
         recommended changes/enhancements.
       • Model, as configured, uses planned Occupancy, Test
         Runs and Test Hours for resource calculations.
         Based on historical changes in plans, develop
         expected numbers for all three factors to use to get a
         potential range.
       • Collect more test article procurement costs and
         technical data to enable cost estimation of the
         hardware/software.
       • Work other ‘low hanging fruit’ – groupings of
         technology tasks with easily obtainable data - as it is
         identified.

2005 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium
Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field                        4/13/05   24