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Mackay Regional Seminar_ Presentation 2 of 2

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					Recent information releases and the 2008 edition projections
Alison Taylor Principal Demographer Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Infrastructure and Planning

Mackay regional seminar, 14 March 2008

PIFU 2008

Outline
Recently released and forthcoming data Selected 2006 Census results 2008 edition population projections

PIFU 2008

Data releases
Recently released data
– Population trends (Pop updates 10, 11 and 12) – Bowen Basin 2007 population report

Forthcoming releases
– 2006 Census fact sheets – 2006 demographic profiles

2008 edition population projections
– State and Statistical Division – mid-year – New Local Government Areas – July/August
PIFU 2008

Recent population releases
Population update no. 12
– June 2007 estimates for Queensland

Population update no. 11
– June 2006 estimates for the new councils

Population update no. 10
– June 2006 estimates for existing councils

All based on 2006 Census – previous figures now revised
PIFU 2008

Bowen Basin population report, 2007

PIFU 2008

The ERP concept
Estimates of the resident population (ERPs) are produced for 30 June each year Based on standard indicators of dwelling approvals, medicare and school enrolments Does not include all population growth particularly workers who might be long term stayers

PIFU 2008

The FTE concept
Full time equivalent population consists of
– Resident population at given point in time – Medium-long term non-residents (FIFO/DIDO workers)

Excludes
– Short term visitors including tourists – Short-term itinerants (eg seasonal workers)

PIFU 2008

FTE population for Bowen Basin June 2007
Population component Resident population (at 30 June 2007)* Non-resident population in June 2007** Full-time Equivalent Population, end June 2007 Bowen Basin 78,228 11,075

89,303

Non resident workers in the Bowen Basin in 2006 numbered 10,763. This represented 25% of the total number of jobs in the area (43,670).
Sources: * PIFU, unpublished **PIFU, Survey of Accommodation Providers 2007 (unpublished).

PIFU 2008

Distribution of non-resident workers
LGA Nebo Broadsound Belyando Banana Duaringa Emerald Peak Downs Bowen Bauhinia Non resident workers 2,868 2,448 1,881 1,278 1,028 636 623 248 65
Source: Qld Govt, Bowen Basin population report, 2007

% of NRW in Bowen Basin 25.9% 22.1% 17% 11.5% 11.5% 5.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6%
PIFU 2008

Where were they living?
83% in single person quarters (over 90% in Bauhinia, Broadsound, Duaringa and Nebo)

9% in caravan parks (22% in Emerald and Bowen) 6% in hotels/motels (29% in Bowen) 2% other Very similar distribution to the 2006 survey
Source: Qld Govt, Bowen Basin population report, 2007 PIFU 2008

Applying FTEs to planning
Residents and non-residents have different characteristics and needs Some services relevant to all of FTE, others more applicable to resident component Need to differentiate service needs and demand for infrastructure for both components Not able to project FTEs with accuracy – need information from companies and Council

Source: Qld Govt, Bowen Basin population report, 2007

PIFU 2008

Notes on FTE population measure
FTE doesn’t replace ABS estimated resident population but fills in knowledge gap on nonresident numbers Non-resident numbers are volatile - influenced by production requirements, maintenance, weather etc FTEs should be updated along with resident population – Survey conducted annually to get time series data
Source: Qld Govt, Bowen Basin population report, 2007

PIFU 2008

Selected 2006 Census results

PIFU 2008

Technical stuff
Currency – Census held every 5 years Coverage – did you get a Census form? Was it collected? Undercount – 3.7% for Qld but 5.1% outside Brisbane Accuracy – issues with literacy, numeracy, homelessness Access – more info freely available Interpretation – definitional changes, not stated, not classified
PIFU 2008

Age structure 2006
30.0% 25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Mackay (R) Whitsunday (R) Isaac (R)

% of the population under 15

% of the population over 65
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Census 2006

59
100 200 300 400 500 600 0

inflow outflow

Interstate in and out flows 2001 - 2006, Mackay City

Source: ABS Census 2006 PIFU 2008

ye 10 ar -1 s 4 ye 15 ar -1 s 9 ye 20 ar s -2 4 ye 25 ar -2 s 9 ye 30 ar s -3 4 ye 35 ar -3 s 9 ye 40 ar s -4 4 ye 45 ar -4 s 9 ye 50 ar -5 s 4 ye 55 ar s -5 9 ye 60 ar -6 s 4 ye 65 ar s -6 9 ye 70 ar -7 s 4 ye 75 ar s -7 9 ye 80 ar -8 s 4 ye ar 85 s + ye ar s

Net interstate migration 2001 2006, Mackay City
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
ye 10 ar s -1 4 ye 15 ar s -1 9 ye ar 20 s -2 4 ye 25 ar s -2 9 ye ar 30 s -3 4 ye 35 ar s -3 9 ye 40 ar s -4 4 ye 45 ar s -4 9 ye 50 ar s -5 4 ye 55 ar s -5 9 ye 60 ar s -6 4 ye ar 65 s -6 9 ye 70 ar s -7 4 ye ar 75 s -7 9 ye 80 ar s -8 4 ye ar s 85 + ye ar s

Total net interstate gain = = 477 Total net interstate gain 2,618

59

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Net interstate migration 2001 2006, Whitsunday Shire
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50

Total net interstate gain = 721 Total net interstate gain = 988

ye ar 10 s -1 4 ye ar 15 s -1 9 ye ar 20 s -2 4 ye ar 25 s -2 9 ye ar 30 s -3 4 ye ar 35 s -3 9 ye ar 40 s -4 4 ye ar 45 s -4 9 ye ar 50 s -5 4 ye ar 55 s -5 9 ye ar 60 s -6 4 ye ar 65 s -6 9 ye ar 70 s -7 4 ye ar 75 s -7 9 ye ar 80 s -8 4 ye ar s 85 + ye ar s

5-

9

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

1000

1200

1400

1600

59

200

400

600

800

0

inflow outflow

Intrastate in and out flows 2001 2006, Mackay City

Source: ABS Census 2006 PIFU 2008

ye 10 ar -1 s 4 ye 15 ar -1 s 9 ye 20 ar -2 s 4 ye 25 ar s -2 9 ye 30 ar -3 s 4 ye 35 ar -3 s 9 ye 40 ar -4 s 4 ye 45 ar -4 s 9 ye 50 ar -5 s 4 ye 55 ar -5 s 9 ye 60 ar -6 s 4 ye 65 ar -6 s 9 ye 70 ar -7 s 4 ye 75 ar -7 s 9 ye 80 ar -8 s 4 ye 85 ars + ye ar s

59

-100 100 200 300 400 500 0

Net intrastate migration 2001 2006, Mackay City

Source: ABS Census 2006 PIFU 2008

ye 10 ar s -1 4 ye 15 ar s -1 9 ye 20 ar s -2 4 ye 25 ar s -2 9 ye 30 ar s -3 4 ye 35 ar s -3 9 ye 40 ar s -4 4 ye 45 ar s -4 9 ye 50 ar s -5 4 ye 55 ar s -5 9 ye 60 ar s -6 4 ye 65 ar s -6 9 ye 70 ar s -7 4 ye 75 ar s -7 9 ye 80 ar s -8 4 ye ar 85 s + ye ar s

Total net intrastate loss = 369 Total net intrastate gain = 2,766

Net intrastate migration 2001 2006, Whitsunday Shire
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100
ye 10 ar s -1 4 ye ar 15 s -1 9 ye ar 20 s -2 4 ye 25 ar s -2 9 ye ar 30 s -3 4 ye ar 35 s -3 9 ye ar 40 s -4 4 ye ar 45 s -4 9 ye ar 50 s -5 4 ye ar 55 s -5 9 ye ar 60 s -6 4 ye ar 65 s -6 9 ye 70 ar s -7 4 ye ar 75 s -7 9 ye ar 80 s -8 4 ye ar s 85 + ye ar s

Total net intrastate gain = 1,568 Total net interstate loss = 373

59

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

100

150

200

250

300

50

0

Mackay Whitsunday

Overseas in-flow, 2001 to 2006

Source: ABS Census 2006 PIFU 2008

510 9 y -1 ea 15 4 y rs -1 ea r 20 9 ye s -2 ar 25 4 y s -2 ea r 30 9 y s -3 ea r 35 4 y s -3 ea r 40 9 y s -4 ea r 45 4 ye s -4 ar 50 9 y s -5 ea r 55 4 y s -5 ea r 60 9 y s -6 ea r 65 4 y s -6 ea r 70 9 y s -7 ea r 75 4 ye s -7 ar 80 9 y s -8 ea 4 rs 85 yea + rs ye ar s

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Sarina Mirani

Overseas in-flow, 2001 to 2006

Source: ABS Census 2006 PIFU 2008

510 9 y -1 ea 15 4 y rs -1 ea 20 9 y rs -2 ea 25 4 y rs -2 ea 30 9 y rs -3 ea 35 4 y rs -3 ea 40 9 y rs -4 ea 45 4 y rs -4 ea 50 9 y rs -5 ea 55 4 y rs -5 ea 60 9 y rs -6 ea 65 4 y rs -6 ea 70 9 y rs -7 ea 75 4 y rs -7 ea 80 9 y rs -8 ea 4 rs 85 ye + ars ye ar s

Participation in training - Qld
Total enrolments at TAFE increased from 61,500 to 68,400 over decade to 2006 But, reflecting the buoyant jobs market, the number of full-time students declined while part-time increased

Source: ABS, T13, Census of Population and Housing

PIFU 2008

Participation in training - Qld

The last 5 years saw an increase in younger (15-24) part-time students only Mostly males (up 2,000 compared with females up 700) Are we providing the right training for our current and future skills requirements?
Source: ABS, T13, Census of Population and Housing

PIFU 2008

Participation in university
• Total enrolments at Qld Unis increased •
from 114,000 to 138,000 1996 - 2006 In contrast to TAFE, the number of full-time students increased while part-time declined

Source: ABS, T13, Census of Population and Housing

PIFU 2008

Change in non-school qualification Qld 1996 - 2006
15.0% 10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

-15.0% Postgraduate Degree Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate Bachelor Degree Advanced Diploma and Diploma Certificate:

1996-2001

2001-2006

Source: ABS, 2006 Census Time Series Profile

PIFU 2008

Improvement in incomes - Qld
1996 $ per week 286 702 597 2001 $ per week 359 2006 Increase $ per 1996-2006 week 474 66% (60% Aust)

Median individual Median family Median household

64% (59% Aust) 749 1,031 73% (66% Aust) 871 1,154
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS, T02, Census of Population and Housing

Queensland’s comparative improvement in incomes 19962006
$350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 NSW Vic QLD SA WA Tas NT ACT
Source: ABS, T02, Census of Population and Housing

Change in individual income per week 1996-2006

Australia $188 $174

ACT and NT have consistently had the highest incomes over the last decade. ACT individual incomes increased by 68% since 1996, while Qld incomes increased by 66%. Qld had highest % increase in Household incomes of any state in last 10 years (73%).

PIFU 2008

Median Weekly Income - Legend: $700 - $1,020 per week $500 - $700 per week $250 - $500 per week $0 - $250 per week

Queensland’s highest individual incomes are found in mining and agricultural communities, key regional cities and Brisbane. Weipa – $1,013/week Nebo – $809/week Brisbane - $556/week Gold Coast - $476/wk

Inset 1
Napranum ( Napranum (S Weipa (T) Weipa (T)

150

0

150

300

Kilometres

Aurukun (S) (S) Aurukun (S)

Douglas (S) Douglas (S) Cairns (C) Cairns (C)

Burke (S) Burke (S)

Thuringowa (C) Thuringowa (C) Townsville (C) Townsville (C)

Mount Isa (C) Mount Isa (C)

Whitsunday (S) Whitsunday (S) Mackay (C) Mackay (C) Broadsound (S) Broadsound (S)

0

Cloncurry (S) Cloncurry (S)

Nebo (S) (S) Nebo (S) Belyando (S) Belyando (S)

Boulia (S) Boulia (S)

Longreach (S) Longreach (S) Peak Downs (S) Peak Downs (S) Gladstone (C) Gladstone (C) Emerald (S) Emerald (S)

Diamantina (S) Diamantina (S) Barcoo (S) Barcoo (S)

Duaringa (S) Duaringa (S) Bauhinia (S) Bauhinia (S) Bungil (S) Bungil (S) Pine Rivers (S) Pine Rivers (S)

Bulloo (S) Bulloo (S)

Waggamba (S) Waggamba (S)

Brisbane (C) Brisbane (C)

PIFU 2008

Median individual income
$800 $722 $700 $600

Qld median $476
$499 $511 $493

$500 $433 $400

$300

$200

$100

$0 Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Mackay (R) Whitsunday (R) Isaac (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Mortgage repayments rise
Median monthly home loan repayment in Qld = $1,300 (same as Australian figure) Up from $849 in 2001 and $808 in 1996
Repayments on monthly home loans in Queensland have increased by $451 since 2001. Over the same period, the increase Australia-wide has been only $433

Source: ABS, Quickstats, Census of Population and Housing

PIFU 2008

Brisbane has average home loan costs but is 38% lower than Sydney
Monthly housing loan repayment ($)

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
Sy dn ey M el bo ur ne Br is ba ne Ad el ai de Pe rth

Australia $1,300

Capital City SDs, 2006
Source: ABS, Quickstats, Census of Population and Housing

H ob ar t D ar w in C an be rra
PIFU 2008

Median home loan repayments
$1,400

Qld median $1,300
$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$0 Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Mackay (R) Whitsunday (R) Isaac (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Rents rise
Median weekly rent in Qld = $200 (Australian figure = $190) Up from $152 in 2001 and $132 in 1996
Weekly rents in Queensland have increased by $48 since 2001. Over the same period, the increase Australia-wide has been $49

Source: ABS, Quickstats, Census of Population and Housing

PIFU 2008

Brisbane rents 16% higher than the Australian average, but still 14% less than Sydney
300 250
Weekly rent ($)

$220

200 150 100 50 0
Sy dn ey M el bo ur ne Br isb an e Ad el ai de Pe rth

Australia $190

ob ar t

H

D

Capital City SDs, 2006
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS, Quickstats, Census of Population and Housing

Ca

nb er ra

ar w

in

$250

Median weekly rent
Qld median $200

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0 Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Mackay (R) Whitsunday (R) Isaac (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Household composition
40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Couple Family Without Children Couple One Parent Other Family Family With Family Children Lone Person Group Other Households Households

Rockhampton (R)

Gladstone (R)

Mackay (R)

Whitsunday (R)

Isaac (R)
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Census 2006

Dwelling structure
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Separate house Mackay (R) Semi-detached Whitsunday (R) Flat, unit Other Isaac (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Tenure type
50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Rockhampton (R) Gladstone (R) Fully Owned Mackay (R) Being Purchased Whitsunday (R) Rented Other Isaac (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

Change in tenure type 2001-06
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Fully Owned Being Purchased Gladstone (R) Mackay (R) Rented Whitsunday (R) Other Isaac (R)

Rockhampton (R)

Source: ABS Census 2006

PIFU 2008

-2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Agriculture, forestry & fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas, water & waste Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade 1996-2001 2001-2006 Education & training Health care & social assistance Arts & recreation services Other services Accommodation & food services Transport, postal & warehousing Information media & telecommunications Financial & insurance services Rental, hiring & real estate services Professional, scientific & technical Administrative & support services Public administration &
Big % increases in construction and health care and social assistance

-1.0%

Growth in mining jobs

Change in industry of employment in Queensland 1996 - 2006

Source: ABS, 2006 Census Time Series Profile

PIFU 2008

Mining jobs in the Bowen Basin
Total jobs Banana Bauhinia Belyando Bowen Broadsound Duaringa Emerald Nebo Peak Downs Bowen Basin 7,788 1,452 7,182 5,766 4,334 4,342 7,572 3,107 3,437 43,670 Mining jobs 1,660 226 3,383 722 2,149 1,303 1,092 1,728 1,968 14,231 % mining 21.3 15.6 47.1 12.5 49.6 30.0 14.4 55.6 57.3 32.6

Source: ABS Census 2006 unpublished

PIFU 2008

-1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

-0.5%

M an a ge rs

C om m un ity & pe rs on al ke rs se r vi ce w or ke rs C le ric al & ad m in . w or ke rs wo r tra de s &

Te ch ni cia ns

Pr of es si on al s

1996-2001
M ac hi n er y op e Sa le s

Change in occupation, Queensland

Source: ABS, 2006 Census Time Series Profile

2001-2006
ra to In ad e qu a te l y de sc rib ed

wo rk e rs

rs

&

dr iv er s La

bo ur er s /N ot

st at

ed

PIFU 2008

People working in Mackay Pt A
33,940 jobs in 2006 27,540 jobs filled by locals (81%) Top 3 source areas
– Mackay Pt B – 2,669 workers – Sarina – 1,391 workers – Mirani – 762 workers

Source: ABS Census 2006, unpublished

PIFU 2008

People working in Sarina
3,395 jobs in 2006 2,280 jobs filled by locals (67%) Top 3 source areas
– Mackay
Pt A – 747 workers Pt B - 102 workers (total of 849 from Mackay)

– Broadsound – 20 workers – Mirani – 18 workers

Source: ABS Census 2006, unpublished

PIFU 2008

Population Projections

PIFU 2008

Actual & projected population, Queensland, 1976 to 2051
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Million persons
Actual Projected
High Medium Low

19 76 19 81 19 86 19 91 19 96 20 01 20 06 20 11 20 16 20 21 20 26 20 31 20 36 20 41 20 46 20 51
Sources: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Qld Government Population Projections, 2006 (medium series) PIFU 2008

Queensland age by sex, 1986, 2006, 2026
100+

MALES

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

FEMALES

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1986

2006

2026
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS, Cat. No. 3201.0 and Queensland Government population projections, 2006 edition

Population Change 2001-2026
Very Large Increase: Greater than 100,000 persons Large Increase: 10,000 to 100,000 persons Moderate Increase: 1,000 to 10,000 persons Small Increase: 100-1,000 persons Stable: -100 to 100 persons Small Decrease: -100 to -1,000 persons (4) (23) (34) (28) (56) (13)

AURUK UN (S) AUR UKUN (S) AURUKU N

Source: Queensland Governement Projections M edium Series, 2006 Edition
C AIRNS (C) CAIRNS (C ) CAIR NS (C) MAR EEBA (S) MAREEBA (S) B URKE (S) BURK E (S) BU RKE CARDWELL (S) C AR DWELL (S) CARDWELL TOWNSVILLE (C) TOWN SVILLE (C) NGAROY (S) NGAR OY (S) MCKINLAY (S) MCK INLAY (S) MCKIN LAY FLINDERS (S) FLIND ER S (S) THURINGOWA (C) THU RINGOWA (C) THURINGOWA WHITSUNDAY (S) WH ITSUN DAY (S) MACKAY (C) MAC KAY (C) LIVIN GSTON E (S) LIVINGSTONE (S) C ROWS N EST (S) CROWS NEST (S) WIN TON (S) WINTON (S) LON GREACH (S) LONGREACH (S) LONGREAC H BLACKALL (S) BLAC KALL (S) GLADSTONE (C)) GLADSTONE (C ROSALIE (S) R OSALIE (S) CABOOLTU RE (S) CABOOLTURE (S) C AB OOLTURE PINE RIVERS (S) PINE RIVERS (S) REDLAN D (S) REDLAND (S) ESK (S) ESK (S) BRISBANE (C) B RISBANE (C) BRISB AN E LAID LEY (S) LAIDLEY (S) LOGAN (C) (C) LOGAN (C ) COOLOOLA (S) C OOLOOLA (S) NOOSA (S) N OOSA (S) MAROOCH Y (S) MAROOCHY (S) MAR OOCHY CALOUN DRA (C) CALOUNDRA (C ) CALOUND RA (C)

INSET INSET

TOOWOOMBA (C) IPSWICH (C)) TOOWOOMB A (C) IPSWICH (C TOOWOOMBA QUILPIE (S) QU ILPIE (S) QUILPIE

GOLD COAST (C) GOLD COAST (C) BOORINGA (S) BOOR INGA (S) BOORIN GA

REFER REFER INSET INSET

BEAUDESER T (S) BEAUDESERT (S) B EAUD ESERT

PAR OO (S) PAROO (S)

Source: Queensland Government LGA Projections, 2006 ed.

PIFU 2008

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

Ten largest growing LGAs outside SEQ

5,000 0
(C ) (C ) Bu rn et t( To S) ow oo m ba (C ) Ca llio pe (S )*
PIFU 2008

)

(S )*

(C )

(C )*

(C

a

rn s

Ba y

gs to ne

lle

ac ka y

in go w

Ca i

ns vi

He rv ey

Th ur

To w

M

in

* Indicates High Series

Li v

2006-2016

G la

2016-2026

ds to

ne

(C

)*

Past and future growth, Mackay SD
1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2016 (10 years) 2006-2026 (20 years)
Source: ABS various and Qld Govt 2006 edition population projections

Actual High series projection 6282 9,673 4,073 22,330 31,500 67,200
PIFU 2008

Past and projected growth
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Average annual change

19 86 -9 1

19 91 -9 6

19 96 -0 1

20 01 -0 6

Fitzroy

Mackay

Source: ABS various and Qld Govt 2006 edition population projections

20 0

616

(H ig h)
PIFU 2008

DEPARTMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNING PLANNING INFORMATION AND FORECASTING UNIT For specialist consultancy services in demographic analysis and forecasting, customised GIS applications and urban development monitoring.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
(07) 3237 1200 (Demography) (07) 3237 1254 (GIS) pifu@dlgpsr.qld.gov.au (e-mail) www.infrastructure.qld.gov.au/planning (web-site)

PIFU 2008


				
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