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Mackay Regional Seminar_ Presentation 1 of 2

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Mackay Regional Seminar_ Presentation 1 of 2 Powered By Docstoc
					Findings from the 2006 Census and Latest Population Trends for the Mackay Region
Ross Barker and Alison Taylor Director and Principal Demographer Planning Information and Forecasting Unit, Department of Infrastructure and Planning
Mackay, 12th March 2008

PIFU 2008

Outline
♦ Recent population trends – State, regional and local ♦ Residential land development trends ♦ Morning tea ♦ Recent information releases – Bowen Basin report – 2006 Census data ♦ 2008 edition population projections
PIFU 2008

Population Trends
State, Regional and Local

PIFU 2008

Proportion of Australia’s Population, by state and territory, June 2007
Northern Territory
1.0% 0.2m

Queensland
19.9% 4.2m SEQ 13.6% 2.8m

Western Australia
10.0% 2.1m

South Australia
7.5% 1.6m

New South Wales
32.8% 6.9m

ACT
1.6% 0.3m

Victoria
24.8% 5.2m
Source: ABS CAT No 3101.0

Tasmania
2.3% 0.5m
PIFU 2008

Rapid population growth
2001-2006 2006-2007

Northern Territory
1.0%

Northern Territory Queensland
35.9% SEQ 21.0% 1.4%

Queensland
28.7% SEQ 19.6%

Western Australia
12.3%

Western Australia
14.8%

South Australia
4.4%

New South Wales
18.8% 1.2%

South Australia
5.2%

New South Wales
22.8% 1.8%

ACT

ACT

Victoria
25.1%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No 3101.0

Tasmania
1.4%

Victoria
24.4%
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No 3101.0

Tasmania
1.1%

Source: ABS CAT No 3101.0

PIFU 2008

What is driving Queensland’s growth?
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -40,000 NSW VIC Natural Increase QLD Overseas Migration WA Bal of Aus.

Year ending 30th June 2007

Interstate Migration

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No.3101.0

PIFU 2008

Components of population change
year ending 30th June
100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3101.0 & unpublished data PIFU 2008

Year to June 2007 Net Interstate Migration: 27,010 Net Overseas Migration: 33,536 Natural Increase: 29,970

Average Annual 1971-2007
Interstate Migration Overseas Migration

Natural Increase

Net interstate migration gains to Queensland, 1998-2007
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 NSW 2003 VIC 2004 Bal. Aus
PIFU 2008

year ending 30 June

2005

2006

2007

Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No.3101.0

Age profile of interstate migration, Queensland, 2006-7
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 0-4 75+ 5-9

Arrivals

Departures

Net
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS, Migration Australia, Cat No 3412.0

Queensland has been getting about 640 people each week from overseas
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5.0% 0.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 30.0% 25.0%

19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06
QLD Net Overseas % Australia
PIFU 2008 Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No 3101.0

Regional Planning Areas
Regional ERP June Planning Project 2001 Area ERP June 2006 Average Annual Change 01-06

South East QLD Wide Bay-Burnett 2026 WhitsundayMackay Far North QLD CQ-ANM North QLD DDRPAC Bal. of QLD

2,374,606 232,008 137,539 201,662 186,611 190,266 198,458 77,199

2,706,297 263,932 159,869 223,693 206,431 209,588 214,937 74,439

66,338 6,385 4,466 4,406 3,964 3,864 3,296 -552

2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% -0.7%
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Cat No. 3218.0 and PIFU Estimates

Average Annual Population Change
25,000 20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fitzroy SD

Mackay SD

Northern SD

Far North SD
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Cat No. 3218.0

Average Annual Growth Rates
4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fitzroy SD

Mackay SD

Northern SD

Far North SD
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

10 largest growth LGAs in Regional QLD Average annual growth, 2001-2006
2001-2006 Rank LGA
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

No.
3,786 2,862 2,363 2,044 1,982 908 854 839 795 771

%
3.0 3.5 4.9 3.6 2.1 2.6 3.0 2.9 1.7 3.0
PIFU 2008

Cairns (C) Mackay (C) Hervey Bay (C) Thuringowa (C) Townsville (C) Cooloola (S) Livingstone (S) Gladstone (C) Bundaberg (C) Burnett (S)
Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

Average Annual Population Change
2001-2006 Local Government Areas

AURUKUN AURUKUN

Extreme Growth: 10,000 to 19,200 Large Growth: 5,000 to 10,000 Strong Growth: 1,000 to 5,000 Moderate Growth: 200 to 1,000 Small Growth: 0 to 200 Decrease: -200 to 0
Inset CAIRNS CAIRNS MAREEBA MAREEBA NOOSA NOOSA

BURKE BURKE TOWNSVILLE TOWNSVILLE THURINGOWA THURINGOWA MCKINLAY MCKINLAY WHITSUNDAY WHITSUNDAY MACKAY MACKAY CALOUNDRA CALOUNDRA MAROOCHY MAROOCHY

CABOOLTURE CABOOLTURE ARAMAC ARAMAC BELYANDO BELYANDO BELYANDO ROCKHAMPTON ROCKHAMPTON ROCKHAMPTON GLADSTONE GLADSTONE BANANA BANANA HERVEY BAY HERVEY BAY BRISBANE BRISBANE TOOWOOMBA TOOWOOMBA TOOWOOMBA IPSWICH IPSWICH REDLAND REDLAND LOGAN LOGAN LOGAN GOLD COAST GOLD COAST BOONAH BOONAH BOONAH BEAUDESERT BEAUDESERT BULLOO BULLOO BALONNE BALONNE PINE RIVERS PINE RIVERS PINE RIVERS

EMERALD EMERALD

DIAMANTINA DIAMANTINA DIAMANTINA

MURWEH MURWEH

TAROOM TAROOM

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

PIFU 2008

Whitsunday (S) Whitsunday (S)

Bowen (S) Bowen (S) Mackay (C) Mackay (C) Mirani (S) Mirani (S)

Nebo (S) Nebo (S)

Sarina (S) Sarina (S)

Belyando (S) Belyando (S) Broadsound (S) Broadsound (S)

PIFU 2008

Whitsunday Regional Council Whitsunday Regional Council

Mackay Regional Council Mackay Regional Council

Isaac Regional Council Isaac Regional Council

PIFU 2008

Population Change, WHAM Region New LGAs 2001-2006
2001 LGA
Mackay (R) Whitsunday (R) Isaac (R) WHAM Total

2006 No.
107,372 31,319 21,178 159,869

2001-2006 No.
3,258 678 531 4,466

No.
91,084 27,931 18,524 137,539

%
3.3% 2.3% 2.7% 3.1%

Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0 and PIFU Estimates

PIFU 2008

Ten Largest Urban Centres and Localities
UCL 2001 ERP 2006 ERP Population Average Annual Change Growth, 2001-2006

Mackay Bowen Moranbah Cannonvale Proserpine

58,977 7,488 6,281 3,220 3,287

71,198 7,944 7,628 4,300 3,550

12,221 456 1,347 1,080 263

3.8% 1.2% 4.0% 6.0% 1.6%
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Unpublished Data and PIFU Estimates

Ten Largest Urban Centres and Localities
UCL 2001 ERP 2006 ERP Population Average Annual Change Growth, 2001-2006

Sarina Airlie Beach Dysart Walkerston Middlemount

3,082 2,161 2,598 2,023 2,115

3,476 2,951 3,353 2,729 2,172

394 790 755 706 57

2.4% 6.4% 5.2% 6.2% 0.5%
PIFU 2008

Source: ABS Unpublished Data and PIFU Estimates

Population Change, 2001-2006
Census Collection Districts 250 to 500 100 to 250 25 to 100 0 to 25 -10 to 0
3 0 Kilometres 3 6

PIFU 2008

Residential Land Activity

PIFU 2008

Land in the Development Pipeline

Source: PIFU

PIFU 2008

Map of existing monitoring program
Gympie Regional Council Gympie Regional Council Gympie South Burnett South Burnett Burnett Regional Council Regional Council Somerset Somerset Somerset Regional Council Regional Council Tablelands Tablelands Tablelands Regional Council Regional Council Cairns Cairns Regional Council Regional Council Regional Toowoomba Toowoomba Regional Council Regional Council Regional Cassowary Coast Cassowary Coast Cassowary Regional Council Regional Council Townsville Townsville City Council Council City Council Whitsunday Whitsunday Whitsunday Regional Council Regional Council Mackay Mackay Regional Council Regional Council Rockhampton Rockhampton Regional Council Regional Council Regional Southern Downs Southern Downs Southern Downs Regional Council Regional Council Regional Council

Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast Regional Council Council Regional Council

Moreton Bay Moreton Moreton Bay Regional Council Council Regional Council

Brisbane City Council Brisbane City Council Ipswich City Council Ipswich City Council Gold Coast Gold Coast City Council City Council

Scenic Rim Scenic Rim Regional Council Regional Council Council

Isaac Regional Council Isaac Regional Council

Central Highlands Central Highlands Regional Council Regional Council

Gladstone Gladstone Regional Council Regional Council Regional Council Bundaberg Bundaberg Banana Banana Banana Regional Council Regional Council Shire Council Shire Council Fraser Coast Fraser Coast Regional Council Regional Council Regional

Legend:
Reformed local government areas in the land monitoring program
200 0 200 Kilometres 400

Source: PIFU

PIFU 2008

Residential land Activity for Queensland Land Monitoring Program
Year to September Quarter, 1998-2007
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Lot Approvals 2002 2003 Lot Sealings 2004 2005 2006 Lot Registrations 2007
PIFU 2008

Source: PIFU Residential Land Monitoring Program

Lot Approvals
Year to September Qtr
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 Mackay 2001 2002 2003 Bowen 2004 Mirani 2005 2006 Sarina
PIFU 2008

2007

Whitsunday

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Lot Sealings
Year to September Qtr
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 Mackay 2001 2002 2003 Bowen 2004 Mirani 2005 2006 Sarina
PIFU 2008

2007

Whitsunday

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Residential Land Activity, Mackay (R)* Year to September Qtr
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Lot Approvals 2002 2003 Sealings 2004 2005 2006 2007

Registrations

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program * Only includes Mirani (S) and Sarina (S) from their addition to RLAM programPIFU 2008

Residential Land Activity, Whitsunday (R) Year to September Qtr
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Lot Approvals 2002 2003 Sealings 2004 2005 2006 2007

Registrations
PIFU 2008

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Mackay (C) Residential Activity
Year ending 30 September 2007
Locality Rural View Blacks Beach Glenella Ooralea Walkerston Andergrove Beaconsfield Erakala Victoria Plains North Mackay Balance Total Lot Approvals Lot Approvals % Lot Sealings Lot Sealings % (Lots) of Total (Lots) of Total 407 30.7% 5 0.4% 251 19.0% 172 13.0% 109 8.2% 28 2.1% 97 7.3% 154 11.6% 94 7.1% 47 3.5% 70 5.3% 9 0.7% 57 4.3% 4 0.3% 47 3.5% 27 2.0% 46 3.5% 0 0.0% 30 2.3% 9 0.7% 116 8.8% 77 5.8% 1,324 100.0% 532 40.2%

Source: DLGPSR, Residential Land Monitoring Program

PIFU 2008

Whitsunday (S) Residential Activity
Year ending 30 September 2007
Lot Approvals Lot Approvals % Lot Sealings Lot Sealings % (Lots) of Total (Lots) of Total 99 58.9% 2 1.2% 43 25.6% 70 41.7% 7 4.2% 0 0.0% 5 3.0% 52 31.0% 4 2.4% 62 36.9% 2 1.2% 0 0.0% 2 1.2% 0 0.0% 2 1.2% 8 4.8% 1 0.6% 1 0.6% 1 0.6% 1 0.6% 2 1.2% 42 25.0% 168 100.0% 238 141.7% Locality Cannon Valley Jubilee Pocket Flametree Airlie Beach Cannonvale Gregory River Preston Riordanvale Brandy Creek Mount Julian Balance Total

Source: DLGPSR, Residential Land Monitoring Program

PIFU 2008

Lot Registration by Type
Year Ending September Qtr 2007
Mackay (C)
Units, 14.5%

Whitsunday (S)
House Lots, 33.5%

Units, 35.3%

Townshouses, 33.2%
Townshouses, 31.2%

House Lots, 52.3%

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

PIFU 2008

Lot Registration by Size
Year Ending September Qtr 2007
Mackay (C) 2,501-50,000m2 14% 250-600m2 14%

1,501-2,500m2 10% 1,001-1,500m2 3%

801-1,000m2 18%

601-800m2 41%

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

PIFU 2008

Lot Registration by Size
Year Ending September Qtr 2007
250-600m2 0% Whitsunday (S)

2,501-50,000m2 25%

601-800m2 32%

1,501-2,500m2 14%

1,001-1,500m2 8%

801-1,000m2 21%
PIFU 2008

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Median Residential Land Values and Land Sales Volume
Mackay (C) Years to September Qtr
$200,000 $180,000 $160,000 600 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 200 $40,000 $20,000 $0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100 0 500 400 300 800 700

Median Sale Price

Sales Volume
PIFU 2008

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Median Residential Land Values and Land Sales Volume
Whitsunday (S) Years to September Qtr
$250,000 350 300 $200,000 250 $150,000 200 150 100 $50,000 50 $0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0

$100,000

Median Sale Price

Sales Volume
PIFU 2008

Source: PIFU Residential Land Activity Monitoring Program

Morning Tea

PIFU 2008


				
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