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					           Short Course on
    Meteorological Applications of
        Aircraft Weather Data

     Future Plans – Opportunities for
            the Private Sector

                January 14, 2007


         Kevin Johnston and David Helms
                   NOAA/NWS




1
• IUOS and U.S. AMDAR
• IUOS Phase I
• Future Plans



2
                            What is IUOS?
                  Mission and Requirements Space
IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air
  observation requirements; and future validated requirements for:
  • Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution
  • New observations of environmental parameters
  • Data Management and Communications (DMAC)


Upper-air observation requirements space:
  • Geographical Extent: Global
  • Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun
  • Temporal Range: Warnings to
    Global Climate Change Prediction
  • Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure,
    moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, ….
  3
                          What is IUOS?
                               Characteristics
IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be:
 • Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured
 • Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication
 • Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models
 • Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS

                                                  IUOS Platforms and Sensors


Final Operating Capability:
• “Optimal” mix of NOAA
  and non-NOAA observation
  platforms including both in situ
  and remote sensors based on
  NOSA Architecture Principles



 4
                      IUOS Requirements
                               Methodology
                                                                                                         Water Vapor
Collect and Validate requirements                                                               Temporal Resolution: Threshold


 • Surveyed Users                                              100.0
                                                                90.0
                                                                         0.25
                                                                            1.00                                                                        R2 = 0.9975




                                      Needs Satisfied (%)
                                                                80.0
 • Scientific Literature                                        70.0
                                                                60.0                   3.00

 • “Heritage” Requirements (e.g.
                                                                50.0
                                                                40.0
                                                                                                    6.00
                                                                30.0
   FMH-3)                                                       20.0
                                                                10.0                                                        12.00

 • NOAA CORL (Program Input)                                     0.0
                                                                    0.00                     5.00                 10.00             15.00         20.00
                                                                                                                                                                      24.00



 • Phenomenological Analysis                                                                                      Refresh Rate (hrs)

                                      70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric
Establish Requirements Domain                 soundings collected every 2 hours
 • Threshold: Minimum performance                                                                       Water Vapor
   operationally useful                                                                       Horizontal Resolution: Threshold
                                                                100.0       2.5
                                                                            3
 • Objective: Maximum operationally                              90.0        10
                                                                                                                                                          R2 = 0.9397
                                         Needs Satisfied (%)


                                                                 80.0         2550
                                                                               36
   useful performance                                            70.0                80100
                                                                 60.0
                                                                 50.0
                                                                 40.0
                                                                                                200
                                                                 30.0
                                                                 20.0
                                                                                                      250
                                                                 10.0                                       300              500 550
                                                                  0.0                                                                       650                         1000
                                                                        0        100          200     300         400     500       600     700   800       900       1000
                                                                                                             Horizontal Resolution (km)
                                      70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric
 5                                                  soundings every 75 km
                              IUOS Missions Supported
                        Current verses Objective Resolution Requirements




                                                                                  ▼



                                                                              ▼
                                                                                             ▼ Current
                                                                                              ▼
                                                                                                  Objective Req.




6 Reference: Schlatter, et al, 2005: A Phenomenological Approach to the Specification of Observational Requirements
    IUOS End State Notion View
      Aircraft Observations Key to
      Reaching Resolution Goals




                                     Profilers
                                       and CAPs………... 185

                                     Rawinsonde…………102

                                     Current and future
                                     AMDAR……………….100
                   Rawinsonde
                                     Total Soundings…… 387
7
                                    IUOS Roadmap
                                            Phased Approach

                                    04     05     06      07       08         09     10       11   12    13    14   15   16

    Phase 1 – Regional In Situ           Requirements
              Soundings
                                                 Analysis

                                                          PPB

                                                                                   Deploy

                                                                 IOC                               FOC

    Phase 2 – Integrated Regional                       Req’s
              Soundings
                                                               Analysis

                                                                        PPB

                                                                                       Deploy
                                                                          IOC                      FOC
    Phase 3 – Integrated Radar                                  Req’s

                                                                                   Analysis

                                                                                       PPB

                                                                                                                Deploy

                                                                                                         IOC             FOC


8
                    IUOS Phase 1:
               Regional In Situ Soundings
                   Radiosonde/WV Aircraft Obs
In FY06-07:
     • Evaluate model response to
       water-vapor sensor derived data
     • Evaluate implications of
         – forecasters using different
           data source and,
         – reaction of broader US
           weather enterprise.
     • Use evaluation to develop plan
       for implementation

In FY08-09: Begin phase 1
 implementation


 9
                 Phase 1: Adaptive Sounding Strategy
                                            Notional Plan

Use alternative sounding from commercial aircraft if WV instrumented aircraft has a
  scheduled ascent or descent at an airport which is within:
       •   XX miles of radiosonde site
       •   YY minutes of radiosonde valid time

CONOPS:
       •   Lead Meteorologist at closest WFO coordinates sounding strategy
       •   Short (<3 hrs) and long term (6 month) public notices disseminated indicating product availability
           and associated WMO Heading and circuits
       •   Soundings from aircraft publicly available in near real-time

Alternative sounding strategy limited to:
       •   1 of 2 sounding launches per radiosonde station (initially)
       •   CONUS Non-GUAN stations

Outcomes:
       •   Cost avoidance from radiosonde expendables
       •   Redundant observations eliminated
       •   Greater % of Data Requirements Achieved

  10
                   Adaptive Sounding Strategy:
                        Weather Enterprise Input
     A few questions…
     • How do you currently use radiosonde observations?
     • What do you know about atmospheric observations from commercial
     aircraft?
     • What transition issues might you have with use of aircraft observations
     as an alternative to radiosonde observations?
     • How can NOAA best communication data quality issues associated with
     aircraft observations?
     • How does the proposed adaptive sounding strategy timeline impact
     you?
     • How can we recruit Weather Enterprise contacts to answer these and
     other issues associated with the Adaptive Sounding Strategy???

11
                                 Future Directions:
                         Commercial Aircraft Observations

Now:
       •   25 WVSSII sensors on United Parcel Service B-757 aircraft since March 2005 (NOAA)
       •   60 TAMDAR sensors on Mesaba Saab 340 Aircraft since December 2004 (NASA)
       •   1,700 aircraft contributing to the U.S. AMDAR
Next 1-2 Months:
       •   Contract award of NOAA RFP for installation and operation of Water Vapor Data from
           Commercial Aircraft, negotiations on-going
Phase 1 Implementation:
       •   Data distribution issues need to be worked if data are to be freely distributed
       •   Radiosonde release schedule changes and AMDAR data availability will be coordinated with
           U.S. Weather Enterprise
End-State Plan:
       •   Calls for 1,600 aircraft collecting water vapor observations
       •   Optimization of vertical profilers from airlines critical to allow for expansion of AMDAR and
           implementation of NOAA’s IUOS.
  12
     Questions???




13

				
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