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Real Estate Sierra Vista Arizona - PowerPoint

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					COCHISE COLLEGE
Center for Economic
     Research

Economic Review & Outlook
     Sierra Vista, AZ
                                    United States
                                                             GDP percent change based
                                                              on chained 2000 dollars
   Real GDP Growth
                                                       5.0
       3.9% in 2004                                   4.5
       3.2% in 2005                                   4.0
                                                       3.5
       3.3% in 2006                                   3.0
                                                       2.5
             1st Qtr: 5.6%
                                                       2.0
             2nd Qtr: 2.6%                            1.5
             3rd Qtr: 2.0%                            1.0
                                                       0.5
             4th Qtr: 2.2%                            0.0
                                                              2000

                                                                     2001

                                                                            2002

                                                                                   2003

                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                 2005

                                                                                                        2006
        Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                    United States
   Consumer Price Index                                        U.S. Inflation Rate
                                                                 (Change in CPI)
       2004: Up 2.7%
       2005: Up 3.4%                                  4.0%

       2006: Up 3.2%                                  3.5%

                                                       3.0%
   Energy prices up
                                                       2.5%
    11.2% in 2006
                                                       2.0%
       Follows 17.1% increase
                                                       1.5%
        in 2005
                                                       1.0%
                                                              2000

                                                                     2001

                                                                            2002

                                                                                   2003

                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                 2005

                                                                                                        2006
        Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                                             Interest Rates
        Federal Funds Rate, 2001-2007                                                                          Federal Funds Rate
6.0                                                                                                                Increased 25 basis points
4.0                                                                                                                 each meeting from June
2.0                                                                                                                 2004 to June 2006
0.0
                                                                                                                   Currently 5.25%
      Jan 01

               Jul

                     Jan 02

                              Jul

                                    Jan 03

                                             Jul

                                                   Jan 04

                                                            Jul

                                                                  Jan 05

                                                                           Jul

                                                                                  Jan 06

                                                                                            Jul

       Mortgage Rates, Jan 2006-2007                                                               Jan 07      Mortgage Rates
  7                                                                                                              2003: 5.83%
6.8
6.6                                                                                                              2004: 5.84%
6.4
6.2                                                                                                              2005: 5.87%
  6
                                                                                                                 2006: 6.58%
       Jan
               Feb
                     Mar
                              Apr
                                    May
                                             Jun
                                                   Jul
                                                            Aug
                                                                  Sep
                                                                           Oct
                                                                                 Nov
                                                                                           Dec
                                                                                                  Jan




                                                                                                                 Jan 2007: 6.36%
         Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                       Arizona’s Economy
      Arizona's GDP by State
     (Millions - Chained 2000                                Real GDP by State
              Dollars)
$210,000
                                                               Up 9.1% in 2005
                                                               Up 5.2% (Avg.
$200,000
                                                                Annual) between
$190,000                                                        1997 and 2004
$180,000                                                       Fastest-growing state
                                                                (economically) in the
$170,000
                                                                nation in 2005
$160,000                                                       Fastest-growing state
$150,000
                                                                (economically) in the
                                                                nation between 1997
             2000

                     2001

                            2002

                                   2003

                                           2004

                                                   2005




                                                                and 2004
    Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
   The Local Economy




Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                         Population
   Population Growth Rate                                 Sierra Vista
   Comparisons, 2002-2005                                     2005 Population: 43,690
6.0%                                                          Up 2.3% from 2004
5.0%                                                          Up 15.7% since 2000
4.0%                                                          Average 3.3% per year
3.0%                                                           since 2000
2.0%

1.0%                                                      Cochise County
0.0%                                                        2005 Population: 131,790
           2002        2003         2004        2005
                                                            Up 1.7% from 2004
  Sierra Vista                   Cochise County
                                                            Up 11.9% since 2000
  Arizona
                                                            Average 2.3% per year
       Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                                             since 2000
     Population Projections
                 In 2010
  Sierra Vista: 49,757 (Avg. 2.6% per year)
Cochise County: 146,666 (Avg. 2.2% per year)
Employment
                         Unemployment Rate
     Unemployment Rate                                       2005
   Comparisons, 2001-2006                                       U.S.: 5.1%
6.5%                                                            Arizona: 4.7%
6.0%                                                            Cochise County: 4.9%
5.5%
5.0%                                                            Sierra Vista: 2.9%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%                                                         2006
3.0%
                                                                U.S.: 4.6%
2.5%
                                                                Arizona: 4.2%
          2001


                  2002


                           2003


                                   2004


                                           2005


                                                      2006




                                                                Cochise County: 4.7%
       United States              Arizona
                                                                Sierra Vista: 2.8%
       Cochise County             Sierra Vista


       Cochise College Center for Economic Research
    Sierra Vista Employment, 2006
 Civilian Labor Force: 18,047
 New Jobs: 521
 Job Growth: 3.0%


   Top Employers (FTE Employment)
       Fort Huachuca (13,098)
       Sierra Vista School District (1,065)
       Sierra Vista Regional Health Center (643)
       Northrop Grumman Corp (565)
       Aegis (557)

    Cochise College Center for Economic Research
               Cochise County Non-Farm
                     Employment
   2005                                              2006
     37,050 jobs                                        38,350 jobs
     1,900 new jobs                                     1,300 new jobs
     Annual job growth:                                 Annual job growth:
      5.4%                                                3.5%
          Goods           Producing:                      Goods   Producing:
           7.5%                                             4.9%
          Private Service-                                Private Service-
           providing: 4.8%                                  providing: 4.2%
          Government: 5.9%                                Government: 1.8%


    Cochise College Center for Economic Research
    Cochise County Job Creation/Growth,
                2005-2006
   No. of New Jobs                                        Job Growth Rate
       Professional & business                                Professional & business services:
        services: 375                                           8.6%
       Trade, transportation &                                Mining & construction: 5.5%
        utilities: 325                                         Trade, transportation & utilities:
       Agriculture: 275                                        5.1%
       Government: 225                                        Leisure & hospitality: 4.9%
       Leisure & hospitality: 200                             Manufacturing: 2.9%
       Mining & construction: 150                             Financial activities: 2.6%
       Education and health services:                         Government: 1.8%
        50                                                     Agriculture: 1.7%
       Financial activities: 25                               Education and health services:
       Manufacturing: 25                                       1.3%
       Information: -50                                       Information: -10.5%
       Other services: -75                                    Other services: -7.3%

         Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Average Annual Wage Comparisons, 2005

      $45,000
                                                                      $37,870
      $40,000
                          $35,655                         $35,028
                                                $33,369
      $35,000
      $30,000
      $25,000
      $20,000
      $15,000
      $10,000
        $5,000
               $0

             Sierra Vista          Cochise County         Arizona   United States

 Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, 2005
       $18.50
                                                                      $18.21
       $18.00

       $17.50
                        $17.14
                                                          $16.84
       $17.00

       $16.50
                                                $16.04
       $16.00

       $15.50

       $15.00

       $14.50

            Sierra Vista         Cochise County          Arizona   United States

 Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Sierra Vista Employment Forecast
   Labor Force
       18,352 in 2007
       18,680 in 2008
       19,009 in 2009
   Unemployment rate
     2.8% in 2007
     2.8% in 2008
     2.7% in 2009




     Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                Retail
                Construction
                                Sales




Manufacturing          Local Sales        Restaurant
                                             and
                                             Bar




                 Wholesale
                                Lodging
                  Trade
      Sierra Vista Taxable Sales by
                 Category
                        Accommodation,
                                               Arts & Entertainment,   Finance & Insurance,
                             1.8%
                                                       0.1%                   0.1%
               Wholesale, 2.4%

          Services, 2.4%                                                      Other, 0.6%

   Manufacturing, 2.5%

   Real Estate Rental &
     Leasing, 6.3%


    Restaurant & Bar,
         7.2%



        Communications &
          Utilities, 8.0%                                                     Retail, 58.2%


             Construction, 10.3%




Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                             Sierra Vista Retail Sales
                     Retail Sales, 2002-2006                               2005
                                                                               $476.3 million
                                                                               Up 7.5%
Millions




           $500                                                                Real, inflation-adjusted
                                                                                growth of 4.1%
                                                                               65.1% of county
           $450                                                                 retail sales
                                                                           2006
                                                                               $501 million
           $400
                                                                               Up 5.2%
                                                                               Real, inflation-adjusted
           $350                                                                 growth of 2%
                      2002        2003        2004        2005   2006          64.3% of county
                                                                                retail sales


                  Cochise College Center for Economic Research
         Sierra Vista Restaurant & Bar
   2005
       $54.7 million
       Up 8.9%
                                                            Restaurant & Bar, 2002-2006
       Real, inflation-adjusted
        growth of 5.5%                                    $65


                                               Millions
       56.1% of county
        restaurant & bar sales                            $60
   2006                                                  $55
       $61.4 million
       Up 12.3%
                                                          $50
       Real, inflation-adjusted                          $45
        growth of 9.1%                                          2002   2003   2004   2005   2006
       57.1% of county
        restaurant & bar sales


        Cochise College Center for Economic Research
    Sierra Vista Accommodation Sales
   2005
       $15 million
       Up 18.6%                                               Accommodation, 2002-2006
       Real, inflation-adjusted
        growth of 15.2%
       54.2% of county

                                              Millions
        accommodation sales
   2006                                                 $14
       $15.1 million
       Up 0.4%                                          $12
       Real, inflation-adjusted
        growth of -2.8%
       55.9% of county                                  $10
        accommodation sales                                      2002   2003   2004   2005   2006




        Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Sierra Vista Sales Forecast, 2007-2009

 Average             Annual Growth
     RetailSales: 5.2%
     Restaurant and Bar Sales: 3.1%
     Accommodation Sales: 3.9%




 Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Housing & Real Estate
                 New SFR Construction
1,200                                                    1,108
                                                 1,046
                                     926
1,000                                                            900

  800               653                              689
                                               591           577
  600
                             376                                       427

  400

  200

          0
                   2002             2003         2004    2005    2006


   Cochise County                                    Sierra Vista
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
         Cochise County Housing Market
                   2002-2006
          New              New               New        Resale    Resale      Resale     New
         Home             Home               Home       Home      Home        Home       Home
        Closings          Median            Average    Closings   Median     Average    Permits
                           Price             Price                 Price       Price
2002           330       $148,460           $149,937     1,884    $104,438    $89,900      653

2003           407       $162,157           $169,647     1,979    $102,000   $116,673      926

2004           656       $169,421           $179,599     2,464    $115,000   $128,857    1,047

2005           611       $210,000           $215,020     2,850    $140,050   $159,640    1,108

2006           514       $241,907           $250,896     2,254    $151,267   $169,544      900




       Cochise College Center for Economic Research
    Countywide Housing Market, 2006

 New home closings down 15.9%
 New home median price up 15.2%
 New home average price up 16.7%
 Resale home closings down 20.9%
 Resale home median price up 8%
 Resale home average price up 6.2%



    Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Sierra Vista Area MLS Home Sales

          Number of                                              Average               Median
                               Change in              Average                Median
Year         Homes                                                  Price                Price
                                 Volume                  Price                Price
               Sold                                               Change               Change


2002             1,109              12.5%         $129,195         8.4%     $116,900    9.8%

2003             1,086              -2.1%         $144,059        11.5%     $134,000   14.6%

2004             1,340              23.4%         $166,598        15.6%     $153,902   14.9%

2005             1,632              21.8%         $197,133        18.3%     $185,875   20.8%

2006             1,237             -23.8%         $214,219         7.6%     $205,500   10.6%



       Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Sierra Vista Area MLS Stats, 2006
   Average selling price as percent of asking price:
    97.8% (down from 98.8%)
   Homes sold above asking price: 9.5% (down
    from 16.6%)
   Homes sold at asking price: 31% (down from
    42.7%)
   Homes sold below asking price: 59.4% (up from
    40.7%)
   Average days on market: 110 (down from 128)
   Average price per square foot: $125.01 (up 6%)

     Cochise College Center for Economic Research
             Sierra Vista Area Housing
                 Affordability Index

170
                    160.6
                                      153.6
150                                               144.8

130                                                         130.1

                                                                       115.0
110                                                                             100.3

 90
            2001              2002              2003      2004      2005       2006
 Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                                          Outlook
 Continued slowing of home sales (both
  new and resale)
 Stabilization of prices
 Continued shift from seller’s to buyer’s
  market
 Potential interest rate cuts in second half
  of the year may help


    Cochise College Center for Economic Research
                        That’s All Folks!




Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research

				
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