Mississippi Riverfront Commercial Real Estate

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					  ECONOMIC AND MARKET RESEARCH IN SUPPORT OF A
                  COMPREHENSIVE PLAN FOR

                       The 5th Ward

                   ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI
                       NOVEMBER 13, 2010




                          PREPARED FOR

                      SCHWETYE ARCHITECTS




 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
CONSULTANTS IN REAL ESTATE, ECONOMIC, AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
     10 S. Broadway  St. Louis, Missouri 63102-1743  (314) 421-2800
                                                            TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................1

DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS – CITY OF ST. LOUIS AND FIFTH WARD .........................3

   DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE .............................................................................................................................................3
       Population and Households ..................................................................................................................................3
       Household Size ......................................................................................................................................................4
       Age ........................................................................................................................................................................4
       Marital Status .......................................................................................................................................................5
       Race ......................................................................................................................................................................5
   EMPLOYMENT PROFILE ..............................................................................................................................................6

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS ..............................................................................................................8

   CENSUS DATA AND ESTIMATES .................................................................................................................................8
       Home Values .........................................................................................................................................................8
       Tenure ...................................................................................................................................................................8
       Length of Residence ..............................................................................................................................................8
       Age of Housing Inventory .....................................................................................................................................9
   PROFILE OF NEW SINGLE-FAMILY DEVELOPMENTS – CITY OF ST. LOUIS ..................................................................9
   SUMMARY OF APARTMENT COMPLEXES – CITY OF ST. LOUIS ................................................................................. 10

DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................. 21

   RESIDENTIAL MARKET............................................................................................................................................. 21
   RETAIL MARKET ...................................................................................................................................................... 23
       Convenience Retail and Restaurants .................................................................................................................. 23
       Big Box Retail ..................................................................................................................................................... 24
   HOTEL MARKET ....................................................................................................................................................... 25
   ENTERTAINMENT MARKET ...................................................................................................................................... 26
   INDUSTRIAL MARKET .............................................................................................................................................. 26



APPENDIX
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The Fifth Ward is situated on the northern periphery of downtown St. Louis, encompassing all,
or part of, five neighborhoods including St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old
North St. Louis, and the Near North Riverfront. Much like the city as a whole, the Fifth Ward
continues to lose population. Between 1990 and 1998, the Fifth Ward’s population fell from
12,400 to 9,920 residents, representing a loss of 2,480 and an annual average rate of decline of
2.5 percent. The pace of loss is projected to moderate to 2.3 percent between 1998 and 2003,
representing a loss of 1,136 more residents.

A key goal of the Fifth Ward Plan, of course, is to initially stem this outflow and then to encour-
age net growth in population, households, and jobs. This report on the market and economic op-
portunities of the Fifth Ward concludes that such changes can occur if key investments are pro-
grammed.

The 1998 average annual household income in the Fifth Ward is estimated to be $19,700, just a
little over half of the citywide average of $34,390. Median household income (half of house-
holds above and half below) ranges from $10,770 to $19,000 within the neighborhoods that
comprise the Fifth Ward. In terms of employment, there is a greater share of communications
and other public utilities employees, whole sale trade employees, business and repair services
employees, and professional and related educational services employees in the Fifth Ward than
in the City as a whole, indicating that the district has a distribution and service base, a distinct
advantage in today’s economy.

Mirroring income distribution, home values are generally lower in the Fifth Ward than in St.
Louis as a whole. The 1998 median home value in the City was estimated at $48,300. The Co-
lumbus Square neighborhood’s median home value was estimated to be $106,400, the highest in
the Ward; Old North St. Louis’ median home value of $23,000 was the lowest in the Ward.

There appears to be more mobility within the Fifth Ward than in the city as a whole. Over half
of the Ward’s current residents moved into their housing units within the past five years. City
planners estimate that about half of the Ward’s housing was built before 1950, which is actually
an advantage over the city as a whole where 69 percent is more than 50 years old. In the Fifth
Ward, this is attributable both to demolition of many older units and the construction which has
taken place in the last 25 years (e.g., Columbus Square, Murphy Park, Brewery).

   For our demand analysis we defined the primary market area as the area in zip codes 63106,
    63113, 63107, and 63115, all within the City.
   The secondary market, which includes parts of St. Louis County, consists of zip codes 63101,
    63102, 63103, 63104, 63108, 63110, 63112, 63120, 63147, 63138, 63137, 63136, 63121,
    63133, 63114.

Significantly, those households earning $75,000 or more in annual income are projected to in-
crease dramatically over the next five years in both market areas. Overall, the net increase in the
number of households earning over $25,000 is projected to be 924. Based on population and in-
come projections for the primary and secondary markets, the below-average condition of the ex-
isting housing stock, and the overall demographic and economic trends affecting the Fifth Ward

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                 1
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

we estimate that there will be need for 350 to 450 new housing units (non-subsidized, both net
new and replacements) over the next five years in the Fifth Ward. We project this to increase to
and additional 400 to 500 households over the subsequent five years. These units should come
in the form of single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, and market-rate apartments.

There is potential for 50 to 75 of these units to be higher end housing priced at $200,000 or
more. Higher end housing, however, would generally need to follow, rather than precede, reno-
vation activity and construction of more moderately priced housing. Alternatively, the creation
of a major open space, park, or golf course amenity can provide the basis for initiating higher
value housing much sooner.

New development should be built on a scale that will create a critical mass. New developments,
whether a new urbanist style or a more traditional suburban subdivision style, must be recogniz-
able as a “place” with 30 to 50 units at an initial minimum, depending upon the physical layout
of the area.

Current residents and employees generate demand for about 100,000 to 125,000 square feet of
convenience retail space. Current residential and employee spending power could support about
35,000 to 40,000 square feet of restaurant space. Over time, if the market adds residents and
employees and improvements attract conventioneers and dome attendees through the Fifth Ward,
this level of demand could rise. Retail development is typically a component that follows, rather
than leads in the redevelopment process.

There are six new hotels currently under construction, or in advanced stages of planning, down-
town which could limit demand for hotel rooms in the Fifth Ward. Also, any family-style enter-
tainment district planned in the Fifth Ward would face stiff competition from existing venues as
well as plans for future entertainment venues in the downtown area. Therefore, while ideas
about creating inviting entryways and connections from the Fifth Ward to the Dome, the Con-
vention center, and Laclede’s Landing could be implemented in the short run, the hotel and en-
tertainment features would likely need to be phased in later on after a subsequent market and po-
litical analysis.

Manufacturing, business repair services, and wholesale trade industries employ a large share of
the Fifth Ward employees. The Ward’s roadway access advantages and proximity to downtown
are appealing to these types of industries as evidenced by the success of Balke-Brown’s industri-
al park. The region’s industrial market is very healthy, with absorption, construction, and lease
rates on the rise and vacancies on the decline. Pent up citywide demand, along with the need to
relocate Ward businesses as the new bridge is constructed indicates that there is plenty of support
for industrial development in the Fifth Ward.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                             2
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS – CITY OF ST. LOUIS AND
FIFTH WARD
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
The Fifth Ward includes five neighborhoods:

      St. Louis Place (#60)
      Carr Square (#61)
      Columbus Square (#62)
      Old North St. Louis (#63)
      Near North Riverfront (#64)

Only a portion of the Near North Riverfront neighborhood is included in the Fifth Ward. How-
ever, the entire neighborhood is presented in this demographic profile.

Data prepared by the St. Louis Development Corporation, based on projections for the 1998 to
2003 period by Claritas are presented below and compared to the City as a whole. In addition to
the City’s projections, we present updated Claritas projections in other sections of the report. The
neighborhood level projections are presented in the appendix to this report. This analysis com-
bines the five neighborhoods that comprise the Fifth Ward. It is important to keep in mind that
the demographic projections in this section are based on Claritas’ model’s assumption that there
will not be any major changes in the neighborhoods over the next five years and that past trends
will predict future trends.

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS

The City of St. Louis’ population has been declining over the past forty years. During the 1990
to 1998 period, the City’s overall population declined by 15 percent, representing an annual loss
of 1.9 percent. This brought the city’s estimated population to 337,350, as of 1998. Claritas
projects that the city will continue to lose population at an annual rate of 1.6 percent between
1998 and 2003, bringing the population to 310,000 by 2003.

The number of households has also been dwindling and will continue to decline. From 1990 to
1998, the city lost 21,840 households, representing a 1.7 percent annual rate of decline. The
pace of loss is projected to decline to 1.5 percent between 1998 and 2003, bringing the projected
number of households to 131,860 by 2003.

Following citywide trends, the Fifth Ward has been losing population. Between 1990 and 1998,
the Fifth Ward’s population fell from 12,400 to 9,920 residents, representing a loss of 2,480 resi-
dents, and an annual decline of 2.5 percent. The pace of loss is projected to moderate to 2.3 per-
cent between 1998 and 2003, representing a loss of 1,136 more residents.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                              3
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


            Population and Household Trends Fifth Ward and City of St. Louis
            1990 –2003
                                  Fifth Ward          Total Change        City of St. Louis        Total Change
            Population
            1990                      12,450                                      396,680
            1998 (est)                 9,920                 -20.3%               337,350              -15.0%
            2003 (proj)                8,780                 -11.5%               310,000               -8.1%

            Households
            1990                       4,590                                      164,400
            1998 (est)                 3,637                 -20.8%               142,560              -13.3%
            2003 (proj)                3,210                 -11.7%               131,860               -7.5%
            Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, Claritas, and Development Strategies




HOUSEHOLD SIZE

In the Fifth Ward, 35 percent of households are one person households, 23 percent are two per-
son households, 27 percent are households of three or four persons and the remaining 15 percent
are households with five or more persons. When compared to the city as a whole, the Fifth Ward
has a larger share of large households. This is an indication that larger rental units and single-
family homes would be appropriate for any planned new development.

                                          Persons Per Household
                                      Fifth Ward and City of St. Louis
                                                   1998


                   60.0%
                   40.0%
                   20.0%
                    0.0%
                               1 person         2 persons      3 - 4 persons       5 or more
                                                                                    persons

                                                Fifth Ward    St. Louis City

                Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, Claritas, and Development Strategies


AGE

The Fifth Ward’s population is considerably younger than the city as a whole. An estimated 35.4
percent of the Fifth Ward’s population is under 18 years of age. In contrast, about 26.5 percent
of the city’s population is under 18. At the other end of the age spectrum, slightly less than 12
percent of the Fifth Ward’s population is 65 years of age or older. In contrast, senior citizens
account for 16.5 percent of the city’s population. The concentration of schools in the Fifth Ward
and environs is consistent with the larger share of young people in the Ward.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                            4
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                   Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, Claritas, and Development Strategies


                               Age Distribution Fifth Ward and City of St. Louis
                                                      1998


                     40.0%
                     35.0%
                     30.0%
                     25.0%
                     20.0%
                     15.0%
                     10.0%
                      5.0%
                      0.0%
                                Under 18       18 to 34      35 to 54      55 to 64      65 and
                                                                                          over

                                                      Fifth Ward    St. Louis




MARITAL STATUS

About 80 percent of the residents of the Fifth Ward are single and 20 percent are married. In
contrast, about 65 percent of the city’s residents are single and 35 percent are married. This in-
dicates that there is a significant share of single parent families in the Ward. This sector is a sig-
nificant share of the market seeking new housing in the Ward. Single parent families often seek
modern housing, to reduce the time and money required for maintenance of older homes.

RACE

The Fifth Ward is predominantly African-American. An estimated 90.6 percent of the Ward’s
population is black while about 51 percent of the city’s population is black.

Income
The 1998 average household income in the Fifth Ward is estimated to be $19,700, compared
with $34,390 citywide. The median household income ranges from $10,770 to $19,000 within
the neighborhoods that comprise the Fifth Ward. In comparison, the City’s 1998 median income
is $25,660. An examination of the distribution of household incomes shows that a larger share of
the Fifth Ward households have incomes under $15,000 than the city as a whole. Moreover,
about 7.8 percent of the Fifth Ward’s households have incomes of $50,000 or greater, compared
with 22.5 percent of the city as a whole.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                5
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


                                        Distribution of Household Income
                                       Fifth Ward and City of St. Louis 1998

                  60.0%
                  50.0%
                  40.0%
                  30.0%
                  20.0%
                  10.0%
                    0.0%
                              Under    $15,000-   $25,000-   $35,000-   $50,000-   $75,000-   $100,000- $150,000+
                             $15,000   $24,999    $34,999    $49,999    $74,999    $99,999    $149,999


                                                         Fifth Ward       St. Louis
                Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, Claritas, and Development Strategies



EMPLOYMENT PROFILE

This section profiles the employee base for the Fifth Ward and the City of St. Louis. The data
presented are estimates from Claritas for 1999. The geographic area used to define the Fifth
Ward for the employment analysis is somewhat larger than the information presented above and
includes a larger number of employees than does the 1998 estimates prepared by the City of St.
Louis. The variation in data source was needed in order to present a greater level of industry de-
tail.

There is a greater share of communications and other public utilities employees, whole sale trade
employees, business and repair services employees, and professional and related educational ser-
vices employees in the Fifth Ward than in the City as a whole, indicating that the district has a
distribution and service base.

Durable goods manufacturing is also an important component of the Fifth Ward’s industry base.
Less detailed industry level for the smaller area of the five Fifth Ward neighborhoods show that
manufacturing and construction account for a larger share of the employment base than it does
for the city as a whole.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                              6
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


Employment by Industry Group
Fifth Ward Environs and St. Louis MSA - 1999
                                                 Fifth Ward Environs           St. Louis MSA
                                                 # of Em-                   # of Em-
Area Name                                         ployees      % of Total    ployees      % of Total
Ag/Forest/Fish/Mining/Constr Emp                    228           2.0%       73,019          5.3%
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Employees        0           0.0%        5,669          0.4%
Mining Employees                                      0           0.0%        1,587          0.1%
Construction Employees                              228           2.0%       65,763          4.7%
Manufacturing Employees                           1,228          10.6%      187,055         13.5%
   Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Employees        344           3.0%       67,011          4.8%
   Manufacturing, Durable Good Employees            884           7.6%      120,044          8.7%
Transport/Comm/Oth Public Util Emp                  736           6.3%       85,435          6.2%
Transportation Employees                            183           1.6%       52,733          3.8%
Communications & Other Public Utilities Em-         553           4.8%       32,702          2.4%
ployees
Wholesale Trade Employees                           976           8.4%       74,342          5.4%
Retail Trade Employees                              719           6.2%      243,302         17.6%
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Emp                    70           0.6%       84,009          6.1%
Business/Repair/Personal Svcs Emp                   997           8.6%      124,158          9.0%
   Business and Repair Services Employees           985           8.5%       93,405          6.7%
   Personal Services Employees                       12           0.1%       30,753          2.2%
Entertainment/Recreation Svcs Emp                    27           0.2%       24,980          1.8%
Prof/Relatd Health Services Emp                       0           0.0%      133,892          9.7%
Prof/Relatd Educ & Oth Srvcs Emp                  1,337          11.5%      140,419         10.1%
   Professional & Related Educational Svcs Em-      628           5.4%       39,277          2.8%
ployees
   Other Professional and Related Services Em-      709            6.1%     101,142          7.3%
ployees
Total Military Employees                               2           0.0%       7,329          0.5%

Total Private Sector Employees                    6,318          54.3% 1,170,611            84.5%
Total Public Sector Employees                     5,285          45.4%   177,734            12.8%
Total Employees Working at Home                      24           0.2%    30,235             2.2%

Total Employees                                  11,629         100.0% 1,385,909           100.0%
Source: Claritas and Development Strategies




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                 7
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS
CENSUS DATA AND ESTIMATES

HOME VALUES

Mirroring income distribution, home values are generally lower in the Fifth Ward than they are
in St. Louis as a whole. The 1998 median home value in the City of St. Louis is estimated at
$48,300. The Columbus Square neighborhood’s median home value is estimated to be
$106,400, the highest in the Ward. Old North St. Louis’ median home value of $23,000 is the
lowest in the Ward.


                                      Distribution of 1998 Home Values
                                       Fifth Ward and City of St. Louis


                         Under $20,000

                    $20,000 to $74,999

                  $75,000 to $149,999

                         Over $150,000

                                         0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

                                                            Fifth Ward      St. Louis

                Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, Claritas, and Development Strategies


TENURE

Home ownership levels are also consistent with current income levels in the Fifth Ward. An es-
timated 20 percent of the housing units in the Ward are owner-occupied while 80 percent are ren-
ter occupied. In contrast, 45 percent of the housing units are owner-occupied citywide and 55
percent are renter occupied.

LENGTH OF RESIDENCE

There appears to be some more mobility within the Fifth Ward than there is in the city as a
whole. Nearly 55 percent of the Ward’s residents moved into their unit in the past five years or
less. Citywide about 47 percent moved into their unit within the past five years. Over the past
six to 10 years, 23 percent of the Fifth Ward residents and 14 percent of the city’s residents
moved into their units. About 23 percent of the Fifth Ward Residents moved into their units less
than 11 years ago while 39 percent of residents city-wide have lived in their units for 11 years or
more.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                             8
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

AGE OF HOUSING INVENTORY

The City estimates that 7.2 percent of the Fifth Ward units were built since 1985 while 4.1 per-
cent of the city’s housing inventory was built in 1985 or later. About half of the Ward’s housing
was built before 1950, in comparison to 69 percent of the city’s housing.

Home Sales – City of St. Louis

Comparison of City MLS Data with Metro Area West, 1990 - June 1999
             Region Av- City Aver-       City as %    Region        City          City Sale       Region     City       City DOM/
             erage Sales age Sales       of Region    Sales Price   Sales Price   price to list   Days on    Days on    Region
             Price       Price                        to List       to List       price as        the Mar-   the Mar-   DOM
                                                      Price Ratio   Price Ratio   percent of      ket        ket
                                                                                  Region



1990         100.9         66.3          66%          95.5          93.6          98%             84         98.5       117%
1991         104.4         64.7          62%          95.1          92.6          97%             84         98.8       118%
1992         106.6         67.3          63%          95.6          92.7          97%             84         103.8      124%
1993         113.2         70.1          62%          95.8          93.4          97%             83         105.8      127%
1994         112           67.2          60%          96.3          93.4          97%             78         105        135%
1995         115           66.2          58%          96.1          93.3          97%             69         100        145%
1996         120.2         64.6          54%          96.5          94.3          98%             59         99         168%
1997         127.1         68.2          54%          96.4          94.5          98%             66         85         129%
1998         133           73.2          55%          96.6          94.7          98%             66         77         117%
Thru 6/99    133.5         69.4          52%          97.2          95.1          98%             90         90         100%
Source: CDA Staff and consultant Compilation of St. Louis MLS Comparable Books 1990 - 1999



PROFILE OF NEW SINGLE-FAMILY DEVELOPMENTS – CITY OF ST. LOUIS
The following are recently completed or planned single-family projects in the City of St. Louis.
1. Betty’s Walk – Contempri Homes (619/357-9253)
      15 – 16 planned for Phase I, 3 units completed
      1,100 – 1,400 square feet
      Sales price $129,000
      Modular homes with two car garages.

2. Mulanphy Square – Choate Construction (692-0838)
     Phase I includes 38 units, all units are built and occupied
     Phase II will include 15 units
     Prices for Phase I units ranged from $108,500 to $128,500
     Prices for Phase II units range from $110,500 to $128,000
     Options include one or two-car garage and fireplaces.

3. Eads Park – Pyramid Construction (773-6333)
      76 units planned, 51 complete, 11 under construction, the remaining lots have been pre-
       sold.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                                              9
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

      Units range in size from 1,600 to 2,500 square feet
      Average price $147,000
      Amenities are those typically found in new suburban construction including fireplaces.

4. Oregon Place – Pyramid Construction (773-6333)
     11 units built
     Units range in size from 1,600 to 2,500 square feet
     Average price $120,000
     Amenities are those typically found in new suburban construction.

5. Westminster Place – Pyramid Construction (773-6333)
     13 units completed in Phase I
     Units range in size from 1,600 to 2,500 square feet
     Average price $157,000 - $215,000
     Amenities are those typically found in new suburban construction.

6. Grand-Rock – Pyramid Construction (773-6333)
     75 units planned over five years with 6 houses under construction.
     Homes are selling before completion.
     45 for rent houses and townhouses are also planned.
     Units average 1,600 square feet in size
     Average price $82,900
     Units have three bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms and detached one-car garages.
     Income restrictions apply to homes under construction, but future homes will be market
      rate.
     Future phase market rate homes will be larger and will cost over $100,000.

7. Sears Site – Pyramid Construction (773-6333)
      26 units planned over five years.
      Sales prices starting at $130,000.

8. Buder Place Homes – SLACO (533-9104 x44)
     67 single-family homes completed.
     Fifth phase is planned.
     Sales prices range from $75,000 to $100,000

9. St. Vincent Homes – SLACO/Vatterot (533-9104 x44)
       100 new market rate homes planned over a four year period.
       Display home due for completion in early 2000
       Sales prices range from $140,000 to $250,000

SUMMARY OF APARTMENT COMPLEXES – CITY OF ST. LOUIS
The following pages summarize the major multifamily properties in, or near, the Fifth Ward.



DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                          10
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                               MARKET COMPARABLE #1

                                The Brewery Apartments


Location:                2000 Madison Street, St. Louis, Missouri 63106
Manager:                 McCormack Baron – 436-1655
Number of Units:         140
Year Built/Renovated:    1910/1985
Quality/Condition:       Above Average
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type    Number Size (Avg.)        Rent      Rent/SF
                         Studio         3      566 SF           $325         $0.57
                         1 BR-1b        62     580 SF           $335-435 $0.49-0.62
                         2 BR-1b        66     870 SF           $435-505 $0.71-0.63
                         2 BR-1.5b      10     970 SF           Section 8     n/a

Percent Occupied:        97%
Utilities:               Owner pays water and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, washer/dryer, mini-blinds, and security entry system.
Complex Amenities:       Gated parking, on site manager and maintenance, and swimming pool

Comments:                The complex is located just north of downtown at the former Falstaff Brewery at
                         20th and Madison Streets. Forty-four units are rented under the Section 8
                         program.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                               11
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                               MARKET COMPARABLE #2

                                  West End Apartments


Location:                1010 Goodfellow Avenue, St. Louis, Missouri 63108
Manager:                 McCormack Baron – 361-6900
Number of Units:         100
Year Built:              1985
Quality/Condition:       Average
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type    Number      Size          Rent         Rent/SF
                         1 BR-1b        22       620 SF         $375          $0.60
                         2 BR-1.5b      78       800 SF         $400          $0.50

Percent Occupied:        96%
Utilities:               Owner pays water and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances
Complex Amenities:       Laundry room, on-site manager, and off-street parking

Comments:                Located six blocks north of Delmar Boulevard.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                 12
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                MARKET COMPARABLE #3

                               O’Fallon Place Apartments


Location:                1405 North 16th Street, St. Louis, Missouri 63106
Manager:                 McCormack Baron – 421-6387
Number of Units:         675
Year Built:              1981-84
Quality/Condition:       Fair
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type   Number         Size          Rent          Rent/SF
                         1 BR-1b      140          604 SF         $350           $0.58
                         2 BR-1b      159          815 SF         $425           $0.49
                         2 BR-1.5b TH 276          944 SF         $460           $0.49
                         3 BR-1.5b TH 100         1,102 SF      Section 8

Percent Occupied:        92%
Utilities:               Owner pays water and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, balconies/patios w/ storage, and mini-blinds
Complex Amenities:       Swimming pool, off-street parking, on-site manager, playground, tennis courts,
                         basketball court, and laundry room

Comments:                Located just north of downtown. Phased renovation began in 1999. Currently
                         69 units are off-line and are not included in the occupancy figure. A portion of
                         the rents are reserved as LIHTC units but are priced the same as the market rate
                         units. After the renovated units are leased a rent increase is probable. 200 units
                         are reserved for the Section 8 program.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                   13
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                MARKET COMPARABLE #4

                               Historic Benton Apartments


Location:                20th Street and Maiden Lane, St. Louis, Missouri 63106
Manager:                 Owner – 727-6789
Number of Units:         26
Year Built:              1920/1985
Quality/Condition:       Average
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type     Number         Size          Rent           Rent/SF
                         1 BR-1b         10          800 SF         $375            $0.46
                         2 BR-1.5b       14          950 SF       $385-425        $0.41-0.45

Percent Occupied:        95%
Utilities:               Owner pays water and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, balconies/patios, storage, mini-blinds, and ceiling fans.
Complex Amenities:       None

Comments:                The complex is located just north of downtown and one block north of The
                         Brewery Apartments.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                               14
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                MARKET COMPARABLE #5

                                  The Ville Townhomes


Location:                Kennerly & Newstead Avenues, St. Louis, Missouri 63113
Manager:                 BPC – 533-7566
Number of Units:         110
Year Built:              1986
Quality/Condition:       Above Average
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type   Number           Size         Rent        Rent/SF
                         2 BR-1.5b     32            815 SF        $475         $0.58
                         2 BR-1.5b TH 78             934 SF        $480         $0.51

Percent Occupied:        97%
Utilities:               Owner pays water and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, mini-blinds, large closets, washer/dryer connections, and
                         patios/balconies
Complex Amenities:       Gated entry system, security fence, and on-site manager

Comments:                The complex is well maintained and is located near Sumner High School.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                               15
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                MARKET COMPARABLE #6

                              Goodfellow Place Apartments


Location:                3300 Goodfellow Boulevard, St. Louis, Missouri 63120
Manager:                 McCormack Baron – 381-5780
Number of Units:         71
Year Built:              1989
Quality/Condition:       Above Average
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type          Size        Rent      Rent/SF
                         2 BR-1b           938 SF       $430       $0.45
                         2 BR-1.5b TH     1,016 SF      $440       $0.43
                         3 BR-2b          1,000 SF      $475       $0.47
                         3 BR-2b TH       1,062 SF      $485       $0.46

Percent Occupied:        97%
Utilities:               Owner pays water, sewer, and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, mini-blinds, large closets, washer/dryer, and patios/balconies
Complex Amenities:       On-site manager, off-street parking, and laundry room

Comments:                The complex is well maintained and is located less than one mile south of I-70.
                         Approximately 22 percent of the units are designated under the LIHTC program.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                    16
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                               MARKET COMPARABLE #7

                             Columbus Square Apartments


Location:                917 Cole Street, St. Louis, Missouri 63102
Manager:                 AIMCO – 231-6806
Number of Units:         332
Year Built:              1982-84
Quality/Condition:       Good
Unit Mix/Rents:
                         Unit Type  Size             Rent       Rent/SF
                         1 BR-1b 700-775 SF        $415-490    $0.59-0.63
                         2 BR-2b 850-984 SF        $515-590    $0.60-0.61

Percent Occupied:        94%
Utilities:               Owner pays water, sewer, and trash and tenant pays electric
Interior Amenities:      All appliances, mini-blinds, large closets, bay windows, dishwasher, and
                         patios/balconies
Complex Amenities:       Swimming pool, on-site manager, off-street gated parking, intercom entry
                         system, tennis courts, exercise facility and laundry facility

Comments:                The complex is well maintained and is located immediately north of downtown
                         across the street from the Cervantes Convention Center and TWA Dome. Ap-
                         proximately 16 percent of the units are subsidized units.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                              17
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                      MARKET COMPARABLE #8

                            The Residences at Murphy Park - Phase I


Location:             Cass and 20th Streets, St. Louis
Manager:              McCormack Baron 436-2351
Number of Units:      160
Year Built:           1997
Condition:            Very Good
Unit Mix/Rents:
                      Unit Type            Size          Rent     Rent/SF
                      2 BR-1b             865 SF         $530      $0.61
                      2 BR TH-1.5b       1,014 SF        $560      $0.55
                      3 BR TH-2b         1,220 SF        $615      $0.50
                      4 BR TH-2.5b       1,441 SF        $670      $0.46

Percent Occupied:     100%
Deposit:              One month rent
Utilities:            Tenant pays gas and electric.
Interior Amenities:   All appliances, large closets, mini-blinds, patios/balconies, washers and dryers, and addi-
                      tional phone lines for computer hookups
Complex Amenities:    Off street parking and on-site manager’s office, pool, and tot lots

Comments:             This is the first phase of the subject property. Forty-two units are market rate with the
                      remaining leased to low-income households under the LIHTC program or the Housing
                      Authority.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                            18
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                     MARKET COMPARABLE #9

                              Etzel Place I and II (Restricted Rents)


Location:             1010 Goodfellow Avenue, St. Louis, Missouri
Manager:              McCormack Baron – 361-0837
Number of Units:      63 Phase I; 42 Phase II
Year Built:           1989 and 1997
Condition:            Good
Unit Mix/Rents:
                      Unit Type          Size        Rent      Rent/SF
                      2 BR-1b          1,022 SF      $340       $0.33
                      2 BR-1.5 TH      1,012 SF      $350       $0.35
                      3 BR-2b          1,088 SF      $400       $0.37

Percent Occupied:     98%
Deposit:              One month rent
Utilities:            Owner pays water and trash. Tenant pays electric.
Interior Amenities:   All appliances, mini-blinds, and patios/balconies
Complex Amenities:    Off-street parking, playground, and laundry room

Comments:             100% of the units are designated under the LIHTC program. Rents are based on 60% of
                      the area median income.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                  19
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS




                                     MARKET COMPARABLE #10

                                          Westminster Place


Location:             4005 Westminster Place, St. Louis, Missouri
Manager:              McCormack Baron – 533-8330
Number of Units:      395 Total
Year Built:           1988-92
Condition:            Good
Unit Mix/Rents:
                      Unit Type         Size              Rent      Rent/SF
                      2 BR-1b           796 SF            $560      $0.68
        Phase I       2 BR-2b           900 SF            $590      $0.66
        Market Rate   2 BR-2b TH        1,050 SF          $650      $0.62
        Units         2 BR-2b           1,194 SF          $725      $0.61
                      3 BR-2b TH        1,280 SF          $825      $0.64

        Phase II      Unit Type         Size              Rent      Rent/SF
        Market Rate   2 BR-2b TH        1,121 SF          $760      $0.68
        Units         3BR-2b TH         1,427 SF          $865      $0.61

Percent Occupied:     95%
Deposit:              One month rent
Utilities:            Tenant pays gas and electric.
Interior Amenities:   All appliances, large closets, mini-blinds, washer/dryer, patios/balconies, some units with
                      fireplaces and bay windows
Complex Amenities:    Off-street parking, pool, and carports (available)

Comments:             Well-maintained, two-story, wood frame, vinyl/brick siding apartment complex located
                      just east of the Central West End, near St. Louis University and Grand Center.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                        20
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


DEMAND ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Surveys of modern, professionally managed, market rate and low to moderate income rental de-
velopments in and around the Fifth Ward finds that occupancy levels remain high and, when new
product enters the market, it is absorbed quickly. Therefore, despite demographic projections
that forecast continued population loss, there is a pent up demand for new, quality multifamily
housing. People are seeking improved housing conditions within their neighborhoods and many
potentially new and former residents are interested in the community. And it stands to reason
that improved housing options as a part of a comprehensive redevelopment program would slow
or stem the population losses projected for the next several years.

Data compiled about price increases and sales activity for existing and rehabbed housing in the
Fifth Ward show increases in value over time. Furthermore, new single family construction
within the Ward has met with success. Public records show that 17 homes on N. 18th at Hogan
Street, for example, sold for prices in the range of $83,650 to $108,000 between 1996 and 1998.
Some of these home are part of Choate Construction’s Mullanphy Square. The first phase of this
development includes 38 market rate homes ranging with asking prices from $108,500 to
$128,500. The developer reports that all 38 units have been sold and are occupied. Many of the
Phase I residents came from apartments in the city but a number are from other areas throughout
the region. A second phase of 15 homes is planned on the eastside of Hogan and Madison.
These units will be priced from $110,500 to $128,500.

In order to estimate the scale of housing demand that could be generated, DSI looked at house-
hold and income data for Ward residents and residents in surrounding areas.

   The primary market area is the combination of zip codes 63106, 63113, 63107, and 63115,
    all within the City of St. Louis.

   The secondary market, which includes parts of St. Louis County, consists of zip codes 63101,
    63102, 63103, 63104, 63108, 63110, 63112, 63120, 63147, 63138, 63137, 63136, 63121,
    63133, 63114.

As the following table shows, while the number of households in the $25,000 to $49,999 income
bracket are projected to decline from 1999 to 2004, those in earning $75,000 or more are pro-
jected to increase dramatically. In fact, the number of households earning over $75,000 in both
market areas is projected to increase by a total of almost 5,000 households. Overall, the net in-
crease in the number of households earning over $25,000 is projected to be 924.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                           21
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

                                           Primary                                Secondary
                                 1999              2004   % Change        1999           2004      % Change      Net Total Change
$25,000 to $49,999             6,540              5,934     -9.3%       35,028        31,086        -11.3%                -4,548
$50,000 to $74,999             2,566              2,694      5.0%       19,649        19,997          1.8%                   476
$75,000 to $124,999            1,329              1,664     25.2%       10,648        13,380         25.7%                 3,067
$125,000 or More                 313                551     76.0%        2,927         4,618         57.8%                 1,929
Total                        10,748              10,843      0.9%       68,252        69,081          1.2%                   924

Source: Claritas, Inc.; Development Strategies


Existing households in both market areas can be expected, therefore, to move into new dwellings
too, because of the poor quality of the existing housing stock.

According to the 1990 U.S. Census, 50 percent of all occupied housing units in the primary mar-
ket area were built before 1940, while almost 17 percent were built in the 1940s. This is evi-
dence that many homes are probably lacking in contemporary systems and may be functionally
obsolete. Furthermore, households in general are seeking, in the Fifth Ward and other neighbor-
hoods around the city, modern housing with similar amenities found in suburban markets. Re-
search that DSI has conducted in other St. Louis City neighborhoods consistently finds that
people would like to live in safe urban areas in housing that offers modern conveniences typical-
ly found in suburban areas. Moreover, they strongly prefer new or substantially renovated
homes, rather than less expensive homes requiring a lot of “sweat equity”.

We estimate that 1.5 percent of existing households (as of 1999 population estimates) in the pri-
mary market and 0.5 percent of existing households in the secondary market can be expected to
move into new market rate housing in the Fifth Ward. This is equivalent to 160 primary area
households and 500 secondary market households.

                                            Primary                                Secondary
                                 1999    Capture Rate      # Captured      1999     Capture Rate    # Captured    Total Captured
$25,000 to $49,999             6,540              1.5%            98     35,028           0.5%            175               273
$50,000 to $74,999             2,566              1.5%            38     19,649           0.5%             98               137
$75,000 to $124,999            1,329              1.5%            20     10,648           0.5%             53                73
$125,000 or More                 313              1.5%             5      2,927           0.5%             15                19
Total                        10,748                              161     68,252                           341               502

Source: Claritas, Inc.; Development Strategies
Based on population and income projections for the primary and secondary markets, the below-
average condition of the existing housing stock, and the overall demographic and economic
trends affecting the Fifth Ward, we project the number of new housing units that could be sup-
ported over the next five years to be 350 to 450 (non-subsidized). We further project this to in-
crease to an additional 400 to 500 households over the subsequent five years. These units should
be offered in a variety of urban styles including single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, and
market-rate apartments.

There is potential for 50 to 75 of these units to be higher end housing priced at $200,000 or
more. However, higher end housing would generally need to follow, rather than precede, reno-

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                                                              22
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

vation activity and construction of more moderately priced housing as well as the completion of
other improvements. Alternatively, the creation of a major open space, park, or golf course
amenity can provide the basis for initiating higher value housing much sooner. The proximity to
the many new and renovated schools in the Fifth Ward is also a critical factor that supports ex-
panding a residential base and broadening the Ward’s household income range.

New development should be built on a scale that will create a critical mass. New developments,
whether a new urbanist style or a more traditional suburban subdivision style, must be recogniz-
able as a “place” with 30 to 50 units at an initial minimum, depending upon the physical layout
of the area.

The desire to bring families that are more affluent back to the City from North St. Louis County,
in particular, is a reasonable goal. The recently completed plans for downtown housing, howev-
er, cannot be overlooked for their potential impact on the Fifth Ward. Housing options described
in the Downtown Now! plan could offer direct and strong competition for the some of the types
of residents the Fifth Ward is seeking to attract. While this does not mean that there is not a base
of households that would prefer living in Fifth Ward neighborhoods, the planned new develop-
ment activity in downtown St. Louis could diminish the Ward’s overall market potential.

The issue of competition from downtown for housing options is particularly salient for the con-
cept of high-rise housing development. Plans for housing along the river in Laclede’s Landing,
for instance, is almost certain to enter the market before such housing would enter the Fifth
Ward. On the other hand, downtown is not deemed an ideal location for single family homes or
low density housing. Here, the Fifth Ward can complement the downtown plan by broadening
the housing options in the greater downtown area and, thus, broadening the market of prospec-
tive households.


RETAIL MARKET

CONVENIENCE RETAIL AND RESTAURANTS

While demand estimates for retail space were not explicitly part of the contracted scope of ser-
vices, it is possible to make gross calculations to estimate the current market for convenience re-
tail space (merchandise found typically in grocery stores and drug stores).

Current residents and employees in the Fifth Ward generate demand for about 100,000 to
125,000 square feet of convenience retail space. While this indicates that there is demand to
support a supermarket and additional convenience shopping space in the district, it also means
the current Schnucks store is adequately scaled and would probably be replaced rather than aug-
mented in a retail redevelopment program.

It is important to note that there is a market-based problem with the current Schnucks location.
The store is situated far enough east that the primary market area for the store is truncated by I-
70 and the Mississippi River. The proposed relocation near 14th and Cass would be an improve-
ment thus “rounding out” the geographic market area.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                           23
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


The success of the new Schnucks at Union Boulevard and Natural Bridge Road (City Plaza
shopping center) confirms the latent demand for modern retailing in urban neighborhoods. This
new Schnucks is about 60,000 square feet in size and there are another 20,000 square feet of ac-
companying support retail space. The support space is fully occupied by national chain and
franchise tenants. The rental rates for this development range from $14.00 to $18.00 per square
foot, net of taxes, insurance, and utilities (NNN). The development leased up over about a year
and a half. The center’s broker reports estimates, that independent retailers in the surrounding
area are currently paying rents in the $7.00 to $10.00 per square foot range.

A rough analysis of potential demand for restaurant space in the Ward indicates that current resi-
dential and employee spending power could support about 35,000 to 40,000 square feet of res-
taurant space. Over time, if the market adds residents and employees and improvements attract
conventioneers and dome attendees through the Fifth Ward, this level of demand could rise. Re-
tail development is typically a component that follows, rather than leads in the redevelopment
process.

BIG BOX RETAIL

There are several formidable of concerns regarding a “big box” department store development on
the eastside of I-70. Principal among these is that the highway, itself, would effectively cut the
development off from the bulk of the market. Interstate 70 could act as a very strong barrier
without superior, clear access and visibility. While the completion of the new Illinois-Missouri
bridge is a long way off, it may be a necessary factor for big box retailing to succeed at this site.
The bridge could open up the east side of the market area to provide access for needed customers
from both sides of the river. Our recommendation, therefore, is to retain this idea as a long term
option (i.e., do not discard it) but not to include it in the first 10-year implementation program.

For reference, it is valuable to keep in mind that the downtown plan originally called for big-box
retailing in the Mill Creek area on the south edge of downtown. While this concept was not re-
moved from the plan, it was shifted to the long-range options. This was, in part, due to the
trouble St. Louis Market Place, on Manchester road just east of McCausland Avenue, has expe-
rienced as well as to market truncation problems to the north and east, as referenced above.

St. Louis Market Place is a big box “power center” anchored by K-mart, Sam’s Club, and Office
Max, and is about ten years old. The overall development is only 70 to 75 percent occupied and
there are unconfirmed reports that the Sam’s Club outlet is one of the worst performers of the
chain. Since St. Louis Market Place faces these types of problems, despite the fact that its mar-
ket area is surrounded by households with higher income levels and, therefore, spending power,
than the Fifth Ward suggests that this type of development is not immediately feasible.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                            24
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS


HOTEL MARKET
The greater downtown area is anticipating the addition of over 2,000 new hotel rooms in over the
next couple of years:
   The Marriott Renaissance Hotel plans over 1,000 rooms as the new convention center head-
    quarters hotel on Washington Avenue.
   The Drury Plaza just opened 364 new rooms and Fourth and Market Streets.
   Westin Hotel will add 224 rooms at Cupples Station west of Busch Stadium.
   Crowne Plaza will convert part of the Edison Warehouse into 292 hotel suites.
   Homewood Suites is converting part of the Merchants Laclede Building at 410 Olive into 81
    units.
   The 157-room Crown Hotel in East St. Louis opened recently adjacent to the Casino Queen
    on the Mississippi Riverfront.

This level of development will most likely spark renovation activity in existing hotels as they
work to compete with the new product entering the market. The Fifth Ward’s Plan concept of
small, family-style hotels, such as the Holiday Inn Express, therefore, needs to be evaluated in
light of this growing diversity of hotel offerings in the greater downtown area.

The Fifth Ward offers potential family visitors easier access and parking without the traffic of
downtown St. Louis. At the same time, access to downtown’s attractions and those of the rest of
the region is excellent. Shuttle buses to night events could increase the use of Fifth Ward hotels
in order to alleviate market concerns about crime.

Land values in the Fifth Ward also suggest that it might be able to compete with many down-
town offerings with lower room rates.

It is also possible that families would not be attracted to hotels in the Fifth Ward location for
several reasons:

   While many out-of-town families attend baseball games, this is not necessarily the case with
    football games. The high price of tickets for football games limits attendance by budget con-
    scious families. In other words, deeper analysis is needed to determine the depth of the po-
    tential market well beyond baseball attractions. Individuals with the resources to attend foot-
    ball games would also be likely to stay in in-town hotels, near nightlife.

   While hotel/entertainment’s proximity to the City Museum, has been identified as a location-
    al advantage by some, it should be noted that many out-of town families visit St. Louis to see
    a number of venues, such as the Arch, the Zoo, the Science Center, the Botanical Garden,
    and the Cardinals as well as the City Museum. Choices about where to say could be tied to
    any one of these venues. Furthermore, there are a number of family-style hotel options in
    suburban St. Louis County as well as along I-55/70 in Collinsville, an environment that may
    be more familiar to Holiday Inn Express-type clientele.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                              25
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

   Conventioneers do not often bring family members, although some of the larger conventions
    will tend to bring novice or inexperienced conventioneers with relatively few non-personal
    resources to spend on lodging. Access to America’s Center from the Fifth Ward at more af-
    fordable rates could be a strong marketing theme.

ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The entertainment component anticipated in the plan would need the support of the hotels and
tourists to succeed. Furthermore, the family-style entertainment district described by the plan
(bowling, movies, and sports activities) would face competition from existing venues (such as
Planet Hollywood and the Hard Rock Café) as well as plans for future entertainment venues in
the downtown area (e.g., Washington Avenue and the Gateway Mall) which are the stated priori-
ty areas of a major portion of the region’s leadership.

Therefore, while ideas about creating inviting entryways and connections from the Fifth Ward to
the TWA Dome, the Convention center, and Laclede’s Landing could be implemented in the
short run, the hotel and entertainment features would likely need to be phased in later on after
subsequent market and political analyses.

INDUSTRIAL MARKET
The region’s industrial market is very healthy with absorption, construction, and lease rates on
the rise and vacancies on the decline. As of third quarter 1999, the region’s industrial vacancy
rate was only 4.5 percent and, in the City of St. Louis, industrial vacancy was only 3.4 percent.
CB Richard Ellis estimates that the city’s industrial market accounted for nearly 38 percent of
the region’s 1999 industrial absorption. Most of the city’s industrial space is older, owner-
occupied warehouse and manufacturing facilities that achieve lease rates of $2.00 to $3.00 per
square foot. There is, therefore, a lack of functional space for industrial firms seeking to upgrade
and expand within the city.

Our data confirm that manufacturing, business repair services, and wholesale trade industries
employ a large share of the Fifth Ward employees. The Ward’s access advantages (key among
them access to highways and arterial roads) and proximity to downtown are appealing to these
types of industries. The ongoing success of Balke-Brown’s industrial park also points to the
market’s appetite for new industrial space in the city.

Balke-Brown is currently completing a 150,000 square foot industrial building in the Ward. One
50,000 square foot tenant has already been secured. The development is projected to total
470,000 square feet of light industrial and warehouse space upon completion and the developer
expects the entire development could be completed within three years. Lease rates in this devel-
opment are $4.25 per square foot including taxes and insurance, which is similar to rates found in
suburban industrial areas such as Earth City.

Pent up citywide demand, along with the need to relocate Ward businesses as the new bridge is
constructed indicate that there is plenty of additional market potential for the industrial develop-

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                             26
5TH WARD PLAN ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS

ment. An ideal location for this type of development would be east of I-70 and north of the pro-
posed retail and residential areas. Ideally, the interstate would serve as valuable barrier between
industrial uses and residential/commercial uses.

Over the next five years we estimate that 10 to 15 acres of land should be developed with indus-
trial/light manufacturing uses. Assuming a conservative floor area ratio (FAR) of 0.20, this
would be equivalent to 90,000 to 130,000 square feet of building area.




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES                                                                           27

				
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