City of Rye, New York
Financial Forecast 2004 - 2006
Department of Finance Michael A. Genito, City Comptroller July 16, 2003
Disclaimer
The assumptions, estimates, forecasts and analyses used in this presentation are those of the Rye City Comptroller. No representation is made as to the fitness, merchantability, or use of the information presented for any purpose.
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Forecasting
To calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data; to indicate as likely to occur.
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Limitations
Uncertainty about the future
Unknown factors
Changes to current factors Changes in policy Selection of criteria and assumptions
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Funds Considered
This forecast focuses on the General Fund, but includes the impact of other funds on the revenues and expenditures of the General Fund.
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Assumptions
Cost of living (2.5% CPI)
2003 forecast
Projects and vehicles Taxable assessed valuation Specific major revenues All other revenues
Continued…
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Assumptions (cont’d)
Salaries and wages
Equipment
Materials and supplies Employee benefits Transfers out to other funds
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Tax Rate
T AX R AT E P E R $1,000 T AV $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006
Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Taxable Assessed Value
TAXABLE ASSESSED VALUATION $134,200,000 $134,150,000 $134,100,000 $134,050,000 $134,000,000 $133,950,000 $133,900,000 Forecast 2003 Forecast 2004 Forecast 2005 Forecast 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Sales and Use Taxes
S ALE S AND US E T AXE S $1,560,000 $1,540,000 $1,520,000 $1,500,000 $1,480,000 $1,460,000 $1,440,000 $1,420,000 $1,400,000 $1,380,000 F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Charges for Services
CHARGES FOR SERVICES $1,020,000 $1,000,000 $980,000 $960,000 $940,000 $920,000 $900,000 $880,000 Forecast 2003 Forecast 2004 Forecast 2005 Forecast 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Licenses and Permits
LIC E NS E S AND P E R MIT S $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
State Aid
S T AT E AID $2,400,000 $2,350,000 $2,300,000 $2,250,000 $2,200,000 $2,150,000 $2,100,000 $2,050,000 $2,000,000 $1,950,000 $1,900,000 F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Salaries and Wages
S ALAR IE S AND W AG E S $11,500,000 $11,000,000 $10,500,000 $10,000,000 $9,500,000 $9,000,000 F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Materials and Supplies
MAT E R IALS AND S UP P LIE S $1,660,000 $1,640,000 $1,620,000 $1,600,000 $1,580,000 $1,560,000 $1,540,000 $1,520,000 F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Contractual Costs
C O NT R AC T UAL C O S T S $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Employee Benefits
E MP LO YE E B E NE F IT S $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast
July 16, 2003
Transfers to Other Funds
T R ANS F E R S T O O T HE R F UND S $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $F orec as t 2003 F orec as t 2004 F orec as t 2005 F orec as t 2006 Year
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Quotable Quotes
“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.” - Marcus Aurelius Antoninus, Meditations
“The future ain’t what it used to be.” – Yogi Berra
City of Rye, New York 2004-2006 Financial Forecast July 16, 2003
Financial Forecast 2004 - 2006
The Financial Forecast 2004-2006 document is available at City Hall and on the city’s website http://www.ryeny.gov.