SUMMARY TABLES
This set of Summary Tables corrects the omission of minus signs in this section of the Budget . It replaces the entire Summary Tables section (pp. 393–417).
393
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–1. Budget Totals
2002 In billions of dollars: Outlays ............................................................... Receipts ............................................................. Deficit/surplus .................................................... Debt held by the public..................................... As a percent of GDP: Outlays ............................................................... Receipts ............................................................. Deficit/surplus .................................................... Debt held by the public..................................... 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2,052 1,946 −106 3,477 19.8 18.8 −1.0 33.6
2,128 2,048 −80 3,570 19.5 18.8 −0.7 32.7
2,189 2,175 −14 3,600 19.0 18.9 −0.1 31.2
2,277 2,338 61 3,548 18.7 19.2 0.5 29.2
2,369 2,455 86 3,470 18.5 19.2 0.7 27.1
2,468 2,572 104 3,379 18.3 19.1 0.8 25.1
395
396
Table S–2. Budget Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 Outlays: Discretionary: Defense ......................................................... Non-defense ................................................. Subtotal, discretionary ..................................... Emergency Response Fund ............................ Mandatory: Social Security .............................................. Medicare ........................................................ Medicaid ........................................................ Other mandatory .......................................... Subtotal, mandatory ......................................... Net interest ........................................................ Total Outlays ........................................................... Receipts .................................................................. Unified Surplus....................................................... On-budget surplus ............................................ Off-budget surplus ............................................ * $500 million or less 2003–2012
336 382 718 22 456 223 145 310 1,133 178 2,052 1,946 −106 −262 155
368 405 773 16 472 231 159 297 1,159 181 2,128 2,048 −80 −259 179
390 418 808 7 491 241 170 283 1,185 189 2,189 2,175 −14 −208 195
412 423 835 3 515 257 184 291 1,248 190 2,277 2,338 61 −156 217
428 429 857 1 542 278 200 303 1,323 188 2,369 2,455 86 −142 228
442 437 880 * 571 302 217 313 1,402 185 2,468 2,572 104 −139 243
2,041 2,112 4,153 27 2,591 1,308 930 1,488 6,318 933 11,431 11,588 157 −904 1,061
4,531 4,454 8,984 27 6,001 3,141 2,315 3,243 14,700 1,767 25,478 26,481 1,002 −1,464 2,466
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–3. Impact of Budget Policy on the Surplus
(In billions of dollars) 2003 Current baseline surplus ...................................... Budget proposals: Defense and homeland security ..................... Strengthening Medicare ................................... Farm bill reauthorization .................................. Provide incentives for charitable giving ......... Health tax credits .............................................. Reform unemployment ..................................... Extend expiring tax provisions ........................ Other proposals................................................. Related debt service......................................... Subtotal, budget proposals ................................. Budget surplus/deficit, pre-economic security plan ..................................................................... Bipartisan economic security plan ...................... Budget surplus/deficit, including economic security plan ...................................................... 51 −31 −2 −7 −2 −1 −1 −3 −6 −1 −54 −3 −77 −80 2004 109 −38 −3 −7 −2 −7 −1 −3 1 −4 −65 43 −57 −14 2005 169 −45 −5 −7 −3 −9 −3 −5 −4 −7 −88 81 −20 61 Total 2003–2007 764 −224 −50 −34 −15 −36 −18 −26 −20 −43 −466 298 −141 157
397
398
Table S–4. Discretionary Totals
(Budget authority; dollar amounts in billions) 2001 2002 2003 Change 2002–2003 Delta Discretionary budget authority: Homeland security ............................................... Department of Defense ....................................... Other operations of government ........................ Total, discretionary budget authority 1 ............. Adjustments, contingent upon adoption of proposal: Full funding of federal employee retirement costs .................................................................. Total, including contingent adjustments ................ Emergency Response Fund: War on terrorism .................................................. Homeland security ............................................... Other September 11th response ........................ Total, Emergency Response Fund .....................
1 2
Percent
10 303 330 643
12 328 348 688 2
25 366 355 746
13 38 7 59
111 12 2 9
8 651 13 3 5 20
9 696 3 8 9 20
9 755 10 — — 10
Excludes budget authority associated with the mass transit budget category. Includes a $1.7 billion upward adjustment, from the 2002 appropriated level, for discretionary spending offset by mandatory savings enacted in appropriations bills.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–5. Homeland Security
(Budget authority in billions of dollars) 2001 Total, Homeland Security Supporting first responders .................................................. Defending against biological terrorism................................ Securing our borders............................................................. Sharing information and using information technology to secure the homeland ........................................................ Aviation security ..................................................................... Other homeland security....................................................... Defense and mandatory/fee funded programs included above: Department of Defense (DoD) ............................................. Mandatory/fee funded ........................................................... Total, Homeland Security, non-DoD discretionary ...... Emergency Response Fund ................................................. −4.0 −1.5 10.5 2.5 −4.7 −2.9 11.9 8.1 −7.8 −4.7 25.2 — 16.0 0.3 1.4 7.6 0.1 0.4 6.3 2002 19.5 0.3 1.4 8.8 0.2 1.5 7.4 2003 37.7 3.5 5.9 10.6 0.7 4.8 12.2
399
400
Table S–6. Year-to-Year Percentage Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority
Agency 1998 to 1999 4 29 6 −3 7 12 12 −1 23 5 3 −14 12 2 −2 5 18 * 7 16 * 2 6 1999 to 2000 4 61 5 2 −1 9 −6 6 2 2 −20 13 −2 9 1 1 37 * 6 7 2 6 4 2000 to 2001 13 −41 5 37 13 19 34 21 −4 13 36 28 16 7 14 9 −38 5 13 1 8 4 10 2001 to 2002 * 2 8 24 4 10 4 * 7 1 2 −7 5 6 −4 1 26 4 8 −15 6 9 7 2002 to 2003 * * 12 1 5 9 7 * 4 −1 −7 19 5 7 −10 2 114 1 5 2 5 6 9 Average Growth 1998–2003 4 4 7 11 5 12 9 5 6 4 1 6 7 6 −1 4 22 2 8 2 4 6 7
Agriculture........................................................................................... Commerce 1 ....................................................................................... Defense ............................................................................................... Education 2 ......................................................................................... Energy ................................................................................................. Health and Human Services ............................................................ Housing and Urban Development 3................................................. Interior ................................................................................................. State and International Assistance Programs 4 ............................ Justice ................................................................................................. Labor ................................................................................................... Transportation .................................................................................... Treasury .............................................................................................. Veterans Affairs .................................................................................. Corps of Engineers ........................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency Operating Program ................ Federal Emergency Management Agency..................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... National Science Foundation ........................................................... Small Business Administration ........................................................ Social Security Administration ......................................................... Smithsonian Institution ...................................................................... Total (excludes full funding of federal employee retirement costs and Emergency Response Fund)................................
*0.5 percent or less 1 2000 Commerce data includes funding for Census 2000. 2 2002 funding includes a $1.3 billion supplemental proposal for Pell Grants. 3 1998 and 1999 have been adjusted for reclassification of Federal Housing Administration receipts. 4 International Affairs Program totals do not include P.L. 480 Title II food aid, which is included in the totals for Agriculture; 1999 data is also adjusted to remove $18.2 billion in one-time funding for the International Monetary Fund.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–7. Discretionary Budget Authority by Agency
(In billions of dollars) Agency 2001 Actual 2.9 4.1 19.8 5.2 305.6 40.1 20.2 54.5 28.4 10.5 21.6 12.0 7.8 18.0 15.1 23.2 4.8 0.1 7.9 (3.9) 0.3 2.4 0.5 12.6 14.4 4.4 0.2 0.9 6.3 6.8 — 650.7 Estimates 2002 2003 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.1 19.8 19.8 5.3 5.3 330.8 369.3 49.8 1 50.3 21.0 21.9 59.8 65.3 29.5 31.5 10.5 10.5 21.9 21.8 12.3 11.4 8.9 9.2 16.6 19.8 15.8 16.6 24.7 26.4 4.6 4.1 0.2 0.2 8.0 7.7 (3.9) (4.0) 0.3 0.3 3.1 6.6 0.6 0.6 13.1 13.9 14.9 15.1 4.8 5.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 6.7 7.0 6.3 6.3 –1.3 –0.4 696.5 755.4 Change: 2002–2003 0.4 0.6 –* * 38.4 0.5 1.0 5.5 2.0 * –0.1 –0.9 0.4 3.2 0.8 1.8 –0.5 –* –0.3 (0.1) 0.1 3.5 –* 0.7 0.2 0.2 * * 0.3 * 0.9 59.0
Legislative Branch .................................................... Judicial Branch .......................................................... Agriculture.................................................................. Commerce ................................................................. Defense-Military ........................................................ Education ................................................................... Energy ........................................................................ Health and Human Services ................................... Housing and Urban Development .......................... Interior ........................................................................ Justice ........................................................................ Labor .......................................................................... State ........................................................................... Transportation ........................................................... Treasury ..................................................................... Veterans Affairs ......................................................... Corps of Engineers .................................................. Other Defense Civil Programs ................................ Environmental Protection Agency .......................... Operating program............................................... Executive Office of the President ........................... Federal Emergency Management Agency............ General Services Administration ............................ International Assistance Programs ........................ National Aeronautics and Space Administration .. National Science Foundation .................................. Office of Personnel Management ........................... Small Business Administration ............................... Social Security Administration ................................ Other Independent Agencies .................................. Allowances................................................................. Subtotal ................................................................ Remove contingent adjustment for full funding of –8.1 –8.5 –9.0 –0.4 federal employee retirement costs .................... Total....................................................................... 642.6 687.9 2 746.5 58.5 20.0 20.0 10.0 –10.0 Emergency Response Fund ................................... * $50 million or less 1 Includes a $1.3 billion supplemental proposal for Pell Grants. 2 Includes a $1.7 billion upward adjustment, from the 2002 appropriated level, for discretionary spending offset by mandatory savings enacted in appropriations bills.
401
402
Table S–8. Discretionary Proposals By Appropriations Subcommittee
(Budget authority in billions of dollars) Appropriations Subcommittee Agriculture and Rural Development ....................... Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary ....... Defense ...................................................................... District of Columbia .................................................. Energy and Water Development............................. Foreign Operations ................................................... Interior and Related Agencies ............................... Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education .............................................................. Legislative .................................................................. Military Construction ................................................ Transportation and Related Agencies ................... Treasury and General Government........................ Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development ......................................................... Allowances................................................................. Total with full funding of federal employee retirement costs ............................................... Remove full funding of federal employee retirement costs.................................................... Total ....................................................................... Emergency Response Fund ................................... 2001 Actual 16.7 39.7 296.6 0.5 24.4 14.6 19.5 110.5 2.8 9.1 17.8 16.7 81.7 — 650.7 −8.1 642.6 20.0 2002 Estimate 16.9 40.5 320.5 0.4 24.8 15.5 19.6 124.6 3.1 10.5 16.4 17.9 85.8 — 696.5 −8.5 687.9 20.0 2003 Proposed 17.2 41.2 360.4 0.4 25.3 16.1 19.5 131.2 3.5 9.0 19.7 18.7 93.5 −0.4 755.4 −9.0 746.5 10.0 Change: 2002–2003 0.3 0.7 40.0 * 0.5 0.7 −0.1 6.6 0.4 −1.6 3.3 0.9 7.7 −0.4 59.0 −0.4 58.5 −10.0
1
*$50 million or less 1 Includes a $1.7 billion upward adjustment, from the 2002 appropriated level, for discretionary spending offset by mandatory savings enacted in appropriations bills.
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–9. Mandatory Proposals
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Strengthening Medicare ................................................................ Farm Bill 1 .......................................................................................... Bipartisan Economic Security Plan 2 ......................................... Medicaid/SCHIP: Medicaid/SCHIP reform ............................................................... Rationalizing prescription drug payments ................................. Welfare reform: TANF reauthorization.................................................................... Food Stamps reauthorization ...................................................... Child support enforcement: Federal collections and payments to States......................... Food Stamps savings .............................................................. Medicaid savings ...................................................................... Subtotal, child support enforcement ................................. Supplemental Security Income .............................................. Medicaid savings ................................................................. Subtotal, SSI Subtotal, excluding Food Stamps reauthorization Total, welfare reform .................................................. Other Proposals: Agriculture: Increase timber competition (use of sealed bids)................ Non-timber interests bidding .................................................. Collect fair market value from ski resorts ............................. Accelerate repayment to reforestation trust fund and payments from special use permits to enhance environmental protection for lands used by ski resorts.. Provide permanent recreation fee authority ......................... — 4,200 27,000 — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1,680 7,271 8,000 348 −290 46 29 −66 — — −66 — — — −20 9 3,375 7,019 1,500 125 −650 314 148 −53 — — −53 −2 −3 −5 256 404 5,068 6,688 — 309 −1,090 270 262 60 −37 −5 18 −7 −11 −18 270 532 17,485 6,727 — 144 −1,620 340 329 116 −47 −15 54 −13 −25 −38 356 685 22,497 6,774 — 161 −1,800 387 355 119 −49 −20 50 −19 −43 −62 375 730 50,105 34,479 9,500 1,087 −5,450 1,358 1,123 176 −133 −40 3 −41 −82 −123 1,238 2,361 190,159 67,576 9,500 1,781 −17,640 3,069 4,191 798 −402 −210 186 −262 −641 −903 2,352 6,543
— — —
— — —
−5 −5 −3
−10 −5 −10
−14 −10 −14
−15 −10 −15
−44 −30 −42
−139 −80 −117
— —
— —
13 —
25 −10
38 1
40 1
116 −8
336 −3
403
404
Table S–9. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Education: Teacher loan forgiveness ........................................................ Energy: Power marketing associations to directly fund Corps of Engineers’ operations and maintenance expenses ...... Increase BPA’s borrowing authority....................................... ANWR, lease bonuses ............................................................ Health and Human Services: Abstinence education .............................................................. Interior: ANWR, lease bonuses: State of Alaska’s share: Receipts ........................................................................... Expenditure ..................................................................... Federal share ....................................................................... Provide permanent recreation fee authority ......................... Correct trust accounting deficiencies in individual Indian money investments ............................................................. Labor: Reform Unemployment Insurance ......................................... Refinance Black Lung Disability Trust Fund debt: Black Lung Disability Trust Fund ....................................... Treasury’s interest receipts ................................................ Propose reforms of FECA for future beneficiaries .............. Redirect H-1B training ............................................................. Treasury: Outlay effect of refundable tax credits...................................
—
45
14
17
18
18
112
211
— — — —
149 — — 14
149 113 −1,200 37
150 498 — 42
150 89 — 47
150 — — 50
748 700 −1,200 190
1,498 700 −1,200 440
— — — — — — — — — — —
— — — — 7 — 1,606 −1,606 −3 80 832
−1,201 1,201 −1 — — — −446 446 −4 −15 5,634
−1 1 −1 −17 — 319 −435 435 −6 −48 6,991
−101 101 −101 7 — 1,929 −430 430 −5 −17 7,535
−1 1 −1 48 — 3,072 −427 427 −5 — 7,654
−1,304 1,304 −104 38 7 5,320 −132 132 −23 — 28,646
−1,587 1,587 −387 490 7 21,812 −2,184 2,184 −46 —
SUMMARY TABLES
74,300
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–9. Mandatory Proposals—Continued
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Veterans Affairs: IRS income verification on means tested veterans and survivors benefits ................................................................ Army Corps of Engineers: Recreation user fee increase ................................................. FCC: Shift spectrum auction deadlines: Spectrum receipts ............................................................... Spectrum relocation ............................................................ Impose annual analog fees after 2006 .................................. FEMA: Reform National Flood Insurance ................................. OPM: Simplify computation of annuities under the CSRS for individuals with part-time service ...................................... Multi-Agency: Authorize spending of reimbursements for spectrum relocating costs .................................................................... Indirect impact of other proposals (third scorecard): Enact FECA surcharge ........................................................... Impact of accrual accounting.................................................. Total, mandatory proposals ..........................................................
1
— —
— −6
−6 −1 −3,300 −50 — −75
−6 −1 −2,700 — — −115
−6 −1 −4,700 — — −165
−6 4
−24 −5 −6,700 — −500 −625
−54 15 −6,700 — −2,680 −2,080
— — — —
4,000 50 — −43
— — −500 −227
—
3
8
14
20
27
72
313
— — — 31,200
100 — −34 22,213
50 −1 −23 13,102
100 −5 198 16,927
165 −7 420 28,800
100 −7 618 39,358
515 −20 1,179 120,400
715 −50 7,686 352,906
Excludes Food Stamps reauthorization of $4,191 million over 10 years shown under the welfare reform and the receipt effect of FFARRM account tax incentives of $1,233 million over 10 years shown in Table S–10. 2 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here. The receipt effect is −$62,000 million for 2002, −$65,000 million for 2003, −$47,000 million for 2004, −$9,500 million for 2005, $17,000 million for 2006, $18,000 million for 2007, −$87,000 million for 2003–2007, and −$43,500 million for 2003–2012.
405
406
S–10. Effect of Proposals on Receipts
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 Bipartisan Economic Security Plan 1 ......................................... Tax Incentives: Provide incentives for charitable giving: Provide charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions ......................................................................... Raise the cap on corporate charitable contributions........... Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory ..................................... Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations ........................................................................... Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts ................................................ Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property .................................... Allow expedited consideration of applications for exempt status 2 .................................................................................. Strengthen and reform education: Provide refundable tax credit for certain costs of attending a different school for pupils assigned to failing public schools 3 ............................................................................... Allow teachers to deduct out-of-pocket classroom expenses .............................................................................. Invest in health care: Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 4 ........................................................................... Provide an above-the-line deduction for long-term care insurance premiums............................................................ −62,000 2003 −65,000 2004 −47,500 2005 −9,500 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 17,000 18,000 −87,000 −43,500
−570 −93 −24 −10 −122 −1 −8 —
−1,429 −192 −169 −49 −177 −3 −11 —
−1,437 −205 −121 −54 −181 −3 −13 —
−2,288 −219 −127 −59 −189 −4 −17 —
−3,567 −230 −139 −66 −198 −4 −21 —
−3,591 −238 −156 −72 −205 −4 −25 —
−12,312 −1,084 −712 −300 −950 −18 −87 —
−32,636 −2,632 −1,730 −789 −2,101 −48 −282 —
— —
−10 —
−24 −16 −1,689 −406
−38 −163 −2,811 −605
−52 −191 −2,774 −1,222
−62 −207 −2,951 −2,158
−186 −577 −10,470 −4,719
−219 −1,718 −29,116 −20,730
— —
−245 −328
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
S–10. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Allow up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement to be carried forward to the next year........................................................................................ Provide additional choice with regard to unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement ....................... Permanently extend and reform Archer MSAs .................... Provide an additional personal exemption to home caretakers of family members ........................................... Assist Americans with disabilities: Exclude from income the value of employer-provided computers, software and peripherals ............................... Help farmers and fishermen manage economic downturns: Establish FFARRM savings accounts ................................... Increase housing opportunities: Provide tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing ................................................................................. Encourage saving: Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) ............ Protect the environment: Permanently extend expensing of brownfields remediation costs ...................................................................................... Exclude 50 percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes ....................................................... Increase energy production and promote energy conservation: Extend and modify tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources ....................................................................
— — — —
— — — −314
−441 −23 −43 −383 −2 −133 −76 −267 −193 −44
−723 −39 −468 −362 −6 −350 −302 −319 −306 −90
−782 −45 −530 −345 −6 −244 −715 −300 −299 −94
−830 −52 −607 −348 −6 −171 −1,252 −255 −289 −98
−2,776 −159 −1,648 −1,752 −20 −898 −2,352 −1,265 −1,087 −328
−7,819 −566 −5,691 −3,957 −52 −1,233 −15,257 −1,722 −2,390 −918
—
—
—
—
— —
−7 −124
— —
— −2
−92
−227
−303
−212
−143
−146
−1,031
−1,779
407
408
S–10. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 −3 −89 −21 −12 −97 — −130 — — — 2003 −6 −156 −80 −34 −208 — −192 −19 −21 60 2004 −7 −168 −181 −59 −235 — −213 −23 −86 49 2005 −8 −178 −349 −86 −238 — −226 −25 −109 50 2006 −17 −188 −530 −120 −296 — −58 −7 −131 52 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Provide tax credit for residential solar energy systems .... Modify treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds........ Provide tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles ........................................................................ Provide tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas .. Provide tax credit for combined heat and power property Provide excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol 2 ........... Promote trade: Extend and expand Andean trade preferences 5 ............... Initiate a new trade preference program for Southeast Europe 5 .............................................................................. Implement free trade agreements with Chile and Singapore 5......................................................................... Improve tax administration: Implement IRS administrative reforms ................................ Reform unemployment insurance: Reform unemployment insurance administrative financing 5 ........................................................................... Expiring Provisions: Extend provisions that expired in 2001 for two years: Work opportunity tax credit ................................................... Welfare-to-work tax credit .................................................... Minimum tax relief for individuals ......................................... −24 −199 −763 −140 −139 — — — −155 54 −62 −889 −1,903 −439 −1,116 — −689 −74 −502 265 −72 −2,042 −3,027 −1,130 −1,091 — −689 −74 −1,560 559
— −43 −9 −122
−1,002 −153 −37 −353
−1,451 −200 −57 −256
−2,902 −127 −48 —
−2,982 −60 −32 —
−4,429 −29 −22 —
−12,766 −569 −196 −609
−6,924 −576 −209 −609
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
S–10. Effect of Proposals on Receipts—Continued
(In millions of dollars) Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 Exceptions provided under subpart F for certain active financing income.................................................................. Suspension of net income limitation on percentage depletion from marginal oil and gas wells ........................ Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) 5 ....................... Authority to issue qualified zone academy bonds ............... Permanently extend expiring provisions: Provisions expiring in 2010: Marginal individual income tax rate reductions ............... Child tax credit 6 .................................................................. Marriage penalty relief 7 ..................................................... Education incentives ........................................................... Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes ............................. Modifications of IRAs and pension plans ......................... Other incentives for families and children ........................ Research & Experimentation (R&E) tax credit .................... Total budget proposals ..................................................................
1
−864 −25 −370 −4
−1,502 −44 −415 −13
−630 −18 — −25
— — — −35
— — — −37
— — — −37
−2,132 −62 −415 −147
−2,132 −62 −415 −332 −183,769 −31,697 −12,976 −2,810 −103,659 −6,490 −1,298 −51,051 −591,020
— — — −1 178 — — — −64,532
— — — −5 −550 — — — −73,017
— — — −10 −1,097 — — −906 −59,130
— — — −15 −1,485 — — −2,949 −27,927
— — — −20 −1,987 — — −4,654 −6,034
— — — −26 −2,178 — — −5,623 −9,433
— — — −76 −7,297 — — −14,132 −175,541
Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $27,000 million for 2002, $8,000 million for 2003, $1,500 million for 2004, $9,500 million for 2003-2007, and $9,500 million for 2003-2012. 2 Policy proposal with a receipt effect of zero. 3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $165 million for 2003, $449 million for 2004, $699 million for 2005, $975 million for 2006, $1,213 million for 2007, $3,501 million for 2003-2007, and $4,155 million for 2003-2012. 4 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $677 million for 2003, $5,185 million for 2004, $6,292 million for 2005, $6,560 million for 2006, $6,441 million for 2007, $25,145 million for 2003-2007, and $59,873 million for 2003-2012. 5 Net of income offsets. 6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $8,745 million for 2003-2012. 7 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $1,527 million for 2003-2012.
409
410
Table S–11. Receipts by Source - Summary
(In billions of dollars) Source 2001 Actual 994.3 151.1 694.0 (186.4) (507.5) 66.1 28.4 19.4 37.8 — 1,991.0 (1,483.5) (507.5) Estimates 2002 949.2 201.4 708.0 (190.8) (517.2) 66.9 27.5 18.7 36.4 –62.0 1,946.1 (1,428.9) (517.2) 2003 1,006.4 205.5 749.2 (203.9) (545.3) 69.0 23.0 19.8 40.2 –65.0 2,048.1 (1,502.7) (545.3) 2004 1,058.6 212.0 789.8 (216.3) (573.5) 71.2 26.6 21.9 42.8 –47.5 2,175.4 (1,601.9) (573.5) 2005 1,112.0 237.1 835.2 (227.0) (608.2) 73.6 23.4 23.0 43.2 –9.5 2,338.0 (1,729.8) (608.2) 2006 1,157.3 241.4 868.7 (235.1) (633.7) 75.3 26.4 24.7 44.4 17.0 2,455.3 (1,821.6) (633.7) 2007 1,221.7 250.6 908.3 (243.0) (665.3) 77.5 23.2 26.2 46.2 18.0 2,571.7 (1,906.4) (665.3)
Individual income taxes ........................................ Corporation income taxes .................................... Social insurance and retirement receipts ........... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Excise taxes ........................................................... Estate and gift taxes .............................................. Customs duties ...................................................... Miscellaneous receipts ......................................... Bipartisan economic security plan ...................... Total receipts ........................................................ On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget ..........................................................
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–12. Budget Authority Totals by Function
(In billions of dollars) Function National defense .................................................... International affairs ................................................ General science, space, and technology ........... Energy ..................................................................... Natural resources and environment .................... Agriculture............................................................... Commerce and housing credit ............................. On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Transportation ........................................................ Community and regional development ............... Education, training, employment, and social services ................................................................... Health ...................................................................... Medicare ................................................................. Income security ...................................................... Social Security ....................................................... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Veterans benefits and services............................ Administration of justice ........................................ General government ............................................. Net interest ............................................................. On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Allowances.............................................................. Undistributed offsetting receipts .......................... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Total ....................................................................... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... 2001 Actual 329.0 18.7 21.1 0.2 29.8 29.2 12.4 (8.4) (4.1) 67.6 13.9 63.7 182.1 217.2 273.4 440.5 (11.7) (428.8) 48.4 45.0 16.6 206.2 (275.0) (-68.8) — –55.2 (-47.3) (-7.9) 1,959.7 (1,603.6) (356.2) Estimates 2002 350.7 22.3 22.2 0.6 30.9 29.0 10.7 (7.8) (2.8) 66.1 18.5 79.6 201.0 230.3 306.2 461.3 (13.9) (447.4) 51.8 37.3 17.7 178.4 (255.2) (-76.8) 25.7 –55.2 (-45.9) (-9.2) 2,085.0 (1,720.9) (364.2) 2003 396.8 23.9 22.7 0.5 30.0 23.8 14.1 (8.9) (5.2) 63.7 14.7 80.9 234.3 234.5 319.3 476.9 (14.3) (462.6) 56.6 38.2 17.8 180.7 (264.5) (-83.8) 7.6 –74.1 (-64.6) (-9.6) 2,162.9 (1,788.5) (374.4) 2004 405.6 24.8 23.3 0.4 31.3 23.0 9.8 (9.4) (0.4) 58.4 15.4 81.8 259.0 244.1 326.6 497.6 (15.2) (482.5) 58.8 41.0 19.5 188.8 (280.9) (-92.0) 1.1 –100.2 (-89.9) (-10.2) 2,210.2 (1,829.6) (380.6) 2005 426.6 25.6 23.8 0.9 32.3 21.3 9.4 (8.9) (0.5) 64.6 15.5 84.0 278.4 261.4 336.3 521.8 (16.1) (505.8) 60.9 38.9 18.7 190.2 (291.2) (-101.0) –0.4 –100.4 (-89.4) (-11.0) 2,309.7 (1,915.5) (394.2) 2006 447.7 26.3 24.4 0.7 31.7 20.4 8.5 (8.1) (0.4) 65.9 15.9 85.9 298.0 282.0 347.5 548.5 (16.9) (531.6) 63.1 39.8 19.2 188.3 (299.3) (-111.0) –0.4 –98.6 (-86.8) (-11.7) 2,414.7 (2,005.4) (409.3) 2007 469.8 27.2 25.0 0.7 32.3 20.3 10.7 (9.5) (1.2) 67.2 16.2 87.9 319.9 305.5 356.7 577.8 (18.0) (559.8) 65.2 40.7 19.4 185.3 (307.4) (-122.1) –0.4 –98.4 (-86.0) (-12.4) 2,529.0 (2,102.6) (426.4)
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Table S–13. Outlay Totals by Function
(In billions of dollars) Function National defense .................................................... International affairs ................................................ General science, space, and technology ........... Energy ..................................................................... Natural resources and environment .................... Agriculture............................................................... Commerce and housing credit ............................. On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Transportation ........................................................ Community and regional development ............... Education, training, employment, and social services ................................................................... Health ...................................................................... Medicare ................................................................. Income security ...................................................... Social Security ....................................................... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Veterans benefits and services............................ Administration of justice ........................................ General government ............................................. Net interest ............................................................. On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Allowances.............................................................. Undistributed offsetting receipts .......................... On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... Total ........................................................................ On-budget .......................................................... Off-budget .......................................................... 2001 Actual 308.5 16.6 19.9 0.1 26.3 26.6 6.0 (3.7) (2.3) 55.2 12.0 57.3 172.6 217.5 269.8 433.1 (11.7) (421.4) 45.8 30.4 15.2 206.2 (275.0) (-68.8) — –55.2 (-47.3) (-7.9) 1,863.9 (1,516.9) (347.0) Estimates 2002 348.0 23.5 21.8 0.6 30.2 28.8 3.8 (1.7) (2.0) 62.1 15.4 71.7 195.2 226.4 310.7 459.7 (13.9) (445.7) 51.5 34.4 18.3 178.4 (255.2) (-76.8) 27.0 –55.2 (-45.9) (-9.2) 2,052.3 (1,690.6) (361.7) 2003 379.0 22.5 22.2 0.6 30.6 24.2 3.7 (5.1) (-1.4) 59.4 17.4 79.0 231.9 234.4 319.7 475.9 (14.3) (461.6) 56.6 40.6 17.6 180.7 (264.5) (-83.8) 6.4 –74.1 (-64.6) (-9.6) 2,128.2 (1,761.5) (366.8) 2004 393.8 22.8 22.8 0.3 31.1 22.8 5.1 (4.4) (0.7) 56.3 18.0 81.0 258.8 244.3 325.0 495.7 (15.2) (480.5) 58.6 43.5 19.6 188.8 (280.9) (-92.0) 0.8 –100.2 (-89.9) (-10.2) 2,189.1 (1,810.1) (379.0) 2005 413.5 23.3 23.5 0.8 31.7 21.3 3.1 (3.3) (-0.2) 56.0 17.4 82.7 277.8 261.3 334.3 519.7 (16.1) (503.6) 63.2 39.5 18.6 190.2 (291.2) (-101.0) –0.5 –100.4 (-89.4) (-11.0) 2,276.9 (1,885.5) (391.4) 2006 428.5 23.9 24.0 0.7 32.4 20.4 1.2 (2.1) (-0.9) 56.9 15.6 84.2 297.0 281.8 345.2 546.2 (16.9) (529.3) 62.9 39.7 19.0 188.3 (299.3) (-111.0) –0.3 –98.6 (-86.8) (-11.7) 2,369.1 (1,963.4) (405.7) 2007 442.5 24.6 24.6 0.7 32.8 20.3 1.7 (2.5) (-0.8) 58.6 15.4 86.1 318.3 305.8 352.7 575.3 (18.0) (557.3) 62.3 40.4 19.2 185.3 (307.4) (-122.1) –0.4 –98.4 (-86.0) (-12.4) 2,467.7 (2,045.8) (421.9)
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–14. Comparison of Economic Assumptions
(Calendar years) Projections 2002 Real GDP (billions of 1996 dollars): CBO January ............................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ............. 2003 Budget .............................................. Real GDP (chain-weighted): 1 CBO January ............................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ............. 2003 Budget .............................................. Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 1 CBO January ............................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ............. 2003 Budget .............................................. Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 1 CBO January ............................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ............. 2003 Budget .............................................. Unemployment rate: 3 CBO January ............................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ............. 2003 Budget .............................................. Interest Rates: 3 91-day Treasury bills: CBO January ........................................ Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget.......................................... 10-year Treasury notes: 3 CBO January ........................................ Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget.......................................... 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average 2002–2012
9,398 9,410 9,382 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 6.1 6.1 5.9
9,782 10,146 10,471 10,804 11,145 11,493 11,850 12,216 12,590 12,972 9,742 10,069 10,401 10,738 11,075 11,425 11,791 12,168 12,557 12,959 9,739 10,101 10,462 10,802 11,136 11,482 11,838 12,204 12,583 12,973 4.1 3.4 3.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 5.9 5.7 5.5 3.7 3.4 3.7 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.4 4.9 5.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 5.2 4.9 5.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.4 5.2 4.8 4.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.3 5.4 5.1 5.1
2.2 2.1 2.2 5.0 5.1 5.1
4.5 3.4 3.5 5.5 5.6 5.1
4.9 4.5 4.0 5.8 5.7 5.1
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.7 5.1
4.9 4.8 4.3 5.8 5.7 5.2
4.9 4.8 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.2
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.2
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.2
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.3
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.3
4.9 4.7 4.3 5.8 5.8 5.3
4.6 4.3 4.0 5.7 5.7 5.2
Source: Congressional Budget Office; Aspen Publishers, Inc., Blue Chip Economic Indicators. 1 Year over year percent change. 2 January 2002 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2002 and 2003; Blue Chip October 2001 long run extension for 2004–2012. 3 Annual averages, percent.
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Table S–15. Baseline Category Totals
(In billions of dollars) 2002 Outlays: Discretionary: Defense ......................................................... Non-defense ................................................. Subtotal, discretionary ..................................... Emergency Response Fund ............................ Mandatory: Social Security .............................................. Medicare ........................................................ Medicaid ........................................................ Other mandatory .......................................... Subtotal, mandatory ......................................... Net interest ........................................................ Total Outlays ........................................................... Receipts .................................................................. Unified Surplus....................................................... On-budget surplus ............................................ Off-budget surplus ............................................ * $500 million or less 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total 2003–2007
336 382 718 22 456 223 145 279 1,102 177 2,020 2,011 −9 −165 155
347 402 749 9 472 229 159 277 1,136 175 2,070 2,121 51 −127 179
359 413 772 5 491 237 171 272 1,172 177 2,126 2,234 109 −86 195
371 420 791 2 515 252 185 278 1,231 172 2,197 2,366 169 −48 217
377 429 806 1 542 260 202 290 1,294 165 2,266 2,461 196 −33 228
383 439 822 * 571 279 219 294 1,363 156 2,341 2,581 240 −4 244
1,836 2,103 3,939 17 2,591 1,258 936 1,412 6,197 846 11,000 11,764 764 −298 1,063
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–16. Budget Surplus Reestimates
(In billions of dollars) 2002 April pre-policy baseline ....................................................... Economic downturn .......................................................... Enacted policy: Tax relief ........................................................................ Other enacted legislation ............................................ Current baseline .................................................................... Budget proposals .............................................................. Budget outlook, pre-economic security plan ..................... Bipartisan economic security plan.................................. Budget outlook, including economic security plan ............ 283 −197 −40 −54 −9 −7 −16 −90 −106 2003 334 −138 −94 −51 51 −54 −3 −77 −80 Total 2002–2011 5,637 −1,345 −1,478 −591 2,222 −1,325 896 −231 665
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Table S–17. Federal Government Financing and Debt
(In billions of dollars) Actual 2001 Financing: Unified budget surplus (+)/ deficit (−) ................................................ Financing other than the change in debt held by the public: Premiums paid (−) on buybacks of Treasury securities 1 .......... Net purchases (−) of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust ..................................... Changes in: 2 Treasury operating cash balance ............................................. Checks outstanding, deposit funds, etc. 3 .............................. Seigniorage on coins ...................................................................... Less: Net financing disbursements: Direct loan financing accounts ................................................. Guaranteed loan financing accounts ....................................... Total, financing other than the change in debt held by the public ............................................................................ Total, amount available to repay debt held by the public .............................................................................. Change in debt held by the public ..................................................... Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: Debt issued by Treasury ..................................................................... Adjustment for Treasury debt not subject to limitation and agency debt subject to limitation 4 .............................................................. Adjustment for discount and premium 5............................................ Total, debt subject to statutory limitation 6 ................................... Estimate 2002 −106 −3 −15 −16 −1 1 −15 −2 −51 −157 157 6,110 −15 5 6,099 2003 −80 — −1 — −* 1 −15 3 −13 −93 93 6,499 −15 5 6,489 2004 −14 — −* −5 — 1 −15 3 −16 −29 29 6,867 −15 5 6,856 2005 2006 2007
127 −11 — 8 −13 1 −19 −4 −37 90 −90 5,743 −15 5 5,733
61 — * — — 1 −15 4 −9 52 −52 7,182 −15 5 7,172
86 — * — — 1 −15 5 −9 78 −78 7,482 −15 5 7,472
104 — * −5 — 1 −15 5 −13 91 −91 7,780 −15 5 7,770
SUMMARY TABLES
THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2003
Table S–17. Federal Government Financing and Debt—Continued
(In billions of dollars) Actual 2001 Debt Outstanding, End of Year: Gross Federal debt 7: Debt issued by Treasury ................................................................ Debt issued by other agencies ...................................................... Total, gross Federal debt ........................................................... Held by: Debt securities held by Government accounts ........................... Debt securities held by the public 8 .............................................. Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
5,743 27 5,770 2,450 3,320
6,110 27 6,137 2,660 3,477
6,499 26 6,526 2,956 3,570
6,867 26 6,892 3,293 3,600
7,182 25 7,207 3,659 3,548
7,482 24 7,506 4,036 3,470
7,780 23 7,803 4,424 3,379
* $500 million or less 1 Includes only premiums paid on buybacks through December 2001. Estimates are not made for subsequent buybacks. 2 A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would be a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which are liabilities) would also be a means of financing a deficit and therefore would also have a positive sign. 3 Besides checks outstanding and deposit funds, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous liability accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets other than the Treasury operating cash balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold. 4 Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank debt. 5 Consists of unamortized discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series securities. 6 The statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion. 7 Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the government account series are measured at face value less unrealized discount (if any). 8 At the end of 2001, the Federal Reserve Banks held $534.1 billion of federal securities and the rest of the public held $2,785.9 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.
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