November 8 2010 Manitoba Economic Highlights Economic Overview Manitoba real GDP economic performance Real Gross Domestic Product exceeded Canadian performance for 4 consecutive years from 2006 to 2009. o Statistics Canada estimated that Manitoba real GDP was unchanged in 2009 the best Statistics Canada estimates that Manitoba performance among the provinces and the was the only province to have an increase in only province to not have a decline in the the value of real GDP in 2009. value of real GDP. Canada is estimated to Manitoba’s population increased by 15,850 have declined by 2.5% in the year ending July 1, 2010, the best o In 2010, the Survey of Major Economic performance since at least 1972. Forecasters projects that the Manitoba In 2010, Manitoba has the second lowest economy will grow 2.6% below Canada’s unemployment and youth unemployment 3.2% growth and 2.7% in 2011 above the rate. 2.5% national growth rate. In 2009, there were only 65 business o The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics will bankruptcies in Manitoba, the lowest level release revised estimate for Manitoba 2009 since 1977. GDP in late November. Real GDP (% Change) o Food (5.3%) had the largest increase while energy declined 11.4% in 2009 4 Labour Market f = Survey of forecasters-November 1, 2010 3 Employment 2 o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba’s 1 employment increased by 11,700 or 1.9% 0 above the national increase of 1.6%. -1 o In 2009 Manitoba’s employment increased Manitoba -2 Canada by 200 compared to a national decrease of -3 276,900. Manitoba was one of only three provinces to post an increase in employment 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f last year. .Employment (% Change) 2009 2010ytd Consumer Price Index Manitoba o In the first nine months, the Manitoba CPI Total Employment 0.0 1.9 increased 0.7% compared to the 1.6% Canadian increase. The clothing, shelter and Full-Time 0.1 1.0 food components of the Manitoba CPI are Part-Time (0.1) 5.9 all lower on a year-to-date basis. Canada o In 2009, the Manitoba CPI increased 0.6% Total Employment (1.6) 1.6 compared to the 0.3% national increase. Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. November 8 2010 Unemployment Rate Economic Activity o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba’s Manufacturing Sales unemployment rate was 5.4%, second lowest behind Saskatchewan. The youth o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba unemployment rate was 11.0%, also second manufacturing sales declined 6.2% compared lowest in Canada. to a 9.8% national increase. o Historically, Manitoba’s unemployment rate o In the first eight months of 2010, three has averaged 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points Manitoba industries increased. Other non- below Canada. In 2009, this spread increased durables, non-metallic minerals and primary to 3.1 points. metals lead the growth industries while 12 industries have declined. o From 1998 to 2009, Manitoba had the lowest annual unemployment rate among o In 2009, Manitoba manufacturing sales provinces five times, and the second-lowest decreased 10.7% to $14.6 billion. Canadian rate five times. sales declined 17.7%. Manitoba’s performance bettered the national average Average Weekly Earnings for the ninth consecutive year. o In the first eight months of 2010, average o In 2009, three Manitoba industries increased weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 1.7% sales led by electrical appliances (14.4%) and below Canada’s increase of 3.2%. machinery (0.6%) while twelve industries o In 2009, average weekly earnings in declined with primary metals, wood, printing Manitoba were up 2.8%, above Canada’s and paper industries leading the losses. increase of 1.6% and fourth highest among provinces. Industries with Strongest Growth in Population the Value of Manufacturing Sales (% Change) o As of July 1, 2010, Manitoba’s population 2009 2010ytd stood at 1,235,412, a one-year increase of Oth. non-durables (7.5) 18.3 15,850 persons. This 1.3% increase was Non-metallic min. (13.9) 15.4 fourth best among provinces. Primary metals (29.7) 10.5 o The official population for a year is based Farm Cash Receipts on July 1st which for Manitoba in 2010 was 1,235,412, an increase of 1.3% o NOTE: Statistics Canada will not be releasing second quarter data until o The most significant factor driving November. Manitoba’s population growth is the Provincial Nominee Program. Since it o In the first quarter of 2010, Manitoba cash began immigrants entering Manitoba under receipts declined 4.4% to $1.4 billion. PNP has steadily increased. o Crop receipts decreased 6.9% due to declines in specialty and forage, vegetables Net Migration and oilseeds. Wheat receipts rose 9.1%. o In the year ending July 1, 2010, 10,303 Livestock receipts were down 8.8% on more people moved to Manitoba than left. weakness in cattle and hog receipts. Direct o During the same period, net international in- payments increased 55.5%. migration totaled 12,483, more than the net o Manitoba cash receipts decreased 0.5% in inter-provincial out-migration of 2,182. 2009 to $4.8 billion. Manitoba’s decline of Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. November 8 2010 0.5% was the third best performance among o The Survey shows that Manitoba’s private provinces. investment decreased 8.7% less than half the national decline of 17.6%. In 2009, private o Crop receipts were up 1.1% with weakness capital investment accounted for in grains and specialty and forage receipts approximately 63% of capital investment in offset by gains in oilseeds and vegetables. Manitoba. Livestock receipts declined 4.8% with weakness in cattle offsetting gains in hog o Manitoba’s public investment increased receipts. Direct payments are estimated to 36.1%, second highest among the provinces have risen 7.2%. and significantly above the 13.4% increase in Farm Cash Receipts Canada. (% Change) o A number of major investment projects were 2009 2010ytd underway in 2009, including the Winnipeg Canola 5.3 (15.3) Floodway expansion, the Wuskwatim hydro- Wheat (4.9) 9.1 electric dam, the Keystone Pipeline and a Hogs 1.7 (4.3) new airport facility. Cattle (18.1) (23.0) o In 2010, capital investment is projected to o Agricultural diversification has altered the decrease 1.1% below the Canadian increase structure of the sector. In 1990, wheat of 4.4%. Manitoba’s private investment is accounted for 29% of farm cash receipts but projected to decrease 7.8% and public by 2009 only 16.9%. In 2009, the largest investment to increase 10.3%. receipts source was canola (24.7%) followed by wheat, hogs (15.0%) and cattle (8.9%). Housing Starts o In the three quarters of 2010, Manitoba Retail Sales starts increased 45.4%, above the national o In the first eight months 2010, Manitoba increase of 39.5%. Single starts rose 39.9% retail sales increased 6.4%, above the while multiples increased 59.3% to 1,429. Canadian increase of 5.4%. Manitoba sales o In 2009, Manitoba housing starts declined to rose on the strength of motor vehicles 4,174 units, a 24.6% decrease and better than (15.2%), personal care (11.0%), gasoline the 29.4% national decline. Single starts are (10.5%) and home furnishings (10.1%). down 17.6% while multiples declined 38.7%. o In 2009, Manitoba retail sales declined 0.4% o The 4,174 housing starts in Manitoba in better than the 2.9% decline in Canada. The 2009 is the lowest level since 2003 but is still decline in 2009 retail sales was led by better than any other year since 1988. gasoline (-11.3%) and motor vehicle (-5.2%) sales. Recreation and music (11.4%), health o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba and personal care (8.0%) and general stores urban housing starts increased 38.1% while (5.4%) have the largest increases. Canadian starts were up 32.6%. Manitoba single starts rose 29.7% while multiples Investment increased 52.6% to 1,334. o Statistics Canada’s Private and Public Housing Starts (All Investment Survey from February 2010 Areas) shows that Manitoba’s 2009 capital (% Change) investment increased 4.0%, second highest Manitoba Canada among provinces. Manitoba was one of only 2007 14.1 0.4 four provinces to have an increase in 2008 (3.5) (7.6) investment in 2009. Investment in Canada 2009 (24.6) (29.4) declined 11.4%. 2010ytd 45.4 39.5 Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year. November 8 2010 Building Permits Foreign Merchandise Exports (% Change) o In the first nine months of 2010, the value of Manitoba building permits increased 2009 2010ytd 13.8%. Permits in Canada were up 27.7%. All Countries (18.2) (10.9) o The value of Manitoba residential permits U.S. (19.6) (11.5) increased by 30.6% while non-residential Non-U.S. (15.2) (9.6) permits declined 10.8%. The non-residential decline is led by institutional and Hydro-Electricity Sales government construction. o In the first nine months of 2010, the value o The value of permits in Winnipeg rose of hydro sales increased 0.8% with a 1.4% 26.1% while outside of Winnipeg they decline in domestic sales being offset by a decreased 1.6%. 7.2% increase in export sales. o In 2009, the value of building permits in o In 2009, the value of Manitoba electricity Manitoba decreased 4.6%. Non-residential sales declined. Domestic sales increased permits were up 16.1% while residential while exports were down. permits decreased 14.7%. Canada permits o Approximately 80% of export sales are to were down 13.3%. the United States with the balance to other Bankruptcies Canadian provinces. Export sales to the U.S. are priced in $US; consequentially the o In the first eight months of 2010, business decline was substantially influenced by the bankruptcies were down 2.2% to 45 in rising Canadian dollar. Manitoba and declined 25.3% in Canada. o In the first eight months of 2010, consumer bankruptcies decreased 20.4% Manitoba and Manitoba Finance 21.0% Canada. Economic and Fiscal Analysis Branch, Taxation, o In 2009, business bankruptcies decreased Economic and Intergovernmental Fiscal 36.9% to 65 in Manitoba, and declined Research Division 12.1% in Canada. The 65 Manitoba (204) 945-3757 bankruptcies were the fewest since 1977. Director: Jim Hrichishen o Consumer bankruptcies increased 20.6% in Jim.Hrichishen@gov.mb.ca Manitoba below the 28.4% increase in Manager: Narendra Budhia Canada. Narendra.Budhia@gov.mb.ca Foreign Merchandise Exports Analyst: Jim Gibbs Jim.Gibbs@gov.mb.ca o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba Analyst: Stephen Verhaeghe exports decreased 10.9%, while Canadian Stephen.Verhaeghe@gov.mb.ca exports were up 11.0%. o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba’s Please click on economic statistics to view the U.S. exports decreased 11.5% while non- data underlying this report. U.S. exports were down 9.6%. Note: The 2010 Economic Review and Outlook o In 2009, Manitoba exports decreased 18.2%, is available at: while Canadian exports were down 26.5%. Manitoba’s U.S. exports decreased 19.6% www.gov.mb.ca/finance/budget10/papers/econo while non-U.S. exports were down 15.2%. my.pdf Note: Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year.