Manitobas Recent Economic Performance by ual61139


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									                                                                                November 8 2010

         Manitoba Economic Highlights
Economic Overview                                                  Manitoba real GDP economic performance
     Real Gross Domestic Product                                    exceeded Canadian performance for 4
                                                                    consecutive years from 2006 to 2009.
     o Statistics Canada estimated that Manitoba
       real GDP was unchanged in 2009 the best                     Statistics Canada estimates that Manitoba
       performance among the provinces and the                      was the only province to have an increase in
       only province to not have a decline in the                   the value of real GDP in 2009.
       value of real GDP. Canada is estimated to                   Manitoba’s population increased by 15,850
       have declined by 2.5%                                        in the year ending July 1, 2010, the best
     o In 2010, the Survey of Major Economic                        performance since at least 1972.
       Forecasters projects that the Manitoba                      In 2010, Manitoba has the second lowest
       economy will grow 2.6% below Canada’s                        unemployment and youth unemployment
       3.2% growth and 2.7% in 2011 above the                       rate.
       2.5% national growth rate.
                                                                   In 2009, there were only 65 business
     o The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics will                       bankruptcies in Manitoba, the lowest level
       release revised estimate for Manitoba 2009                   since 1977.
       GDP in late November.
Real GDP (% Change)                                               o Food (5.3%) had the largest increase while
                                                                    energy declined 11.4% in 2009
 4                                                          Labour Market
               f = Survey of forecasters-November 1, 2010
                                                                  o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba’s
 1                                                                  employment increased by 11,700 or 1.9%
 0                                                                  above the national increase of 1.6%.
-1                                                                o In 2009 Manitoba’s employment increased
-2                                             Canada                by 200 compared to a national decrease of
-3                                                                   276,900. Manitoba was one of only three
                                                                     provinces to post an increase in employment
        2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f                                   last year.
                                                                   .Employment (% Change)
                                                                                           2009     2010ytd
     Consumer Price Index
     o In the first nine months, the Manitoba CPI                    Total Employment       0.0        1.9
       increased 0.7% compared to the 1.6%
       Canadian increase. The clothing, shelter and                    Full-Time            0.1        1.0
       food components of the Manitoba CPI are                         Part-Time           (0.1)       5.9
       all lower on a year-to-date basis.                           Canada
     o In 2009, the Manitoba CPI increased 0.6%                      Total Employment      (1.6)       1.6
       compared to the 0.3% national increase.

Note:     Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year.
                                                                             November 8 2010

Unemployment Rate                                          Economic Activity
  o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba’s
                                                               Manufacturing Sales
    unemployment rate was 5.4%, second lowest
    behind Saskatchewan. The youth                            o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba
    unemployment rate was 11.0%, also second                    manufacturing sales declined 6.2% compared
    lowest in Canada.                                           to a 9.8% national increase.
  o Historically, Manitoba’s unemployment rate                o In the first eight months of 2010, three
    has averaged 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points                   Manitoba industries increased. Other non-
    below Canada. In 2009, this spread increased                durables, non-metallic minerals and primary
    to 3.1 points.                                              metals lead the growth industries while 12
                                                                industries have declined.
  o From 1998 to 2009, Manitoba had the
    lowest annual unemployment rate among                     o In 2009, Manitoba manufacturing sales
    provinces five times, and the second-lowest                 decreased 10.7% to $14.6 billion. Canadian
    rate five times.                                            sales declined 17.7%. Manitoba’s
                                                                performance bettered the national average
   Average Weekly Earnings                                      for the ninth consecutive year.
  o In the first eight months of 2010, average                o In 2009, three Manitoba industries increased
    weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 1.7%                    sales led by electrical appliances (14.4%) and
    below Canada’s increase of 3.2%.                            machinery (0.6%) while twelve industries
  o In 2009, average weekly earnings in                         declined with primary metals, wood, printing
    Manitoba were up 2.8%, above Canada’s                       and paper industries leading the losses.
    increase of 1.6% and fourth highest among
                                                                Industries with Strongest Growth in
   Population                                                   the Value of Manufacturing Sales (%
  o     As of July 1, 2010, Manitoba’s population
                                                                                               2009   2010ytd
        stood at 1,235,412, a one-year increase of
                                                                Oth. non-durables             (7.5)      18.3
        15,850 persons. This 1.3% increase was                  Non-metallic min.            (13.9)      15.4
        fourth best among provinces.                            Primary metals               (29.7)      10.5
  o The official population for a year is based                Farm Cash Receipts
    on July 1st which for Manitoba in 2010 was
    1,235,412, an increase of 1.3%                            o NOTE: Statistics Canada will not be
                                                                releasing second quarter data until
  o The most significant factor driving                         November.
    Manitoba’s population growth is the
    Provincial Nominee Program. Since it                      o In the first quarter of 2010, Manitoba cash
    began immigrants entering Manitoba under                    receipts declined 4.4% to $1.4 billion.
    PNP has steadily increased.                               o Crop receipts decreased 6.9% due to
                                                                declines in specialty and forage, vegetables
   Net Migration
                                                                and oilseeds. Wheat receipts rose 9.1%.
  o In the year ending July 1, 2010, 10,303                     Livestock receipts were down 8.8% on
    more people moved to Manitoba than left.                    weakness in cattle and hog receipts. Direct
  o During the same period, net international in-               payments increased 55.5%.
    migration totaled 12,483, more than the net               o Manitoba cash receipts decreased 0.5% in
    inter-provincial out-migration of 2,182.                    2009 to $4.8 billion. Manitoba’s decline of

Note:    Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year.
                                                                              November 8 2010

        0.5% was the third best performance among              o The Survey shows that Manitoba’s private
        provinces.                                               investment decreased 8.7% less than half the
                                                                 national decline of 17.6%. In 2009, private
  o Crop receipts were up 1.1% with weakness
                                                                 capital investment accounted for
     in grains and specialty and forage receipts
                                                                 approximately 63% of capital investment in
     offset by gains in oilseeds and vegetables.
     Livestock receipts declined 4.8% with
     weakness in cattle offsetting gains in hog                o Manitoba’s public investment increased
     receipts. Direct payments are estimated to                  36.1%, second highest among the provinces
     have risen 7.2%.                                            and significantly above the 13.4% increase in
   Farm Cash Receipts                                            Canada.
    (% Change)
                                                               o A number of major investment projects were
                              2009       2010ytd
                                                                 underway in 2009, including the Winnipeg
        Canola                 5.3        (15.3)
                                                                 Floodway expansion, the Wuskwatim hydro-
        Wheat                 (4.9)         9.1                  electric dam, the Keystone Pipeline and a
        Hogs                   1.7         (4.3)                 new airport facility.
        Cattle               (18.1)       (23.0)
                                                               o In 2010, capital investment is projected to
  o Agricultural diversification has altered the                 decrease 1.1% below the Canadian increase
    structure of the sector. In 1990, wheat                      of 4.4%. Manitoba’s private investment is
    accounted for 29% of farm cash receipts but                  projected to decrease 7.8% and public
    by 2009 only 16.9%. In 2009, the largest                     investment to increase 10.3%.
    receipts source was canola (24.7%) followed
    by wheat, hogs (15.0%) and cattle (8.9%).                   Housing Starts
                                                               o In the three quarters of 2010, Manitoba
   Retail Sales
                                                                 starts increased 45.4%, above the national
  o In the first eight months 2010, Manitoba                     increase of 39.5%. Single starts rose 39.9%
    retail sales increased 6.4%, above the                       while multiples increased 59.3% to 1,429.
    Canadian increase of 5.4%. Manitoba sales
                                                               o In 2009, Manitoba housing starts declined to
    rose on the strength of motor vehicles
                                                                 4,174 units, a 24.6% decrease and better than
    (15.2%), personal care (11.0%), gasoline
                                                                 the 29.4% national decline. Single starts are
    (10.5%) and home furnishings (10.1%).
                                                                 down 17.6% while multiples declined 38.7%.
  o In 2009, Manitoba retail sales declined 0.4%
                                                               o The 4,174 housing starts in Manitoba in
    better than the 2.9% decline in Canada. The
                                                                 2009 is the lowest level since 2003 but is still
    decline in 2009 retail sales was led by
                                                                 better than any other year since 1988.
    gasoline (-11.3%) and motor vehicle (-5.2%)
    sales. Recreation and music (11.4%), health                o In the first ten months of 2010, Manitoba
    and personal care (8.0%) and general stores                   urban housing starts increased 38.1% while
    (5.4%) have the largest increases.                            Canadian starts were up 32.6%. Manitoba
                                                                  single starts rose 29.7% while multiples
   Investment                                                     increased 52.6% to 1,334.
  o Statistics Canada’s Private and Public                      Housing Starts (All
    Investment Survey from February 2010                        Areas)
    shows that Manitoba’s 2009 capital                           (% Change)
    investment increased 4.0%, second highest                                         Manitoba     Canada
    among provinces. Manitoba was one of only                    2007                   14.1          0.4
    four provinces to have an increase in                        2008                   (3.5)        (7.6)
    investment in 2009. Investment in Canada                     2009                  (24.6)       (29.4)
    declined 11.4%.
                                                                 2010ytd                45.4         39.5

Note:     Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year.
                                                                               November 8 2010

Building Permits                                                 Foreign Merchandise Exports
                                                                 (% Change)
  o In the first nine months of 2010, the value
    of Manitoba building permits increased                                                 2009     2010ytd
    13.8%. Permits in Canada were up 27.7%.                      All Countries            (18.2)      (10.9)
  o The value of Manitoba residential permits                     U.S.                    (19.6)      (11.5)
    increased by 30.6% while non-residential                      Non-U.S.                (15.2)       (9.6)
    permits declined 10.8%. The non-residential
    decline is led by institutional and                        Hydro-Electricity Sales
    government construction.                                  o In the first nine months of 2010, the value
  o The value of permits in Winnipeg rose                       of hydro sales increased 0.8% with a 1.4%
    26.1% while outside of Winnipeg they                        decline in domestic sales being offset by a
    decreased 1.6%.                                             7.2% increase in export sales.
  o In 2009, the value of building permits in                 o In 2009, the value of Manitoba electricity
    Manitoba decreased 4.6%. Non-residential                    sales declined. Domestic sales increased
    permits were up 16.1% while residential                     while exports were down.
    permits decreased 14.7%. Canada permits                   o Approximately 80% of export sales are to
    were down 13.3%.                                            the United States with the balance to other
Bankruptcies                                                    Canadian provinces. Export sales to the U.S.
                                                                are priced in $US; consequentially the
  o In the first eight months of 2010, business                 decline was substantially influenced by the
    bankruptcies were down 2.2% to 45 in                        rising Canadian dollar.
    Manitoba and declined 25.3% in Canada.
  o      In the first eight months of 2010, consumer
        bankruptcies decreased 20.4% Manitoba and                                  Manitoba Finance
        21.0% Canada.                                            Economic and Fiscal Analysis Branch, Taxation,
  o      In 2009, business bankruptcies decreased                   Economic and Intergovernmental Fiscal
        36.9% to 65 in Manitoba, and declined                                 Research Division
        12.1% in Canada. The 65 Manitoba                                       (204) 945-3757
        bankruptcies were the fewest since 1977.                                  Director: Jim Hrichishen
  o Consumer bankruptcies increased 20.6% in                          
    Manitoba below the 28.4% increase in                                        Manager: Narendra Budhia

Foreign Merchandise Exports                                                         Analyst: Jim Gibbs
  o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba
                                                                                Analyst: Stephen Verhaeghe
    exports decreased 10.9%, while Canadian
    exports were up 11.0%.
  o In the first eight months of 2010, Manitoba’s                  Please click on economic statistics to view the
    U.S. exports decreased 11.5% while non-                                    data underlying this report.
    U.S. exports were down 9.6%.
                                                                 Note: The 2010 Economic Review and Outlook
  o In 2009, Manitoba exports decreased 18.2%,                                  is available at:
    while Canadian exports were down 26.5%.
    Manitoba’s U.S. exports decreased 19.6%            
    while non-U.S. exports were down 15.2%.                                        my.pdf

Note:    Changes are calculated relative to the corresponding period in the previous year.

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