Data Research Reno Nevada

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					BEA’s Regional Economic
Past Improvements and
What Lies Ahead for the Regional

                                          Robert L. Brown
  Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for Assessing
                                Our State and Local Economies
                                                Reno, Nevada
                                                 February 2, 2007
  BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives
      Accelerated

      New

      Other

      Future
       improvements                             2

   Data release                        From         To           Timing
   Quarterly state personal income   4 months    3 months    Completed 2004
   Total GDP by state                18 months   6 months    Completed 2005
   GDP-by-state industry detail      18 months   10 months   Completed 2005
   County industry detail            16 months 12 months     Completed 2005
   Metro-area personal income        16 months 9 months      Completed 2006                                                               3
New Statistics: Local Area Compensation

      County estimates of compensation by
       industry, 1998 forward
          Sum of Wages and salaries and
           supplements to wages
               Labor costs of production
          First released in 2005
          December release provides early indicator
           of economic activity for counties                                            4
New Statistics: More Local Area Data

      Metro area disposable personal income
          Researching the estimation of personal
           current taxes for metro areas
               Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI
          Some results from the prototype
               Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current
                taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income
               McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes
                1,082—7.4 % of personal income                                                     5
New Statistics: More Data on Tables

      New tables—CA04 summary and CA06
      More Geography
          New Metropolitan area definitions—including
           micropolitan areas
      More detail on tables
          Since 1996 the amount of detail on tables has
               1996—0.9 million lines per year
               2006—2.0 million lines per year                                                6
  New Statistics: Longer Time Series

      Annual state earnings industry data
       now back to 1990 on a NAICS basis
          Previously only 2001 forward
      GDP by state now available for 1963
       forward on SIC basis
          Previously 1977 forward                                  7
      New Statistics: Interarea Prices

      Indexes that permit place to place comparisons
       correcting for price level differences
      Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata
      Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban
          Covers 87 percent of US population
      CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require
       additional data
      BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working
       Paper in 2005
      Article in September 2006 Monthly Labor Review                                               8
 Other Improvements: Improved Preliminary
          State Wage Methodology

   Scaling factors for CES jobs for estimating wages

               California          0.53
               Nevada              0.71
               Oregon              0.68
               Utah                0.82                                            9
     Other Improvements: Outreach

      Outreach to users of the statistics
          6 Regional data users conferences around
           the country in the past 15 months
          7 RIMS training workshops for regional
           data users in the past 15 months                                           10
              Regional Working Papers and
              Presentations in One Location
     Go To: BEA
     Regional
     Articles Tool
     Regional
      Papers and
      Presentations                                   11
              Future Improvements: More
               Accelerations of Releases
      Personal income for metropolitan areas
          8 months after end of calendar year
      GDP by state and sector
          6 months after end of calendar year                                      12
 Future Improvements: More Local Area
      Gross metro product (GMP)
          Initial estimates—top-down approach:
               Allocate state GDP by local area earnings
          Research into bottom-up approach for
           non-labor part of GMP
               Taxes and gross operating surplus
               Research using sub-state Census Bureau data                                                   13
 Future Improvements: Alternative Estimates
             of Regional Income

      Develop alternative household income
       measures that better meet user needs
          Measure spending capacity
          Track tax base
          Research to be released this Spring                                      14
        US Pension Accounting, 2000

     Personal income               8,429.7
     - Net reclassifications           3.0
     - Pension contributions         697.7
     - Pension Fund Property Income 367.7
     + Pension benefits              652.2
     Adjusted personal income      8,013.6                                  15
Future Improvements: Personal Income
      Interactive Web-based state and
       county personal income mapping
          Prototype this year                              16
 Future Improvements: GDP by State

      Carry GDP by state back to 1992 on a
       NAICS industry basis
          NAICS currently from 1997
          Requires back-casting Census Bureau data
           at Center for Economic Studies
      Develop alternative state GDP
       methodology to estimate gross output
       and intermediate expenses                                           17
Future Improvement: Regional Multipliers

      Produce value-added multipliers
          In addition to gross output multipliers
           currently produced
      Improve methods to “regionalize” the
       national input-output accounts
      Research into capturing interregional
       flows of goods and people                                          18
      Other Future Research: New Data
      The American Community Survey (ACS)
       and the Local Employment Dynamics
       (LED) datasets as substitutes for the
       decennial Census long-form
      IRS information returns data by state
      Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
       (MEPS) data for contributions to health
       insurance                                      19
And Finally: Comprehensive Revision

      Spring 2009—every 5 years
          Definitional revisions
          Statistical and methodological revisions
          Presentational revisions                                           20

      Contact:
               Robert L, Brown
               202.606.9246
                                          21

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