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									September 09




 The Convergent & Wi-Fi MPV (Mobile Personal Video) Business 2009-13
 An Opportunity for Vendors, Operators, Content Owners, Aggregators & New Entrants
Quick Terminological and Historical Notes




                                                                                                                                   Telenalytics
                                                                                                                              tion
                                                                                                    Viewership Time Distribution
The concept of personal video was first identified by the                                                                      05
                                                                                                     Helsinski DVB-H Trial -2005
CE industry in the early part of this decade, but things did




                                                                                                                                    elenalytic
                                                                                                                                     lenalytic
                                                                                                                                     lenalytic
                                                                                                                                      e alytic
                                                                                                                                         lyt c
not go far before Wi-Fi PMPs and also Wi-Fi handsets                                       100%
provided devices suitable for the purpose. Wi-Fi video




                                                                                                                                         lyti
hardly qualifies to be called “mobile” as the term “no-
madic” is definitely more appropriate. Finally, the content




                                                                                                                                           t
                                                               Users As A Percentage 0f Maximum
currently being consumed is not exactly TV since even                                             80%
today, prime TV programming is still testing the waters
of Internet-based distribution.
                                                                                                  60%
Taking the above into account, it appeared appropriate to
use the term Mobile Personal Video, which is related to
the French term “Télévision Mobile Personnelle” (TMP).

The term 3G-Only-MPV is used to denote MPV offerings                                              40%
that rely only on the capabilities of the 3G networks.
Macrocell, either 3G or Broadcast, MPV offerings when
they also enable Wi-Fi based MPV consumption are re-
                                                                                                  20%
ferred as Combos.

Historically, the first time consumers were witnessed en
masse to prefer TV viewing on handhelds rather than on
normal TV sets took place during the 2005 Helsinski
                                                                                                                                 00 8 00 21
                                                                                                    0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
DVB-H trial. As shown in the figure below, the peak of the
DVB-H viewing happened right in the middle of Finnish                                                            Hour of the Day
primetime (for traditional TV).



 The Convergent & Wi-Fi MPV (Mobile Personal Video) Business 2009-13
                                                                                                                              TELE     Analytics
Page 1                                                                                        September 2009


 SYNOPSIS
 Mobile Personal Video (MPV) can be delivered over GPRS, EDGE, 3G, Wi-Fi, Broadcast networks and down the road,
 over 3G LTE (or WIMAX today). Using GPRS or EDGE for MPV purposes basically translates to slow video download-
 ing and the practice is today mainly confined to Tier 2-3 countries. The widely deployed 3G networks simply lack
 the capacity for good quality MPV delivery. The 3G-Only-MPV Audiovisual (AV) data rate has to be kept in the 64 to
 128 Kbits/sec range (usually at 96 Kbits/sec), which is well below what is needed for a satisfactory user experience
 even on smaller monitors let alone the 3.5” iPhone screens. As a consequence, the 3G-Only-MPV adoption is slow
 and the average penetration in the mobile subscriber basis in major markets is in the 3-4% range. Combo products
 that capitalize on the Wi-Fi delivery capabilities do open new horizons for Macrocell-based MPV.
 Deploying a 3G LTE network in the US is likely to cost more than $100 a POP (spectrum & network) and after spend-
 ing $20B (US), no MNOs are likely to commit the bandwidth needed to make 3G LTE just a Wireless IPTV proposition.
 In Korea, KT is using its WIMAX network solely in a VOD role. Doing otherwise in a country with 15.10M MPV
 (Broadcast) users who consume an average of more than 40 MPV minutes per day would require carpet bombing
 the Seoul Capital Area with WIMAX base stations as dense as 100-150 meters apart. As analyzed in more detail in
 the report, of the “do-it-alone” options on the MPV table, Broadcast and Wi-Fi provide the quality of user experience
 that is necessary for mass MPV adoption (page 3) but many Broadcast networks fail to deliver due to extremely poor
 network coverage. On the other hand, MPV-Broadcast has been adopted by 36% of the 12+ Korean market segment
 and 39.4% of the corresponding market segment in Japan (end of Q1-09). Also, the BBC iPlayer (available to UK IPs)
 has already been accused of “destroying” the UK Internet, but BBC argues that the iPlayer is responsible for “only” 8-
 10% of the UK’s peak Internet traffic.
 The fact that 3G-Only-MPV cannot do the job and create mass MPV markets was well understood in the early parts
 of this decade but it then appeared that MPV-Broadcast could be easily made into an MNO game, while even two
 years ago Wi-Fi was still a No-No for most of the major MNOs. Things have changed, though. Whenever MPV-
 Broadcast had managed to bootstrap itself to a half decent regulatory-business environment, MPV miracles hap-
 pened and the ensuing adoption rates witnessed were faster than the ones demonstrated in the case of microwave
 ovens (the consumer adoption benchmark). Even with the financial crisis, the Japanese mobile network will be free
 of non-MPV-Broadcast (One-Segment) handsets by late 2011 or early 2012 (more than 110M subs). On the other
 hand, MPV-Broadcast has repeatedly demonstrated that it is totally prone to regulatory entanglements (MPV-
 Broadcast is the worst of the Convergence fronts) and for any practical reason, European MPV-Broadcast will remain
 problematic for 2 more years. In the US, both Qualcomm and the Local TV stations face a pivotal 2010.
 Wi-Fi MPV and MPV-Broadcast are obviously not the same in terms of what they can or cannot do. Pages 6 and 10
 provide highlights of some of the angles of comparison discussed in the report. On the other hand, the consumer’s
 daily MPV dosage is quite negotiable in terms of where and when it can be taken and Combo (with Wi-Fi) products
 have already been introduced. As mentioned, MPV-Broadcast has been rendered toothless in many markets and in
 others it is 2-3 years down the road. In a similar way, Wi-Fi is much less dominant (or powerful) in many countries
 than in the US and markets exist (Korea) where even mentioning the idea of PAY Wi-Fi MPV is likely to start quarrels
 that can last quite a few years.
 The report takes a holistic and balanced approach to W-Fi MPV, away from 3G-Only-MPV preconceptions and MPV-
 Broadcast universality mirages. There is no obvious reason to start mixing up icebergs with ice cubes and preparing
 to celebrate the possibility of the US monthly 3G-Only-MPV viewing time reaching 300 minutes when the Korean SKT
 had already shown as early as 2006 that this metric (the most important of all) could easily go higher than 1,800
 minutes per month. On the other hand, in most of the deployed MPV-Broadcast networks, a consumer would be
 quite (or very) lucky to be able to receive MPV-Broadcast indoors and as discussed (page 5), the bulk of the potential
 MPV viewing time is indoors.
 As early as 2006, TeleAnalytics MPV-related publications had pointed out that Wi-Fi was going to be called upon by
 both 3G-Only-MPV and MPV-Broadcast and that Wi-Fi was also likely to make a play on its own as well. Some time
 was needed, though, before the MNOs would widely accept Wi-Fi as a handset feature but in November 2008, Or-
 ange became the first MNO to announce a combo Wi-Fi/3G MPV service.
 Over the last three years, TeleAnalytics has released a dozen MPV-related publications, while the number of coun-
 tries tracked has risen to 54. The TeleAnalytics MPV adoption-device-sales related database is still the only one that
 is commercially available. TeleAnalytics is also actively involved in the IPTV space and released the first ever re-
 ports on both VoWLANs and metro-WLANs in June 2002 and March 2004, respectively.
Page 2                                                                                    September 2009


                                                          How much MPV Can a Country Consume?
                                                          The flood of 3G-Only-MPV surveys, when properly
                                                          done, may go as far as measuring 3G-Only-MPV
                                                          consumption but that is about it. They mean little in
                                                          terms of where Wi-Fi MPV is rapidly heading and
                                                          they definitely mix ice cubes with icebergs. The
                                                          Daily Average Viewing Time (AVT) these surveys
                                                          measure today is at most in the range of 8-10 min-
                                                          utes per day (3G alone) and in a way, they are as
                                                          likely to create misconceptions about the size of the
                                                          Wi-Fi MPV business as the scores of 2005-06 EU
                                                          MPV-Broadcast trials. Those trials were “measuring”
                                                          AVTs in the 15-25 minutes range but these figures
                                                          were long ago proven to be underestimates of
                                                          what happens in MPV-Broadcast networks of ade-
                                                          quate quality.
                                                          After more than four years of commercial MPV-
The Wi-Fi Takeover of the Handhelds                       Broadcast, the (few) countries where things worked
                                                          out provide totally conclusive evidence of what the
In 2001, a Nomura Securities Wi-Fi-related confer-
                                                          minimum daily MPV dosage is. Wi-Fi MPV does not
ence was provocatively enough named “The Bar-
                                                          cater to some of the places-times that the consumer
barian at the Gates.” During the same era, German
                                                          wants to consume his daily MPV dosage but this is
University professors were arguing the point that
                                                          almost always the case for MPV-Broadcast as well.
the tens of billions of dollars that were paid for the
                                                          As far 3G-Only-MPV things go, they have never
German 3G licenses should have instead been
                                                          made it into spatial-temporal MPV consumption
used to carpet bomb Germany with Wi-Fi APs.
                                                          considerations. The low 3G-Only-MPV video quality
Somewhat similar arguments were picked up in
                                                          (and often bad connectivity) is sufficient to keep
later years in the context of metro WLANs, but the
                                                          adoption-consumption permanently anemic.
related 2004 TeleAnalytics report made the point
that things were unlikely to follow the path that         On the basis of the rich experiences gained from
some municipal visionaries thought it would. On           successful MPV markets and also first principles, the
the contrary, two years earlier (June 2002) the           report details the evolution of MPV demand in
TeleAnalytics VoWLANs report made the point that          terms of both users and consumption patterns. As
VoWLANs were indeed serious business, but that it         the picture at the bottom shows, there is plenty of
would take quite a few years before the MNOs              MPV life beyond the subsistence-MPV domain.
would conclude that it was unavoidable for Wi-Fi
to become a common handset feature.
In any event, the introduction of the iPhone in 2007
institutionalized Wi-Fi as a permanent feature of
Smartphones. More recently, the MNOs’ delayed
love affair with Wi-Fi (figure at the top page) re-
sulted in many at SPRINT stating that all phones in
future product lines would be Wi-Fi enabled. The
report analyzes in detail both qualitatively and
quantitatively this Wi-Fi “Charge” and equally im-
portantly illuminates the reasons for this love affair,
after which the mobile network will never be the
same again. The handset Wi-Fi games have just
gotten started and the evolution of these games
will heavily affect the MPV business, visualizing
what is going to happen next is obviously the way
to look at things. Talking solely about this or the
other App or MPV player is simply a way to miss
the forest for the trees.
Page 3                                                                                   September 2009


                                                        The MPV Image Size Matters as Well
                                                        Beyond making the point that the mass introduc-
                                                        tion of Wi-Fi MPV was just a matter of time, the
                                                        2006 MPV-related TeleAnalytics report also high-
                                                        lighted the fact that given the small video image
                                                        size that 3G-Only-MPV can afford (due to its low AV
                                                        data rate), it was not about to generate any mass
                                                        consumer enthusiasm. As discussed, the MNOs had
                                                        been facing Wi-Fi inroads for years in the non-
                                                        handset handheld market segment. Continuing on
                                                        the same path in order to guard against Wi-Fi in-
                                                        roads in handsets risked something much worse,
                                                        namely making the PMP a much more common
                                                        device to be carried along with the handset day-in
                                                        and day-out.
                                                        PMPs do not have to abide by the footprint restric-
                                                        tions that handsets have to go by and the Wi-Fi
The MPV Image Quality Matters                           MPV explosion would have happened anyway.
The report only briefly looks into the subject of how   The iPhone touch screen design accelerated things
the mean MPV acceptability is affected by content       by managing to squeeze a 3.5” screen into a hand-
(and other parameters), leaving the details for oth-    set (The Toshiba TG01 is at 4.1”). As discussed, exist-
er more specialized TeleAnalytics publications in       ing MPV experiences place this iPhone screen size
order to focus on the cardinal dependency of the        in the middle of the range where “miracles hap-
AV data rate. This part of the analysis illuminates     pen,” namely well above the threshold where the
the fact that Wi-Fi MPV is not just “a collection of    consumer is inclined to at least partially bypass the
Apps and Players” but that the Internet/Wi-Fi MPV       living room TV set in favor of the MPV experience.
route, wherever available, enjoys fundamental           The Wi-Fi MPV synthesis simply flies over 3G-Only-
user-experience advantages over both 3G-Only-           MPV constraints and wins hands down against the
MPV and MPV-Broadcast.                                  MPV-Broadcast indoors. Visualizing where things
One of the figures from this part of the analysis is    are headed obviously requires quantifying the im-
copied at the top and, as shown, only 30-40% of         portance of the screen size on MPV acceptability as
consumers find the quality of the 3G-Only-MPV           well as factoring in both developments in the de-
video acceptable (QVGA screens). MPV-Broadcast          vice space and the fact that Wi-Fi can support the
scores much better in terms of mean video accept-       AV data rates required.
ability, a fact well-witnessed in the mass MPV-
Broadcast markets of Korea and Japan. On the
other hand, due to spectrum constraints, MPV-
Broadcast very seldom allows things to be taken to
Korean T-DMB levels (386 Kbits/sec AV data rate).
As discussed, Wi-Fi based MPV starts at quality
levels far above what 3G-Only-MPV is capable of.
As a matter of fact, the Apple iPhone SDK lets the
operator adjust the AV data rate all the way up to
1.6 Mbits/sec, a data rate which based on Nokia
research is not as much overkill as it may have
initially appeared to be. In the space available
here, it is simply worth saying that no quality-
related complaints about Wi-Fi MPV have surfaced
and if they did somehow show up, they were due
to poor video at the source. For reasons discussed,
MPV-Broadcast and 3G-Only-MPV simply cannot
make such claims to a spotless user experience.
Page 4                                                                                  September 2009


                                                         The Challenges of Bootstrapping MPV-Broadcast
                                                         As pointed out back in 2006 and for reasons sum-
                                                         marized in the report, 3G-Only-MPV cannot enable
                                                         a mass MPV market but MPV-Broadcast can. The
                                                         end Q1-09 MPV-Broadcast penetration in the Ko-
                                                         rean and Japanese 12+ market segments (more
                                                         than 35% in the first case, almost 40% in the sec-
                                                         ond) puts to rest recurrent “fears” about the mass
                                                         market nature of the MPV demand. On the other
                                                         hand, MPV-Broadcast is now four years old and in
                                                         many countries, things cannot even get started.
                                                         The bottom figure shows that it was only in 2008
                                                         that MPV-Broadcast finally somewhat stopped be-
The Limits of 3G-Only-MPV                                ing a Korean and Japanese duopoly. It will still
                                                         take several years before potent MPV-Broadcast
As it was evident from the beginning, the funda-         products take root in some of the major developed
mental constraints of 3G-Only-MPV do not allow for       world markets and for reasons discussed, nothing
the creation of MPV mass markets. Unfortunately,         major is about to happen in the EU before mid-
3G-Only-MPV perceptions are still the ones allowed       2011. Therefore and as discussed in detail, the high-
to shape opinions about the realities and potential      ly asymmetrical MPV-Broadcast uptake has cre-
of Wi-Fi-based MPV (and its Combos), even though         ated a first-class opportunity for Wi-Fi MPV (and its
this MPV delivery method wherever available does         Combos with 3G or Broadcast). This potential is
not suffer from any of the 3G-Only-MPV ailments.         highly variable around the world but it definitely
Typical of these “perceptions” of what is happening      peaks in the US. Understandably, it is one thing to
(and what will happen next) is the treatment of          try to popularize Wi-Fi MPV in Japan, where non-
Japanese and Korean MPV markets like they are            MPV-Broadcast handsets are on their way to being
on the other side of the moon.                           totally eradicated from the mobile and quite an-
As briefly mentioned in the side column, MPV-            other to try to do the same in Germany. In the sec-
Broadcast proved to be a difficult business to boot-     ond case, if an MPV-Broadcast deployment does
strap in many countries. On the other hand, its          finally happen, it would first of all be proof that
video quality is after all much closer to that of low-   resurrections are still in fashion.
end Wi-Fi MPV and the experiences from when-             Finally, the question of synergy between 3G-Only-
ever MPV-Broadcast worked out are much more              MPV or MPV-Broadcast on the one hand and Wi-Fi
relevant to understanding the Wi-Fi MPV opportu-         MPV on the other is taken up in detail. Concluding
nity than 3G-Only-MPV paradigms. The report              upfront that this relationship is competitive is obvi-
brings in the huge number of insights gained from        ously wrong and in November 2008, Orange an-
the booming MPV markets of Korea and Japan,              nounced a combo Wi-Fi MPV and 3G-Only-MPV
instead of simply making side notes that “in Korea       product.
and Japan MPV consumption patterns and adop-
tion are higher.” The situation can be visualized by
the figure at the top and it has to be noted that the
Korean penetration into the mobile subscriber base
appears “low” only due to Korea’s common use of
non-handset MPV devices. Finally, the Korean and
Japanese MPV is worth 5-8 times the viewing time
that 3G-Only-MPV nets (depending on the pairs
compared) and it should be obvious that inde-
pendently of what part of the Wi-Fi MPV supply
chain a player occupies, the dimensioning of the
Wi-Fi MPV opportunity involves correctly estimat-
ing the evolution of the Wi-Fi MPV viewing time. As
rather easily predicted years ago, adoption and
length of viewing time are highly correlated.
Page 5                                  September 2009


         Servicing the Consumer’s MPV Windows
         Of the dozens of 2005-07 era MPV-Broadcast trials,
         the bulk irreversibly biased the results due to their
         inadequate indoor network coverage. In a way,
         the practices from back then are also related to the
         current MPV perceptions that do not seem to want
         to acknowledge that MPV quality and
         where/when this quality is available is of cardinal
         importance. There is no easy way of saying wheth-
         er the MPV-Broadcast trials, the feather-light Broad-
         cast networks that popped up in Europe or finally
         the 3G-Only-MPV concepts are more inappropriate
         as starting points for understanding the Wi-Fi MPV
         and Combo Wi-Fi MPV propositions
         The report first of all separates where and when the
         consumer wants to consume his daily MPV dosage
         from what a particular MPV delivery solution can
         offer. The analysis based on the concept introduced
         in 2007 of Time Use Statistics (the concept allows for
         the decoupling of the Demand and Supply sides of
         MPV) is quite detailed, but some principles are dia-
         grammatically shown in the three figures at the
         left. As discussed, the absolute widths of these win-
         dows (minutes per day) vary considerably from
         country to country (and this variability affects the
         Wi-Fi MPV proposition), while even wider variabil-
         ity exists when the urban-center size and prevailing
         weather are taken into account.
         3G-Only-MPV can be seen as a flashlight illuminat-
         ing all of the MPV windows, but missing the battery
         strength (video quality) to create mass MPV mar-
         kets (side figures). MPV-Broadcast, as most often
         deployed in Europe, fails to illuminate the Travel
         window, while the indoor illumination wherever
         present is achieved often by accident rather than
         by design. In other cases (Korea), though, the good
         illumination of the Travel window and the non-
         terrible illumination of the Indoor window triggered
         a massive and booming MPV-Broadcast market.
         Generally, Wi-Fi means little to outdoors MPV. Wi-Fi
         means even less in terms of helping illuminate the
         Travel window. On the other hand, Wi-Fi can easily
         be present in 80% of the consumer’s indoor MPV
         window (by far the largest) and Wi-Fi MPV can run
         circles around both 3G-Only-MPV and MPV-
         Broadcast in terms of content diversity and the
         quality of video delivered. Needless to say, the
         report’s evaluation of the Wi-Fi MPV and Combo
         Wi-Fi MPV opportunities vis-à-vis 3G-Only-MPV and
         MPV-Broadcast is to the point, complete (both tech-
         nologically and business wise) and abides by
         TeleAnalytics’ well-known distaste for hype.
Page 6                                                                                   September 2009


                                                         The Traditional Video Operators and MPV
                                                         Dropping the Line is a term increasingly used to
                                                         describe consumers that opt for Internet-based vid-
                                                         eo consumption instead of the traditional residential
                                                         TV offerings (Cable, DTH or IPTV). At this point in
                                                         time, the phenomenon is of rather marginal signifi-
                                                         cance mainly due to the Internet-based content’s
                                                         availability and organization. On the other hand,
                                                         all traditional TV players are already in soul
                                                         searching mode about what to do with the Wi-Fi (or
                                                         Internet) MPV (or PC) Threat-Opportunity and both
                                                         Microsoft and Hulu are entering the UK market this
                                                         Fall.
                                                         As discussed, major MNOs were the first to jump
                                                         into Wi-Fi MPV in the justifiable hope of increasing
Wi-Fi MPV Backends, Software & Programming
                                                         the appeal of their 3G-Only-MPV products. Orange
Depending on the scale of things, the Wi-Fi MPV’s        announced an offering of 60 prime Wi-Fi-delivered
increasing popularity may necessitate very signifi-      channels in November 2008 and T-Mobile started
cant amounts of content repurposing and vendors          streaming German soccer. For MPV-Broadcast pro-
were quick to step in with mostly iPhone tailored        viders and retailers, the Wi-Fi MPV dilemmas are
solutions. The improved iPhone 3.0 video support         quite a bit more complex. Not seeing the potent
calls for different video streams that are optimized     competition that Wi-Fi could potentially pose to
for the data rates achieved over different networks      Broadcast requires ignoring the fact that most of the
(from EDGE to Wi-Fi). However and as discussed,          total time in the consumer’s MPV window is in-
the fact that Smartphones do not follow some kind        doors. On the other hand, neither Broadcast nor 3G
of uniform screen aspect ratio and resolution con-       have reasons to pick indoor quarrels with Wi-Fi in
ventions (iPhone’s screen is 3:2) somewhat compli-       terms of network availability, content diversity or
cates the Wi-Fi MPV back-end logistics.                  video quality.
On the software front, at least the iPhone players       If the 3G-Only-MPV MNOs or the MPV-Broadcast
are now getting released at a rate of one per week       operators (with their 10-20 TV channels) are ac-
and it is estimated that the BBC iPlayer (available      tively looking into the Wi-Fi Threat or Opportunity
only from UK IPs) was responsible for as much as         (through Combo products), the ones already offer-
10% of the UK’s peak Internet traffic in H1-09. As       ing 100 plus residential channels have a more in-
discussed, the player-client side of the IP MPV busi-    teresting equation to solve. As discussed in detail,
ness (and not Wi-Fi specific) is rapidly witnessing      repurposing and redirecting content over the Inter-
the entry of the majors. Adobe is planning to re-        net may well provide a new appeal to the residen-
lease Flash for Smartphones before the end of the        tial TV offerings. The Echostar-owned Sling Media
year and Microsoft’s Silverlight medium-term plans       was one of the first players to enter the iPhone MPV
are as far-reaching as could be expected.                market in force, and as discussed, others are likely
This report concludes that much has to be done in        to follow.
the video search space since the proliferation of Wi-
Fi MPV videos has been followed by increasing
headaches over where to find what. As the BBC
case shows, although the Wi-Fi MPV user can up to
a point get used to spending serious amounts of his
time searching for videos, the popularity of the
MPV offering is tightly correlated with its capability
to quickly start streaming the missed BBC news.
Content aggregators (PAY or not) for sure have a
bright future in the Wi-Fi MPV universe that takes
shape since just a few media outlets can claim to
have the appeal that BBC has in the UK, or the
appeal that YLE has in Finland.
Page 7                                                                                  September 2009


                                                         The Advertising Potential of Wi-Fi MPV
                                                         As mentioned even in 2006 when the EU MPV-
                                                         Broadcast trials were “measuring” AVTs (Daily Av-
                                                         erage Viewing Time) in the 15 to 25 minutes a day
                                                         range, SKT (KR) was netting 60 minutes. At the
                                                         same time, 3G-Only-MPV did manage 5 minutes on
                                                         the average and today it may go as high as 8-10
                                                         minutes. Even though the 2006 SKT figures may
                                                         sound mythical compared to the perceptions cre-
                                                         ated by “the US 3G-Only-MPV making it close to a
                                                         new record of 300 minutes a month,” as said, there
                                                         are icebergs and then there are ice cubes. Wi-Fi
                                                         MPV could easily have access to more than 60% of
                                                         the consumer’s total MPV window, a percentage
                                                         higher than almost all MPV-Broadcast networks
                                                         can lay claim to. Meanwhile, on larger screens Wi-
                                                         Fi can deliver video at quality levels that Broadcast
                                                         and 3G cannot realistically touch.
The Content Owners & the New Entrants                    The part of the report’s analysis that illuminates the
                                                         Wi-Fi MPV Advertising’s potential (already tapped
Some are going to become the new YouTubes or
                                                         by BBC’s iPlayer) deals with both the 3G-Only-MPV
the Googles of the Wi-Fi MPV, and as discussed, the
                                                         preconceptions and also the hundreds of “flying-
new entrants combined with the content owners’
                                                         millions” of US Mobile Advertising dollars. Mobile
emerging plans are what provide the fluidity and
                                                         Advertising still means different things to different
dynamism of the Wi-Fi MPV space.
                                                         people and God only knows what is included in the
Contrary to many 3G-Only in origin “Snack TV”            revenue figures estimated in every case. In Wi-Fi
theories, the fact is that when good MPV is put on       MPV, things are much simpler and more concrete.
the table, many consumers will decide to have at         MPV is first of all video and there are well-
least part of their dinner on Wi-Fi MPV rather than      established norms for how much the consumer’s
traditional TV. In Japan, users often have to adopt      viewing time is worth in different markets. Based on
the so called “One-Segment position” (sit as close to    the pre-crisis (2007) US TV Ad spending per Capita,
a window as possible in order to receive the MPV-        the figure at the bottom shows the number of Wi-Fi
Broadcast signal) and even under these not neces-        MPV users needed in order to enable $100M of the
sarily optimal circumstances, more than 35% of the       Ad Revenue potential as a function of achieving a
MPV-Broadcast consumption happens while at               percentage of the SKT AVT (the most consistent
home. The same is partially true for the Korean T-       around). As it can be seen, it takes just over 2.5M
DMB (figure at top), which mainly built its fortunes     iPhone US Wi-Fi MPV users running at 60% of the
by “catching the consumer” during his travel MPV         SKT AVT in order to create the first $100M of Wi-Fi
window. It has to be noted that the indoor T-DMB         MPV advertising potential. Hulu users already hap-
coverage is, in general, worse than the indoor cov-      pily consume 12 and 15 minute long clips.
erage provided by the Japanese One-Segment.
As discussed, Wi-Fi MPV suffers none of the indoor
reception challenges that exist in the anyway
booming MPV-Macrocell markets of Korea and
Japan. Content owners and new entrants are pro-
vided at least partial access to the consumer’s
prime time without having to build the infrastruc-
ture that cost others billions of dollars to build. On
the other hand and as briefly mentioned on page
6, residential TV delivery players are not about to
sit idle while their networks are partially bypassed,
although some may need time before they visual-
ize how far the MPV things can go.
Page 8                                                                                    September 2009



                                                             TV-Everywhere and the Perfect Wi-Fi MPV Storm
                                                             While Wi-Fi MPV is doing all it can to keep North
                                                             American 3G basestations from catching fire, Hulu’s
                                                             2008 launch and its imminent entry into the UK (as
                                                             well as Microsoft’s) accelerated rather inevitable
                                                             but anyway far-reaching actions by the Residential
                                                             TV majors under the TV-Everywhere umbrella. In
                                                             some cases, it was not only Hulu that may have
                                                             helped arm the trigger but also rather consistent HH
                                                             gains by US IPTV operators against some of the US
                                                             MSOs (bottom figure).
                                                             As discussed, joining the Over The Top (OTT) wave
                                                             was unavoidable but what started as a Comcast-
Wi-Fi MPV, the Savior of the 3G Basestations                 TWC initiative snowballed in a few months time to
Statements made about 3G (HSDPA) data rates in               include, in different degrees, Verizon, AT&T, DISH,
the 7 to 14 Mbits/sec range are indeed correct -             Rogers (Canada), Orange (France) and many oth-
attainable if the user is close enough to the basesta-       ers. The report is of the opinion that the DSLAMs will
tion, but as is well known, a small fraction of this         also avoid catching fire, and that a fraction of what
data rate makes it to the cell’s edge. As far as MPV         some think is implied by the TV-Everywhere visions
goes, the instantaneous 3G data rate was never the           will happen over a significantly longer period of
big headache.                                                time, luckily letting wireline Internet catch its
                                                             breath and adjust its pricing structures.
Instead, the problematic nature of 3G as an MPV
delivery technology has to do with the limited ca-           On the other hand and as discussed in detail, the
pacity of the HSDPA sector, which in practice can            TV-Everywhere concepts contribute to making the
seldom deliver more than 2.4 Mbits/sec, or about             Wi-Fi MPV storm even more “Perfect” than it looked
the same capacity as a low- to medium-end resi-              a few years ago. TV-Everywhere will help address
dential DSL line. It can be challenging for all users        the only real remaining inhibitor of Wi-Fi MPV,
in the sector to browse the Internet out of this “sin-       Prime Content, while at the same time all involved
gle DSL”, but this type of surfing traffic is still highly   are much better off if consumers are streaming 400
compactable. The real problems surface when                  Kbits/sec video to iPhones rather than 2 Mbits/sec
users start streaming over this single DSL. Even at          plus to PCs. In any event, it appears that consum-
96 Kbits/sec, it just takes eight concurrent users to        ers may not need much encouragement in choos-
eat up 1/3 of the HSDPA sector capacity, possibly            ing the Smartphone (or iPod Touch) as the most
the maximum safe threshold before voice calls start          common device for OTT TV viewing and as quanti-
dropping for good.                                           fied, in Japan handsets are challenging the living
                                                             room TV more than laptops are.
As the report discusses, the AT&T 3G network be-
came possibly the most bad-mouthed in the world,
not because it is materially worse than other 3G
networks in existence but mainly because ap-
proximately 53% of the iPhones sold (H1-09) stayed
in North America. The range of 3G sectors shown in
the figure above is dimensioned so as to be rele-
vant to the US figures (all networks) and under-
standably, MPV consumption has already been
witnessed to present a significant rush hour over-
load (lunch time traffic can be about 7 times the
average). In simple terms, MNOs have every rea-
son to encourage iPhone sales (and collect $50
wireless data subscriptions per month) but if it was
not for Wi-Fi MPV, plenty of basestations were (are)
close to catching fire.
Page 9                                                                                   September 2009


                                                          Wi-Fi MPV & the Handset Control
                                                          Not even two years ago (and sometimes even to-
                                                          day), the MNOs’ control over the handset was por-
                                                          trayed as being absolute but today such ideas are
                                                          at a minimum simplistic and often wrong. SKYPE
                                                          made it on the Wi-Fi side of the iPhone despite pro-
                                                          tests by both AT&T and T-Mobile. On the other
                                                          hand, Apple prevented a number of Apps from
                                                          making it into the market if it considered them
                                                          competitive against its own products or plans.
                                                          These facts make evident the handset vendors’
                                                          increasing role in deciding what flies and what
                                                          does not.
                                                          Although the handset vendors’ influence on what
                                                          functionality is supported is increasing, the world-
                                                          wide MPV-related situation is widely varying. As
                                                          discussed, in Korea and Japan the MNOs’ control of
                                                          the handset took less than a year to be broken by
                                                          the MPV-Broadcast offerings. On the other hand, in
                                                          Germany the local market conditions were such
                                                          that the MNOs’ control of the handsets largely pre-
                                                          vented an MPV product (DVB-H) from even being
                                                          launched. Furthermore, in Japan MPV-Broadcast
                                                          forced the iPhone retailer (SoftBank) to hurriedly
                                                          develop an iPhone accessory that was both a bat-
                                                          tery holder and a One-Seg receiver. In the US,
                                                          where MPV-Broadcast does not even have a frac-
                                                          tion of Japan’s strength, Qualcomm also followed
                                                          the external box approach (bottom figure). It has to
                                                          be noted that both markets are still largely untested
The Indoor Challenges of MPV-Broadcast
                                                          in terms of how consumers will react to the need to
The fact that Wi-Fi is the undisputed King of indoor      carry a second box just for the sake of MPV-
MPV delivery is made throughout the report and            Broadcast.
here as well. In Wireless Broadband, indoor per-
formance is usually a taboo subject and the related       Finally and as discussed, things get more complex
slides usually show measurements made with vans           when the handset vendor sees an MPV content
riding as close to the middle of the road as possible     ticket for himself (Apple or RIM) and it is simply not
instead of handsets in consumers’ living rooms or         possible to understand the worldwide Wi-Fi MPV
inside coffee shops. The taboo nature of the issue,       opportunity only on the basis of US-market condi-
though, did not prevent it from becoming the key          tions, which after all keep evolving.
issue in a high-powered July 2009 French MPV
assembly, possibly because it is now evident to all
that the TV-Tower-only EU MPV-Broadcast networks
are simply not going anywhere.
As discussed, nothing about the indoor MPV cov-
erage challenges is particularly new (see 2005 era
figure above) and almost independent of the tech-
nology used. It takes at least 12 more dBs to reach
consumers at street level (than to reach their roof-
tops) and 15 more dBs to make it indoors. Due to
these simple facts of life (or Physics), Wi-Fi’s indoor
dominance is not about to be effectively chal-
lenged in most MPV-Broadcast markets.
Page 10                                                                              September 2009


                                                       The Report’s Analytical Results & Findings
                                                       As of July 2007, the TeleAnalytics MPV-related
                                                       publications have followed a Unified Analytical
                                                       MPV Model which allows both historical and pro-
                                                       jected data sets for a variety of markets and tech-
                                                       nologies to be put in the same context year after
                                                       year. A white paper describing the rather terminal
                                                       (in terms of resolution) Unified Analytical Model
                                                       and the market mechanisms taken into account is
                                                       available upon request.
                                                       Part of this wealth of data sets from four years of
                                                       MPV is brought into this report. For reasons of econ-
                                                       omy of space, comparisons between MPV-
                                                       Broadcast or 3G-Only-MPV and Wi-Fi MPV data sets
                                                       are kept under control and readers that want to
                                                       understand more about the Broadcast part of the
                                                       MPV business will be much better served by other
                                                       specialized TeleAnalytics publications. On the other
Wi-Fi MPV & Wi-Fi Availability                         hand, historical or projected MPV-Broadcast or 3G-
The report discusses in detail the role that Public    Only-MPV data sets are brought in whenever they
Access (PA) WLANs play in Wi-Fi MPV and the            help establish context, with a special emphasis on
increasing usage of PA WLANs as “network exten-        the NA market where MPV-Broadcast, 3G-Only-
sions” for major operators. Beyond AT&T’s high pro-    MPV and Wi-Fi MPV will soon enter a period of
file acquisition of Wayport, Cablevision’s $200M Wi-   mass coexistence, competition and cooperation.
Fi investment and Verizon’s recent return to the PA    Beyond the wealth of analytical results included in
WLAN market, the Smartphones’ increased popu-          the report (from the evolution of IPTV HHs to the
larity has worked marvels for the anyway rapidly       number of Wi-Fi hotpots), the figure at the bottom
increasing number of Wi-Fi hotspots. The report        summarizes the Wi-Fi MPV-specific forecasts and
includes hotspot data (the figure at the top shows     some simplifications in the Unified Analytical MPV
the Hong Kong situation) and it is evident that the    Model were considered to provide for economy of
various Wi-Fi directories cannot keep up with the      space. The regional segments count is now down to
grassroots hotspot sprawl. Mobile-Voice and MPV        six (by merging WE and EE) and some of the de-
consumption have by now been proven to have            vice types common in MPV-Broadcast were not
radically different characteristics and the report     deemed relevant to the Wi-Fi MPV context (em-
analyzes MPV consumption in public places and its      bedded automotive receivers for instance).
current trends.
Additionally and as analyzed, home and the
workplace account for more than 55% of the total
MPV window and more than 80% of the total time
that the consumer is potentially available for Wi-Fi
MPV viewing purposes (35% of the total Japanese
MPV consumption happens while at home). As
discussed and contrary to other wireless delivery
methods, the Wi-Fi MPV potential is constrained by
neither video quality nor network quality. At this
point in time, the biggest obstacle to getting Wi-Fi
MPV to Japanese indoor consumption levels is the
lack of prime Wi-Fi MPV content. The entries of
Orange, SFR and T-Mobile already witnessed in the
Wi-FI MPV space (up to 60 prime channels) is clear
evidence of the fact that key enablers to Wi-Fi MPV
are falling into place.
Page 11                                                                                      September 2009

Putting HSDPA, Broadcast, Wi-Fi and Combos (with Wi-Fi) on Even Ground
Understandably, the consumer does not care much about how his daily MPV dosage arrives to him provided
that it is of satisfactory video quality, that it is available where he wants to consume it and that it is of suffi-
cient content quality (the price has to be right as well). The Orange, SFR and T-Mobile Wi-Fi Prime-Content
MPV entries mean that quite a few already understand that there are some fundamental differences be-
tween MPV (raw or in combo with Macrocell offerings) and general-purpose Internet TV. On the other hand,
content cannot save (or make) the day if the consumer is not reached consistently enough or if when he is
reached, the video quality is inadequate. The report brings to bear four years of MPV experiences, the proper
analytical constructs, it has “information-only” use of the torrents of the promotional slide decks from all sides
and a deep understanding of both HSDPA and Wi-Fi “as designed but also as deployed.” Finally, the build-
out and the capabilities of the MPV Broadcast networks are tracked on an ongoing basis.
On this basis, the report compares the Mean Video-Quality Acceptability and Spatial Network Adequacy of
MPV delivery through HPSDA, Wi-Fi and 10 Broadcast networks (12 cases in all), plus the macrocell-Wi-Fi
Combos for all of them (11 more networks-products). MPV Broadcast is badly fragmented and looking at
things on the basis of 10 individual networks is unavoidable. The end 2009 date is chosen in order to allow
the Korean MIPI developments time to converge, while a 3.25” QVGA Smartphone has been assumed. The
MPV networks that have been put on even ground along with their respective Combos (with Wi-Fi) are: Wi-
Fi, HSDPA, T-DMB (KR), S-DMB (KR), One-Seg (JP), One-Seg (BR), FLO (US), ATSC-M/H (US), CMMB (CN), 3-Italy
(DVB-H), KPN (DVB-H) and Other-DVB-H. Some of the results of the analysis are shown below and it is obvious
that Wi-Fi MPV is not an ice-cubes affair but a good sized iceberg. Some will try it in the raw and plenty will
see (or have already seen) the obvious potential that exists for network extension and video-quality en-
hancement in Macrocell/Wi-Fi MPV Combos.
TOC - 1                                                                                                                      September 2009



                                                             Table Of Contents

0. RELEASE NOTES ................................................................................................................. 13

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 14

    1.1. QUALITATIVE POINTS ............................................................................................................................. 15

    1.2. QUANTITATIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 23

2. CONVERGENCE AND THE CURRENT MPV CONTEXT ................................................................ 26

    2.1. THE FOUR CONVERGENCE SUBSPACES AND THEIR TECHNOLOGICAL BASIS ...................................................... 27

    2.2. THE VOIP DISTURBANCE AND THE CROSS BORDER INVASIONS ..................................................................... 30

    2.3. THE STAKING OF THE MPV SPACE ........................................................................................................... 32
         2.3.1. The Three MPV Delivery Alternatives and the End 2008 MPV Market Shares ........................... 32
         2.3.2. The MPV Space Prospectors and Their Employed Delivery Methods ....................................... 34

    2.4. WI-FI MPV AND 2 PRIMERS .................................................................................................................. 36
         2.4.1. IPTV, Internet TV and Wi-Fi MPV.............................................................................................. 36
              2.4.1.1. The IPTV Network and the IPTV Service Uptake ................................................................................. 37
              2.4.1.2. Internet TV & Wi-Fi MPV ..................................................................................................................... 40
         2.4.2. The MPV-Broadcast Technologies and Wi-Fi MPV.................................................................... 42

    2.5. VOIP AND THE DUAL MODE HANDSETS .................................................................................................... 46

    2.6. MPV AND FROM THE MNOS’ WALLED GARDENS TO THE SMARTPHONE VENDORS’ APP STORES ....................... 47

3. THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MPV CONSUMER ACCEPTABILITY ...................................................... 54

    3.1. THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MPV VIDEO QUALITY........................................................................................... 55
         3.1.1. The Content Dependency of Perceived Video Quality................................................................ 56
         3.1.2. The Cardinal Dependency of MPV Acceptability on the AV Data Rate ....................................... 57
         3.1.3. Smartphones, Wi-Fi and Pushing the AV Data Rate Envelope................................................... 59

    3.2. HANDHELD MPV - SCREEN SIZE MATTERS (UP TO A POINT) ........................................................................ 61
         3.2.1. Wi-Fi Device Types and Practical Handheld-MPV Screen Sizes ................................................ 61
         3.2.2. The Fundamentals of the MPV Device Screen Size ................................................................... 62
         3.2.3. The Wireless Technology Video-Quality/Device-Type Matrix..................................................... 64

4. SERVICING THE CONSUMER’S DAILY MPV DOSAGE (OR WINDOWS)........................................... 66

    4.1. THE WHEN AND WHERE OF THE MPV DEMAND & CONSUMPTION ................................................................. 67

    4.2. TIME USE STATISTICS AND THE DECOUPLING OF MPV DEMAND FROM THE MPV SUPPLY ................................. 68
         4.2.1. Time Use Statistics................................................................................................................... 69
         4.2.2. The Consumer’s MPV Windows ............................................................................................... 70
         4.2.3. MPV Windows and the Spatial Breakdown of the MPV Consumption in US, KR. JP................. 74
TOC - 2                                                                                                                 September 2009


      4.3. MPV Windows and the Temporal Breakdown of the MPV Consumption...................................... 75

  4.4. SERVICING-ILLUMINATING THE CONSUMER’S MPV WINDOWS ..................................................................... 78
      4.4.1. The Uniform Flashlight Illumination Case: 3G-MPV.................................................................. 83
      4.4.2. The Wi-Fi MPV Illumination...................................................................................................... 84
      4.4.3. The Highly Variability MPV-Windows Illumination Case: MPV-Broadcast................................. 86
      4.4.4. The Reach and Video Quality of the Wi-FI-Macrocell MPV Products ........................................ 88

  4.5. MPV DELIVERY ALTERNATIVES-COMBOS AND THE VIDEO-QUALITY/DELIVERY-ADEQUACY MATRIX .................... 91

  4.6. MACROCELL, WI-FI AND COMBO MPV: THE NOMADICITY/MOBILITY OF MPV CONSUMPTION ........................... 93

  4.7. THE DAILY AVERAGE VIEWING TIME (AVT) ............................................................................................... 96
      4.7.1. The Cardinality of the AVT Metric ............................................................................................. 96
      4.7.2. The Evolution of the MPV AVT: Network-Quality or Content Constrained MPV ......................... 98

  4.8. WIRELESS IPTV (WI-FI MPV) VERSUS 3G-MPV AND MPV-BROADCAST .................................................. 102
      4.8.1. The Unparalleled Wi-Fi MPV Content Diversity ....................................................................... 102
      4.8.2. Wi-Fi MPV Interactivity........................................................................................................... 103

  4.9. APPENDIX: THE MPV BROADCAST, WI-FI MPV AND 3G-MPV DELIVERY EFFICIENCY.................................... 105
      4.9.1. The Highly Variable-Broadcast Illumination of the MPV-Windows.......................................... 106
           4.9.1.1. The Size of the Indoor Coverage Problem in MPV-Broadcast........................................................... 106
           4.9.1.2. The MPV-Broadcast Deployment Patterns and the Wi-Fi MPV Opportunity ..................................... 109
      4.9.2. The Wi-Fi Illumination of the MPV Windows .......................................................................... 111
           4.9.2.1. The Wi-Fi MPV Proposition @Home ................................................................................................. 113
           4.9.2.2. The Wi-Fi MPV Proposition @Work .................................................................................................. 114
           4.9.2.3. Public Access (PA) WLANs ............................................................................................................... 115
           4.9.2.4. Large Area (metro) PA WLANs ......................................................................................................... 117
      4.9.3. 3G-MPV Coverage and Capacity............................................................................................. 121

5. THE WI-FI MPV BUSINESS CONTEXT: CASE STUDIES, MAJOR PLAYER ROLES & NEW ENTRANTS ...125

  5.1. INTERNET TV AND THE UPCOMING WI-FI MPV CONTENT ADEQUACY .......................................................... 126

  5.2. THE PRINCIPLES OF THE WI-FI MPV ADOPTION ...................................................................................... 128
      5.2.1. The FTA versus PAY MPV Track Record [2005-2009] & the Wi-Fi MPV Implications ............. 128
      5.2.2. The Addressable Wi-Fi MPV Market Size................................................................................ 129
      5.2.3. Wi-Fi MPV Users and Smartphone Owners ............................................................................ 131
      5.2.4. The Wi-Fi MPV Population Penetration Dynamics .................................................................. 132

  5.3. THE HIGH WI-FI-MPV COOPERATIVENESS TO CREDIBLE AUDIENCE MEASUREMENT ...................................... 134

  5.4. WI-FI MPV AND INTERNET TV CASE STUDIES ......................................................................................... 137
      5.4.1. The BBC’s iPlayer Phenomenon and its Size........................................................................... 138
           5.4.1.1. The Evolution of BBC’s iPlayer .......................................................................................................... 138
           5.4.1.2. The iPlayer’s Usage Statistics and the Implications to MPV ............................................................. 140
           5.4.1.3. The iPlayer Technology Basis and the Troubles with the UK ISPs .................................................... 142
           5.4.1.4. Kangaroo, Canvas and the Difficulties of Disturbing the EU TV Status Quo ..................................... 144
      5.4.2. Hulu ....................................................................................................................................... 145
TOC - 3                                                                                                                       September 2009


       5.4.3. Sling Media & the iPhone....................................................................................................... 146
       5.4.4. Netflix and the Long Content Tail............................................................................................ 148
       5.4.5. The Today’s MPV Bread and Butter: The Google Sites ............................................................ 149
       5.4.6. The iTunes Store .................................................................................................................... 151

   5.5. WI-FI MPV AND THE TRADITIONAL WIRELINE AND WIRELESS TV PLAYERS ................................................. 152
       5.5.1. Residential TV Distribution, Internet TV and Wi-Fi MPV ......................................................... 152
            5.5.1.1. The Changing Face of the US Traditional TV-Telecoms Balance of Power........................................ 153
            5.5.1.2. The Strategies of the Residential TV Majors in the Internet TV and MPV Era ................................... 156
              5.5.1.2.1. The MSOs ................................................................................................................................... 156
              5.5.1.2.2. ILECs and IPTV Operators .......................................................................................................... 158
              5.5.1.2.3. DTH Operators ............................................................................................................................ 159
              5.5.1.2.4. Broadcasters and the US Local TV Stations................................................................................ 160
       5.5.2. MNOs, Wi-Fi MPV and Convergent Offerings (Combos)......................................................... 161
            5.5.2.1. 3G-MPV and Wi-Fi MPV .................................................................................................................... 163
              5.5.2.1.1. The Case of the Orange UMA-Based Wi-Fi MPV ......................................................................... 166
              5.5.2.1.2. The Case of T-Mobile .................................................................................................................. 168
            5.5.2.2. Wi-Fi MPV and the Threat-Opportunity to MPV-Broadcasting .......................................................... 169

   5.6. WI-FI MPV BUSINESS MODELS & ADVERTISING REVENUE ....................................................................... 170
       5.6.1. PAY-Here, PAY-Elsewhere and Over the Top WI-Fi MPV ......................................................... 170
       5.6.2. The Valuation of the Wi-Fi MPV Ad Revenue Potential in Major Markets ................................ 172
       5.6.3. The Evolution of the Wi-Fi MPV Daily Average Viewing Time per User (AVT) ......................... 175
            5.6.3.1. Overview and Current Context........................................................................................................... 175
            5.6.3.2. The Ad-Revenue Valuation of the comScore Figures & Actual.......................................................... 176
            5.6.3.3. Daily MPV-Broadcast Viewing Time and Implications to Wi-Fi-MPV Ad Revenue Generation.......... 177
       5.6.4. Example: US Wi-Fi MPV and US MPV-Broadcast Ad Revenue Evolution [2007-13] .............. 179
            5.6.4.1. Methodological Notes and The Five Cases Addressed ...................................................................... 179
            5.6.4.2. The Evolution of the AVTs and Total Viewing Time of the Five US Cases ......................................... 181
            5.6.4.3. The Evolution of the Ad Revenue Potential of the Five US Cases...................................................... 183

6. THE TECHNOLOGICAL DIMENSIONS OF WI-FI MPV ...............................................................186

   6.1. THE MPV CONTENT PIPELINE AND THE BACKENDS – HEADENDS ................................................................ 187
       6.1.1. OS, SDKs and MPV Players.................................................................................................... 188
       6.1.2. The Rush to Conquer the MPV Application Layer .................................................................. 189
            6.1.2.1. Adobe, Flash Lite and Flash 10 For Smartphones ............................................................................. 189
            6.1.2.2. Microsoft and Silverlight ................................................................................................................... 191
            6.1.2.3. The Flash-Silverlight Smartphone Landscape in Q2-09 .................................................................... 192
       6.1.3. Repurposing Content for the Third Screen ............................................................................. 193

   6.2. MULTI SCREEN CONTENT PROTECTION AND THE DIFFERENT POINTS OF DEPARTURE....................................... 197
       6.2.1. The CA Cable, DTH & IPTV Traditions .................................................................................... 197
       6.2.2. The MPV-Broadcast Soul Searching and Fragmentation......................................................... 198
       6.2.3. Connected Devices SIMs and 3G-MPV................................................................................... 198
       6.2.4. OTT TV, Wi-Fi MPV , TV-Everywhere and who was (is) Ready for it ....................................... 198

   6.3. ESTIMATING AND MANAGING THE MPV TRAFFIC ...................................................................................... 200
TOC - 4                                                                                                                September 2009


         6.3.1. The BBC’s iPlayer Debates and the Health of the Wireline and Wireless Internet .................... 201
              6.3.1.1. The Wireline Internet Traffic Evolution under 1/10 of the TV-Everywhere Visions............................ 201
              6.3.1.2. Nodes B Catch Fire Much Faster Than DSLAMs ............................................................................... 204
         6.3.2. Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) ........................................................................................ 205
         6.3.3. The Evolution of the MPV in Origin Internet Traffic................................................................. 209

    6.4. THE MPV IMPLICATIONS TO HOME NETWORKING .................................................................................... 211

    6.5. THE WI-FI MPV HANDHELD-DEVICE SPACE............................................................................................ 213
         6.5.1. The Smartphone Space .......................................................................................................... 216
              6.5.1.1. The Overlap of the Smartphone – PMP – PND - GS Spaces ............................................................. 216
              6.5.1.2. The Track Record of Smartphone Sales and Outlook [2007-2013] .................................................. 217
              6.5.1.3. Smartphones and MPV-Broadcast .................................................................................................... 220
         6.5.2. The PMP and Game-Consoles Space ..................................................................................... 223
         6.5.3. The Tablet-Netbook Space...................................................................................................... 225

7. THE REGIONAL WI-FI MPV & MACROCELL (3G-BROADACST) MPV OUTLOOK .........................227

    7.1. THE REGIONAL WI-FI/SMARTPHONE REGULATORY AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ......................................... 229
         7.1.1. North America........................................................................................................................ 229
         7.1.2. Europe ................................................................................................................................... 230
         7.1.3. Developed APAC, Japan, Korea and WIPI............................................................................... 231
         7.1.4. China and WAPI Smartphones ............................................................................................... 233

    7.2. THE REGIONAL MACROCELL (3G & BROADCAST) MPV AND INTERNET -TV LANDSCAPE ................................ 234
         7.2.1. Overview of the 3G MPV and MPV Broadcast Adoption [2007-13] ........................................ 234
         7.2.2. The DAPAC (Developed APAC) MPV-Broadcast Forts............................................................. 235
         7.2.3. The Troubled European MPV-Broadcast Environment and the Internet TV Entries.................. 236
         7.2.4. SARFT, the Chinese CMMB and the First Steps of Chinese Internet TV................................... 238
         7.2.5. Past, Present and Future of the US FLO and ATSC-M/H ......................................................... 240
         7.2.6. The in Progress Japanese DTT/MPV-Broadcast Takeover of South America .......................... 242
         7.2.7. Macrocell MPV in the Rest of the World (RoW) ..................................................................... 243

    7.3. SUMMARY AND MAP OF THE REGIONAL WI-FI MPV OUTLOOK ................................................................... 244

    7.4. SUMMARY OF THE MPV BROADCAST AND WI-FI MPV COMBO POTENTIAL .................................................. 246

    7.5. WI-FI MPV AND THE THREAT-OPPORTUNITY TO THE US MPV-BROADCAST ................................................. 248

8. FORECASTS ......................................................................................................................251

    8.1. REGIONAL SEGMENTATION ................................................................................................................... 252

    8.2. DEVICE SEGMENTATION ....................................................................................................................... 253

    8.3. USER TYPES ...................................................................................................................................... 253

    8.4. THE TERMINAL REPLACEMENT PROCESS ................................................................................................ 254

    8.5. SUMMARY OF THE FORECASTED ENTITIES & SEGMENTS ............................................................................ 256
TOC - 5                                                                                                           September 2009


    8.6. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 256
         8.6.1. Analytical Preliminaries .......................................................................................................... 257
         8.6.2. Brief Description of the Forecasting Model............................................................................. 258

    8.7. ORGANIZATIONAL NOTES ON THE FORECASTS .......................................................................................... 260
         8.7.1. Smartphone & Wi-Fi MPV Users [07-13] ............................................................................... 261
         8.7.2. Smartphone & Wi-Fi MPV Devices Sold [07-13] .................................................................... 263
         8.7.3. Revenue of Smartphone & Wi-Fi MPV Devices Sold [07-13] ................................................. 265
         8.7.4. Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User [07-13]............................................................... 267
         8.7.5. Average Monthly Wi-Fi MPV Viewing [07-13] ........................................................................ 270
         8.7.6. Monthly Wi-Fi MPV Internet Traffic [07-13] ........................................................................... 271
              8.7.6.1. Wi-Fi MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ................................................. 271
              8.7.6.2. MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] - Device Type Breakdown ..................................................... 272
         8.7.7. Annual Wi-Fi MPV Advertising Revenue [07-13] .................................................................... 276


                                                          Table Of Figures


Figure 1 The Technological Challenges of Convergence................................................................................. 27
Figure 2 Convergence = Cross-Domain Invasions ......................................................................................... 31
Figure 3 The Total UK Household Telecoms - Entertainment Spending .......................................................... 31
Figure 4 Breakdown of the UK Household Telecoms - Entertainment Spending............................................. 31
Figure 5 3G-MPV, MPV-Broadcast & Wi-Fi MPV Market Shares (end 08)...................................................... 33
Figure 6 The MPV Space Prospectors and Their Employed Delivery Methods ............................................... 35
Figure 7 The IPTV Networking Alternatives.................................................................................................... 38
Figure 8 IPTV Households (2007-13, mil.) .................................................................................................... 39
Figure 9 PCCW IPTV (HK): HH Penetration (Installed & PAY) ........................................................................ 39
Figure 10 Multinetwork Streaming & the Apple 3.0 SDK................................................................................ 40
Figure 11 US Internet TV: Average Monthly Consumption (min.)................................................................... 41
Figure 12 The MPV-Broadcast Platforms /Air-Interface Matrix....................................................................... 43
Figure 13 The MPV-Broadcast AV Data Rates in Use ..................................................................................... 44
Figure 14 MPV (B) Population Penetration (12+, Q1-09) ............................................................................... 45
Figure 15 MPV (B) Population Market Shares (Users, Q1-09) ....................................................................... 45
Figure 16 The IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) Vision................................................................................... 49
Figure 17 The Simplified Mobile Video Quality Space .................................................................................... 55
Figure 18 BT Movio’s AV Data Rate................................................................................................................ 57
Figure 19 Content Dependency of Acceptable MoTV Data Rates.................................................................... 56
Figure 20 T-DMB (KR): MoTV Content Density Function................................................................................ 58
Figure 21 Average MoTV Acceptability Versus AV Data Rate.......................................................................... 58
Figure 22 A Posteriori 3G-MPV Service Usability (2006 Surveys) ................................................................. 59
Figure 23 User Acceptability: MPV Data Rates & Screen Sizes ...................................................................... 60
TOC - 6                                                                                                     September 2009


Figure 24 PMPs: Screen Size (Inches) & Resolution (K-pixels) ..................................................................... 61
Figure 25 Smartphones: Screen Size (Inch) & Resolution (K-pixels) ............................................................. 61
Figure 26 Range of Screen Sizes (inches) of Wi-Fi Devices ........................................................................... 62
Figure 27 Device Screen Size & Video Acceptability ...................................................................................... 63
Figure 28 Handheld MPV Screen Size & Video Acceptability ......................................................................... 63
Figure 29 Viewing Places Distribution: KR (T-DMB) & JP.............................................................................. 67
Figure 30 Time Use Statistics: Sweden – Men [20-74 years of age] .............................................................. 69
Figure 31 Average Free and Travel Time MPV Windows (in 15 European Countries) ..................................... 71
Figure 32 The Consumer’s 1-D MPV Window ................................................................................................ 73
Figure 33 MPV Windows and Spatial Breakdown of the MPV Consumption in US, KR. JP ............................ 74
Figure 34 Temporal MPV Windows (weekday)............................................................................................... 76
Figure 35 Temporal MPV Demand Distribution (weekday)............................................................................. 77
Figure 36 The One-Seg (JP) Consumption Density Function (Q1-08) ............................................................ 77
Figure 37 Spatial Network Delivery Efficiency ............................................................................................... 78
Figure 38 Korean Automotive MPV Penetration 2006-09............................................................................... 80
Figure 39 The 3G, Wi-Fi and Broadcast Illumination of the MPV Windows .................................................... 81
Figure 40 The Experimentally Determined Network Edge in the Hong Kong Urban Canyons.......................... 81
Figure 41 AVQA of the Reference Screen (3.25”, QVGA)................................................................................ 82
Figure 42 3G: Illumination of the Consumer’s MPV Windows........................................................................ 83
Figure 43 3G: Serviced and Non-Serviced Parts of the MPV Windows .......................................................... 83
Figure 44 Wi-Fi: Illumination of the Consumer’s MPV Windows .................................................................... 84
Figure 45 Wi-Fi: Serviced and Non-Serviced Parts of the MPV Windows ...................................................... 84
Figure 46 Comparison of the 3G and Wi-FI MPV Performance Indices ......................................................... 85
Figure 47 Broadcast Illumination of the Consumer’s MPV Windows.............................................................. 87
Figure 48 Broadcast Serviced and Non-Serviced Parts of the MPV Windows ................................................ 87
Figure 49 Comparison of the 3G, Wi-FI and Broadcast MPV Performance Indices ...................................... 87
Figure 50 The Performance of a T-DMB (KR) Plus Wi-Fi MPV Combo........................................................... 88
Figure 51 Broadcast-Combo: Illumination of the Consumer’s MPV Windows ............................................... 89
Figure 52 Broadcast-Combo: Serviced and Non-Serviced Parts of the MPV Windows .................................. 89
Figure 53 3G-Combo: Illumination of the Consumer’s MPV Windows .......................................................... 89
Figure 54 3G-Combo: Serviced and Non-Serviced Parts of the MPV Windows.............................................. 89
Figure 55 The Performance Gains of the Combo MPV Products.................................................................... 90
Figure 56 MPV Delivery Alternatives: Spatial Adequacy and Video Quality Acceptability Matrix..................... 91
Figure 57 Normalized Performance Spread Among Macrocell-Only and Combo MPV Products. ................... 92
Figure 58 The pdf of the Daily Number of Sessions ....................................................................................... 93
Figure 59 Mobile Voice Single Session Duration CDF .................................................................................... 94
Figure 60 MPV Single Session Duration CDF (JP, KR) ................................................................................... 94
Figure 61 The CDF of the Desired MPV Program Length ............................................................................... 96
Figure 62 Variability of the Personal Daily AVT (H1-09) ................................................................................. 97
Figure 63 US Mobile Minutes of Use per Day (DOU) ..................................................................................... 98
TOC - 7                                                                                                   September 2009


Figure 64 US Mobile Internet-TV DOUs (per Day).......................................................................................... 98
Figure 65 S-DMB (KR): MPV-Broadcast DOUs (per Day)............................................................................... 98
Figure 66 The Evolution of the AVTs in MPV-Broadcast (KR, & JP) and Internet TV/Wi-Fi MPV .................... 99
Figure 67 Variability of the Personal Daily AVT (H1-09) ............................................................................... 100
Figure 68 Performance Of 3G-MPV, MPV-Broadcast and Wi-Fi MPV........................................................... 100
Figure 69 Average Number of TV Channels Per MPV Delivery Alternative.................................................... 102
Figure 70 The Berlin Vodafone-DE DVB Trial: Indoor & Outdoor Coverage .................................................. 107
Figure 71 The capabilities of Tower-Only MPV Deployments ....................................................................... 107
Figure 72 Indoor-Outdoor Coverage in 10 MPV-Broadcast Network Classes ............................................... 110
Figure 73 Tier 1 & 2 Markets: Wi-Fi Coverage of the Indoor MPV Windows ............................................... 111
Figure 74 Tier 1 & 2 Markets: Cumulative Wi-Fi Coverage of the Indoor MPV Windows............................ 111
Figure 75 Household Broadband Penetration (Q4-08) ................................................................................. 113
Figure 76 MPV Windows & MPV Consumption Locations........................................................................... 115
Figure 77 Average Workplace Internet Penetration in OECD Countries (Q3-08) ........................................... 115
Figure 78 Number of Hong Kong Hotspots (July 2009) ............................................................................... 116
Figure 79 The WW Number of Wi-Fi Hotspots [2004-13] ............................................................................ 116
Figure 80 PA Wi-Fi Hotspot Type Shares ( Q2-09) ....................................................................................... 117
Figure 81 Cumulative Wi-Fi & HSDPA Coverage of the Indoor MPV Windows........................................... 121
Figure 82 iPhone Related Complaints (Respondents %).............................................................................. 121
Figure 83 CDF of the HSDPA Sector Capacity .............................................................................................. 123
Figure 84 Number of Concurrent HSDPA MPV Sessions (96 Kbits/sec) ...................................................... 123
Figure 85 The US MPV Balance of Power (Q2-09)....................................................................................... 127
Figure 86 he US MPV Balance of Power (Q2-10)......................................................................................... 127
Figure 87 The Korean FTA-PAY Duel [2005-09] ........................................................................................... 128
Figure 88 WW FTA, PAY, MIXED MPV Broadcast Market Shares [2005-09]................................................. 128
Figure 89 Japanese (FTA) and Italian (PAY) Addressable MPV-Broadcast Markets ..................................... 129
Figure 90 Comparison of the Japanese to the Italian Mobile Market (Italy =100%)...................................... 129
Figure 91 Smartphone Subs and Wi-Fi MPV Users...................................................................................... 132
Figure 92 NA Smartphone Owners and Wi-Fi MPV Users (mil.)................................................................... 131
Figure 93 Maximum Quarterly Pop. Penetration (12+) for major MPV Offerings ......................................... 132
Figure 94 One-Seg MPV (JP): Quarterly Pop. Penetration (12+).................................................................. 132
Figure 95 US Smartphone-Based Wi-Fi MPV Population Penetration ......................................................... 134
Figure 96 Mobile Subscriber Penetration of MPV-Broadcast and 3G-MPV (Q4-08) ..................................... 133
Figure 97 T-DMB-Advertising Discount Rate ............................................................................................... 135
Figure 98 UK: Total TV Viewing Hours per Week.......................................................................................... 140
Figure 99 Viewing Requests (M) per Month (TV,PC).................................................................................... 140
Figure 100 BBC Weekly iPlayer Viewing Requests per Broadband and Cable HH (December 2008) ........... 140
Figure 101 BBC iPlayer Annual Usage (an OFCOM study)............................................................................ 141
Figure 102 BBC iPlayer and One-Seg (JP ) Usage........................................................................................ 141
Figure 103 The BBC iPlayer Temporal Viewing Distribution ......................................................................... 142
TOC - 8                                                                                                          September 2009


Figure 104 BBC iPlayer - Willingness to Pay................................................................................................ 144
Figure 105 The Hulu Ownership (H1-09) ..................................................................................................... 145
Figure 106 The Evolution of the Hulu Videos-Served. .................................................................................. 145
Figure 107 The Sling Media MPV Solution................................................................................................... 147
Figure 108 The Long Tail of the Content Distribution ................................................................................... 148
Figure 109 The Netflix Revenue and Net ($M) ............................................................................................. 148
Figure 110 he Google Video Sites Dominance (3/09)................................................................................... 150
Figure 111 Watching Video On Sharing Sites .............................................................................................. 149
Figure 112 The iTunes Sales (2005-2009) ................................................................................................... 151
Figure 113 US Broadband Market Shares (Q1-09)...................................................................................... 154
Figure 114 US Broadband Market New Adds (Q1-09).................................................................................. 154
Figure 115 The Evolution of the Comcast Basic Video Subs ........................................................................ 154
Figure 116 Q1-09: Residential-TV Wins and Losses (K- HHs....................................................................... 154
Figure 117 The FiOS Inroads [Q4-06 to Q2-09] ........................................................................................... 155
Figure 118 The Redistribution and Disappearance of the US Landlines (M)................................................. 155
Figure 119 The Red-Yellow-Green MPV Status of the US Residential TV Majors ......................................... 156
Figure 120 The TV Anywhere Groups .......................................................................................................... 157
Figure 121 The Performance Gains of the Combo MPV Products................................................................ 161
Figure 122 Video Acceptability and Spatial Adequacy of 3G and Convergent 3G-MPV................................. 164
Figure 123 The Balance of Power between 3G and Over the Top (OT) MPV................................................. 166
Figure 124 The Orange UMA MPV Architecture ........................................................................................... 166
Figure 125 PAY-Here, PAY-Elsewhere and FOTT Wi-Fi MPV ......................................................................... 170
Figure 126 Valuation of the MPV Viewing Minute Relative to Traditional TV ................................................ 173
Figure 127 Valuation (at par) of the T-DMB (KR) Ad Revenue & Actual ....................................................... 173
Figure 128 US-2008: Consumer Time Spent in Media (%) - Ad Spent in Media (%) ................................... 173
Figure 129 TV Ad Spending-Per-Capita ($) / GDP-Per-Capita ($K,2007)...................................................... 174
Figure 130 Traditional TV Viewing Minutes per Day -2007.......................................................................... 174
Figure 131 TV Ad Spending Per Capita (USD) -2007 .................................................................................. 174
Figure 132 TV Ad Spending Per Viewing Hour (USD) -2007....................................................................... 174
Figure 133 US: Wi-Fi MPV, 3G-MPV & FLO TV ........................................................................................... 177
Figure 134 WW Hours of Monthly MPV Programming Viewed .................................................................... 178
Figure 135 Korean Automotive MPV Penetration (Users) in Addressable Passenger Car Registrations ...... 181
Figure 136 Ad Revenue Calculation Flowchart ............................................................................................. 179
Figure 137 US-JP: MPV Users (M) [2007-13] ............................................................................................. 182
Figure 138 US-JP : MPV AVTs (minutes) [2007-13] .................................................................................... 182
Figure 139 Total Viewing Hours Per Month (M)........................................................................................... 183
Figure 140 Total Potential Annual Ad Revenue (M, USD)............................................................................. 183
Figure 141 The MPV Pipeline....................................................................................................................... 187
Figure 142 Smartphone OS Market Shares (Q4-08) .................................................................................... 188
Figure 143 The Adobe Flash Player PCs-Penetration (End 08)..................................................................... 190
TOC - 9                                                                                                           September 2009


Figure 144 The Silverlight Stack .................................................................................................................. 191
Figure 145 The Silverlight Installs and Timeline........................................................................................... 191
Figure 146 Apple Smartphone Market Share Q2-08 & Q2-09 ...................................................................... 192
Figure 147 Smartphone Market Shares & the Silverlight-Flash Alliances (Q2-09)........................................ 192
Figure 148 Video Encoding, Transcoding and Repurposing ......................................................................... 194
Figure 149 Video Encoding, Transcoding and Repurposing ......................................................................... 194
Figure 150 MPV-Broadcast CA and Non CA Market Shares (Users, Q1-09)................................................. 198
Figure 151 The Verinatrix ViewRight Mobile Content Protection System ..................................................... 199
Figure 152 Monthly Internet Traffic per Capita (2008, Gbytes)..................................................................... 202
Figure 153 Worldwide YTY Median Internet Traffic Growth ......................................................................... 202
Figure 154 The Telus (CA) Internet Traffic Growth ....................................................................................... 203
Figure 155 Canadian Internet Traffic Composition ...................................................................................... 203
Figure 156 The Evolution of the Average Inbound Traffic Per Telus Sub (Kbits/sec) .................................... 203
Figure 157 The Opera Browser WW Traffic per Month (Tbytes)................................................................... 204
Figure 158 UK: Mobile Data & MPV [Q4-06 to Q2-08]................................................................................. 204
Figure 159 The Evolution in the Number of CDN Companies ....................................................................... 206
Figure 160 The CDN Price Per Delivered Gigabyte (Q1-09).......................................................................... 206
Figure 161 The CDNs Evolution and Trends................................................................................................. 205
Figure 162 High Level Akamai CDN Diagram and the iPhone....................................................................... 206
Figure 163 NA HSDPA Sectors Needed to Meet the Cisco Forecasts ........................................................... 209
Figure 164 Total Number of US Cell Sites (CTIA) ......................................................................................... 209
Figure 165 NA: Wi-Fi MPV Traffic (PBytes) per Month & Percentage of the Cisco Consumer IP Traffic ...... 210
Figure 166 NA: Wi-Fi MPV Consumption - Billions of Minutes per Month .................................................. 210
Figure 167 The Throughput of the IEEE802.11 Family ............................................................................... 211
Figure 168 The IEEE802.11g Performance in a Typical SFU......................................................................... 212
Figure 169 The Performance of Beamforming IEEE802.11g APs ................................................................ 212
Figure 170 The Korean MPV Broadcast Market Shares (Users) ................................................................... 214
Figure 171 The Overlaps of the Smartphone-PMP-PND-GS Spaces ............................................................ 216
Figure 172 UK Smartphone Sales [Q1-05 to Q1-09].................................................................................... 218
Figure 173 WW Smartphone Sales [H1-07 to H2-09] - Millions .................................................................. 218
Figure 174 WW Smartphone Annual Sales [07-13] - Millions...................................................................... 218
Figure 175 NA: iPhone & Smartphone Sales................................................................................................ 219
Figure 176 NA: Smartphone, MPV Users & MPV Devices Annually Sold [2007-13] ................................... 219
Figure 177 NA: Wi-FI PMPs and GCs Sold [2007-09] .................................................................................. 223
Figure 178 NA: Wi-Fi PMP-CG and Smartphone MPV Users [2007-13]...................................................... 223
Figure 179 Smartphones as a Percentage of Handsets Quarterly Sold......................................................... 229
Figure 180 Japan: Smartphone Users and Devices Sold (M) ....................................................................... 231
Figure 181 MPV-Broadcast Population Penetration (2013).......................................................................... 234
Figure 182 WW 3G-MPV and MPV-Broadcast Users [M, 2007-13] ............................................................. 234
Figure 183 DAPAC: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP................................................. 235
TOC - 10                                                                                                      September 2009


Figure 184 Europe: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP................................................. 237
Figure 185 China: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP................................................... 239
Figure 186 US: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP ....................................................... 240
Figure 187 Latin America: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP ...................................... 242
Figure 188 RoW: MPV-Broadcast Users and Penetration in the 12+ POP .................................................... 244
Figure 189 Map of the Regional Wi-Fi MPV Potential .................................................................................. 245
Figure 190 US: The MPV Performance of ATSC-M/H, FLO, 3G and Theirs Combos..................................... 249
Figure 191 Regional Segmentation of the Data Sets .................................................................................... 252
Figure 192 Device-Type Segmentation of the Data Sets............................................................................... 253
Figure 193 Smartphone Owners and Wi-Fi MPV Users................................................................................ 253
Figure 194 Average Handset Replacement Rate........................................................................................... 254
Figure 195 Country Specific Handset Replacement Rates............................................................................ 254
Figure 196 The User- Device Recursions ..................................................................................................... 254
Figure 197 Summary of the Forecasted Entities & Segments ...................................................................... 256
Figure 198 The Forecasting Model Flowchart .............................................................................................. 258
Figure 199 Smartphone Users [07-13] – Regional Breakdown .................................................................... 261
Figure 200 Wi-Fi MPV Handset Users [07-13] – Regional Breakdown......................................................... 261
Figure 201 Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GC Users [07-13] – Regional Breakdown ........................................................ 262
Figure 202 Wi-Fi MPV Users [07-13] – Type Breakdown ............................................................................. 262
Figure 203 Smartphone Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown ...................................................................... 263
Figure 204 Wi-Fi MPV Handsets Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown ......................................................... 263
Figure 205 Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GCs Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown ........................................................ 264
Figure 206 Wi-Fi MPV Devices Sold [07-13] – Type Breakdown.................................................................. 264
Figure 207 Revenue of Smartphone Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown.................................................... 265
Figure 208 Revenue of Wi-Fi MPV Handsets Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown....................................... 265
Figure 209 Revenue of Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GCs Sold [07-13] – Regional Breakdown...................................... 266
Figure 210 Revenue of Wi-Fi MPV Devices Sold [07-13] – Type Breakdown ............................................... 266
Figure 211 WW: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown ......................................... 267
Figure 212 NA: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown ........................................... 267
Figure 213 LA: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown............................................ 268
Figure 214 EU: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown............................................ 268
Figure 215 DAPAC: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown..................................... 269
Figure 216 CN: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown ........................................... 269
Figure 217 RoW: Average Wi-Fi MPV Viewing Time Per User – Type Breakdown ........................................ 270
Figure 218 Average Monthly Wi-Fi MPV Viewing [07-13] – Regional Breakdown ........................................ 270
Figure 219 Wi-Fi MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] - Regional Breakdown............................................ 271
Figure 220 Wi-Fi Handset MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] - Regional Breakdown .............................. 271
Figure 221 Wi-Fi PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ............................. 272
Figure 222 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – World.................................. 272
Figure 223 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – NA....................................... 273
TOC - 11                                                                                                         September 2009


Figure 224 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – LA ....................................... 273
Figure 225 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – EU....................................... 274
Figure 226 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – DAPAC ................................ 274
Figure 227 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – CN....................................... 275
Figure 228 Wi-Fi Handset & PMP-GC MPV Monthly Internet Traffic [07-13] – RoW.................................... 275
Figure 229 Wi-Fi MPV Annual Advertising Revenue [07-13] – US ............................................................... 276
Figure 230 Wi-Fi MPV Annual Advertising Revenue [07-13] – Japan........................................................... 276
Figure 231 Wi-Fi MPV Annual Advertising Revenue [07-13] - Korea ........................................................... 277
Figure 232 Wi-Fi MPV Annual Advertising Revenue [07-13] – UK – Germany - France ............................... 277


                                                          Table Of Tables


Table 1 Smartphone Users [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ............................................................................ 23
Table 2 Wi-Fi MPV Handset Users [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ................................................................. 23
Table 3 Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GC Users [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ................................................................ 23
Table 4 Smartphones Sold [07-13] - Regional Breakdown............................................................................. 23
Table 5 Wi-Fi MPV Handsets Sold [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ................................................................. 24
Table 6 Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GC Sold [07-13] - Regional Breakdown .................................................................. 24
Table 7 Smartphones-Sold Revenue [07-13] - Regional Breakdown.............................................................. 24
Table 8 Wi-Fi MPV Handsets-Sold Revenue [07-13] - Regional Breakdown .................................................. 24
Table 9 Wi-Fi MPV PMP-GC-Sold Revenue [07-13] - Regional Breakdown.................................................... 25
Table 10 Wi-Fi MPV Average Viewing Time [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ................................................... 25
Table 11 Wi-Fi MPV Internet Traffic [07-13] - Regional Breakdown ............................................................... 25
Table 12 Wi-Fi MPV Ad Revenue Potential [07-13] – Major Markets ............................................................. 25
Table 13 The Wireless Technology Video-Quality/Device-Type Matrix ............................................................ 65
Table 14 3G MPV Performance Indices ......................................................................................................... 83
Table 15 3G MPV Service Parameters............................................................................................................ 83
Table 16 Wi-FI MPV Performance Indices..................................................................................................... 84
Table 17 Wi-Fi Service Parameters .............................................................................................................. 85
Table 18 3G Regional Variability of the Wi-Fi Service Parameters ................................................................. 85
Table 19 The 10 MPV-Broadcast Network Groups ......................................................................................... 86
Table 20 Broadcast: Average MPV Performance Indices................................................................................ 87
Table 21 Broadcast: Average Service Parameters ........................................................................................ 87
Table 22 The Milestones of the BBC iPlayer ................................................................................................. 138
Table 23 The Parameters of the Convergent MPV Products......................................................................... 161
Table 24 Typical Parameters of 3G and Convergent 3G MPV ....................................................................... 164
Table 25 The Valuation of the comScore Figures (Dec 2007)....................................................................... 176
Table 26 US MPV Ad-Revenue and One-Seg................................................................................................ 180
Table 27 US-JP: MPV Users (M) [2007-13]................................................................................................. 182
TOC - 12                                                                                                    September 2009


Table 28 US-JP : MPV AVTs (minutes) [2007-13]........................................................................................ 182
Table 29 Total Viewing Hours Per Month (M) .............................................................................................. 183
Table 30 Total Potential Annual Ad Revenue (M, USD)................................................................................. 183
Table 31 Smartphone Vendors and MPV Broadcast AIs............................................................................... 221
Table 32 The Regional Wi-Fi MPV Landscape .............................................................................................. 244
Table 33 The 10 MVP Broadcast Network Groups & Their Combo Potential ................................................ 247

								
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