20042005 Single Family Energy Efficiency Rebate Program

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					Electric / Gas / Water




           2004/2005 Single Family Energy
        Efficiency Rebate Program Evaluation
         * Findings and Recommendations *
                            October CALMAC Meeting
                                October 17, 2007


Contact Info
                                               Contact Info
Amy C. Buege                                   Christopher Dyson
Itron                                          KEMA Inc.
1111 Broadway, Suite 1800                      122 W. Washington Ave., Suite 1000
Oakland, California 94607                      Madison, WI 53703
510-844-2800                                   cdyson@kema.com
amy.buege@itron.com
                                 Lighting



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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Findings

           • Market Characteristics
                      – CF product availability expanded substantially in last few years.
                      – CFL market shares have increased steadily over last decade.
                      – Consumer awareness of CFLs and CF fixtures has increased
                        substantially in past several years.
                                 • 95% of general population aware of CFLs
                                 • Nearly a third of the population aware of CF fixtures
                      – The average CFL purchaser household in CA has 7 CFLs
                        installed (out of 41 sockets).
                      – Nearly 60% of CFL purchasers are storing CFLs.




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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Findings

           • Market Barriers
                      – CFL product quality continues to be concern for
                        suppliers/consumers.
                      – Many barriers to CFL purchase and installation continue to exist,
                        no one barrier is dominant.
                                 •   CFL brightness or price concerns (especially for specialty bulbs).
                                 •   Both CFLs & incandescent in storage / waiting for bulbs to burn out.
                                 •   Grocery store purchasers are price sensitive.
                                 •   Most consumers unaware of specialty bulbs.




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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Findings

           • Program Design
                      – More than 90% of incentives in ‘04/05 were manufacturer
                        buydowns, rest point-of-sale rebates.
                                 • Easier for retailers, more value for consumers
                      – Program incentives tied to lumens versus watt, consistent with
                        national ENERGY STAR program.


           • Program Publicity
                      – Program provided limited direct marketing support to
                        participating lighting suppliers.
                                 • Suppliers preferred more rebate $$ and doing their own advertising.
                                 • Small retailers were less satisfied with this approach.
                      – In-store CFL promotions have an impact on CFL purchases
                                 • One-third of consumers learned about CFLs from in-store displays.

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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Findings

           • Lighting Impacts
                      – Gross impacts calculated based on consumer lighting on-site
                        surveys (with random sample of 2004/2005 CFL purchasers).
                      – Gross realization rate of 64% for kWh and 30% for kW savings.
                                 • 76% installation rate
                                 • Average hours of use estimated at 2.6 hours (vs. 3.5 ex ante)
                                 • Peak usage estimated at 7% (vs. 20% ex ante)
                      – Net to gross ratio calculated based on participating supplier in-
                        depth interviews combined with program tracking data.
                      – Overall NTGR of 62% (i.e., 38% free-ridership)
                                 • Big box and home improvement stores – 66 to 75% free-ridership
                                 • Drug and small hardware stores – 42 to 51% free-ridership
                                 • Grocery and discount stores – 3 to 16% free-ridership
                      – Net realization rate of 47% for kWh and 23% for kW savings.
                      – 2 EULs will be used for lifetime savings estimates.
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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Recommendations

           •          Direct incentives of low-wattage CFLs to channels where they are
                      most needed in order to minimize free-ridership:
                      –          Reduce or eliminate rebates in big box and large DIY stores.
                      –          Increase incentive levels in grocery, drug and discount stores, where
                                 very low free-ridership exists and purchasers are very price-sensitive.
                                 •   Give preferential incentive allocations to these stores that pledge to stock
                                     products year-round.


           •          Increase efforts to raise consumer awareness and acceptance of
                      specialty CFLs by:
                      –          Continuing to rebate specialty CFLs, ES torchieres and hard-wired
                                 fixtures.
                      –          Increasing incentive levels for specialty CFLs.
                      –          Increasing education and awareness efforts that focus on specialty
                                 CFLs.
                      –          Supporting quality testing for specialty CFLs.


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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Recommendations

           •          Increase CFL installations among CFL purchaser households by:
                      –          Limiting the sale of promotional CFLs in multi-packs to keep installation
                                 rate from declining and to capture energy savings impacts sooner.
                      –          Encouraging consumers to replace working incandescent bulbs now
                                 rather than waiting for them to burn out.
                      –          Increasing Program focus on specialty CFLs to expand CFL
                                 installations.


           •          Engage lighting manufacturers in collaborative working group
                      process to find agreement on:
                      –          Uniform ways to provide CFL purchasers with disposal information.
                      –          Uniform ways to described mercury risk on product labeling.
                      –          Strategies for increasing CFL recycling rates.




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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Recommendations

           •              Direct efforts to overcome issues regarding consumer perceptions
                          of CFL quality and performance by:
                      –          Offering consumer education regarding improvements in CFL
                                 technology.
                      –          Ensuring specialty CFLs perform well to ensure acceptance by early
                                 adopters.
                      –          Continuing Program focus on lumen equivalence to help ensure
                                 consumers select appropriate CFL to incandescent wattage.


           •              Consider offering marketing support to smaller retailers, and/or
                          encouraging manufacturers who serve them to provide
                          promotional materials.

           •              Continue to collect and make available to evaluators complete
                          and detailed tracking data for NTG assessments.

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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Recommendations

           •              Continue to emphasize manufacturer buydowns over POS
                          rebates since consumers and the Program get more value per
                          dollar spent.
                      –          POS rebates may be offered for strategic reasons, e.g., recruiting
                                 retailers who are unlikely to participate via the manufacturer buydown.


           •              Continue to calculate free-ridership and spillover using Supplier
                          self-report approach.
                      –          This method generated defensible NTG ratio estimates by retail
                                 channel and product type and was preferable to attempting to
                                 estimate these rates from customer interviews.


           •              Encourage participating suppliers to respond to evaluator
                          requests for surveys and continue to collect and provide current
                          supplier contact information.

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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Lighting Recommendations

           •          Update Program per unit savings parameters to reflect
                      installation rates of 76%, operating hours of 2.6 hours
                      per day and peak usage of 7%.
                      –          Low electricity and demand savings for lighting measures were
                                 realized (64% of gross electricity, 30% of claimed gross demand
                                 savings).
                      –          Gross RR below 100% for most CF bulb categories due to lower
                                 evaluation-estimated operating hours and installation rate as compared
                                 to Program assumptions.




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                                 Non-Lighting



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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Non-Lighting Findings

           • Market Characteristics
                      – California consumers rate themselves as fairly knowledgeable about
                        conservation and EE – down since energy crisis
                      – FYP Awareness continues to be high (52% aware, 37% took action)


           • Program Influence and Participant Satisfaction
                      – Contractors have high level of influence on consumers decision to
                        purchase EE equipment
                                 • 40% reported they were very influential, double that of other influences
                      – Majority of Program participants (consumer and supply-side market
                        actors) were satisfied with Program
                                 • Most satisfied with Program, equipment and contractor
                                 • Least satisfied with rebate turnaround time and bill savings
                      – Appliance dealers and HVAC contractors believe Program needs to
                        improve communications regarding changes

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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Non-Lighting Findings
          • Program Design
                     – CA IOUs doing good job of promoting VSDs in residential CAC
                                 • 2/3 of HVAC contractors report Program has encouraged greater use of VSDs
                                 • Greatest barrier to expanding use of VSDs remains initial cost
                     – HVAC contractors, pool retailers/contractors felt Program needs to
                       increase rebate levels
                                 • Reported multi-speed pump rebate too low to encourage participation
                     – Program has increased POS rebates for some measures
                                 • Reduces program administration costs and expands participation but may increase FR
                                 • Appliance dealers believe Program staff need to do more to enroll them in POS process


          • Program Publicity
                     – Program has recently prioritized incentives over marketing
                                 • Main channels of awareness were utility mass marketing, retail salespeople/POS
                                   materials and contractors
                                 • More customers report getting rebate applications on-line
                     – HVAC contractors and Pool retailers/contractors have low satisfaction
                       with Program marketing
                                 • Retailers miss Program staff visits
                                 • Contractors would like more direct consumer marketing
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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Non-Lighting Findings
     • Program Impacts
                – Onsite audits found 97% of HEER measures were installed and qualifying
                – Non-lighting measures achieved roughly half of goals
                   • 52% of net kWh, 49% of net kW and 46% of net Therm goals
                – Gross RR of 71% for kWh, 68% for kW and 46% for Therms
                – Overall NTGR of 62% for kWh and 65% for Therms
                – Net RR of 52% for kWh, 51% for kW and 37% for Therm savings
                                                                    P ercen t o f S a v in g s G ro ss R R *    N T G R a tio s          N et R R
                                   H E E R M ea su re          R eb a te
                                                                         kW h kW T h m kW h kW T h m           kW h   kW    T h m kW h     kW       Thm
                                                                  $
                           A ir C o nd itio ners                13%    8%     17%    0%   136%   110%   -      67%    67%   - 108% 88%                -
                           H eat P um p s                       1%     1%      1%    0%   100%   100%   -      55%    55%   - 66% 66%                 -
                           Room AC                              1%     1%      1%    0%   100%   100%   -      69%    69%   - 81% 81%                 -
                           Insulatio n                          10%    9%     11%   12%    92%   102% 36%      70%    70% 70% 74% 83%               30%
                           C lo thes W asher                    34%    9%      1%   33%   102%   175% 65%      81%    81% 81% 103% 177%             66%
                           D ishw asher                         10%    6%      1%    8%   100%   100% 100%     41%    41% 41% 51% 51%               51%
                           F urnace - G as                      10%    0%      0%    5%      -     -   92%      -      -  52%   -    -              58%
                           P o o l P um p s                     4%     17%    17%    0%    48%    33%   -      69%    69%   - 41% 28%                 -
                           P ro gram m ab le T herm o stats     5%     34%    30%   36%    46%    46% 10%      49%    49% 49% 27% 28%                6%
                           W ater H eater                       1%     0%      0%    1%   100%   100% 100%     58%    58% 58% 71% 72%               70%
                           W ho le H o use E vap . C o o ler    1%     3%      3%    0%   100%   100%   -      66%    66%   - 75% 76%                 -
                           W ho le H o use F an                 1%     3%      5%    0%   100%   100%   -      71%    71%   - 81% 82%                 -
                           W ind o w s                          11%    9%     14%    5%    51%    51% 53%      47%    47% 47% 29% 29%               31%
                           TOTAL                               100%    100% 100% 100%      71%   68%   46%     62%    62% 65% 52% 51%               37%
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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Non-Lighting Findings
   • Measure Level Impact Findings
              – Central ACs made up 8% and 17% of net kWh and kW savings
                          • High estimated gross savings based on Eng analysis (exceeded estimates by 10-36%)

              – Insulation savings heavily weighted to SCG (78% kWh, 70% Therm savings)
                          • SCG claimed per unit kWh and Therm savings 3.5x and 2.5x larger than other utilities --
                            Billing analysis found 55% of kWh and 23% of Therm savings

              – Clothes Washers accounted for 33% of net Program Therm savings
                          • Engineering models found only 65% of the ex ante Therm savings
                          • Discrete choice analysis estimated 19% FR for clothes washers

              – Pool Pumps made up ~17% of net Program kWh and kW savings and had Gross RR
                of 48% (kWh), 33% (kW) based on Eng and Billing analysis
                          • Gross RR linked to model assumption changes re: Pgm mandated runtime and hp reduction
                          • Ex Ante demand reductions difficult to achieve given size of baseline pumps

              – P-Stats made up > 34% of net Program kWh and Therm savings and had gross and
                net impacts lower than expected
                          • Billing analysis found < ½ expected kWh, 10% Therm savings (models unstable)
                          • DC and SR NTG estimated ~50% Program participants were free-riders

              – Heat pumps, dishwashers, gas furnaces, and water heaters had high levels of
                free-ridership (greater than 42%) based on SR NTG analysis

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Knowledge to Shape Your Future
           Non-Lighting Recommendations
           •          Increase efforts to raise Program awareness, such as:
                      –          Ramp back up retailer support efforts
                      –          Leverage FYP more effectively by tying it to Program measures

           •          Support Pool Pump standards changes:
                      –          Help develop educational campaign to prepare contractors for new standards
                      –          Increase awareness of utility training opportunities for PP contractors
                      –          Increase Rebate Levels for multi-speed pumps

           •          Continue outreach efforts to trade allies to keep them informed
                      –          Consider increasing interactions with HVAC contractors and appliance dealers

           •          Offer increasing incentive levels for VSDs to overcome cost barrier

           •          Continue collecting POS data for further analysis

           •          Include NTG ratio updates as key component in future evaluations
                      –          Ex ante NTG ratios appear to be high given current CPUC NTG definitions

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           • Questions and Comments??




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