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									      International Telecommunication Union




Next Generation Services
    and User Needs

                    Martin Potts
                      Martel
    martin.potts@martel-consulting.ch
Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                 Geneva, 9-10 July 2003
                 The Dangers of Predicting the Future
ITU-T


                 “There is no reason for any individual to have a
                  computer in his home”

                    Ken Olsen, President of DEC (1977)


                 “640K ought to be enough for anybody”
                    Bill Gates



9-10 July 2003          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                                           www.ngni.org
ITU-T

                                  Topic                  Results
                                 Working
                 IST             Groups
                                                     Benchmarking
                                                        Reports                 Collective
                                   Mini-                                       Awareness
                                  Projects           Roadmaps                       &
                  NGNI                                                        Dissemination
                 members
                                                       Standards



                    Input & Feedback

9-10 July 2003             Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                   Roadmap: The Evolution of
ITU-T            Telecommunications Networks

                  What do we want networks to do ?

                  What are the factors that influence how
                   networks evolve ?

                  What trends can be identified ?




9-10 July 2003     Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
ITU-T



                 What do we want networks to do ?




                    Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   5
9-10 July 2003
                 There are many suggestions of what future networks
ITU-T            should do better than they do today (eg. from ETSI, ITU,
                 companies, individuals, ...).
                 There is no common definition of a “Next Generation
                 Network”, but there is some general agreement that
                 they should support the following service models:

                 - support an increasingly networked society:
                   -> communication anywhere, anytime, using any medium
                      that is always online
                   -> seamless interoperability (devices and services are
                      platform-independent: eg. fixed / mobile, and telephone /
                      PDA / PC / Television) …… need for standards




                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   6
9-10 July 2003
                 Accessing the Internet - Today’s options

ITU-T
                                        POTS
                                        ISDN

                                                                          Internet
                                                                          Backbone
                                        xDSL
                                                               Internet
                                                                Access
                                                                Points
                                      Cable TV                  (IAP)           IAP




                                       Optical


                                                                          ISP
                                        Wireless


                    Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?           7
9-10 July 2003
                 - bring services to customers in a way that is:
                   -> in accordance with the trend to separate the roles of the
ITU-T                  various stakeholders involved, eg. Service Providers,
                       Network Providers, Content Providers
                   -> future-proof (the easy incorporation of new services and
                      network technologies)

                 - support levels of QoS
                   (in terms of delay, jitter, loss, reliability, availability)

                 - support security

                 - faster Internet access
                   (where is the bottleneck? … and is the problem really speed
                    or prioritisation?)

                 - be simpler/cheaper to operate/maintain/manage

                            Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   8
9-10 July 2003
ITU-T



                 What are the factors that influence
                 how networks evolve ?




                    Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   9
9-10 July 2003
                                     Evolution Factors
ITU-T                                                User behaviour and
                                                        usage trends
                            General
                          technology
                                                                                     Society
                        advancements


                   Evolution of core                    Visions &                      Economic
                 and access networks                    Scenarios                      trends

                 Evolution of terminals                                               Business



                              Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
                              challenges




                 Individual
                 technical
                               Technology
                               development
                                             Architecture
                                                 and
                                              topology
                                                            Protocols
                                                            evolution   Management   ……..
                 aspects




9-10 July 2003         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                                       Evolution Factors

ITU-T                                                 User behaviour and
                                                         usage trends
                           General
                          technology
                                                                                      Society
                        advancements


                   Evolution of core                     Visions &                      Economic
                 and access networks                     Scenarios                      trends

                 Evolution of terminals                                                Business



                               Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
                               challenges




                 Individual
                 technical
                                Technology
                                development
                                              Architecture
                                                  and
                                               topology
                                                             Protocols
                                                             evolution   Management   ……..
                 aspects




                              Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?              11
9-10 July 2003
                        User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T              - Telecommunications Service Evolution:
                                                                                                                  Telex
                                                                                                                  Broadband data
                                                                                                                  Packet switching
                                                                                                                  Circuit switching
                                                                                                                  Telemetry
                                                                                             Digital networks:
                                                                                             Packet switching
                                                                                                                  Teletext
                                                                                             Circuit switching    Fax
                                                                                             Optical fibre        Internet
                                                         Telex                                                    Web
                                                                         Data:      low speed       high speed    E-mail
                                                                                                                  Telenewspaper
                                                                                                                  Telephony
                 Telegraphy      Telephony                Fax                                                     Teleconference
                                                                                              Videoconference     Videoconference
                                                                                                                  Videotelephony
                                                Radio                                                             Mobile videophone
                                                                                                                  GSM, GPRS, UMTS
                                                                          Mobile telephony
                                                                                                                  Mobile text (SMS)
                                                          Television                  Paging
                                                                                                                  MMS
                                                                                                                  Mobile fax
                                                                         Colour Television                        WAP
                                                                                                                  Mobile data
                                                                                                                  Mobile videotext
                                                                                                                  Paging
                                                                                                                  Stereo hi-fi sound
                                                                                                                  Colour television
                                                                                                                  Stereo television
                                                                                                                  HDTV

                 1847         1877           1920       1930           1960      1975        1984                2003

                                 Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?                                               12
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                 - Increasing use of Internet-based services, but
                   demanding more than just Internet access
                 - Increasing emphasis on mobility and roaming

                 - Increasing use of peer-to-peer applications and group
                    communication

                 - End-user content creation

                 - Less-obtrusive hardware, that exploits the existence of
                   more embedded sensors and communication between
                   embedded devices

                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   13
9-10 July 2003
                     User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T            - Flexibility:
                         - same data to be available on different devices
                         - terminals and services to be transportable between
                            networks
                         - a “one-stop shop” for billing
                 - Services that are integrated, interactive, cost effective
                   (SMS!), easy to use and with filtering features
                   (Ambient Intelligence)

                 - Higher bandwidths (eg. for entertainment services,
                   gaming, …)
                 - QoS (availability, reliability, speed, synchronisation, …)
                 - Security
                          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   14
9-10 July 2003
                             Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T Broadband:
                 - Internet access capability is doubling every 2 years for
                   no increase in real cost to the end user
                 - A downstream throughput of 1 Mbit/s is now common for
                   many residential users – a rate which was unimaginable
                   for most people 10 years ago
                 - A similar increase over the next 10 years is expected
                   (predicted 70% broadband penetration in Western
                   Europe by 2010, up from 10% today)
                 … however, in parallel to wanting more bandwidth, users
                   are wanting to communicate without being physically
                   wired to the network


                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   15
9-10 July 2003
                                Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T Mobility:
                 - Public GSM access networks have been installed to
                   handle the huge demand for mobile telephony and
                   Internet access, but the bandwidth is low compared with
                   that available from a fixed access line
                 - GPRS and UMTS promise improvements, and the
                   addition of data to traditional voice services
                   (convergence ?) which is expected to lead to a range of
                   new services
                 - Ultra Wideband (155Mbit/s)
                 - Ad-hoc networks

                 WLAN is already emerging as a serious contender:

                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   16
9-10 July 2003
                                Broadband and Mobility
ITU-T
                 Mobility:
                 - Developed for the private LAN area, WLAN is a simple and
                   cheap technology that offers a bandwidth that even
                   exceeds what is available on many wireline connections
                 - WLANs are being installed by network operators to satisfy
                   Internet access in public “hot spots”, thereby blurring the
                   boundary between public and private networks
                 - WLANs are expected to generate about 10% of the
                   revenue of 2.5/3G systems (Analysys)




                          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   17
9-10 July 2003
                                                  QoS
                 - The debate on QoS in the Internet has been running for more
ITU-T              than 10 years, but only the “easy” solutions are implemented.
                      3 Overprovisioning (only a solution for the backbone)
                      3 Exploiting the capabilities of the lower layers (MPLS)
                      ? Priorities (DiffServ)
                      ? Explicit signalling (RSVP)
                      ? NSIS
                 - Is there a business model ?
                       - Who is willing to pay for it ?
                       - What services do we expect the Internet to carry ?
                 - The same service used on a different terminal, or transmitted
                   over a different access network, will require different QoS
                   values
                 - Can it be solved with adaptive applications ?

                          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   18
9-10 July 2003
                                Ambient Intelligence
ITU-T
                 - Users are interested in ever more sophisticated devices
                   that inter-communicate, independent of the current
                   network to which they are attached, but the complexity
                   must be hidden

                 - NGNs should provide the basis for the transparent
                   provision and discovery of services that can be made
                   available in an ad-hoc manner locally or remote to a
                   dynamic group of customers. The criteria for service
                   discovery can be the physical or network position
                   (Location-Based Services), and can also exploit User
                   Profiling technology in order to allow for subjective and
                   community oriented discovery criteria


                          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   19
9-10 July 2003
                                           Ambient Intelligence
                 - Elaborate (composite) services can be provided to the user via
ITU-T              an intelligent service location and configuration mechanism.
                   A single query is translated automatically into a range of
                   service location requests which are in turn resolved.
                   This mechanism will further support the need for context
                   computing and stronger focus on the needs of the customer by
                   resolving service related complexity automatically.
                       “Get me to a hotel room”                                  Integrated
                                                                                                                         Hotel
                                                                                    Network
                                                                                               2. Locate/book hotel
                                                  ss
                                              ele
                                           Wir                       Service Discovery
                            Customer                                     Middleware


                       1.Locate customer          3. Locate/Inform                              5. Take Customer
                                                        taxi                                         to hotel         TAXI



                                                                       Ongoing
                                  GPS                                Give Position

                                                                           4. Pickup Customer
                                    Ongoing
                                   Get Position
                                                            TAXI

                                                                     movement           TAXI




                            Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?                                              20
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                 Where is the intelligence nowadays ?

                   - Intelligence at the core is giving way to intelligence
                     at the edge, due to the performance capabilities of
                     network elements
                   - enables new services to be added quickly by
                     “anyone” (Internet Model)




                        Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   21
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                 Gradual transformation from vertically to
                 horizontally integrated networks and services
                   - the traditional “one-operator-does-it-all” is giving
                     way to specialist service providers operating on
                     specific network functionality layers (eg. dark fibre
                     providers, local access providers, content
                     providers, roaming brokers, …)




                        Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   22
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                     ACTORS                        SERVICES                 FUNCTIONS



                              Service                 Applications          End
                              User                                          Usage

                 Network                  Advanced/complementary
                 Customer Service                services                    Service
                                                                             Brokerage /
                          Provider
                                                                             Value-added
                                                                             Service provision
                                                    Basic services


                 Network                                                    Network supply
                 Provider                     Bearer services               and operation


                            Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?          23
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                 For more details of the separation of the roles of
                  Service Providers and Network Providers, and how
                  the interaction can be formalised through SLAs, see:


                          www.cadenus.org




                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   24
9-10 July 2003
                                                                Service Authority
                                         Service
                                         Directory

ITU-T                                                                     Service Types




                                                                                           Service Provider

                                SLA                             Service
                                                                Mediator
                                                                                                     Services

                 Access                                               Service
                                          SLA
                 Mediator                                             Mediator                               Services

                                                                                                                 . AAA
                                                                           SLS                                   . Presentation
                            . AAA
                                                                                                                 . Subscription
                            . Directory/yellow pages
                            . Preferences lists
                            . Services menu                             Resource
                            . User profile                                    Resource
                                                                         Mediator                                         Resource
                            . Terminal types                                                           SLS
                                                                               Mediator
                                                                  (per administrative domain)
                                                                                                                          Mediator
                                                                       (per administrative domain)
                                                                                                                     per administrative domain)



                                      Network Controller                                                                                                            . Traffic engineering
                                      (per technology domain)
                                                                                                                                                                    . Terminal localisation
                                                                     Network Controller
                                                                      (per technology domain)
                                                                                                                                                                    . Terminal capability
                                                                                                                                                                    . Network capability

                                                                                                                                        Network Controller
                                                                                                                                          (per technology domain)
                             Access Network
                                Provider                                  Backbone Network
                                                                              Provider



                                                                                                                                          Next Administrative
                                                                                                                                                   Domain


                                      Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?                                                                                                 25
9-10 July 2003
                    User Behaviour and Usage Trends
ITU-T
                 Service Providers are also “users”. They require:
                    - a fast and open service creation platform
                    - the capability to inform end-users of the services
                      that are available
                    - QoS guarantees from the network regarding
                      availability, throughput, delay, delay variation
                      (jitter), loss
                    - security
                    - the ability to adapt services according to the
                      available network QoS or device type/capabilities

                         Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   26
9-10 July 2003
                                     Evolution Factors

ITU-T                                                 User behaviour and
                                                         usage trends
                           General
                          technology
                                                                                      Society
                        advancements


                   Evolution of core                     Visions &                      Economic
                 and access networks                     Scenarios                      trends

                 Evolution of terminals                                                Business



                               Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
                               challenges




                 Individual
                 technical
                                Technology
                                development
                                              Architecture
                                                  and
                                               topology
                                                             Protocols
                                                             evolution   Management   ……..
                 aspects




                              Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?              27
9-10 July 2003
                                      Wireless Market Trends

ITU-T                 Europe: 2000-2001
                                                              50
                                                              40
                                                                                              12
                                                                                              10
                                                                                                        Total ARPU
                                                                                                        €/Month
                        • Overall ARPU                        30                              8
                                                                                              6
                          decreased by 30%                    20                              4         Data ARPU
                                                                                                        €/Month
                        • Voice ARPU decreasing               10                              2
                          Overstocked market                  0                              0
                                                                                                        %




                                                               20 1
                                                               20 1
                                                               20 1
                                                                 01
                                                               2 9
                                                               20 0
                                                                  0
                        • Data ARPU increased                                                           Data_ARPU/To




                                                            2Q 00
                                                            3Q 0
                                                            4Q 0
                                                            1H 99
                                                            2H 00
                                                            1Q 0
                                                               2
                                                               1
                                                                                                        tal_ARPU
                          by 93%




                                                            2H
                                                                30                                 25
                      Europe: 2002-2005                        25                                 20
                                                                                                            Total ARPU
                                                                                                            €/Month
                        • With voice ARPU                       20
                                                                                                   15
                                                                                                            Data ARPU
                          diminishing, operators                15
                                                                                                   10       €/Month
                                                                10
                          will rely on VAS                         5                               5
                                                                                                            % Data
                          deployment strategies                    0                               0        ARPU/Total
                          in order to keep growth                      2002   2003   2004   2005            ARPU




                     ARPU = Average Revenue Per User   Source: “Mobile@Ovum”, July 2002


                                  Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?                            28
9-10 July 2003
                 Business Models, Societal and Economic/
                                                                    Political Factors
ITU-T




                     The Value Network for Mobile Services

                        Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?     29
9-10 July 2003
                                     Evolution Factors

ITU-T                                                User behaviour and
                                                        usage trends
                            General
                          technology
                                                                                     Society
                        advancements


                   Evolution of core                    Visions &                      Economic
                 and access networks                    Scenarios                      trends

                 Evolution of terminals                                               Business



                              Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges




                 Individual
                 technical
                               Technology
                               development
                                             Architecture
                                                 and
                                              topology
                                                            Protocols
                                                            evolution   Management   ……..
                 aspects




9-10 July 2003          Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                                                                      IP: Some Open Issues
ITU-T
                                             Customer Perspective

                                              Telephony, VoD, IP-VPN
                                          Audio/video, broadcast, e-commerce
                                             WWW, File transfer, Games,
                 Convergence                       On-line shopping,
                                                      E-mail, etc                        Mobility

                                                                               QoS (especially inter-domain)

                                                         IP                  Terminal proliferation

                                                                                   “Always on”

                                                                                             Security
                 Encapsulation /
                                                   Broadband access
                    Integration
                                                                                                      IP over ?
                                              PSTN/ISDN, MPLS, IP-net, etc
                 Encapsulation /
                                           Optical network (DWDM)
                   Convergence


                               Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?                            31
9-10 July 2003
                                     Evolution Factors
ITU-T                                                User behaviour and
                                                        usage trends
                            General
                          technology
                                                                                     Society
                        advancements


                   Evolution of core                    Visions &                      Economic
                 and access networks                    Scenarios                      trends

                 Evolution of terminals                                               Business



                              Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical
                              challenges




                 Individual
                 technical
                               Technology
                               development
                                             Architecture
                                                 and
                                              topology
                                                            Protocols
                                                            evolution   Management   ……..
                 aspects




9-10 July 2003                Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?
                                          Conclusions
ITU-T            Some user behaviour and usage trends have been identified
                 by the EU IST project NGN-Initiative
                 Some key requirements are for:
                        Interoperability
                        Convergence (onto the same terminals)
                        More sophistication (but hiding the complexity)
                        Broadband
                        Mobility
                        Peer-to-peer (user-generated content)
                        QoS
                        Security
                 Service and network separation will encourage innovative
                 services, but requires standards (see CADENUS project)


                        Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   33
9-10 July 2003
ITU-T




                 Workshop on Next Generation Networks: What, When & How?   34
9-10 July 2003

								
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