Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vehicular Emissions and Improve Air Quality in Metro Manila

Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vehicular Emissions & Improve Air Quality in Metro Manila Fr. Dan McNamara December 2003 Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vehicular Emissions & Improve Air Quality in Metro Manila Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Philippines Manila Observatory with support from the US Agency for International Development, US Environmental Protection Agency and US National Renewable Energy Laboratory Better Air Quality 2003 Manila, Philippines 17-19 December 2003 12/12/03 IES Philippines 1 What is Integrated Environmental Strategies? An approach to support and promote the analysis of public health and environmental benefits of integrated strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation and local environmental improvement e.g. local air pollution reduction 12/12/03 IES Philippines 2 Applying IES in the Philippines Focus: transport sector in Metro Manila (70% of pollution come from mobile sources) Objective: - assess the benefits of different mitigation measures with special focus on transport issues, common to both controlling ambient air pollution and greenhouse gases emissions. This project makes use of health and economic impact as parameters in evaluating the benefits of the mitigation measures. 12/12/03 IES Philippines 3 Design and Analysis of Integrated Strategies Alternative Integrated Strategies & Scenarios GHG mitigation objectives Co- & Ancillary Benefits Analysis Pollutant AP Health Effects Valuation of Effects - Economic and social costs Policy Analysis, Refinement Policies, Technologies & Measures Emissions Air quality and exposure GHG emissions AQ mitigation objectives & Dissemination of Results Climate Benefits (GHG Red’ns) 12/12/03 IES Philippines 4 Summary of Scenarios 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2005 2010 2015 Policy Measures Code SPM CO2 SPM CO2 SPM CO2 Business-as Usual BAU x x x x x x Motor Vehicle Inspection System* MVIS x x x x x x CNG Bus Low CNGBL x x x x CNG Bus High CNGBH x x x x CME Jeep Low CMEJL x x x x CME Jeep High CMEJH x x x x Traffic Demand Management TDM x x 2-stroke to 4-stroke tricycles 4STC x x Bikeways Marikina BWMK x x x x Bikeways Metro Manila BWMM x x x x Bus Particulate Trap BPT x Bus Jeep Particulate Trap BJPT x 2nd-hand engine ban for trucks 2HEBAN x Railway expansion RWAY x x Catalytic Converter CATCON x COMBI Combination of Measures x x x x x x 12/12/03 IES Philippines 5 * w/100% CNG buses for 2015 SPM Emissions* - 2015 70 60 gas tricycle diesel bus diesel jeepney diesel truck diesel car gas jeepney gas car t o n s / d a y 50 40 30 20 10 0 B A U M V I S R W A Y B W M K B W M M C A T C O N C O M B I *Exhaust and Idle 12/12/03 Scenarios IES Philippines 6 CO2 Emissions* - 2015 60,000 gas tricycle 50,000 diesel bus diesel jeepney diesel truck diesel car gas jeepney gas car t o n s / d a y 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 B A U M V I S R W A Y B W M K B W M M C O M B I *Exhaust only 12/12/03 Scenarios IES Philippines 7 Air Quality Modeling Scheme Factories, Power Plants Motor Vehicles Background Emissions Health and Economic Costs Dispersion Model 12/12/03 IES Philippines Air Pollution Concentration Map 8 Business-as-Usual (BAU) vs. MVIS 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2002 2005 2015 Predicted Average PM10 Concentrations 45 NCR-All BAU 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 MVIS Kalookan Las Pinas Malabon Mandaluyong Makati Manila Marikina Muntinlupa Navotas Pasay Paranaque Pasig Pateros Quezon City San Juan Taguig Valenzuela 2005 MVIS 2010 MVIS 2015 MVIS • MVIS can offset growth as cleaner vehicles replace old, pollutive units 12/12/03 IES Philippines 9 Future Air Quality in Metro Manila: Worst and Best Scenarios • Worst: Exceedances widen, intensify 12/12/03 IES Philippines 10 • Best: Peak levels less than 60 % of annual standard Health Outcomes Natural Mortality Respiratory Mortality Cardiovascular Mortality Respiratory Hospital Admissions Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Asthma Attacks <15 years old Asthma Attacks =/> 15 years old Bronchitis Episodes < 15 years old Chronic Bronchitis > 25 years old 12/12/03 IES Philippines 11 MORTALITY: Metro Manila Number of Deaths Averted per Policy scenario 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 J AI LW H D IE AY S S EL TR AP BI S K E TC M 4 ST M R O K E TD C M O M BO C -1 O M BO C -2 O M BO -3 BH IS M V N M E G 2005 2 0 10 2 0 15 TOTALS C C 12/12/03 R IES Philippines 12 Asthma Attacks <15 years old: Metro Manila Number of Cases per Policy Scenario 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 V CN IS G CM BH RA E DI J ES ILW H EL AY TR S BI AP TC K E S 4 S T MM RO KE CO TD MB M CO OMB 1 CO O MB -2 O3 2005 2010 2015 TOTALS 12/12/03 M IES Philippines 13 What is the cost of the health damages that can be averted by the different policy scenarios? •Morbidity: Cost of illness method Work Loss Days •Mortality: Benefits Transfer • Values are in 1995 prices • Present Value of Year 2002 Estimates • Using 12% discount rate for 2005, 2010,2015 • Orbeta Study and PhilHealth data 12/12/03 IES Philippines 14 Economic Valuation of the Health Impact per Policy Scenario (PHP) Millions 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 JH RA ILW DI ES A EL YS TR AP S BI K TC E M 4 ST M RO KE MV IS BH TD CO M M BO CO - 1 M BO CO - 2 M BO -3 2005 2 0 10 2 0 15 TOTALS 12/12/03 CN CM E G IES Philippines 15 Summary of Policies Motor Vehicle Inspection System Conversion to 4-stroke tricycles Railways Diesel Particulate Trap Compressed Natural Gas - Buses CocoMethyl Ester - Jeepneys Traffic Demand Management Bikeways 12/12/03 IES Philippines 16 Thank you! 12/12/03 IES Philippines 17