Integrated Environmental Strategies India Air Quality Modeling

Integrated Environmental Strategies India: Air Quality Modeling EPTRI June 2004 PRESENTATION ON INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGIES - INDIA I E S I N D I A CANDIDATE CITY N STUDY AREA MAP FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGIES Legend o I.E. MEDCHAL SHAMEERPET o Industrial Areas District boundary HUDA boundary Municipality Boundary Hyderabad District / MCH boundary Industrial Development Areas o GADDAPOCHARA oBOLLARAM IDA JEEDIMETLA III ELECTRONIC CITY ALWAL IDA PATANCHERU AIE BHEL RC PURAM SERILINGAMPALLY o QUTHBULLAPUR o KUKATPALLY SERILINGAMPALLY IDA JEEDIMETLA I IDA KUKATPALLY IDA BALANAGAR KAPRA E.C KUSHAIGUDA MALKAJGIRI IDA MOULALI IDA CHERLAPALLI CONTONMENT IE SANATHNAGAR I.T.P MADHAPUR MCH AREA IDA MALLAPUR IDA NACHARAM AZAMABAD o UPPAL IDA UPPAL CHANDULAL BARADARI CHANDRAYANGUTTA RAJENDRANAGAR SEIE KATTEDAN L.B.NAGAR AUTONAGAR oMOINABAD o 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Kilometers Centre of Excellence, Spatial Environmental Planning Environment Protection Training & Research Institute, Hyderabad. OVERALL OBJECTIVE Analyzing and Identifying Strategies that Achieve Multiple Economic, Public Health and Environmental Benefits while Improving Local Air Quality and Reducing Green House Gas Emissions (GHG) OBJECTIVES OF I.E.S To quantify AAQ levels. To assess air quality impact on public health and suggest mitigation measures. To build capacity for strategies to reduce GHG emissions. To develop and institutionalize an analytical framework to aid policy makers. To establish inter-disciplinary team with capabilities to conduct integrated analysis. OBJECTIVES OF I.E.S Contd... To build support at local and national level to recommend GHG mitigation strategies . To recommend cost-effective policies and technologies to reduce emissions for sustainable development . PROJECT COMPONENTS Ambient Air Quality • Emissions Inventory • Air Quality Modeling studies • Cost benefit Analysis Transportation studies including Planning Efforts and Issues Health Effects of Air Quality and Economic Valuation of Health Effects Air Emissions Most of air pollution in Hyderabad is due to emissions from transportation sector. Industry is the second largest contributor to air emissions. The major pollutants in the city are particulate matter, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides. TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS Air pollution from vehicular emissions poses the most immediate problem in Hyderabad. Two and three-wheelers comprise over 80% of vehicular population. 80% of two wheelers and all three wheelers have 2-stroke engines, contributing to heavy pollution load. TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS Contd… Adulterated fuels(mixed with kerosene) are another cause of increased pollution. The twin cities witnessed explosive growth in the last decade in human and vehicular population. TSPM Levels in Hyderabad City in CY 2003 Trends in Am bient air quality (SAAQM) of Hyderabad during 2003 - Monthly Average values of Total Suspended Particulate Matter (TSPM) 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 St andar d limit : 200 ug/ M3 Abids Punjagut t a Par adise Char minar Zoo Par k KBRN Par k 03 20 , N JA ,2 B E F 3 00 ,2 R A M 3 00 ,2 PR A 3 00 ,2 Y A M 3 00 03 20 , N JU 03 20 , L JU M o n t h & Ye a r 3 00 ,2 G U A ,2 P SE 3 00 03 20 , T C O 03 20 , V O N 3 00 ,2 C E D Source: APPCB INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS Hyderabad being centrally located in the country attracts lot of trade, commerce and industry. The rapid industrialization and commercialization is resulting in increased levels of air pollution. AIR QUALITY STATUS Air Quality is monitored at 21 locations in the city involving Residential (R), Mixed Zones (M), Commercial (C) and Industrial (I) Areas. Parameters monitored include SO2, NOx, RSPM and TSPM. Air Emissions Inventory Data collected from regional PCB offices in the study area for over 550 industries registered with APPCB. Data collected for each industry includes type of fuel used, quantity of fuel, stack test data, control equipment information, etc. Base year for inventory is CY 2001. Emissions Estimation Stack test data and emissions factors used to estimate PM 10 and GHG emissions from fuel usage. GHG emission factors for India obtained from international council of local environmental initiatives (ICLEI). PM 10 emission factors obtained from a couple of sources: USEPA AP-42 document, and World Bank Study (Rapid Assessment Method, using modified EFs from WHO and EPA). Final Results For Industrial Emissions Inventory (Cy 2001) For Baseline Scenario. TOTAL ANNUAL GHG EMISSIONS FOR STUDY AREA (TONS eCO2): TOTAL ANNUAL PM10 EMISSIONS FOR STUDY AREA (TONS): CO2 : 768, 816 N2O : 4, 085 CH4 : 26, 389 PM1O : 1,187 Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios. Alternative industrial scenarios to reduce PM10 and GHG emissions include: Use of additives in fuel oil in boilers. Particulate controls on all uncontrolled coal, wood and agricultural waste fired boilers. Introducing use of Natural Gas in coal fired boilers. Use of renewable energy (biomass gasification). For each mitigation scenario, emissions for BAU and Mitigation Scenario were calculated for CYs 2011 and 2021. Annual industrial growth rate of 6.5% was assumed (ref: CII). Scenarios selected in consultation with PCRA and NREL. Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios(contd.) Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd… Fuel Additives Scenario Significant reduction (50%) in PM formed during combustion of heavy fuel oil. Reduction in excess air and more efficient heat transfer. This results in reduced fuel consumption (3-4% reduction in fuel), resulting in reduction of GHGs. Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Control Scenario Contd… Controls on all existing uncontrolled solid fuel-fired boilers. Cyclone controls assumed for smaller boilers Baghouses (fabric filters) assumed for larger boilers. Cyclones and baghouses are the most commonly used particulate control equipments in the study area. Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd… Natural Gas Scenario Natural gas pipeline will pass through Hyderabad by 2006-7 (ref. GAIL, India). Preferred fuel of the future: environmentally friendly and economical. As per Hydrocarbon Vision 2025, 15% fuel usage assumed to be NG by 2011 and 20% by 2021. For purposes of this study, only coal fired boilers replaced by NG. Results in significant reduction of PM and GHGs. Development Of Alternative Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Contd… Biomass Gasification Scenario Process uses renewable fuel (wood, agricultural waste, etc.) High conversion efficiency to gaseous fuel. Cost advantage: 1 liter of liquid fuel saved with only 3-4 kgs. Biomass. For this study, assumed 5% industrial biogas usage by 2011 and 10% by 2021. (ref: REP Act). Significant reduction in PM and GHGs. Comparison of Industrial Mitigation Scenarios Scenario PM10 Reduction (tons PM10) (% Reduction) 2011 2021 272 T (12%) 605 T (27%) 509 T (12%) 1128 T (27%) --GHG Reduction (tons eCO2 ) (% Reduction) 2011 2021 18,416 T 34,481T (1.25%) (1.25%) ---33,283 T 88,201T (2.3%) (3.2%) 97,260T 281,062T (6.5%) (10.2%) Fuel Additive Control Natural Gas Biogas 241 T 594 T (10.8%)(14.2%) 184 T 598 T (8.2%) (14.3%) IES-INDIA Analysis Air Quality MODELING Studies IES-INDIA ANALYSIS AIR QUALITY MODELING STUDIES The Air Quality Modeling (AQM) modeling study under the IES-India project was carried out for the Hyderabad Urban Development Area (HUDA) which covers Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad (MCH), surrounding ten Municipalities and outgrowth areas. The primary pollutant of concern Particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter, (PM10), was considered for Air quality modeling. The base year considered for this AQM study was Calendar Year (CY) 2001. Projections were made for BAU-2011 and BAU-2021 Key features of Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) model: The ISC3 model is a steady-state Gaussian plume model, which can be used to assess pollutant concentrations from a wide variety of sources associated with in the study area. The important feature of the model includes handling multiple sources like point, volume, area, and open pit source types. The inputs and options required/available for this model are: Control options • • • Sources data Meteorological data Receptors information After close observation of the study area and past experience in this area, EPTRI has chosen the ISC3 model in order to predict ambient air concentrations for the IES-India study. AQM was carried out for the following Scenarios: 1)Baseline Scenario-2001 2) Business as usual(BAU)-2011 3)BAU-2011 with Effective Bus Transit System 4)BAU-2011 with Combined NG&BG fuel 5) BAU-2011 with Control 6) BAU-2011 with Fuel Additives 7) Business as usual(BAU)-2021 8)BAU-2021 with Effective Bus Transit System 9)BAU-2021 with Combined NG&BG fuel 10) BAU-2021 with Control 11) BAU-2021 with Fuel Additives AQM Results – Baseline, BAU 2011& BAU 2021 Scenarios Fig. 1.5.2(a) Predicted GLCs of PM 10 1200 1000 o n cen tratio n s (u g /m 3 ) 800 600 400 200 0 l i ea pr a ll y r ly ga wa ga al pa nc he Ar Up ka j ll a sa r tke G ad dia pu Ka Na na Al tp am ar am gir pa ru G ha r r l CH ra bu ka M Ku rl i ng nd M ut je Q Ra MCH and surroundings BL - 2001 BAU - 2011 BAU - 2021 Se Pa L ta B nn al C o n c e n tr a tio n s (u g /m 3 ) 1000 1200 M 200 400 600 800 0 Ra je nd ra na ga r r l ga pa pr a i l Na Up Ka M a lk aj gi r wa ur ly ga m Pa ta Gh Ga dd ia pa nc at nn ll y he ke ar ru sa r am Al tb u ll ap al tp ka B L Ar ea CH AQM Results – Baseline, BAU 2011& BAU 2021 Scenarios BL - 2001 MCH and Surroundings Fig. 1.5.2(b) Predicted GLCs of PM10 BAU - 2011 Qu Ku rli n Se BAU - 2021 Air Quality Modeling was carried out for BAU-2011 and BAU-2021 with the four selected alternative mitigation scenarios. The following are the selected four alternative mitigations scenarios. 1) Transportation Sector: i) More effective bus transit system 2) Industrial Sector: i)Combined natural gas (NG) and biogas ( BG) Scenario. ii)Control Scenario iii)Fuel Additive Scenario C o n c e n tr a tio n s (u g /m 3 ) 100 200 150 250 350 300 400 450 50 0 AQM Results – BAU 2011(Mitigation Scenarios) BAU - 2011 Trans - BT MCH and Surroundings Ind - NG+BG Ind - Ctrl Ind - FA Fig. 1.6.1(a) Predicted GLCs of PM10 M Ra CH je nd A r e a ra na L ga B r Na ga Up r pa Ka l M pr a a lk aj gi r i Qu A lw al tb u ll K u a pu Se ka r rlin t pa ll ga m y Pa pa ta ll y nc Gh h e r Ga at u d d ke s ia nn ar ar am AQM Results – BAU 2011(Mitigation Scenarios) Fig. 1.6.1(b) Predicted GLCs of PM 10 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 C o n c e n t ra t io n s ( u g /m 3 ) l jgi ri pr a ea pa l wa l ly ur r ru ll y ar es Ga dd ia n ga ar ll a p tp a Up he Ar Ka l ka ag Na Al pa ka an MC Ma tb u LB ga ta Qu jen Ra MCH and Surroundings BAU - 2011 Trans - BT Ind - NG+BG Ind - Ctrl Ind - FA Se r l in Pa Gh Ku dr a tk m nc na H ra m C o n c e n t ra t io n s ( u g /m 3 ) Ra 200 400 600 800 0 M je CH 1000 1200 AQM Results – BAU 2021(Mitigation Scenarios) BAU-2021 Trans-BT MCH and Surroundings Ind-NG+BG Ind-Ctrl Ind-FA Fig. 1.6.2(a) Predicted GLCs of PM 10 nd Ar e ra a L nag B a Na r ga Up r pa Ka l M p ra al ka jg Al ir i Qu w tb u a l Ku ll ap Se k a u r r l i tp a ng a l ly Pa m p t a all n y G ch e G h a ru a d t ke dia sa nn r ar am AQM Results – BAU 2021(Mitigation Scenarios) Fig. 1.6.2(b) Predicted GLCs of PM 10 1200 C o n cen tratio n s (u g /m 3 ) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 pr a ea ir i l l ly r pa ll y r ru r sa tke G ad dia wa ga pa Up Ka ka Na ll a tp he Ar na CH am ka nc bu M Ku ut rli ng nd M Pa ta je Q Ra MCH and Surroundings BAU-2021 Trans-BT Ind-NG+BG Ind-Ctrl Ind-FA Se G L ha ra B nn al ar Al am r ga pu jg al Conclusions Derived From AQ Modeling: Comparing all the scenarios, the maximum concentrations are obtained in MCH area. This may be due to movement of high vehicular population. The projected avg. concentrations during BAU-2021 are very high. it is observed that Effective Bus Transit mitigation scenario is the most effective scenario, as compared to other scenarios, in reducing the particulate and GHG emissions. With Bus Transit scenario, ambient pollutant concentrations are down to about 1/3 of corresponding BAU levels. For BAU-2021, Patancheru and Rajendranagar would be the highly polluted areas (after MCH), because of their vicinity to the air polluting industries. Industrial mitigation scenarios are not significant in MCH area. But they are significant in reduction of GLCs in some the industrial areas, such as Rajendranagar, Gaddiannaram, Patancheru, Qutbullapur etc. Limitations of AQ Modeling Study Emissions information pertaining to 23 industries that had emissions of 10 tons per year or greater in 2001 were selected as point sources and the pollution loads from the remaining industries were considered as area sources. There are no large power generation plants within the study area, therefore long term predictions of power plant emissions are not considered in the study. Limitations of AQ Modeling Study (contd.) The domestic (household energy) fuel consumption and its emission load (not included) is considered to be insignificant when compared to the industrial or vehicular releases, as the main domestic fuel is Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) and/or kerosene. Emissions from sources such as road dust, open burning and emissions from residential and commercial establishments have not been included. Scope of Work For Transportation Study The Objective of the study comprises of the following components Baseline scenario (CY 2001) study. Part-I: Scenarios for most effective bus transit service (bus lanes, better bus-stops, better road surfaces on trunk routes) Part-II: Technology Training measure related to 2-stroke vehicles Part-III: Traffic Management Measures to improve Traffic flow (flyovers, traffic signals, footpaths, etc.) Part IV: Multi-modal Transport System(rail) Diagram of Transportation Assessment Process Current Conditions Emissions Factors from Pune Vehicle fleet Baseline Assumptions Travel Demand Forecasting VMT Vehicle type for baseline & alternate scenarios International Vehicle Emissions Model Emissions for Baseline and Policy Scenarios Policy Scenarios for Components 1&2 Adjusted Emissions Factors for Component 3 TDF Transportation Analysis Results for Transportation Baseline Scenario (CY 2001) Total Annual GHG Emissions for Study Area (tons eCO2) CO2: 844,869 N2O: 2,263 CH4: 185,110 Total Annual PM10 Emissions for Study Area (tons) PM10: 1,825 Selected Transportation Mitigation Scenario Results More Effective Bus Transit Scenario: % Reduction in Emissions: 2011 2021 PM10: 35% 55% CO2 13% 34% N2O 30% CH4 38% 59% Selected Transportation Mitigation Scenario Results Multi-Modal Transport System (Light Rail) % Reduction in Emissions: 2011 2021 PM10: 2.5% 4.6% CO2 2.14% 10.21% N2O 30 % CH4 1.7% 3.49% Damage Function Approach For Health Effects Analysis Pollutant Emissions Background Concentrations Population Exposed Baseline Risk Ambient Concentrations Human Exposure Health Effects Social Benefits Exposure-Response Function Social Value Atmospheric models Limitations of IES-India Study Only secondary emissions data was used. Emissions factors not customized for local conditions. Emissions from sources such as road dust, open burning, residential and commercial establishments were not included. Future Improvements to IESIndia Study Include all significant sources, including road dust, open burning,etc. Use primary data, if possible. Use better emission factors, if available. Include more transportation mitigation scenarios for modeling/health studies. Cost-Benefit Analysis Costs for implementation of each industrial and transportation scenario estimated for CYs 2011 and 2021. Health effects and economic evaluation of health effects estimated by modeling for each mitigation scenario. GHG reduction benefits also considered. Implementation costs for each mitigation scenario have been compared with benefits obtained for comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. IES METHODOLOGY ALTERNATIVE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES & SCENARIOS GHG MITIGATION OBJECTIVES Co- & ANCILLARY BENEFITS ANALYSIS AIR POLLUTION POLLUTANT EMISSIONS & - Air quality & exposure -GHG emissions POLICY ANALYSIS REFINEMENT & VALUATION OF HEALTH EFFECTS - Economic & Social costs DESSEMINATION OF RESULTS POLICIES, TECHNOLOGIES & HEALTH EFFECTS CLIMATE BENEFITS (GHG REDUCTIONS) AQ MITIGATION OBJECTIVES MEASURES -Reports -Workshops PARTNERS IN THE STUDY Sponsors- USAID and USEPA Technical Contractor- NREL Overall coordination, AAQ analysis and Cost /Benefit analysis–EPTRI Health Effects Analysis and Economic valuation -IHS. Transportation Planning - RITES THANK YOU