Workplan Proposal for the Chile Co controls Benefits Analysis Project

Workplan Proposal for the Chile Co-controls Benefits Analysis Project July 1999 Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial y de Sistemas Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Chile´s Workplan Proposal for Co-controls Benefits Analysis Project 1. INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES P ROJECT TEAM SCOPE OF THE PROPOSED WORK Types of benefits Pollutants Considered Time Horizon Geographic Considerations 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 2. ACTIVITIES AND METHODOLOGY MODULE I: GHG MITIGATION S CENARIO D EVELOPMENT Task I.1 Establishment of the baseline Task I.2 Identification of abating measures Transportation sector measures Electric Energy efficiency measures Industrial sector measures Task I.3 Analysis of mitigation measures Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 8 1 Task I.4 Construction of a draft scenario Task I.5 Compatibilization with scenarios proposed by Team A Products MODULE II: AMBIENT AIR P OLLUTION Task II.1 Gather and Validate Key Data Elements Task II.2 Develop Draft Ambient Air Quality Scenarios Task II.3 Ozone Sensitivity to Reductions in VOC and NOx Emissions. Task II.4 PM10 and PM2.5 changes associated with emission reductions. Task II.5 Rollback techniques for CO, HC, SO2 and NOx. Task II.6 Develop Final AAQ Scenarios Urban and Rural Products MODULE III: H EALTH EFFECTS ESTIMATION Task III.1 Definition of model to be used Task III.2 Review and Refine C-R Relationships Task III.3 Estimate Excess Health Effects for Control scenarios Task III.4 Extrapolate Results to Country-wide Scale Products MODULE IV E CONOMIC VALUATION AND B ENEFIT ANALYSIS Task IV.1 Collect effects valuation for developing countries Task IV.2 Develop Unit Values for Health Effects Task IV.3 Age specific analyses Task IV.4 Economic valuation of social damages Products MODULE V ANALYSIS OF B ENEFITS REPORTS AND W ORKSHOPS In-country Final Workshops to Disseminate Results 3. 4. PROPOSAL FOR PHASE II ACTIVITIES PROJECT SCHEDULE 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 Error! Bookmark not defined. 16 16 16 17 17 17 19 Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 2 1. Introduction This document describes the workplan proposed by the Industrial and Systems Engineering Department of the Catholic University of Chile for the analysis of the Co-control benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures. These co-benefits arise from mitigation measures which are directed at reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, and that also reduce emissions of other pollutants which have local deleterious effects, such as particulate matter, NOx, SOx, VOCs, etc. As a result of the two meetings we had with people from EPA, NREL and Abt Associates, we understand that the work will be carried out in close collaboration with them, in terms of technical assistance and in terms of discussing the results and refining the methodologies. We agree with this arrangement, and believe it is the only way to conduct a productive collaboration. We envision this work as an opportunity to collaborate and benefit mutually from this continuous collaboration. Objectives The general objective of this study is to assess the most important co-control benefits of controls of GHG The specific objectives of the proposed study are: 1. Assess and quantify the air pollution benefits of energy technologies identified as priorities for greenhouse gas mitigation. 2. Consolidate the capacity to conduct economic evaluation and risk assessments 3. Demonstrate that the results of this analysis can enhance support for implementation of “win-win” measures and technologies to reduce greenhouse gas mitigation, including implementation of technology cooperation agreements. Project Team The composition of the team of the Catholic University is as follows: • Project Director • Project Coordinator • GHG mitigation scenarios Luis Cifuentes Felipe Soto Felipe Soto, Ariel Mosnaim, Martin Guiloff Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 3 • Air Quality Modeling • Health effects analysis • Economic valuation • Benefit Analysis Hector Jorquera, Patricio Dannitz Luis Cifuentes, Jeanette Vega, Martin Guiloff Luis Cifuentes Luis Cifuentes & Juan Pablo Montero Besides these principal investigators, several graduate students who are currently working on related topics will participate in the project. Scope of the proposed work Due to the limited amount of time and resources, the project has to be limited in several senses: Types of benefits Although there are several cobenefits associated to the reduction of GHGs emissions (health, visibility, materials damage, etc), we will concentrate our attention on the health benefits, because of several reasons: • We believe, and our previous analyses has shown, that they are the biggest social benefit among all possible benefits, • We have extensive experience in the estimation of health effects, and in the valuation of the social damages associated with them • Given the short time frame, we believe it is the best choice in terms of successfully conducting a complete analysis for one issue. Pollutants Considered In terms of the pollutants being considered, based on our previous work, we anticipate we will consider the effects associated with the following ambient air pollutants: • • • • PM2.5 and PM10 CO Ozone SO2 Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 4 These pollutants have been shown in the literature to be associated to several health effects. Our previous work 1 has shown that both PM2.5 and CO are associated with premature mortality in Santiago, and that the coarse fraction of PM (between 2.5 and 10 microns) does not have any effect, at least on premature mortality. However, given the wide availability of PM10 concentration-response function, we will also analyze it. These secondary pollutants require consideration of the emissions of the following primary pollutants: • • • • • SOx NOx VOC CO Primary particulate matter. Time Horizon The analysis of measures to reduce GHGs should have a long time horizon. However, for our analysis, the interaction with measures to reduce local air pollution is crucial, so the time horizon cannot be so long. Considering that the horizon for the Decontamination Plan for the Metropolitan Region is up to the year 2011, we will use a time horizon up to 2020, with milestones at 2011 and 2020. This will let us consider a period with high interaction with the Plan, and another without interaction. Geographic Considerations The focus of our analysis will be the Metropolitan Region (Santiago and its surroundings). The main reason behind this is data availability, in terms of incidence rates, demographic, ambient air pollution levels, meteorology and emissions data. We will also conduct an analysis for the rest of the country based on the main cities for which there is some ambient air pollution data. 2. Activities and Methodology We have divided the project into five major modules. A timeline is presented at the end of this workplan that details the proposed project schedule. The modules are: • Module I: GHG Mitigation Scenarios Development 1 Cifuentes, L., Vega, J., et al. (1999). Daily mortality by cause and socio-economic status in Santiago, Chile, 3rd Colloquium on Particulate Matter and Human Health, Durham, NC, USA, 6-8 June 1999. Cifuentes, L. (1996). Efectos en la Salud de la Contaminación Atmosférica por Material Particulado: Evidencia de Estudios Recientes. Apuntes de Ingeniería, Vol. 19, N°2, 47-64. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 5 • • • • Module II: Ambient Air Pollution Models Module III: Health Effects Estimation Module IV: Economic Valuation Module V: Benefits Analysis Next we describe each module and the tasks that compose them. Module I: GHG Mitigation Scenario Development Another team (team A, which has not been defined yet) will take care of Element A of the global project, the definition of the abatement scenarios. Because that team has not been set up yet (End of July 1999) there is concern that our project can be delayed due to delays in this task, which is out of our control. In order to avoid as much as possible the reliance on the results of Team A, we will analyze independently several mitigation measures which we believe are serious candidates to be included in any mitigation scenario. Some of us have been working on the development of cost curves for GHG control in the energy sector 2. We will use the measures identified on that work as a starting point. Using this approach, we can easily analyze any given scenario once it is defined. The tasks considered in this module are: Task I.1 Establishment of the baseline Task I.2 Identification of measures Task I.3 Analysis of mitigation measures Task I.4 Construction of a draft scenario Task I.5 Compatibilization with scenarios proposed by Team A (if they become available) We describe each subtask in detail in the following sections. Task I.1 Establishment of the baseline It is necessary to define the baseline. For the metropolitan region, the baseline will be given by the application of the Decontamination Plan (PPDA). For other regions of the country, it will be the normal scenarios, with no “Estimación de Potenciles de Reducción de Emisiones y Capturas de CO2 en Chile", Ariel Mosnaim P y David Noe Sch., Documento de Trabajo Mayo 1999 2 Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 6 abatement measures unless there are clear indications that such measures will be taken in the future. We will rely on the work already performed by PRIEN3 to estimate the baseline emissions. Task I.2 Identification of abating measures The first step in the analysis will be the identification of the possible mitigation measures. For this task we will rely on our previous work, on information from PRIEN, and on international experiences. The measures will be classified according to their sector into: Transportation sector measures These measures will change or reduce the consumption of fuels on the transportation sector. We will estimate the change in consumption of fuel by each sector (public transport, freight transport, private automobiles, etc.), and quantify the change in emissions using emission factors. This task will be based on a recently finished work conducted for Conama RM 4, in which we had to model the emissions of the transportation sector. Electric Energy efficiency measures These measures reduce the electricity consumption of any sector. We will treat them separately since they result in a reduction of electric consumption and production. In Chile, more than 50% of the electric power is generated by hydroelectric plants. However, peak power, which is the one affected by consumption reduction, is generated by thermal (carbon, diesel and natural gas) plants. Some of these plants are located in or closer to Santiago. We will follow the following steps: • • • Estimate the change in generation for each type of plant, based on the dispatch algorithm of the Central Interconnected System Estimate the change in emissions using emissions factor (obtained from the Environmental Impact Statements of the newer plants, or literature for the older plants) Estimate the change in ambient concentrations for each plant (since these generally represent huge point sources, a detailed analysis may be warranted) 3 “Mitigación de gases de Efecto Invernadero, Chile 1994-2020 “, Programa de Investigaciones en Energía (PRIEN), Universidad de Chile, Marzo 1999 4 The two studies are: Evaluación Económica del “Estudio de Seguimiento del Plan Piloto de Utilización de Combustibles Gaseosos en Buses de La Región Metropolitana”, and Estudio “Propuestas de Diseño de los Instrumentos de Gestión Ambiental Tendientes a Reducir las Emisiones de la Actividad del Transporte y Análisis de sus Impactos Económicos, Sociales y de Efectividad en la Reducción de Emisiones”, CONAMA Región Metropolitana Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 7 Industrial sector measures These are the most complicated measures, since they involve heterogeneous processes. Once they are identified, we will try to estimate the changes using industrial emission factors. Task I.3 Analysis of mitigation measures For each of the measures identified in the previous task, we will estimate its GHG mitigation potential (the actual objective of the measure) and the reduction in the primary pollutants of interest. Task I.4 Construction of a draft scenario Once the main measures are identified, we will construct a draft mitigation scenario considering goals to be met. This will probably be a parametric scenario, with all the measures included to satisfy a given level of abatement. This will be an exercise that would us let us estimate the potential of emissions reductions of primary pollutants for a given reduction in GHGs. However, we won’t claim it is a final nor optimal scenario, since it would be constructed from a combination of the measures available, with just some consideration of cost minimization. Task I.5 Compatibilization with scenarios proposed by Team A If and when the real scenarios (developed by Team A) become available, we will compatibilize them with our measures. The main problem may occur if these scenarios include measures that we have not analyzed, in which case we will need to study them. If the proposed scenario includes only measures that we have analyzed, then it would be a simple matter of putting them together according to the scenarios. Products • • • • A baseline GHG scenario for RM and the rest of Chile Measures for reducing GHGs, with its reduction in GHGs and primary pollutants estimated A draft mitigation scenario A compatibilized scenario with Team A (if available) Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 8 Module II: Ambient Air Pollution The main outcome of this task will be estimates of reductions in ambient air pollution levels of each of the primary and secondary pollutants considered, associated to the reductions in emissions of primary pollutants which, in turn, are caused by the different specific CO2 abatement measures to be considered in Module I. This module is composed of the following tasks: Task II.1 Gather and Validate Key Data Elements The major effort in this key task will be devoted to identifying sources for the required data and information, methods to perform quality checks on the database, and methods to prepare the necessary future estimates. Before conducting the analysis it is necessary to gather, analyze and validate the required data. The data needed are: data on current air quality levels these data are available from the SESMA/MACAM monitoring network for the criteria pollutants. data on current emissions data on meteorology data on fuel consumption Conama has emissions inventories which had just been updated 5 these data are available from the Air Quality Division at CONAMA RM they are available from the “Superintendencia de Electricidad y Combustible” (SEC) A check on the quality of the air pollution database will be conducted by looking at correlations and scatter plots among simultaneous measurements taken at the several monitoring stations, for each pollutant considered. Since simultaneous air quality is subject to the same meteorological and emission patterns, the relationships ought to be linear and possess relatively low dispersion. In this manner, suspicious records may be recoded and not considered in the final analyses. The emission inventories will be validated by computing ambient concentration ratios (i.e. PM10/NOx, HC/NOx, CO/NOx, SO2/NOx, etc.) to determine if the relative proportions of components of the emissions inventory are consistent. For instance, early to midmorning measurements of those ratios might identify sources of error in the emission inventories. 5 Emissions Inventory Update for the Metropolitan Region 1998, Centro Nacional del Medio Ambiente, Report for Conama, March 1999. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 9 Task II.2 Develop Draft Ambient Air Quality Scenarios We will develop draft scenarios that will help us identify the main reductions in air pollutants, and the size of those reductions. These draft scenarios will be developed for Santiago, and will be constructed from the results gotten in Module I. Essentially, a set of CO2 abatement initiatives will result in a reduction of CO2 emissions and a concomitant reduction in primary pollutant emissions, which will be used as inputs to construct scenarios for each pollutant targeted. These scenarios will be circulated to both in-country and international experts for review. Following the comment period, these scenarios may be revised to reflect the reviewer’s comments and final air quality scenarios adopted. Task II.3 Ozone Sensitivity to Reductions in VOC and NOx Emissions. This policy-related air quality issue has been the subject of extensive research, with the aim of estimating changes in ozone impacts related to future scenarios. The complexity comes from the non-linear relationships associated to the photochemical smog production, the spatial distribution of ozone impacts along typical air parcel trajectories (existence of NOx- and VOC-limited ozone impacts), and the uncertainties in emission inventories, particularly biogenic VOC emissions. It is estimated that there is not enough in-country information to develop a comprehensive photochemical air quality simulation modeling (PAQSM), like using EPA’s UAMIV in Santiago, for instance. Furthermore, no reliable measurements on speciated non-methane hydrocarbon compounds are available for Santiago, so approaches like EPA’s OZIPM model cannot be used either. Therefore, simpler strategies have to be used to estimate changes in ozone levels associated to emission reduction scenarios. These strategies are based on measurements at one or more monitoring sites, and so are called “Observation-Driven Methods” (ODMs). The likely candidates to be used as the final tool are: i) ii) iii) iv) The correlation between ozone and NOy or Noz (e.g. Trainer et al, 1993). The Integrated Empirical Rate (IER) Model of Johnson (1984), as revised by Blanchard et al (1994) and Chang et al (1995) (also called the Smog Production (SP) algorithms). The observation-based model (OBM) of Cardelino and Chameides (1995). The use of indicator species and ratios (Sillman et al, 1990; Milford et al, 1994; Watkins et al, 1995; Jacob et al., 1995). The data requirements in the aforementioned tools will be contrasted with the available data in Santiago (emissions, meteorology, air quality monitoring) to select the one with the best potential for use. In principle, the option (II), IER/SP algorithms seem to be the preferred option, as recent results applied on different metropolitan areas have shown sensible results (Chang et al, 1997; Pryor, 1998). Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 10 Task II.4 PM10 and PM2.5 changes associated with emission reductions. This air quality issue is the subject of intensive ongoing research; for instance, the importance of the aerosol chemistry has been recognized as one of the key elements in the production and persistence of aerosols in the troposphere. A substantial fraction of the total PM2.5 load in the atmosphere comes from gas-to-particle conversion by physicochemical mechanisms (Meng et al, 1997), the so-called “secondary aerosol”, as distinguished from the primary aerosol directly released by transportation and industrial sources (the resuspended surface dusts generally belong to the coarse fraction with sizes between 2.5 and 10 µm). . Therefore, understanding the complexity of secondary aerosols is a demanding yet necessary task to perform. It is estimated that the current information gathered in-country (Artaxo, 1998) is sufficient to estimate the proportion of PM2.5 that comes from primary and secondary aerosols in Santiago. For other large cities of Chile, it is likely that the current PM2.5 apportionment made at Santiago cannot be extrapolated, either because the cities are on the coast (and so posses a strong marine aerosol background) or due to the extensive domestic use of wood stoves (case of cities on the Southern part of the country). Hence, it seems that the analyses can only be conducted for Santiago. To construct emission-concentration relationships for PM10 and PM2.5, a linear regression of these quantities against the concentrations of criteria pollutants provides a useful extrapolation tool, because this strategy is equivalent to applying an Eulerian Box model to a given region (Zannetti, 1990). For instance, in the case of the PM10 model, the regression coefficient for CO stands for the ratio of PM10 to CO emissions at Santiago, and so this part of the regression model represents the effect of transport upon PM10 impacts. Since future emissions of primary pollutants can be extrapolated (using, for instance, forecasts of fuel compsumption and estimates of future emission factors), the future concentration distributions and emissions can be used to estimate what would be the likely concentrations of PM10 at the different monitor stations where these models can be constructed. The same procedure can be conducted for PM2.5, taking care of the secondary contribution (nitrates and sulphates). Since an approximate source apportionment already exists (Artaxo, 1998), the regression models can be verified by comparing these two methodologies. Task II.5 Rollback techniques for CO, HC, SO2 and NOx. For these primary pollutants there is enough information about fuel consumption, so reliable estimates of annual emissions of all these primary pollutants can be regressed against the historical concentrations measured at the different monitor stations. In this fashion, a rollback model for each monitor site will provide an extrapolation tool. This tool will provide both future estimates of concentration distribution and inputs for both the ozone and PM10 and PM2.5 quantitative models developed in the previous two sections. The use of these three combined tools will produce a consistent methodology, capable of being used in other parts of the country as new monitoring campaigns are started by the authorities, so a permanent know-how is being build up in-country. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 11 Task II.6 Develop Final AAQ Scenarios Urban and Rural To develop these final AAQ scenarios it will be necessary to have the results for the previous activity. The final results from this activity should be scenarios in which both the changes in air pollution levels and the absolute ambient levels, will be estimated. Products • • • A validation of the air quality database and the emissions inventory for Santiago. A prediction of future air quality levels in Santiago for PM10, PM2.5, SO2, CO and O3 Models for projecting air quality levels under different scenarios of economic growth and CO abatement policies • Draft air quality scenarios based on the baseline and GHG mitigation scenarios REFERENCES Module 2 1) Blanchard, C.L. et al (1995), Application of smog production (SP) algorithms to the TNRCC COAST data, in 88th Annual Air & Waste Management Association Meeting, San Antonio, TX, Paper TP15P.04. 2) Cardelino, C.A. and Chameides, W.L. (1995), An observation-based model for analyzing ozone precursor relationships in the urban atmosphere, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 45, 161-180. 3) Chang, T.Y. and Suzio, M. (1995), Assessing ozone-precursor relationships based on smog production model and ambient data, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 45, 20-28. 4) Chang, T.Y., Chock, D.P., Nance, B.I. and Winkler, S.L. (1997), A photochemical extent parameter to aid ozone air quality management, Atmospheric Environment, 31, 2787-2794. 5) Johnson, G.M. (1994), A simple model for predicting the ozone concentration of ambient air, in Proceedings of the 8th International Clean Air Conference, Melbourne, Australia, pp. 715-731. 6) Meng, Z., Dadub, B. And Seinfeld, J.H. (1997) Chemical coupling between atmospheric ozone and particulate matter, Science, 227, 116-119. 7) Milford, J.B. et al (1994), NOY as an indicator of the sensitivity of ozone to ROG and NOX emissions, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99D, 3533-3542. 8) Pryor, S.C. (1998) A Case of Emission Changes and Ozone Responses, Atmospheric Environment. 32(2): 123-131. 9) Silman, S. et al, The sensitivity of ozone to nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in regional ozone episodes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 95, 1837-1851. 10) Trainer, M. et al, Correlations of ozone with NOY in photochemically aged air, Journal of Geophysical Research, 98, 2917-2925. 11) Zannetti, P.(1990) Air Pollution Modelling – Theories, Computational Methods and Available Software, Computational Mechanics, Southampton, New York. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 12 Module III: Health Effects Estimation The main outcome of this module will be estimates of the changes in health effects resulting from reductions in ambient pollution levels of each of the secondary pollutants. The methodology to be used in the damage function approach. We have extensive experience in the application of this method to the estimation of the benefits from air pollution abatement. 6 , and we have just applied this method to the cost benefit analysis of the introduction of CNG buses in Santiago. The effects considered are all acute effects (daily effects) plus incidence of chronic bronquitis. We have currently a model to estimate the excess effects, with no geographic differentiation, and we are working on the inclusion of a threshold for the daily effects. The tasks included in this module are: Task III.1 Definition of model to be used Task III.2 Review and Refine C-R Relationships Task III.3 Estimate Excess Health Effects for Control scenarios Task III.4 Extrapolate Results to Country-wide Scale Task III.1 Definition of model to be used The first task of this module would be to decide whether to use our own model or to use the CAPMS model developed by Abt Assoc. for EPA. The advantage of using and expanding our own model is that, since we developed it, it is quite flexible and customizable for us. From what we understand, it has basically the same capabilities of CAPMS, including quantitative uncertainty propagation using Montecarlo simulation. However, CAPMS may present much more capabilities in terms of geographical resolution. It is feasible that we would end up using a combination of both. If that happens, we will require training of one of our staff in the use of the model. 6 We have conducted a benefit analysis for the implementation of the new proposed standards for the polutants included in Res 1215/78 (PM, SO2, NO2, Ozone) for Conama, and one of us did his Ph.D. dissertation on the topic. Cifuentes, L. & Lave, L.B. “Economic valuation of air pollution abatement”, Annual Review of Energy and the Enviroment, 18:319 -342, 1993. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 13 Task III.2 Review and Refine C-R Relationships Some of us have been working on the association of air pollution and mortality. Our previous analysis shows that mortality can account for more than 50% of the social damages associated to health effects, therefore it is important to consider other endpoints. In this activity we would like to collaborate with the international team conducting a meta-analysis of the available C-R functions for different endpoints in different developing countries. Such analysis may produce functions that are more appropriate to use in the non Annex-I country than the extrapolation of Annex-I (especially USA) functions. Also, two of us (Cifuentes and Vega) continue to work on the association of air pollution with mortality in the Metropolitan Region, and are presenting a proposal for studying Hospital Admissions. The results from that study will be readily available to be used in refining the C-R functions for Santiago. This task include two subtask: • • Extrapolate C-R to Chile Consideration of thresholds in the C-R Task III.3 Estimate Excess Health Effects for Control scenarios The changes in incidence for the following health effects will be estimated: • • • • • • • • • • Chronic (long-term exposure) adult mortality Acute (short-term exposure) premature mortality*, ** Infant premature mortality* Intrauterine fetal death* Emergency Room Visit for Children ** Development of chronic respiratory disease Hospital admissions*, ** Acute respiratory disease* Worker Productivity and/or work loss days* Aggravation of existing asthma (Asthma attacks) The health effects marked with* have available concentration/response relationships from epidemiological studies conducted in developing countries, and the ones marked with ** have relationships developed for Santiago, Chile. Relationships for the other effects are only available from developed countries, and will be included with greater uncertainty. This task will produce estimates of the incidences of these health effects under anticipated future conditions without a climate change policy, as well as the numbers of incidences that will be reduced if a specific climate change mitigation policy is implemented. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 14 For the estimation of these effects we will rely on our own model, which was developed for the analysis of the social benefits of the new proposed ambient air quality standards, developed for Conama, and on the CAPMS model developed by Abt Assoc. for EPA. It is anticipated that we will require training of one of our staff in the use of the model. We still would like to use and update our own model, since it has the capabilities we need, and provides the flexibility of the Analytica modeling environment. The main advantage of the CAPMS model may be its capability to deal with small geographic resolutions, and that the threshold consideration is already built-in. This may be needed for ozone effects estimation. Task III.4 Extrapolate Results to Country-wide Scale Based on the methodology and procedures developed in the previous section, the health effects analysis results for the urban scale will be extrapolated to the countrywide scale. This analysis will be inherently more approximate than the urban-scale analysis due to a paucity of data. Nevertheless, the countrywide analysis will be useful in investigating the potential of GHG mitigation strategies, as they are applied nationally, to affect positive changes in human health. The extent of the analysis will be limited by the availability of data, both on air pollution levels and on incidence of base health effects. Products • • • Methodologies for health effects analysis C-R relationships adapted to Chilean conditions or developing-country data. Estimation of the number of excess health effects for each control scenario. Module IV Economic Valuation and Benefit Analysis The final step of the analysis is the economic valuation of the health effects and the analysis of the potential benefits. This is required step, since in Chile major regulations need to have a cost benefit analysis. The social benefits results from the difference in damages from the mitigation scenarios and the base case. This module includes the following tasks: Task IV.1 Collect effects valuation for developing countries Task IV.2 Develop Unit Values for Health Effects Task IV.3 Economic valuation of social damages Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 15 Task IV.1 Collect effects valuation for developing countries The first step would be a compilation of unit values for effects in developing countries. There is a growing number of studies in developing countries that need to be checked. Task IV.2 Develop Unit Values for Health Effects The most critical step on the valuation process is the development of the unit values for each effect. Previous analyses done by Conama in Chile (for example, the evaluation of the social benefits of the Decontamination Plan of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago) have relied on the human capital approach to value premature mortality effects, and on the cost of illness approach to value morbidity effects. Although this is clearly a lower bound for the social valuation, lack of data prevents the use of other values. The use of values transferred from developed countries represents a challenge too, because of the great disparity in values. For example, while the above mentioned Decontamination Plan used a value of US$42 thousand for each premature death avoided. Task IV.3 Economic valuation of social damages Once the unit values have been established, we will estimate the social damage associated to the air pollution levels for each control scenario, and could estimate the social benefits compared to the base case. Products • • Unit values for mortality and morbidity effects. Social losses due to mortality and morbidity effects of different GHG scenarios Module V Analysis of Benefits The final module of the project is an analysis and integration module. This module actually tries to integrate the results from the previous four modules, answering some questions which can be of useful for the formulation or revision of policies, like: • What are the expected benefits in terms of health effects due to measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gases? • Is it possible to obtain some important reductions in local concentrations using measures directed at reducing GHGs? Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 16 Reports and Workshops We will prepare three reports from the project: two interim reports and one final report. • COP-5 Progress Report This report is aimed at producing some preliminary information that can be useful to local policymakers attending the COP-5 in Bonn. The report will also be a good opportunity to put together all relevant information available. The contents of the report will be: 1. Baseline 2. Preliminary identification of measures aimed at reducing GHG 3. Preliminary identification of air pollutant emissions associated with the measures 4. Estimation of changes in ambient concentrations and effects for Santiago • Urban Health Effects & Country-wide Health Effects Report We will prepare a report presenting the results of the analysis of changes in health effects due to implementation of the GHG mitigation scenarios. The report will contain a sections describing the methodology used, the data generated, the results obtained and an analysis of these results. • Country Final Reports Final country reports will summarize the results of the project for in-country policy makers. In-country Final Workshops to Disseminate Results The final country reports will be presented to in-country policy makers to disseminate results and obtain feedback on the usefulness of co-control benefits analysis to assist in policy development of GHG mitigation options. 3. Proposal for Phase II activities In collaboration with the international team lead by NREL , we will develop a proposal for follow-on activities for continuing the cooperation and analysis of this initial pilot phase. Areas in which we envision continuing collaboration are atmospheric models, health effects quantification, and valuation of health effects in the context of a developing country. Most of these follow-on activities are implicit in the previous sections of this proposal: complete databases, carry on measurement campaigns, set up computational models, and so on. In the case of ambient air quality levels, there is no safe way to extrapolate results from Santiago to other cities/regions. Therefore, as new data such as emissions inventories and air quality monitoring (discrete or Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 17 continuous) is being produced in the country, the methodology set up in Section 2.2, validated by external peer review and possibly updated can be used to extract further information like estimates of future air quality impacts under different scenarios. Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 18 4. Project Schedule Activities Module I: GHG Mitigation Scenarios Module Task I.1 Establishment of the baseline Task I.2 Identification of measures Task I.3 Analysis of mitigation measures • • Transport sector measures Electric energy efficiency measures 1 X X 2 X X X X X X 3 X X X X X X X 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 • Industrial sector measures Task I.4 Construction of a draft scenario Task I.5 Compatibilization with scenarios proposed by Team A (if they become available) Module II: Ambient Air Pollution Module Task II.1 Gather and validate key data elements Task II.2 Develop Draft Ambient Air Quality Scenarios Task II.3 Ozone sensitivity to reductions in VOC and NO x emissions Task II.4 PM10 and PM2,5 changes associated with emission reductions Task II.5 Rollback techniques for CO, HC, SO2 and NOx Task II.6 Develop final AAQ scenarios urban and rural Module III: Health Effects Estimation Task III.1 Definition of the model to be used Task III.2 Review and refine C-R relationships Task III.3 Estimate excess health effects for control scenarios Task III.4 Extrapolate results to country-wide scale Module IV: Economic Valuation and Benefits Analysis Task IV.1 Collect effects valuation for developing countries Task IV.2 Develop unit valuation for health effects Task IV.3 Economic valuation of social damages Module V: Analysis of Benefits Proposal for Phase II Development of draft proposal for Phase II Final proposal for Phase II Reports and Workshops COP-5 Progress report Health Effects Report (Draft/Final) Country Final Reports (Draft/Final) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Co-Benefits Proposal – PUC 7/29/99 19