IES Brazil Workplan Proposal

Workplan Proposal Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) in São Paulo, Brazil Flavio Cotrim Pinheiro December 2002 Workplan Proposal Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) in São Paulo, Brazil December 2002 OVERVIEW ..........................................................................................................2 1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................3 Objectives ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 Project Team................................................................................................................................................. 4 São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR).................................................................................................... 5 Potential Collaboration with Other Related Studies ................................................................................. 6 Major Current Policies, Programs, and Projects Affecting Transportation in SPMR .......................... 7 2. GENERAL ASPECTS OF THE PROJECT ......................................................9 Pollutants Considered..................................................................................................................................... 9 Pollution Sources Considered....................................................................................................................... 10 Pollution Impacts Considered....................................................................................................................... 11 Time Frame .................................................................................................................................................. 11 3. METHODS ......................................................................................................11 Development of Sources and Emissions Inventories ............................................................................... 11 Ambient Air Quality Modeling ................................................................................................................. 13 Health Impact Assessment and Estimation .............................................................................................. 15 Economic Valuation and Benefit Analysis ............................................................................................... 16 Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative Scenarios ...................................................................................... 18 Policy Recommendations and Dissemination of Results ......................................................................... 19 Project Management .................................................................................................................................. 19 4. SCHEDULE OF ACTIVITIES..........................................................................20 APPENDICES.....................................................................................................23 Appendix 1. Data Flow – PROCONVE 1990s.......................................................................................... 23 Appendix 2. Data Flow – FUTURE SCENARIOS .................................................................................. 24 Appendix 3. Important References ........................................................................................................... 25 Overview The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) initiated the Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) in 1998 to assist developing countries with evaluation and human benefits of technologies and policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There are projects in eight countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Korea, Philippines, India and Mexico. The projects receive technical support from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as well other cooperators and contractors, such as ABT Associates. The IES project in Brazil will cover the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (RMSP). The IES workgroup is formed by CETESB (with institutional support from the São Paulo State Environmental Secretary), the Medical School and the Astronomy and Geophysics Institute of USP, IPEA and two independent energy consultants. All emission sources in RMSP will be considered with special attention to mobile sources – the main source of emissions according to studies done by CETESB. The pollutants to be considered are CO2, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2 and O3. Emissions from base year (2000) and emissions projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be calculated using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning). Pollutants concentrations modeling will be done using the CIT model (Carnegie/Caltech). The impacts in health will be quantified using dose-response curves developed by the USP Medical School and IPEA will convert these impacts into monetary values using the methods Transfer of Benefits Function, Human Capital, and Willingness-To-Pay (WTP). The diagram below describe the steps of the project: IES Diagram It is expect that this work will help to prioritize public policy and technology options to be implemented, having cost-effective analyses as criteria; and that a better understanding about the available alternatives will facilitate decision-making and fundraising for implementation of such alternatives. The project, recently initiated, will take a year to be completed. Seven preliminary reports will lead to a workshop to be scheduled, at the end of which a final report will be published. 2 1. Introduction Objectives The overall objective of this project is to establish a framework for development, analysis and implementation of integrated, environmentally sustainable policies for the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR), with particular focus on the transport system, in order to supply decision-makers with stronger policy instruments to simultaneously address local, regional and global environmental issues based on technical, economic and social criteria. The work shall consider and analyze strategies and/or technologies for potential implementation that can optimize the local-regional-global benefits. The specific objectives of this project include: • • • • • Analyze the health impact of the first phase of the PROCONVE project implemented in São Paulo in the 1990’s; Provide CETESB with an up-to-date and high-quality inventory to be used in the modeling efforts; Develop a set of baseline and alternative energy/emission scenarios for São Paulo for analysis of specific technologies and policy measures under consideration for implementation to mitigate local air pollution and also GHG emissions; Develop and/or adapt an air quality model for São Paulo and use this model to estimate pollutant concentrations and exposure changes due to each of the alternative energy/emission scenarios and technology and policy measures; Establish dose-response curves relating air pollution to human health, expressed in terms of morbidity as well as mortality and apply these functions to estimate changes in potential health impacts between the different scenarios and mitigation measures based on possible policies of use of fossil fuels with potential to be implemented in São Paulo; Assess and quantify the air pollution, environmental health and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of energy technologies under consideration for implementation in São Paulo; Estimate the economic benefits of policies and technologies to reduce air pollution and GHG emissions in São Paulo, presented in economical grounds and in terms of number of avoidable health outcomes and of years lost and lived with disability; Employ the results of this analysis to enhance support of decision makers and the public for implementation of “win-win” policy measures and technologies; Develop a strategy that will lead to the consideration and possible implementation of some of the more promising measures identified by the study. • • • • 3 Project Team People from the following institutions compose the project team for the IES São Paulo project: CETESB FM/USP IAG/USP IPEA São Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency Medical School of the University of São Paulo Astronomy and Geophysics Institute, University of São Paulo National Institute for Applied Economics Research The project leaders within each institution are: Fernando Rei Alfésio Braga Maria de Fátima Andrade Ronaldo Serôa da Motta CETESB FM/USP IAG/USP IPEA The project team will also count with Luiz Tadêo Siqueira Prado, a private energy consultant, who will develop emission scenarios; Alcir Vilela from SMA/SP (São Paulo State Environment Secretary), who will provide support to CETESB in this effort; and Flavio Pinheiro, an NREL subcontractor for the São Paulo project. The table below summarizes the role of each member of the project team: CETESB (Fernando Rei) FM/USP (Alfesio Braga) IAG/USP (M. Fátima Andrade) IPEA (R. Serôa de Motta) Luiz Tadêo Siqueira Prado Alcir Vilela Flavio Pinheiro Flavio Pinheiro with input from various team members Scenario definition and development Provision of data Review of work done by other institutions in the team. Health impact analysis (including future estimations) Pollutant dispersion modeling Economic valuation of health impacts and cost-effective analysis for alternative scenarios Emission estimates and scenario development. Support from SMA/SP and dissemination results Coordination of and support to various efforts Reporting to NREL&USEPA Cost of implementation of proposed technologies and policies 4 São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) The area covered in this study is the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). SPMR is located in Southeastern Brazil on a plateau 700 meters above sea level on the edge of the coastal mountain range. It consists of 39 municipalities covering an area of 8 thousand square kilometers (approximately 0.1% of the Brazilian territory) and with a total population of 17.89 million (approximately 10% of the national population). The average population density is 2,236 people per square kilometer (____ per square mile), but there are large discrepancies in population density within SPMR. SPMR MAP SPMR’s 39 municipalities: Arujá, Barueri, Biritiba-Mirim, Caieiras, Cajamar, Carapicuíba, Cotia, Diadema, Embu, Embu-Guaçu, Ferraz de Vasconcelos, Francisco Morato, Franco da Rocha, Guararema, Guarulhos, Itapecerica da Serra, Itapevi, Itaquaquecetuba, Jandira, Juquitiba, Mairiporã, Mauá, Moji das Cruzes, Osasco, Pirapora do Bom Jesus, Poá, Ribeirão Pires, Rio Grande da Serra, Salesópolis, Santa Isabel, Santana do Parnaíba, Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo, São Caetano do Sul, São Lourenço da Serra, São Paulo, Suzano, Taboão da Serra and Vargem Grande Paulista. In 2002, SPMR had a GDP of US$100 billion, what represented about 20% of Brazil’s GDP. In SPMR there is intense but decreasing industrial activity. This decrease is a result of industrial migration to the interior of São Paulo State and to other states of Brazil. On the other hand, the service sector is growing within SPMR. As a result, one could expect a reduction in industrial emissions. The transport sector, in contrast, has shown a sharp increase especially after the Real national economic stabilization plan in 1994 when purchasing automobiles became possible to a larger portion of the population. In SPMR there are over 6 million private cars, what represents about 50% of the State fleet or 25% of the national fleet. In addition to private cars the metropolitan area also counts with some 20 thousand urban buses; thousand of motorcycles; a fast growing number of mini-vans; a large number of trucks and road buses that come and go or drive through the metropolitan area; and 319 kilometers of subway and surface train lines. The São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) in numbers Indicator SPMR Population (in millions) * Area (km2) GDP (US$ billion) * GDP per capita (US$) Number of vehicles Number of public buses Extension of urban train lines (km) Total CO2 emissions (tCO2eq) 17.9 8,051 100 5,590 ~ 6 million ~ 19,800 ** 319 *** Brazil 169.8 8,511,965 513 3,021 ~ 24 million - NOTES: * IBGE (Brazilian Statistics Institute) Census 2000 - http://www.ibge.net/ ** 10,400 managed by SPTrans (2002); 9,400 by EMTU (2002); and _____ by other municipal companies 5 *** 49km managed by Metrô (2002) and 270km by CPTM (2002) Potential Collaboration with Other Related Studies IES International USEPA’s Integrated Environmental Strategies program is sponsoring similar studies in many countries in Latin America and Asia. There will be great opportunities to share results and experiences and establish partnerships between the various groups from different countries. Also, there will be regional workshops and other activities to show results, models, expertise, etc. and an IES Handbook is being developed to help transferring this knowledge to additional cities in many countries. World Bank’s Clean Air Initiative The World Bank initiated its São Paulo Clean Air Initiative project in 2001. Recently the São Paulo State Environment Secretary established the São Paulo Metropolitan Clean Air Committee, which brings together state and municipal officers, CETESB, NGOs and others with the objective of developing a long-term strategy for solving regional air pollution concerns. Although this Committee has not addressed climate issues yet, there remain opportunities for collaboration with the IES project. Other Related Work in São Paulo PITU The Project for Integrated Urban Transport (PITU) was initiated in the mid-1990s by the State of São Paulo. The Metropolitan Transport Secretary (STM) and its associated companies (CPTM, Metrô, EMTU e Emplasa) conducted the project, which was an investment plan with targets for the following ten years (CETESB participated in the project in 1997 to provide technical assistance on environmental and safety issues). PITU’s main objectives are (1) to increase and enhance the public transport system in SMPR; (2) to improve economic efficiency and social approval of services; (3) to improve traffic congestion, reduce traffic accidents, reduce environmental pollution and reduce fuel use; (4) to increase the amount of investments through partnerships with the private sector in order to assure appropriate expansion of the system and improvement of services. ANTP’s Sustainable Transportation The National Public Transport Association has developed reports on how to to improve public transportation in Brazil, particularly in large cities. ANTP aggregates government institutions, universities, and companies to discuss public transport and propose alternatives. 6 Major Current Policies, Programs, and Projects Affecting Transportation in SPMR PRO-ALCOHOL PROGRAM - Implemented in the 1970s during the oil crises - Currently, all gasoline sold in Brazil contains 25% ethanol added, which is no longer subsidized. - Fleet of E100 vehicles peaked in early 1990s and government is currently considering promoting these cars once again. - Flex-Fuel cars, which are expected to reach the Brazilian market in 2003, may be a better alternative to E100 vehicles. - In Brazil there are efforts to add alcohol to Diesel, which still is in the research stage. A better alternative for urban buses may be hybrid ethanol-electric vehicles (production of these vehicles is currently being considered by Eletra bus manufacturer) PROCONVE PROGRAM - The National Environmental Council (CONAMA) in 1986 created the Program for Control of Air Pollution from Mobile Sources (PROCONVE), with its main objective being to reduce air pollutant emissions from mobile sources. - Maximum emission limits were defined for three vehicle categories: “light passenger vehicles” (automobiles); "light commercial vehicles” (pick-ups, vans, utilitarians, etc) and "heavy vehicles” (buses and trucks). - In 1992, as a result of PROCONVE new emission standards for new vehicles, manufacturers added catalyzers to new vehicles – Pd-Rh catalyzers for gasohol (E22) vehicles and Pd-Mo catalyzers for ethanol (E100) vehicles. - In 1997, Vehicle manufacturers also added single-point or multipoint electronic fuel injection and other components such as exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) valve, oxygen (lambda) sensor, high-energy ignition, secondary air injection, and canister. - In 2002, PROCONVE establishes new emission limits for all vehicles up to 2009. “RODOANEL” – THE SPMR BELTWAY - The São Paulo state government, with support from the federal government, is currently building a 170-km beltway around the São Paulo Metropolitan Region. - The main objective is two remove through-traffic from the highly urbanized areas in order to reduce traffic congestion within the SPMR and to increase the speed of road transportation that currently goes through SPMR; on the other hand, RODOANEL may promote expansion of SPMR and increase in vehicle use. PIV – THE VEHICLE EMISSION INSPECTION PROGRAM - Due to political difficulties, the program has not been implemented yet in the State of São Paulo. Currently, the only ongoing inspection program in Brazil is a small-scale program in the city of Rio de Janeiro. 7 - Soon, the State of São Paulo, through CETESB, is expected to implement its Vehicle Emission Inspection Program, which is expected to reduce air pollution as well as noise pollution. In SPMR, the São Paulo municipality may run its own program (with technical support from CETESB) independently from the other municipalities. SUBWAY AND SURFACE TRAIN EXTENTION - The State of São Paulo has recently connected the subway system to the commuter rail system. Several train stations also are connected to bus stations. This has improved considerably the public transportation system in SMPR, although there is still a great need for better public transport. - Currently there are several subway lines planned for and a few under construction in areas never attended by subway lines before. 8 2. General Aspects of the Project The major project components are the following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Analysis of the benefits and costs of the first phase of the PROCONVE project; Development of baseline and integrated mitigation scenarios; Air quality and exposure model and analysis; Health effect estimation; Economic benefits valuation; Cost-benefit analysis of specific measures; Summary of results and dissemination; Dissemination of results and promotion of implementation of some of the more promising measures. The expected final products of this project shall include final project reports, policy workshops, and international and Brazil journal articles which shall be designed to inform policy decisions and lead toward implementation of promising co-benefit measures to address critical public health issues and climate change. This project will assess the importance of SPMR for Brazil in addressing global environmental concerns under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and provide a mechanism to simultaneously address both global and local environmental concerns with an integrated policy approach. Mitigation of emissions of local and global pollutants from the energy consumption sectors (residential, commercial, transportation, industrial and biomass burning) of SPMR is an important environmental objective of the State of São Paulo. Developing and implementing solutions to air pollution is critical to addressing environmental and social problems in SPMR. The study will be developed in 2 parts. The first part will focus on the changes that already occurred in São Paulo, as consequence of the reduction in air pollution due to the implementation of the first phase of the PROCONVE program. This will give the study the unique opportunity to check the health, economic and GHG emission impacts of a program designed to reduce air pollution. The second part of the study will analyze the potential health benefits of selected air pollution mitigation measures, such as fuel switching (natural gas in heavy duty vehicles, etc), traffic management and inspection programs, etc. Pollutants Considered The pollutants to be considered in this work will be those monitored by CETESB (São Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency): PM10, SO2, CO, O3, NO2, and nonmethane HC. CETESB maintains a network of stations since 1981 and it also operates 9 manual mobile stations1. The adoption of rules of limiting emissions by newly produced cars (the first phase of the PROCONVE project) was responsible for the decrease of the levels of CO and NO2 in the metropolitan region during the 1990´s. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels have been lowering since 1982 as a result of tighter control of industrial emissions promoted by CETESB’s programs in collaboration with major stationary emission sources - the main strategy in these programs was switching to cleaner fuels. Particulate matter, although in decrease, remain a major health concern. Ozone levels have remained reasonably stable since 1997 and needs to be reduced. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction resulting from the PROCONVE program will also be calculated and future emissions will be estimated for all scenarios developed in this project. Methane (CH4) might be considered in special cases depending on the policy and technological options chosen for the analysis. Pollution Sources Considered The main sectors to be considered are: 1. Transport – good inventory – growing fleet 2. Commercial – no inventory 3. Industrial – poor inventory 4. Residential – no inventory 5. Power generation – estimates – new gas-fired power plants The information will vary in detail and reliability for each of these sectors. Assumptions will most likely be made in different degrees for each sector. Mobile sources are best known and CETESB has kept a reasonably updated emission inventory for these sources. Presently, air pollution sources in São Paulo are dominated by transportation, as it has been determined by receptor-model studies carried out by CETESB. (REFERENCE). SPMR’s industrial park has been not grown in the past few years due mostly to the migration of companies to the interior of São Paulo state and to other regions of the country. On the other hand, the service industry has increased in SPMR (REFERENCE). However, there is a great lack of updated information on industrial emissions. Recently there has been an increase in sales of diesel generators for industrial facilities. The impact of these systems is still to be addressed. On the other hand, new gas-fired power plants are being built next to SPMR to provide electricity to the region that is currently mostly supplied by hydropower sources (on the other hand, some gas-fired facilities may replace oil-fired plants). The transportation sector also shows distressing trends: • Increasing fleet (5% to 10% annual growth in the past few years), • Increasing single-occupancy vehicles (currently 50% of all vehicles), • Traffic jams frequently add up to 100 km in extension in peak hours, Automatic network system measures TSP, PM10, SO2, CO, O3, and NO2 levels. Manual systems may measure non-methane HC, NOx, aldehydes, and PM2.5. 1 10 • • Increasing number of motorcycles with poor vehicle emission control systems, Insufficient public transportation system based on traditional diesel buses. Pollution Impacts Considered This study will focus on health impacts. Studies conducted by the Medical School of the University of São Paulo (USP) have demonstrated a direct correlation between atmospheric levels of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants from fossil fuel combustion and rates of morbidity and mortality among children and elders, as well as higher incidence of asthma attacks and greater frequency of visits of children with respiratory difficulties to emergency rooms during thermo inversion periods. (REFERENCES) In a recent World Bank study in SPMR it was calculated that the cost of greater morbidity and mortality rates associated with respiratory illnesses caused by high levels of fine particulate matter (smaller than 10 microns) was between $750 million and $1.5 billion. (REFERENCE) Time Frame The time frame considered for this project will be 1990-2020. The USP Medical School group will compile their work in the last 10 years to assess the benefits of the PROCONVE program in the population health in periods 1991-1994 and 1997-1999. Dose response functions will be calculated and used to estimate air pollution health impacts in future air quality scenarios for years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. General Aspects of the Project – Summary Pollutants: PM10, SO2, CO, O3, NO2 and non-methane HC Emissions GHG: CO2 and CH4 Sources Transport (main focus), industrial, residential, commercial, power generation Impacts Air pollution health impacts and associated economic valuation PROCONVE analysis: 1991-1999 Time Frame Future Scenarios: 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 3. Methods Development of Sources and Emissions Inventories The first task of the project will be the development of integrated energy/environment scenarios that consider present measures and possible future measures to reduce emissions of air pollutants and improve future air quality of São Paulo Metropolitan Region –SPMR while simultaneously considering the benefits to GHG mitigation. This task will develop and study different scenarios for energy consumption and atmospheric pollutant emission to analyze the changes in the city air quality according to the adoption of the specific technologies and policy measures considered in each of the scenarios. 11 Three main scenarios will be formed for each energy consumption sector (residential, commercial, transportation and industrial). The methodology to form these scenarios will be the Alternative Energy Planning System- LEAP2000. LEAP2000 is software devised to analyze, in an integrated way, the relation between energy and the environment. Luiz Tadeo expressed interest in talking to Charlie Heaps (TELLUS) about the LEAP program and possibly exploring a small workshop or training. NREL will first talk to Charlie to find out the different types of training programs available, and then discuss the best option with Tadeo. The base year will be the year 2000. Data collection for base year will be from CETESB and the São Paulo State Energy Secretary. CETESB will identify technology and policy options (including clean energy measures and technologies, and clean vehicle technologies and policies) for scenario development. The mitigation policies and measures to be considered will be the following: 1. Transportation a. Natural Gas Vehicles; b. Flex-Fuel Vehicles (ethanol/gasoline); c. Hybrid Propulsion Systems (hybrid electric-diesel Eletra Bus); d. Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance Program; e. Extension of Subway Lines. 2. Industry a. Fuel Switching (diesel and oil to natural gas) b. Cogeneration (if data allows) 3. Residential and Commercial a. Passive solar water heating (if data allows) This list of measures was developed with inputs from a few individuals involved in or just interested in the project. Other measures may be considered in case some of these listed above are not possible to analyze. More measures considered in other IES projects, PITU and other past projects in São Paulo or elsewhere may be considered in the future or if proposed or requested by CETESB. Other stakeholders may also provide ideas to be included later in the project, if appropriate. The work shall mention and define very clearly all assumptions for a baseline, an air pollution baseline, and several alternative integrated energy/environmental scenarios to simultaneously mitigate local air pollution and GHG emissions. Cost benefit analysis of each specific measures and technologies will be carried out later in the project in order to provide policy makers with a “ranking” of which measures are more cost effective and which are more effective at pollutant reductions, more effective at GHG reductions and also those that are effective at both. The specific measures analysis is a key component of the project. International collaboration will assist with review of technology and policy options, scenario assumptions, scenario development methodology, and facilitation of collaboration with teams carrying out similar work in other countries. 12 Luiz Tadeo will lead this task. Ambient Air Quality Modeling Using the emission inventory for the base year, the ambient air quality will be calculated for the base year and results will be calibrated with air quality monitoring data, and estimate ambient air quality under each scenario for future years. The emission inventory shall include the key pollutants PM10, SO2, CO, O3, NO2 and non-methane HC and greenhouse gases CO2 and, if appropriate, CH4 for stationary, mobile and area sources for each of the key economic sectors. Base year concentrations of the pollutants at projected receptor sites will be calculated using the base year emission inventory and meteorological data. Air quality monitoring data shall be used to examine and calibrate the modeled pollutant concentration results to verify and improve the air quality model. Estimates of ambient air pollution resulting from the baseline and alternative mitigation scenarios shall be developed for each of the pollutants considered. These estimates shall be associated with the reductions in emissions of primary pollutants that, in turn, are caused by the different specific air pollutant and GHG abatement measures to be considered in each mitigation scenario. Tasks necessary to conduct the air pollution analysis activities include: identifying and developing sources for the required data and information including emission inventories, developing methods to perform quality checks on the database, and developing methods to prepare the necessary future estimates. Representative data needed for this analysis shall include: current air quality levels, current emissions and emission inventories, meteorology, fuel consumption estimates by sector, etc. Ambient air quality scenarios shall be developed for São Paulo. These scenarios shall identify the main reductions in air pollutants (PM10, CO, NOx, SO2, O3), and the magnitude of those reductions. These scenarios shall be circulated to both in- country and international experts for review. The final results from this activity shall be scenarios in which both the changes in air pollution levels and the absolute ambient levels shall be estimated. PM10 will be estimated from CO values. PM2.5 may be easily estimated by taking 60% of the PM10 value, according to CETESB. (Maria Fátima would like assistance to develop estimates of the particulate phase analysis for PM. NREL needs to gather more information from her to better understand the CIT model and how it estimates PM10, if direct emissions will be included as well as secondary PM and also if PM2.5 could be included as well). The Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics of the University of São Paulo (USP) will have the lead for this project component. The CIT Model The Eulerian photochemical model CIT – developed in Caltech (California Institute of Technology) – will be used for simulation of gaseous pollutant formation. It will be applies to various scenarios for São Paulo: 13 abcd- Before PROCONVE After PROCONVE Current conditions Conditions in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. The results from all simulations will be compared with the current conditions in order to evaluate the air quality trends with respect to the gaseous pollutants: ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. The Photochemical Model The CIT model will be used for describing the equilibrium of the gaseous phase. CIT is a model for photochemical diagnosis, which is being calibrated to describe the production of ozone and other photochemical oxidants and their transport in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (Andrade et al., 1996), including sources from Cubatão. The CIT model (McRae et al., 1982a; Harley et al., 1993) calculates the distribution of gaseous species in a region by solving equation of mass conservation for the species in a reacting system. It considers emissions, chemical reactions, transport and deposition of gases involved in the production of photochemical oxidants, with emphasis on ozone and PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate). CIT’s basic components are: 1. A kinetic mechanism describing chemical reactions; 2. A description of sources, with spatial and temporal distribution of emissions; 3. A meteorological description, which includes wind speed and direction for each station, vertical distribution of temperature, and radiation intensity. For application in São Paulo and other regions the model suffers from the lack of meteorological data for surface and altitudes, what may compromise the results of pollutant concentration and spatial distribution. The modeling of chemical processes and the analytical tool are described below, with a focus on CIT. The model consists of three modules: (1) meteorological, (2) chemical reaction, and (3) sources. The atmosphere is described as a tri-dimensional grid and the transport, chemical reactions and emission sources must be described for each cell. The model is based on the equation of atmospheric diffusion. The cells have horizontal areas of 5x5 km and their height may vary according to the height of the mixing layer considered, which is distributes in 5 levels. A major simplification in the model is that the presence of the pollutants does not affect the urban meteorology. This approximation allows the treatment of chemical reactions and the description of flux fields to be done as two independent modules. Advection and turbulent mixture are the two processes that dominate the dispersion of pollutants in urban areas. In the CIT model, velocity fields and 14 the diffusive tensor characterize these processes. A simple interpolation diagram is used for the majority of meteorological scalar field in the model, such as temperature, relative humidity, and air quality. The CIT model uses an absolute scale (ppm of H2O) by converting the humidity measures to concentration of water vapor utilizing an expression described in McRae (1980). Direct measures of solar radiation and cloud cover data are utilized to calculate the correction the predicted radiation. This model includes three basic types of chemical reactions: inorganic, lumped hydrocarbons and photolysis. Typical photochemical reactions that aggregate hundreds of reactions for a small number of species are called lumped. The mechanism utilized in the model is SAPRC (http://helium.ucr.edu/~carter/reactdat.htm). This mechanism aggregates organic species by molecule with similar structure and reactivity. The model includes 223 chemical reactions, which involve 90 inorganic and organic species. Source of data: Necessary data from CETESB are air quality data from Telemetric Network and the inventory of emissions for past years as well as emission estimates for future years. Health Impact Assessment and Estimation The health impacts stage of the project will be divided into two parts: (1) an assessment of the health impacts of the PROCONVE program in the past 10 years in the SPMR; and (2) an estimation of anticipated health effects related to scenarios developed in previous stages of the project. Analysis of the 3 initial phases of the PROCONVE program The first part of the health impact study will consist of an analysis of the air pollution health benefits and GHG mitigation consequences of the PROCONVE Program implemented in the 1990s in São Paulo. The realized health benefits will be compared to the program costs and where possible, analyze benefits and costs of specific clean energy technologies and policy measures implemented will be analyzed. The dose-response curves will be determined for 2 windows of time: 1991 to 1994 and 1997 to 2000. The two time segments correspond to the change of the air pollution-monitoring network done in São Paulo during 1995 to 1996, and will also allow investigation of the effects of the PROCONVE project on health. In addition, the USP Medical School will compute the quantity of years of life lost and years lived with disability due to air pollution. The estimated health effects will be linked to the economic valuation component of this project to develop estimates of the economic benefits of the PROCONVE program. Determination and Evaluation of anticipated health effects The anticipated air pollution health effects that can be expected to result from the baseline and each of the alternative energy/emissions scenarios will be analyzed and compared to one another. The project team shall primarily draw upon data from existing 15 and past studies on ambient air pollution and mortality/incidence of respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary tumors, etc in São Paulo and other Latin American countries (US or European studies may be used for health endpoint when local or Latin America data does not exist). The study shall integrate the evaluation for acute and chronic affects of the ambient air pollution on human health and the development of dose-response relationships between exposure to air pollution and health effects based on the available data. This study shall be based on average daily concentrations of PM10, SO2, NOx, O3, etc., from monitoring data. The effects of air pollutants on out-patient visits and emergency room visits will be assessed adjusting for temperature, humidity, season, and days of the week as covariables in the time-series analysis. The USP Medical School will be the lead institution for estimating the dose-response curves relating air pollutants to health outcomes. These curves will be computed in terms of morbidity – respiratory and cardiovascular admissions – and mortality. The segments of the population to be evaluated will be children under 5 years of age and adults over 65 years. Respiratory and cardiovascular events will be evaluated for the elderly group. The main outcome of the Health Effects Estimation shall be estimates of the changes in health effects resulting from reductions in ambient pollution levels of each of the key air pollutants. The methodology to be used is the damage function approach. The tasks needed to estimate health effects include: 1) Definition of the model and methodology to be used, 2) Review and refine C-R Relationships, 3) Estimate Excess Health Effects for Control scenarios and specific measures. International collaboration will assist with development and review of models and methodologies for application in São Paulo, and facilitation of collaboration with teams carrying out similar work in other countries This component of the project may result in a tool similar to the one developed by the Chile project, with which analysis of health effects may be faster to repeat in the future using functions developed in this work. Some collaboration with the Chile group might be important. Also, this tool may include economic valuation options as described in the next section. Source of data: CETESB (air quality and meteorological data) PROAIM (health municipal database) and DATASUS (health national database) Economic Valuation and Benefit Analysis It will be estimated the economic value of anticipated health effects resulting from the energy/environmental scenarios and specific technology and policy measures. Valuing health impacts of air pollution usually involves two steps: first, establishing a doseresponse function in order to estimate how many deaths and how much illness were attributed to a given dose of pollution; and second, valuing the health impacts in monetary terms. The study shall use existing study results and transfer these results to the context of this study. First, the study shall use the dose-response function developed in a previous project stage and other previous studies. Mortality and morbidity data for the estimation 16 of health impacts attributed to air pollution shall be from existing death statistic reports and national/local health surveys. Benefits transfer will be the most likely approach for valuing mortality effects while human capital and willingness-to-pay (WTP) approaches shall be used for valuing the morbidity health impact of air pollution. For human capital approach, the values of medical expenditure and wage rates will be collected from existing national/local health surveys and other related health statistical reports. For WTP approach, the value of statistical life (VSL) shall be estimated. This project component may result in a tool that can provide a easy way to calculate economic valuation of health impacts. This tool may be incorporated into or prepared separately from the Health Impacts tool. The Institute of Economic Research (IPEA) will be the lead institution for the estimation of the economical benefits of the changes of air pollution, derived both from the historical change that occurred in São Paulo as well as the future directions pointed by the possible changes of energy use. Benefit Transfer method The valuation of mortality and morbidity incidents associated with atmospheric pollution, or VVE, will utilized the function of benefit transfer2, given by the following expression: VVEbr = VVEeu (PPCbr / PPCeu)e where: VVEbr VVEeu PPCbr PPCeu e damage value associated with mortality and morbidity associated with air pollution in Brazil damage value associated with mortality and morbidity associated with air pollution in Europe Brazilian per capita income adjusted to PPP3 of Real European per capita income adjusted to PPP of Europe marginal income elasticity for Brazil VVE represents society’s opportunity cost of losing a person’s life (non specific) or avoiding an illness. It represents how much society would be willing to pay to reduce the risk of the illness. In this work, VVEs used will be estimated from European values (Externe, 1998). The transfer function is only based on the power purchased parity adjusted per capita differential income and weighted by the income demand elasticity. This last measurement Benefit Transfer is “an application of monetary values from a particular valuation study to an alternative or secondary policy decision setting, often in another geographic area than the one where the original study was performed” (Markandya, 1998). 3 PPP: power purchased parity 2 17 represents the marginal reduction for the willingness to pay of an individual for a certain benefit related to the marginal reduction of his/her income. Heintz et alli (1996) propose that the adjustment were done differently, taking into account other factors such as life expectancy and health expenditures. In this case the benefit transfer function is as follows: VVEbr = VVEeu × (PPCbr / PPCeu)e × (Ebr / Eeu) × (Gbr / Geu) where: E G life expectancy in Europe and Brazil government health expenditures in Europe and Brazil (14) Source of data: See completed draft report Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative Scenarios A draft report to be developed will provide an analysis of the costs and benefits of implementation of the alternative policies and measures for the energy/environment scenarios for São Paulo. For each of the alternative energy/environmental scenarios and specific technological and policy measures considered, analysis shall include estimation and comparison of the economic costs, public health effects and economic benefits, GHGs emission reductions, and cost-effectiveness of alternative scenarios and specific measures. The results from the previous project components described above shall be analyzed and integrated. Flavio Pinheiro will first write a draft report based on the information provided in the reports previously developed for this project. Benefits to be considered will be: 1. Social - Avoided health costs (FMUSP/IPEA) 2. Individual - Fuel savings (IPEA) Costs to be considered will be: 1. Social: - Cost of implementation of programs to be provided by CETESB (e.g., I/M) - Cost of subway extension to be provided by Simone Miraglia (FMUSP) - Tax subsidies to ethanol cars (IPEA) 2. Individual: - Cost of equipment to be provided by manufacturers (e.g., alternative vehicles) – Flavio Pinheiro will request it Costs and benefits will be compared in terms of (a) total cost and benefits and (b) social and individual cost and benefits. 18 All measures will also be compared in non-monetary terms, i.e., air pollution and GHG emission reductions. The measures will be ranked in terms of monetary and non-monetary benefits. CETESB may need assistance in calculating costs of mitigation policies and technologies, particularly for I/M program. Policy Recommendations and Dissemination of Results CETESB will be the main forum for dissemination of the project methodology, approach, and results to domestic policymakers in Brazil and international audiences. Specific activities shall include hosting a policymakers review workshop to review the project outcome and results, development and distribution of a final project report, publication of short reports and articles on the project approach, methodology and results in Brazil, and presentations and short papers at international conference events. This event will be hosted by CETESB. Project Management A Yahoo group has been created to disseminate project results between all group members. This will allow all group members to have access to the latest reports in their final report at any time from anywhere they might be. The Yahoo group will also allow email communications that will reach all group members at once and messages will be saved in a common server. This is expected to improve communications with all group members and particularly with Ronaldo Serôa da Motta (IPEA). Each project component relies on the completion of the previous component. For this reason, each group member will make sure his/hers report is in a format appropriate to the member that will develop the following component. This will be assured in meetings with the appropriate members to be scheduled by the project manager (Flavio Pinheiro). Flavio, who will send to all group members for comments before presenting in the policymaker workshop, will put the final report together. All draft reports will be sent to CETESB (Claudio Alonso) for comments 2 weeks before submitting the reports to NREL. The draft reports will be submitted to NREL whether CETESB has provided comments of not. The final report will be sent to CETESB for comments as well as approval. 19 4. Schedule of Activities Summary of Products and Deliverables for the Project 1) A detailed project work plan and schedule. (November 2002) – Work Team 2) A draft report summarizing the implementation and results of the Analysis of the first phase of the PROCONVE project (November 2002) – FM-USP 3) Base Year Inventory Report. Report summarizing the assumptions, methodology and results of energy and emissions in base year (2000). Results shall include analysis of energy technologies considered, costs, and emissions of key pollutants. This report will be circulated to in-country and international experts for comments (December 2002) – IEE-USP 4) A draft Mitigation Scenario Report summarizing the assumptions, methodology and results, including future emission levels, of the energy and emission baseline and alternative scenarios for the analysis of the integrated energy/environment scenarios for São Paulo. Results should also include analysis of energy technologies considered, costs, and emissions of key pollutants. This report will be circulated to incountry and international experts for comment (April 2003) – IEE-USP (Part 1) and IAG-USP (Part 2) 5) A draft Health Effects Analysis Report: A report on expected health effects describing the assumptions, methodology and the results of the analysis of changes in health effects due to implementation of the energy/environmental scenarios. The report will contain sections describing the methodology used, the data generated, the results obtained and an analysis of these results. This report will be circulated to in-country and international experts for comment. (July 2003) – FM-USP and IPEA 6) A draft report on cost-benefit analysis for alternative scenarios and specific technological and policy measures under consideration. The report will seek to rank the scenarios, technologies and policy measures by criteria that determine their potential to achieve integrated environmental benefits. (August 2003) – Flavio with collaboration from IEE, CETESB and IPEA 7) A Draft and a Final Report (draft report before the policy workshop and final report will include outcome of the policy workshop) will summarize the results of the project for in-country policy makers. The report will present the final results of the project to in-country policy makers and disseminate results and obtain feedback on the usefulness of integrated benefits analysis to assist in policy development of integrated policy options. (September 2003 and October 2003) – Flavio with collaboration Work Team 20 8) A final in-country reporting workshop will be held to present the final report and results of the project to in-country policy makers to disseminate results and obtain feedback on the usefulness of the analysis to assist in policy development of integrated policy options. (September 2003) – to be hosted by CETESB 9) A joint article by the project team for publication in an international journal will be prepared to summarize the results of the project and disseminate this information to an international audience. Detailed journal articles in may also be prepared for journals representing specific disciplines (e.g., energy, health, etc). (October 2003) – Work Team and individual groups 21 Schedule of Deliverables - Summary Deliverables Detailed project work plan Analysis of PROCONVE program 1990s Base Year Inventory Report Mitigation Scenario Report – Part 1 Mitigation Scenario Report – Part 2 Health Effects Analysis Report Cost-Benefit Analysis Report Draft of Final Report Final in-country reporting workshop Final Report Joint article by project team Nov Dec 2002 2002 Jan 2003 Feb 2003 Mar 2003 Apr 2003 May 2003 Jun 2003 Jul 2003 Ago 2003 Sep 2003 Oct 2003 22 Appendices Appendix 1. Data Flow – PROCONVE 1990s Inputs (source) Health Impacts Institution Outputs • • • Publications 1991-1999 FM-USP • • Morbidity/mortality (FM-USP) • Daly estimations (FM-USP) IPEA • • Dose response functions Premature deaths, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, hospital admissions, emergency room visits Daly estimations Valuation of morbidity / mortality Monetary valuation of Daly estimations GHG Mitigation Economic • Impact of technologies introduced • GHG emission reduction Cost-Benefit • • • Values of Health Benefits Cost of implementation of technologies and policies Work Team • Cost-Benefit Analysis Identification of technologies and policies with least cost of implementation, high health benefits and high GHG mitigation potential 23 Appendix 2. Data Flow – FUTURE SCENARIOS Inputs (source) • Emission Scenarios • • • • • • Air Quality Modelling Passenger.Km data (Metro survey) Emission Factors (CETESB, EPA, IPCC) Policy and technology options (CETESB) Energy consumption by sector (BEESP/Secretaria Energia, ANEEL) Fuel consumption in SPMR (BEESP/Secretaria Energia, ANP) Number of vehicles in SPMR (DETRAN/SP) Meteorological data – temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, radiation, vertical wind profile (CETESB, IAG-USP) Monitoring data – same as emission + O3 and PM2.5 – hourly data per station for period 1990-2000, and meteorological data (CETESB) Emission data – base year and projected emissions (IEE-USP) Projected air quality (IAG-USP) Temperature, humidity (CETESB, IAG-USP) Monitoring data – same as emission + O3 and PM2.5 – daily data per station for period 1990-2000 (CETESB) Morbidity/mortality (FM-USP) Daly estimations (FM-USP) IPEA FM-USP • • • • Value of health benefits Cost of implementation of technologies and policies (various sources) Work-Team • Identification of technologies and policies with least cost of implementation, high health benefits and high GHG mitigation potential • • Dose response functions Premature deaths, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, hospital admissions, emergency room visits Daly estimations Valuation of morbidity/mortality Monetary valuation of Daly estimations Cost-Benefit Analysis IEE-USP • • Projected emissions (point and area: CO2, CO, SO2, PM10, NO2, HC, TSP) Projections of baseline and alternative scenarios for pollutant emissions and fuel consumption Projections of baseline and alternative scenarios for GHG emissions Institution Outputs • • IAG-USP • • Simulation of base year Projected air quality Meteorological data (daily minimum temperature; noon humidity) • • • • • Valuation Cost-Benefit Health Impacts • • • • ANP – Agência Nacional do Petróleo (National Petroleum Association) DETRAN/SP (São Paulo State Transportation Department) 24 Appendix 3. Important References 25