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DISASTERS AND CONFLICTS

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DISASTERS AND CONFLICTS Powered By Docstoc
					DISASTERS
   AND
CONFLICTS
                      Agenda
•   RQ's
•   Review of the main conclusions:
     –   Impacts (+-) of disasters and disaster aid
         on conflicts
     –   Impacts of conflicts on disasters and
         disaster aid
     –   What can be done?
•   Exercise: Up-dating of the cases
•   Survey: How are we doing?
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                    Questions
   Do disasters create conditions for conflict
    resolution?
   Do disasters intensify conflicts?
   Do conflicts increase the impacts or create
    conditions for disasters?
   What can you do in terms of conflict prevention,
    before and after hazards occur?
   Do NGO's have a role in lessening the level of
    conflict in disaster areas?

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Negative impacts of disasters on
           conflicts
•   Stress from hazards increase inequalities
    (e.g. renting fares in New Orleans)
•   Insufficient response, inhumane treatment
    of victims, hoarding of external help,
    create conditions for resistance in
    authoritarian countries (for example:
    Nicaragua). Also eroding trust (Katrina).
    Was it really a negative impact?
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Negative impacts of disasters on
           conflicts
•   Drought increase rivalries for access to
    water and other resources, also between
    etnies, ideological parties
•   Floods due to bad land use in upper
    watersheds may increase rivalry between
    upper and lower watershed inhabitants
•   (Major) Earthquakes tend to intensify
    conflicts as scarcity is increased (Brancatti,
    2007, 185 countries 1975-2002)
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    Positive impacts of disasters on
                conflicts
•    Depends whether impacts were equally
     distributed or not among the parties
•    Opposing parties “unite” (for example
     Aceh)
•    More access to media and public interest
     on war torn areas that may have been
     secluded from access to information

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    Positive impacts of disasters on
                conflicts
•    Expressions of solidarity
•    Expressions of desire to terminate
     hostilities by the civil populations
•    Disaster changes public perceptions of
     the „enemy‟ (Ker-Lindsay et al. 2000, Greece-
     Turkey)
•    Disasters may have a legitimising effect
     on diplomatic rapprochement (Idem)
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    Positive impacts of disasters on
                conflicts
•     Kind offers of cooperation (examples?)
•     Kindly refused...




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    Negative impacts of disaster aid
    and compensations on conflicts
•     Unequal distribution can trigger conflicts
•     Deepens inequalities (those who have,
      benefit more)
•     Aid contributes to inflation that hits poorer
      people more
•     Property disputes for compensations or
      landscape modified property rights

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    Negative impacts of conflicts on
       vulnerability to hazards

•    War reduces resilience
•    Refugees are more vulnerable
•    Presence of warring parties may reduce
     the mobility of the local populations


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    Negative impacts of conflicts on
     the effectiveness of aid and
            compensations
•    Involvement of military: oppression or
     corruption (ressource pillage, trafficking,
     etc.)
•    Aid offer conditioned on the end of
     hostilities. Central govt and/or warring
     parties may both block aid supply


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Negative impacts of conflicts on
 the effectiveness of aid and
        compensations
• Ongoing conflict in one region at war,
  prevents aid from flowing in
• Military in charge of disaster response
  operations are distrusted by their opponents
• Aid staff victims of military violence

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      What can be done?
      International community

“The divisions between those working on
natural disaster risk reduction and complex
  political emergencies and development
   have hindered the search for ways to
  address such situations.” (UNDP 2004)



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         What can be done?
         International community
•   Improving conflict mediation capacities
•   Undertaking a more systematic
    assessment of the connections between
    disaster, conflict, and peacemaking
•   Examining lessons learned from such
    experiences
•   Standardizing the way that peace
    processes are approached in post-
    disaster scenarios.
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            What can be done
• How to overcome the different perceptions
  between
  – Needs assessment and
  – Vulnerability assessment
Needs assessments are likely to focus on the
  continued livelihood of the people (fisherman
  families need to live on the coast to make their
  living)
Vulnerability assessments are likely to focus on the
  dangers (fisherman families should abandon the
  coast, in order to avoid the hazards of hurricanes)
          Recommendations

•   Do no harm policies
•   Aid as a political tool
•   Fulfill aid promisses
•   Prudence with foreign aid personnel,
    sensitivity to local context and political
    geography


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                   Exercise
•   Find information to up-date the actual
    situation of the case studies
•   Re-assess the role of the disaster in
    changing the level of conflict
•   Is post-disaster relief still an issue in the
    conflict discussion? How so?
•   If the recommendations in Renner's article
    had been applied, how would that have
    affected the present outcome?
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                  Exercise
•   6 groups
•   2 groups on each case Aceh, Sri Lanka
    and Kashmere
•   40 minutes work
•   Debriefing: 4 minutes each group, verbal
    presentation. General discussion
• Before we finish class: short
  survey “How are we doing?”
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          How are we doing?
•   Nominate a secretary within the class,
    who will transcribe the comments in an
    anonymous format and distribute to
    everyone
•   Questions:
     –   What do you like best in the course?
     –   What improvements would you like to see
         happening in the course?
•   We will discuss the results on Tuesday
    or Wednesday
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