African Markets Focus - Databank Group Research - 15May2009

Databank Leadership OVERVIEW Group Research AFRICA MARKET FOCUS WEEKLY REPORT ON AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS MAY 15, 2009 Africa: More Markets Show Up in the Black • At the top of the All Africa Stock Markets table this week was the Nigerian Exchange with a 5% rise in its level. Other gainers were markets in Mauritius and Morocco. The Ghana Stock Exchange languished at the bottom of the table though, as financial stocks took a beating this week. • • In all, more markets have recorded positive year-to-date returns at the week’s close than at the end of the first quarter. In the black now are bourses in Mauritius, Tunisia, Egypt, South Africa and Namibia. We expect more gainers across the African markets next week. INSIDE THIS ISSUE Africa Overview Africa: More Markets Show Up in the Black …..1 AFRICA COMMISSION'S REPORT: A New Consensus for International Development Cooperation with Africa ....2 Global Commodity Market Update and Outlook Ghana Currency Market Update Ghana 7 Laggards as DSI nears 9,000 Points Kenya Almost Kshs10 billion Recovered on NSE Nigeria 1,200 Point Gain on Nigerian Market Uganda Uganda Clays up 18% Market Graphs Botswana, BRVM, Morocco… …..2 …..2 ….3 …5 …7 …8 …10 PERFORMANCE OF STOCK MARKETS ACROSS AFRICA STOCK MARKET COUNTRIES NAME All Share SEMDEX MASI All Share TUNINDEX BRVM Comp DSEI NSE 20 DCI Domestic EGX 30 ALSI JSE All Share Overall DSI CHANGE (%) WEEKLY [USD] 4.91% 3.68% 2.83% 2.66% 1.67% 0.11% -0.42% -0.48% -0.73% -1.66% -1.74% -1.79% -1.93% -2.78% -3.03% INDEX LEVEL 24796.4 1196.0 11074.6 2289.7 3372.5 135.6 1217.0 2849.5 6084.1 3931.6 5628.5 738.1 21705.1 534.6 9190.9 YTD (LC) -21.16% 1.12% 0.82% -9.82% 16.60% -23.87% -1.85% -19.08% -13.52% -18.34% 22.45% -5.28% 0.91% -3.89% -22.80% YTD (USD) -25.50% 0.62% -2.22% -17.63% 12.85% -26.95% -2.67% -16.16% -9.03% -18.87% 21.39% -15.74% 11.61% 7.13% -33.52% P/E (X) MKT CAP (US$BN) 37.73 3.26 64.64 4.93 5.12 5.61 3.59 8.57 4.58 1.53 96.12 2.55 na 138.52 11.67 LATEST INFLATION (%) 14.6 8.8 3.8 13.1 5.3 na 13.3 25.1 11.7 9.7 13.5 14 8.6 11.6 20.6 Nigeria Mauritius Morocco Zambia Tunisia BRVM Tanzania Kenya Botswana Malawi Egypt Uganda South Africa Namibia Ghana na 8.50 na 13.57 11.60 na na 10.77 11.60 12.24 5.22 12.15 na 8.70 22.48 Databank AFRICA COMMISSION'S REPORT: A New Consensus for International Development Cooperation With Africa The Africa Commission’s Report outlined five initiatives aimed at creating job opportunities for Africa’s youth; 1. The creation of an African Guarantee Fund in partnership with the African Development Bank aimed mobilizing loans for three billion USD and reducing the cost of access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, SME’s. Ensuring access to energy at the local level by launching a new initiative in partnership with the EU and the African Development Bank. Improving the business climate and Africa’s competitive edge by making sure that the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report covers all African countries. Unleashing the power of African entrepreneurship, both in start-up and existing enterprises, by providing advisory services and access to finance in order to allow young people to translate their good ideas into practical plans. The initiative will be implemented in partnership with the ILO and Youth Employment Network Supporting higher education and research. Specifically, the initiative will increase the quantity and quality of artisans through apprenticeships, especially in the rural areas. Also, it will link tertiary research and business practices especially to expanding agricultural output. GLOBAL COMMODITIES/METAL MARKET Commodity/Metal Cocoa ($, per metric tonne) Gold ($, per ounce) Coffee (cents, per lb) Oil ($, per barrel) Year Open 2,569.00 862.90 109.25 39.19 Week Open 2,458.00 915.30 126.70 57.96 Week Close 2,330.00 927.20 127.55 58.53 2. 3. 4. MUTUAL FUNDS (AS AT MAY 14, 2009) Fund Name Epa¢k Investment Fund Balanced Fund (Bid) Balanced Fund (Offer) Fund Name MFund (Bid) MFund (Offer) Price 0.7701 0.1055 0.1065 Price 0.2117 0.2138 Weekly Change (%) 0.50% -0.28% -0.37% Change (%) 0.47% -8.16% YTD Change -7.36% -10.67% 5. Annualized Yield 25.74% The report can be downloaded at http://www.africacommission.um.dk/en Global Commodity Market Update and Outlook Oil, Coffee and Gold Prices appreciated with Cocoa prices down this week on the International Commodities Market. Oil’s edged up by $0.57 to $58.53 per barrel. Gold and Coffee were also up $11.9 and 0.85 cents to $927.20 per ounce and 127.55 cents per lb respectively. Cedi Depreciation Against Major Trading Currencies 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% Cocoa however dropped $128 off its price to $2,330 per metric tonne. We believe that despite the recent price surges in oil, this is unlikely to be sustained in the face of dwindling demand. OPEC has conceded a slump in demand, blaming pure market sentiments for the rise in price. This does not however mean that prices will fall promptly back next week; as these sentiments would keep prices up for sometime till the full impact of the fundamentals step in. Ghana Currency Market Update The Ghana cedi depreciated against the dollar, pound and euro on the Interbank Market this week. The cedi depreciated by GH¢0.0040 and GH¢0.00327 to GH¢1.4090 and GH¢2.1449 against the dollar and pound respectively. The local currency also lost GH¢0.0315 against the euro to GH¢1.9152. $ £ EURO Databank GHANA MARKET STATISTICS Indicators DSI (GH ¢) DSI ($) GSE (GH ¢) Mkt Cap (GH¢’bn) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) Earnings Yield (%) Level 9,190.87 0.65 7,955.18 16.44 22.48 2.47 4.45 Change (%) -2.75% -3.03% -9.07% -2.72% -1.78 0.18 0.33 YTD (%) -22.80% -33.52% -24.05% -7.58% − − − 7 Laggards as DSI nears 9,000 Points Activity improved this week with regards to the total volume of shares traded; however aggregate turnover recorded a decline. The Databank Stock Index [DSI] lost 260 points to level off at 9,190.87 points on the back of 7 laggards. Of the number, 6 were financial stocks. Year-to-date return on the index is currently at -22.80%. A total volume of 360,286 shares, up 28%, valued at GH¢236,406 – down 57% - exchanged hands on the floor of the Ghana Stock Exchange [GSE] at the close of the week. Ghana Commercial Bank [GCB] accounted for 66% of volume and 55% of aggregate value. SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT Equity Ticker ETI FML GCB SIC EBG CAL SCB Price (GH¢) 0.35 2.50 0.52 0.28 1.97 0.29 32.29 Change (%) ▼14.63% ▼10.71% ▼10.34% ▼6.67% ▼6.19% ▼3.33% ▼0.03% YTD (%) -22.22% -44.44% -52.73% -44.00% -45.28% -51.67% -15.03% Outlook The drop on the Ghana Stock Exchange could have been steeper but for low volumes recorded due to the automation of trading on the GSE. We therefore expect correction to persist with recovery not yet in sight. Any hopes of a stem in the fall due to recovery in GCB did not stick as the stock has reversed its good fortune. The Databank Stock Index would fall below 9,000 points; for a first time since March 2008. FIXED INCOME Security 91 Day Bill (%) 182 Day Bill (%) 1 Year Note (%) 2 Year Note (%) 3 Year Bond (%) Year Open 24.66 26.18 20.00 21.00 Week Open 25.69 28.09 21.00 21.00 Week Close 25.72 28.17 21.00 21.00 - Databank Stock Index (DSI) 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 6-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 1-May-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 8-May-09 15-May-09 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 3-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 CURRENCY MARKET Currency Dollar Pound Euro Level 1.4090 2.1449 1.9152 Weekly Change (%) -0.28% -1.52% -1.64% YTD (%) -13.89% -18.00% -10.70% RETURN ANALYSIS SHEET (GH¢) Listed Equity 12 Month High (GH¢) Low (GH¢) Banking Industry (Participants, Averages) Cal Bank Ecobank Ghana Limited Ecobank Transnational Incorporated Ghana Commercial Bank HFC Bank Standard Chartered Bank SG-SSB Trust Bank Ltd (The Gambia) Non Bank Financial Services (Participants, Averages) UT Financial Services Ltd. Brewery Industry (Participants, Averages) Accra Brewery Guinness Ghana Breweries Consumer Goods Industry (Participants, Averages) PZ Cussons Super Paper Products Unilever Ghana Distribution & Trading Industry (Participants, Averages) CFAO Ghana Mechanical Lloyd Total Petroleum Gh. Ltd Ghana Oil Company Ltd Produce Buying Company Food Industry (Participants, Averages) Fan Milk Manufacturing Industry (Participants, Averages) Aluworks Camelot Ghana Cocoa Processing Company Pioneer Kitchenware Limited Sam Woode Limited Mining Industry (Participants, Averages) AngloGold Ashanti AngloGold Ashanti Ghanaian Depository Shares Golden Star Resources Insurance Industry (Participants, Averages) Enterprise Insurance State Insurance Company ICT Industry (Participants, Averages) Clydestone Transactions Solutions Ltd Agro-Processing Industry (Participants, Averages) Benso Oil Palm Plantation Golden Web Limited Pharmaceuticals Industry (Participants, Averages) Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Starwin Products Ticker Year Open (GH¢) Week Open (GH¢) Week Close (GH¢) Week-on-Week Change Year-to Date Change Market Statistics Volume Turnover (GH¢) KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS P/BVS (x) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%) 3.13 1.50 4.06 3.59 0.62 5.28 5.27 2.09 5.15 3.32 3.32 3.86 2.85 4.00 2.94 1.38 0.54 3.80 2.43 0.94 0.76 1.89 2.37 8.03 1.93 1.93 0.89 2.77 3.28 0.69 2.45 1.08 3.19 4.57 0.05 1.28 1.25 2.64 0.76 3.41 4.82 3.13 1.25 1.25 1.34 3.14 3.45 1.70 2.87 3.62 6.69 1.53 10.58 0.00 4.49 2.73 1.59 5.05 5.05 2.22 0.87 2.35 2.89 0.95 0.00 3.21 2.04 2.35 2.86 3.61 2.50 0.00 3.00 3.00 0.55 0.00 2.81 0.73 0.00 0.00 20.49 21.90 21.19 0.00 2.13 0.56 4.07 1.74 0.00 2.27 4.15 4.39 0.00 1.12 1.24 0.00 26.79 33.97 34.30 28.54 17.01 29.59 30.79 20.10 30.99 40.05 40.05 20.35 10.47 21.70 21.70 10.48 -11.25 29.49 18.13 36.69 9.00 11.86 16.77 43.69 37.86 37.86 0.94 -5.16 14.33 1.51 -22.76 30.14 -26.38 -26.08 -26.08 -27.92 12.18 12.55 12.05 -17.72 -8.30 -19.61 17.16 18.83 -13.55 17.23 19.42 7.21 Per Share Data DPS (¢) Capitalisation (GH¢) 3,837,098,070 47,889,261 397,016,563 2,371,168,788 137,800,000 78,797,263 568,176,196 156,750,000 79,500,000 P/E (x) 11.69 4.42 11.82 12.57 3.67 17.86 17.12 10.38 16.61 8.29 8.29 18.96 27.24 18.42 13.57 13.15 nm 12.90 13.42 2.56 8.47 15.95 14.16 18.37 5.10 5.10 nm nm 22.90 45.83 nm 3.59 nm nm nm nm 10.26 21.03 6.27 nm nm nm 7.31 6.64 nm 18.21 17.77 23.59 EPS (¢) BVS (¢) 0.70 4.80 2.32 1.38 0.62 38.00 1.48 1.33 0.29 1.97 0.35 0.45 0.62 27.05 0.55 1.33 CAL EBG ETI GCB HFC SCB SG-SSB TBL 0.60 3.60 0.45 1.10 0.62 38.00 0.68 1.33 0.30 2.10 0.41 0.58 0.62 32.30 0.55 1.33 0.29 1.97 0.35 0.52 0.62 32.29 0.55 1.33 -3.33% -6.19% -14.63% -10.34% 0.00% -0.03% 0.00% 0.00% -51.67% -45.28% -22.22% -52.73% 0.00% -15.03% -18.52% 0.00% 5,700 1,680 600 238,604 0 1,189 5,726 0 1,654 3,343 228 130,917 0 38,393 3,149 0 0.07 0.17 0.03 0.14 0.03 1.89 0.05 0.08 0.01 0.13 0.01 0.06 0.00 1.45 0.02 0.02 0.19 0.49 0.10 0.83 0.12 6.13 0.26 0.26 UT 0.33 0.20 0.20 0.00% -39.39% 25,122 5,024 0.02 0.01 0.06 42,146,500 321,801,976 28,686,750 293,115,226 252,794,000 30,800,000 3,244,000 218,750,000 286,122,628 9,669,968 10,520,144 106,280,368 58,852,147 100,800,000 49,461,370 49,461,370 83,141,823 20,838,956 1,046,752 58,343,791 2,333,882 578,443 11,365,713,890 10,605,545,550 30,344,916 729,823,424 122,788,700 68,008,100 54,780,600 11,520,000 2,720,000 8,800,000 27,250,315 25,752,000 1,498,315 38,103,866 34,400,000 3,703,866 0.12 2.55 0.12 1.70 ABL GGBL 0.12 2.00 0.12 1.78 0.12 1.78 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -11.00% 0 58 0 103 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.45 1.20 0.10 4.60 0.88 0.03 2.35 PZ SPPC UNIL 1.12 0.10 4.00 1.10 0.10 3.50 1.10 0.10 3.50 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -1.79% 0.00% -12.50% 0 0 56 0 0 196 0.08 -0.02 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.11 0.80 0.18 0.92 0.04 0.21 7.60 0.40 0.24 0.04 0.21 6.00 0.26 0.21 CFAO MLC TOTAL GOIL PBC 0.04 0.21 7.60 0.32 0.21 0.04 0.21 7.60 0.28 0.21 0.04 0.21 7.60 0.28 0.21 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -12.50% 0.00% 0 0 0 3,000 0 0 0 0 840 0 0.02 0.02 0.48 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.28 4.02 0.12 0.03 5.00 2.50 FML 4.50 2.80 2.50 -10.71% -44.44% 16,060 40,363 0.49 0.08 1.30 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.50 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.03 ALW CMLT CPC PKL SWL 0.61 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.50 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.50 0.16 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -18.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 1,551 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.05 0.08 0.03 0.02 30.00 0.35 3.10 30.00 0.30 3.10 AGA AADs GSR 30.00 0.35 3.10 30.00 0.31 3.10 30.00 0.31 3.10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -10.14% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.71 -1.79 -0.68 6.57 0.07 0.00 6.56 6.87 2.43 3.30 0.63 1.97 0.28 EIC SIC 3.14 0.50 2.66 0.30 2.66 0.28 0.00% -6.67% -15.29% -44.00% 0 36,600 0 10,252 0.13 0.04 0.02 0.01 1.01 0.37 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.11 CLYD TRANSOL 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.04 1.30 0.06 0.74 0.05 BOPP GWEB 1.00 0.05 0.74 0.05 0.74 0.05 0.00% 0.00% -26.00% 0.00% 940 0 696 0 0.11 -0.01 0.03 0.00 0.59 0.04 0.17 0.05 0.16 0.04 AYRTN SPL 0.16 0.05 0.16 0.05 0.16 0.05 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 23,400 0 1,170 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.03 Market with AGA Market without AGA Preference Shares Standard Chartered Bank Preference Shares 360,286 236,406 nm 22.48 3.08 2.47 15.01 2.39 -9.77 10.98 -0.04 0.02 0.20 0.01 0.44 0.20 16,437,943,137 5,802,052,671 SCB-P 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 Databank KENYA MARKET STATISTICS Indicators NSE 20 (Kshs) NSE 20 ($) Mkt Cap (Kshs’bn) Mkt Cap ($’bn) P/E (x) Week Open 2,809.62 35.31 685.03 8.61 10.64 Week Close 2,849.49 35.14 694.69 8.57 10.77 YTD (%) -19.08 -16.16 -18.64 -15.71 - Almost Kshs10 billion Recovered on NSE The NSE recorded a gain at the close of the trading week despite an up-down movement through the week. The NSE 20 was higher by 1.42% to 2,849.49 points. Year-to-date loss is at -19.08%. Total market capitalisation gained Kshs 9.66 billion to Kshs 694.69 billion [$8.57 billion]. TOP GAINERS Equity Ticker AccessKenya Sasini Rea Vipingo Mumias Housing Finance Price (Kshs) 22.75 6.30 13.95 4.45 16.55 Change ▲9.64% ▲7.69% ▲6.08% ▲5.95% ▲5.41% YTD (%) Outlook 9.64 -10.00 0.00 -34.07 -14.69 A general rise in a number of stock prices across the market indicate that the Nairobi Bourse may be about to stage a recovery after a year of a bearish market. However, this is not quite certain as investor sentiments remain not too upbeat in the face of an ongoing global economic downturn. Bulls on the market could be looking to stocks such as AccessKenya and Total for rallies next week. We expect the NSE 20 to top 2,900 points. TOP LOSERS Equity Ticker Olympia Capital Hold. CMC Eveready East Africa Sameer Africa K.C.B. Bank Price (Kshs) 8.20 11.35 2.65 5.55 19.15 Change ▼5.75% ▼5.42% ▼5.36% ▼5.13% ▼4.01% YTD (%) -18.00 -29.06 -24.29 -7.50 -18.51 NSE 20 4,000.00 3,800.00 3,600.00 3,400.00 3,200.00 3,000.00 2,800.00 2,600.00 2,400.00 2,200.00 2,000.00 6-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 1-May-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 8-May-09 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 15-May-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 3-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 RETURN ANALYSIS SHEET (Kshs) Listed Equity Year Open (Ksh) Agricultural Kakuzi Rea Vipingo Sasini Ltd Commerc.and Allied AccessKenya Group Ltd Car & Gen CMC Kenya Airways Ltd Marshalls Nation Media Group. Safaricom limited Scangroup Ltd Standard Group Ltd TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Uchumi Supermarkets Finance & Invest. Barclays Bank Centum Investment Co. Ltd CFC Stanbic Holding Diamond Trust Equity Bank Ltd Housing Finance K.C.B Bank Kenya Re-Insurance Corp National Bank National Industrial Credit Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Standard Chartered Bank The Co-operative Bank of Kenya D.Indust. & Allied Athi River Mining Ltd BOC (K) Bamburi British American Tobacco Carbacid Crown Berger E.A.Cables E.A.Portland E.A.Breweries Eveready East Africa Ltd Kenol K.Pow.& L. KenGen Mumias Olympia Capital Holdings Sameer Africa Ltd Total Unga 90.50 160.00 165.00 131.00 137.00 24.75 26.25 79.50 144.00 3.50 66.00 136.00 15.85 6.75 10.00 6.00 32.00 13.60 75.00 160.00 117.00 140.00 137.00 16.65 21.00 75.00 118.00 2.80 60.00 116.00 12.15 4.20 8.70 5.85 34.50 8.20 78.00 160.00 120.00 144.00 137.00 17.50 21.00 75.00 119.00 2.65 62.00 118.00 12.15 4.45 8.20 5.55 35.00 8.25 50.50 18.75 60.00 68.50 17.60 19.40 23.50 12.75 43.00 43.50 62.00 160.00 43.75 10.00 47.00 65.00 13.90 15.70 19.95 12.45 35.25 32.75 45.00 135.00 6.05 44.00 10.50 47.00 66.50 14.10 16.55 19.15 12.55 37.00 34.25 45.00 132.00 6.05 20.75 44.00 16.00 28.50 27.00 144.00 3.60 26.00 50.00 52.50 14.50 20.75 30.50 12.00 23.50 24.00 130.00 2.80 22.25 43.00 35.00 14.50 22.75 30.25 11.35 23.00 24.00 129.00 2.95 22.75 45.00 36.00 14.50 23.00 13.95 7.00 23.50 13.15 5.85 23.50 13.95 6.30 Week Open (Ksh) Week Close (Ksh) Week Change Year-to Date Change P/E (x) 10.10 KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS P/BVS (x) 0.89 nm nm 0.47 6.15 8.25 nm 3.73 0.62 nm 5.10 nm 7.84 13.41 0.91 nm 2.24 3.75 0.70 1.29 3.52 1.38 2.81 3.21 1.17 1.71 9.54 1.70 1.14 1.79 4.96 2.50 3.30 3.44 nm nm 5.47 1.85 5.53 nm 1.92 2.02 0.41 0.79 nm 0.80 1.30 nm Div. Yield (%) 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.04 nm 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.43 0.02 0.14 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.22 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.12 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.17 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.07 ROE (%) 8.85 nm nm (1.12) 27.45 35.16 nm 66.67 23.76 nm 30.18 nm 51.36 89.72 9.91 nm 30.89 30.72 13.53 59.23 24.97 65.81 5.44 25.01 11.31 25.95 71.59 15.83 30.79 16.73 27.11 21.28 27.21 33.14 nm nm 48.17 20.92 43.25 nm 27.09 37.21 3.70 16.25 nm 6.22 11.21 nm Capitalisation (Ksh) 2,734,349,627 460,599,977 837,000,000 1,436,749,650 172,537,502,201 4,547,396,900 673,958,384 6,613,752,144 10,617,156,132 345,434,544 18,396,757,080 118,000,000,000 3,617,250,000 3,297,376,305 3,811,130,712 2,610,000,000 180,917,597,505 59,746,896,000 5,774,494,740 12,863,157,917 10,841,967,682 5,220,915,598 3,806,500,000 38,223,400,000 7,530,000,000 7,400,000,000 10,161,714,118 2,160,000,000 12,238,551,450 236,468,689,577 7,332,000,000 3,124,071,360 43,555,113,000 14,400,000,000 1,551,765,435 415,222,500 4,252,500,000 6,750,000,000 94,102,148,364 556,500,000 9,124,919,440 9,337,104,000 26,710,091,690 6,808,500,000 328,000,000 1,544,800,281 6,055,455,000 520,498,506 0.00% 6.08% 7.69% 2.17% 0.00% -10.00% 2.43 7.27 (42.00) 22.40 9.64% -0.82% -5.42% -2.13% 0.00% -0.77% 5.36% 2.25% 4.65% 2.86% 0.00% 9.64% -31.25% -29.06% -19.30% -11.11% -10.42% -18.06% -12.50% -10.00% -31.43% 0.00% 23.45 3.92 5.59 2.59 8.16 16.88 nm 15.28 14.95 9.21 41.43 7.25 0.57% 5.00% 0.00% 2.31% 1.44% 5.41% -4.01% 0.80% 4.96% 4.58% 0.00% -2.22% 0.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.56% 2.86% 0.00% 5.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.85% -5.36% 3.33% 1.72% 0.00% 5.95% -5.75% -5.13% 1.45% 0.61% -12.87% -44.00% -21.67% -2.92% -19.89% -14.69% -18.51% -1.57% -13.95% -21.26% -27.42% -17.50% na 12.22 5.17 2.18 14.09 2.10 51.72 12.85 10.37 6.61 13.33 10.74 3.71 10.70 -13.81% 0.00% -27.27% 9.92% 0.00% -29.29% -20.00% -5.66% -17.36% -24.29% -6.06% -13.24% -23.34% -34.07% -18.00% -7.50% 9.38% -39.34% 18.31 11.75 12.11 10.39 10.00 10.06 11.35 8.83 12.78 4.42 7.09 5.43 10.95 4.89 5.54 12.91 11.57 6.30 Total Market 10.77 2.43 0.05 22.55 592,658,138,909 Databank NIGERIA MARKET STATISTICS Indicators NSE (N, points) Mkt Cap (N’bn) Volume (bn shares)* Value (N’bn)* Week Open 23,516.06 5,344 Week Close 24,796.42 5,632 0.54 2.91 YTD (%) -21.16% - 1,200 Point Gain on Nigerian Market The Nigerian market slipped in the last two days of trading this week but still return an impressive rise of 1,280.36 points in the NSE index. The level of the NSE Index is now 24,796.42 points and at year-to-date loss of -21.16%. Market capitalisation soared by N288 billion to N5,632 billion. *Volume and Value figures for Friday, 8th May and Friday, 15th May, 2009 TOP GAINERS* Outlook Equity Ticker MOBIL BCC ZENITHBANK UBN *Gainers for Friday, 15th May, 2009 Price (N) 111.33 34.80 20.56 14.38 Change (N) ▲5.30 ▲1.64 ▲0.97 ▲0.38 The NSE index is on its way down again after a good but brief rally this week. Oil distribution companies still remain the most active in terms of price movements on the market. The sector will remain the industry to watch next week. Year-to-date loss will fall back to -25%. TOP LOSERS* Equity Ticker OANDO AP GUINNESS JBERGER *Losers for Friday, 15th May, 2009 Price (N) 87.40 78.00 104.00 27.36 Change (N) ▼4.60 ▼2.90 ▼2.32 ▼1.44 TOP 5 TRADES* Equity Ticker WEMABANK ACCESS HMARKINS UBA DIAMONDBNK *Top trades for Friday, 15th May, 2009 NSE Trend Graph 33,000.00 31,000.00 29,000.00 27,000.00 25,000.00 23,000.00 21,000.00 19,000.00 17,000.00 15,000.00 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 6-Mar-09 3-Apr-09 1-May-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 8-May-09 15-May-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Feb-09 Volume 215,834,182 68,163,950 43,254,514 32,685,777 13,923,091 Value (N’bn) 0.59 0.51 0.02 0.46 0.09 Databank UGANDA Uganda Clays up 18% Week Close 738.14 0.33 5,696.04 2.55 12.15 YTD (%) -5.28 -15.74 -5.28 -15.74 - MARKET STATISTICS Indicators ALSI (Ushs) ALSI ($) Mkt Cap (Ushs ’bn) Mkt Cap ($’bn) P/E (x) Week Open 728.06 0.34 5,618.24 2.60 11.82 The All Share Index gained 1.38% to close at a level of 738.14 points as Uganda Clays and 3 cross listed stocks increased in their share prices. The year-to-date loss has therefore improved to -5.28%. Market capitalisation was higher by Ushs 77.8 billion to Ushs 5,696 billion [$2.55 billion]. GAINERS Equity Ticker Uganda Clays Jubilee Holding East African Breweries Kenya Airways Price 100 3,257 3,553 681 Change ▲17.65% ▲10.67% ▲3.50% ▲2.56% YTD (%) -20.00 5.03 -2.12 -2.71 Outlook In spite of hitches on the way, there is enough to say that the Ugandan Stock Exchange is on its way to a mild recovery by close of the second quarter. The gains are however not strong enough. The main sour point for the USE however is a steep depreciation of the Ugandan shillings against the dollar, meaning that dollar returns are worsening despite the gains in the ALSI in local currency terms. LOSERS Equity Ticker DFCU KCB Bank of Baroda Price 545 557 400 Change ▼4.39% ▼3.47% ▼1.23% YTD (%) -23.24 -3.97 -31.62 USE ALSI 850.00 800.00 FIXED INCOME Security 91 Day Bill (%) 182 Day Bill (%) 1 Year Note (%) 2 Year Bond (%) 3 Year Bond (%) 5 Year Bond (%) Year Open 11.61% 14.18% 14.97% 14.78% 17.37% 14.07% Week Open 6.06% 8.74% 10.70% 18.55% 17.37% 14.07% Week Close 6.09% 9.15% 11.19% 18.55% 17.37% 14.07% 750.00 700.00 650.00 600.00 550.00 500.00 5-Mar-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 7-May-09 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 14-May-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 CURRENCY MARKET Currency Dollar Pound Euro Week Open 2,165 3,202 2,884 Week Close 2,235 3,344 3,008 Ushs YTD(%) -11.05 -10.68 -10.67 RETURN ANALYSIS SHEET (Ushs) Listed Equity Ticker Year Open (Ushs) Week Open (Ushs) Week Close (Ushs) Week Change Year-to Date Change P/E (x) 22.96 4.56 42.73 14.81 15.90 17.23 13.03 10.39 14.61 2.95 8.94 na KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS P/BVS (x) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%) 5.35 (183.87) 8.41 4.21 2.58 3.38 6.96 2.85 5.55 0.56 1.79 na 3.31 0.22 1.77 2.44 1.79 4.49 5.73 5.75 6.69 2.47 na 23.31 (4,032.26) 19.68 28.45 16.25 19.60 53.42 27.46 37.96 18.89 20.00 na Capitalisation (Ushs) 1,161,630,112,321 27,975,600,000 90,000,000,000 160,000,000,000 135,487,471,371 57,120,000,000 691,047,040,950 3,244,789,344,932 2,813,177,200,328 314,360,144,604 117,252,000,000 na Local British America Tobbacco Uganda Clays Limited Bank of Baroda DFCU Limited New Vision Limited Stanbic Bank Uganda Cross Listed East African Breweries Limited Kenya Airways Jubilee Holding Limited KCB BATU UCL BOBU DFCU NVL SBU 880 125 585 710 1,450 140 570 85 405 570 1,120 135 570 100 400 545 1,120 135 0.00% 17.65% -1.23% -4.39% 0.00% 0.00% -35.23% -20.00% -31.62% -23.24% -22.76% -3.57% EABL KA JHL KCB 3,630 700 3,101 580 3,433 664 2,943 577 3,553 681 3,257 557 3.50% 2.56% 10.67% -3.47% -2.12% -2.71% 5.03% -3.97% Total Market 12.15 3.25 5.09 26.80 4,406,419,457,253 6000 6200 6400 6600 6800 7000 7200 1,000.00 1,050.00 1,100.00 1,150.00 1,200.00 1,250.00 10,000.00 10,500.00 11,000.00 11,500.00 9,000.00 9,500.00 900.00 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 950.00 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 Botswana Stock Exchange Casablanca Stock Exchange Stock Exchange of Mauritius MASI [Trend Graph] Databank Domestic Composite Index [Trend Graph] SEMDEX [Trend Graph] 3,500.00 3,700.00 3,900.00 4,100.00 4,300.00 4,500.00 4,700.00 4,900.00 5,100.00 5,300.00 130.00 150.00 170.00 190.00 Leadership 2,700.00 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 2,800.00 2,900.00 3,000.00 3,100.00 3,200.00 3,300.00 3,400.00 3,500.00 3,600.00 01-Jan-09 12-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 03-Feb-09 14-Feb-09 25-Feb-09 08-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 30-Mar-09 10-Apr-09 21-Apr-09 02-May-09 13-May-09 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 BRVM Com posite [Trend Graph] Domestic Share Index [Trend Graph] Africa Indices TUNINDEX [TREND GRAPH] Tunisian Stock Exchange BRVM Malawi Stock Exchange 1200 1210 1220 1230 1240 1250 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 0.00 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 Namibia Stock Exchange Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange Databank NSX Overall Index [Trend Graph] DSEI [Trend Graph] 16-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 2000 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 0 1-Jan-09 8-Jan-09 15-Jan-09 22-Jan-09 29-Jan-09 5-Feb-09 12-Feb-09 19-Feb-09 26-Feb-09 5-Mar-09 12-Mar-09 19-Mar-09 26-Mar-09 2-Apr-09 9-Apr-09 16-Apr-09 23-Apr-09 30-Apr-09 7-May-09 14-May-09 15000 30000 JSE All Share Index [Trend Graph] LuSE All Share Index [Trend Graph] Johannesburg Stock Exchange Lusaka Stock Exchange Databank Contact Information Databank Group Research Team Daniel Ogbarmey Tetteh Executive Director, Databank Asset Management daniel.tetteh@databankgroup.com Country Offices Ghana 61 Barnes Road Adabraka, Accra. Tel: +233 21 681404 Fax: +233 21 681443 research@databankgroup.com Nii Ampa-Sowa Head of Research nii.ampa-sowa@databankgroup.com Micheal Asafo-Boakye Assistant Vice President micheal.asafo-boakye@databankgroup.com The Gambia 2nd Floor Trust Bank Building West Field Junction, Serrekunda. Tel: +220 4378014 Fax: +220 4378016 gambia@databankgroup.com Doris Y. Ahiati Senior Analyst doris.ahiati@databankgroup.com Prince N.D. Abbey Senior Analyst prince.abbey@databankgroup.com Liberia 1 Urban Plaza Tubman Boulevard, Monrovia. liberia@databankgroup.com Dorothy L. Ametefe Analyst dorothy.ametefe@databankgroup.com Web Information Visit the Databank Group Website for information on other research publications, and investment products that it offers, at: http://www.databankgroup.com Sampson Y. Akligoh Analyst sampson.akligoh@databankgroup.com Disclaimer This Information has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy securities. This firm and its affiliates and their officers and employees may or may not have a beneficial interest in the securities mentioned herein. This firm and its affiliates may from time-to-time have a consulting relationship with a company being reported upon. This may involve the firm or the affiliates providing significant corporate finance services and acting as the company's official or sponsoring broker. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of that date and are subject to change without notice. Available only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investment.