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Modeling_Plan_for_the_DWSC

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					Review of DWSC Modeling-
  what should we do next?

   Russ Brown, Jones & Stokes
 DO-TMDL Technical Work Group
          May 16,2006
       DO Modeling Ingredients
•   Temperature (& DO saturation)
•   Geometry (area, depth, width)
•   Flow (cfs) and Travel Time (or distance)
•   BOD: CBOD, NBOD, SOD, Detritus
•   Algae: N/P/light/C-photosynthesis-pH
•   Reaeration f(wind)/O2 injection
     Calibration of DO Models
• Matching seasonal DO does not validate
  assumptions about model relationships,
  rates, responses, and inputs
• CBOD decay f(temperature,settling)
• SOD f(temperature, settling)
• NBOD f(temperature, nitrifying bacteria)
• Algae f(temperature,N,P, light,settling)
• Detritus f(algae decay, settling)
Purposes for DWSC DO Models
•   Basic Understanding of DWSC Processes
•   Evaluate flow and algae inflow effects
•   Determine TMDL responsibility & credits
•   Determine effects of management actions
    – Evaluate wastewater permit limits
    – Mitigation for DWSC deepening
    – Evaluate performance of oxygenation
        DWSC Models Galore!!
•   RMA 1-D link-node
•   City of Stockton 1-D link-node
•   DSM2-QUAL 1-D Lagrangian Transport
•   HydroQual 3-D with sediment fluxes
•   USGS/UC Davis/Stanford 3-D Hydro+WQ
•   Statistical long-term relationships: DO=f( )
•   RWQCB strawman report: Streeter-Phelps
  Review of DWSC DO Models-
  Corps of Engineers-RMA1988
• RMA Delta tidal hydraulic model for flows
• RMA link-node WQ model with Algae
  (N/P/light), Detritus, CBOD, Ammonia, SOD,
  temperature, DO
• 15 1-mile CSTR segments;1 month simulations
  for 7 years; time-series and longitudinal plots
• Sensitivity of inputs and coefficients; deepening
• WQ model suggested mitigation of 2,500 lb/day
  (0.2 mg/l) for deepening from 30 to 35 feet
 Review of DWSC DO Models-
 City of Stockton-Systech 1993
• Systech link-node tidal hydraulic and WQ
• Algae (N/P/light), detritus, CBOD, ammonia,
  SOD, temperature, DO
• 23 segments from HOR to Turner Cut; July 90-
  Dec 91 calibration; time-series and long plots
• Verified for 1993, 1996; CALFED improvements
  (pheophytin, re-suspension) for 1999, 2000, and
  2001
• Used to evaluate effects of flows, wastewater
  loads (ammonia), and aeration in DWSC
 Review of DWSC DO Models-
   DSM2-QUAL- DWR 2001
• DSM2-QUAL model based on 1995 PhD Thesis
  of Hari Rajbhandari
• Algae (N/P/light), CBOD, ammonia, SOD,
  temperature, DO
• DSM2-HYDRO Delta grid; 25 segments from
  HOR to Turner Cut; 1998-1999 calibration; 1996-
  2000 validation; time-series plots of Temp & DO
• 1976-1991 DSM2 planning studies can use
  selected river inputs from 1997-2001 for SJR
  Review of DWSC DO Models-
ECOMSED/RCA- HydroQual 2006
• HydroQual model based on 3-D ECOMSED/RCA
  with sediment flux
• Algae (N/P/light), CBOD, detritus, ammonia,
  sediment nutrient flux/SOD, temperature, DO
• DSM2-Delta results for tidal stage & flow; 25
  segments from HOR to Turner Cut; 3 lateral
  sections with 10 layers; 2000-2001 calibration;
  time series plots of stage, flow, and water quality
  parameters at various stations (top and bottom)
   Review of DWSC DO Models-
   USGS,UC Davis,Stanford-2007
• 20-m 3-D Hydrodynamics by Pete
  Smith,USGS; 1-m layers (800,000)
• Tidal flows and temperature stratification,
  DO model using 3-D results to be
  developed by UC Davis
• Three 1-month intensive hydrodynamic and
  water quality surveys throughout DWSC by
  UC Davis and Stanford; August 2004,
  August 2005; August 2006?
            DWSC Data Atlas
•   1984-2005 daily flow, EC, pH, T, SS, DO
•   RWCF effluent concentrations
•   Provide comparisons between years
•   Show patterns of flow, EC, DO, and algae
•   Identify basic relationships for DWSC
•   Provide model inputs and calibration data
                                                                                          DO Deficit and DWSC Flows in 2004
                                       6,000                                                                                                                              12

                                                                                                                                                                          11

                                       5,000                                                                                                                              10

                                                                                                                                                                          9




                                                                                                                                                                               Exports/Vernalis Ratio
                                       4,000                                                                                                                              8

                                                                                                                                                                          7
                          Flow (cfs)




                                       3,000                                                                                                                              6

                                                                                                                                                                          5

                                       2,000                                                                                                                              4

                                                                                                                                                                          3

                                       1,000                                                                                                                              2

                                                                                                                                                                          1

                                            0                                                                                                                             0
                                            1-Jan   1-Feb      1-Mar         1-Apr       1-May        1-Jun         1-Jul   1-Aug      1-Sep    1-Oct     1-Nov   1-Dec

                                                                          Measured Flow               Estimated Flow        Vernalis Flow      Exports/Vernalis

                                                            Stockton Flow as a Fraction of Vernalis Flow in 2004
                                 1.25



                                 1.00
                                                                                                                                                 Measured Stockton
                                                                                                                                                 flow data is very
Stockton/Vernalis Ratio




                                 0.75



                                 0.50
                                                                                                                                                 important, and
                                 0.25
                                                                                                                                                 difficult to estimate
                                 0.00
                                                                                                                                                 or model accurately
                              -0.25
                                        0             3                  6                     9               12               15
                                                                          Exports/Vernalis Ratio

                                                                             Measured     Estimated
                                                           DO in the San Joaquin River at Mossdale, 2004
                          20                                                                                                            5000

                          18                                                                                                            4500

                          16                                                                                                            4000

                          14                                                                                                            3500
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)




                                                                                                                                               Vernalis Flow (cfs)
                          12                                                                                                            3000

                          10                                                                                                            2500

                          8                                                                                                             2000

                          6                                                                                                             1500

                          4                                                                                                             1000

                          2                                                                                                             500

                          0                                                                                                             0
                          1-Jan    1-Feb   1-Mar   1-Apr    1-May   1-Jun     1-Jul       1-Aug      1-Sep    1-Oct     1-Nov   1-Dec

                                                           Min DO    Max DO           Saturated DO      Vernalis Flow



                               DO at Mossdale is usually saturated or supersaturated in summer-
                               can we estimate algae biomass from diurnal DO and pH?
                                                    Algae in San Joaquin River at Mossdale, 2004
                        250                                                                                                   5000




                        200                                                                                                   4000
Concentration ( mg/L)




                        150                                                                                                   3000




                                                                                                                                     Flow (cfs)
                        100                                                                                                   2000




                        50                                                                                                    1000




                         0                                                                                                    0
                              Jan     Feb    Mar   Apr     May        Jun   Jul   Aug     Sep      Oct   Nov   Dec      Jan

                              Chlorophyl a               Pheophytin                Algae Pigment               SJR Flow Vernalis




                                       How will the DWSC respond to SJR flow and algae?
                                       What else would you like to know about to make a
                                       better prediction of DWSC DO?
                                                    DO in the Stockton DWSC at Rough and Ready Island, 2004
                          12                                                                                                      3,000



                          10                                                                                                      2,500
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)




                          8                                                                                                       2,000



                          6                                                                                                       1,500



                          4                                                                                                       1,000



                          2                                                                                                       500



                          0                                                                                                       0
                          1-Jan    1-Feb   1-Mar     1-Apr   1-May    1-Jun    1-Jul    1-Aug    1-Sep   1-Oct    1-Nov   1-Dec

                                                   Min DO    Max DO      Saturated DO     DO Objective   Stockton Flow




                                  DWSC DO is often lowest during winter and summer low
                                  flows
                                                                                DO in the Stockton DWSC vs. Flow ,
                                                 12



                                                 10
                      Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)


                                                     8



                                                     6



                                                     4



                                                     2



                                                     0
                                                     -500   0      500        1,000             1,500            2,000      2,500   3,000   3,500   4,000

                                                                                               Min DO       Stockton Flow


                                                                DO Saturation Deficit in the Stockton DWSC vs. Flow , 2004
                                                12



                                                10
DO Saturation or DO Deficit (mg/L)




                                                8



                                                6



                                                4



                                                2



                                                0
                                                -500        0     500        1,000             1,500             2,000      2,500   3,000   3,500   4,000
                                                                                      Saturation Def icit    Saturation




                                                 DO Deficit in the DWSC appears to decrease at higher flows
DWSC Modeling of Flow, Stratification,
     Turbidity, Algae and DO
• There should be more direct interaction
  between data collection efforts and
  modeling integration and interpretation
• All potential controls of flow and sediments
  and nutrients and algae on the SJR and DO
  in the DWSC should be integrated and
  adaptively managed by a team
                        Adaptive Management of the DWSC
Natural
Environmental
Conditions                                                Calibrate
                             Observed DO                  & Revise
                             Conditions at
                             Mossdale and RRI


                                                     Tidal
                                                     Model
                                                     of
                Implement                            DWSC
                Management
                Actions
                                       Comparative
                                       Results
                                                        Sensitivity
                                                        Results
      Suggested Future DWSC
         Modeling Efforts
• Estimate daily inputs needed for DWSC
• Historic simulations of 1984-2005 (RRI)
• Update inputs & simulation for each year
• Sensitivity of stratification and DO to wind,
  sun, tides, and flow
• Determine algal dynamics (movement,
  photosynthesis, respiration) in the DWSC
       Suggested Future DWSC
          Modeling Efforts
•   Effects of increased flow (with algae)
•   Effects of RWCF ammonia on algae & DO
•   Effects of aeration and oxygen injection
•   Forecast DWSC DO for the next week
•   Your best idea goes here
•   Your other ideas go here

				
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