Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co benefits of Integrated Strategies in China

Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated Strategies in China Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine Sibold Published in Sinosphere in March 2003 Sinosphere, 6(1):40-47 share of FCV technology, which should greatly expand in the near future. In the context of globalization, the line between foreign and indigenous technologies and products is becoming more and more blurred, while the rights to the technology and the related markets gain increasing importance. The complicated and multi-layered partnerships formed among the world’s leading automakers and technology companies prove the worth of this approach. The government should encourage and assist Chinese companies to reach out in this manner by offering them special loans and credit lines. Finally, government incentives should be directed toward both the big and the small. That is, China should broaden its focus beyond the automobile (the primary focus of most developed countries) to include fuel cell buses and scooters. As the world’s most populous country, China boasts the greatest number of public buses in the world –over 226,000 in 2000 11 -- an obvious reason to give buses priority. In addition to the economic, social and environmental merits of public transportation, FCB commercialization should be easier to realize than that of private cars because buses run on fixed routes, simplifying the refueling process. FC scooters, on the other hand, require a small FC stack capacity, making their production and manufacture less technically challenging in many respects than a fuel cell car or bus. Its small size also reduces the FC scooter’s total cost. Although some Chinese urban planners favor banning all two wheelers in congested urban centers out of concerns for traffic management and passenger safety, we believe that fuel cell scooters should not be grouped for policy purposes with polluting, noisy and energy-inefficient mopeds. A scooter, by Chinese official definition, should have a maximum speed of no higher than 24 km per hour, suitable to run in China’s numerous bicycle lanes. With no emissions and low noise, FC scooters should create no undesired impact on a city’s traffic. Considering the high population density of Chinese cities, FC scooters can be a good supplementary means of transportation for the majority of urban residents. In conclusion, hydrogen FCV technology holds great promise for China in terms of energy Communication with China Energy Research Institute (2002) 11 security, environmental quality and industrial competitiveness. China has already launched a massive FCV research and develop program designed to accelerate FCV commercialization. To help achieve its goals, China can leverage these impressive efforts through increased international cooperation and a targeted program of government incentives. Project Highlight Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Co-Benefits of Integrated Strategies in China Kong Chiu, Collin Green and Katherine Sibold12 Abstract The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) program was established to build capacity in developing countries to understand, assess and pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits approaches to solving local air quality problems. EPA has partnered with experts and policy makers around the world to apply the IES approach. The program emphasizes both analytical capacity building and implementation. Rapid industrialization, economic growth and urbanization in China provide a unique and important opportunity for the IES program. This article provides an overview of the IES program in China and elaborates on an earlier, more technical Sinosphere article, “Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant Reduction and Health Improvements in Shanghai”, written by the Shanghai IES team 13. Kong Chiu and Katherine Sibold are with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Collin Green is with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The opinions and recommendations included in this article are those of the authors and do not represent official policies or positions of the United States Government, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Chen Changhong, Chen Binghen et al., Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant Reduction and Health Improvements in Shanghai, Sinosphere, Volume 5, Issue 2, November 2002. 13 12 40 Introduction A recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that China’s annual real GDP growth continues to exceed expectations 14 and is projected to stay above 7% in 2003. This is well above IMF’s projections for average growth rates in developing countries (5.2%) and countries with advanced economies (2.5%) in 15 China’s continued the same time period. economic and industrial growth has been fed by substantial energy consumption, mostly through fossil fuels. Numerous urban centers throughout the country have grown as the economy has grown. Between 1982 and 2001, China’s urban population steadily grew from 21% of the country’s total to 37%. 16 This places China’s urban population at over 450 million or more than 150% of the entire United States population. Increases in wealth have accelerated motor vehicle use and ownership, particularly in China’s cities. The increases in population density, industrialization, energy consumption and motor vehicle use have taken their toll on urban air quality in China. The country’s continued reliance on coal for energy use (70%) 17 compounds the problem. Ambient levels of particulates, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides significantly exceed World Health Organization (WHO) standards in most Chinese cities. In many instances, particulate and sulfur dioxide concentrations in China’s urban centers are among the highest in the world. As recent studies point out, emissions of these pollutants are projected to grow as China’s economic expansion continues. 18 In addition, respiratory disease is often noted as one of the leading causes of death in China, and, according to a World Bank and WHO analysis, contributes to a greater proportion of deaths in 19 China than in many developing countries. In addition to air pollutants, China’s industrialization and urbanization generate substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At 775 MMTCE 20 per year or roughly 12% of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2000, China’s annual carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion are the second largest in the World, after the United States.21 As Sinton and Fridley point out in an earlier issue of Sinosphere, China reduced its GHG emissions through efficiency improvements and 22 changes in coal use in the late 1990s. Despite these reductions, China’s long-term greenhouse gas emissions are still projected to increase as economic growth and reliance on fossil fuels continues. While local air quality and global warming appear to be separate issues for China’s environmental policy makers, significant opportunities exist for strategies that coordinate resources and efforts to address both. In many cases, integrated measures can have multiplebenefits that improve local air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There is growing recognition among academics and policy makers around the world that co-benefits to greenhouse gas mitigation, including air quality and public health improvement should be 18. Streets, David and S.T. Waldhoff. Present and Future Emissions of Air Pollutants in China. Atmospheric Environment 24 (2000). 19. World Bank, China: Issues and Options in Health Financing, August 12, 1996. P. 112. . Throughout this article, MMTCE will represent “Million Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent”. 21. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Related Environmental Information. 12 Dec. 2002. U.S. Department of Energy. 20 Dec. 2002 . 22. Sinton, Jonathan and Fridley, David. 2001. Growth in China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions is Slower Than Expected, Sinosphere, Volume 4, Issue 1, Winter 2001. 20 14. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, Washington, DC: IMF, September 2002. 15. Ibid. 16.World Bank. World Development Indicators Database, April, 2002 http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/countrydat a.html 17. Sinton, Jonathan E., David G. Fridley, Mark D. Levine, Fuqiang Yang, Zhenping Jiang, Xing Zhuang, Kejun Jiang, and Xiaofeng Liu eds. China Energy Databook, V. 5.0, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory Report LBNL-47832, May, 2001. 41 documented and captured. The opportunities for doing so are particularly pronounced in developing countries where industrialization and urbanization are rapidly increasing GHG and air pollutant emissions. • • Integrated Strategies The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) program was established to build capacity in developing countries to understand, assess and pursue opportunities for multiple-benefits approaches to solving local air quality 23 problems. The program builds on analytical methodologies that have been used in the U.S. to evaluate greenhouse gas and clean air policies. The program also supports U.S. efforts to help developing nations grow along a more efficient and environmentally friendly path. Through the IES program, EPA works with local experts and policymakers in developing countries to quantify the public health and environmental benefits of integrated strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control. To date, EPA has partnered with health and environmental specialists in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Korea and Mexico 24 and the Philippines through the IES program. In each of these countries, the IES program has sought to: • Build lasting in-country capacity for the analysis of health, environmental and GHG mitigation impacts of alternative measures and strategies. Quantify and disseminate information on key environmental, public health and GHG mitigation benefits of integrated strategies. Provide policy makers with valuable information on policy choices and technologies that have a broad range of benefits and improve the use of limited resources. Develop, test and refine effective analytical methodologies and transfer them to in-country government agencies and technical institutions. Encourage implementation of multiplebenefits strategies and incorporation of multiple-benefits approaches into environmental policy decision making. The country-driven IES approach is designed to match the particular resources, technical capacity and priorities of partner countries. In the program, an inter-disciplinary team of technical experts develops policy scenarios that include a variety of air quality measures. Increased use of clean energy technologies, switches to cleaner fuels, improvements in efficiency and management of energy demand are examples of measures that could have both air pollution and GHG benefits. Included within the scenarios is a “business as usual” or status quo estimate. The teams work to estimate the future air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions of each scenario. The projected pollutant emissions are then used to calculate the pollutant concentration levels and estimated human exposures, which, in turn, are used to estimate health effect impacts associated with each scenario. A schematic of the typical IES program phases is given in Figure 1. Factors that have contributed to the IES program’s success include: • • • • Early stakeholder and policymaker involvement. Emphasis on building in-country analytical and technical capacity. Wide dissemination of results throughout policy making circles. Continued support and follow-through to encourage implementation of measures. • • 23. Additional information on EPA’s Integrated Environmental Strategies program is available at: www.nrel.gov/icap. (EPA is currently in the process of developing a new web site for the IES program. Information on this, when it is complete, will be posted on the address cited above). . In 2003, EPA and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will launch and co-manage an IES program in the Philippines. 24 42 Planning & Initiation & Establish IES Work plan and In-Country Team(s) Develop Integrated AQ/GHG Scenarios designed to have as much influence on hostcountry policy development and implementation as possible. A detailed assessment of the program’s first phase, which was conducted in Shanghai, is given in an eralier Sinosphere article, “Benefits of Expanded Use of Natural Gas for Pollutant Reduction and Health Improvements in Shanghai” written by 26 Changhong Chen, Bingheng Chen et al. Technical Analysis Analysis Quantify AQ and GHG Impacts of Scenarios Quantify Health Effects and Benefits Quantify Economic Value of Health Benefits History of the IES Program in China The IES program in China began as an assessment of energy options and health impacts in major Chinese cities, of which Shanghai was the first. EPA originally supported this local study concept through a partnership with the World Resources Institute (WRI) and China Council of International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) in early 1999. The work was conducted in consultation with China’s State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). In April of 1999, EPA’s Administrator signed a series of Statements of Intent with the Minister of SEPA. One of these expanded the ongoing WRI-CCICED project into a broader, national assessment by creating a partnership to “Assess Benefits of Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Protect Public Health in China”. The completed Shanghai work is being replicated in Beijing (initiated in 2001) and broadened to produce a national level assessment. Reflecting the IES program’s emphasis on local capacity building, technical teams for the China IES program are based out of leading scientific and environmental institutions in both Shanghai and Beijing. Two technical teams manage the work related to the Shanghai IES program. Work on energy analysis, pollutant mitigation options and air quality modeling is conducted by the Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences (SAES) under the leadership of Dr. Changhong Chen. A team of researchers Fudan University (formerly Shanghai Medical 26. Op cit 2. Additional information on the Shanghai IES study can be found in the IES final report, The Integrated Assessment of Energy Option and Health Benefit-Full Report (December 2000) by Chen Changhong, Fu Qingyan, Chen Minghua, Chen Bingheng, Hong Chuanjie and Kan Haidong. The report is available online at: http://www.nrel.gov/icap/china_sumproj.html Policy Linkage Linkage Disseminate and Review Results Promote Implementation Figure 1. IES Program Stages Integrated Strategies in China The confluence of rapid industrialization, economic growth, and urbanization, with their consequent air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions impact has made China an important partner for the IES program. Work to link health benefits to air pollution abatement in China is not new. For example, a project described by Jia Li and David Streets in a recent Sinosphere 25 paper is consistent with IES efforts to date . The IES program adds a comprehensive process and methodology that engages policymakers from inception to completion and leaves behind sufficient analytical capacity for continued work in the future. All of the analytical work is planned and conducted by in-country experts, with assistance from the international IES community. It is a long-term program 25. Jia Li, David Streets et al. Health Benefits from Air Pollution Controls in Shanghai, The Sinosphere , Volume 4, Issue 2, Spring 2002. 43 University) conducts the analysis of air pollution health impacts and the valuation of those impacts under the leadership of Professor Bingheng Chen. In Beijing, Dr. He Kebin leads the energy and atmospheric modeling work at Tsinghua University and Dr. Pan Xia Chuan leads a team of graduate students at Beijing Medical University on the health effects work. The Beijing team will also take the lead on conducting the national level IES assessment. Technical support and coordination of the incountry teams has been provided from the United States through the assistance of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). model developed by Dr Luis Cifuentes 27 and coded in Analytica®. Concentration response (CR) values from Chinese epidemiological studies, where available, were used in the model to estimate the magnitude of health impacts in Shanghai. Where CR values for China could not be found, international parameters were adapted for the analysis. Final Results from the Shanghai IES Study The Shanghai IES study evaluated 6 scenarios (a “business as usual” base case and five energy and air pollution control scenarios) and projected emissions reductions and health benefits through 2020. GHG and air pollution reduction actions in the scenarios include efficiency improvements in industrial coal use, switching to natural gas, SO2 and NOX emission targets and a carbon tax. Depending on which policies and measures are implemented, these actions would reduce annual CO2 emissions by 9 to 47 million metric tons in 2010 and 14 to 73 million metric tons in 2020 over the base case scenario. In addition, the ancillary benefit analysis indicates 647 to 5,472 premature deaths would be avoided in 2010 through improvements in air quality from the different scenarios. Key results are summarized in Table 1 and Figure 2.28 Technical Methodology, The Shanghai Example The Shanghai project follows the general approach of prior IES studies in other countries, though the selection of specific tools and analyses was based on local capabilities and data availability. The Shanghai team developed energy utilization scenarios through 2020. Consequent pollutant emissions levels were calculated using MARKAL, the market allocation energy-emissions linear program model. The source emissions were translated into air pollution exposure levels via the University of Iowa’s ATMOS model. An earlier, industrial sources complex (ISC) type model for air dispersion was also used and developed by the SAES team, but the final study results use ATMOS output. The model estimated ambient pollutant concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10. The PM10 levels were subsequently used to estimate health impacts. Professor B. Chen and her health effects team assessed the health impacts associated with each of the energy options. The magnitude of health impacts in relation to the energy-related air pollutant PM10 was calculated using a health-based risk assessment approach. The percentage increases of mortality or morbidity per unit increase of air pollutant concentration was also examined. The calculation of results was aided by using a 27. Dr. Luis Cifuentes of the P. Catholic University in Santiago, leads the IES-Chile research team for conducting health effects analysis and economic valuation work. For additional information on the IESChile program, see “Assessing the Health Benefits of Urban Air Pollution Reductions Associated with Climate Change Mitigation (2000-2020): Santiago, Sao Paulo, Mexico City and New York” Environmental Health Perspectives. 109 (Supplement 3), 2001. 28. Op cit 14. 44 Table 1. Shanghai IES Study, Key Results (Selected Scenarios are Graphed in Figure 2.) Annual Projections, by 2010 Scenario CO2 PM10 Averted MMT MMT Deaths Reduced Reduced per yr. per yr. 9 6 647 Social Benefit ($M) Annual Projections, by 2020 Averted CO2 PM10 MMT MMT Deaths Reduced Reduced per yr. per yr. 113 14 13 1,265 Social Benefit ($M) 327 (1) EE Coal (improved efficiency in industrial coal use) (2) EE Coal & Expanded Natural Gas Utilization (3) #2 Above, plus SO 2 , NOX Targets 25 30 34 61 2,937 4,538 512 795 56 57 84 150 6,834 9,807 1,765 2,554 Figure 2. Projected Total CO2 Emissions , Shanghai 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 2005 2010 Year Base Case #1 #2 #3 Million Tons 2015 2020 45 Disseminating Results and Engaging Policy Makers Results from the Shanghai analysis have been presented at numerous domestic and international meetings. Final results of the Shanghai IES analysis were presented to and discussed by key decision makers at a one day scenarios are being examined in Beijing. These include a base case that assumes business as usual, a clean energy scenario, an industry structure transformation scenario, an energy efficiency scenario and a green transportation scenario. A summary of the scenarios is provided in Table 2. Similar to the Shanghai study, the Beijing IES program examines CO2, Table 2. Beijing IES Scenarios Scenario Clean Energy Consumption Industry Structure Transformation Energy Efficiency Green Transport Key Aspects Changeover of coal-fired industrial boilers to natural gas, use of LPG for cooking in rural residences and expanded natural gas power in grid. Reduction in steel production, cut TCE capacity of coking, slow-down growth in cement industry, petroleum industry and chemical industry. Improved residential lighting and A/C energy efficiency practices, fuel economy program in light vehicles Expanded public transportation development, slow down in private car ownership, LPG in taxis, vehicular emission standards, advanced technology vehicles. policy makers workshop in Shanghai in February of 2002. Participants included two divisions of China’s State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau, Shanghai Center for Disease Control and the Shanghai Economic Development Bureau. This was the first time many of these health experts and policy makers had seen a quantifiable linkage between energy policies and health benefits. The roundtable provided an excellent opportunity for relevant decisionmakers at both the local and national levels to meet. A similar policy makers workshop is planned for the Beijing IES study, which is expected to be completed by summer of 2003. Like the Shanghai workshop, the Beijing workshop will be part of a broad outreach program to disseminate IES results, engage policy makers and influence the development of climate and air quality friendly policies in China. NOX, SO2 and PM10 emissions over a 30-year period. Beijing IES and the 2008 Olympics An important aspect of the IES work in Beijing is its connection to the China’s efforts to make the 2008 summer games the world’s first “green Olympics”. At the time the Beijing IES energy scenarios were developed, the Beijing municipal government had already published air quality improvement policies in anticipation of the upcoming Olympic games. Many of these policies were incorporated into the energy scenarios designed by the Beijing IES team. In July of 2002, the Beijing municipal government released an Olympic action plan that provides overarching guidance on all the city’s preparations for the Olympics. The “Beijing Olympics Action Plan” includes numerous initiatives to improve urban infrastructure and environmental quality in Beijing by 2008. The Beijing IES team has been careful to make the scenarios listed in Table 2 consistent with the city’s Olympics action plan. The assumptions made in the clean energy supply, industry structure and green transport scenarios are directly relevant to the municipal government’s “Beijing Olympics Action Plan”. Preliminary results from the Beijing IES study indicate that SO2 and NOX concentrations should reach the The Beijing IES Program The Beijing study follows the same general approach as Shanghai, though specific modeling tools will be different. The LEAP 2000 model is being used to project energy utilization and air quality will be mapped using the Industrial Sources Complex (ISC) model. Five core 46 city’s goals by 2008 if all of the measures listed in the scenarios are implemented. However, additional policies and measures may be needed for the city to reach its targets for fine particles. Through these results, it is already evident that the tools and analytical techniques of the IES program can have direct bearing on policies and initiatives to improve air quality in the Beijing urban area. The city’s efforts to meet its 2008 Olympics goals provide an excellent opportunity for showcasing the IES program’s analytical and capacity building strengths. this work lie ahead, as the national level IES assessment is conducted in China. The national assessment is being designed to provide information and results that support the development of China’s 11th 5 year plan. Stakeholders and policy makers involved in the project expect the national IES assessment to play have a role in shaping the energy and environment components of that plan. Conclusions A primary goal of the IES program is to influence the formation and implementation of policies that emphasize co-benefits from reducing both greenhouse gases and air pollutants. To this extent, the Shanghai study has already had an impact on policy making in China. During the final stages of the Shanghai IES project, the study team was commissioned by the municipal government to prepare background reports for the air quality portion of Shanghai’s 10 th 5-year plan. At the February, 2002 policy makers workshop, representatives from both SEPA and the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau confirmed the IES study influenced the development of this 5-year plan. Specifically, the Shanghai IES work identified particulate control as a high priority, influenced the setting of 5-year goals for SO 2, NOX and PM10 and identified specific technologies and fuel mix goals for the Shanghai energy system. In addition, municipal officials credited the IES work for improving coordination between energy, environment and public health organizations in Shanghai. The IES program has demonstrated connections between energy policies, greenhouse gas reductions and ancillary health benefits in China. This has raised awareness among health, environment and policy experts in China on the interplay between these issues. Local air quality decisions in Shanghai have already been influenced by this work and similar results in Beijing are anticipated. For example, the early interconnection between the Beijing project and the city’s broader efforts to prepare for the 2008 Olympiad shows great promise. Even greater opportunities for policy linkages to 47 Environmental Briefing Compiled by Nuyi Tao Biodiversity and Protected Areas Input of 50 billion yuan to preserve biological diversity China was revising its national Biodiversity Conservation Action Plan, adding new regulations on biosafety, alien invasive species, and access to and benefit sharing of genetic resources, in an effort to incorporate biodiversity conservation into the exploitation of resources in west China, economic construction and development. China's National Tenth Five-Year (2001-2005) Plan for Environmental Protection specified an investment of 50 billion yuan (6.1 billion dollars) for priority biodiversity and eco-environment projects, and 10 billion yuan (1.2 billion dollars) for strengthening national basic capacity building. China will also give priority to the conservation of 17 key regions that are of crucial importance for global biological diversity protection, including 11 land areas, three wetlands and three ocean areas. Protection measures in such regions will include the establishment of nature reserves and bans on construction projects that have the potential to cause pollution and the scientific study, inspection and evaluation of biological diversity in the regions will be strengthened. By the end of last year, the number of nature reserves in China had reached 1,551, a big jump