Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
University of Pennsylvania Current Quarter Model of the United States Economy FORECAST SUMMARY by Lawrence R. Klein and Wendy Mak
At the University of Pennsylvania, in cooperation with Global Insight, we have established statistical relationships between some 75 monthly economic and financial indicators and the main entries in the quarterly national income and product accounts (NIPA). This is a purely econometric system with no personal data adjustment. We update, on a weekly basis, partial information on the United States economy from high-frequency indicators, as they become available, and revise our current (and next) quarter forecasts, on a forward rolling basis. In addition to economic forecasting at high-frequency intervals, our Current Quarter Model features the combination of GDP forecasts from three approaches -- from bridge equations of both the product (expenditure) side and the income side of the NIPA, and from regressions of GDP on the principal components of selected major indicators.
The Week’s Economic Highlights
• When the Administration refused to carry one stimulus packages after mid 2008, it was stimulus packages after mid 2008, It was too late to introduce moderation in the US and other major power economic fluctuations. Our scenarios calculation, spreading $150 billion (export) in stimuli, starting in mid 2008 and covering three quarters, does not change all negative movement into positive values, but it does appear to be capable of reducing the economic damage that we are having now. A rapid recall of troops from the Middle East has not been worked into the scenario calculations, but that might have been successful in boosting US production and employment, once again.
•
•
High Frequency Forecasts from the University of Pennsylvania Current Quarter Model (CQM)
1
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
FORECAST UPDATE OVERVIEW
Monday, November 10, 2008
This forecast incorporates the following National Income and Product Accounts: OCT 30 GDP (based on Chain 2000 Weights) for 2008Q3: -0.3% OCT 31 Personal Income and Consumption for September: 0.2%, -0.3% The latest CQM forecast incorporates new monthly economic indicators (marked in red) that were not included in the previous forecast Date Economic Indicator for Latest Prior Month Nov 03 Construction Spending September -0.3% 0.3% Nov 07 Nonfarm Payroll Employment October -240,000 -284,000 Nov 04 Auto Sales October 10.5 Million 12.5 Million Nov 07 Consumer Credit Outstanding September $6.9 billion -$6.3 billion Oct 10 Export/Import Price Index September -1.0%, -3.0% -1.7%, -2.6% Oct 15 Producer Price Index, Total & Core September -0.4%, 0.4% -0.9%, 0.2% Oct 15 Retail Sales, Total & Ex-Auto September -1.2%, -0.6% -0.4%, -0.9% Oct 16 Industrial Production September -2.8% -1.1% Oct 15 Business Inventories August 0.3% 1.1% Oct 16 Consumer Price Index, Total & Core September 0.0%, 0.1% -0.1%, 0.2% Oct 17 Housing Starts August 817,000 872,000 Oct 10 Trade Balance August -$59.1 billion -$61.3 billion Oct 29 Durable Goods Orders & Shipments September 0.9%, 0.3% -5.5%, -4.2% Nov 02 Manuf Ships, Inv, & Orders September -2.8%, -2.5%, -0.7% -3.7%, -4.3%, 0.7% Weekly forecasts of the quarterly percent change (SAAR) of Real GDP and quarterly percent change (SAAR) of the (Chain-Type) Price Index of Personal Consumption Expenditures: Real GDP PCE Price Index Official Release 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 Jul 07 2.32 0.95 3.80 4.50 Jul 14 2.22 0.74 3.80 4.50 Jul 21 1.95 0.01 4.27 6.06 Jul 28 1.95 0.01 4.27 6.06 1.89 4.21 Aug 11 1.30 0.15 5.28 4.45 -------------------------- ----------------11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11630.1 -3.03 0.08 11628.6 -3.08 0.07 11720.0 0.00 0.85 11659.6 -2.05 0.33 11591.8 -1.31 -0.47 11500.2 -4.34 -1.25 11711.1 -0.30 0.56 11601.0 -1.99 -0.39
--------------------------- ----------------121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.2 0.00 1.97 123.6 1.24 2.28 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.3 3.53 2.19 124.5 2.97 2.37
(i) Expenditure Side PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (ii) Income Side PGDP: Same as (i) % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (iii) Principal Components est. PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Average GDP Deflator % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Nominal GDP
-------------------------- ----------------14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14394.7 -0.95 2.59 14392.9 -1.00 2.58 14439.4 0.28 2.91 14409.0 -0.56 2.69 14443.0 1.35 2.06 14328.8 -1.77 1.26 14554.0 3.21 2.85 14441.9 0.92 2.06
(i) Expenditure Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (ii) Income Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (iii) Principal Components est. GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 Average Nominal GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before 14150.8 3.45 4.74
12
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
EXPENDITURE SIDE ---------------Real Gross Domestic Product 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4
Monday, November 10, 2008
2009Q1
Billions of Chained (2000) Dollars, SAAR Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand 11646.00 11727.40 11720.00 11630.09 11591.80 13608.60 12105.80 12113.30 11653.70 13653.40 12102.60 12153.00 11778.80 8341.33 1228.29 2420.72 4712.13 1702.00 1754.90 1431.80 1074.74 340.48 369.60 -50.60 2.40 -55.10 -381.30 1544.70 1926.00 2058.90 785.00 1274.40 13636.90 12063.00 12097.50 11755.20 8275.22 1182.53 2380.73 4719.24 1693.70 1729.80 1428.30 1059.55 347.02 350.50 -38.50 -0.60 -38.59 -350.00 1567.00 1916.90 2088.30 810.80 1278.90 13577.87 11935.08 11961.24 11668.23 8203.97 113.60 2310.14 4749.36 1623.01 1649.14 1367.29 992.88 344.53 328.60 -26.15 -3.39 -22.76 -292.96 1642.81 1935.77 2108.08 816.62 1291.46 13556.68 11852.25 11874.82 11641.75 8147.14 112.93 2240.79 4765.82 1595.03 1617.59 1353.19 984.75 339.72 311.70 -22.57 -1.59 -20.98 -233.05 1704.44 1937.50 2110.07 816.80 1293.27
Personal Consumption Expenditures 8316.06 Durable Goods 1237.01 Nondurable Goods 2397.94 Services 4704.35 Gross Private Domestic Investment 1754.70 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Change In Business Inventories Farm Nonfarm Net Exports Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local 1762.40 1423.10 1088.61 326.36 383.00 -10.20 6.00 -17.93 -462.00 1500.60 1962.60 2039.10 772.60 1266.70
Percent Change, Annual Rate Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand Personal Consumption Expenditures Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Gross Private Domestic Investment Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local -5.65 2.40 -0.56 8.61 -25.03 5.09 -0.79 1.93 5.85 -0.25 -1.69 2.47 -5.00 18.47 -13.28 12.28 -7.25 3.94 6.58 2.45 -5.60 -0.97 -5.53 7.91 -19.12 5.90 -1.88 5.84 13.81 1.42 -17.39 -16.02 -22.89 -2.83 -22.74 20.80 4.00 3.84 2.90 3.99 -7.44 -4.06 -3.24 -5.47 -19.04 15.87 0.36 0.38 0.09 0.56 0.87 0.63 0.09 0.12 0.89 0.86 -4.27 -0.37 2.44 2.83 1.32 -0.11 1.32 4.36 1.22 -2.79 3.85 0.66 -0.25 -0.48 -1.30 -1.81 -0.80 -3.13 -14.09 -6.45 0.61 -3.03 -1.72 -4.17 -4.43 -2.93 -3.40 -99.99 -11.34 2.58 -1.31 -0.62 -2.75 -2.86 -0.90 -2.74 -2.34 -11.48 1.39
13
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
EXPENDITURE SIDE ---------------Nominal Gross Domestic Product 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4
Monday, November 10, 2008
2009Q1
Billions of Dollars, SAAR Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand 14150.80 14294.50 14429.20 14394.71 14442.96 16677.30 14856.60 14882.20 14176.40 16935.90 15012.70 15088.70 14370.50 17117.00 15135.80 15198.20 14491.50 17166.55 15097.73 15130.07 14427.05 17274.90 15133.33 15161.38 14471.01
Personal Consumption Expenditures10002.33 10138.01 10190.70 10159.67 10175.73 Durable Goods 1071.05 1059.27 1018.31 97.35 96.66 Nondurable Goods 2950.73 3026.25 3050.36 2971.29 2908.95 Services 5980.56 6052.50 6122.04 6209.99 6290.39 Gross Private Domestic Investment 2056.10 Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Change In Business Inventories Farm Nonfarm Net Exports Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local 2081.70 1553.60 1030.90 522.73 528.10 -25.60 0.20 -25.83 -705.70 1820.80 2526.50 2798.10 1026.50 1771.60 2000.90 2077.00 1571.90 1022.07 549.83 505.00 -76.00 -4.10 -71.89 -718.20 1923.20 2641.40 2873.70 1056.10 1817.60 1999.40 2061.70 1584.10 1013.93 570.21 477.60 -62.30 -8.70 -53.66 -706.70 1981.10 2687.80 2945.80 1097.80 1848.00 1946.06 1978.39 1530.71 954.68 576.03 447.68 -32.34 -4.19 -28.15 -703.02 2068.82 2771.84 2992.00 1110.75 1881.25 1925.71 1953.76 1528.20 951.05 577.15 425.56 -28.05 -1.98 -26.07 -690.37 2141.57 2831.94 3031.89 1123.56 1908.32
Percent Change, Annual Rate Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand Personal Consumption Expenditures Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Gross Private Domestic Investment Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local 3.45 4.68 3.54 3.66 3.58 4.51 -4.35 6.27 5.33 -6.74 -5.87 3.02 -0.97 11.49 -26.99 14.63 11.89 8.30 11.79 6.34 4.12 6.35 4.27 5.67 5.59 5.54 -4.33 10.64 4.90 -10.31 -0.90 4.80 -3.38 22.40 -16.38 24.47 19.47 11.25 12.04 10.80 3.82 4.35 3.32 2.93 3.41 2.10 -14.59 3.23 4.68 -0.30 -2.91 3.14 -3.15 15.67 -20.00 12.60 7.21 10.42 16.75 6.86 -0.95 1.16 -1.00 -1.78 -1.77 -1.21 -99.99 -9.97 5.87 -10.25 -15.21 -12.82 -21.40 4.14 -22.80 18.92 13.11 6.42 4.80 7.39 1.35 2.55 0.95 0.83 1.22 0.63 -2.79 -8.13 5.28 -4.12 -4.89 -0.65 -1.51 0.78 -18.35 14.83 8.96 5.44 4.69 5.88
14
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
EXPENDITURE SIDE ---------------Gross Domestic Product Chain-Type Price Index 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4
Monday, November 10, 2008
2009Q1
Index 2000=100 Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand Personal Consumption Expenditures Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Gross Private Domestic Investment Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local 121.61 122.55 122.82 122.86 121.65 120.28 86.58 123.06 127.13 117.82 118.12 109.18 94.70 160.18 137.90 121.40 128.72 137.24 132.88 139.87 121.95 124.04 124.10 124.16 122.01 121.54 86.24 125.02 128.45 117.93 118.35 109.79 95.10 161.50 136.69 124.56 137.14 139.59 134.55 142.63 123.20 125.52 125.56 125.64 123.28 123.15 86.11 128.13 129.73 118.59 119.19 110.91 95.70 164.33 136.26 126.50 140.21 141.07 135.41 144.51 123.77 126.43 126.50 126.49 123.64 123.84 85.70 128.62 130.75 119.90 119.97 111.95 96.15 167.19 136.24 125.93 143.19 141.93 136.02 145.67 124.60 127.43 127.68 127.68 124.30 124.90 85.60 129.82 131.99 120.73 120.78 112.93 96.58 169.89 136.53 125.65 146.17 143.69 137.55 147.56
Percent Change, Annual Rate Gross Domestic Product Total Demand Domestic Demand Domestic Final Demand Final Demand Personal Consumption Expenditures Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Services Gross Private Domestic Investment Fixed Investment Nonresidential Equipment and Software Structures Residential Exports Imports Government Purchases Federal State and Local 2.63 4.02 3.51 3.54 2.66 3.61 -0.08 6.66 2.82 -0.49 -0.24 0.60 -0.41 2.65 -2.58 9.06 12.79 6.25 5.64 6.60 1.12 4.96 4.24 4.29 1.17 4.26 -1.58 6.53 4.21 0.38 0.80 2.26 1.70 3.32 -3.47 10.84 28.82 7.03 5.14 8.15 4.17 4.85 4.77 4.84 4.25 5.40 -0.59 10.34 4.05 2.28 2.85 4.15 2.53 7.19 -1.23 6.36 9.26 4.33 2.58 5.37 1.86 2.93 3.03 2.75 1.17 2.25 -1.91 1.52 3.19 4.47 2.63 3.81 1.92 7.16 -0.07 -1.77 8.79 2.45 1.81 3.25 2.69 3.19 3.80 3.80 2.15 3.47 -0.47 3.78 3.83 2.80 2.75 3.55 1.78 6.62 0.86 -0.90 8.57 5.04 4.59 5.29
15
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
INCOME SIDE ----------GDP, National Income and Personal Income 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4
Monday, November 10, 2008
2009Q1
Billions of Current Dollars, SAAR Gross Domestic Product Plus: Receipts of Factor Income Less: Payments of Factor Income Equals: Gross National Product Less: Consumption of Fixed Capital Equals: Net National Product 14150.80 14294.50 14429.20 14392.86 14328.79 843.20 705.10 822.80 708.90 802.44 710.17 818.19 722.84 833.65 735.11
14289.00 14408.30 14521.47 14488.21 14427.34 1778.00 1803.10 1900.20 1909.97 1911.54
12511.10 12605.20 12621.27 12578.56 12515.84 1025.76 103.20 63.40 50.64 1039.35 102.10 98.40 50.81 1037.97 92.80 91.18 50.42 1043.11 88.67 84.66 50.17 1047.54 85.06 78.78 49.86
Indirect Business Taxes Business Transfers Statistical Discrepancy Net Subsidies National Income Corporate Profits Net Interest Contribution for Soc. Ins. Personal Employer Personal Interest Income Personal Dividend Income Government Transfers Business Transfers (to persons) Personal Income
12447.60 12506.90 12568.90 12493.90 12437.07 1593.50 662.30 992.20 515.75 476.45 1224.60 829.50 1745.82 32.20 1533.30 683.40 997.00 518.30 478.70 1208.70 843.60 1893.86 32.40 1521.67 695.01 1002.18 521.05 481.13 1232.30 838.30 1830.10 41.50 1514.02 702.16 1002.32 521.60 480.72 1210.51 805.76 1865.44 38.65 1502.77 709.00 1004.37 521.60 482.77 1158.42 803.63 1882.86 40.02
11960.50 12188.90 12219.90 12120.16 12029.86 Percent Change, Annual Rate
Gross Domestic Product Plus: Receipts of Factor Income Less: Payments of Factor Income Equals: Gross National Product Less: Consumption of Fixed Capital Equals: Net National Product
3.45 -25.44 -18.46 2.63 4.49 2.37 -0.74 0.39 0.76 -4.30 -14.18 7.13 8.19 6.00 -5.70 8.10 9.99 -10.44 3.01
4.12 -9.33 2.17 3.38 5.77 3.04 5.41 -4.20 1.92 -14.28 13.37 1.95 1.99 1.91 -5.09 6.97 38.48 2.51 7.86
3.82 -9.54 0.72 3.18 23.34 0.51 -0.53 -31.75 2.00 -3.00 6.97 2.09 2.14 2.04 8.04 -2.49 -12.80 169.16 1.02
-1.00 8.08 7.33 -0.91 2.07 -1.35 2.00 -16.64 -2.37 -2.00 4.18 0.06 0.42 -0.34 -6.89 -14.65 7.95 -24.80 -3.22
-1.77 7.78 6.96 -1.67 0.33 -1.98 1.71 -15.34 -1.81 -2.94 3.96 0.82 0.00 1.72 -16.13 -1.05 3.79 15.02 -2.95
Indirect Business Taxes Business Transfers National Income Corporate Profits Net Interest Contribution for Social Insurance Personal Employer Personal Interest Income Personal Dividend Income Government Transfers Business Transfers (to persons) Personal Income
16
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
GDP, National Income and Personal Income Components of Personal Income 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 Billions of Current Dollars, SAAR Wages and Salaries Commod Prod Industries Manufacturing Others Distributive Industries* Service Industries Government Other Labor Income Proprietors Income Farm Business and Profess. Rental Income of Persons Interest Paid by Persons Other Interest Transfer Payments Contributions for Social In Personal Tax & Nontax P. Disposable Income Addendum: Domestic Final Sales 6518.00 1217.70 748.40 469.30 1050.40 3140.20 1109.70 1491.70 1071.70 41.60 1030.10 39.10 261.70 962.90 1778.10 515.75 1534.98 6568.60 1216.30 748.50 467.80 1049.30 3179.70 1123.40 1503.10 1076.90 38.00 1039.00 58.60 253.80 954.90 1926.30 518.30 1354.09 6623.20 1223.70 749.20 474.50 1051.30 3210.10 1138.20 1512.40 1080.00 31.20 1048.80 64.30 255.10 977.20 1871.60 521.05 1487.52 6535.16 1108.90 655.81 453.10 1037.58 3240.17 1148.39 1521.25 1083.70 30.60 1053.10 60.42 256.98 953.52 1908.95 521.60 1536.24 6464.96 1017.62 604.93 412.69 1016.08 3271.90 1159.20 1531.32 1090.33 30.74 1059.59 62.66 259.83 898.59 1926.94 521.60 1530.57
Monday, November 10, 2008
2009Q1
10425.50 10834.80 10732.40 10583.93 10499.29
14882.3
15084.6
15189.6
15128.2
15047.2
Percent Change, Annual Rate Wages and Salaries Commod Prod Industries Manufacturing Others Distributive Industries* Service Industries Government Other Labor Income Proprietors Income Farm Business and Profess. Rental Income of Persons Interest Paid by Persons Other Interest Transfer Payments Contribution for Social Ins Personal Tax & Nontax P. Disposable Income Addendum: Domestic Final Sales 3.29 -0.16 -0.96 1.12 0.80 4.36 6.60 4.46 -0.78 -39.15 1.33 5.28 -19.98 -1.28 9.60 8.19 3.85 2.89 3.14 -0.46 0.05 -1.27 -0.42 5.13 5.03 3.09 1.96 -30.38 3.50 404.53 -11.54 -3.28 37.74 1.99 -39.44 16.65 3.37 2.46 0.37 5.85 0.76 3.88 5.37 2.50 1.16 -54.56 3.83 44.96 2.06 9.67 -10.88 2.14 45.63 -3.73 -5.21 -32.57 -41.29 -16.86 -5.12 3.80 3.63 2.36 1.38 -7.47 1.65 -22.03 2.99 -9.34 8.22 0.42 13.76 -5.42 -4.23 -29.08 -27.60 -31.18 -8.04 3.97 3.82 2.68 2.47 1.87 2.49 15.63 4.50 -21.13 3.82 0.00 -1.47 -3.16
3.50
5.55
2.81
-1.61
-2.12
*Distributive Industries are Transportation, Public Utilities excluding the U.S. Postal Service, and Wholesale and Retail Trade
17
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS for PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, and CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08 DEC08 JAN09 FEB09 MAR09
RETAIL SALES (RS), Billions of Current Dollars, SA RS,Total Retail Sales RS, Durable Goods Stores RS, Bldg Materals, Hardware RS, Auto Dealers RS, Furn, Home Furn & Equip RS, Nondurable Goods Stores RS, Food Stores RS, Gas Service Stations RS, Apparel and Accessories RS, New Domestic Cars, SAA RS, New Dom Light Trucks,SAA 343.10 112.99 27.94 66.30 9.25 223.60 49.53 45.35 19.15 4.44 4.62 341.42 113.19 27.37 67.46 9.05 222.43 49.84 43.98 19.24 4.49 5.93 337.22 110.14 27.20 64.93 8.84 221.43 49.60 44.01 18.80 4.32 5.21 341.48 110.14 27.20 64.93 8.84 221.43 49.60 44.01 19.18 3.69 4.04 336.00 110.74 25.52 63.79 8.34 219.39 48.05 41.60 17.78 3.60 4.04 334.75 110.18 24.73 62.62 8.20 218.68 47.16 40.98 17.38 3.45 3.88 334.16 109.64 23.92 61.53 8.06 217.44 46.30 40.06 16.97 3.29 3.80 333.51 109.23 23.02 60.56 7.92 216.57 45.46 39.49 16.57 3.18 3.62 332.77 108.81 22.15 59.38 7.77 215.37 44.59 38.63 16.17 3.07 3.44
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, Billions of Current Dollars, NSA Federal Govt Total Outlays Federal Govt Debt Outstanding 285.70 268.57 243.72 271.59 258.13 251.26 278.04 257.98 255.99 9524.05 9584.09 9960.59 ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* HOUSING STARTS, Millions, SAAR Housing Starts, Total 0.9490 0.8720 0.8170 0.8403 0.8055 0.8162 0.7999 0.7906 0.7935
NEW CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE, Billions of Current Dollars, SAAR New New New New Const, Const, Const, Const, Residential Bldgs Nonresident Bldgs Federal Government State & Local Govt 334.49 417.03 23.87 284.62 340.81 410.28 24.48 287.95 336.50 415.15 22.76 285.67 336.31 415.09 23.74 286.80 336.93 413.02 24.10 290.16 334.45 413.13 24.20 291.20 335.20 412.01 24.30 292.26 333.59 411.68 24.37 293.40 335.30 410.53 24.48 294.55
Percent Change, Monthly Rate RETAIL SALES (RS) RS, Total Retail Sales RS, Durable Goods Stores RS, Bldg Materials, Hardware RS, Auto Dealers RS, Furn, Home Furn & Equip RS, Nondurable Goods Stores RS, Food Stores RS, Gas Service Stations RS, Apparel and Acessories RS, New Domestic Cars, SAAR RS, New Dom Light Trucks, SA -0.73 -2.52 0.35 -4.19 -0.67 0.12 0.25 0.04 0.42 -8.96 -8.77 -0.49 0.17 -2.05 1.75 -2.15 -0.52 0.64 -3.02 0.49 1.19 28.43 -1.23 -2.69 -0.62 -3.75 -2.33 -0.45 -0.49 0.07 -2.30 -3.81 -12.16 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.04 -14.72 -22.44 -1.60 0.55 -6.16 -1.75 -5.72 -0.92 -3.12 -5.49 -7.33 -2.19 -0.09 -0.37 -0.51 -3.09 -1.85 -1.68 -0.32 -1.84 -1.48 -2.25 -4.19 -3.86 -0.18 -0.48 -3.27 -1.73 -1.70 -0.57 -1.83 -2.25 -2.32 -4.64 -2.06 -0.19 -0.38 -3.78 -1.58 -1.76 -0.40 -1.82 -1.42 -2.36 -3.55 -4.86 -0.22 -0.39 -3.78 -1.96 -1.84 -0.55 -1.92 -2.18 -2.42 -3.26 -5.01
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Federal Govt Total Outlays Federal Govt Debt Outstanding 35.95 0.97 -6.00 0.63 -9.25 3.93 11.43 0.60 -4.96 0.67 -2.66 1.46 10.66 0.52 -7.21 0.91 -0.77 1.42
HOUSING STARTS Housing Starts, Total -12.86 -8.11 -6.31 2.85 -4.13 1.32 -2.00 -1.17 0.37
NEW CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE New New New New Const, Const, Const, Const, Residential Bldgs Nonresidential Bldgs Federal Government State & Local Govt -6.16 -1.63 4.28 0.46 1.89 -1.62 2.58 1.17 -1.27 1.19 -7.04 -0.79 -0.06 -0.02 4.30 0.40 0.19 -0.50 1.53 1.17 -0.74 0.03 0.41 0.36 0.23 -0.27 0.42 0.37 -0.48 -0.08 0.28 0.39 0.51 -0.28 0.43 0.39
18
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS for GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT and NET EXPORTS JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08 DEC08 JAN09 FEB09 MAR09
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, Index 2002=100, SA Industrial Production, Total 111.44 110.36 107.25 106.52 106.26 105.89 105.81 105.92 106.07
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS/INVENTORIES/ORDERS, Billions of Current Dollars, SA Manufacturers' New Orders Manufacturers' Shipments Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders 462.99 462.38 824.23 443.20 445.46 826.53 431.99 432.94 829.51 437.61 436.55 833.02 432.57 430.98 842.10 426.95 423.38 847.38 417.66 416.29 852.62 406.83 408.41 857.36 400.38 399.05 862.23
MANUFACTURED DURABLE GOODS, Billions of Current Dollars, SA Nondefense Capital Goods Shipmt 69.05 66.80 67.80 68.42 67.96 66.75 66.49 65.71 65.75
BUSINESS INVENTORIES, Billions of Current Dollars, SA Inventories, Manufacturers Inventories, Merchant Wholesale Inventories, Retail Traders 559.07 441.82 506.86 562.78 444.55 503.93 558.69 444.18 505.54 561.47 447.99 507.67 571.62 456.00 508.81 574.24 458.88 510.86 576.66 460.95 512.43 579.04 462.76 514.37 581.33 465.45 516.17
U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE, Millions of Current Dollars, SA Exports, Imports, Exports, Imports, FAS CIF Mach and Transp Equipm Mach and Transp Equipm 121662 193922 42534 65366 118716 187908 42097 59118 121190 192336 42995 62637 123019 193709 43172 63452 124527 192714 43402 61990 125879 195911 43685 63056 126611 195569 43868 64497 128164 196885 44158 63648 128626 198768 44405 64539
Percent Change, Monthly Rate INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial Production, Total -0.02 -0.96 -2.81 -0.69 -0.24 -0.35 -0.08 0.11 0.14
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS/INVENTORIES/ORDERS Manufacturers' New Orders Manufacturers' Shipments Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders 0.74 1.43 0.76 -4.28 -3.66 0.28 -2.53 -2.81 0.36 1.30 0.83 0.42 -1.15 -1.27 1.09 -1.30 -1.76 0.63 -2.17 -1.68 0.62 -2.60 -1.89 0.56 -1.58 -2.29 0.57
MANUFACTURED DURABLE GOODS Nondefense Capital Goods Shipmt 1.25 -3.26 1.51 0.91 -0.67 -1.78 -0.39 -1.17 0.06
BUSINESS INVENTORIES Inventories, Manufacturers Inventories, Merchant Wholesale Inventories, Retail Traders 0.62 1.53 1.35 0.66 0.62 -0.58 -0.73 -0.08 0.32 0.50 0.86 0.42 1.81 1.79 0.22 0.46 0.63 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.31 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.58 0.35
U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE Exports, Imports, Exports, Imports, FAS CIF Mach and Transp Equip Mach and Transp Equip 3.97 3.80 1.75 5.69 -2.42 -3.10 -1.03 -9.56 2.08 2.36 2.13 5.95 1.51 0.71 0.41 1.30 1.23 -0.51 0.53 -2.30 1.09 1.66 0.65 1.72 0.58 -0.17 0.42 2.29 1.23 0.67 0.66 -1.32 0.36 0.96 0.56 1.40
19
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS for CHAIN PRICE INDEXES JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08
Monday, November 10, 2008
DEC08
JAN09
FEB09
MAR09
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI), 1982-1984=100, SA CPI, All Urban Consumers CPI, Durables CPI, Furniture CPI, Housekeeping Supplies CPI, Nondurables CPI, Apparel and Upkeep CPI, Food and Beverages CPI, Motor Oil, Fuel, CPI, Services CPI, New cars 219.18 111.43 124.62 176.20 215.07 119.57 215.54 334.73 257.27 135.30 218.88 111.14 124.78 176.51 213.12 120.16 216.78 320.65 257.64 134.55 218.81 110.51 125.50 178.53 212.58 120.01 218.00 317.96 257.66 133.57 219.52 110.11 125.40 179.51 213.83 120.13 219.11 322.88 258.42 133.42 220.18 109.82 125.16 180.47 213.08 120.32 220.22 320.19 259.18 133.44 221.03 109.65 125.04 181.41 213.43 120.51 221.33 317.18 259.96 133.46 221.74 109.58 125.05 182.34 213.11 120.71 222.43 317.84 260.75 133.58 222.65 109.51 125.08 183.26 213.64 120.91 223.52 321.31 261.55 133.74 223.40 109.39 125.22 184.16 213.92 121.11 224.61 323.06 262.37 133.92
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI), 1982=100, SA PPI, Finished Goods PPI, Capital Equipment PPI, Intermediate Materials PPI, Components for Construction 183.90 154.30 201.40 209.80 182.20 154.50 199.40 213.00 181.50 155.20 197.10 214.40 182.55 155.84 197.70 215.73 183.29 156.37 197.95 216.85 184.69 156.95 198.19 217.69 185.54 157.52 198.69 218.53 186.60 158.07 199.13 219.47 187.23 158.62 199.87 220.35
PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS, Index, 1910-14=100, SA Index of Prices Recvd by Farmer 1012.00 992.00 980.00 919.00 920.88 927.29 933.05 947.81 950.57
U.S. EXPORT/IMPORT PRICES, Index, 1995=100, SA U.S. Export Price Index U.S. Import Price Index Percent Change, Monthly Rate CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) CPI, All Urban Consumers CPI, Durables CPI, Furniture CPI, Housekeeping Supplies CPI, Nondurables CPI, Apparel and Upkeep CPI, Food and Beverages CPI, Motor Oil, Fuel CPI, Services CPI, New Cars 0.82 0.15 0.50 0.35 1.10 1.24 0.90 4.08 0.55 0.23 -0.14 -0.26 0.12 0.17 -0.90 0.49 0.57 -4.21 0.14 -0.56 -0.03 -0.56 0.58 1.15 -0.25 -0.13 0.56 -0.84 0.01 -0.73 0.32 -0.36 -0.08 0.55 0.59 0.11 0.51 1.55 0.29 -0.11 0.30 -0.27 -0.19 0.53 -0.35 0.15 0.51 -0.83 0.30 0.01 0.39 -0.16 -0.09 0.52 0.17 0.16 0.50 -0.94 0.30 0.02 0.32 -0.06 0.00 0.51 -0.15 0.17 0.50 0.21 0.30 0.09 0.41 -0.07 0.02 0.50 0.25 0.17 0.49 1.09 0.31 0.12 0.34 -0.11 0.11 0.49 0.13 0.17 0.49 0.54 0.31 0.13 128.00 147.60 125.80 143.80 124.60 139.50 124.95 137.68 124.83 136.97 124.80 136.77 125.32 136.81 125.44 136.95 125.70 137.15
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) PPI, PPI, PPI, PPI, Finished Goods Capital Equipment Intermediate Materials Components for Construction 1.21 0.78 2.70 1.75 -0.92 0.13 -0.99 1.53 -0.38 0.45 -1.15 0.66 0.58 0.41 0.30 0.62 0.41 0.34 0.13 0.52 0.76 0.37 0.12 0.39 0.46 0.37 0.25 0.38 0.57 0.35 0.22 0.43 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.40
PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS Index of Prices Recvd by Farmer 0.80 -1.98 -1.21 -6.22 0.20 0.70 0.62 1.58 0.29
U.S. EXPORT/IMPORT PRICES U.S. Export Price Index U.S. Import Price Index 1.51 1.44 -1.72 -2.57 -0.95 -2.99 0.28 -1.31 -0.10 -0.51 -0.02 -0.15 0.42 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.21 0.14
20
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
MONTHLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS for PERSONAL INCOME JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08
Monday, November 10, 2008
DEC08
JAN09
FEB09
MAR09
EMPLOYEES (EMP) on Nonfarm Payrolls, Millions, SA EMP, Total EMP, Manufacturing EMP, Services EMP, Wholesale and Retail Trade EMP, Government EMP, Federal Government EMP, State and Local Governme Total Unemployed, Millions 137.550 137.423 137.139 136.899 136.204 136.162 136.143 136.138 136.150 13.487 13.426 13.370 13.280 13.215 13.187 13.161 13.141 13.129 116.113 116.056 115.855 115.747 115.130 114.710 114.327 113.949 113.596 21.320 21.282 21.235 21.176 21.102 21.090 21.071 21.066 21.055 22.502 2.019 21.437 8.784 22.514 2.025 21.367 9.376 22.473 2.031 21.284 9.477 22.496 2.039 21.152 10.080 22.593 2.034 21.112 9.922 22.618 2.034 21.078 10.034 22.644 2.034 21.050 10.233 22.669 2.035 21.030 10.381 22.696 2.035 21.015 10.469
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (AWH) of Production Workers, SA AWH, Total Private AWH, Manufacturing AWH, Services AWH, Wholesale and Retail Trade 33.70 41.00 30.00 38.40 33.70 40.90 30.00 38.30 33.60 40.60 30.10 38.10 33.60 40.60 29.90 38.30 33.63 40.60 29.56 38.02 33.60 40.58 29.53 37.97 33.61 40.56 29.53 38.00 33.60 40.57 29.53 38.00 33.58 40.59 29.51 37.98
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE) of Prodution Workers, Current Dollars, SA AHE, Manufacturing AHE, Services AHE, Wholesale and Retail Trade 17.78 12.90 20.16 17.76 12.93 20.29 17.80 12.91 20.23 17.85 12.89 20.23 17.07 12.27 20.20 16.81 12.08 20.22 16.55 11.90 20.29 16.29 11.71 20.35 16.03 11.53 20.37
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS (AWE) of Production Workers, Current Dollars AWE, Total Private Percent Change, Monthly Rate EMPLOYEES (EMP) ON NONFARM PAYROLLS EMP, Total EMP, Manufacturing EMP, Services EMP, Wholesale and Retail Trade EMP, Government EMP, Federal Government EMP, State and Local Governme Total Unemployed, Millions -0.049 -0.296 -0.011 -0.183 0.174 0.298 -0.251 3.353 -0.092 -0.452 -0.049 -0.178 0.053 0.297 -0.327 6.740 -0.207 -0.417 -0.173 -0.221 -0.182 0.296 -0.388 1.077 -0.175 -0.673 -0.093 -0.278 0.102 0.394 -0.620 6.363 -0.508 -0.489 -0.533 -0.351 0.433 -0.225 -0.188 -1.568 -0.031 -0.215 -0.365 -0.054 0.110 -0.009 -0.161 1.133 -0.014 -0.194 -0.334 -0.093 0.115 -0.007 -0.133 1.975 -0.003 -0.149 -0.330 -0.023 0.112 0.032 -0.094 1.453 0.009 -0.098 -0.310 -0.050 0.116 0.034 -0.071 0.844 608.62 611.32 610.51 611.86 609.99 609.25 609.09 608.81 608.55
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (AWH) OF PRODUCTION WORKERS AWH, Total Private AWH, Manufacturing AWH, Services AWH, Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.26 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.26 -0.30 -0.73 0.33 -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.52 0.08 -0.00 -1.14 -0.73 -0.07 -0.06 -0.09 -0.12 0.01 -0.04 -0.00 0.08 -0.04 0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.06 0.04 -0.07 -0.05
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE) OF PRODUCTION WORKERS AHE, Manufacturing AHE, Services AHE, Wholesale and Retail Trade 0.40 0.00 0.20 -0.11 0.23 0.64 0.23 -0.15 -0.30 0.28 -0.15 0.00 -4.35 -4.82 -0.13 -1.53 -1.53 0.09 -1.55 -1.50 0.33 -1.57 -1.57 0.31 -1.59 -1.55 0.11
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS (AWE) OF PRODUCTION WORKERS AWE, Total Private 0.33 0.44 -0.13 0.22 -0.31 -0.12 -0.03 -0.05 -0.04
21
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
MONTHLY FINANCIAL INDICATORS JUL08 AUG08 SEP08 OCT08 NOV08
Monday, November 10, 2008
DEC08
JAN09
FEB09
MAR09
MONEY SUPPLY, Billions of Dollars, SA Money Supply (M1) Money Supply (M2) Money Supply (M3) 1403.4 7679.5 7679.5 1394.0 7669.9 7669.9 1453.9 7769.0 7769.0 1468.3 7843.1 7843.1 1477.6 7889.1 7889.1 1492.4 7945.7 7945.7 1503.0 7991.3 7991.3 1514.2 8036.5 8036.5 1531.5 8089.4 8089.4
INTEREST RATES (IR), Percent Per Annum IR, Treasury Bill, 6 Month IR, Commercial Paper, 2 month Yields, US Govt Bond, 1 year Yileds, US Govt Bond, 10 Year 1.98 2.13 2.28 4.01 1.97 2.08 2.18 3.89 1.64 2.11 1.91 3.69 1.23 1.82 1.42 3.81 1.11 2.12 1.29 3.94 1.04 2.12 1.35 3.92 0.96 2.12 1.47 3.89 0.92 2.12 1.58 3.89 0.88 2.12 1.58 3.89
FOREIGN EXCHANGE VALUE, March 1973=100 Weighted Average Value of US$ 95.40 97.93 100.30 106.94 101.66 101.99 102.28 102.57 102.85
STOCK MARKET New York Stock Exchange Index Dividend to (Stock) Price Ratio 8427.4 2.28 8362.2 2.23 7886.3 2.36 6130.4 2.83 5706.1 2.39 5609.2 2.38 5592.7 2.36 5596.1 2.35 5604.3 2.33
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT, Millions of Dollars, SA Consumer Credit Outstanding Percent Change, Monthly Rate MONEY SUPPLY Money Supply, (M1) Money Supply, (M2) Money Supply, (M3) 1.24 0.53 0.53 -0.67 -0.13 -0.13 4.30 1.29 1.29 0.99 0.95 0.95 0.63 0.59 0.59 1.00 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.57 0.57 0.74 0.57 0.57 1.15 0.66 0.66 2587.50 2581.21 2588.07 2594.47 2592.31 2598.39 2604.95 2611.87 2619.07
INTEREST RATES (IR), Monthly Change IR, Treasury Bill, 6 Month IR, Commercial Paper, 6 Month Yields, US Govt Bond, 1 Year Yields, US Govt Bond, 10 Year -0.21 -0.03 -0.14 -0.09 -0.01 -0.05 -0.11 -0.12 -0.33 0.04 -0.26 -0.20 -0.42 -0.29 -0.49 0.13 -0.12 0.30 -0.13 0.13 -0.07 -0.01 0.06 -0.03 -0.08 0.00 0.12 -0.02 -0.05 -0.01 0.11 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.00 0.00
FOREIGN EXCHANGE VALUE Weighted Average Value of US$ -0.71 2.65 2.42 6.61 -4.94 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.28
STOCK MARKET New York Stock Exchange Index Dividend to (Stock) Price Ratio -6.33 6.05 -0.77 -2.19 -5.69 5.83 -22.27 19.92 -6.92 -15.54 -1.70 -0.43 -0.29 -0.65 0.06 -0.61 0.15 -0.69
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT Consumer Credit Outstanding 0.29 -0.24 0.27 0.25 -0.08 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.28
22
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
FORECAST SUMMARY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Billions of (Chained 2000) Dollars, S.A.A.R. Assumption: The government introduced a $150 billion stimulus package, distributed in the third quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009. to be
Real GDP (i) Expenditure Side GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (ii) Income Side GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (iii) Principal Components est. GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Average Real GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before GDP Deflator (2000=100)
2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 -------------------------- ----------------11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11747.0 0.67 1.04 11747.0 0.67 1.04 11747.0 0.67 1.04 11747.0 0.67 1.04 11684.1 -2.13 0.55 11677.1 -2.36 0.49 11720.0 -0.92 0.85 11693.7 -1.80 0.63 11645.8 -1.30 -0.00 11548.3 -4.34 -0.84 11711.1 -0.30 0.56 11635.1 -1.99 -0.09
--------------------------- ----------------121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.2 0.00 1.97 123.6 1.24 2.28 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.3 3.53 2.19 124.5 2.97 2.37
(i) Expenditure Side PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (ii) Income Side PGDP: Same as (i) % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (iii) Principal Components est. PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Average GDP Deflator % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Nominal GDP
-------------------------- ----------------14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14456.2 4.60 3.62 14459.2 4.69 3.65 14456.2 4.60 3.62 14457.2 4.63 3.63 14448.7 -0.21 2.98 14452.9 -0.18 3.01 14439.4 -0.46 2.91 14447.0 -0.28 2.96 14497.0 1.34 2.45 14388.8 -1.76 1.68 14554.0 3.21 2.85 14479.9 0.91 2.33
(i) Expenditure Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (ii) Income Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (iii) Principal Components est. GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 Average Nominal GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before 14150.8 3.45 4.74
23
Weekly Update on the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets
Monday, November 10, 2008
FORECAST SUMMARY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Billions of (Chained 2000) Dollars, S.A.A.R. Assumption: The government introduced a $150 billion stimulus package, distributed in the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009. to be
Real GDP (i) Expenditure Side GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (ii) Income Side GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (iii) Principal Components est. GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Average Real GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before GDP Deflator (2000=100)
2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 -------------------------- ----------------11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11646.0 0.87 2.54 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11727.4 2.83 2.05 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11720.0 -0.25 0.81 11684.1 -1.22 0.55 11677.1 -1.46 0.49 11720.0 0.00 0.85 11693.7 -0.89 0.63 11645.8 -1.30 -0.00 11548.3 -4.34 -0.84 11711.1 -0.30 0.56 11635.1 -1.99 -0.09
--------------------------- ----------------121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 121.6 2.63 2.25 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 122.0 1.12 2.02 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.2 4.17 2.68 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.8 1.86 2.44 123.2 0.00 1.97 123.6 1.24 2.28 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.6 2.69 2.45 124.3 3.53 2.19 124.5 2.97 2.37
(i) Expenditure Side PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (ii) Income Side PGDP: Same as (i) % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before (iii) Principal Components est. PGDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Average GDP Deflator % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before Nominal GDP
-------------------------- ----------------14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14294.5 4.12 4.05 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14429.2 3.82 3.43 14448.7 0.54 2.98 14452.9 0.66 3.01 14439.4 0.28 2.91 14447.0 0.49 2.96 14497.0 1.34 2.45 14388.8 -1.76 1.68 14554.0 3.21 2.85 14479.9 0.91 2.33
(i) Expenditure Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (ii) Income Side GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 (iii) Principal Components est. GDP$ 14150.8 % Previous Q, A.R. 3.45 % Year before 4.74 Average Nominal GDP % Previous Q, A.R. % Year before 14150.8 3.45 4.74
24