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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2010, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
Timothy Winters / Ian Thomas CB10-151
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES
SEPTEMBER 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for
seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.7 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent
(±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.3 percent (±0.7%) above September 2009. Total sales for the July through September 2010
period were up 5.7 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4
percent (±0.5%)* to +0.7 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from August 2010, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor
vehicle dealers sales were up 19.0 percent (±2.6%) from September 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 14.4 percent (±3.1%)
from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random
sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked
to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65%
of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the
Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
F rom Prev iou s M onth From Prev io us Year
20
2
18
16
14
1 12
10
8
0 6
4
2
-1 0
-2
July Augus t September
Tota l E x A uto Au to G e n M er To ta l E x Au to A uto G en Mer
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for October is scheduled to be released November 15, 2010 at 8:30
a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>.
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail
Trade Survey, and administrative records.)
Not Adjusted Adjusted2
1
NAICS 9 Month Total 2010 2009 2010 2009
Kind of Business
code % Chg. Sep.3 Aug. Jul. Sep. Aug. Sep.3 Aug. Jul. Sep. Aug.
2010 2009 (a) (p) (r) (a) (p) (r) (r) (r)
Retail & food services,
total ………………………………. 3,221,217 6.3 355,786 373,398 372,451 330,260 359,221 367,670 365,403 362,829 342,540 351,128
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) … 2,647,656 5.6 292,208 305,802 303,625 276,548 291,080 304,336 303,052 300,140 288,823 287,815
Retail …..……………………………. 2,866,201 6.7 316,947 332,472 330,812 292,976 319,620 327,835 325,669 323,473 304,417 312,940
GAFO4 (*) (*) (*) 96,160 92,202 85,240 94,276 (*) 95,665 95,331 93,205 92,923
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……. 573,561 9.2 63,578 67,596 68,826 53,712 68,141 63,334 62,351 62,689 53,717 63,313
4411, 4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers . 514,993 10.0 56,735 60,534 61,989 47,499 61,660 56,565 55,689 56,251 47,547 57,093
44111 New car dealers ………………. (*) (*) (*) 49,032 49,911 37,578 50,643 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores…… (*) (*) (*) 7,062 6,837 6,213 6,481 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
442 Furniture & home furn. stores …… 66,918 2.3 7,611 7,863 7,799 7,397 7,599 7,665 7,627 7,601 7,434 7,371
4421 Furniture stores ………………….. (*) (*) (*) 4,264 4,226 4,057 4,169 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
4422 Home furnishings stores ……….. (*) (*) (*) 3,599 3,573 3,340 3,430 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
443 Electronics & appliance stores …… 71,845 3.0 7,825 8,258 8,159 7,400 7,969 8,724 8,598 8,673 8,260 8,219
44311, 13 Appl., T.V. & camera……………… (*) (*) (*) 6,370 6,352 5,884 6,429 (*) 6,642 6,736 6,596 6,621
44312 Computer & software stores……. (*) (*) (*) 1,888 1,807 1,516 1,540 (*) 1,956 1,937 1,664 1,598
444 Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers……………………. 217,124 4.4 23,502 24,018 25,574 22,171 22,337 23,663 23,526 23,399 22,060 22,209
4441 Building mat. & sup. dealers …… (*) (*) (*) 20,174 21,124 19,791 19,705 (*) 19,014 19,169 19,140 19,057
445 Food & beverage stores……………. 436,104 2.3 48,620 49,297 50,432 46,887 48,521 49,558 49,377 48,516 48,253 47,957
4451 Grocery stores ………………….. 390,610 2.3 43,501 44,074 44,922 41,895 43,344 44,253 44,074 43,277 43,058 42,746
4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores ……… (*) (*) (*) 3,462 3,683 3,269 3,413 (*) 3,472 3,410 3,377 3,383
446 Health & personal care stores ……. 194,348 3.2 21,624 21,865 21,614 20,814 20,728 22,224 22,108 21,943 21,414 21,108
44611 Pharmacies & drug stores ……… (*) (*) (*) 18,433 18,281 17,876 17,692 (*) 18,771 18,597 18,334 18,146
447 Gasoline stations …………………… 322,027 17.7 35,521 37,788 38,189 32,673 35,153 35,664 35,515 35,068 32,970 32,761
448 Clothing & clothing accessories
stores …………………………….….. 150,909 4.4 16,661 18,334 17,246 15,964 17,995 18,124 18,160 18,077 17,564 17,602
44811 Men's clothing stores …………… (*) (*) (*) 582 610 640 608 (*) (S) (S) (S) (S)
44812 Women's clothing stores ……….. (*) (*) (*) 2,867 2,762 2,864 2,878 (*) 3,008 3,015 2,983 2,995
44814 Family clothing stores …………… (*) (*) (*) 7,335 6,983 6,067 7,179 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
4482 Shoe stores ……………………… (*) (*) (*) 2,851 2,233 2,012 2,758 (*) 2,320 2,281 2,216 2,215
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book &
music stores………………………… 60,925 3.7 6,708 8,232 6,832 6,681 8,074 7,221 7,208 7,192 7,077 7,064
452 General merchandise stores………. 432,031 3.0 46,189 50,010 49,195 44,535 49,192 50,940 50,919 50,650 49,669 49,445
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)…….. 126,893 -0.7 13,791 14,954 14,091 13,622 15,477 15,488 15,500 15,419 15,616 15,701
4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)5…… (*) (*) (*) 15,275 14,393 13,944 15,843 (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
4529 Other general merch. stores…. .. (*) (*) (*) 35,056 35,104 30,913 33,715 (*) 35,419 35,231 34,053 33,744
45291 Warehouse clubs &
supercenters…………………. (*) (*) (*) 30,905 30,880 27,170 29,993 (*) 30,998 30,849 29,989 29,755
45299 All oth. gen. merch. stores…… (*) (*) (*) 4,151 4,224 3,743 3,722 (*) 4,421 4,382 4,064 3,989
453 Miscellaneous store retailers …….. 87,037 5.9 10,205 10,236 10,234 9,325 9,318 10,213 10,070 10,015 9,324 9,308
454 Nonstore retailers ………………….. 253,372 13.1 28,903 28,975 26,712 25,417 24,593 30,505 30,210 29,650 26,675 26,583
4541 Elect. shopping & m/o houses …. (*) (*) (*) 22,536 20,627 19,082 18,631 (*) 23,067 22,543 19,919 19,799
722 Food services & drinking places … 355,016 2.6 38,839 40,926 41,639 37,284 39,601 39,835 39,734 39,356 38,123 38,188
(*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.
(NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics
(2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally
adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found
on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail
(3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample
(4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532).
(5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.
Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error,
sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
Table 2. Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey,
Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)
Percent Change1
Jul. 2010
Sep. 2010 Advance Aug. 2010 Preliminary through
NAICS Kind of Business from -- from -- Sep. 2010 from --
code Apr. 2010 Jul. 2009
Aug. 2010 Sep. 2009 Jul. 2010 Aug. 2009 through through
(p) (r) (r) (r) Jun. 2010 Sep. 2009
Retail & food services,
total ……………………………….. 0.6 7.3 0.7 4.1 0.6 5.7
Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts) …. 0.4 5.4 1.0 5.3 0.6 5.3
Retail ………………………..………. 0.7 7.7 0.7 4.1 0.6 5.9
441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers ……… 1.6 17.9 -0.5 -1.5 0.5 7.7
4411, 4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers … 1.6 19.0 -1.0 -2.5 0.3 7.8
442 Furniture & home furn. stores ……… 0.5 3.1 0.3 3.5 0.4 3.1
443 Electronics & appliance stores ……. 1.5 5.6 -0.9 4.6 0.7 6.0
444 Building material & garden eq. &
supplies dealers……………………… 0.6 7.3 0.5 5.9 -3.0 5.9
445 Food & beverage stores……………… 0.4 2.7 1.8 3.0 0.7 2.3
4451 Grocery stores ……………………. 0.4 2.8 1.8 3.1 0.9 2.4
446 Health & personal care stores ……… 0.5 3.8 0.8 4.7 1.5 4.1
447 Gasoline stations ……………………. 0.4 8.2 1.3 8.4 0.3 9.3
448 Clothing & clothing accessories
stores ……………………….………… -0.2 3.2 0.5 3.2 -0.2 3.5
451 Sporting goods, hobby, book &
music stores…………………………. 0.2 2.0 0.2 2.0 -0.1 2.8
452 General merchandise stores………… 0.0 2.6 0.5 3.0 0.6 3.0
4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.)……… -0.1 -0.8 0.5 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0
453 Miscellaneous store retailers ……… 1.4 9.5 0.5 8.2 2.5 8.8
454 Nonstore retailers ……………………. 1.0 14.4 1.9 13.6 3.1 13.3
722 Food services & drinking places …. 0.3 4.5 1.0 4.0 0.8 3.8
(p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report.
Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error,
sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for
Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by
estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the
service firms located in the United States. Each month, previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed
questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad
5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual
Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and
approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and
sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at:
change in sales from the previous month is estimated using http://www.census.gov/retail.
only units that have reported data for both the current and
U.S. Department of Commerce FIRST-CLASS MAIL
U.S. Census Bureau POSTAGE & FEES PAID
Washington, D.C. 20233
Bureau of the Census
PERMIT NO. G-58
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore
survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in
the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a
Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given.
that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x
frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that
because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information
sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions
given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling drawn from the estimates.
variation.
Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the
The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur
the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail
the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other
standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although
±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau
interval is –0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then employs quality control procedures throughout the process to
one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent minimize this type of error.
Table 3. Estim ated M ea sure s of Sam pling Variability a nd Revision to Adv ance Estima te s S ep 2010
(E stim a tes are sh own as pe rce nts and a re ba se d o n da ta fro m th e Ad va nc e M onthl y R eta il Trad e Su rv ey a nd M o nthly R eta il Tra de S urve y)
( 1)
M edian stand ard erro r for R evision fo r m on th -
( 2)
M edian Percent ch ang e to -m on th chan ge
(1 )
N A ICS C od e Ki nd o f B usi nes s CV fo r Previo us M o . Previo us Q tr. C u rrent M o. M ed ian
C urr ent M o. to to to sam e Averag e abso lute
(%) C u rrent M o. C u rrent Qtr. Mo . L ast Yr. revisio n r evisio n
R e tail & food se rv ic es ,
tota l … … … … …… .. … …… … … … …. 0 .6 0 .3 0 .2 0. 4 0.0 0. 2
To ta l (excl. m o to r veh icle & pa rts) . . 0 .6 0 .3 0 .2 0. 3 0.1 0. 1
Re tai l … .. …… … … … … …… … … .. 0 .6 0 .3 0 .2 0. 4 0.0 0. 2
44 1 M otor v ehi cl e & pa rts d ea lers … …. . 2 .2 1 .2 0 .5 1. 4 -0.3 0. 7
4411, 4412 Au to & o th er m o to r veh . de alers . 2 .5 1 .3 0 .6 1. 6 -0.4 0. 6
44 2 F urniture & hom e fu rn. s tore s… … . 2 .8 1 .6 0 .8 1. 6 0.1 0. 7
44 3 El ec tron ic s & a ppl ian ce s to re s …. . 1 .6 0 .6 0 .3 1. 0 0.1 0. 3
44 4 B ui ldin g m ate ri al & g arde n e q. &… .
s uppl ies d ea lers …… … … … …… … 2 .8 1 .4 0 .9 1. 5 0.3 0. 4
44 5 F ood & bev e ra ge sto re s… … … …… . 1 .1 0 .2 0 .2 0. 5 -0.1 0. 2
44 51 G roce ry st ore s … … … …… … … .. 1 .2 0 .2 0 .2 0. 5 -0.1 0. 2
44 6 H e alth & pe rs ona l c are store s … … 1 .9 0 .4 0 .3 0. 7 0.0 0. 4
44 7 G as oli ne sta tion s … … … … …… … .. 2 .5 0 .5 0 .3 1. 1 0.4 0. 2
44 8 C lo thing & clo thin g a cc es so rie s
s tore s … …… … … … …… … … … …. . 2 .5 0 .6 0 .6 1. 0 0.2 0. 6
45 1 Sp orti ng g oods , hobb y, book &
m usi c s tores … … …… … … … …… .. 3 .4 1 .9 1 .0 2. 2 0.1 0. 3
45 2 G en eral me rc ha ndis e sto re s… … … . 0 .3 0 .1 0 .1 0. 1 0.0 0. 2
4521 D ep a rtm en t store s (e x. L .D .)… … 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 -0.1 0. 1
45 3 M isc e lla neo us sto re re ta ile rs … … .. 3 .1 2 .1 1 .5 2. 5 0.4 1. 4
45 4 N on store re tai lers … …… … … … …. . 2 .0 0 .8 0 .8 1. 9 0.2 0. 5
72 2 F ood se rv ic es & drink in g pl ac es .. 1 .8 0 .7 0 .6 1. 0 0.1 0. 3
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation or holiday or trading-day differences. Medians are
based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for
the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most
recent 12 months.
Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be
found at http://www.census.gov/retail
